Brian Bogusevic
by Take3 on Dec 9, 2008 6:14 PM EST
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PrintWhy do people not see him as a top 100 prospect? I know he's unproven and only had about 200 AB's under his belt, but he is a tools galore. Good speed, great power, and has shown the ability to take a walk and hit for a good average (albeit 200 AB's). He also plays good defense and just seems like the complete package. He could be(if he stays in the Astro's minor league system) a top 20 prospect by the end of this year.
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Guilty until proven innocent
The guy was born in 1984 and he has 159 at bats in professional baseball, none above Double-A. I understand why you’re excited for the guy, but slow down. He had a wildly high BABIP and he was old for a prospect at his levels. The guy looked great and he’s a terrific story, but age and small size caveats don’t get much more severe than this. The guy is going to begin his traditional peak ages while in his first full year of professional baseball as a hitter.
It’s unfair to rank him ahead of guys who have longer track records at younger ages, with equal or better scouting reports.
Well
In terms of experience, he’s not young. I know, in comparison to other player’s age at that level, it doesn’t look like much of an accomplishment but it was his first time hitting on regular basis and he hit well. At AA.
Any arguements that are on the basis of his age really aren’t much of an arguement for me. He’s going to be what….25 years old next year? That’s not too old, especially if he reaches the majors next year(very possible). Plus, its his FIRST FULL YEAR, so saying he’s too old for the league is empty since he has never hit in the league before.
Yeah, 159 AB’s isn’t alot. I acknowledge he doesn’t have enough AB’s to have a legitimate analysis on his stats but its definitely encouraging to see him put a .371/.431/.556 line with 11.1% BB rate and a 16.7% K rate.
Before we go into the scouting aspect….what do you think of Bogusevic in terms of potential? What I’ve read of him, I’ve been blown away.
Look...
He’s already done remarkably well for someone in his circumstances, but your argument is entirely based around the idea that he’ll beat even greater odds. What’s his potential at this point? Maybe a left-handed Marlon Byrd, if everything breaks right. But I’m telling you, it’s too early to put him on a top 100 list, especially given the factors weighing against him other than the small sample size. I think it’s too early to put someone like Brad Holt on there, too.
Again, great story, and I’m rooting for the guy. He’s extremely talented, but he’s fighting an uphill battle, and a couple hundred promising plate appearances don’t mean he’s nearly won it yet.
the good BABIP
is a great thing. The fact that he could rebound from such a layoff, start hishitting career in AA and hit so well means he is pretty good.
BABIP is a skill for hitters (and pitchers, but more so hitters) and a high one, even an “unrepeatable” high one is never a bad thing. An overly high one is just a strong indicator that a player’s BABIP “talent” is strong and when you consider the other factors Bogusevic has gone through it is very, very encouraging.
I might agree
if Bogusevic had posted high BABIP numbers over a few full seasons in the minors. However, given the very small sample size, it seems premature to decide that he has a strong BABIP “talent”.
http://mvn.com/milb-yankees/
it is extremely unlikely
that a guy with out a great talent for BABIP could even approach 400s, even with the small sample size, jumping right into AA.
All variations are not equal. Kind of how when an OK pitcher has a great year he puts up a 3.5 ERA but when a great pitcher has a great year it is a 2.5 ERA. Its late, and I’m explaining sloppily… but even in flukey stats some meaning can be had. The ability to go right into AA and play well enough to even be in a position to have a mid 400s BABIP with some luck is a strong point in Bogy’s favor.
haha, that's because he was a pitcher. But, still true...
Bogusevic was never a plus power guy – although he looks like one with his height – even when he was at Tulane. With Bogusevic the Astros have an average centerfielder defensively with a great arm, who is above average offensively, plus plate discipline, plus instincts, above average speed, and average power – maybe even a little more who knows. Does that make him a top 100 guy? Well, maybe, maybe not. He’s a guy everyone will have a different opinion about because of the few ABs. I think it is safe to say that he will be in the conversation between #90 and #100, and should in everyone’s top 120.
by byronlhsdrmr on Dec 9, 2008 10:17 PM EST up reply actions
keep in mind
his whole junior year at Tulane he was hitting with no legs… hence no power. The fact that he managed to keep his BA high enough, and pitch well, while playing through his injuries speaks highly of him.
Bogusevic's power
I’ve heard he has alot of power. Power, plate discipline, speed, defense, and the ability to hit for average. Yeah, top 100 prospect for me.
You've heard?
Rumor, small sample size, turns 25 before playing his first full pro season as a position player. No, not top 100 prospect.
Actually, I didn't hear, I read
http://www.caller.com/news/2008/jul/10/hooks-feel-pinch-of-astros-poor-drafting/
“That’s the best thing (Houston) could’ve done with him,” the scout said. “He was an outfielder in pitcher’s clothing. He was one of the better hitters the year he came out of (Tulane). This kid has ungodly power, he can hit, he’s got the best arm in that organization and runs as good as anyone in that organization. This is a good move for them.”
I am really interested to see how Sickels will grade the Astros' best prospects...
He’s a tough grader, especially with prospects with few pro playing time. Are Bogey, and Castro Bs? How about some of the younger pitchers, i.e. Jordan Lyles, and Ross Seaton, C+s?
Predictions
Castro B
Bud Norris B- (okay performance along with Ks, but John has liked him for a while and he wowed in the AFL)
Seaton B-
Bogusevic C+ (too old, not enough experience to go any higher even with his talent)
Lyles C+
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