Baseball Mastermind Top-25 Prospects
I've been a fan of this site for a while and now, I write for http://baseballmastermind.com. I published my top-25 prospects list and wanted to see some people throw some chairs, or at the least, argue their thoughts:
"I wanted to wait for Baseball America to come up with their annual top 100 before I published my list, but maybe getting my list out beforehand will be nice to see how they compare. In compiling this list, I've gone through my own notes on each of these players, consulted ESPN's Keith Law's Top-100 list, Kevin Goldstein's Top-100 list, Baseball America's organizational rankings as well as John Sickel's. I've also consulted scouting reports by the Baseball America staff, as well as Baseball Prospectus' Kevin Goldstein from his Future Shock column, I've consulted the statistics in depth and at this point, I am very happy with my list, which I feel is short enough where I can comfortably and accurately project the players. I thought about going for a top-50 list, but at some point the rankings would be more arbitrary than I'm comfortable with.
In evaluating these players, the rankings are based on a personal system (I'd say more qualitative than quantitative) where I consider a players overall talent and ceiling and measure that against their polish and the liklihood they'll reach their ceilings. I give credit for projectability, but I'm not going to go on any projection reaches by saying Fernando Martinez is a future 30+ home run guy because nothing about his performance indicates that yet. A player must have some power, or hitting that may translate to power, for them to be considered a power source. Finally, I consider defensive value fairly highly as well.
1. Jay Bruce, 21, CF-L, CIN - I've covered Bruce in detail on this site throughout the off-season. Most major top-100 Prospects lists rank Bruce ahead of Longoria with the exception of Keith Law's list. I feel this is primarily based on Bruce's power ceiling, which is considered to better than Longoria's as Bruce has the capability to hit for average and power and has the greatest likelihood of growing into a 40 home run per season guy. Defensively, Bruce rates as average to above average in centerfield, but I doubt his range will be great and he is better suited to a be right fielder with his strong arm. Bruce gets high, high marks on character and makeup, so all of the finer points of his game that need work are going to be addressed. In the end, Bruce will need to work on his approach at the plate to reach his power ceiling and in order to decidedly beat out Longoria.
2. Evan Longoria, 22, 3B-R, TB - I'm convinced Longoria will make the most seamless transition to the majors of any of these players in 2008. His hitting is very refined for his age and while the power may not be elite yet, Longoria certainly has the ability to hit 30+ home runs annually after a season or two in the bigs. I really like his athleticism and glove work at third and I feel he will be a plus defender, stepping in and winding up somewhere between Ryan Zimmerman and David Wright.
3. Joba Chamberlain, 22, RHP, NYA - Chamberlain had an impressive pro debut vaulting his way from advanced A ball all the way to the bigs, where he was never anything short of dominant. In 88.1 minor leagues innings, Chamberlain compiled 135 strikeouts and 27 walks, posting a 2.45 ERA. Once in AAA, Chamberlain was moved to the bullpen both because the Yankees needed help there and to limit his innings. In eight AAA innings, Chamberlain struck out 18 and walked 1, then pitched 24 innings in the majors, striking out 34 and walking 6 to post a .38 ERA. While in the bullpen, Chamberlain primarily stuck with his fastball, which sits in the mid to upper 90's and can hit triple digits and his plus-plus slider that has tight, two-plane break and comes in the high 80's. Chamberlain also throws a curveball and a changeup which will become a bigger part of his repertoire as he steps into the New York Yankee rotation. His pin-point command of those first two pitches is what makes him so great.
You need to a flashplayer enabled browser to view this YouTube video
4. Clay Buchholz, 23, RHP, BOS - Buchholz followed up his stellar 2006 season with an even better 2007 in which he pitched 125.1 innings between AA and AAA, striking out 171 batters and walking 35, posting a 2.44 ERA. Buchholz was then promoted to the bigs and threw a no-hitter in his second major league start. Buchholz throws a four-seam fastball that sits 92-94 and maxes out 97 and a two-seam fastball that has some sink. He combines that with a 12-6 plus-plus curveball and a decent changeup. He also features a slider, which is probably his worse pitch. Buchholz is noted for having exceptional command of all of his pitches as well as a strong mound presence and will be competing against Chamberlain for pitching superiority for years to come.
5. Clayton Kershaw, 20, LHP, LAD - Top LHP prospect in the game. Kershaw's fastball sits 94-96 and tops out at 98. His curveball is considered a plus-plus pitch and reminds me of Erik Bedard's with a toppling, two-plan break. His control is advanced for his age, but still not where it needs to be. Unless there are a whole slew of unforeseen injuries in the Los Angeles Dodgers rotation, Kershaw will not pitch in the majors until September, if at all. None the less, all scouts seem to be in agreement that he has as much talent and as high a ceiling as any pitching prospect in the game.
6. Cameron Maybin, 21, CR-R, FL - Maybin was the centerpiece in the deal that sent Miguel Cabrera to Detroit. He has true, superstar potential as a power-speed centerfielder with great range and arm strength. In 2007, Maybin hit .316/.409/.523 with 14 home runs and 25 stolen bases in 323 at-bats but missed time due to a shoulder injury. Maybin has quick wrists and excellent plate coverage and as far as athleticism goes, is as high as anyone on this list. He will make a legitimate run at the National League Rookie of the Year award in 2008, depending on if he starts the year at the big league level and if he can make adjustments to major league pitching.
You need to a flashplayer enabled browser to view this YouTube video
7. Colby Rasmus, 21, CF-L, STL - Rasmus demonstrated in 2007 that he may be the most likely 30-30 rookie in the minor leagues hitting .275 with 29 home runs and 18 stolen bases in AA. His hitting isn't as refined as Bruce or Longoria's, but those skills will develop fairly quickly as Rasmus' K/BB ratio weren't too bad in 2007 (70/108 in 472 ABs). Rasmus should develop into a player somewhere along the lines of a Grady Sizemore depending on how he can cut down on the strikeouts but at this point, his power potential may be even better.
8. Homer Bailey, 22, RHP, CIN - Bailey had a rough 2007, pitching 45.1 innings in the majors with 28 strikeouts, 28 walks and a 5.76 ERA before running into arm trouble. He still features a fastball and curveball that both rate as plus-plus out pitches. Bailey's fastball sits 93-96 and maxes out at 98 with a lot of movement. Overall control and changeup still need work, but he will need to make those adjustments at the big league level as Bailey will likely begin 2008 in the Cincinnati Reds rotation.
You need to a flashplayer enabled browser to view this YouTube video
9. David Price, 22, LHP, TB - I'll wait for Price to pitch professionally before ranking him ahead of Bailey, but the 6'6" LHP has the potential to rocket through Tampa's minor league system and among the ranks of his fellow prospects very quickly. After more scouts see him pitch, it will be interesting to see how the former first overall pick matches up with Kershaw as the top LHP prospect. His fastball sits 92-94 and maxes out at 96. Plus slider and slurve--a slower version of his slider--and improving changeup form a great combo. He won't pitch in the majors until September, but he looks to impress in his pro debut.
You need to a flashplayer enabled browser to view this YouTube video
10. Travis Snider, 20, OF-L, TOR - In this list, there are only two players I can project hitting 40 home runs at some point in their careers, Bruce and Snider. Snider is among the best hitter in the minor leagues with pitch recognition and power that are advanced for his age. He has a strong enough arm to play in right but he is unathletic and will be a force for the Blue Jays as long as his hitting.
You need to a flashplayer enabled browser to view this YouTube video
11. Franklin Morales, 22, LHP, COL - Franklin Morales reminds me a lot of Johan Santana. Both are power LHP who hail from Venezuela, with devastating breaking balls and changeups. They both are fierce competitors on the mound. Morales throws a curveball, rather than a slider, and while Morales' changeup is a decent offering, it's not the out-pitch that Santana's is. The polish isn't there for Morales, and that shows up in his numbers, but his stuff is off the charts and he gets high marks on character and makeup and the skills will develop. He will have to adjust on the fly as he is set to begin the season in Colorado' rotation.
12. Rick Porcello, 19, RHP, DET - Many scouts called Porcello the best high school pitcher to be drafted since Josh Beckett, high praise for the Boras client. His fastball sits 92-96 maxes out at 98 and has room for improvement. He throws a curveball, slider and changeup that all have the capability to develop into plus pitches.
13. Matt Wieters, 22, C-B, BAL - Top catching prospect in baseball by a lot. Switch-hitter with plus hitting and power to all fields. As we've seen with players like Jorge Posada and Victor Martinez, as long as a catcher can handle the work behind the dish, with hard work, they can stick and make it as below average to average catchers, with hitting that makes up for any defensive shortcomings.
14. Andy LaRoche, 24, 3B-R, LAD - LaRoche hit .309/.399/.589 with 18 home runs in 265 at-bats, although hitting in Las Vegas inflates his numbers because he was over-matched in the bigs, hitting .222/.365/.312 with one home run in 93 at-bats. Many scouts said he was being too selective at the plate during his big league stint. His contact-driven swing will translate to a high batting average with 25-30 home runs in his peak. He has shown great strike zone control all through the minors and will always be a source of on-base percentage. LaRoche plays only average defense and lacks the quickness to excel as a third baseman but he'll be average for the most part.
15. Mike Moustakas, 19, SS-L, KC - Moustakas is the best middle infield prospect in the game. Selected 2nd overall by Kansas City in 2007 out of Chatsworth high school, he has plus-plus power and hitting due to a quick compact swing with an advanced approach. Many scouts see a move over to second base as a part of Moustakas's future but he may well develop into a player in the mold of Chase Utley if everything goes well.
16. Jordan Schafer, 21, CF-L, ATL - The five-tool centerfielder had a breakout season in 2007, hitting .312/.374/.512 with 15 homeruns and 23 homeruns in 565 at-bats. Schafer has a great deal of athleticism and has excellent range and instincts in the outfield with a strong arm. He should develop into a 20-20-type player with excellent defense in centerfield, with his power developing as his pitch recognition and overall strength improves.
You need to a flashplayer enabled browser to view this YouTube video
17. Jacoby Ellsbury, 24, CF-B, BOS - I'm not going to argue with what Ellsbury has going for him: game-changing speed, plus defense in centerfield and solid contact hitting, but to me, as a prototypical leadoff-type player, his ceiling is pretty low. Last season, between AA and AAA, Ellsbury hit .323/.387/.424 with 2 home runs and 41 stolen bases in 436 at-bats. Ellsbury will never be more than a 10-15 home run hitter even if his power develops fully and while his defense at a middle of the diamond position is valuable, I doubt he will ever become a super-star.
18. Reid Brignac, 22, SS-L, TB - Brignac had what would seem like a down-year compared to 2006, but still managed to hit.260/.328/.433 with 17 home runs in 527 AA at-bats. One plus on the season was Brignac managed to improve him defense to the point where talks of moving him to third are mostly gone. Brignac is still one of the top power-hitting middle infield prospects in the game today.
19. Wade Davis, 22, RHP, TB - Davis may not get as much credit as David Price and Evan Longoria, but he is every bit the power prospect and would earn more attention in another system. He has a fastball that sits 94-96 and maxes out at 98 with a plus power curve and below average changeup. He could use some work on his overall command but his fastball and curveball have a lot of potential.
20. Andrew McCutchen, 21, CF-R, PIT - The Pirates rushed McCutchen in his age 20 season, all the way up to AAA, but he struggled for most of the season and only managed to hit .257/.327/.383 with 10 home runs in 446 AA at-bats. He still has a lot of potential as an athletic, power-speed player and has drawn comparison to Marquis Grissom.
You need to a flashplayer enabled browser to view this YouTube video
21. Fernando Martinez, 19, CF-L, NYN - Martinez held his own in AA as an 18 year-old hitting .271/.336/.377 with 4 home runs in 236 at-bats. This is a remarkable feat for an 18 year old, but it doesn't tell us much about Martinez, other than that he can hit. A lot of his value stems from his projectability, young age and his athleticism. He will likely be moved from centerfield and that reduces a lot of his value because we have so little idea how his power will develop. I am fairly convinced Martinez will be an excellent hitter and athlete but the development of his power will play the biggest role in the impact he makes in his career.
You need to a flashplayer enabled browser to view this YouTube video
22. Desmond Jennings, 21, CF-R, TB - Jennings had a breakout season in 2007, hitting .316/.401/.465 with 9 home runs and 45 stolen bases in 387 at-bats in A ball. The toolsy outfielder has the potential to be a 10-20 home run hitter, with great speed and range in the outfield. He may wind up somewhere around Carl Crawford if his skills continue to improve.
23. Ian Kennedy, 23, RHP, NYA - Kennedy followed Chamberlain all the way up through the New York Yankees minor league system, starting at advanced A ball all the way to the bigs. Kennedy features a fastball that sits 88-91 that he locates very well. His curveball is average and his changeup, which features late drop is his best pitch, which will serve as an out-pitch for the righty. I like Kennedy's command and poise, but I'm not convinced he will ever be more than a #3 starter due to his low velocity. The Brad Radke comparison is fair, but also represents a best-case scenario.
You need to a flashplayer enabled browser to view this YouTube video
24. Daric Barton, 22, 1B-L, OAK - Barton was sent to Oakland as the centerpiece in the Mark Mulder trade in 2004. At the time, Oakland Athletics General Manager Billy Beane said Barton's A ball numbers were "Pujols-like." Barton's pure hitting ability and plate discipline have been considered plus-plus since he was still a teenager and last season, he hit .293/.389/.438 with 9 home runs in 516 AAA at-bats. Barton will likely start the season as the A's first baseman or DH and will develop into a high contact, high walk player very quickly. At the very worst, he'll wind up a Lyle Overbay-type player, but I think a left-handed Edgar Martinez may be a closer comp.
You need to a flashplayer enabled browser to view this YouTube video
25. Carlos Gonzalez, 23, OF-L, OAK - Gonzalez was sent to Oakland in the Dan Haren trade. He has amazing tools, with his power and arm strength as his two most notable assets. He isn't fast, but he may be able to remain in centerfield for the time being. Last season, Gonzalez hit .288/.336/.478 with 18 home runs between AA and AAA, but many observers questioned his effort level. He may not start the year in Oakland, but will play a significant portion of the time at the big league level. It will be interesting to see how Oakland's oranizational emphasis on patience will affect Gonzalez, who will benefit from an improvement in his approach to combine with his plus power hitting.
0 recs |
41 comments
Comments
I like it
Some of these top prospects won't ever pan out because of injuries, stagnation in development, or being mishandled. So all you can do is make your list and stand by it. Keep it up.
by JFP on Feb 12, 2008 9:32 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
common, but I can't see it
Yes, I realize tools and blah blah blah. After the '05 draft, sure. Maybin was picked first, so he's better. Maybe even after the '06 season. Maybin still has great athleticism, and his speed and good fortune hid some poor peripherals, but after '07? How? Rasmus was an absolute beast across the board. Maybin, once again was heavy on the groundballs and strikeouts.
It's been two years. At what point in a minor league career does actual production outweigh mystical "upside"?
by Galt on Feb 12, 2008 9:39 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
While I agree...
by jc3 on Feb 12, 2008 9:42 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I am one of the largest anti-maybin posters
I don't want to by that guy, but i'm going to be...
The reason people have Maybin higher than Rasmus is because tools are associated with color.
Bash me if you want, I don't care. Its true. Toosly players are sometimes Latino and often African American. Very few times you'll hear a white player spoke about at toolsy. If he produce a la Bruce and Rasmus they are stars, studs, top prospects but are still never called toosly.
Upton(2X), Milledge, Jennings, McCutchen, Maybin, Dukes, Young, Heyward, Chris Young, Adam Jones...
I'm sure I can think of more people. If i wanted. Its not that white players aren't considered to have good tools because they are. I'd say the most toosly white player today is Jordan Schafer(after Rasmus) but you never really hear him referred to as such.
I think young African American players are given a lot more chances in baseball today due to their to tools even though sometimes they do not produce.
Just my opinion.
by Metty5 on Feb 12, 2008 9:50 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Wait a cotton-pickin' second there!!!!
Sorry, I don't watch much video, unless the name has obvious "color identification in it" I have no idea what color these players are. I still think Sizemore is black.
by Boxkutter on Feb 12, 2008 9:56 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Well Corey is white
by Metty5 on Feb 12, 2008 10:00 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
+1
by SmokeyJoeWood on Feb 12, 2008 10:21 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Sizemore
by goose102977 on Feb 12, 2008 10:29 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
wow, "cotton-pickin'"
by Galt on Feb 12, 2008 10:57 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Congrats!
by Boxkutter on Feb 12, 2008 11:21 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Josh Hamilton has always been labeled as 'toolsy'
by Rangers Farmhand on Feb 12, 2008 11:57 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Toolsy?
by Boxkutter on Feb 12, 2008 12:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
so
gays
9/11 victims
drug addicts
the handicapped
all in the last 24 hours. Anyone else's enemy list you are targeting? How about fat people, smokers, and Down's patients?
By the way, does anyone know when the Baseball America top 100 list will be out? I know last year it was out one of the last days in March, but their prospect book has already shipped, how long do they possibly need to compile their top 100 list since the top 50 lists were all included in the book.
by Galt on Feb 12, 2008 12:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Hey!
I make fun of fat people and down's patients all the time, but rarely in public. People are too PC about that kind of stuff. I think you need to laugh at the fact we are different, instead of keeping a stick up your ass about it. That just leads to more separation. Celebrate our differences instead of trying to act like you don't see them.
But, I would be interested to know how saying I didn't know a player was black constitutes me targeting them.
I also make fun of smokers quite a bit, but then again I am a smoker, so I am allowed. And I'll have you know, I have gay friends... and have sent black people to prison, so that proves I'm not racist! (LMAO... now THAT was funny! I have also sent whites and mexicans too, don't get your panties in a bunch.)
by Boxkutter on Feb 12, 2008 12:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
"boxkutter"
by Galt on Feb 12, 2008 12:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
When you make assumptions...
I was asked about my name a couple months back by Wily Mo, it is not a reference to 9/11. It's a Wu-Tang reference. From the song "Careful (Click, Click)" on their 2000 album "The W". So neither my reference, nor theirs had anything to do with 9/11.
by Boxkutter on Feb 12, 2008 12:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
What about Christopher Reeve?
by demondeaconbaseball on Feb 12, 2008 3:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Well...
by Boxkutter on Feb 12, 2008 6:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
It was pretty brilliant
by Galt on Feb 12, 2008 7:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Chicken and egg question?
Honestly, I think baseball talent evaluators are fairly color-blind. Toolsy prospects are given a lot more chances, period. And they are rated much higher than their performance warrants by scouts at all levels. This makes some sense, since a lack of "tools" can often put a limit on upside. As a Cubs fan in recent years, all of Ryan Harvey, Brian Dopirak, and Brandon Sing (I haven't seen him, but assume he's not African American or latino) were highly regarded for their power (a tool). They got plenty of chances.
Now, maybe you're talking about non-power "tools", but that's where the chicken/egg question comes into play, IMO. If I'm not mistaken, African Americans do resoundingly well in most track-and-field competitions, which are designed to measure athletic ability. So, it would just seem reasonable to assume that a disproportionately high number of "toolsy" players would be African American. Yet, I hardly think it's limited to one (or 2) racial profiles... Drew Stubbs seems like an example of a white "tools" player to me... I think if he'd had "moderate" tools, he wouldn't have been considered nearly so early in the draft, and I think he'll get plenty of chances, even if he doesn't hit.
For all the woes that intensely competitive environments can bring about, one good side is that a focus on winning can help tear down racial stereotypes. If it's all about winning, skin color just doesn't matter. Toolsy players are given more chances for the same reasons we here rank them highly on prospect lists and the same reasons they are drafted highly. IF they convert those tools into skills, they can be stars.
by BobbyMac on Feb 12, 2008 12:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
+1
That's as much as I will say though because I have already been accused of being racist in this thread once.
by Boxkutter on Feb 12, 2008 12:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Clay Buchholz?
by stillredsoxfan on Feb 12, 2008 9:53 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Buchholz's changeup
by Baseball Mastermind on Feb 12, 2008 6:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
minor point....
He could, but most likely he'll start the season in AAA. The only reason he pitched in the bigs last year is due to several injuries in the rotation.
by DenverBears on Feb 12, 2008 10:01 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Actually
by Dfarth on Feb 12, 2008 10:36 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
In the Col pen?
by Jihan1 on Feb 12, 2008 12:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I find McGee to be an interesting prospect...
I understand different methodologies, but just looking at this list, I'd be surprised to find someone who would want Kennedy in their minor league system over McGee.
I think the quality of his secondary stuff has been blow out of proportion, and I think people want to downgrade him because of it.
Anyway, I find the difference of opinion in his rankings interesting.
by beastball on Feb 12, 2008 10:48 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
McGee
by Baseball Mastermind on Feb 12, 2008 6:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think that's what's interesting...
I think the speculation of going to the pen is more due to how good his fastball is moreso than problems with his secondary pitches. Like its different than when you hear people talk about Liz.
John, McKamey, and BA, both in the top 20s and top 10s, put McGee ahead of guys like Davis, Jennings, Cuerto, Kennedy, and others.
But, it's just the wildly differences in opinions that are interesting to me. It seems to all be related to opinions of his secondary stuff. But I haven't heard anything from the DRays to indicate that they consider him as anything other than a starter.
by beastball on Feb 12, 2008 10:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
As a Rays fan
by Brickhaus on Feb 12, 2008 12:06 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
how is ian kennedy top 25?
by rayver723 on Feb 12, 2008 1:54 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Kennedy
by Baseball Mastermind on Feb 12, 2008 6:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
this list is better than Law's and goldstein's
by daveh33 on Feb 12, 2008 5:53 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Brandon Wood
Is he a guy who'll need to season in AAA until he's like 25, or is he just about as ready as he's going to be?
Are we talking Joe Crede or Troy Glaus (minus size)?
by Baseball Mastermind on Feb 12, 2008 6:39 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
No Tabata
by FrazierFan on Feb 13, 2008 4:38 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

by 











