Olsen and Bonderman

by DaleCoop14 on Feb 12, 2008 3:31 PM EST Comment 24 comments

Here are two guys with all the stuff to succeed but lacking results. In my mind, they are quite similar as well (possibly with the exception of attitude). Their progressions resemble one another, though Olsen's WHIP exploded last year amidst personal and legal troubles and Bonderman's K/BB has been better than Olsen's so far in the majors.

What are the outlooks for these two? What adjustments might they make that could help them harness their above average stuff? What are your predictions for either of them becoming a solid #2 or better? Or what are their ceilings at this point?

Poll

Will Olsen or Bonderman ever be a 3.50 ERA, 1.200 WHIP, 2.5 K/BB pitcher?

Bonderman

82 votes

Olsen

25 votes

Both

17 votes

Neither

35 votes

159 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs | Comment 24 comments

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Comments

Disagree with the premise

I don't really think these guys are all that similar (Bondy much more success at younger age).

I also think that Bonderman gets underrated for superficially bad numbers in 2007, though his xFIP numbers continue to be better than league average. He's also dealing with being on the wrong side of the expectations game.

by Yakker on Feb 12, 2008 4:00 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Bonderman

Well, in addition, he's still had only one "good" season regardless of what the sabremetric numbers show. I think that's why we keep believing in him. He just seems to be poised for a breakout that never seems to happen. He's still young and still has a chance to grow into an elite pitcher.... but, I don't know, something just isn't clicking.

by Lunkwill Fook on Feb 12, 2008 4:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Age and success

Olsen produced much better numbers his rookie year than Bondy. Now, Bondy was only 20 and Olsen was 22, but Bondy is now 5 years into his MLB career at 25, while Olsen just turned 24.

Bondy was improving steadily the last 3 years, but experienced a decent sized fall. It's hard to grab a read on Scotty... I can easily see him having a sub 4, 185 SO season, as I could see him have a 5+ year with 115 BB.

I would say Olsen has the stronger pitches while Bondy might be the stronger pitcher.

by bucklin12 on Feb 12, 2008 4:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Jeez

I'm in danger of turning into the guy who can't shut up about Bondy, but...if you evaluate Bonderman using traditional things like ERA and Ws, then you will think he's been pitching below expectations.

However, even in his supposedly "poor" year in 2007, his xFIP was actually above league average. Bonderman has been plagued by poor defense and just plain bad luck, IMO.

His elbow troubles concern me, but if healthy he will substantially outperform Olsen over the next 5 years.

by Yakker on Feb 12, 2008 6:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

It's only "luck"

if there's no explanation for it.

Bonderman's CAREER BABIP is .319. That's five full seasons worth of data. He is either the single unluckiest pitcher in baseball history, or people make unusually good contact off his pitches. With a career line drive rate of 20%, I'm putting my money on the latter.

Bonderman's xFIP needs to be adjusted upward to reflect a BABIP substantially above league-average (just as Zito's needs to be adjusted downward to account for his abilities in the opposite direction).

by PaulThomas on Feb 12, 2008 6:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

It could be the stupidity effect,

a la Felix Hernandez. Bonderman's peripherals have been very good in recent seasons up until last year, when they were still good. The reason the results haven't met up with the peripherals could be that, stuff aside, he's just not a good pitcher. He may just not know how and when to do what. It could be stupidity or maybe he's just stubborn like the King. I don't know enough about Bonderman to definitively say. Maybe a knowledgeable Tigers fan can shed some light here.

by elrey34 on Feb 12, 2008 7:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Bonderman

There's no need to replicate our discussion from the earlier diary, but some questions for you:

-- In 2004, Bonderman's DER was .722, which is better than the generally accepted league average of .700-.710. Why do you think that hitters did not make unusually good contact off Bonderman in 2004?

-- In his rookie season in 2003, Bonderman's DER was .672 and his LD% was 25%. Do you think that it is still appropriate to rely on Bonderman's "career averages" which give virtually the same weight to his age 20 rookie season as to his most recent season at age 24?

-- In 2007, Bonderman's DER was .681. Felix Hernandez's and Scott Kazmir's DERs were both .667. In fact, his first two seasons, Felix's DERs were .688 and .667 and Kaz has had DERs of .655, .694, .691, and .667. Do you think Felix and Kazmir are pitchers off whom hitters make unusually good contact?

-- In 2007, Bonderman's LD% was 17.6%, good for 15th in the league. Do you think in 2008 he will revert to his "career average" of 20% (based on his age 20-24 seasons), or do you allow for the possibility that, at the age of 24, he may still be getting better?

by Yakker on Feb 12, 2008 7:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Quick hits

He had his luckiest year (luck, here, including defense-- i.e. lucky from the pitcher's standpoint, not from the GM's) in 2004. I see 4 "normal" years and one outlier, and that's the outlier.
I'm relying on them to the exact extent that I'm relying on everything else. Including his 2004 season. Throw out those two putative outliers and his BABIP (or DER, if you will) actually gets worse.
Quite possibly. One thing I definitely believe is that those two play in front of atrociously bad defenses, which Bonderman (who played in front of a lineup with six plus defenders last season) cannot possibly claim.
I put more stock in career marks than single season marks. And short of developing a new pitch, I'm not sure to what extent pitchers control their LD%. I'd be happy to look at evidence suggesting that it's a controllable trait (as compared to, say, fastball speed-- which is more or less inherent) but I haven't seen any yet.

by PaulThomas on Feb 12, 2008 8:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

bonderman

I have never seen someone more overhyped...oh wait, Felix Hernandez. Felix has put up good numbers and looked nasty at times, but his hype was so much in the minors that he needs to win at least 3 cy youngs to not be a disappointment.

Bonderman has always been inconsistent and ultimately not put up anything better than "good numbers for his age" People can claim injuries, they can claim he is young for blah blah, but ultimately he needs to put up some good consistent and solid numbers for a few seasons.

I think he can definitely be a pretty good pitcher, but just because you strike people out does not mean you are meant for greatness.

Olsen has a pretty small sample size to work with and his second half of 06 was pretty good, especially for a pretty weak team, but clearly last year the wheels just came off. I think he can also right the ship, but he might just lose it if he gets screwed out of several wins this season.

He needs to quit trying to upstage Tony and just focus on pitching.

by IHateMitchMustain on Feb 12, 2008 7:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Regardless of similarity

We can argue about whether or not they are similar, but I didn't really mean for it to be an underlying premise. To me there are quite a few similarities, but there need not be any similarities to discuss potential career trajectories for the two.

As far as actual statistics, Bill James's similarity score for Bonderman and Olsen through age 23 is around 917. And most of the differences stem from the fact that Bonderman hardly spent any time in the minors and had two extra seasons under his belt by age 23, and not from a striking difference in . I realize this is not as robust early in a career, but they are not totally dissimilar.

Ichiro, on facing Daisuke Matsuzaka for the first time: "I hope he arouses the fire that's dormant in the innermost recesses of my soul."

by DaleCoop14 on Feb 12, 2008 4:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

"difference in stats."

typo

Ichiro, on facing Daisuke Matsuzaka for the first time: "I hope he arouses the fire that's dormant in the innermost recesses of my soul."

by DaleCoop14 on Feb 12, 2008 5:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Fair Enough

But I guess I just am having trouble wrapping my head around why we'd pick those two to compare. I didn't know about the Sim Scores, but to me it just seems like a random comparison...It's sorta like saying, who's a better bet, Jeff Francoeur or Ryan Church?

I guess, bottom line, I just feel like Bonderman (if healthy) is a vastly better option than Olsen, and it's hard to even find a baseline for comparison. And that's despite the fact that I actually like Olsen, if he can get his sh*t together.

by Yakker on Feb 12, 2008 6:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

+1

Bonderman gets no respect, and Olsen has traditionally gotten way too much

by bleedjaxblue on Feb 12, 2008 5:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Bonderman

Depending on whether his elbow is healthy, he would be my choice. These were his numbers last July 13th:

113 IP, 108 H, 24 BB's, 103 K's, 1.16 WHIP, 3.50 ERA. He hurt his elbow shortly thereafter, and tried to tough it out. Both his slider and 2-seamer flattened, and he got hammered.

by drwmsu1 on Feb 12, 2008 4:30 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

+1

I remember he was awesome up until he got hurt.

by elrey34 on Feb 12, 2008 7:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

+1

his ERA in the last three months of the year was 5.31, 6.05 and 12.15. this was not a healthy pitcher. i'm not sure why everyone is treating his stats last year as if he "failed to perform" again, when, in fact, he was great during the period he pitched healthy. (and, traditionally, he hasn't faced many injury problems.)

by bleedjaxblue on Feb 12, 2008 7:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

do you think

he will ever be healthy with his mechanics? Or lack of a 3rd pitch?

by pedrophile on Feb 13, 2008 12:23 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

hell....

i would trust you more than anybody else on that first issue.

to me -- yeah, the mechanics look a bit dirty, and i could definitely foresee him being an injury problem long-term. but i don't like to make guesses about pitchers' health, because i'm not that good at it. my only thought was that i hadn't remembered him going on the DL for any extended period before this year.

anyway, what are your thoughts on him?

as for the lack of third pitch -- no. it doesn't bother me much. i still think he's been pretty unlucky, and that he's actually pitching well now. i've probably only seen him pitch 7 or 8 times, but i've probably gamecasted 20 more, and i've never noticed him having problems the second or third time through the lineup (though the stats could prove me wrong). again, i assume you do have a problem here?

by bleedjaxblue on Feb 13, 2008 12:52 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

You are right....

... that most of his problems come early in games. I dont really think his lack of a third pitch hurt him that much, but having one could probably help a lot. His slider is good enough that he can be a very good pitcher with just the two pitches.

Bonderman's biggest problem is that, despite throwing mid-90s, his fastball gets pretty poor results. It has decent movement, though more horizontal than vertical.

I dont know if batters are just able to pick it up easily or what, but his fastball is hit really well. I get the feeling that part of why his slider is so effective is that batters decide that they wont hit it anyway and just go up with the mindset that they will treat every pitch like a fastball. That way, even if they look awful swinging through a slider occasionally, when they are right about his fastball, they smoke it.

The biggest difference a changeup or splitter would likely make is that it would make batters have a little harder time with his fastball. Improving the results with his fastball would be what takes him from a good to a great pitcher.

I reckon I will try to post a little writeup I did on him shortly.

by grozzy on Feb 13, 2008 9:26 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Bondy

It's true that his FB straightened out in the 2nd half when he was a little banged up. Do you know when the Pitch/Fx data was collected? I suspect this could make his data look worse than it really is. According to TV guns, his slider was generally more like 87 or so whenever I watched him. Also, am I right that this is data absed on 500 or so pitches?

Count me in the unlucky/waiting to breakout camp for Bonderman. I know it's human nature to give up on a guy after a few years of failing to meet expectations (if those expectations are ERA based), but I still think he's got the goods. BTW, check out his LOB rates the last four years running. Consistently stranding runners at below-average rates, including a 65% rate in 2007. If you believe (as I do) in regression in LOB rates, 2008 holds some promise.

by Yakker on Feb 13, 2008 12:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Oh, and

I agree that a splitter would be a devastating pitch for him.

by Yakker on Feb 13, 2008 12:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Bondo

I think the 3rd pitch would really help him, even early in games. They are really keying on his fastball. So he has to throw even more sliders. With his mechanics that's not a good thing.

With a fastball/slider combo your fastball better be nasty or you are in trouble with LH hitters. As mentioned his fastball isn't quite nasty enough - either better downward movement or more velocity would do the trick. The trouble is I doubt this will happen.

Even without a 3rd pitch I think he can and will breakout. Actually last year was his breakout. It just didn't last long enough.

I do think he might have a few full seasons where he is productive throughout the year. I just wouldn't be surprised if he has an Avery type of career path. That isn't a bad thing but it's not what the Tigers or what fans are hoping for.

I think the split would be a great pitch for him. But it would put even more problems with his elbow/forearm.

by pedrophile on Feb 14, 2008 6:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Pitcher Profile: Jeremy Bonderman

All pitch f/x data obtained from bornbybits.com
http://baseball.bornbybits.com/php/combined_tool.php

Background: Bonderman enters his age 25 season in already his 6th season in the majors. Though he has flashed periods of dominance, leading him to often be considered a breakout candidate or dark horse Cy Young contender, he has only once finished above league average in ERA. That said, his peripherals show a pitcher who gets a lot of strikeouts and limits his walks well. On the other hand, he has consistently struggled with allowing too many hits, especially in bunches. Underperforming your peripherals can only be considered bad luck for so long.

Stuff: Bonderman's fastball averaged 93.12 mph, touching 96/97 with good horizontal movement. He sports a deadly slider as well, coming in at an average 84.72 mph with sharp late movement, both horizontally and vertically. His third pitch is a changeup that comes in at 86.21 mph, with movement not dissimilar from the fastball.

Pitch Analysis:

Slider: His slider is widely considered his best pitch and its easy to see why. Batters miss nearly 40% of the times they swing at it. He is very effective with it, getting contact-less strikes nearly 36% of the time and scoring a .547 on deception* with it - all well above average for sliders. When batters did make contact with it, they were able to hit it a little harder than the average slider, but not enough to be of concern. In fact, it may be a sign that he will bounce back a bit with it this year. That or its just a sign that when he hangs one they don't miss.

Fastball: This one really surprised me. His fastball was terrible last year. Not only did he not control it well, but batters had no trouble making contact with it. He got very few swinging strikes, and it allowed a higher XBH% than the average fastball. He actually scored one of the worst fastballs in the majors in most of my metrics. I am concerned that this is not a fluke. It would explain a lot about why he consistently underperforms. In fact, it explains why he would struggle early in games, if they focused on establishing the fastball early. Batters that are willing to accept the occasional ugly swing at a slider can go up ready to drive the first hittable fastball they see, and seem to be able to get a good enough look at it to really drive it. This could also explain why his mistakes with the slider got hit so hard.

Changeup: The thing most people point to as Bonderman's problem is his lack of an effective third pitch. He has worked on a changeup, but its still pretty ugly. Although he didn't throw many, so the sample size is small, he scores very poorly with it. It is easy to see why, given that it doesn't get a lot of velocity separation from his fastball, and has nearly identical movement. It basically comes in as a bad fastball, and given that he already struggles with the fastball, the changeup is no different.

Closing Analysis: Right now, Bonderman looks like a one-pitch pitcher. His slider is filthy, and watching his make batters look bad swinging at it makes scouts (and Tigers fans) drool. Unfortunately, his fastball and changeup seem to be holding him back. There is the argument that being hurt caused his fastball to suffer, and I wish I could look at it how it changed late in the season. At this point I am willing to believe that batters see his fastball really well and make solid contact with it consistently. Throwing the slider more early in counts to keep hitters off balance may help, but the biggest help really would be a changeup that he can throw early in the count.

*Deception is percentage of hittable/swung-at pitches that become contact-less strikes (Called Strikes + Swinging Strikes)/(Total pitches - Balls)

Let me know what you all think.

by grozzy on Feb 13, 2008 9:32 AM EST reply actions 0 recs