Toronto Blue Jays Top 20 Prospects for 2009
by John Sickels on Dec 8, 2008 3:27 PM EST
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We are a long way from the days of Jerry Garvin
All grades are EXTREMELY PRELIMINARY and subject to change. Don’t get too worried about exact rankings at this point, especially once you get out of the top 10. Grade C+/C guys are pretty interchangeable depending on what you are looking for.
1) Travis Snider, OF, Grade A-: In the long run I’m not worried about the strikeouts, but might struggle at times in the early going.
2) Brett Cecil, LHP, Grade B+: I like him a lot. Love the strikeout/groundball combination.
3) David Cooper, 1B, Grade B: Almost went with B+ because I think the home runs will come.
4) J.P. Arencibia, C, Grade B-: Improved defense is good news, horrible plate discipline likely to eat into his batting average.
5) Justin Jackson, SS, Grade B-: A high grade you might think. But I buy into the projection and I think he will ultimately hit.
6) Brad Mills, LHP, Grade B-: Impeccable numbers overall, but fly ball ratio is a concern and as a finesse guy he has to be perfect.
7) Kevin Ahrens, 3B, Grade C+: I will give him a break due to youth and the fact that no one hit at
8) Ricky Romero, LHP, Grade C+: Another guy with a higher grade than you might expect given the numbers, but I will cut him slack one more year.
9) Mark Rzepczynski, LHP, Grade C+: I actually like him a lot, love the ratios and the grounders, but want to see at higher levels.
10) Scott Campbell, 2B, Grade C+: Frank Catalonotto Part II Electric Boogaloo
11) Brad Emaus, 2B, Grade C+: Frank Catalonotto Part III In 3-D (hits right-handed)
12) Eric Thames, OF, Grade C+: One of my favorites from the 2008 draft. Just needs to get healthy.
13) Luis Perez, LHP, Grade C+: Interesting lefty with good numbers, strong ground ball rate.
14) Andrew Liebel, RHP, Grade C: Polished strike-throwing college guy, needs to show at higher levels for a higher grade.
15) Tyler Pastornicky, SS, Grade C: Speed, walks, defense, youth. Will power show?
16) Robert Ray, RHP, Grade C: Looks like he could be a good utility pitcher.
17) John Tolisano, 2B, Grade C: Another young guy who couldn’t hit at
18) Markus Brisker, OF, Grade C: Tools guy who looks like a sleeper to me.
19) Chad Beck, RHP, Grade C: Acquired from
20) Tim Collins, LHP, Grade C: Great numbers, great human interest story as a 5-7 lefty signed as a free agent out of high school. Yes I know he’s not really as good a prospect in the classic sense as some of the guys in the “other” category, but I want to point him out. He’s cool.
Others: Bobby Bell, RHP; Fabio Castro, LHP; Yohermyn Chavez, OF; Brian Dopirak, 1B; Eric Eiland, OF; Edgar Estanga, LHP; Alan Farina, RHP; Danny Farquhar, RHP; Balbino Fuenmayor, 3B; Kyle Ginley, RHP; Brian Jeroloman, C; Scott Richmond, RHP; Moises Sierra, OF; Mark Sobolewski, 3B; Nathan Starner, LHP; Kenny Wilson, OF.
If there is someone else that you really think should be included, make your case. I always miss someone. Space is limited and some of the players above will probably get cut if I have to add someone else.
SYSTEM IN BRIEF:
The Jays have been adding more tools guys lately, being more aggressive in
I still really like
Reports on these guys and over 1,000 others can be found in the 2009 Baseball Prospect Book. Pre-order for January 31st shipping now!
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my comments
glad to see you didn’t rank Jeroloman in the top 20, i don’t think he has much of a ceiling and is often overhyped in bluejay circles.
Cambell/Emaus….if they are indeed Catalanotto and can stick at 2B that is extremely valuable, and i would have given both B-. Frank with league average D at 2B would have a few more million in his pockets. Also think Fuenmayor should be ranked higher
Surprised
I was actually surprised not to see Jeroloman in the top 20 – same goes for Fuenmayor and Y. Chavez.. Maybe this speaks to the depth of intrigue in the system, if not so well of the lack of top-end stuff.
Post Title
The title of this post currently says “Toronto Blue Jays Top 20 Prospects in Review.” Shouldn’t it be “Toronto Blue Jays Top 20 Prospects for 2009?”
Tim Collins
Ecstatic to see Tim Collins in the top 20. I write for the Worcester Telegram & Gazette newspaper and covered Tiny Tim when he was a high schooler at Worcester Tech and when he was playing American Legion ball. Didn’t get to see the game but I’m pretty sure he tossed a no-hitter in the Central Mass title game against Auburn. Talk of the sports department when he did that. Don’t know if the Jays have had him in the weight room but I would say it would be generous to call him 130-140 lbs at the time. I know I’m ranting and raving but we don’t get many guys out of Worcester. Great makeup, great kid, great stuff for a kid his size also.
Romero
Based on what I’ve read, it seemed as if Romero improved his stock somewhat at the end of the season when he was with Syracuse. A C+ is probably most appropriate, though.
A few reports say he could still be a 3/4 type starter and may get some starts in the majors in 09.
Don't like Cecil, was awful when I watched him
Hit 94 and was in the 90-93 range. No command of his slider or fastball. Allowed a 450 shot to Juan Miranda.
At least
he has actually seen some guys play. Yes you can’t read too much into one game but you can tell some things by watching a guy play once. At least when he makes a stand on his take on a player’s talent it is based on HIS watching of the player.
There is nothing more nauseating that to read posters speaking definitively about a player they have never seen play
by nms on Dec 8, 2008 6:52 PM EST up reply actions
I'll give Cecil a pass in that game though
It was his AAA debut and the stands were packed with over 12,000 people against the Yankees, but in that game I did put in a BJ Ryan reference though if he went to the bullpen.
Nauseating?
Kind of an overstatement, don’t you think?
I agree if someone says “He’s got a better curve than AJ Burnett” and he’s never seen it thrown then he is, at best, parroting someone else’s observation (which all that needs is a qualifier like “I’ve read that” or some such to be reasonable) BUT if a person states definitively “This guy induces a lot of ground balls” or “this guy has a great K rate” – you can look at a stat sheet and reach that conclusion. There’s nothing wrong with speaking definitively about things which can be learned without watching a player in action.
If someone is prone to drawing strong conclusions from one viewing
it would be better if he had never seen these guys play at all.
and to be clear
Its the “Dont like Cecil” part that’s wacky here. If he had said:
Cecil was awful when I watched him
Hit 94 and was in the 90-93 range. No command of his slider or fastball. Allowed a 450 shot to Juan Miranda.
That would be useful info. Its the fact that someone drew a conclusion here from going to one game and seeing a guy once that is objectionable. You could catch Babe Ruth on a bad day and it wouldnt mean jack s***. Seeing a guy play once is an absolutely useless way to evaluate him. You really would be better off seeing nothing but statistics or nothing but scouting reports.
I'm just confused
Isn’t a lefty who sits in the low 90s a GOOD thing?
Was he expecting a southpaw pumping out 97-98 MPH fastballs to all corners of the zone?
In terms of unhelpful one game observations . . .
I saw him through 7 no-hit innings before getting pulled in a AAA Syracuse game. So he’s the next Roy Halladay, right?
