Project Prospect Top 150
PP has released their Top 150, an interesting read:
http://www.projectprospect.com/2008-top-150-prospect-list/
1 Jay Bruce CF Power hitter who can rope the ball all over the field; potential all-star and a class act 20.8 CIN AAA
2 Colby Rasmus CF Has as much power as Bruce with better BB/K, just not as proven; highly focussed 21.5 STL AA
3 Evan Longoria 3B Good bet to be above-average bat; should hit 30 HR + reach base frequently in prime 22.2 TB AAA
4 Clay Buchholz RHP Overwhelming arsenal paired with finesse mentality could make him a No. 1 starter 23.4 BOS MLB
5 Joba Chamberlain RHP His stuff may be better than Buchholz's; needs to prove himself as full-season starter 22.3 NYY MLB
6 Clayton Kershaw LHP Walk rate is only thing holding him back; strong bet to headline this list entering 2009 19.9 LAD AA
7 David Price LHP Among top college arms in last decade; "wire-to-wire" consensus No. 1 pick for 2007 22.4 TB NCAA
8 Jake McGee LHP One of the top power pitchers in MiLB; his secondary will make him at least a No. 2 21.5 TB AA
9 Cameron Maybin CF Burner had .201 IsoP thanks to some huge power spurts last year; LD% is concerning 20.8 FLA MLB
10 Andy LaRoche 3B Should get chance to exhibit excellent power and patience in '08; Our pick for NL ROY 24.4 LAD MLB
11 Johnny Cueto RHP It's difficult to debate his success; No. 1-2 depending on how often he gives up XBH 21.9 CIN AAA
12 Homer Bailey RHP Supporters point to '07 injuries; doubters question BB% and how hittable he was 21.7 CIN MLB
13 Travis Snider RF Utter hitting prowess is balanced by DH body; powerful lefty could reach AAA in '08 20.0 TOR A
14 Matt Wieters C Top collegiate bat in his class; switch hitter with good power stroke, sound defense 21.7 BAL HWB
15 Rick Porcello RHP Extremely advanced prep arm; top-of-the-rotation talent who figures to move quickly 19.1 DET HS
16 Ian Kennedy RHP Good bet to become a No. 2; induces soft contact; has found success everywhere 23.1 NYY MLB
17 Daric Barton 1B Contact hitter who can draw walks and hit for power; expect smooth transition to bigs 22.4 OAK MLB
18 Chris Marrero 1B The kind of home-run hitter who gets pitched around when he's hot; just a bit streaky 19.6 WAS A+
19 Gio Gonzalez LHP Gets called out for being under 6-foot; has made strides limiting HR; could be a No. 2 22.4 OAK AA
20 Fernando Martinez OF Stayed more than afloat as teen in AA then broke hamate; expect modest improvement 19.3 NYM AA
21 Joey Votto 1B Line-drive machine excels at hitting the ball in the air and drawing BB; some speed, too 24.4 CIN MLB
22 Jacoby Ellsbury CF Unlikely to be above-average hitter; strengths are speed and defense; very polished 24.4 BOS MLB
23 Brandon Wood 3B Questionable contact abilities; but tolerable due to his power; could play SS in a pinch 22.9 LAA MLB
24 Andrew McCutchen CF May take a while for his game to translate to the bigs; plus speed with some power 21.3 PIT AAA
25 Mike Moustakas 3B Elite power hitter; good enough athlete to play SS in pro debut; could reach A+ in '08 19.4 KC R
26 Franklin Morales LHP Was better than ever once he reached the bigs; expect him to get hit a bit harder in '08 22.0 COL MLB
27 Wade Davis RHP Potential No. 2 does a great job limiting hard contact; really tired down the stretch 22.4 TB AA
28 Matt LaPorta LF Awesome power hitter; should ascend through minors quickly; still profiles best at 1B 22.9 MIL A
29 Angel Villalona 3B Fresh off promising debut (.344 wOBA); power's his calling card; lots of uncertainty 17.5 SF SS
30 Matt Antonelli 2B Excellent walk rates, low K, and good power could put him among the game's top 2B 22.8 SD AA
31 Jeff Clement C 2004's 3rd overall pick punishes LHP, solid against RHP; arm strength is questionable 24.4 SEA MLB
32 Josh Vitters 3B Considered top prep hitter in '07 by some; pro debut (55 PA) was uninspiring - 0 XBH 18.4 CHC R
33 Austin Jackson CF 2nd-half surge was no coincidence - learned to pull the ball; expect a breakout year 21.0 NYY A+
34 Reid Brignac SS Line-drive hitter with some pop; bat may only be average in bigs; should stick at SS 23.0 TB AA
35 Jose Tabata RF More consistent but hasn't flashed as much power as Fernando; also broke hamate 19.5 NYY A+
36 Nick Adenhart RHP Standout ability to keep ball in the park; limits hard contact well; good bet to be No. 2-3 21.4 LAA AA
37 Jarrod Parker RHP 2nd-best prep pitcher in his class; could move quickly...maybe surface as a No. 1-2 19.2 ARI HS
38 Carlos Gonzalez RF Good LD hitter; his '06 success came in Lancaster; bat may only be average in bigs 22.3 OAK AAA
39 Fautino de los Santos RHP Winston-Salem is tough to pitch in - he dominated; AA is next step; could be a No. 2 21.9 OAK A+
40 Jordan Schafer CF Broke out in '07 despite rigors of Myrtle Beach; promising power; D praised universally 21.4 ATL A+
41 Desmond Jennings CF Crazy fast contact hitter also drew walks in Low-A; unproven but high-upside talent 21.2 TB A
42 Jason Heyward RF Powerful 6'4'', 220-pounder lasted until the 14th pick of '07; top prep OF in his class 18.5 ATL R
