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Best Lineup In 2008

I was just wondering who this community thinks has the best lineup in baseball this year.  Also, I think that it is important to remember that the best lineup isn't necessarily the one that will score the most runs (because of park factors, etc.).  That said, I'm including the top five teams in terms of runs scored from last year - and of course you can write in your other vote.  Here are those team's projected lineups for 2008 (according to CBSSports):

NY Yankees (2007 Ranking: #1 - 968 Runs Scored):

1      Johnny Damon      LF
2     Derek Jeter     SS
3     Bobby Abreu     RF    
4     Alex Rodriguez     3B    
5     Hideki Matsui     DH    
6     Jorge Posada     C    
7     Jason Giambi     1B            
8     Robinson Cano     2B    
9     Melky Cabrera     CF

Philadelphia Phillies (2007 Ranking: #2 - 892 Runs Scored):

1      Jimmy Rollins   SS
2     Shane Victorino CF    
3     Chase Utley     2B    
4     Ryan Howard     1B    
5     Pat Burrell     LF    
6     Geoff Jenkins     RF    
7     Pedro Feliz     3B    
8     Carlos Ruiz     C

Detroit Tigers (2007 Ranking: #3 - 887 Runs Scored):

1      Curtis Granderson  CF
2     Placido Polanco 2B    
3     Miguel Cabrera     3B         
4     Magglio Ordonez RF    
5     Gary Sheffield     DH    
6     Carlos Guillen     1B    
7     Edgar Renteria     SS    
8     Jacque Jones     LF    
9     Ivan Rodriguez     C

Boston Red Sox (2007 Ranking: #4 - 867 Runs Scored):

1      Jacoby Ellsbury CF
2     Dustin Pedroia     2B    
3     David Ortiz     DH    
4     Manny Ramirez     LF    
5     Mike Lowell     3B    
6     Kevin Youkilis     1B    
7     J.D. Drew     RF            
8     Jason Varitek     C    
9     Julio Lugo     SS

Colorado Rockies (2007 Rank: #5 - 860 Runs Scored):

1      Willy Taveras      CF
2     Todd Helton     1B    
3     Matt Holliday     LF    
4     Garrett Atkins     3B    
5     Troy Tulowitzki SS
6     Brad Hawpe     RF    
7     Yorvit Torrealba C    
8     Ian Stewart     2B

Poll
Who Will Have The Best Lineup In 2008
Detroit Tigers
136 votes
Boston Red Sox
21 votes
Colorado Rockies
6 votes
Other (Post It)
16 votes
New York Yankees
48 votes
Philadelphia Phillies
10 votes

237 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs  |  Comment 41 comments

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Comments

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I hate to write this as a Red Sox fan
but the Yanks still have the best line-up. I would love to vote for Detroit, but LF is a BIG if. That is the one spot I'd rather have Johnny Damon than Jacque Jones. But it is very VERY close with Detroit. I also think Cleveland deserves a mention too

by dlpme77 on Feb 21, 2008 2:55 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

no way..
the yankee lineup is old, and no where near that of the Tigers lineup..

Damon-done
Jeter-Singles hitter
A-Rod- BEAST
Posdada-had a career year coming back to earn
Giambi-done
Matsui-injuries, decent
Melky-below average
Cano-Great
Abreu-good

by Maine Man on Feb 21, 2008 3:16 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

nice to see some objectivity
Jeter is such a single's hitter that he out slugged Jose Reyes last year .

by RollingWave on Feb 22, 2008 5:26 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Tigers over Yankees definitely
Red Sox over Yankees too.

The Yankees got career years from Arod and Posada, at levels which in no way can continue.

They also have 2 starters younger than 33.  David Ortiz would be the third youngest player in their lineup.  Jeter, Damon, Giambi, Matsui, Posada, and Abreu are all on the decline.  Really only Melky and Cano have the possibility of improving over last year.

For the Red Sox, Lowell definitely has the liklihood of decline.  Manny is old, so maybe he'll decline from last year, but I've heard glowing reports, so it's possible he comes in somewhere in between '06 and '07.  The same argument could be made for Giambi or Damon, but I haven't really heard anything glowing about either guy, and Manny's performance fell off a cliff last year, so I think it's more likely that Manny rebounds than Giambi or Damon.

But in regards to where can they improve:  Drew, and Lugo put up career worst numbers.  Absolutely dreadful.  They are all still relatively young, so you have to expect a rebound from those guys.  

Crisp was pitiful and Ellsbury can't possibly perform worse than what Crisp did last year.  

Ortiz had a knee injury last year which has been remedied (and he still had a career best OPS - he just lost some power).  If he maintains his improved contact and plate discipline, he could be on line for a career year.  Pedroia could decline, but he could also improve like I'm factoring in for Cano and Melky.  

Youkilis is what he is.

So recaping
Yankees.  
Likely improvement: None
Potential improvement:  Cano, Melky
Potential regression: Everyone else
Likely regression:  Posada, Arod

Red Sox
Likely improvement:  Drew, Lugo, CF
Potential improvement:  Pedroia, Manny, Ortiz
Potential regression:  Varitek, Manny
Likely regression: Lowell

by Galt on Feb 21, 2008 3:24 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Nice Write up
Galt... nice write up...  I just wanted to throw my 2 cents into some of the fun...

Ortiz - Agreed, will have a monster year. No injuries (I hope!) and will still Rake.

Lowell - Decline, but I don't see it being as bad as everyone else...290/350/450???

Pedroia - Will still hit, I think he can maintain.  

Manny - Will not do as poor (power) as last year, I think he is going to hit between 25-30. Yes he is older, but I have read that he is working to get into shape... (Contract year soon?)  Though now he is getting into a contract issue/talk with the sox, so who the F knows.

AROD - No way does he decline.  Dude is nice and will rake again... but when do we see the decline?

Cano - Numbers dropped a bit last year, but did play in 40 more games.  I see him having a year 320-350/490 with increased power... 20-24 hr.

by ChrisRef19 on Feb 21, 2008 4:40 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I could see an argument for the Tigers...
but not Boston.  Detroit is adding a top 5 offensive player in Cabrera and Edgar Renteria to replace Brandon Inge and Sean Casey.  That is a significant upgrade, and I would expect them to score more runs than they did last year.  While I still expect the Yankees to have the best offense in the AL, Detroit's additions could certainly close the gap.

As for the Sawx, they return almost the same team that scored over 100 fewer runs than the Yankees despite playing in the most favorable offensive ballpark in the league (per ESPN's mlb park factors).  While replacing Crisp with Ellsbury is likely an improvement, I am not sure it will be as significant as everybody is predicting.  In his worst season last year, Crisp put up a .712 OPS.  In his minor league career, Ellsbury's OPS was .814.  If you think that Ellsbury will be hitting .350 this season with an OPS over .900 like he did in his call-up, then I have a bridge to sell you.

As for predicting bounce-back seasons for Drew, Manny and Lugo, that is very possible, but the same can be said for the Yankees.  Damon reported to camp out of shape in 2007 and was banged up all year, and he was reportedly considering retirement.  He is reportedly in much better shape this year, and focused and motivated.  Abreu had an absolutely lousy first half of the season, leading to an OPS more than 50 points lower than his career worst.  Jason Giambi was a non-factor for the Yankees last year, and there is a chance he could be healthy and motivated in his contract year (like Manny).  And I don't think the Yankees could have come up with a worse 1b platoon in terms of offense than Mientkiewicz/Phelps/Phillips.  Matsui, like Ortiz, also had a bad knee and had it taken care of in the offseason.  Several of those guys should be in the potential improvement category, because like Manny and Ortiz,  they all had sub career average years with external factors (in addition to aging) that affected their performances.  While you may not be hearing anything "glowing" about Abreu, Damon, or Giambi, that may be because you are too busy reading about Manny and Ortiz.  There has been plenty of discussion about Girardi's emphasis on fitness, and the Yankee players, Damon in particular, being in better shape.

As for regressions on the Yankees, I will give you Posada, who in a contract year put up numbers that were above his career line (though only the BA was particularly high).  As for A-Rod, while last season was amazing, he is still in his prime and has had seasons like that before, so 2007 was not  a major deviation from his career numbers, and it is possible that he could maintain that type of production, or at least something similar.

In conclusion, barring significant injuries to major Yankee run producers, I don't see Boston making up a 100-run deficit as their and the Yankee lineups stand.  I am even ignoring the premise of this question as looking independent of park factors, which would also favor the Yankees given that Fenway is a better hitting environment.  Even if the improvements/regressions go as Galt predicted (which is very optimistic from Boston's perspective), 100 runs is still a huge gap.

http://mvn.com/milb-yankees/

by lemonjello on Feb 21, 2008 4:42 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

+1
100 runs is an enormous deficit to make up in one season with essentially zero roster changes for either team.

I agree that the 2008 margin will be significantly closer, but barring injuries, it is extremely unlikely that the Sox will outscore the Yankees.

by patsfan on Feb 21, 2008 5:13 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Ortiz
had knee problems with no power.  

Arod had a historical season.  He's immense and is clearly the best on both teams.  But there's no way he's repeating that season again.  None.

by Galt on Feb 21, 2008 5:44 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

oops replied to wrong guy
But, it's different assuming bounce backs from Drew and Lugo who are 32 and assuming bouncebacks from Giambi, who is 37 and not doing steroids anymore, and Abreu who has been in a steady decline for three years.  Manny is in this camp, but given what I've been hearing about him this spring, I think it's more likely he rebounds than the other two.  I'm also sitting in my office in Manhattan right now, so it's difficult for me to get lost in the Boston media as they hype of Manny.  I read the NY papers.  Nice try there.

Damon may have a bounceback, I thought he was better last year.  Corrected.  I could see an argument with him on the "improvement list" that's fair.

No, Ellsbury isn't going to have a .900 OPS; probably not even an .800 OPS, but he'll better than Crisp, that's for sure.  And he's also much faster and will create runs by running.  

Drew, like Abreu has been in a steady decline for a couple years, but he fell off a cliff last year.  he (like Manny) should rebound to about halfway between '06 and '07.

Arod had one of the best offensive years in history.  As great as he is, if he merely replicates '06, it's a pretty big drop-off

by Galt on Feb 21, 2008 5:55 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

ortiz
just didnt hit a lot of HR's last year, he still slugged .621 with 52 2B's and 35 HR's

he also had a pretty big spike in BA last year as well

by bmxstreetrider86 on Feb 21, 2008 6:47 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

oritz
just had his best year, but he is under potential improvement, but arod is under likely regression?

and cano is just as likely to improve as any redsox player

by bmxstreetrider86 on Feb 21, 2008 5:24 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

and then
even when you look at it

1B- Redsox
2B- Yankees
3B- Yankees
SS- Yankees
RF- Yankees
LF- Redsox
CF- wash
DH- Redsox

i got 5-3 yankees, with one wash.

by bmxstreetrider86 on Feb 21, 2008 5:30 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

if only
that was an actually effective way to look at it.

by Galt on Feb 21, 2008 5:57 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

not only do the yankees
hold a 5-3 lead, 2 of the leads are massive leads (3b+SS), one is likely to be sizeable (C)

while the redsox have one massive lead at DH, one sizeable in LF

plus the yankees got essentially no production from 1B and DH last year, and still outscored the redsox by 100 runs

id be SHOCKED if the redsox outscored the yankees this year

by bmxstreetrider86 on Feb 21, 2008 6:52 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

sizeable?
Jeter is a 120 OPS+ guy (maybe a bit higher).  Until last year's debacle, Lugo was a 100 OPS+ guy, it's not a dramatic difference.  It's about the difference between Cano and Pedroia.

And the delta between Ortiz and Damon is greater than the difference between Arod and Lowell.

by Galt on Feb 21, 2008 7:31 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Jeter >>> Lugo
You can't be serious can you? You know that last year does count, right?

Career numbers:

Jeter: 317/388/462 122 OPS+
Lugo: 271/333/395 88 OPS+

If that's not the definition of massive, I'm not sure what is. 55 pts of OBP + 67 pts of SLG = massive.

by jc3 on Feb 21, 2008 9:51 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Career?
Is that really meaningful when Jeter is now 34?  Do we care that Jeter was fantastic offensively in 99?  That doesn't impact anything now.  

The point is:  right now, admittedly discounting Lugo's fluke season last year, and looking more at his last 3-4 years of production compared to Jeter's last 3-4 years of production.

Over those years, Jeter has an edge of about .50 OPS points.  

Certainly Jeter is better than Lugo, but to say that it's comparable to the difference between Damon and Ortiz is absurd.  Like I said, it's about equivalent to the difference between Cano and Pedroia.  Not an especially huge, earth shattering difference.

by Galt on Feb 22, 2008 12:17 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Huh?
So it's not meaningful when Jeter's 34... regardless that he actually hit around / above his career line over the last 3 year. but Julio Lugo is surely going to out perform his career norm at age 32 and comming off the worest season in his career?

Ooook, I buy that.

by RollingWave on Feb 22, 2008 5:30 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

OK, I will play your game
Jeter vs. Lugo:
  1. 292/352/471 vs. 275/338/396 = 89 OPS pts
  2. 309/389/450 vs. 295/362/403 = 74 OPS pts
  3. 343/417/483 vs. 278/341/421 = 138
  4. 322/388/452 vs. 237/294/349 = 197
OK, so that's about 50 OPS points? That's actually an average of 99.5, which is a huge difference.

While I will agree that Ortiz' difference in OPS is greater, Lugo is not even close to Jeter as an offensive player. Jeter, while getting older, will almost certainly age better than Lugo, who was never that good to begin with.

by jc3 on Feb 22, 2008 7:07 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Correction
The average is 124.5 OPS points. Sorry for the misunderestimation.

by jc3 on Feb 22, 2008 10:03 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Fluke season
If Lugo's season was a fluke, then the fluke started not at the beginning of last year, but at the trading deadline the year before when the Dodgers acquired him from TB.

For the Dodgers in the second half of '06, he was abysmal, even worse than he was for the Red Sox in '07.  

Which is strange, because he was in the midst of the best season of his career immediately before he was traded, with an OPS+ of 124 in over 300 plate appearances.  Looking at his career numbers, he's consistently in the 80-100 OPS+ range, and he averages out to 88.

I don't see how you can make a case that his one fine half a season in TB in '06 isn't more of a fluke.

by jumanjifan01 on Feb 22, 2008 6:05 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Lugo...
Last year, I read some crazy things about Lugo on this board... perhaps the most crazy to me being the assertion that Lugo was a top-3 (in MLB) shortstop, considering both offense and defense.  

That said, and with the normal disclaimer that I hate OPS as a stat, I think that better than his 88 career OPS+ could have been expected in 2007.  In 2001-2002, he was having "personal problems", if memory serves me.  In every other season, he was at 90+ for that stat, and for a shortstop, that's not too bad.  And, even with those 2 bad seasons, he was at 92 career OPS+ entering the season.  Considering AL shortstops had an OPS+ of 88 on average in 2007, he should have been a somewhat above-average hitter for the position.

Anyway, it will be interesting to see how seriously Lowrie pushes him this year, and if the team considers an in-season change.  My gut tells me it mostly depends on their confidence in Lowrie's ability to play SS at the major-league level.

by BobbyMac on Feb 22, 2008 10:33 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

2b?
I'm not so sure that Cano gets the edge offensively over Pedroia.  This is where OPS breaks down... Cano's extra slugging doesn't make up for the OBP difference.  Per BP's stats, their VORPr's are essentially identical (Pedroia has the edge .273 to .271).  And I think that's a valid comparison of their offensive skills.  I'd call 2b a tie, offensively (and probably close defensively, too, if we were discussing that... but we're not).  

It's interesting to see CF as a "wash"... I am sure most Red Sox fans would disagree, and even I'd give them a slight edge, but Ellsbury certainly gets too much hype (someone in another blog today wrote that he was destined for the HOF, seriously).  

I also am not sure that RF is a clear-cut Yanks advantage.  Drew has a monster career stat line.

All that being said, the deltas at SS and 3b (and possibly C) are HUGE, and that isn't captured in a simplistic "advantage" tally like this.

by BobbyMac on Feb 22, 2008 4:08 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

well
i gave the edge to cano becuase his BB rate is continuing to improve and his power ceiling is higher.

if he even had an average first half of the season, his numbers would look alot better.

as for CF offensively, PECOTA projected them to have extremely similar batting lines next season, with melky besting ellsbury by .006 points of OPS

by bmxstreetrider86 on Feb 22, 2008 3:47 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Ellsbury v. Melky
That sounds reasonable... I'd still give Ellsbury the "slight edge" due to his speed... that's part of offensive ability, too, and there's no denying that he can impact a game with his speed.  

by BobbyMac on Feb 22, 2008 4:23 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

If the Cubs
get Brian Roberts, they will be able to hang with anybody in the NL.

Roberts
Fukudome
Lee
Soriano
Aram
Soto
DeRosa in a utility role

Anything out of Pie would be an added bonus.

Send your top 50-100 prospects to slurveone@yahoo.com!!!

by slurve on Feb 21, 2008 3:14 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

unfortunately
There is no way that Soriano will bat anything but leadoff.

Fukudome should be batting leadoff (unless they get Roberts)

Should be:
Theriot
Fukudome
Lee
Aramis
Soriano
blah
blah
blah

by Galt on Feb 21, 2008 3:28 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Agreed
Lou may surprise us though...  Like you say, if they get Roberts, he'll almost have to slide Sori down.  I wouldn't have The Riot anywhere near the top - he'd be my 7 or 8 hitter.
Send your top 50-100 prospects to slurveone@yahoo.com!!!

by slurve on Feb 21, 2008 4:43 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Les Tigres
IMO.

Also, FWIW, Jacque Jones and Thames are expected to platoon in LF.  Jones's career line against RHPs is .294/.342/.483 and Thames's is .263/.333/.512 versus LHPs.

So, just using back of the envelope numbers, Jaqmar Thaones could put up a .284/.339/.493 line.  Not bad for your #8 hitter (and with good OF defense).

by Yakker on Feb 21, 2008 3:36 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

I am going to petition whoever I marry
To name the child Jaqmar

thats all that need to be said.  

I am just now reaching the age of Dusty Baker prospectdum. maybe i should give Krivsky a call

by Terry Ryan Jr on Feb 21, 2008 4:00 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Ian Stewart 2B...
I'll believe it when I see it.

The favorite at this point has to be Jayson Nix, with Barmes, Giles and Baker having a better shot than Stewart.

by DenverBears on Feb 21, 2008 3:51 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Def. Agree
I started to put Nix but I didn't want to change anything.  I figured it is easier just to state my source and not influence it at all...

by Dfarth on Feb 21, 2008 3:58 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

You think that Barmes has a better shot?
Why would you say the deerslayer has a better shot at a job than stewart?
I am just now reaching the age of Dusty Baker prospectdum. maybe i should give Krivsky a call

by Terry Ryan Jr on Feb 21, 2008 4:01 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

yes, I do...
for several reasons....
  1. Hurdle seems to love Barmes and will give him every opportunity to take the position.
  2. Barmes should be able to handle the position defensively, while I'm skeptical that Stewart will be able to.
  3. I don't think the Rockies are that serious about giving Stewart a shot at 2B after a few months of working at it.
Don't get me wrong, I don't think either of them will be chosen, but I give Barmes a marginally better chance of being the starting 2b than Stewart.

by DenverBears on Feb 21, 2008 4:47 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Nix
What is the deal with Jayson Nix? I know he was like the MVP of team USA. Say he starts what kind of numbers will he put up and does anyone know why he was not in Johns book?

by jwjc11 on Feb 21, 2008 11:36 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I won't give you numbers...
but I'm not expecting much out of him with the bat.  He hadn't done much until playing in Colorado Springs last year and even then he wasn't that great (.292/.342/451 in a hitters league).  Oddly enough, he hit much better on the road than at home (the Springs is a ridiculous hitters park)--and I don't know what to make of that.  The team USA performance was encouraging, but a small sample size.  The projection systems expect him to be awful--for what that is worth.

 

by DenverBears on Feb 22, 2008 7:18 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

This lineup is going to suprise some people
Kelly Johnson
Mark Kotsay
Chipper Jones
Mark Teixeria
Brian McCann
Jeff Francoeur
Matt Diaz
Yunel Escobar

Now it may look a little different at the beginning of the season but it's going to be a good one.

by Jay212033 on Feb 21, 2008 5:32 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

ok
Flip Yunel and Kotsay, and I'd be more apt to agree.  

by BobbyMac on Feb 22, 2008 4:49 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

81 Runs.
Maybe I'm living in the past.

Maybe Jason Giambi really is done.

But the Yanks exceeded every other team by at least 81 runs in 2007.  

I agree that the gap will close, but that's too many runs to make up... and I think they will be better at 1b/dh this year.

by BobbyMac on Feb 22, 2008 4:50 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

For what it's worth
Just about every projection system out there says Yankee and it's not really close.

As for the Tigers, people need to realize a few thing.

  1. Magglio is not going to hit .363 again, he's a solid bet for .900 OPS sure, but over 1.010? really?
  2. Edgar Rentaria's career line = Shawn Casey 07, so if you think that's a mega upgrade there, I think you'll end up pretty wrong.
  3. Rentaria also happens to never had 3 strait season hitting above league average. he's now at 2.
  4. Do you know who the last person to hit 20 triple or more in two strait season was? Sam Crawford, who played before world war 1 do you think Granderson can hit 23 Triple again this year?
  5. did you realize that Jacque Jones 07 OPS+ = Melky Cabrera?
  6. Planco is a good bet to remain in .300 territory for awhile, but hit .340 require some luck no matter how little you whiff. unless your name is Ichiro Suzuki.
Here's the problem, outside of Miguel Cabrera, almost everyone on the Tiger look like they'll have some minor / major regression . and we're not even talking age here. we're simply talking about luck and statistical probablity .

The gap the Yankee had last year is HUGE. it's not impossible to think that the Tigers might slip past them  . but it's not exactly something to bank on.

by RollingWave on Feb 22, 2008 5:49 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

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