Top Prospects of 2003

by John Sickels on Feb 14, 2008 1:53 PM EST in News Comment 38 comments

2003 was the first year I did a 50/50 list, Top 50 hitters and Top 50 pitchers. I decided to separate them since they are two different species that have to be judged in different ways. I find that when I split them up like that, I thought I did a better job of judging them. Pitches and hitters are valued and analyzed so differently, I think it works better this way. I know some disagree, but I like the system.

This list is hard to judge since so many of these players are still building their careers. Win Shares is just a way to put into one number what they have done so far. Its's not a perfect statistic. Obviously 15 years from now the WS totals will be much different.

Mark Teixeira, 3B, Grade A, 104 win shares
Joe Mauer, C, 82 win shares
Victor Martinez, C, 97 win shares
Brandon Phillips, SS, 37 win shares
Mike Cuddyer, OF, 60 win shares
Jose Reyes, SS, 87 win shares
Hee Seop Choi, 1B, 26 win shares
Scott Hairston, 2B, Grade A-, 9 win shares
Miguel Cabrera, 3B, 127 win shares
Travis Hafner, 1B, 98 win shares
Jason Stokes, 1B, ruined by injuries
Justin Morneau, 1B, 65 win shares
Casey Kotchman, 1B, 21 win shares
Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, 46 win shares
Marlon Byrd, OF, Grade B+, 44 win shares
Jose Lopez, SS, 33 win shares
Jeff Mathis, C, 2 win shares, disappointing bat
Lyle Overbay, 1B, 68 win shares
Juan Rivera, OF, 47 win shares
Jose Castillo, SS, 26 win shares
John Buck, C, 31 win shares
Laynce Nix, OF, bad plate discipline crippled his chances
Shin-Soo Choo, OF, 5 win shares, played well in 2006 for the Indians
Jayson Werth, OF, 38 win shares
Rocco Baldelli, OF, 45 win shares
David Wright, 3B, 103 win shares
Khalil Greene, SS, 71 win shares
Bobby Crosby, SS, 36 win shares
Justin Huber, C, may get trapped in Triple-A
John-Ford Griffin, OF, Triple-A slugger
Hanley Ramirez, SS, 54 win shares
Brendan Harris, INF, 14 win shares
Chris Snelling, OF, injuries
Xavier Nady, OF, 40 win shares
Ken Harvey, 1B, 15 win shares then vanished, injuries, too fat, bad glove
Todd Linden, OF, 7 win shares, generally disappointing
Jeremy Brown, C, Triple-A catcher
Brad Nelson, 1B, minor league slugger, injuries, could still contribute
Kevin Youkilis, 3B, 53 win shares
Jason Pridie, OF, will get to play this year in Minnesota
Jake Gautreau, 2B, stuck in the minors
Mike Restovich, OF, Triple-A slugger, never got a real chance
Joe Thurston, 2B, Grade B, in the minors
Tony Alvarez, OF, 1 win share, topped out in Triple-A
Chad Tracy, 3B, 52 win shares
Wilson Betemit, SS, 22 win shares
Josh Hamilton, OF, 13 win shares
Joe Borchard, OF, bust
Jason Lane, OF, 32 win shares
Russ Adams, INF, 16 win shares

Top 50 Pitchers

Jesse Foppert, RHP, Grade A-, 2 win shares, ruined by injuries
Francisco Rodriguez, RHP, 63 win shares
Rich Harden, RHP, 37 win shares
Jerome Williams, RHP, 20 win shares, then lost velocity, stagnated
Kurt Ainsworth, RHP, injuries
Rafael Soriano, RHP, 24 win shares
Adam Wainwright, RHP, 24 win shares
Gavin Floyd, RHP, 2 win shares, struggled to establish himself
Jeremy Bonderman, RHP, Grade B+, 40 win shares
Scott Kazmir, LHP, 45 win shares
Ricardo Rodriguez, RHP, 7 win shares, injuries, inconsistency
Aaron Heilman, RHP, 26 win shares
Macay McBride, LHP, 4 win shares, looking for a role
Brian Tallet, LHP, 11 win shares
Billy Traber, LHP, 4 win shares
Colby Lewis, RHP, 2 win shares, major command issues
Jason Arnold, RHP, lost velocity, topped out in Triple-A
Clint Nageotte, RHP, control problems
Ryan Hannaman, LHP, injuries
John VanBenschoten, RHP, injuries
Kris Honel, RHP, injuries, loss of velocity, etc.
Ben Kozlowski, LHP, injuries, a good Triple-A pitcher though
Jason Young, RHP, injuries
Sean Burnett, LHP, injuries
Jon Figueroa, LHP, injuries
Joel Hanrahan, RHP, erratic career, still trying to get established
Boof Bonser, RHP, 11 win shares
Johan (Ervin) Santana, RHP, 23 win shares
Andy Sisco, LHP, 7 win shares in '05 then fell apart with control problems
Bobby Basham, RHP, injuries
Angel Guzman, RHP, injuries, still trying to get established
Joe Valentine, RHP, control problems
Seong Song, RHP, Triple-A pitcher
Franklyn German, RHP, 7 win shares
Dontrelle Willis, LHP, 71 win shares
Don Levinski, RHP, injuries
Dewon Brazelton, RHP, 2 win shares
Dustin McGowan, RHP, 11 win shares
Zach Greinke, RHP, 24 win shares
John Patterson, RHP, Grade B, 19 win shares
Kenny Nelson, RHP, lost velocity
Cliff Lee, LHP, 35 win shares
Jimmy Gobble, LHP, 19 win shares
Andrew Brown, RHP, 4 win shares
Mike Nicolas, RHP, disappeared due to control problems, injuries
Luke Hagerty, LHP, injuries
John Rheinecker, LHP, 3 win shares
Taylor Buchholz, RHP, 5 win shares
Travis Foley, RHP, a good Double-A reliever
Mike Gosling, LHP, 2 win shares, injuries

0 recs | Comment 38 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

wow!

8 of the Top 10 hitters are hits. thats pretty good.

by daveh33 on Feb 14, 2008 2:05 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

TINSTAAPP

I'm sure this sample overstates the case, but splitting them out like that really does highlight the dramatic differences between the two categories.

It's be interesting to go back and split the other classes up like that...

by Tim J on Feb 14, 2008 2:11 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Overstated

I agree, but I think this class in particular isn't a very good example. I wasn't high on many of these pitchers to begin with - I think most saw this class of pitchers as weak even before injuries happened over time.

Send your top 50-100 prospects to slurveone@yahoo.com!!!

by slurve on Feb 14, 2008 4:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

i don't know

that's what jpahk said about the entire '90s before.

at some point, it's time to acknowledge that we just don't really know what we're doing when we look at pitching prospects.

by bleedjaxblue on Feb 14, 2008 6:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

i did say that

of course, the entire '90s wasn't as bad as this 2003 crop. wow. maybe i should rethink that idea. or at least extend the '90s to include 2003. hooray for arbitrary endpoints!

by jpahk on Feb 15, 2008 11:26 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

haha....definitely

though i'm still willing to bet the only pitching lists that still look good (besides the occasional extraordinarily lucky ones) are those that are too recent to hate them yet

by bleedjaxblue on Feb 15, 2008 8:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Holy Guacamole

the pitchers list is a perfect illustration of why there's no such thing as a pitching prospect. ONE-THIRD of those guys were undone by injury within the next four years. Maybe six good players on the list -- although a few could resurrect their careers. Wow.

by mhsiegel14 on Feb 14, 2008 2:13 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Giants pitching

I wasn't following the minors as closely in 03, but man that list has to make DrB and others cry.

The Dodgers won't win a playoff series until the Cool-a-Coo returns.

by mckeeno on Feb 14, 2008 2:54 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

You bet

As a giants fan, It kind of felt for a moment there like we would be competitive forever. Wow were we wrong.

by tacomaorange on Feb 14, 2008 5:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

AFW

Oh man, I saw this list and was getting ready to write exactly that. Just looking at it makes me want to cry. Cain, Lincecum, Lowry, et al are making up for it to some extent, but just think of the trade possiblities.

Foppy was the most anticipated and the biggest disappointment, by far.

Ainsworth was my favorite. No one dominant pitch, but at least 5 good ones that he could throw for strikes on any count. A very savvy pitcher in his brief career. Just heartbreaking.

by DrBGiantsfan on Feb 14, 2008 6:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Huber

Huber has really been screwed over. He should have been in the majors two years ago, but he has yet to be given a chance. Last year the Royals traded for Ross Gload to block him. It's absurd. He might've been pretty solid, but it's getting to the point that he might be more of a Brian Daubach at best.

by MontrealMets on Feb 14, 2008 3:27 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

you mean

when he hit .326/.417/.560 in AA/AAA in 2005?
before hitting 278/.358/.480 in 2006 and .283/.343/.537 in 2007?

His k/bb is slowly worsening- I think he's getting frustrated

BUT- he's not a catcher anymore, and not catching means he's a 1b/DH which means he really has to hit.

But then the Royals gave 320 ABs to Ross Gload last year- Gload was 31 - and while he may have been unfairly overlooked in the past- there's very little reason to think he was better than Huber- and Huber at 24 could still get better.

by Johnny Ruin on Feb 14, 2008 3:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

restovich

One of Restovich's problems is that he's never played in a really good hitting environment- one year in Edmonton, that's about it.

One of his Edmonton teammates was Casey Blake- a similar hitter but Restovich was better (that year and for his minor league career)- Blake got an MLB job the next year at age 29-
his best year coming at age 30 when he hit .271/.354/.486 for Cleveland.

Restovich's biggest problem now is that in his last three "chances" he didn't hit at all. Pittsburgh did give him 84 ABs so I guess you can say he got a chance from them, but 12 ABs from the Cubbies and 28 from the Nationals?

Probably better than Blake- but that's not quite good enough to FORCE your way into a role...

by Johnny Ruin on Feb 14, 2008 3:29 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Restovich

got jobbed all the way around. He was left off the 25 man roster in favor of players like Corky Miller and Brent Abernathy. He had looked good in his September callups the previous 3 years. The Twins had so many promising OF prospects back then. They should have really did him and the organization a favor and traded him before he died on the vine. I still think that he very well could have been a huge impact player if he would have ever been given a chance.

I am just now reaching the age of Dusty Baker prospectdum. maybe i should give Krivsky a call

by Terry Ryan Jr on Feb 14, 2008 3:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The Twins had so many promising OF prospects back

I know, but they were all tweeners so to speak- guys who all looked like they'd be good but not great, and all seemingly stagnated from either rotting in AAA or on the MLB bench

Minny let the value of these guys slip away- should have traded them sooner when they still had value-

The Twins in the early years of this century had obvious strengths and holes- a lot of the talent they had coming up did not match their holes- they really needed to move that talent to reconfigure it to match their holes- they didn't do it.

by Johnny Ruin on Feb 14, 2008 5:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah I can agree to an extent

They had 2 OF jewels in Cuddyer and Restovich and a bunch of guys like Lew Ford, Mike Ryan, Bobby Kielty, and Dustan Mohr.

Restovich was in a whole different class than that of those listed below. Restovich was no tweener, and to this day I think that he would have been an Adam Dunn if he was ever given a chance. The power in his bat was and I still believe is a real tool.

It wasn't as if the other guys couldn't contribute. The only one of those guys that they ever flipped was Kielty but they all had a bit of value at one time or another.

Restovich was just the worst case in many cases that the Twins made BONEHEAD judgement calls on players choosing replacement level over players that have a bright future.

Castro over Bartlett
Heintz over Alex Romero
Lew Ford over anyone with a pulse

I am just now reaching the age of Dusty Baker prospectdum. maybe i should give Krivsky a call

by Terry Ryan Jr on Feb 15, 2008 2:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

More on pitchers

There is definitely an object lesson here. A Grade A pitching prospect probably has the value of a Grade B position prospect (remembering that the pre-free agency years are the important ones).

Jeremy Bonderman or Dustin McGowan or Scott Kazmir might go on to have a top drawer career, but there was absolutely no comparison in the two lists in value when it counts. Most years, it would be like that.

by Mike Green on Feb 14, 2008 3:37 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Crazy

That's an argument for TINSTAAPP if I've ever seen one...

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Feb 14, 2008 6:03 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

TINSTAAPP

Okay, I've read about this several times, but I still can guess. What is TINSTAAPP?

by journeymen on Feb 14, 2008 11:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

An acronym for

"There is no such thing as a pitching prospect".

It's a retarded philosophy and I don't care how often people use attrition rates to validate it.

by TIF on Feb 15, 2008 1:51 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

wait a minute

back in the 70s and 80s the main stream media when discussing prospects (which they did much less frequently than now) assumed a basic philosophy-

pitching prospects are predictable, you could see their stuff and know how well they would do in the MLB- hitters were wholly unpredictable you had no idea how they would react to MLB pitching until they faced it.

That "philosophy" was of course completely wrong, as numerous studies have shown- hitting prospects are much more predictable than pitchers...

pitchers

get hurt more than hitters (in a career altering way)
fail to develop, most (not all) 20 year old hitters improve from 20-21-22 etc...

20 year old pitchers? maybe 1/3 regress even with no overt injury, 1/3 seemingly stagnate, 1/3 actually see their stuff improve from 21 to 22 etc... command? some pitchers improve some don't...

TINSTAAPP is an exaggeration, but if your choices are

Pitchers are more projectable than hitting prospects; and
TINSTAAPP

well TINSTAAPP is less wrong

Look at all the complete 100% busts on the pitching side of ANY prospect list- nearly half these guys would love to have Hee Seop Choi's MLB "career"

Then look at Johan Santana- best pitcher in baseball, was so highly regarded as a prospect that he was let go in the Rule 5 draft.

When was the last time a position player of equivalent value was let go in Rule 5? (Clemente doesn't count- Rule 5 was very different back then)

by Johnny Ruin on Feb 15, 2008 10:37 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: wait a minute

I don't have anything to say about the 70s and 80s in terms of prospect predictability, so I won't comment. However...

TINSTAAPP is an exaggeration, but if your choices are

Pitchers are more projectable than hitting prospects; and

TINSTAAPP

well TINSTAAPP is less wrong

"Exaggeration" and "less wrong" don't fix the retarded nature of TINSTAAPP. Pitcher attrition rates don't automatically mean that you should abandon projecting or prospecting developing pitchers. You still have to groom and create talent and there is no reason to start saying "Well, Pitcher A has great command, great stuff, and several pitches in his arsenal, but because pitchers get hurt and don't live up to their potential... ignore him."

Sure, pitching prospects have become frustrating to rank and develop, but that doesn't mean you abandon everything because someone comes up with a catchy acronym.

by TIF on Feb 16, 2008 11:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Jake Gautreaux

In fairness to Jake Gautreaux, he caught a case of colitis, which pretty much derailed any chance he had. The same thing happened to former Tiger Adam Pettyjohn.

by Edman85 on Feb 14, 2008 6:03 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Sigh

This Twins fan longs for the days when we had 3 of the top 12 hitting prospects.

Thanks for adding the grade delineations!

by AucklandGM on Feb 14, 2008 7:43 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

TINSTAAPP

There is no such thing as a pitching prospect

Dating Patsy's little sister!

by Jdog on Feb 15, 2008 12:05 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Hee Seop Choi

Dude keeps showing up on these lists. John, when are we going to get the Failed Prospect post?

by DrBGiantsfan on Feb 15, 2008 12:49 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

TINSTAAPP

The flip side of "There is no such thing as a pitching prospect" is that you can pick up guys that are lower on the prospect ladder but close to the majors on the cheap and many of those turn out very well. Brandon Webb debuted in 2003 but didn't make the top 50. Chad Cordero, Dan Haren, JJ Putz, and Jose Valverde debuted in 2003 and didn't make the list. Use the top picks for hitters, the low picks for pitchers.

by LindInMoskva on Feb 15, 2008 1:16 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

JJ Putz

Was nothing until he developed a grip on his splitfingered fastball. Before that, he threw a fastball straight as an arrow and a slider that fooled nobody.

Done at the major league level, too. This game is weird sometimes.

by TIF on Feb 15, 2008 1:56 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

But it's always that little thing

The difference between failure and dominance is so little for pitchers. There is a reason that John always puts the covet of "if he brings his command" or "if his change-up develops" whatever level they do it at. I agree TINSTAAPP is flawed, but I agree that pitchers are much more volatile and that no-name pitchers come out of the wood-work more often then hitters. This is why John makes hitter and pitcher lists, but at the same time this is why other people make comprehensive lists. The chances of a top prospect making a major league impact is still a lot better then a no-name so that pitcher is worth a hitting prospect who is more likely to be decent but less likely to be dominate compared to his peers

by Trenchtown on Feb 15, 2008 3:49 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Player development is getting better too

I don't think pitching injuries will ever go away, especially amongst the studs in the minors, but teams are getting better about not overworking their kids and working on their mechanics so they have a greater chance of avoiding injury.

Derek Zumsteg did some lengthy work on top pitching prospects of each team during the last decade or so and found that the attrition rate seemed to vary by franchise. I'd like to see in a few years how many top pitchers will make it to the majors over the next decade or so.

by TIF on Feb 15, 2008 7:36 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Webb

Both statheads and scouts completely whiffed on Webb- extreme groundball pitcher with high K rates?

That's what both scouts and stathead's profess to look for-
pitched in absolutely brutal hitting environments coming up through the Arizona system- hitter's parks in hitters leagues- pitched in 6 r/g envronments whereas someone pitching in the FSL or midwest league might have a 4r/g environment

Lancaster, El Paso, Tucson- a league average ERA would be 5.00 in those parks-

by Johnny Ruin on Feb 15, 2008 10:43 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Nageotte

Was also ruined by injuries, not just control problems. After 2004, he never hit 90+ on the gun regularly again. Without his velocity, his two seam fastball broke out of the zone too often, leading to the increase in walks. His slider was also completely missing off the table.

All of this related to injuries.

by TIF on Feb 15, 2008 1:53 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Nady

Anybody else surprised to see 40 Win Shares next to Nady's name? Doesn't it feel like he's done next to nothing thus far in his career?

40 Win Shares seems like a lot for a marginal 4th OF who's finally gotten a shot last year.

If it wasn't for disappointments, I wouldn't have any appointments.

by kings33 on Feb 15, 2008 10:41 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Nady

has nearly 2000 MLB PAs, equivalent to 3 full seasons- 40 winshares is not a whole lot all things considered.

by Johnny Ruin on Feb 15, 2008 10:45 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

I wonder how Bobby Crosby made this list

because I've never seen anything from him that suggests he belongs starting in the majors. I wonder why he was ranked at all. I'm not sure he would've been in my Top 500 prospects. Esepcially when Nick Swisher wasn't on the Top 50.

by thejd44 on Feb 15, 2008 4:24 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Revisionist history, much?

In 2003, Crosby had an 800 OPS and was a first-round pick who had made AA at age 22. As a shortstop. Seems like a fine pick to me.

He didn't start sucking ass until 2006.

by PaulThomas on Feb 15, 2008 6:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Crosby was never what I'd call good

outside of a one-month stretch in June 2005.

by thejd44 on Feb 16, 2008 2:18 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

#8 - Scott Hairston ...

Any chance/hope for Scott Hairston living up to this ranking?

Clearly no way he'll end his career with more WS's than #9 - Miguel Cabrera :-) ... but it seems like he might get a 2nd chance by being the Padres starting LF'er in 2008 ... and his stick with the Padres in 2007 sure seemed to come alive!

by LynchMob on Feb 16, 2008 10:50 PM EST reply actions 0 recs