How many more moves are coming from Bill Smith?

by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Feb 2, 2008 4:55 PM EST Comment 31 comments

I can't see it, I just can't really see it. To me, the Twins are setting themselves up for another move or two before the 2008 season begins; likely with the Athletics, or Orioles, maybe the Pirates...

I know a forum group of Pirate Fans that LOVE Wilson Ramos and would probably be willing to ship Ian Snell to the Twinks for Gomez, Ramos, and Plouffe...ironically all position players.
I think thats too expensive, but at the same time.....

Well, that is enough said from me.

What are your guys' thoughts? Any more moves coming for the Twins?

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Trades...

Personally I think he has a great Core.

Young, Mauer, Morneau.

However, that core is super young and will be around in a few years. I think you need to move Nathan now. The twins are not going to compete this season at all with that infield. Right now, the team looks like a 70 win team in my eyes.

The twins are my favorite AL team and it sucks that they need to break it down. But they have zero need for a closer this year.

The Dimondbacks, Braves, Cubs, Indians, Tigers really could use a closer. They are thin in the pen and are using players that aren't proven or really hurt them lack of a set up man.

Remember: baseball guys... baseball...

by Metty5 on Feb 2, 2008 5:11 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I wouldn't say the Braves

need a closer. They've got a guy in Soriano who has dynamite stuff, has had a ton of success, has shown a great mentality to be closer, and has been successful in a half season as a closer. They really have no need for someone else.

Check out MVN.com/mlb-braves for the best Braves coverage

by was385 on Feb 2, 2008 5:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Olney on the Braves BP

Rafael Soriano is slated to be the closer, but he's had recurring arm trouble; can he stay healthy? The Braves won't get Mike Gonzalez back until midseason at the earliest, and it's unclear whether he'll give them any help at all this summer. Peter Moylan is a solid Plan B as a closer, but he was so exceptional in middle relief last year that it would be wrenching for Bobby Cox to pull him out of that role.

Soriano is a great player. Hes young with a great arm. However, they have a thin pen. Nathan would be a huge addition.

Remember: baseball guys... baseball...

by Metty5 on Feb 2, 2008 6:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

and likely one they can't afford

after dealing off a ton of talent to the rangers in the tex deal.......

i honestly doubt they'd be interested.....but then again, the way the twins give away top talent, who knows?

by Wheelhouse on Feb 2, 2008 6:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Ya...

because the Twins never get good talent in return. (note: sarcasm)

The Twins haven't "lost" a major trade in 10 years. Methinks they'll end up with the better end of the Santana one as well.

by DJSkillz on Feb 2, 2008 6:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

GM

Sure they may not have lost a major trade in 10 years, but that's irrelevant since their GM isn't the same.

by TRanger on Feb 3, 2008 11:08 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Terry Ryan...

still has a LOT of say in that front office. Nothing changes other than aggressiveness in that front office going from Terry Ryan to Bill Smith.

And the scouting department hasn't changed one bit either, and they're the real keys to the deals.

by DJSkillz on Feb 3, 2008 4:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

They definitely could afford it

with a very good farm system but they just don't need him. It would be a waste of prospects and a waste of money, plus they wouldn't be able to re-sign him so it is just a stupid idea.

Check out MVN.com/mlb-braves for the best Braves coverage

by was385 on Feb 2, 2008 6:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

he had

arm troubles once I believe. Last year was just overuse and him being tired. He's a very proven reliever and the pen is just fine. They've got plenty of good arms at the end, solid ones in the middle, and a couple of very good young ones coming up through the minors. Nathan has a zero percent chance of being dealt to the Braves. Also, Gonzalez is probably going to be back before mid-season.

Check out MVN.com/mlb-braves for the best Braves coverage

by was385 on Feb 2, 2008 6:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Nathan

I agree, the Twins would be better off trading Nathan... and I think he could net a lot since he has a very nice contract...

However, what if the Twins held him, and moved him in July... this way, they could pretend they are contending, or trying too, and Nathan might get a contending team to pay out more once things are taking shape...

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by dbimberg on Feb 2, 2008 5:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

yea, cause they played the santana deal so well

let's get tricky with nathan as well!

if they have a good deal they should take it now.......team is going no where this year

by Wheelhouse on Feb 2, 2008 6:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

not only keep him but

tell him we're not trading you until the deadline if then, let it sink in. I said this way back before the winter meetings.

Also tell him get ready to take the ball every four days - if you do leave we're going to get our money's worth. Put him on a strict, lowered pitch count, but get a start from him every 4 games.

As Twins GM I'd be more than willing to bet on one of NYY or RedSox starters flaming out or falling apart sometime by July. Then you make the deal. If he tries to veto the team acquiring him can guarantee the 7th yr of the extension. Again its not my money so easy for me to sit here and play laptop GM but look at it this way - how much less would they receive in July than now?

Mulder: Babe Ruth was an alien? Arthur Dales: sure; all the great ones were aliens.

by dew on Feb 2, 2008 8:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Cubs

I am not sure why people think the Cubs need a closer. I have heard the Cubs and Nathan rumored, but with Howry, Wood, Marmol, and maybe even Dempster I think the Cubs have one of the better bullpens in the NL and think one of those guys can close. Just my two cents.

by goose102977 on Feb 2, 2008 6:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Thats why I put a star

because I think they'd be in talks with the twins. Marmol is sick but Nathan is clear upgrade and the Cubs are one team who could sign him to an extension.

Remember: baseball guys... baseball...

by Metty5 on Feb 2, 2008 6:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Bold not star*

Remember: baseball guys... baseball...

by Metty5 on Feb 2, 2008 6:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Snell?

Even the Pirates aren't that dumb. A rapidly improving 26 year who is #13 in the NL in ERA, #9 in IP and #7 in K's. Plus CF is just about the only position where they don't need help (McCutchen) so Gomez makes no sense.

by my dixie wrecked on Feb 2, 2008 6:14 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I think pitching depth...

would be more key.

A team like the Giants still makes a lot of sense, because they're not going anywhere for a few years. So getting some offense in Kubel or Cuddyer, plus some younger pitching depth, for Cain would make a lot of sense for them.

But I think Bill Smith is done for now.

by DJSkillz on Feb 2, 2008 6:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

70 wins?

You honestly see the Twins as a 70 win team? How?

Even without Santana and Hunter this year they figure to improve greatly over last year, when they had 79 wins in an awful season.

They had ONE hitter last year overachieve, one. Torii Hunter. Otherwise, almost every hitter had a bad year or was hurt, including Mauer/Cuddyer/Kubel/Bartlett. They've added Delmon Young, who could very well at least come close to matching Torii Hunter's offensive production. They have 2 capable CF replacements, though obviously either one is a dropoff from Torii. Cuddyer and Mauer figure to be healthier. Morneau figures to have better look than last year in BABIP; plus he'll have protection this year, unlike his last 2 months of 2007. Then they add Kubel to the DH role that has been lacking for years, and his 2nd half last year of a .953 OPS says that he is back to the hitter he was before the knee injury. Harris is a huge offensive upgrade at 2b and is average offensively. Everett is terrible offensively, but if he just hits his career average OPS, he's just as good as the Twins' SS production last year, which was awful. And he's great defensively, the best in baseball. And then you go from maybe the worst 3b offensive season in history with Nick Punto to an above-average offensive 3b in Lamb. That offense actually projects to score about 800 runs this year, up about 80 from last year, which is a HUGE improvement. People underestimate the offensive improvements that Bill Smith has made.

Then you have the pitching. Yes, they lose Johan, Silva and Garza, but they also get back Liriano, and Garza/Silva/Santana weren't exactly special last year. Santana had an 'off' year so he's less difficult to replace. Silva's ERA was over 4 still. And Garza only pitched 83 innings. If Liriano can replace Garza's ERA in the high 3's with more innings than 83 (likely in my mind), ONE of Baker/Slowey/Bonser can replace Silva's ERA of just over 4 (also likely in my mind) and another one of those guys can do similar, then they won't be all that far off from last year's staff. And that's not even counting the fact that they had the atrocious ERA's of Ortiz/Ponson weighing them down last year for a couple months. Then you look at the bullpen. Again ONE pitcher overachieved last year, Matt Guerrier. Everyone else was hurt or underperformed (save Nathan), including Neshek/Reyes/Perkins/Crain, and Rincon, who had the worst year of his career. The Twins' staff was 4th best in the league last year and it still figures to be at least top 6, even with the kids.

Bottomline, people are really underestimating this team this year. With Santana they could have won 90 as an average projection. Without him, they'll still win around 85-86 with just "normal" years from people. If anyone overperforms, and there are plenty of candidates to do just that, they can still win 90+.

I really think 70 wins is a laughable projection. The Twins will still finish no worse than 3rd in the Central.

by DJSkillz on Feb 2, 2008 6:26 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

They wont be better

C     Joe Mauer
1B     Justin Morneau
2B     Brendan Harris
3B     Mike Lamb
SS     Adam Everett
LF     Delmon Young
CF     Craig Monroe
RF     Michael Cuddyer
DH     Jason Kubel

SP1     Francisco Liriano
SP2     Boof Bonser
SP3     Scott Baker
SP4     Kevin Slowey
SP5 ?? Could be a few people

The rotation is very young and although they are deep they don't have experience. Your counting on Liriano to carry a rotation when he might not be the same pitcher in the past.

Look at the upgrades by Detroit and the talent of Cleveland. The CWS are attempting to compete, but they won't be good. However, they have some big bats still. And the Royals should continue to be better this year.

Losing Hunter and Santana is huge. Not to mention Silva, Bartlett, and Garza.

Yea Delmon could be a Stud but he isn't proven at all. The 3B, ss, and 2B could be the least productive in the majors. Craig Monore is the projected CF.

Maybe 75 is a better number, but i'd take the UNDER on that one.

Remember: baseball guys... baseball...

by Metty5 on Feb 2, 2008 6:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Don't feed the homers

:-)

Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.

by doublestix on Feb 2, 2008 8:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

haha keith

Look, every team has bright spots. I'm sure you'll be happy if the Royals do well and Gordon and Butler break out. If that happened you'd look at the season as a win.

If I'm a twins fan i look for a few things:

First, Delmon and Mauer to add some power to their games.

Second, for Delmon to add some plate discipline.

Third, for Lirano to be healthy.

Lastly, to see a few other SP emerge.

If Nathan is traded then the last thing is to get a good deal for him.

Remember: baseball guys... baseball...

by Metty5 on Feb 2, 2008 8:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

3b and 2b...

figure to be LAST in the majors for the Twins?

Huh?

Harris and Lamb are both at LEAST average offensive players at their positions in the AL. Look at their OPS. The only below average offensive position in the Twins' entire lineup is SS, with CF being a possibility as well. They were WELL above average at C and 1b, figure to be a good deal above average at all of DH/RF/LF, and are average or slightly above average at 2b and 3b. I don't know what you are thinking. You apparently do not understand just how pitiful the seasons were from 2b/SS/3b for the Twins last season. They were 2nd to last or last in all of DH/RF/LF/2b/3b last year in the AL in OPS. RF was due to injuries to Cuddyer (he shouldn't have been playing the last 2 months of the season) and DH/LF we now have Young/Kubel. 2b/3b we now have huge upgrades in Harris/Lamb. They're not "studs" but they're average for their positions, which is worlds better than Luis Castillo and Nick Punto were last season.

And pitching-wise, yes they're young. I'm not counting on Liriano to "anchor" the staff at all. I'm counting on him to pitch around 150-160 innings with a high 3's ERA. As I said, replacing Garza's numbers, but with more innings than the 83 Garza threw last year. I don't see how that's a stretch at all, especially considering the recent reports on his health. The Twins' staff was 4th last year in the league, but again, only ONE pitcher on the whole staff overperformed. Matt Guerrier. Johan had an off year so he is easier to replace vs. last year than you would expect. And all Silva did was have an ERA over 4. Baker figures to only improve with more experience. Same for Boof Bonser, who has lost 25 pounds this offseason. If you look at his splits, he always was fine for 5 innings before falling apart in the 6th. The weight loss should help a great amount in that area. And then you have kids for 4/5 in some combination of Slowey/Perkins/Blackburn/Duensing/Mulvey/Humber, but that's no worse than the 4/5 slots last year, which also included atrocious innings from Ponson and Ortiz. I'm not expecting them to be quite as good of a staff at all. They were 4th last year, but I think it's very reasonable to expect them to be about 6th this year.

We will see, but 70 or 75 wins is really laughable. I'll bet you on either one of those any time. This is a better team than last year's team on the whole, even without Johan and Torii. And that team basically hit it's absolute floor with 79 wins.

Go through the team position by position and look at the injuries last year, etc. and you will see. Rather than blindly going by media perception just because they lost Johan and Torii.

by DJSkillz on Feb 2, 2008 9:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Also...

Craig Monroe is NOT the projected CF. It's a battle between Jason Pridie, who had a great year in AAA last year, and Carlos Gomez.

Craig Monroe is slated to be the DH vs. lefties, to spell Kubel. And he does quite well against lefties.

Please do some homework before you make a prediction like that for a team. As I said, I will gladly bet you on the Twins winning at LEAST 79 games this year.

by DJSkillz on Feb 2, 2008 9:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Ok, First.

Be respectful. Don't tell me to do my homework I know what I'm talking about.

The Leftside and you're second baseman are horrible call them average if you want, but average doesn't win games. Especially when neither of them have shown anything to make me think they will be able to be productive.

Harris has had one season as a fulltime player and didn't break an 800 OPS with 777. Everett is a great fielder but is black hole. Lamb is also a career .766 OPS player. And as a whole they'll be the least productive SS, 3B, and 2B.

Mauer is a stud and as you've said is well above average. However he has had trouble staying on the field. And even if he played 160 games he'd be one of 3 potential studs.

"figure to be a good deal above average at all of DH/RF/LF"

Sure Delmon has that potential to be a stud.But Cuddyer had a .789 OPS last season in RF. The man hit 16 HRS. and Kubel had a .785 and a career at .745.

Cuddyer and Kubel aren't great players. I wouldn't be comfortable with them starting on my team.

Delmon has upside and potential. But he had a 724 OPS last season. Even if he breaks 800 he'll be the 3rd best player on a miserable offense.

As far as CF goes. I assumed that the Twins would not start Gomez. He has potential but at the same time he needs to be in the minors for a full year.

Pride might be good. But he doesn't have the pop to be considered a threat on a good team. But the Twins wont be a good team so sure start him over Gomez or Monroe

*"They were 4th last year, but I think it's very reasonable to expect them to be about 6th this year."

I assume you mean in ERA. They have a good bullpen but the starters aren't special. Aside from a risky Lirano I don't see one pitcher who could break out as a 2 or a 3. Bonser is solid but he isn't a 3.

The team isn't close to being as good as last year. The offense is weak, the pitching is young, inexperienced and potentially shaky. The best that this team has to offer is their BP.

Remember: baseball guys... baseball...

by Metty5 on Feb 2, 2008 10:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

OK...

I'll take you point by point.

Harris-2b--- A .777 OPS IS average for a 2b in the AL.

Everett-SS---Again, yes he is a bad offensive SS, but even just his career average leaves the Twins with exactly the same SS production they had last year offensively. That's how bad their combo of Bartlett/Casilla/Punto was. And he is the best defensive SS in the game. So that's not really a dropoff vs. last year.

Lamb-3b-He hasn't had an OPS below .819 for 3 of the last 4 years. There's an obvious outlier there. Even a .766 OPS (which isn't all that likely) would be the 5th best team production from 3b in the AL last season. Again, do you realize just how bad Punto was last year? He had a .562 OPS! That is a HUGE upgrade.

Cuddyer-that is cherry picking stats. In 2006 he had a .866 OPS. Last season, he had an OPS of .823 before his thumb injury. His numbers plummeted after that, and the Twins' hitting coach even specifically said he shouldn't even have been playing. Not only that, but the injury robbed him of his 2nd and 3rd best career months, August and September. So even if you take the floor of an .823 OPS for him since he's been a starter (ie, non-injured) he'd be above average for league RF's last year. If you are more realistic and give him an OPS in between 2006 and 2007 (ie .845) he would have ranked 4th in team RF OPS last year in the league.

Kubel-This guy was a great hitting prospect before a huge knee injury a couple years ago. He was mentioned very much in the same breath as Morneau and Mauer as a hitter before the injury. Only in the 2nd half last year did he finally start to get over his knee injury and produce how he had before. In the 2nd half last year, he had the best OPS on the team, at .953. Myself and just about every Twins fan out there would be shocked if he doesn't have an OPS of at least .800 this year. Most of us think he will be a top 3 hitter on the team, in fact.

For good measure I'll throw in Justin Morneau. In 2006 he had an OPS of .934. In 2007, he had an OPS of .936 through the first 4 months. Even with being incredibly unlucky (check his BABIP). So what happened the final 2 months? All his protection in the lineup went down. Mauer was hurt; Cuddyer was hurt and shell of himself. And even Torii Hunter had only 1 good month, while having an atrocious month (roughly .650 OPS) in the other. Those are the 3 guys that would hit directly around him. It's pretty clear if you look deep at the numbers that Morneau is far more similar to the 2006 version than the 2007 version.

As for the pitching, Boof and Baker don't have potential to be #2 or #3 starters? Seriously? And that's not even including Slowey, Perkins, Blackburn, Duensing, Mulvey, and Humber, all of who have #3 potential as well. Any one, or 2 of those guys could easily be #3's. Boof and Baker are both potential #2's. I don't think you'll find a scout that would disagree with that. I'm not saying that those guys all pan out to their potential, but given that huge amount of starters, a couple of them are likely to.

That offense is not a "weak" offense. By Marcel projections, similar to PECOTA, that offense projects to score almost 800 runs, which is slighly above middle of the pack, a HUGE improvement over last year. And that's not even projecting anything special or above "average" from any one of Young/Kubel/Mauer/Morneau/Cuddyer.

In fact, Marcel also projects the team to win 87-88 games based on runs scored/runs allowed from the team this year. I won't go that high--as I said, I think it will win 85-86--but you are severely underrating the Twins if you seriously think they will win 75 games or less.

I say again; if you care to bet me on a win total, feel free. I will gladly take your money.

by DJSkillz on Feb 2, 2008 10:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

2B OPS

I'm not saying who I agree with here, but I thought it would be interesting to do a little research on the subject. The league average OPS last season was right around .750. However, there are some extremes to consider when you keep this in mind:

The Twins number (roughly .623) was held down be the utter lack of XBH from their secondbasemen. The 3 players who played almost all the innings at second base for the Twins last season (Castillo, Punto, Casilla) combined to hit (count 'em) 2 homeruns. One of those (Castillo's) was hit for another team (the Mets), and the other (Punto's) came while he was playing another position (3b if I'm not mistaken). Those three players combined to hit 43 XBH for the Twins, but not necessarily while playing secondbase.(You could also keep in mind that, despite Castillo's lack of power, he was on pace to score 90+ runs for the Twins last season)
The Indians number (roughly .579) was worst in the league. They suffered through 120 games of Josh Barfield's .513 OPS. That number is historically horrific. I would love to see, if anyone has the numbers, how that compares to other secondbasemen in the history of the game (or live-ball era, rather) in terms of suckage (let's say, with at least 100 games played at the position).
Tampa Bay's OPS greatly benefited by the time BJ Upton played there. Anaheim got half a season of Howie Kendrick's .897 OPS as well.
Only 4 secondbasemen played 150 games in the AL last year (Cano, Ellis, Hill, Roberts). This means at least two weeks of Plan B for all you other folks.

Mark Ellis' OPS was actually .777 last year as well. The A's number (.770), ranked 9th in the AL. Kansas City's number, which was 10th in the league, was also above the league average (.758). This means that the other 4 teams managed to bring the league average down. I would say that's rather rare, but I have absolutely no numbers to back that claim up.

by ajake57 on Feb 3, 2008 1:38 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

oops

After posting this I realized that Kendrick's OPS was not .897, but .797, a gaff I made in my original calculations. This would lower the league average 3 points, and make 5 teams pulling down the average.

by ajake57 on Feb 3, 2008 1:44 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

right...

that's actually part of my point. The Twins really, really struggled last year, and in some previous years, offensively because of a lack of extra base hits. Yes HR's, but also doubles. On paper, they look to have dramatically improved there this offseason. Young had 38 last year. Harris had 35. Even Everett has had in the high 20's for his last 2 healthy seasons. And then you have Lamb, who has that ability. Plus Cuddyer/Kubel/Mauer likely having more AB's and being healthier this year.

Now they certainly lose some 2b's from Hunter leaving, but Gomez and Pridie both have good double ability as well.

I've always thought the scariest type of lineup is the lineup that is full of doubles hitters, constantly putting pressure on the opposing staff. That is the kind of lineup the Twins figure to have this year for the first time in a LONG time. I think they might end up being at least one of the top 3 teams in doubles, which is a far departure from last season.

by DJSkillz on Feb 3, 2008 2:16 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Liriano

I'm not sure what you meant by saying DJ was counting on Liriano carry the rotation. He said he was hoping for an ERA in the high 3's which would be a reasonable projection. That is nearly twice his ERA in 06. I think his opinion on Liriano is almost on the conservative side. If he put up a number like 3.80 then he would not be the same pitcher, but the original post already seemed to have that in mind.

FJM, down in the trenches doing the Lord's work.

by zdavis2512 on Feb 3, 2008 2:42 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'd wait

I think the market for Nathan will improve as the season goes on. Trade him at the deadline and they should get top dollar. Then again, the way Smith's been working that would suggest that he might do it now.

by laughlin on Feb 2, 2008 9:06 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I hope we(Twinks) don't deal Joe Nathan

...Because with the subtractions of Silva, Hunter, Santana all in one offseason..not to mention other veterans like Rondell White and otheres...

there should be enough money in Minny still, to sign him through 2010 and the New Stadium Joe Deserves to play a year in outside...

I could see the Twins giving an option year for 2011 but no further that is as Long as possible that Nathan is in a Twins uniform IMHO...

But We'll see what happens...

ALthough I'd love for Minny to acquire a Street or a Blanton or both...they need a veteran pitcher now, for obvious reasons wiht or without Joe Nathan....

YES DO IT BILL... A's call Beane up, call him!

The Twins WILL compete in 2008!!!

by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Feb 5, 2008 11:54 PM EST reply actions 0 recs