43 Beau Mills 1B WAC star turned NAIA legend; improved K% and wOBA at each of three his pro stops 21.4 CLE A+
44 Aaron Laffey LHP Extreme-ground-ball pitcher is a very safe bet to be a No. 3; that can't be said of many 22.8 CLE MLB
45 Sean Gallagher RHP Matured from 12 rounder ('04) to good bet to be No. 3 starter; solid K%, good HR rates 22.1 CHC MLB
46 Aaron Thompson LHP Amazing GB pitcher; had shoulder tendonitis last year and has been in pitcher's parks 20.9 FLA AA
47 Bill Rowell 3B Just a day older than Moustakas; slowed by oblique injury in '07; cut him some slack 19.4 BAL A
48 Lars Anderson 1B Doubles hitter last year; stock could explode in Lancaster; AA totals will mean more 20.3 BOS A+
49 Trevor Cahill RHP Great at inducing soft contact - should translate well to A+AA; shot at being a No. 2 19.9 OAK A
50 Kevin Mulvey RHP Posted an amazing .076 IsoPA in '07 - 3.16 FIP; a good bet to become a No. 3 starter 22.7 MIN AA
51 Jed Lowrie SS Could easily be a league-average hitter; better fit at second than short - limits upside 23.8 BOS AAA
52 Elvis Andrus SS Myrtle Beach is known for surpressing power; expect breakout offensive year in '08 19.4 TEX A+
53 Brett Anderson LHP Picked apart Low-A hitters; reached A+ in first full season; a chance to be a No. 2-3 20.1 OAK A+
54 Michael Burgess RF Not sure how he slipped to 49th pick in '07; big power potential and he can draw a BB 19.3 WAS SS
55 Jair Jurrjens RHP Knows how to pitch; solid bet to be a No. 3 starter; 18.1% K combined in '07, 7.1% BB 22.0 ATL MLB
56 Geovany Soto C Guys don't accidentally hit like he did in '07; could be a league-average bat this season 25.0 CHC MLB
57 Justin Masterson RHP Sinkerballer has Brandon-Webb upside; still needs to prove durable enough to be a SP 22.8 BOS AA
58 Tyler Robertson LHP Exhibited mastery over 102.1 IP...29.2% K, 2.20 FIP; still far away but a potential No. 2 20.1 MIN A
59 Chase Headley 3B LD approach allows him to lace the ball all over; could become a league-average hitter 23.7 SD MLB
60 Chris Volstad RHP Good command, HR rates, GB tendencies; solid shot at being a No. 3, chance of No. 2 21.3 FLA AA
61 Matt Latos RHP 11th rounder ('06) signed for 1st round money, dominated SS hitters over 56.1 innings 20.1 SD SS
62 Steve Pearce 1B Annihilated A+, AA, and AAA last year; could become a 25+ HR guy in the bigs by '09 24.8 PIT MLB
63 Ross Detwiler RHP 6th pick in '07 has lots of upside; not the safest bet to harness it; high BB% in NCAA 21.9 WAS MLB
64 Greg Reynolds RHP Talented GB pitcher; shoulder injury limited him in '07 (50.0 IP); No. 2 if healthy return? 22.6 COL AA
65 Hank Conger C 25th pick from '06 managed to hit for power in MWL; should devour CAL pitching in '08 20.0 LAA A
66 Matt Dominguez 3B 12th pick in '07; said to be great defender; bat is the question...didn't hit much in debut 18.4 FLA SS
67 Michael Bowden RHP Likely only No. 3-4 but well on his way; K% rose every month from May-August in AA 21.4 BOS AA
68 Nick Weglarz LF Walks a lot, Ks a lot, hits for a lot of power; Totalled 8 HR and .473 wOBA in August 20.1 CLE A
69 Deolis Guerra RHP Made strides in command dept.; was limited then shut down due to shoulder tendonitis 18.8 MIN A+
70 Jesus Montero C $2.0 M Ven. signee was solid in 123 rookie PA; success could translate well to A-ball 18.1 NYY R
71 Madison Bumgarner LHP Young for his draft class (10th pick of '07); raw athlete with potential to be a No. 1-2 18.5 SF HS
72 Ryan Kalish CF Has mastered SS ball - great BB%, low K%, solid power; broke hamate bone in July 19.8 BOS SS
73 Sean O'Sullivan RHP Has allowed just 8 HR in 229.2 pro innings; isn't overpowering; could become a No. 3 20.4 LAA A
74 Cole Rorhbough LHP Signed for 2nd round money in '06; 40.3% K between rookie and A ball shows upside 20.7 ATL A
75 James Simmons RHP 26th pick in '07 was thrusted to AA then AFL in pro debut; command is his strength 21.3 OAK AA
76 Aaron Poreda LHP 25th pick in '07 was held in rookie ball in his debut - thrived there; still has lots to prove 21.5 CHW R
77 Adam Miller RHP His arm is spectacular when it's working; ranks this low because of injury concerns 23.2 CLE AAA
78 Phillippe Aumont RHP 11th pick of '07; raw with high upside; his HS (in Canada) didn't have a baseball team 19.1 SEA HS
79 Wladimir Balentien RF Vastly improved contact abilities ('06 to '07); could be close to a league-average bat 23.6 SEA MLB
80 Carlos Triunfel SS Teen reached A+ in debut; power is lacking, unproven on D, but a good contact hitter 17.9 SEA A+
81 Carlos Gomez CF One of the fastest runners in baseball; breakout season haulted by broken hamate? 22.2 MIN MLB
82 Anthony Swarzak RHP Good bet to be a No. 4; improved his walk rates last year (9.8 to 6.7%); good HR/TBF 22.4 MIN AA
83 Kosuke Fukudome RF We only see him as an average regular for a year or two; then we expect a decline 30.8 CHC INT
84 Will Inman RHP We love 25%+ K rate guys; but this one has had troubles staying strong for a full year 21.0 SD AA
85 Kasey Kiker LHP BB% and HR rate are concerning given he was in Low-A; 27.6% K shows his upside 20.2 TEX A
86 Chris Parmelee RF Showed impressive power (.175 IsoP) in full-season debut; 27.3% K is scary, though 19.9 MIN A
87 Blake Beavan RHP 17th pick of '07; 6'7'', 210-pound power pitcher has a lot of upside but unusual motion 19.0 TEX HS
88 Tim Alderson RHP Dazzled in pro debut: 5.0 IP, 12 K, 0 BB, 0 XBH; 22nd ('07) pick could reach A+ in '08 19.2 SF R
89 Jeffrey Locke LHP Masterful command + overpowering stuff; yet to pitch above rookie; very high upside 20.2 ATL R
90 Jaime Garcia LHP Shut down in mid-July - soreness in pitching elbow; injury may have been slowing him 21.4 STL AA
91 Jordan Walden RHP DNF from '06 signed a hefy bonus; mowed down rookie hitters; at least No. 3 potential 20.2 LAA R
92 Joe Savery LHP Two-way NCAA players can learn quickly; that's what we expect from '07's 19th pick 22.2 PHI SS
93 Esmailyn Gonzalez SS Big INT signee was decent in pro debut; good upside; shows how INT $ is deceiving 18.4 WAS R
94 Collin Balester RHP Improved BB% and K% last season; strong bet to be No. 4; .140 IsoPA is concerning 21.6 WAS AAA
95 Matt Harrison LHP Turf toe ended his '07 early; limits HR and hard contact; a solid bet to become a No. 4 22.4 TEX AA
96 Scott Elbert LHP Had shoulder operation in '07; could reestablish himself in '08; BB% still major concern 22.5 LAD AA
97 Tyler Colvin CF Was very strong in August (.362 wOBA, AA) but had 0 BB that month; 13th pick in '06 22.4 CHC AA
98 Kevin Ahrens 3B High-upside hitter who played SS in pro debut but will likely wind up playing third base 18.8 TOR R
99 Manny Parra LHP Has spent bulk of his career in AA and below; maybe a No. 3-4; durability is a concern 25.2 MIL MLB
100 Cody Johnson RF Another Braves' prospect being brought along carefully; crushed Appy pitchers in '07 19.4 ATL R
101 Chris Nelson SS Heated up in June, caught fire in July; '04's 9th overall pick; breakout coming in 2008? 22.4 COL A+
102 Taylor Teagarden C Glowing defense; bat was great in CAL League (A+) and AA - had lots of Ks, though 24.1 TEX AA
103 Chin-lung Hu SS Bulked up and broke out in '07; good contact hitter w some power; a stellar gloveman 24.0 LAD MLB
104 Chris Mason RHP Succeeds by limiting HRs and throwing strikes (6.6% BB since '05); potential No. 3-4 23.6 TB AA
105 Jeremy Jeffress RHP Partially met high expectations in Low-A - 26.0% K, 12.0% BB, 4.32 FIP; 16th pick ('06) 20.4 MIL A
106 Omar Poveda RHP Maintained a promising 24.9% K as a teen in A/A+; big jump in BB% from MWL to CAL 20.3 TEX A+
107 Steve Evarts LHP Exceptional GB pitcher so far - 80.0 pro innings without a HR; just 2.8% BB in '07, too 20.3 ATL R
108 Michael Main RHP 24th pick in '07 has quick, dangerous arm action - health concern; an amazing athlete 19.1 TEX SS
109 Chris Tillman RHP Good in MWL, not so much in CAL; solid K% poor BB% and HR rate; potential No. 4? 19.8 BAL A+
110 Mat Gamel 3B Strong FSL finish after slow start; amazing in HWB (1.000+ OPS); solid all-around bat 22.5 MIL A+
111 German Duran 2B Huge power jump in '07 (.225 IsoP in AA); but just a average runner and low walk rate 23.5 TEX AA
112 Dexter Fowler CF OBP threat without much power; projectability is a tough subject; eaten alive in AFL 21.9 COL A+
113 J.R. Towles C Only has 95 PA above AA; easy to get too caught up in a C who looks like he can hit 24.0 HOU MLB
114 Eric Hurley RHP Has allowed 42 HR over last 2 seasons; being brought along quickly; potential No. 4-5 22.4 TEX AAA
115 Oscar Tejeda SS Raw, high-upside talent who was solid in rookie-ball and short-season in his US debut 18.1 BOS SS
116 Engle Beltre OF Impressive power for a teenager in his first pro season; contact ability is questionable 18.2 TEX SS
117 Adrian Cardenas 2B Withstood pitcher-friendly Lakewood, FSL is next; OK contact hitter with some power 20.3 PHI A
118 Chris Davis 3B Mashed at home in CAL (.438 wOBA); continued success in AA - amazing 2nd half 21.9 TEX AA
119 Neil Walker 3B Hot Apr., May, June; steep drop in play from then on; enough bat to stick at third base? 22.4 PIT AAA
120 Ian Stewart 3B Great hitter in Colorado Springs but below-average on the road; bat may fit best at 2B 22.8 COL MLB
121 Wilmer Font RHP Excellent strikeout rates considering his age; BB% is a concern; still, a lot of upside 17.7 TEX R
122 James McDonald RHP Excellent K% (30.2 in '07), solid BB rate (6.7%); strong enough to make it as a starter? 23.3 LAD AA
123 Trevor Crowe CF Things may have finally started clicking late last year - hit .314/.384/.428 in the 2nd half 24.2 CLE AA
124 Bryan Anderson C 40.9% of his '07 XBH came in April; has potential to be an average hitter as a catcher 21.1 STL AA
125 Brett Cecil LHP Really limited XBH in R and NCAA - solid BB%, too; K% wasn't overpowering in NCAA 21.6 TOR SS
126 Daniel Cortes RHP May have turned corner in August - BB% way down, K% up; lots of upside (No. 2-3?) 20.9 KC A+
127 Max Sapp C Good contact and BB% in full-season debut - little power; makings to be an average C 19.9 HOU A
128 Carlos Carrasco RHP His success has come in favorable pitcher's environments; could be No. 4-5 or a RP 20.9 PHI AA
129 Gorkys Hernandez CF One of the fastest players in the lower minors; in a pitcher's park and league in '07 20.4 ATL A
130 Brad Lincoln RHP From 4th pick in '06 to TJ patient; little pro history; excellent NCAA arm; potential No. 2 22.7 PIT A
131 Clayton Tanner LHP Good GB pitcher with solid command and K rate; should be tested in CAL this season 20.2 SF A
132 Cedric Hunter CF Didn't power through the MWL by any means - but solid; enough speed to stick in CF? 19.9 SD A
133 Ben Revere CF Speedster was impressive in rookie ball after being selected 28th overall - .369 wOBA 19.7 MIN R
134 Henry Alberto Rodriguez RHP Has makings to be a dominant RP; .056 IsoPA, 25.3% K, 13.8% BB in full-season debut 20.9 OAK A
135 Casey Weathers RHP 07's 8th pick had stellar year as Vandy's closer (2 XBH in 49.1 IP); signed under slot 22.6 COL A
136 Nick Noonan 2B Was pretty solid across the board in debut - poor BB%; selected 32nd overall in '07 18.7 SF R
137 Oswaldo Sosa RHP A lot more dominant in FSL than AA; Ave. BB%, below-ave. K%; good IsoPA (.094) 22.4 MIN AA
138 Andrew Brackman RHP 2nd-highest upside of any NCAA pitcher in '07 draft?; '07 TJ patient and still very raw 22.2 NYY NCAA
139 Tony Thomas 2B Exploded on the scene as a Jr. at Florida; kept it up in the pros; 97th overall pick in '07 21.6 CHC SS
140 Tyler Herron RHP Great BB% and solid IsoPA; may not be more than a No. 5 but good bet to reach that 21.5 STL A
141 Kyle Lotzkar RHP Second-best prep arm out of Canada last year; solid pro debut; 53rd overall pick in '07 18.3 CIN R
142 Jon Niese LHP Substantial BB% improvement from '06 to '07, though he couldn't sustain K%; No. 4-5? 21.3 NYM A+
143 Edwardo Morlan RHP Among the top RP in the minors - 34.3% K, 6.9% BB; gives up a lot of extra-base hits 21.9 TB AA
144 Jeremy Hellickson RHP A potential No. 4-5; solid command (7.6% BB) and stuff (23.8% K) - 3.45 FIP last year 20.8 TB A
145 Alan Horne RHP Durability will decide if he's No. 5 or reliever; BB% rose every month from Apr. to Aug. 25.1 NYY AA
146 Max Ramirez C Had a .396 wOBA in Kinston and Bakersfield; traded in '06 and '07; OK power hitter 23.3 TEX A+
147 Drew Stubbs CF Couldn't get out of Low-A in full-season debut; big 2nd half; OK bet to reach bigs still 23.3 CIN A
148 Max Scherzer RHP Strong chance he's converted to a reliever; 12.5% BB in AA to go along with 23.8% K 23.5 ARI AA
149 Jack Egbert RHP Numbers are better than Horne's; potential No. 4-5 does great job limiting hard contact 24.7 CHW AA
150 Colton Willems RHP Excellent IsoPA (.085) says something about his ability to pitch; 12.3% K in '07, though 19.6 WAS SS
0 recs |
85 comments
Comments
Really
by t ball on Feb 19, 2008 10:42 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
glancing quickly down that list
by t ball on Feb 19, 2008 10:53 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You can click the link directly if you like.
by killa on Feb 19, 2008 11:06 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
link
by jpahk on Feb 19, 2008 11:27 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
lazy
(Actually if I were TRULY that lazy, I wouldn't have wasted time replying, right?)
by journeymen on Feb 19, 2008 11:28 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Project Prospect Top 150
Villalona has been #1 on every Giants' prospect list I've seen, while Tanner seldom breaks their top five.
Tanner, a 2006 product of local De La Salle High School, has indeed fared well in his two seasons of organized ball, pitching quite well in Low A last year until faltering in his last three starts. His forte to date has been inducing lots of ground balls.
by sharksrog on Feb 19, 2008 11:05 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
oops...
I'd give the guys at PP a bit more credit than that... leaving off a player like Villalona would only be something a community list might do.
by team name deleted on Feb 19, 2008 11:13 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Henry Sosa? Nate?
I can see why some might leave Nate Schierholtz off a Top 100, although I consider him the Giants #2 prospect right now. To leave him off a top 150 entirely confirms to me that he is, perhaps, the most underrated prospect in all of baseball.
by DrBGiantsfan on Feb 19, 2008 12:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
nope...
by doublestix on Feb 19, 2008 12:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Sosa/Schieholtz
Sosa had a good K% last year (26.7). But BB% is below average (11.3). And his jump in FIP from Low-A to High-A really concerns me (3.35 to 4.81) - I know he was in the California League but San Jose favors pitchers.
I can't really see Sosa becoming a No. 5 or a dominant enough reliever right now to be worthy of being ranked ahead of any of the guys who made our Top 150. Let's see how he fairs in the upper minors first.
I have a Schierholtz South Atlantic League baseball card displayed on my dresser - thanks Baseball America :). He's a good runner with some pop. The main reason he didn't make this list is because his walk rate is well below average. I don't know if he'll be able to get on base enough to become an average big leaguer.
Nonetheless, he just barely missed making our Top 150...came in at 155 - I have a list that goes 275+ deep that I put together to make sure I was giving enough candidates a close look.
by afoster on Feb 19, 2008 1:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Sosa and Schierholtz
Not saying that BB's are unimportant, but are we getting to the point where we are undervaluing good hitters who are free swingers?
by DrBGiantsfan on Feb 19, 2008 6:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Nah
I think Schierholtz can settle in as a .175-.195 isolated power guy in the big leagues - maybe something like Casey Kotchman or Conor Jackson without the walks...11-18 home runs with a .355 OBP. That's solid but below the big-league average, I believe.
by afoster on Feb 19, 2008 7:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
.355 OBP?
I think Nate could be about a .290 career hitter, which certainly isn't bad. I doubt the list of present hitters with a .290 or higher career average is very long. As an example, the Giants just paid $60 million for Aaron Rowand, and Aaron's career BA isn't .290.
But Rowand is a center fielder, while Nate is likely to be an average to below-average corner outfielder defensively. The hitting bar is clearly higher for corners.
I think Nate will hit for decent power, despite his being homerless in 112 major league at bats last season. That's a very small sample, but how can a good hitter get just two walks and hit nary a homer in that many at bats?
I think Nate needs to develop a more patient approach. For a power (sort of) hitter, he makes a lot of contact. But until he develops the patience to wait for more pitches he can drive, I don't see him hitting for as much power as his well-developed body would imply. And if he hits for contact but not power, I can't see him walking much -- ensuring a low OBP unless he becomes a .310 or higher career hitter.
I predicted last April when I first saw Nate play that he would be ready for the majors this year (not an especially bold prediction, although not without risk since it was only April). But barring the approach change I suggest, I don't see him having a particularly high ceiling.
I'm not sure if he has the head for it, but if I were the Giants, I would have tried Nate behind the plate. He played there through Little League, then moved to shortstop, then to third base. But there are so few lefty-hitting catchers. And Nate seems to have the arm and perhaps the agility to don the tools of ignorance.
If Nate could play behind the plate, at first base, both corner outfield slots and fill in in an emergency at third base, I would see him as a more valuable player.
That ship has likely already sailed. But he still might have time to change his hitting approach.
Not that his present one has worked badly for him. It's just not likely to work quite as well in the major leagues. Nate is far more likely to be a .280 hitter than a .333 hitter as he was at Fresno last season. Then his lack of walks become an issue.
by sharksrog on Feb 20, 2008 12:17 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
.355 OBP?
by DrBGiantsfan on Feb 20, 2008 12:57 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
It wouldn't take a bank shot
If Nate does it with average, that is perhaps the first thing many All-Star voters look at in a position player. If he does it with walks, that will likely mean he is indeed waiting for more pitches he can drive, likely resulting in good power.
Either way, not only does Nate's OBP go up, so almost certainly will his SLG, which will boost his OPS (which might be an abbreviation for OPportunity to Star :).
by sharksrog on Feb 20, 2008 4:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Did he qualify?
That said, I figure if I put one guy ahead of another on a prospect list, that means I would trade the lower-rated guy for the higher-rated guy. I wouldn't trade Angel Villalona, Tim Alderson, Madison Bumgarner or Wendell Fairley for Nate -- and I would have to think hard about trading Nick Noonan for him.
So without knowing the strength of the other 29 teams' top prospects, I certainly wouldn't think it was an oversight not to have Nate in a top 100 list. And it might not be not to have him on a top 150 grouping.
But I can see your argument here, Dr., and don't necessarily disagree with you.
by sharksrog on Feb 19, 2008 11:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Trade Test
by DrBGiantsfan on Feb 20, 2008 1:02 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Wait...
by jfish26101 on Feb 20, 2008 8:27 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Are You Kidding?
BTW, word is that Henry Sosa suffered a torn patellar tendon near the start of winter ball and will miss the first part of the season. Bad news!
Ironically, Sosa got his chance in Augusta last year only because Orlando Yntema went down with the same injury in spring training.
by DrBGiantsfan on Feb 20, 2008 10:22 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Alright :D
by jfish26101 on Feb 20, 2008 12:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Isn't that the same injury that Cal's
That knocked him out for the entire year, basically November through the middle of March (when the season ended-- I have no idea when he was cleared for practicing again).
Sounds like Sosa'll be out until midyear.
by PaulThomas on Feb 20, 2008 4:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think
But be it because he DOES change his approach or merely because I have underestimated him, I certainly hope he has a higher ceiling that I expect -- and that he reaches it!
Not that the Giants could use hitting. :)
by sharksrog on Feb 20, 2008 4:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Wow
by was385 on Feb 19, 2008 11:43 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Biggest Ommission
Also, if Fukudome can make it, Kuroda probably should as well.
by mckeeno on Feb 19, 2008 11:43 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Why?
by Brickhaus on Feb 19, 2008 12:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Very different pitchers
Kuroda - Durable righty with a more powerful repertoire including a forkball. Slotted as the #4 and should be an adequate (105 ERA+ or so) innings eater.
2007 ZiPs projection for Igawa - 4.77 ERA
2008 ZiPs projection for Kuroda - 3.95 ERA
by mckeeno on Feb 19, 2008 2:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
ZIPS
by cooper7d7 on Feb 19, 2008 3:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Not true
I agree they're not the same pitcher, but I'm not sure I'd say Kuroda has the more powerful repertoire coming out of Japan. When in Japan, Igawa was a lefty sitting at 89-91 (he was lower than that in the majors) with good control, a swing-and-miss change and a slider he used against lefties. MLB hitters didn't miss his change much, which led him to start nibbling a lot more than he did in Japan. Kuroda, on the other hand, is reportedly a righty sitting at 90-92 with a good slider, a swing-and-miss forkball (but, as with any forkball, it's only swing and miss if it fools people, because if the batter doesn't swing it will be a ball 9 times out of 10) and a shooto (which I've never seen used successfully against MLB hitters - it's like a slurve with less break, and every Japanese pitcher who's brought one over has scrapped it within a year). In Japan, Kuroda had a slightly lower walk rate (because he pitches off his fastball more than Igawa), but also had a much lower strikeout rate. His career ERA is also a half run higher than Igawa's was, and he's traditionally more homer-prone than Igawa, although I know next to nothing about Japanese park factors and the like.
In any case, coming immediately on the heels of Igawa, and being another Japanese pitcher who doesn't possess what most people would consider to be an elite arsenal, combined with the fact that he's already 33, I can see why a lot of people would be skeptical.
by Brickhaus on Feb 19, 2008 4:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Jones
He's a solid runner, though. I just don't see him as a solid bet to be an average regular. Seems like a No. 4 OF type - on a playoff-caliber team.
by afoster on Feb 19, 2008 1:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Netali Feliz
Texas has non one in the top 50, 4 in the top 100 total, and 9 between 100 - 150. Out if those 8, Duran, Teagarden, Davis and Hurley are pretty much the top 4 or 5 from Texas...
Weird list.
by laxtonto on Feb 19, 2008 11:51 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
I also don' remember
by rothe on Feb 19, 2008 12:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Hurley
He had a 4.26 in A+, 4.12 (37.0 IP) then 4.46 (88.2) in AA, and 5.47 in AAA. Granted he has been brought along quickly, but his production is pretty poor compared to most of the guys you see on this list.
Given that he was pretty much a No. 4-caliber starter in Double-A then a bad No. 5 in Triple-A, it's quite a gamble to expect Hurley to be more than a No. 4 in the bigs at this point.
by afoster on Feb 19, 2008 1:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
in addition
I think the list is great as a whole, mainly because I respect how much work was put into just typing it all up, not to mention the decision making processes.
I applaud the work as whole, even if I have disagreements with the placement of some names.
by IHateMitchMustain on Feb 19, 2008 6:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
IAN KENNEDY
by Maine Man on Feb 19, 2008 12:22 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Well
by demondeaconbaseball on Feb 19, 2008 1:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
+1
by auclairkeithbc on Feb 20, 2008 11:27 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't know if IK's over-hyped ...
by design28 on Feb 20, 2008 9:20 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
inexperience
It's completely understandable given that it's only 2 or 3 guys running that site and I don't know what kind of ins they have with teams and the scouting community, but it's an indication that they are relying more on what other scout evaluators produce than on their own opinions at this point.
by Galt on Feb 19, 2008 1:01 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Alot can change in 5 months.
I enjoyed this list alot.
by sully10x on Feb 19, 2008 1:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
what changed?
Fautino didn't even play winterball. He didn't set foot on a diamond yet moved up so precipitously?
Especially if their rankings are "largely based on statistics" as Adam mentions below, then there would be no reason to have such a move since their stats didn't change.
Is it that hard to imagine that as of October the PP guys just hadn't heard much about either player? And after an offseason of other people talking about the players (and BA releasing their top 20s, their handbook, Sickels, Law, and Goldstein putting out their materials, etc) that they became more informed about the prospect universe?
Like I said, it's not a bad thing, it just is indicative that they are just starting, don't have the contacts that they will hopefully develop, and that I currently view their lists a statistically-biased consolidation of other sites' prospect lists.
by Galt on Feb 19, 2008 1:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Stats
Since October, I've created a speed score and begun using stats like isolated power against for pitchers.
I have a massive spreadsheet with hundreds of minor leaguers that some of my readers helped me enter data for. I've been frantically polishing that sheet for the last three months.
I learned a lot about guys by stacking them up against each other in some of my new preferred metrics.
by afoster on Feb 19, 2008 2:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
FDLS
Mindsets change, it may mean they admitted a mistake before, it may mean they are influenced too much by people who shouldn't be influencing them, or it may mean that they are being influenced by other groups of writers, but none of that really matters or takes away from the fact that they sat down and compiled this list with at least some research and anecdotes to show for it.
You go sit down and make a top 150, i personally would take forever because I would take it seriously and critique most of my selections' placement.
by IHateMitchMustain on Feb 19, 2008 6:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
de los Santos
He made a strong argument that sold me more on de los Santos. Then I looked through some park factors and saw that Winston-Salem is a park where a lot of home runs are hit.
That's what changed for me with de los Santos, in large.
by afoster on Feb 19, 2008 8:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Not sure about that
Have you seen anyone else do an end of the season top prospect list? Was it pretty?
I've learned a ton by studying all these guys this offseason. The differences you seen in that end of the year list and this one are the result of player-by-player analysis, not stealing other people's work.
You're making quite an unfair and disrespectful assumption here. Shoot me an email at adamf@projectprospect.com if you'd like more detail on my methods.
by afoster on Feb 19, 2008 1:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
it's an assumption, but not disrespectful
It's not blasphemy to assume that you use what other people/sites/experts write in regards to players to inform your rankings. Especially over an entire offseason when those experts can digest the previous year's performance and more explicitly highlight some players who excelled.
by Galt on Feb 19, 2008 1:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Not to speak for PP but,
I do know that AF looks at lot of secondary stats (ISOP vs for pitchers), league factors, etc and once one individually analyzes ~ 300 players it does seem completely fathomable for a few to rise/fall quite a bit due to simply "peeling back the onion" over a few months
by KABOOM on Feb 19, 2008 2:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Scouting vs Stats...
I may have missed this somewhere, but do you reference the "largely based on statistical analysis" somewhere on your site? It may answer some questions right up front. Also, if this list is built using that metric, how do you explain guys like Porcello (no stats) and Villalona (merely ok stats in Rk league) being ranked so high. Also, guys like Fmart, McCutchen, and Moustakas would seem to fall into the scouting/tools category, and not really the stats category at this point, no? I would think a Teagarden or Lowrie would be higher than based on stats.
by ftheyankees on Feb 19, 2008 6:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Stats
http://www.projectprospect.com/how-our-rankings-work/
Updated since then, I used a blend of BB/K, IsoP, wOBA, and a speed score that I created to grade each hitter's production this year. For pitchers, I went with K%, BB%, FIP, and HR/BF.
I'm already strongly considering using isolated power against rather than HR/BF for pitchers.
Numbers are only valuable in good sample sizes. I like having 200+ plate appearances for hitters and 50.0+ innings for pitchers.
But this isn't always attainable, like with recent draft picks - as you mentioned. Also, there's a difference between a 20-year-old mashing the ball in Triple-A and a 25-year-old accomplishing the same feat.
Blended based on the amount of pro experience a player has, I scored guys on their production, progression, and amateur value in my ranking program this year.
Production is described above. I use two-year weighted samples. Progression is a score based on the player's age compared to his level - two-year sample when possible. Amateur value is when a player was selected in the draft - amended for above-slot signing bonuses. I also look at signing bonus data for international players.
As a player gains more professional service time, I put less and less weight into his amateur value. After a certain period of time, I completely ignore a player's amateur value.
Let me know if you'd like any more information. I'm very open to sharing my methods and looking for ways to improve them.
by afoster on Feb 19, 2008 6:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Funny
by NMUWildcat027 on Feb 19, 2008 7:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Joe Pesci
It's also NOT SPAM. Adam wasn't the one who posted it here and John has said before that it's all good. The list has generated discussion about prospects, which is all that really matters.
For the record, I think Galt raised a very good point, but I disagree severely with what he deemed the ommissions amounting to. A bit of an over-reaction IMO.
by slurve on Feb 19, 2008 7:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I am Sorry
Once again I apologize to everyone who read my post and was offended by any sentence in this post. I realize now that this was a wonderful topic because at least it has generated a lot of good discussion about prospects. I will spread the word of project prospect across the web in an effort to spur more excellent discussion.
by NMUWildcat027 on Feb 20, 2008 1:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Rowell and Mills
I'm really surprised by that.
by Galt on Feb 19, 2008 1:03 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Hey Adam
by Dfarth on Feb 19, 2008 3:27 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
+1
Tommy Hanson
Brent Lillibridge
Brandon Jones
by Jay212033 on Feb 19, 2008 4:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Braves
I was huge on him in Low-A. Then some people who had seen him told me that he doesn't have the arsenal to succeed in the upper minors - was just overpowering hitters with his fastball in Rome and it's too straight of a pitch to be effective against more advanced hitters. Gets promoted to High-A and gets crushed. I'm really doubtful that he can be more than a mediocre reliever - if that - at this point.
Copy-pasting a Lillibridge response I gave to an emailer this morning:
I see Lillibridge as a filler-act SS or utility man in the bigs. His a solid all around player, just nothing sticks out with his offensive skill set for me. I think he was pretty much an average hitter in Double-A and Triple-A. And he's now 24 and hasn't made it to the big leagues.
I'm not sure why Lillibridge gets as much fanfare as he does - Futures Gamer. He was drafted 121st overall in 2005. His production has been pretty mediocre - compared to the top prospects in the game. And he hasn't exactly been brought along through the minors at a record pace.
I actually was talking to someone last night who had seen him exhibit his skills this week - guy with lots of scouting and pro player connections. He wanted to know why Lillibridge has the amount of hype around his that he does. My answer was the same as what I'm giving you right now: I really don't know.
I'll be pretty surprised if Lillibridge becomes anything more than an average hitter in the bigs. I can't see him passing up Yunel Escobar on the Braves' depth chart. Perhaps others believe his speed and athleticism will make him a better player than I can envision. I believe speed and athleticism are weighted too heavily in some circles.
I responded to a question about Jones above. I see him as a No. 4 OF in the bigs. He may be fast and athletic, but his production doesn't lead me to believe he'll be an average big leaguer.
by afoster on Feb 19, 2008 5:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
the reason
Hanson, I've talked to a number of people who have seen plenty of him. He's got a mid-90's heat with a bit of movement, a knee-buckling curve, and a decent changeup. If that isn't the stuff to succeed, I don't know what is. Command is the only issue.
Jones may not have the highest potential but he has above average power, speed, plate discipline, contact ability, and pretty good defense in left. Again, absurd that he is not on the list.
It seems to me like this list was done so far from what anyone else thinks to get attention. The placement of some of these guys is just downright ludicrous. I remember reading the Braves top five and Jordan Schafer was fourth on the list. Fourth? Absolutely crazy.
by was385 on Feb 19, 2008 5:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Ehh...
Afterall, it's not YOUR ranking list. Even after the answers given, I feel Jones should be on there, and probably Lillibridge too. I've never really been that high on Hanson though.
John said something a while back about the subjectivity of lists- and Adam has clearly explained his reasons. Chill out, and when you make your own list, remember to put all your Braves on there.
by killa on Feb 19, 2008 7:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Teheran
That said, I definitely keep a close watch on reported six-figure international guys from the get go.
by afoster on Feb 19, 2008 4:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Reply
As for the reasons for not ranking some of the Braves prospects, did you ask around about some of the guys you did rank? Steve Evarts and Cody Johnson may not even be top 200 guys but their ranked ahead of guys like Jones, Lillibridge and Hanson. And your explaination on Hanson isn't going to cut it unless you see this guy in person, which I have, then you wouldn't know how good this his stuff really is. You should actually wait to judge him after this year when he has time to make adjustments.
by Jay212033 on Feb 19, 2008 7:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
k
I have not seen Hanson in person, but I was able to learn a lot about him during my time at Baseball America. I was essentially the Low-A beat writer for BA from April to early-June and I requested a piece on Hanson from a Rome writer during that time. I tried to mirror his research with my own and reach a sound position from there.
Because Hanson's success varied so much from Low-A to High-A, I tried to find explanations for his struggles. But I've yet to hear an "excuse" for them...just anecdotes that detail what happened.
I wonder if he has the secondary to be an solid starter in the pros. I continue to hear that Hanson throws a lot of fastballs. Even guys with great fastballs have told me that they try not to rely on the pitch too much - Joba Chamberlain said he throws his 65-70% of the time, Clayton Kershaw told me about 65% of the time.
by afoster on Feb 19, 2008 8:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Kinda What I Was Thinking
by Dfarth on Feb 19, 2008 8:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
No experience
I saw Bumgarner and Brackman pitch in person last year. And I studied Price, Porcello, Parker, Aumont and Beavan pretty closely.
It was easy to get info on Price. And I did a fair amount of research on the prep side of the game last year.
by afoster on Feb 19, 2008 8:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
OK but
And back to Hanson he's not the only guy to get moved up and struggle but still make the top 150 so like I said it premature to judge him based on one subpar half season. After this season if he struggles then you could jump to those conclusions.
by Jay212033 on Feb 20, 2008 12:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Teheran
The San Francisco Chronicle published an article on Angel Villalona a few months after he signed with this headline and subhead:
"Big Kid, Big Hopes: 16-year-old holds 40/40 promise"
There isn't much information out there about Teheran right now. I don't feel like I know enough about him to rank him as one of the game's elite prospects.
by afoster on Feb 20, 2008 3:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
No Chuck Lofgren?
by kiloman on Feb 19, 2008 11:57 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Lofgren
His walk rate is below-average. His strikeout rate is below average...was hit hard in Double-A.
That said, Lofgren seemed like a really good guy when I talked to him at the Futures Game. I hope he has more big-league success than I project him to.
by afoster on Feb 20, 2008 2:36 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
but what is his stuff like?
by was385 on Feb 20, 2008 12:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You again
Maybe you should think about the flip side of the coin?
I try to make decisions around the quantifiable aspects of the game. Scouting has a lot more room for subjectivity.
The term stuff is so subjective to begin with. What makes a guy's stuff good. Does command play a large roll in how a pitcher's stuff is graded? Can some pitchers have better stuff than others but don't use it as well? Does a guy who has mediocre stuff but four offerings that he can locate have better overall stuff than a guy with three solid offerings that he can't throw in any count?
Pitch sequences. Ability to locate the ball down in the zone. How do those two factors weigh into the stuff debate?
And I think tools labels are just as subjective as stuff. Not to say their isn't value in looking into tools and stuff, but those aspects of evaluation are occasionally weighted a lot more heavily than I'm comfortable with.
by afoster on Feb 20, 2008 3:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You again
by was385 on Feb 20, 2008 6:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Also,
by was385 on Feb 20, 2008 6:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I agree with you...
You need to remember that a top 100 is a pretty small percentage of the players out there. Arguing over a guy being ranked in the 20's as opposed to the 80's really isn't that big of a deal. He is still being placed in the top tier of talent. They probably do miss some people who aren't on the list but everyone does. I don't always see eye to eye with Foster/Loberstein and I don't necessarily agree with some of the metrics being used but I do think they are moving towards a blend of scouting/quantitative analysis which is where everyone should be moving. I know you have read JS's book, stats are just a tool in your tool box to use in player evaluation. I think they are doing a hell of a job for only being up and running for 16 months or so and basically only have 2 writers with a little help from the community.
by jfish26101 on Feb 20, 2008 8:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
my original beef
by was385 on Feb 20, 2008 8:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Well that is fine but...
I know you are a Braves fan and I'm not trying to insinuate that you are being biased but if Lillibridge was never a Brave, would you care? If he never came over in the LaRoche deal, would you have gotten that fired up over it? I'd guess probably not. It's their opinion and they are entitled to it. I know some said they felt they were just pumping out the same old lists but I think it's the opposite. I think PP has sometimes over reached on certain players trying to be different than the rest of the sites/publications out there. Heck I think they still are in certain cases but everyone does that. Sickels has made stands on players that have generated uproar from the community, does that make his opinion any less credible?
It's far to early to tell if they are wrong or not. For all you know, they could be right and you could be wrong. Even if they are wrong, I think a study came out that said 50% of BA's top 100 list fail to become MLB average starters? I might be off but I know it's a fair portion of the list. You really should try not to be so overly critical when the jury is still out.
by jfish26101 on Feb 20, 2008 8:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Also if you remember...
by jfish26101 on Feb 20, 2008 8:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
no one
Whenever I've given my opinion of things on this list, it seems that people say why do you care or that I shouldn't be giving my opinion. The whole point of posting it here was to have a discussion and I did so, which I guess offended some people.
by was385 on Feb 20, 2008 11:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
It isn't why do you care...
by jfish26101 on Feb 21, 2008 12:34 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
did I not just go over that
Seriously, your first response to me where I guess you inferred that I was being a dick was after I argued that scouting could dissect the term good stuff, citing Jair Jurrjens as an example. One of us is being a dick but I'm pretty sure it's not me.
by was385 on Feb 21, 2008 12:43 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Debates
I didn't forget Lillibridge. I've been following him since he was a Pirate.
His wOBA was .327 last year. That's not very impressive. He was primarily an up-the-middle hitter with pull power in Triple-A - all his home runs went to left according to Firstinning.com's data.
And his walk rate went from 14.3% in High-A to 8.4% in Double-A and then 5.7% in Triple-A.
I don't see him as a safe bet to become an above-average MLB hitter.
by afoster on Feb 21, 2008 8:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Lofgren
by kiloman on Feb 20, 2008 1:25 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

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