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Cincinnati Reds Top 20 Prospects for 2009

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My favorite Cincinnati Red of all time is Ken Griffey Sr.

Cincinnati Reds Top 20 Prospects for 2009

 

All grades are EXTREMELY PRELIMINARY and subject to change. Don’t get too worried about exact rankings at this point, especially once you get out of the top 10. Grade C+/C guys are pretty interchangeable depending on what you are looking for.

 

1) Yonder Alonso, 1B, Grade B+: Love the walks, strong power, but sharp platoon split keeps him from higher grade at this time.
2) Todd Frazier, INF, Grade B: I like him. A nice solid hitter, maybe not a star, but should be productive. Only question is defense.

3) Chris Valaika, SS, Grade B: I like him, too. Looks like a fine hitter, even without strong plate discipline. Probably more a 2B than SS.

4) Neftali Soto, 3B, Grade B: Very impressed with his long-term potential. Could use more patience, but strikeout rate isn’t bad and he’s very young.

5) Drew Stubbs, OF, Grade B-: Where did the power go? Other skills are coming along nicely.

6) Josh Roenicke, RHP, Grade B-: Very impressive arm, could be a closer perhaps.

7) Zach Stewart, RHP, Grade B-: Strong arm, command issues, could move fast in the pen. Maybe a C+?

8) Kyle Lotzkar, RHP, Grade B-: Might downgrade to C+. Very young, tons of potential, command and injury issues. This is one of my “intuition guys” though.

9) Daryl Thompson, RHP, Grade C+: He’s a solid pitcher if he can stay healthy, a big if. I’ve liked him since I shadow-drafted him out of high school.

10) Juan Francisco, 3B, Grade C+: Enormous power potential, very young, but dismal discipline. Did reduce strikeouts last year.

11) Ramon Ramirez, RHP, Grade C+: Could rank as high as 8 depending on what you want to emphasize. Small right-hander with a strong arm, took step forward in ’08.

12) Chris Dickerson, OF, Grade C+: Tremendous tools. He’s more a .250 hitter than a .300 guy, but with speed, power, and defense. Older prospect, which limits his grade.

13) Matt Maloney, LHP, Grade C+: Another guy I have liked for awhile, could be a decent strike-throwing fourth starter.

14) Chris Heisey, OF, Grade C+: Like the speed, gets on base, could be solid fourth outfielder.

15) Sean Henry, OF, Grade C+: A bit less speed than Heisey, but with more pop.

16) Dan Dorn, OF, Grade C+: Kills right-handers, could be a solid platoon bat.

17) Dallas Buck, RHP, Grade C+: Sleeper prospect acquired from Arizona, could surprise now that he’s further away from Tommy John.

18) Robert Manuel, RHP, Grade C+: One of several guys who could slot in nicely as a middle reliever.

19) Carlos Fisher, RHP, Grade C: Considered C+, another potential relief arm with ability.

20) Yorman Rodriguez, OF, Grade C: Too young and raw to rank higher in my system. Need to see some numbers first.

21) Juan Duran, OF, Grade C: Too young and raw to rank higher in my system. Need to see some numbers first.

 

Others include Alex Buchholz, Scott Carroll, Zach Cozart, Ramon Geronimo, Ryan Hanigan, Danny Ray Herrera, Jeremy Horst (a sleeper!!), Ben Jukich, Sam Lecure, Devin Mesoraco, Adam Rosales, Juan Carlos Sulbaran, Justin Tuner, Pedro “Don’t call me Frank” Viola, Sean Watson, and Byron Wiley.

 

If there is someone else that you really think should be included, make your case. I always miss someone. Space is limited and some of the players above will probably get cut if I have to add someone else.

 

SYSTEM IN BRIEF:

    The Reds graduated a lot of talent last year, and while things have thinned at the top, there is more depth in this system than is commonly realized. They have an interesting mix of polished college-type bats (Alonso, Frazier, Valaika), along with toolsy Latin American guys at the lower levels. While they could use some more impact arms, they have several pitchers who look like they will provide bullpen depth down the line. There’s quite a bit of C+ type talent here and guys who could be good role players.

    Ranking players like Yorman Rodriguez and Juan Duran is difficult. I have usually not included many guys like that in the book until they hit North America, but will stick more in this year. I know what the scouting reports say on these players, and you will no doubt see them ranked much higher in other sources. But so many of the uber-tools guys fail completely that I just can’t go higher on these grades until we get something objective to examine. Even North American high school kids are easier to grade since scouts can often see them in showcase competition and get better reads on their ability.

Remember what Grade C means: “These are guys who have something positive going for them, but who may have a question mark or three, or who are just too far away from the majors to get an accurate feel for. A few Grade C guys, especially at the lower levels, do develop into stars.”

 

Reports on these guys and over 1,000 others can be found in the 2009 Baseball Prospect Book. Pre-order for January 31st shipping now!

 

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I like this list

Seems solid and fair … although compared to the Reds fans list in the other thread, I imagine they’ll voice some complaints, but hey, all fans of teams do that.

by toonsterwu on Dec 6, 2008 11:37 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Mesoraco

According to dougdirt (I know, I know) he did look solid in instructionals, but he didn’t do all that much this year when he did play and IIRC, there were a lot of scouts who thought that his conditioning sucked and that he wasn’t projecting especially well behind the plate. But I don’t have sources (to answer dougdirt) on that.

Personally I would’ve given a mulligan on this year (C+) and waited to see what he did next year. But John attends an awful lot of Midwest League games, and his contacts in the MWL are about as good as you’ll find outside of the major league organizations themselves. If he thinks that Mesoraco is a C prospect, I’d be willing to guess that he’s got plenty of reasons for giving that grade.

by mrkupe on Dec 7, 2008 12:11 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Mesoraco

I wonder how many people know he was catching bullpen sessions between innings ALL YEAR long of games he was playing in and not playing in? The guy was probably wore out to be honest.

As for his conditioning, the only thing I really saw that said anything about it was that he was ‘puffy’ over at BP. What that means, people took their own liberties to assume. If people think it means he got fat, they are completely incorrect.

by dougdirt on Dec 7, 2008 12:20 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

20 year old high school catcher

He battled thumb injuries last year, and was streaky this year. He’s raw.

by Dave from Louisville on Dec 7, 2008 12:21 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

raw

He’s very raw and I didn’t have good reports on him in the midwest league.

by John Sickels on Dec 7, 2008 1:27 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

makeup

I don’t have a source hear but I think I remember reading that he did not have the greatest attitude. I could be wrong however

by eaheckman10 on Dec 7, 2008 7:24 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I know he is a ways out

but do you have any info on Oscar Castro?

I know hes a big framed kid that throws a high 80’s to 90 mph sinker, and a developing Change and Curve.

Any other info?

by laxtonto on Dec 6, 2008 11:59 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

castro

I considered him but not enough room. Grade C type at this point.

by John Sickels on Dec 7, 2008 1:27 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Others to consider John

Evan Hildenbrandt – Good stuff, good size, good results. Needs to prove himself more though at higher levels.
Travis Wood – Dealt with injuries in 2007, still throws 89-92 MPH with a plus change up, also throwing a cutter now. Size is an issue as is health, still, good stuff from a 21 year old lefty.
Philippe Valiquette – Hard throwing lefty reliever, sits 93-95 MPH with FB. Offspeed stuff needs work, still just 21.
Jordan Smith – Big bodied, strong arm with a FB up to 95 MPH and a very strong sinker.

Just some other guys to think about.

by dougdirt on Dec 7, 2008 12:25 AM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Travis Wood

He is a favorite of yours isn’t he? Thought I remember you talking about him a good bit on PP not long ago.

by jfish26101 on Dec 7, 2008 12:49 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

He has an incredible change up

He needs to put together a full season (140 ip at least) and show he can stay healthy, but stuff wise he has a good fastball and a great change up. Just a lot of potential in his left arm.

by dougdirt on Dec 7, 2008 12:54 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Where would Homer Bailey rank?

Essentially, how far do you think his stock has dropped?

by demondeaconsbaseball on Dec 7, 2008 2:10 AM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Not John

But Homer Bailey to me has slipped his stock some, but I still feel if he were eligible I would rank him in the 20-30 range overall in the minor leagues. His stuff is still there as he sat 93-96 his last outing of the year, has an above average slider, change, and curveball. He also will start next season at age 22.

by dougdirt on Dec 7, 2008 9:27 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

homer

I’m starting to wonder about Homer. The results just haven’t been there consistently. He’s very young of course, but I think a change of scenery might help him, sort of a reverse Edison Volquez thing.

by John Sickels on Dec 7, 2008 1:28 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Brandon Waring

A little old for his league and bad strikeout numbers, but obviously there are questions on his ability to hit at higher levels even though he has monster power. A C+ grade from John last year, I’ve heard only his defense described as fringe average but with a good arm. I think he posted the second highest OPS in his league this past year – anyone see or hear anything more?

by Grudyfan on Dec 7, 2008 2:52 AM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Agreed on the Mesoraco questions

I;d love to know more details. I’m not saying it is wrong, I’ve never seen him play, I’d just like to hear why.

Hitting 261 with a 710 OPS isn’t great but remember that in the Midwest League that is pretty much league average… and if any prospect can be merely league average and still be having a good year it has got to be a 19 year old catcher just 12 months removed from being the 15th pick

by nms on Dec 7, 2008 2:53 AM EST reply reply actions actions   1 recs

Agree

Can we get an explanation on this?

by dchurg on Dec 7, 2008 11:28 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I went to to Dayton Dragons games last year

very small sample size, and I am not a scout especially on catching, so I will tell you what I saw. I am also basing this on memories from six months ago, which may have faded.

Mesoraco hit a home run down the line, and a couple of balls into the gap. His power impressed me. His arm kinda scared me, it seemed like there was a lot of running, and a few of his throws ended up in center field. I also feel like there was a pass ball or two (but my memory may be deceiving me). Over all I would have to say that the consensus that he is a young raw talent is there. I wouldn’t be on him developing, but I wouldn’t bet against it either. I kinda wish the Reds would have gone for more of a “sure thing” when they drafted Mesoraco, instead I think they were drafting on need. Drafting on need is a terrible idea in baseball, because low round guys like Mike Piazza, Albert Puljols, or Roy Oswalt become superstars, and first round picks like Paul Wilson, Todd van Poppel, Brandon Larson, or Ben Davis don’t develop either do to injury or just for whatever unexplainable reason not being able to hack it at the Major League level.

I guess I am just a bit pessimistic on Mesoraco.

"It is a damn poor mind indeed which can’t think of at least two ways to spell any word."-Andy Jack

by justin007000 on Dec 7, 2008 12:44 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Also

I dont love Zach Cosart.. but he is going to be an MLB player and probably deserves top 15 consideration and Waring deserves at least an hon mention as well.

by nms on Dec 7, 2008 2:55 AM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Cozart

was a C+ last year, with the questions being about his bat. Obviously you can point out that he was 22 this year and repeated the Midwest League, but it looked like his bat took a step forward this year. I am surprised to see him get knocked a grade here as well.

by ajake57 on Dec 7, 2008 6:17 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

pun

So, when a pitcher goes after Alonso and he has to duck out the way of the ball, I guess the pitch would go over Yonder.

by sabernar on Dec 7, 2008 11:43 AM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

good list

i really dont have any problem with it. i think Dorn is too low and Maloney too high, but whatevs.

by Charlie Scrabbles on Dec 7, 2008 11:46 AM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

+1 on dorn and malonely

+1 on dorn and malonely

Touch em all Joe...

by FisherCat on Dec 7, 2008 12:14 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

After what Maloney did last year I am doubting that he will be an effective Major League starting pitcher

perhaps loggy or just left handed reliever is in his future, I don’t know if he has the “stuff” to face a lineup three times.

"It is a damn poor mind indeed which can’t think of at least two ways to spell any word."-Andy Jack

by justin007000 on Dec 7, 2008 12:46 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

maloney

Perhaps I am just stubborn but I still think Maloney can be a good pitcher.

by John Sickels on Dec 7, 2008 1:29 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

i just looked him up

i was surprised to see he struck out 132 batters and walked 39 in 140 innings in AAA last year.

But in 2005 Brandon Claussen struck out 111 hitters over 100 innings in AAA. But he walked 47 hitters.

I just feel like like Maloney will be the next Brandon Claussen, a AAAA pitcher who can get by with his lack of velocity in AAA, but can’t make it over the hump to the big leagues.

"It is a damn poor mind indeed which can’t think of at least two ways to spell any word."-Andy Jack

by justin007000 on Dec 7, 2008 1:54 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Lotzkar

I would keep him at B-. His SO numbers were great. And he is Canadian which usually means he’ll develop late. Considering he is already showing some good stuff, I wouldn’t be shocked to see him break out next season.

Remember: baseball guys... baseball...

by Metty5 on Dec 7, 2008 1:55 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Travis Wood

Interested to hear your thoughts on him, John. He’s always been a boom or bust kinda guy, and certainly looking bust at this point.

Is there any hope? Why can’t he garner at least a C with his stuff?

I'll warm up with you anytime

by ufoboy90 on Dec 7, 2008 5:51 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

wood

I should probably put him in. He would be a Grade C.

by John Sickels on Dec 7, 2008 5:54 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

John any information on Justin Turner?

As you can probably guess I’m a big O’s fan, and I looking at his numbers he looks like a pretty big sleeper candidate. Reminds me a bit of Placido Polanco, but knocking about 30 points of the BA.

by Birdfan01 on Dec 9, 2008 10:41 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

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