Over Under on Livan Hernandez in a Twins uniform.

by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Feb 12, 2008 6:00 PM EST Comment 37 comments

Now that the Twins have signed Livan Hernandez, a veteran innings eater who is sure to have around a 5 ERA or higher this season.

The question is this over/under on Livan Hernandez pitching with the Twins past the Trade Deadling on July 21st? I say Under; I think he may be out before then, around the All-star break. He will be flat out realesed...and not even traded for anything of value, but thats just me. Thoughts?

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Livan

I think he'll probably be traded, but unless his performance completely falls off the cliff, he won't just get released - remember, even Ramon Ortiz got a prospect in return last year. Plus, as of last year, Livan was right in the middle of a Type B free agent designation. If he maintains that designation, he could return a sandwich round draft pick.

by Diggity Dino on Feb 12, 2008 6:06 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

What an awful deal.

Not that it's a crippling move, mind you, but I thought the Twins organization was smarter than that, even with Terry Ryan stepping down from the helm. The Diamondbacks were lucky that Hernadez's ERA wasn't anywhere near what he deserved, which kept his B-type free agent rank. Now his luck will likely thin out, he's in the AL, and he's still in a hitter's park. And the Twinkies lose a sandwich pick.

Blech.

by elrey34 on Feb 12, 2008 6:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

wait...

Did the Dback's offer arbitration?

The squirrels have become organized...and they're angry!

by maxisagod on Feb 12, 2008 6:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I was told so,

however now that you mention it, I've never read anything that says he was or wasn't -- although I've never tried looking for that information either.

by elrey34 on Feb 12, 2008 6:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

They get comp.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/ask-ba/2008/265567.html

Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.

by doublestix on Feb 12, 2008 6:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Good for Arizona.

by elrey34 on Feb 12, 2008 7:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Not a horrible move

If you look at the Twins you see anywhere from 7-9 guys who could be major league ready. Of that group only Boof Bonser has played a full Major league season. Him and Scott Baker have 48 starts each as major leaguers

Slowey looked great on his second callup but so did Boof in his 06 callup.

Liriano is coming off TJ surgery.

Humber has 1 NL ML start.

Blackburn, Perkins, ETC have no major league starts.

As a Twinkie fan I wasn't excited by this signing but I see that it was probably needed to protect not only the bullpen but also to possibly save some service time for guys who could probably either use a little seasoning at AAA or may become bullpen guys because their arms can't handle the strain of pitching at ML.

This is much different than the ortiz/Ponson signings. I don't love it but given what's available it probably needed to be done. All this said I think the Twins will find 5 solid young starters by the trade deadline and I say they trade Hernandez to a contender in need of a 5th starter because of injury and get a mid level prospect for him.

by halfchest on Feb 12, 2008 7:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yes, it is horrible.

The Twins, of all teams, should know that getting a pitcher who will give you 3.8 K/G, 3.4 BB/G, and a 35.5 GB% takes an incredibly small amount of resources to acquire. It doesn't take $5 million, and it doesn't take a sandwich pick. All it takes is no more than a million and/or a PTBNL.

by elrey34 on Feb 12, 2008 7:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Sandwich Pick

The Twins don't lose a sandwich pick (since those aren't available to lose). The only draft difference for them is that there is now 1 additional pick between the 1st and 2nd rounds. But no penalty for the Twins exists anymore.

by Diggity Dino on Feb 12, 2008 9:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

+1

A team can gain a sandwich pick for losing a Type B free agent to whom they had offered arbitration. But the signing team doesn't forfeit anything. Only Type A free agents cause the signing team to lose a draft pick.

It is good for the D-Backs, though, to get the sandwich pick for a guy they no longer need. I believe they offered arbitration and Livan rejected it before they acquired Haren.

As to the park effects question, he should benefit from going from Chase Field to the Metrodome. The Dome favors fly-ball pitchers (Radke, Santana) and sinkerballers tend to struggle in there (Silva).

cmathewson

by cmathewson on Feb 12, 2008 9:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Well that sucks.

Because now I'm wrong haha

by elrey34 on Feb 12, 2008 10:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Huh?

The Metrodome isn't really a hitter's park.

by AucklandGM on Feb 12, 2008 7:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The homerdome?

by elrey34 on Feb 12, 2008 7:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Wow, if that's what the name was years ago...

then it must be true. Sheesh. Park factors FTW?

According to ESPN park factors The dome hasn't had a HR factor above 1 since 2003, and has been a near neutral park 5 of the last 7 years.

by AucklandGM on Feb 12, 2008 7:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

ESPN's park factors are a joke.

BP's too. Find better ones.

by elrey34 on Feb 12, 2008 7:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Huh

Like Baseball Think Factory?

2003-2005 weighted park factor of 1.06, HR factor of 0.98

I guess any that disagree with you must be a joke, because all the ones I can find seem to say the same thing. You can call mine bogus all you like, but it doesn't change the fact that you haven't quoted from any, unless a 20 year old nickname counts as a reputable source.

by AucklandGM on Feb 12, 2008 7:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Excuse me.

I knew I was only going by reputation, and I knew that the numbers may or may not have backed me up at the time I posted. I was just going by the whim that neither the stadium nor the atmosphere had changed since those years. I was just trying to make a point that ESPN's signature stats are terrible and BP's are overrated in having you look for something legitimate (you still didn't pick the best one, but that's neither here nor there).

However, all of the park factor systems are flawed in that their data comes from the influence of the home team, in which all of them are not league average in all of hitting and pitching. Most aren't even nearly close. All of the stats have to be translated and that breeds a lot of room for error, a lot like defensive metrics. Add grains of salt to taste.

by elrey34 on Feb 12, 2008 8:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Metrodome is not a homer dome

The dimensions should favor homers. But the air is so dry in there, fly balls just don't carry the way you would expect. Most homers in the Dome are of the line-drive variety.

If you've ever watched a game in there, you would know. I think they sell more soda than any other park because if you're not hydrated, your throat feels like you've just taken a motorcycle trip through the desert after the game.

It should come as no shock that the Twins went 20 years between 30-homer seasons. If it weren't for the turf, it would be a pitchers' park.

cmathewson

by cmathewson on Feb 12, 2008 8:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks for the insight.

I've never seen a game there and it's interesting that they sell more drinks than any other stadium. I would venture to guess that the dry air would be better for flyballs because it would be the opposite of humid air's effect on creating more friction with the ball through the air, like in Seattle.

by elrey34 on Feb 12, 2008 8:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Physics

Seattle is a pitcher's park for reasons beyond climate.

Three things cause balls to fly better: Heat, humidity and altitude. Parks like Miami are HR parks because of the heat and humidity. Balls actually fly better in humid air, all things considered. The moisture reduces air friction. And warm air is lighter than cool air, so that reduces air friction as well.

The next time you take a summer road trip in the rain, notice you'll get better gas millage.

Balls also travel better in lighter air at high altitudes. So even though the air is dry in parks all over the PCL, the altitude (and the heat) makes them homer friendly parks. Thats one reason why Chase Field is a homer-friendly park

The Metrodome is 1000 feet above sea level and artificially cool and dry from air conditioning. It's quite possibly the toughest air to cut through, outside of a wind blowing in in April at Comerica.

cmathewson

by cmathewson on Feb 12, 2008 9:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

And the winds blow in...

And don't forget Whitey's theory that the Twins turn on the outfield fans whenever the visiting team is at the plate!!! :)
(ah....Whitey....)

by purppride1 on Feb 15, 2008 4:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Are you Kevin Slowey's father?

by Dfarth on Feb 12, 2008 6:07 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Over & under

Over-Livan pushing the scale over 275.

Under- The Twins not trying to get something for him by the deadline.

by SoCal on Feb 12, 2008 6:12 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Over

by Yakker on Feb 12, 2008 6:25 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Livan

To me this is a horrible move-----this guy has been almost like batting practice the past two years-----in the NL!!!! He gives up a million hits and he will be absolutely pummelled in the AL.
His biggest asset is supposedly being an innings eater, with a rubber arm----but what good is that if you give up 5+ runs per game-----which he almost certainly will-----insanity IMO!!

by bobbym on Feb 12, 2008 6:48 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

interesting. . .

Livan Hernandez put up 19 quality starts last year. So it seems that he has some horrible games and then makes up for it with some really good ones. I'll take that for five million in a year when Meche and Silva are making 11 and 12 million.

by halfchest on Feb 12, 2008 7:08 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

And was incredibly lucky to do it...

Just think how much Meche would get on the FA market NOW. It would start at 5/65. Start there.

Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.

by doublestix on Feb 12, 2008 7:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Except. . .

He's consistently put up at least 19 QS the past 6 years. I think it just shows that he will pitch some good games every year but he'll have some huge stinkers in there that make his numbers look horrible. I'm not saying the guy is great but to rank in the top 30 for quality starts for 6 years lets you know the guy can go out there and give you a decent start. I'm actually a heck of a lot happier with this than I was this morning.

by halfchest on Feb 12, 2008 7:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Bad metric to project with.

And I wouldn't take that for pennies on the dollar.

by elrey34 on Feb 12, 2008 7:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

really?

I'm not projecting a whole lot other than he's likely to give us a fair amount of good starts mixed in with what will probably be horrible ones. A quality start is 6 innings and not giving up more than 3 runs. He's done that at least 19 times a year for 6 years. Seems worth it considering the current market for starting pitchers and with what's still available.

by halfchest on Feb 12, 2008 8:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Keep in mind

that Hernandez has declined very steadily over the past 6 years, so using data from that long ago isn't too useful for projecting.

My problem with the QS stat is that it draws data widely credited to a pitcher when the credit should be shared with the other defenders. Just like ERA (ER is a large component of QS). There's just a lot of noise in it. It's a fun tool to toy around with, but it shouldn't have anything to do with analysis.

As I said above, you can use far less resources to get pitching that offers you what Hernandez offers. In paying Hernandez, you're paying for his performance and his name. I would choose not to pay for a name when I can avoid it.

by elrey34 on Feb 12, 2008 8:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

QS

How many quality starts did Silva have? I'm sure it's more, but, Silva also makes $48M, while Livan makes $5M...in this market, I think it's a good deal. People laughed at AJ Burnett's 5/$55M contract, that would be double right now.

by killa on Feb 12, 2008 9:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Josh Towers' periphs are 85% of Silva's.

He's making $400k this year. This is a classic example of what I was talking about above.

by elrey34 on Feb 12, 2008 10:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

A couple of things

that make this deal tolerable:

It is for only 1 year
As we have all seen, any organization can nab extra talent by going over slot in the later rounds (think Lars Anderson in the 18th off the top of my head), and with Johan no longer in the fold, the Twins should be able to afford to go over slot on some of their draft picks in the next draft to restock with a draft that has some scouts drooling because of the impact bats available at both the H.S level and college level.

This is neither a defense or conviction of this move, just some points that may have been overlooked....

by thomasps3 on Feb 13, 2008 10:33 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Twins going over slot????

how closely do you follow this team?

I am just now reaching the age of Dusty Baker prospectdum. maybe i should give Krivsky a call

by Terry Ryan Jr on Feb 14, 2008 3:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

To say that the Twins

are my favorite team would be a lie. I was simply, in the context of the Livan Hernandez signing, trying to make a cogent point about options that may have not been available to the Twins working under the impression they were going to re-sign Johan Santana v. not having the $13mm he was due this year and how that may impact their ability to sign picks that would normally be outside of their normal draft protocol.

Don't you think that the Ben Revere selection was somewhat a by-product of a thought process that had the Twins re-signing Santana?

by thomasps3 on Feb 15, 2008 12:02 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs