Not a Rookie: Travis Buck

by John Sickels on Feb 13, 2008 11:12 AM EST in News Comment 14 comments

Travis Buck was a supplemental first round pick in 2005, out of Arizona State. He was excellent in his pro debut, making a quick adjustment to the Midwest League and hitting .341/.427/.472 in 32 games for Kane County. Scouts greatly respected his quick bat and polish at the plate, although questions about how much home run power he was going to show kept him out of the straight first round. I gave him a Grade B in the 2006 book, impressed by what I saw out of him in college and by his easy adjustment to pro competition. I (and a lot of other people) compared him to Andre Ethier, another former Arizona State outfielder who the Athletics had just traded to the Dodgers.

Buck began 2006 in Class A, hitting .349/.400/.603 in 34 games for Stockton in the California League. Promoted to Double-A, he hit .302/.376/.472 in 50 games. Injuries were an issue and he missed much of the season due to a hernia. But he hit great when healthy, again showing few adjustment problems against good pitching. As before, the main question was power development. How many homers would he hit? I wrote that "Buck has a good chance to be a .300 hitter at the major league level, but whether that's .300/.370/.500 or .300/.370/.430 remains to be seen." I gave him another Grade B.

Buck spent most of 2007 in the majors, hitting .288/.377/.474 in 82 games, dogged by hamstring and elbow injuries. His numbers were very much in line with expectation, and I think he will continue to hit like this as long as the injuries don't start wearing him down. Buck actually outperformed Ethier's 2006 rookie season...Ethier hit .308/.365/.477 for the Dodgers, but that worked out to an OPS+ of 113. Buck's .288/.377/.474 mark resulted in an OPS+ of 130.

The question that Oakland fans want the answer to: how much power? Will Buck start launching more homers in time? The whole "doubles become homers as a player gets older" thing is a nice rule of thumb, but it's much more of a tendency rather than an Iron Law of Prospecting. Buck's 2007 line, pro-rated out to 162 games, would result in 43 doubles, 10 triples, and 14 homers. Oakland fans have seen a lot more of him than I have, but from what I've seen I do think some of those doubles are going to become homers. I don't think he will be a 30-homer guy, but I suspect he will hit 20 or so in his peak seasons, while maintaining the .280-.300 average and the fine OBP.

Short-term projections for 2008 are all very similar:

Shandler: .285/.354/.485
James: .289/.376/.478
ZIPS: .283/.360/.458
Me: .290/.378/.474

Longer-term, I see Buck as being very similar to players such as Mike Greenwell, Rusty Greer, Raul Ibanez (with an earlier start to his good seasons), or Paul O'Neill. That's my take.

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As an A's fan I'm probably biased

but I really, really like Buck. I think 20 HR power is a reasonable upside. If he still puts up the 45-50 doubles, and 10 triples, that's about 80 XBH a year. Maybe it's not home run power, but for a #1 or #2 hitter it ain't too shabby. And those numbers really aren't too different from Grady Sizemore, who everybody is considering a big-time star (not that I'm necessarily comparing them in every way, but similar offensive production at a similar age).

The idea that he's the next Rusty Greer scares me just because of how Greer's injuries ruined a very promising career. Buck is already performing at the level of the 4 guys mentioned. I would hope he's going to improve as he approaches his prime.

by thejd44 on Feb 13, 2008 11:25 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Buck

I've used JD Drew as a comparison for Buck based on his early returns, and I think it is apt. A career peak in the .310/.410/.510 range for a few seasons is probably not unrealistic, and those approximate Drew's best years. Hopefully, the injury aspect of Drew's career won't also be something Buck wants to follow, but in all other ways, they appear very similar to me. Drew had more raw tools, and was a better defensive player (CF vs. RF skill set), but offensively, Buck has a shot to be JD Drew-with better health. He could end up being Oakland's best hitter for the next 5 seasons.
JAS

by jasvlm on Feb 13, 2008 11:32 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

The "Not a Rookie" segments

are FANTASTIC. Keep up the good work and keep 'em coming.

by Sox Puppet on Feb 13, 2008 11:41 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

i agree

by zimm on Feb 13, 2008 12:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

i like buck...

better than both barton/swisher. not as much power as swisher, but better athleticism, wont K as much, etc. the greer/o'neill comparisons seems fair. at least going into 08, he'll be the leadoff hitter most likely. there was a chance he wouldve tried out a CF experiment before A's acquired Gonzalez/Sweeney etc. th interesting part, buck in that draft wasnt even their original choice. they would've considered devine at that spot. they offered smoak a deal if he accepted they wanted him in that supp. rd

by rayver723 on Feb 13, 2008 11:45 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Buck...

Has a long shot at developing 30 HR power. I think it is definately possible but i'm not sure if it will happen. The ball jumps off his bat and he has incredible power to the opposite field. Not that he needs to, but i think he could definately bat #3 in a lineup for a long time. I like Buck more in left and for some reason the A's are set to give him the right field job. Carlos Gonzalez is more of a natural right fielder than he is and has more arm strength so it would make sense to leave Buck in left imo. Anyways, im excited to see what Travis can do this year if he can stay injury free.

by deadboy on Feb 13, 2008 12:16 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

The Power Stroke

It's not there yet. He's more of a linedrive hitter at this point.

But I'll point out... 5 of 7 HR's were of the opposite field variety. If Buck learns to pull the ball, he'll be a 25-30 HR guy. If not, he'll be a 15-20 HR guy.

by Colorado Fan on Feb 13, 2008 1:01 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

It's impossible to predict

but everybody should remember that, assuming Buck stays on the A's, he won't be playing at McAfee for much longer. If the new park is more of a hitters park, that could definitely boost his power numbers.

by thejd44 on Feb 13, 2008 1:26 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Maybe this is undue pessimism

but I see way too much of the bad side of Milton Bradley in him. In two seasons, he's basically missed half the games owing to one ailment or another-- and they're chronic-type injuries, not broken bones or other random happenstances.

My expectation is that he'll have a Bradley-like career (albeit without the temper tantrums) and be very good for 100 games a season and very frustrating for the other 60.

by PaulThomas on Feb 13, 2008 7:26 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

everything

sounded good until that one PT ;)

i have nightmares about what you just said, you're defintiely not the only one worried about that

by flipgatey3 on Feb 14, 2008 2:57 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

i like Buck alot, too

and tend to favor the more optimistic projections. just seems that, beyond a good stat profile, everytime i saw him he squared up the ball on his bat consistently: at the end of the day, that's the key. beyond that he has a great eye and, of course, the question is how much his power will develop. with his ability to make good contact, hit the ball hard, the power is going to blossom.

i'd call him a 25 homer guy within 3 years (helped by a change in ballparks)

by scooter on Feb 14, 2008 9:51 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

buck

his production was certainly good in 2007, but i'm worried about the big jump in his K rate. in the minors he was a pure hitter who basically smoked line drives all over the park. in the big leagues he struck out in 20% of his PA. now admittedly his walk rate was very good and his power actually increased a little, but i still wonder a little bit whether his swing is being exploited.

by jpahk on Feb 14, 2008 1:39 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

k rate

Hopefully it's just because of the harder league(smarter pitchers). I think he will be able to get it down with some more at-bats.

by ebradley on Feb 15, 2008 1:00 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

if i remember correctly

he had a lot of looking strikeouts last year. i wouldn't worry about it too much. 1, he'll understand the MLB strike zone better as he gets older, and 2, he won't get squeezed on the strike zone as much as he gets older, something that i think happened quite a bit last season.

by guy incognito on Feb 15, 2008 10:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs