Best Lineup In 2008
I was just wondering who this community thinks has the best lineup in baseball this year. Also, I think that it is important to remember that the best lineup isn't necessarily the one that will score the most runs (because of park factors, etc.). That said, I'm including the top five teams in terms of runs scored from last year - and of course you can write in your other vote. Here are those team's projected lineups for 2008 (according to CBSSports):
NY Yankees (2007 Ranking: #1 - 968 Runs Scored):
1 Johnny Damon LF
2 Derek Jeter SS
3 Bobby Abreu RF
4 Alex Rodriguez 3B
5 Hideki Matsui DH
6 Jorge Posada C
7 Jason Giambi 1B
8 Robinson Cano 2B
9 Melky Cabrera CF
Philadelphia Phillies (2007 Ranking: #2 - 892 Runs Scored):
1 Jimmy Rollins SS
2 Shane Victorino CF
3 Chase Utley 2B
4 Ryan Howard 1B
5 Pat Burrell LF
6 Geoff Jenkins RF
7 Pedro Feliz 3B
8 Carlos Ruiz C
Detroit Tigers (2007 Ranking: #3 - 887 Runs Scored):
1 Curtis Granderson CF
2 Placido Polanco 2B
3 Miguel Cabrera 3B
4 Magglio Ordonez RF
5 Gary Sheffield DH
6 Carlos Guillen 1B
7 Edgar Renteria SS
8 Jacque Jones LF
9 Ivan Rodriguez C
Boston Red Sox (2007 Ranking: #4 - 867 Runs Scored):
1 Jacoby Ellsbury CF
2 Dustin Pedroia 2B
3 David Ortiz DH
4 Manny Ramirez LF
5 Mike Lowell 3B
6 Kevin Youkilis 1B
7 J.D. Drew RF
8 Jason Varitek C
9 Julio Lugo SS
Colorado Rockies (2007 Rank: #5 - 860 Runs Scored):
1 Willy Taveras CF
2 Todd Helton 1B
3 Matt Holliday LF
4 Garrett Atkins 3B
5 Troy Tulowitzki SS
6 Brad Hawpe RF
7 Yorvit Torrealba C
8 Ian Stewart 2B
0 recs |
41 comments
Comments
I hate to write this as a Red Sox fan
by dlpme77 on Feb 21, 2008 2:55 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
no way..
Damon-done
Jeter-Singles hitter
A-Rod- BEAST
Posdada-had a career year coming back to earn
Giambi-done
Matsui-injuries, decent
Melky-below average
Cano-Great
Abreu-good
by Maine Man on Feb 21, 2008 3:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
nice to see some objectivity
by RollingWave on Feb 22, 2008 5:26 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Tigers over Yankees definitely
The Yankees got career years from Arod and Posada, at levels which in no way can continue.
They also have 2 starters younger than 33. David Ortiz would be the third youngest player in their lineup. Jeter, Damon, Giambi, Matsui, Posada, and Abreu are all on the decline. Really only Melky and Cano have the possibility of improving over last year.
For the Red Sox, Lowell definitely has the liklihood of decline. Manny is old, so maybe he'll decline from last year, but I've heard glowing reports, so it's possible he comes in somewhere in between '06 and '07. The same argument could be made for Giambi or Damon, but I haven't really heard anything glowing about either guy, and Manny's performance fell off a cliff last year, so I think it's more likely that Manny rebounds than Giambi or Damon.
But in regards to where can they improve: Drew, and Lugo put up career worst numbers. Absolutely dreadful. They are all still relatively young, so you have to expect a rebound from those guys.
Crisp was pitiful and Ellsbury can't possibly perform worse than what Crisp did last year.
Ortiz had a knee injury last year which has been remedied (and he still had a career best OPS - he just lost some power). If he maintains his improved contact and plate discipline, he could be on line for a career year. Pedroia could decline, but he could also improve like I'm factoring in for Cano and Melky.
Youkilis is what he is.
So recaping
Yankees.
Likely improvement: None
Potential improvement: Cano, Melky
Potential regression: Everyone else
Likely regression: Posada, Arod
Red Sox
Likely improvement: Drew, Lugo, CF
Potential improvement: Pedroia, Manny, Ortiz
Potential regression: Varitek, Manny
Likely regression: Lowell
by Galt on Feb 21, 2008 3:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Nice Write up
Ortiz - Agreed, will have a monster year. No injuries (I hope!) and will still Rake.
Lowell - Decline, but I don't see it being as bad as everyone else...290/350/450???
Pedroia - Will still hit, I think he can maintain.
Manny - Will not do as poor (power) as last year, I think he is going to hit between 25-30. Yes he is older, but I have read that he is working to get into shape... (Contract year soon?) Though now he is getting into a contract issue/talk with the sox, so who the F knows.
AROD - No way does he decline. Dude is nice and will rake again... but when do we see the decline?
Cano - Numbers dropped a bit last year, but did play in 40 more games. I see him having a year 320-350/490 with increased power... 20-24 hr.
by ChrisRef19 on Feb 21, 2008 4:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I could see an argument for the Tigers...
As for the Sawx, they return almost the same team that scored over 100 fewer runs than the Yankees despite playing in the most favorable offensive ballpark in the league (per ESPN's mlb park factors). While replacing Crisp with Ellsbury is likely an improvement, I am not sure it will be as significant as everybody is predicting. In his worst season last year, Crisp put up a .712 OPS. In his minor league career, Ellsbury's OPS was .814. If you think that Ellsbury will be hitting .350 this season with an OPS over .900 like he did in his call-up, then I have a bridge to sell you.
As for predicting bounce-back seasons for Drew, Manny and Lugo, that is very possible, but the same can be said for the Yankees. Damon reported to camp out of shape in 2007 and was banged up all year, and he was reportedly considering retirement. He is reportedly in much better shape this year, and focused and motivated. Abreu had an absolutely lousy first half of the season, leading to an OPS more than 50 points lower than his career worst. Jason Giambi was a non-factor for the Yankees last year, and there is a chance he could be healthy and motivated in his contract year (like Manny). And I don't think the Yankees could have come up with a worse 1b platoon in terms of offense than Mientkiewicz/Phelps/Phillips. Matsui, like Ortiz, also had a bad knee and had it taken care of in the offseason. Several of those guys should be in the potential improvement category, because like Manny and Ortiz, they all had sub career average years with external factors (in addition to aging) that affected their performances. While you may not be hearing anything "glowing" about Abreu, Damon, or Giambi, that may be because you are too busy reading about Manny and Ortiz. There has been plenty of discussion about Girardi's emphasis on fitness, and the Yankee players, Damon in particular, being in better shape.
As for regressions on the Yankees, I will give you Posada, who in a contract year put up numbers that were above his career line (though only the BA was particularly high). As for A-Rod, while last season was amazing, he is still in his prime and has had seasons like that before, so 2007 was not a major deviation from his career numbers, and it is possible that he could maintain that type of production, or at least something similar.
In conclusion, barring significant injuries to major Yankee run producers, I don't see Boston making up a 100-run deficit as their and the Yankee lineups stand. I am even ignoring the premise of this question as looking independent of park factors, which would also favor the Yankees given that Fenway is a better hitting environment. Even if the improvements/regressions go as Galt predicted (which is very optimistic from Boston's perspective), 100 runs is still a huge gap.
by lemonjello on Feb 21, 2008 4:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
+1
I agree that the 2008 margin will be significantly closer, but barring injuries, it is extremely unlikely that the Sox will outscore the Yankees.
by patsfan on Feb 21, 2008 5:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Ortiz
Arod had a historical season. He's immense and is clearly the best on both teams. But there's no way he's repeating that season again. None.
by Galt on Feb 21, 2008 5:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
oops replied to wrong guy
Damon may have a bounceback, I thought he was better last year. Corrected. I could see an argument with him on the "improvement list" that's fair.
No, Ellsbury isn't going to have a .900 OPS; probably not even an .800 OPS, but he'll better than Crisp, that's for sure. And he's also much faster and will create runs by running.
Drew, like Abreu has been in a steady decline for a couple years, but he fell off a cliff last year. he (like Manny) should rebound to about halfway between '06 and '07.
Arod had one of the best offensive years in history. As great as he is, if he merely replicates '06, it's a pretty big drop-off
by Galt on Feb 21, 2008 5:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
ortiz
he also had a pretty big spike in BA last year as well
by bmxstreetrider86 on Feb 21, 2008 6:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
oritz
and cano is just as likely to improve as any redsox player
by bmxstreetrider86 on Feb 21, 2008 5:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
and then
1B- Redsox
2B- Yankees
3B- Yankees
SS- Yankees
RF- Yankees
LF- Redsox
CF- wash
DH- Redsox
i got 5-3 yankees, with one wash.
by bmxstreetrider86 on Feb 21, 2008 5:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
if only
by Galt on Feb 21, 2008 5:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
not only do the yankees
while the redsox have one massive lead at DH, one sizeable in LF
plus the yankees got essentially no production from 1B and DH last year, and still outscored the redsox by 100 runs
id be SHOCKED if the redsox outscored the yankees this year
by bmxstreetrider86 on Feb 21, 2008 6:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
sizeable?
And the delta between Ortiz and Damon is greater than the difference between Arod and Lowell.
by Galt on Feb 21, 2008 7:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Jeter >>> Lugo
Career numbers:
Jeter: 317/388/462 122 OPS+
Lugo: 271/333/395 88 OPS+
If that's not the definition of massive, I'm not sure what is. 55 pts of OBP + 67 pts of SLG = massive.
by jc3 on Feb 21, 2008 9:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Career?
The point is: right now, admittedly discounting Lugo's fluke season last year, and looking more at his last 3-4 years of production compared to Jeter's last 3-4 years of production.
Over those years, Jeter has an edge of about .50 OPS points.
Certainly Jeter is better than Lugo, but to say that it's comparable to the difference between Damon and Ortiz is absurd. Like I said, it's about equivalent to the difference between Cano and Pedroia. Not an especially huge, earth shattering difference.
by Galt on Feb 22, 2008 12:17 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Huh?
Ooook, I buy that.
by RollingWave on Feb 22, 2008 5:30 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
OK, I will play your game
- 292/352/471 vs. 275/338/396 = 89 OPS pts
- 309/389/450 vs. 295/362/403 = 74 OPS pts
- 343/417/483 vs. 278/341/421 = 138
- 322/388/452 vs. 237/294/349 = 197
While I will agree that Ortiz' difference in OPS is greater, Lugo is not even close to Jeter as an offensive player. Jeter, while getting older, will almost certainly age better than Lugo, who was never that good to begin with.
by jc3 on Feb 22, 2008 7:07 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Correction
by jc3 on Feb 22, 2008 10:03 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Fluke season
For the Dodgers in the second half of '06, he was abysmal, even worse than he was for the Red Sox in '07.
Which is strange, because he was in the midst of the best season of his career immediately before he was traded, with an OPS+ of 124 in over 300 plate appearances. Looking at his career numbers, he's consistently in the 80-100 OPS+ range, and he averages out to 88.
I don't see how you can make a case that his one fine half a season in TB in '06 isn't more of a fluke.
by jumanjifan01 on Feb 22, 2008 6:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Lugo...
That said, and with the normal disclaimer that I hate OPS as a stat, I think that better than his 88 career OPS+ could have been expected in 2007. In 2001-2002, he was having "personal problems", if memory serves me. In every other season, he was at 90+ for that stat, and for a shortstop, that's not too bad. And, even with those 2 bad seasons, he was at 92 career OPS+ entering the season. Considering AL shortstops had an OPS+ of 88 on average in 2007, he should have been a somewhat above-average hitter for the position.
Anyway, it will be interesting to see how seriously Lowrie pushes him this year, and if the team considers an in-season change. My gut tells me it mostly depends on their confidence in Lowrie's ability to play SS at the major-league level.
by BobbyMac on Feb 22, 2008 10:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
2b?
It's interesting to see CF as a "wash"... I am sure most Red Sox fans would disagree, and even I'd give them a slight edge, but Ellsbury certainly gets too much hype (someone in another blog today wrote that he was destined for the HOF, seriously).
I also am not sure that RF is a clear-cut Yanks advantage. Drew has a monster career stat line.
All that being said, the deltas at SS and 3b (and possibly C) are HUGE, and that isn't captured in a simplistic "advantage" tally like this.
by BobbyMac on Feb 22, 2008 4:08 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
well
if he even had an average first half of the season, his numbers would look alot better.
as for CF offensively, PECOTA projected them to have extremely similar batting lines next season, with melky besting ellsbury by .006 points of OPS
by bmxstreetrider86 on Feb 22, 2008 3:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Ellsbury v. Melky
by BobbyMac on Feb 22, 2008 4:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
If the Cubs
Roberts
Fukudome
Lee
Soriano
Aram
Soto
DeRosa in a utility role
Anything out of Pie would be an added bonus.
by slurve on Feb 21, 2008 3:14 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
unfortunately
Fukudome should be batting leadoff (unless they get Roberts)
Should be:
Theriot
Fukudome
Lee
Aramis
Soriano
blah
blah
blah
by Galt on Feb 21, 2008 3:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed
by slurve on Feb 21, 2008 4:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Les Tigres
Also, FWIW, Jacque Jones and Thames are expected to platoon in LF. Jones's career line against RHPs is .294/.342/.483 and Thames's is .263/.333/.512 versus LHPs.
So, just using back of the envelope numbers, Jaqmar Thaones could put up a .284/.339/.493 line. Not bad for your #8 hitter (and with good OF defense).
by Yakker on Feb 21, 2008 3:36 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I am going to petition whoever I marry
thats all that need to be said.
by Terry Ryan Jr on Feb 21, 2008 4:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Ian Stewart 2B...
The favorite at this point has to be Jayson Nix, with Barmes, Giles and Baker having a better shot than Stewart.
by DenverBears on Feb 21, 2008 3:51 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Def. Agree
by Dfarth on Feb 21, 2008 3:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You think that Barmes has a better shot?
by Terry Ryan Jr on Feb 21, 2008 4:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
yes, I do...
- Hurdle seems to love Barmes and will give him every opportunity to take the position.
- Barmes should be able to handle the position defensively, while I'm skeptical that Stewart will be able to.
- I don't think the Rockies are that serious about giving Stewart a shot at 2B after a few months of working at it.
by DenverBears on Feb 21, 2008 4:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Nix
by jwjc11 on Feb 21, 2008 11:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I won't give you numbers...
by DenverBears on Feb 22, 2008 7:18 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
This lineup is going to suprise some people
Mark Kotsay
Chipper Jones
Mark Teixeria
Brian McCann
Jeff Francoeur
Matt Diaz
Yunel Escobar
Now it may look a little different at the beginning of the season but it's going to be a good one.
by Jay212033 on Feb 21, 2008 5:32 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
81 Runs.
Maybe Jason Giambi really is done.
But the Yanks exceeded every other team by at least 81 runs in 2007.
I agree that the gap will close, but that's too many runs to make up... and I think they will be better at 1b/dh this year.
by BobbyMac on Feb 22, 2008 4:50 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
For what it's worth
As for the Tigers, people need to realize a few thing.
- Magglio is not going to hit .363 again, he's a solid bet for .900 OPS sure, but over 1.010? really?
- Edgar Rentaria's career line = Shawn Casey 07, so if you think that's a mega upgrade there, I think you'll end up pretty wrong.
- Rentaria also happens to never had 3 strait season hitting above league average. he's now at 2.
- Do you know who the last person to hit 20 triple or more in two strait season was? Sam Crawford, who played before world war 1 do you think Granderson can hit 23 Triple again this year?
- did you realize that Jacque Jones 07 OPS+ = Melky Cabrera?
- Planco is a good bet to remain in .300 territory for awhile, but hit .340 require some luck no matter how little you whiff. unless your name is Ichiro Suzuki.
The gap the Yankee had last year is HUGE. it's not impossible to think that the Tigers might slip past them . but it's not exactly something to bank on.
by RollingWave on Feb 22, 2008 5:49 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

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