Not a Rookie: Hunter Pence

by John Sickels on Feb 4, 2008 6:05 PM EST in News

Hunter Pence had an outstanding rookie season last year, hitting .322/.360/.539 for the Astros in 108 games. His career minor league marks are .303/.376/.554 in 333 career games, so he hit about as well in the majors as he did in the minors. What does the future hold?

A second round pick in 2004 out of the University of Texas-Arlington, Pence adjusted easily to pro ball, hitting .296/.369/.518 in his pro debut in the New York-Penn League. I gave him a Grade B in the 2005 book, noting his across the board offensive skills. He had a great year at the A-ball level in '05, hitting .338/.413/.652 in the Sally League and .305/.374/.490 in the Carolina League. I gave him a Grade B+ in the '06 book, noting that he might need adjustment time in Double-A but that I liked his bat a lot. I ranked him as the Number 35 hitting prospect in baseball.

His '06 season was a success in Double-A, with a .282/.356/.529 mark. I bumped him up to Grade A- in the book last year, ranking him as the Number 11 hitting prospect in baseball. This was a bit higher than some analysts ranked him, but I was impressed by what I saw in the Texas League.

How will Pence follow up his excellent major league debut? His BB/K ratio wasn't terrific with 26 walks against 95 strikeouts, and a bit of tightening in the strike zone judgment department would help him. Bill James has him projected at .306/.357/.538 on the season. Ron Shandler has him at .294/.343/.504. ZIPS has him at .292/.343/.510. All very similar, with James a bit more optimistic, as is usual for his projection system.

What do I think? This is an easy one for me, I think he'll keep hitting. But will he maintain at about the same level as he is now? All three of the projection systems above show him not hitting QUITE as well in '08 as in '07, likely from blending his actual '07 output with his MLEs from 2006.

My own numbers are .303/.351/.503. I think there is a chance he could exceed that.

The question now is, when he gets into his late 20s, does Pence stay where he is now (which is really good) or does he take a further step forward into genuine superstardom?
Most scouts would doubt the latter possibility. Many have never been comfortable with his unorthodox stance at the plate. But it works, and if he can make even a marginal improvement in his plate discipline, such a breakthrough is possible. Even if he stays where he is now, he is one of the few things that Houston fans can be happy about.

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Good info

I like the not a rookie postings. keep them comming.

by jwjc11 on Feb 4, 2008 7:57 PM EST reply actions

Rookie Feature

I agree John. This rookie feature is great.

On Pence, I would love to hear your answer to the question posed - "The question now is, when he gets into his late 20s, does Pence stay where he is now (which is really good) or does he take a further step forward into genuine superstardom?"

by Lphizzle on Feb 4, 2008 9:59 PM EST up reply actions

Batting order

Good stuff John!

I have heard that Pence is set up to bat 6th in the line-up for 2008. He had the 2nd best OBP on the team last year.
Wouldn't it make sense to move him up in the order?

Ted Williams: .406

by bodyiq on Feb 4, 2008 8:12 PM EST reply actions

I doubt Matsui

is good enough to keep him out of the 2 spot next year.

Cecil Cooper said he wanted to bat him 3rd, then the Astros signed Matsui and Tejada. After that Wade mentioned Pence would hit 6th, later confirmed by Cooper. If you think a player should hit 3rd why is it even a thought to then decide to hit him 6th 2 weeks later?

I reckon it is sorted out in ST.

My first mistake was assuming you knew what I was talking about.

by Shamus on Feb 4, 2008 8:20 PM EST up reply actions

Pence is one of my favorite players in baseball

I have said before and I still think even though he will be 25 for most of next year I think his physical projectability is more like a 20 year old. The only thing in my mind that keeps Pence from becoming a true superstar is plate discipline. I really think his potential is up with top 5-tool superstars.

One of the only reasons to watch the Astros day to day.

My first mistake was assuming you knew what I was talking about.

by Shamus on Feb 4, 2008 8:16 PM EST reply actions

I was most impressed...

...when Pence was asked to leadoff, he seemed to really take a different approach at the plate. I watched a couple of those games, and he seemed like a completely different hitter. I know it was only 64 plate appearances that he spent in that role, but he did draw 7 walks during that time.

by BobbyMac on Feb 4, 2008 9:06 PM EST reply actions

Carlos Gomez

That actually reminds me of what the Mets did with Gomez in AA. They wanted him to become a middle of the order hitter (whether people buy that or not is another question) but they stuck him in leadoff because they knew they needed him to learn some more plate discipline.

Actually, ended up backfiring. He had a whole lot of problems hitting leadoff but when they gave up and moved him into a more run producing spot in the lineup, he started getting hot.

by Lunkwill Fook on Feb 5, 2008 10:46 AM EST up reply actions

style

I think it is harder to say that he will take the next step, if only because of his batting style.

Without that perfect form, it becomes more difficult to project constant improvement, and it makes the presence of some hole in his swing seem the more likely.

That said, he is one of those players who has the chance to shift the paradigm of what a great hitter looks like.

by alamosweet on Feb 5, 2008 9:09 AM EST reply actions

I had to trade him

away last year to win my league. It hurt. Had to trade Gallardo away too.

No fun.

by Galt on Feb 5, 2008 10:12 AM EST reply actions

Ha

I had to trade him also, fairly early in the year, to win mine by getting Peavy for the year. Story has a happy ending because I got him back this offseason.

"The Dodgers won't win a playoff series until the Cool-a-Coo returns." -mckeeno

by PujolsJunkie on Feb 5, 2008 10:52 AM EST up reply actions