I kid, I kid . . .
by knuckleballer on Dec 9, 2008 8:44 AM EST up reply actions
Jon Talley
played Catcher in rookie ball and hit .300/.348/.493 as a 19 yr old. I’d rather hear your thoughts/scouts thoughts on him than some of the relief prospects.
talley
Didn’t put him in due to horrible plate discipline and repeating the league. You could rate him as a Grade C,
talley
the only reason talley repeated was due to a badly sprained elbow occurring during spring training and kept there to make full recovery which lasted deep into june. agree that plate disipline does need to inprove but what he does have, all of 200 ABs since turning pro? someone must think there is potential there ie being selected post season all star. sounds as if dick scott might think so also.(see interview) i like talley and i think he’ll hit and with power.
great list
I agree with much of that – won’t quibble on Jeroloman – but mildly surprised Balbino didn’t make the cut.
If I were to make a case for someone not mentioned it would be Loewen. I understand that there’s no pro-evidence to consider on him as hitter, but based on what scouts thought of him as a hitter coming into the draft i think a nod his way would be worthwhile. Perhaps sometime in the future do a thread specifically on his chance of replicating Ankiel’s success?
Balbino
I thought about him at 20 but decided to go with Collins due to his story. Remember, Grade C guys are interchangable at the bottom of the list.
Joel Carreno
Not even a mention of Joel Carreno? I think he’s one of the more intriguing arms in the Jays system. Strong K, BB and reasonably good HR%. Doesn’t get as many groundballs but not every prospect in the system can put up Brett Cecil numbers.
BA’s report from last year had his two-seam FB at 89-93 with good sink and movement and a potential plus change. His slider apparently needs work but with those two pitches and the numbers he’s put up as a pro I think he should be considered a borderline top 20 prospect for the Jays.
Not the best farm in the AL EAST...
…but it is still a solid system. That division has a fierce competition going on with every farm in there. Think about it. There isn’t a system in the AL EAST that would be considered weak at this point: Rays, Red Sox, Orioles, Yankees, Jays. At one point maybe you could have argued against the Yankees but they’ve made some gains pretty quickly.
no.
yankees system > blue jays system
--Pablo Zevallos of yankeesfuture.wordpress.com
by Pablo Zevallos on Dec 8, 2008 11:15 PM EST up reply actions
Oh really?
Snider > Jackson
Cecil > than anything else Yanks have
and it sure seems like the Jays have about as much depth.
Kenny Rodriguez
I’m under no illusion he’s a top 20 guy but I wonder if he has a future, despite hiting a wall when he went to AA.
Rodriguez
I was actually about to come lobby for him as a top 20 guy.
When BA posted their Jays Top 10, I emailed Matt Eddy, who made the list, about Rodriguez. I really like his chances of reaching the majors in some capacity. Here’s what Eddy said:
“Rodriguez may be someone they plug into the back of the rotation or into a middle relief role. They gave him some money to sign and he’s got four avg to tick-below pitches.”
This is a guy who was highly touted coming out of Cuba, signed for $800K, and really didn’t disappoint. I think he’ll be at least decent at the major league level.
by RedSoxFaithful on Dec 9, 2008 1:21 AM EST up reply actions
Some comparisons
I mean, how could someone take Beck over him? Yes, he struggled at AA, but… well, look at this.
Player A: 111.2 INN, 104/24 K/BB, 23 at A+
Player B: 167.0 INN, 132/45 K/BB, 24 at A+/AA
Player C: 112.2 INN, 108/28 K/BB, 22 at A/A+
Player D: 102.0 INN, 106/22 K/BB, 22 at A
Player A is Rodriguez. Players B and C were on the list (Ray and Beck, respectively), and Player D, a relief prospect, was an honorable mention (Estanga). Yes, Rodriguez’s numbers are not clearly better, and his awful stint at AA brought his stock down, but he’s competitive in this group, certainly, and the difference isn’t so great that he shouldn’t even be mentioned. And, sure, Rodriguez has fly-ball tendencies, but so do Beck and Liebel (SSS, but still).
by RedSoxFaithful on Dec 9, 2008 1:33 AM EST up reply actions
Rodriguez
The problem is, Rodriguez isn’t just a little bit of a fly-ball pitcher … to give up 14hr in 111 innings in the florida state league is horrible (especially after you compare FSL HR totals to other leagues). To me giving up HRs in the lower minors, when most hitters are still developing their power, is a huge red flag. It’s about more the GB/FB rate.
The Jays....
Could maybe use another LHP or two, but other than that they look well-rounded.
I was thinking the opposite
As I scanned the list, I was impressed with the number of lefties with promise in their system.
I actually thought that was sarcasm
because the Jays are always drafting or otherwise acquiring southpaws
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
Sarcasm? or misstatement?
I think if there’s anything the Jays have a lot of its LHPs.
In the majors Purcey is starting, and in the pen are Ryan, Downs, Tallet, Carlson and Parrish.
Prospects 2, 6, 8, and 9 (according to John) are all LH starters. Two ended the year in AAA, one in AA, and one in A (and he should have been pushed up this year).
Shortcomings
As an organization, 3B is a weakness. Rolen can be solid when healthy, but when is he really healthy? If Hill is back, that would leave Scutaro open to playing 3B, but he doesn’t really have the bat to play there regularly. Perhaps Russ Adams – not really sure where he’s been playing in the minors of late, or if his arm can be relied upon. Ahrens may be the solution long-term, but I can’t see him being ready before September ‘11 at the earliest based on all I’ve read.
by ofsticksandbats on Dec 9, 2008 10:15 AM EST reply actions
Rolen
Played 70% of the season each of the last 2 seasons. Obviously not as much as you want, but not an amount that makes you desperately have to seek a replacement or anything. Sure, having a better backup would be nice, but nothing the Jays should be devoting much salary to. As a backup, either Scutaro or Jose Bautista are fine. The organization has much larger problems than the offensive production out of a 3bman who might play 30% or so of the season.
Assuming Rolen is unable to play
the Jays don’t really have a long-term solution at 3rd, but they have a lot of guys who could fill in without destroying the team’s chances. An Inglett/Scutaro or Inglett/Bautista platoon could adequately hold down the fort while Rolen is out, and Scott Campbell has also been working out at third and he could fill in at third during a Rolen injury, similar to how Hill broke into the majors. Emaus could also factor in, not this season but perhaps next. None of those guys (except perhaps Emaus, depending on how he develops) will provide the level of offensive production you ideally want from a corner infielder, but they’ll get the job done -a Scoot/Inglett platoon would offer reasonable on-base skills and solid defense, while Campbell could hit at the top of the order if he shows anywhere near the plate discipline he’s had in the minors.
Shortstop is a much more glaring weakness, since it’s not clear that Scutaro has the skills to play SS every day and even if he is, a Scoot injury would place the Jays in the position of having to see John MacDonald “hit” every day, with no help at all coming in the minors. Though Jackson already likely has the glove for it, he’s no closer to the majors than Ahrens. That said, Pastornicky could well pass Jackson this season depending on how the two hit, but there’s a lot more help at 3rd than at SS coming a lot sooner.
You’re definitely right that Ahrens is far off, and it’s never wise for a team to pin its future on one prospect in the low minors, so the team could definitely use more depth around the infield, including at 3rd.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
Re: Depth at short
There are still those who beleive that Hill could play short in a pinch. As for Scutaro, the traditional fielding stats say he was well above average at SS last year, with above-average marks in both RF and F% – for what that’s worth.
by ofsticksandbats on Dec 9, 2008 11:14 AM EST up reply actions
Davis Romero?
John – not sure if you just don’t like him enough, but Davis Romero was solid starting in Syracuse this year after coming off a year off in 2007.
Minor nitpick / suggestion
Just a suggestion, John. Top 20 lists would look much, much better with the names in bold font.
Not sure if this has been mentioned yet (I haven’t been able to visit here as frequently as I’d like to lately).
Anyway, just a pedantic suggestion on how a great website could look even better.
Jerry Garvin??
He was horrible for all 5 years that he played…………
by schmosterballs92 on Dec 9, 2008 10:04 PM EST reply actions
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