Prospect List Theory

by design28 on Feb 1, 2008 2:30 PM EST

Stop me if you've heard this before: "<WRITER'S NAME WITHHELD> doesn't know what the hell he's talking about! Did you see his top 100 and where he put <INSERT PLAYER NAME>!!!"

I have a small theory I'd like to forward and see if the community can discuss. The top 100's and 50's are coming out and, as an avid fan/follower of prospecting, this year's lists seem to have been pretty, well, unpredictable. I don't recall previous years where so many recent draftees and teenagers have been SO high and plentiful ... is it just me or is minor prospect talent simply down/diluted right now? Beyond Longoria and Bruce how many slam dunks are out there? Granted we can't KNOW who will or who won't make it, but the difference between #25 and #125 this year doesn't seem as large as in past years ...

I guess the most interesting part would be the WHY not just IF this is true ...

I'm not sure this could be quantified (or if anyone else feels the same way), but just something I've noticed particularly this year ...

Thoughts?

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I guess

That a lot of young talent has graduated in the past few years. Maybe more than in the years before, though I'm not sure of a way to quantify that.

http://mvn.com/milb-yankees/

by lemonjello on Feb 1, 2008 2:33 PM EST reply actions

+1

IMO, once you get past the top 10 or so, you could put the rest in a hat and draw names at random and get a defensible list all the way down to #100.

by DrBGiantsfan on Feb 1, 2008 3:01 PM EST reply actions

Mr Sickels, if you would ...

I saw your comment about wanting to write up something about 'Prospect Lists' in general in the Diary destroying Keith Law ... would you have any thoughts about this particular diary topic? It's just amazing me to see Jarrod Parker, Villalona, Porcello, Truinfel etc etc so HIGH and so many draftees as highly perched this year ... or are prospectors just more confident that a Moustakas is SO surely the real deal they'll place him in the Top 10 sight unseen?

I've never seen Moustakas swing a bat, but a top 10 spot for a HS kid who isn't in the scouting community's AROD-GRIFFEY-CHIPPER JONES class? Just seems a little like a reach this year ...

Thanks!

Paul Householder, Gary Redus, Tommy Lawless, Duane Walker ... prospects rawk!

by design28 on Feb 1, 2008 3:44 PM EST reply actions

Can you even say Bruce is a slam dunk

He could become another Geoff Jenkins if he can't control the strikezone.

by Bravesin07 on Feb 1, 2008 4:33 PM EST reply actions

Response

Geoff Jenkins is a career .277/.347/.496 hitter with 200+ career HR.

In other words . . .that'd be a hell of a downside.

by mrkupe on Feb 2, 2008 12:22 AM EST up reply actions

yep

And for the strat players out there, he's almost always pounded righties and played good defense, meaning that only against LHP did he really fail to develop fully. That would be a disappointment for Bruce, but certainly not awful.

by BobbyMac on Feb 3, 2008 3:41 PM EST up reply actions