Predicting BA's Top 100

by rhd on Feb 10, 2008 6:51 AM EST Comment 28 comments

BA will be posting their overall Top 100 prospects soon, maybe next week. I thought it would be fun to try to predict what it will be. I based the list pretty much on the BA Team Top 10's, League Top 20's, last year's BA Top 100 and as many rankings as I know about Callis' Top 50 (almost all of them). But, I also used my own judgment, so there are some discrepancies. I also included 10 Honorable Mentions - BA usually includes these also.

1    Jay    Bruce
2    Evan    Longoria
3    Clay    Buchholz
4    Joba    Chamberlain
5    Clayton    Kershaw
6    Colby    Rasmus
7    Cameron    Maybin
8    David    Price
9    Travis     Snider
10    Homer    Bailey
11    Matt    Wieters
12    Jake    McGee
13    Rick     Porcello
14    Jacoby    Ellsbury
15    Mike    Moustakas
16    Andy    LaRoche
17    Andrew    McCutchen
18    Brandon    Wood
19    Matt    LaPorta
20    Wade    Davis
21    Reid    Brignac
22    Fernando    Martinez
23    Franklin    Morales
24    Carlos    Gonzalez
25    Kosuke    Fukudome
26    Joey    Votto
27    Jason    Heyward
28    Jordan    Schafer
29    Angel    Villalona
30    Jose    Tabata
31    Jeff    Clement
32    Johnny     Cueto
33    Chris    Marrero
34    Desmond    Jennings
35    Austin     Jackson
36    Brett    Anderson
37    Lars    Anderson
38    Gio    Gonzalez
39    Adam    Miller
40    Nick    Adenhart
41    Chase    Headley
42    Josh    Vitters
43    Deolis    Guerra
44    Fautino    De Los Santos
45    Ross    Detwiler
46    Elvis    Andrus
47    Jarrod    Parker
48    Chris    Volstad
49    Matt    Antonelli
50    Ian    Stewart
51    Dexter    Fowler
52    Daniel    Cortes
53    Tim    Alderson
54    Justin    Masterson
55    Phillipe    Aumont
56    Chris    Tillman
57    Carlos    Triunfel
58    Carlos    Gomez
59    Carlos    Carrasco
60    Chin-Lung    Hu
61    Daric    Barton
62    Luke    Hochevar
63    Ian    Kennedy
64    Jair    Jurrjens
65    Jed    Lowrie
66    Manny    Parra
67    Neil    Walker
68    Geovany    Soto
69    J.R.    Towles
70    Chris    Davis
71    Eric    Hurley
72    Greg    Reynolds
73    Brandon    Jones
74    Gorkys    Hernandez
75    Hiroki    Kuroda
76    Jordan    Walden
77    Matt    Latos
78    Stephen    Pearce
79    Hank    Conger
80    Taylor    Teagarden
81    Scott    Elbert
82    Max    Scherzer
83    Radhames    Liz
84    Madison    Bumgarner
85    Aaron    Poreda
86    Beau    Mills
87    Wladimir    Balentien
88    Jeff    Niemann
89    Troy    Patton
90    Chuck    Lofgren
91    Hector    Gomez
92    Brent    Lillibridge
93    Michael    Bowden
94    Tyler    Colvin
95    Adrian    Cardenas
96    Bill    Rowell
97    Colin    Balester
98    Mike    Burgess
99    Drew    Stubbs
100    Chris    Perez
HM    Ryan    Kalish
HM    Will    Inman
HM    Jeremy     Hellickson
HM    Henry    Sosa
HM    Jaime    Garcia
HM    Wes    Hodges
HM    Brett    Sinkbeil
HM    Cole    Rohrbough
HM    Bryan    Anderson
HM    Nick    Blackburn

There are 50 AL players and 50 NL players, so that seems right. There are 55 hitters and 45 pitchers, so that seems about right, too. Tampa has 7 guys, Boston has 6 and Cincy, Oakland, Colorado and Baltimore (surprise!) have 5 each. I dont think any team will get shut out, like San Diego was last year (the Santana trade may have saved Minnesota), altho the White Sox are a possibility. There are 5 teams w only 1 player (Detroit, Toronto, Mets, Houston and ChiSox). I wont bother listing them, but I count 20 guys that made last year's list that wont make it this year, which also seems about right.

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you might want to up andrus a lot

I got the BA book and he ranges from 10-37 in the top 50. Jordan Schafer will also be in the top 25.

by Bravesin07 on Feb 10, 2008 8:13 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

"Schafer will be in the top 25"

Is there really a big enough difference between 25 and 28 to even mention this?

by jonk1982 on Feb 10, 2008 12:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

re:

That is amazing to hear about Andrus. Callis has him at #37. Incredible that all the others have him even higher. BA had him at #65 last year. How can a .681 OPS season merit such improvement? He's very toolsy, but has he gotten significantly more toolsy since last year?

Callis has Schafer at #31, so most of the others must have him higher, too.

I figure if I get about 85 of the names on the list, I've done very well, and if I have most of them placed w/i about 20% of where they end up, I've done very well.

by rhd on Feb 10, 2008 9:37 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

andrus

he ranges from 10-37, but 37 almost looks like the outlier, i can't remember the other two, but his average is 20.5 between the 4. I know that isn't their final 150 and sometimes they change them slightly, but andrus should be top 25. Kline's list is what is going to mix things up, his looks way different than the others.

by IHateMitchMustain on Feb 10, 2008 12:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

also

Nick Blackburn was in three of the top 40s and i think 26 on one maybe. He will assuredly be top 50 due to that fact. I think your list is pretty good, not knowing some guy with no ceiling is going to be rated that high clearly doesn't hurt its accuracy as a whole.

by IHateMitchMustain on Feb 10, 2008 12:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Wow

He must be pretty daned good if he has "No ceiling" eh? Sorry, couldn't resist.

by casejud on Feb 10, 2008 7:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Blackburn

Also amazing re: Blackburn. I thought he might sneak onto the back of the list, but Top 50??? This guy was a fringe prospect until recently. He wasnt ranked at all on any League Top 20. He was drafted in the 29th round in 2001, was 25 y/o all last season pitching at AA and AAA and did not fare well in a brief MLB stint. What is the reason for the major shift of opinion re: him? I know he had a very good AFL stint; AAMOF, I saw him pitch a game there, and he looked good. But his AFL campaign alone cant account for the tremendous rise in his prospect status. I feel like writing to 'Ask BA' about him.

by rhd on Feb 10, 2008 10:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Blackburn

I agree with a lot of what you said, but this guy dominated the minors this season in every category except Ks. That isn't even able to be argued. He had a 41 and 1/3 scoreless innings streak. The guy was on the hot sheet every damn week cause he kept not giving up runs. I think the guy is NOT going to do that well in the majors and I don't think he is projectable. I think he probably already exceeded his ceiling. To quote someone I know "that guy, he's in the top 50? he went to school where? we played them several times in college and I don't even remember thinking they had anyone worth a crap, and that was JUCO" I agree with the dismay, but the guy was the Twins #1 prospect, though I don't agree with that either. I think Robertson probably should be, but apparently only the Twins and not the other 29 teams feel that way.

by IHateMitchMustain on Feb 11, 2008 2:29 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

You started off right with Bruce...

at #1, but they've got Bucholz at 2, and of course many changes there after. Also the Rangers had 7 guys in each of Law's and BP's top 100 and they had 9 from rotowire, but there are only 4 on your list. I forget the exact ranking but I think BA ranked them as the 4th best system. I'm guessing they will have atleast 6 and likely 7.

by groundingout on Feb 10, 2008 10:17 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Law's

List was clearly done while he was drunk. You can discount that.

by IHateMitchMustain on Feb 10, 2008 12:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I liked Law's list

by novaoakland on Feb 11, 2008 4:48 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

why?

was it comfortable when you wadded it up and wiped your ass with it? That would probably be the best use of it. That guy needs to come to work sober apparently.

by IHateMitchMustain on Feb 12, 2008 2:09 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I found it informative

It was different I am not sure that alone makes it bad.

He has a couple guys ranked who BP and BA did not rank that I really agreed with. German Duran and Nolan Reimold to name a couple.

Gutsy rannking of Truinfel stands out. as well as Elsbury in the top 20 which makes good sense to me.

Noted he was big on ARL guys: Truinfel and Villanova (which is fine).

Also Liked his ranking of Main in top 50.
Like the general lower ratnig of Brignac who I am not a fan of.

I did not agree with everything and I have to imagine Gio Gonzalez not getting ranked was an error (remember he does not have the team of people BA and BP do pouring over the lists.

HOpe that explains.

by novaoakland on Feb 12, 2008 4:08 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I've gathered a lot of Callis's list

from his comments and columns.

Jay Bruce
Clay Buchholz
Joba Chamberlain
Evan Longoria
Clayton Kershaw
Mike Moustakas
Colby Rasmus
Cameron Maybin
Travis Snider
Homer Bailey
Franklin Morales
David Price
Rick Porcello
Brandon Wood
Matt Wieters
Angel Villalona
Jason Heyward
Brett Anderson
Jose Tabata
Fernando Martinez
Matt LaPorta
Andrew McCutcheon
Carlos Gomez 28. Carlos Gonzalez - note: one ESPN chat said one, his BA column said the other
Lars Anderson
Jordan Schafer
Jeff Clement
Chris Marrero
Deolis Guerra
Elvis Andrus
Adam Miller
Gio Gonzalez
Austin Jackson
Daniel Cortes
Luke Hochevar
Josh Vitters
Ross Detwiler
J.R. Towles
Chase Headley

Who falls in the gaps?

My guesses? 16-18 are LaRoche, McGee, Cueto. 24 is Votto, 26 is Gomez/Gonzalez, 30 is Lowrie because Callis loves him, 33-34 are Des Jennings, Davis, 44 is Triunfel, 46 is Ian Kennedy, 48-49 are Nick Adenhart and Eric Hurley

Todd Frazier for President

by FrazierFan on Feb 10, 2008 1:19 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Callis 16-18

16-18 Ellsbury, McGee, Davis...most of your others are reversed in that the guys you think are way higher are way lower and visa versa

by IHateMitchMustain on Feb 10, 2008 1:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Guess

Just wondering - how many of these 100+ make their big league debut this year (excluding the ones who already have). Guesses?

by Sox Puppet on Feb 10, 2008 1:36 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Felipe Paulino

Was rated above Patton on the Astros Top 10, so he should be toward the bottom of the list or Patton would be excluded.

by astrosfan76 on Feb 10, 2008 2:29 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Paulino

BA's Top 10's and League Top 20's very often conflict with each other, mostly because they're done by different people. There's no way you can build a completely consistent overall list from them. E.g, on the Texas League Top 20, Paulino is #16, below Patton at #9 (who also is above Towles at #10), and also below such players as Juan Morillo, Sean Rodriguez and German Duran who arent on the list at all. In these situations, I used my own judgement. Patton was on last year's list at #58 and had a solid, if unspectacular, year in 2007 so I figure he may at least make the back end this year. Of course, maybe he wont. The entire list is just an educated guess. But I seriously doubt if Paulino will make the list.

by rhd on Feb 10, 2008 10:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

re

Fair enough. The amount of influence Callis has on the list over Lingo could play a factor on whether any, one, or both make the list.

by astrosfan76 on Feb 10, 2008 11:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

just curious

It was my understanding, though probably something i made up in my head, that all of them make a top 150 and then basically average them out to create a top 100. I didn't really think there were any politics of Callis said vs. Lingo said. I assumed they just attributed 150 pts to #1 slot and so forth down to 150 and then just added all the points up from each list and viola, top 100. Lingo's list does kind of frighten me a little since he is the only guy to have several guys way higher and several way lower...of course the Chris Kline #26 of Engel Beltre is maybe the most awesome ranking i have seen. Yes, that is the Engel that was what, about that low on Sickels' Rangers team list? Of course all of the things we said are subject to change I believe as the top 50s we have seen are not a snapshot of their top 150, it is done at a different time and can change. This I am pretty certain of.

by IHateMitchMustain on Feb 11, 2008 2:38 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

re: curiosity

I read recently (and unfortunately I haven't been able to find the article/chat/mailbag) where Callis mentioned that there was some debate over certain players. I'm pretty sure they do make lists, but it sounded like there is discussion over whether and where some guys belong. Either way, there are enough contributors to the list that Lingo's opinion of Patton vs. Paulino won't make or break their chances of making the top 100.

by astrosfan76 on Feb 11, 2008 11:27 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs