2008 PECOTA team rankings

by RollingWave on Feb 16, 2008 2:46 AM EST Comment 13 comments

http://baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/

biggest surpise (or maybe not quiet) is the system has the M's finishing... LAST in their division.

the Yankee pitching does surprisingly well, and the White Sox pitching will look very ugly.

the rankings

ALE

Yanks
RS
Jays
Rays
Os

ALC

Indians
Tigers
White Sox
Twins
Royals

ALW

Angels
A's ( o_O)
Rangers
M's

NLE
Mets
Braves
Phillies
Marlins
Nationals

NLC
Cubs
Brewers
Reds
Astros (heh)
Cardinals (ouch)
Pirates (tie consescutive losing season record)

NLW
D-backs
Dodgers
Padres
Rockies
Giants

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Comments

No bedard for M's in those projections

They do not give much love to King Felix or Carlos Sliva either.

So from that stand point with no good pitching they would rightfully finish last.

I happend to disagree and see them at aroun 87 Wins

by novaoakland on Feb 16, 2008 3:42 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Nate Silver says

that it does reflect the Bedard trade in his blog entry on BP

by RollingWave on Feb 16, 2008 4:34 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

odd

When you click on SEA it does not show him.

by novaoakland on Feb 16, 2008 5:37 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

From the article talking about it

"And yes, that does reflect the Erik Bedard trade, even though he's still listed with the Orioles on the depth charts until we put together our next run of the PECOTAs over the weekend."

"You also must admit, that outside of the facts, I made a compelling argument!"

by jbluestone on Feb 16, 2008 9:14 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

I am pretty amazed

however, that they have the A's finish 2nd (granted all 3 teams have a sub .500 record),

It seems as that eventhough they arent forecasting full season health for harden, or full season SP role for Duch that they will be so effective in their 100-130 ip that their VORP contribution will outshine the Ma's bottom 3 SP (batista, washburn and silva). And it looks like the young hitters are projected to perform better then the Ms lineup which admittedly is pretty average.

It looks like the Rangers will bash themselves to a slightly better record.

While this makes sense, i think that the M's will be 2nd and be in the race with the angles till pretty well into september.

"You also must admit, that outside of the facts, I made a compelling argument!"

by jbluestone on Feb 16, 2008 9:19 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Just realizes

The pecota numbers that are projected when you click on the team depth chart appears to be (from what i can tell) their 2007 projected numbers. I think once the pecota cards come out for each player it will be clearer.

"You also must admit, that outside of the facts, I made a compelling argument!"

by jbluestone on Feb 16, 2008 11:07 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

This year's PECOTA seems off

Just to dive into one area, neither Mauer nor Morneau are projected to have an OPS above 800 coming into the prime of their careers. I could go on and on about other projections, but that sounds really fishy to me.

cmathewson

by cmathewson on Feb 16, 2008 1:03 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Mauer's legs

are a big concern.

as for Morneau, I'm not sure. I think that's off too, I expect him to bounce back a bit considering the context of his season last year (he has surprisingly low K for a lefty slugging type) but it's not like he was that much over .800 last year.

by RollingWave on Feb 16, 2008 9:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Morneau

Well, he had a .926 OPS in 2006. You would expect some regression tot he mean in 2007. I think the pendulum swung back farther than most people expected, especially late in the year. Here is his OPS/month:

April: 879
May: 1047
June: 751
July: 1029
August: 648
September: 657
Overall: 834

So he was in line to match his 2006 OPS and he slumped late. Going into his 27 year old year, you would expect him to hit about the midpoint between 2006 and 2007. Not to regress further.

cmathewson

by cmathewson on Feb 17, 2008 12:33 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'd certainly agree

I don't have subscriber yet (probably get it next year) so i'm not sure why they project this, maybe it's something to do with his historical comps?

ZIPS is much more optimistic on him, they have his comp as Kent Hrbek and Boog Powell though, two very good but not exceptional guys that both faded a little early .

by RollingWave on Feb 17, 2008 8:03 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

M's

I think the M's win the west.

by emac2 on Feb 16, 2008 7:19 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Do you?

Do you really think Tacoma will be that good this year? :) Actually, the Mariners probably ARE a good team to improve this season. But I'm far from sure they'll improve enough to win the west.

by sharksrog on Feb 17, 2008 5:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

improvement

from their pythag record is likely, improving significantly from their actual record last year seems like a stretch.

the pitchin most likely will get a lot better. but I just can't see the offesne being even as mediocare as last year, let alone improve. in fact. it's not a huge stretch to say that they have a significantly chance in finishing around the bottom 3rd in the AL in RS this year with even a little tought luck.

by RollingWave on Feb 18, 2008 3:02 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs