Baseball America - Top 20 AFL Prospects
by Baltimo on Dec 5, 2008 3:30 PM EST
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PrintThe link to the top 20 can be found here.
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Arizona Fall League Top 20 Prospects
1. Matt Wieters, c (Orioles)
2. Tommy Hanson, rhp (Braves)
3. Brian Matusz, rhp (Orioles)
4. Logan Morrison, 1b (Marlins)
5. Carlos Triunfel, ss/2b (Mariners)
6. Bud Norris, rhp (Astros)
7. Gordon Beckham, ss (White Sox)
8. J.P. Arencibia, c (Blue Jays)
9. Justin Smoak, 1b (Rangers)
10. Brett Wallace, 3b (Cardinals)
11. Dan Cortes, rhp (Royals)
12. Sean West, lhp (Marlins)
13. Julio Borbon, of (Rangers)
14. Sean Doolittle, 1b/of (Athletics)
15. Tyler Flowers, c (White Sox)
16. Aaron Poreda, lhp (White Sox)
17. Jason Donald, ss (Phillies)
18. Scott Cousins, of (Marlins)
19. Jeff Manship, rhp (Twins)
20. Eric Young Jr., of/if (Rockies)
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Pretty Solid
Smoaks a little low for my liking (I’d probably have him around 4 or 5) but otherwise hard to complain too much
Bud Norris
Man, I wish I had him in my league so I could offer him for either Smoak or Beckham or Wallace or Austin Jackson (who didn’t make the cut) or Greg Halman or Dan Cortes or Arencibia or . . .
the author explained that norris had the best stuff, according to scouts, outside of hanson and matusz.
still kind of an odd ranking but i read similar things about his stuff while in arizona. the fun of small sample sizes, i guess.
murphy
tough for him not to make it considering he was among the league leaders in nearly every offensive category up until he got hurt towards the end…still finished up with a top 5 AVG and a top 3 OBP…but i suppose his value falls if you think he can’t/won’t play at 2B which it looks like he probably won’t, at least not to start ‘09…but i mean of these players who can say they’ve crushed major league pitching? or even AA pitching?
same goes for parnell who was top 3 in era (among starters) and was pretty dominant…although i think if the list were 4-5 guys longer both mets would probably slot in there but i’d put murphy higher…
It’s tough on both those guys, but I think you hit on the reasons why they’re not on here — upside, upside, upside. I’m a big believer in Murphy, but if he can’t play 2B then his value plummets, whereas everyone else on the list has a great chance to be an above average hitter at their position. I’d probably rather have Murphy than someone like Doolittle — because of the known commodity factor — but you can see why BA would set this up like they did.
Rookie Status
All the guys on this list retain rookie status, no? Murphy’s loss of rookie status is what kept him off this list most likely. Parnell had a nice AFL, but he’s not of the caliber of players on this list.
by Mark Himmelstein on Dec 5, 2008 5:41 PM EST up reply actions
whoops
you’re right, i keep forgetting that murphy pinch hit that last day of the season pushing him 1ab over the rookie limit…
although i don’t see how guys like manship, norris and cortes are head and shoulders above parnell in terms of prospect status, even with the AFL performance aside
by Rob Castellano on Dec 5, 2008 6:02 PM EST up reply actions
JP
Maybe this will get some of the community off Arencibia’s balls for a couple days.
Rios is the next Juan Gonzales, thats right, I said it.
AFL Top Prospects Team
This is a separate list from BA, “Selected by Fall League managers, coaches, and administrators” and “Voters were asked to consider Fall League performance and Major League projectability.” They picked 24 guys:
AFL announces Top Prospects Team
SP Tommy Hanson (ATL) — Mesa Solar Sox
SP Kevin Pucetas (SF) — Scottsdale Scorpions
SP Bobby Parnell (NYM) — Peoria Saguaros
RP Bud Norris (HOU) — Scottsdale Scorpions
RP John Bannister (TEX) — Surprise Rafters
OF Eric Young Jr. (COL) — Phoenix Desert Dogs
OF Sean Doolittle (OAK) — Phoenix Desert Dogs
OF Chris Pettit (LAA) — Scottsdale Scorpions
OF Austin Jackson (NYY) — Peoria Javelinas
OF Casper Wells (DET) — Mesa Solar Sox
OF Mike Baxter (SD) — Peoria Saguaros
3B Brett Wallace (STL) — Peoria Saguaros
3B Wes Hodges (CLE) — Surprise Rafters
SS Jason Donald (PHI) — Mesa Solar Sox
SS Gordon Beckham (CWS) — Peoria Saguaros
2B Daniel Murphy (NYM) — Peoria Saguaros
2B Kevin Frandsen (SF) — Scottsdale Scorpions
1B Logan Morrison (FLA) — Mesa Solar Sox
1B Rhyne Hughes (TB) — Peoria Javelinas
CA J.P. Arencibia (TOR) — Phoenix Desert Dogs
CA Matt Wieters (BAL) — Surprise Rafters
DH Tyler Flowers (CWS) — Mesa Solar Sox
DH Mike McKenry (COL) — Phoenix Desert Dogs
DH Jeff Larish (DET) — Mesa Solar Sox
The AFL does tend to be hitter heavy; not as many teams send their top pitching prospects.
Wait
What? Kevin Frandsen takes the place of Triunfel? Matusz is their third overall prospect, yet he doesn’t take a starting slot on the all AFL team?
I’m not sure how much I trust manager’s evaluations in terms of how a prospect will pan out, but Baseball America’s list seems a bit odd.
My best game plan is to sit on the bench and call out specific instructions like 'C'mon Boog,' 'Get ahold of one, Frank,' or 'Let's go, Brooks.' -Earl Weaver
To be clear
The above list is NOT from BA. It seems to be an official AFL thing, which probably weighs performance a bit more, and relies on input from the all those managers coaches, etc. involved in the league. A guy like Matusz, while he might not be as good yet as some of these guys, it’s a pretty good bet he will be.
You're probably right
There is just such a discrepancy between the writer’s list and the manager’s top players. As you mentioned, though, the managers probably value tangible results over stuff in some scenarios.
My best game plan is to sit on the bench and call out specific instructions like 'C'mon Boog,' 'Get ahold of one, Frank,' or 'Let's go, Brooks.' -Earl Weaver
Yes
Certainly seem to be some inconsistencies there. Matuz didn’t have great numbers in the AFL, but Pucetas wasn’t much better, and isn’t especially high ceiling (though excellent minor league numbers so far—just not great in the AFL). And, if Murphy is eligible, despite just exceeding the limits for rookie eligibility this season, I wonder if Scherzer shouldn’t be eligible? Because if eligible he clearly deserves a spot.
Some of the omissions were maybe due to position; Triunfel was listed as a SS, and there he is blocked by Beckham, Donalds, and maybe DeJesus, who also didn’t make it. But, if the object was really to put together a “team”, what “team” as only five pitchers, but 6 outfielders and 3 DH?
On the whole, though, the AFL list seems to be not bad if the intention was to emphasize guys who are going to contribute in the majors very soon, as opposed to future upside. Pretty much every guy they tapped is about MLB ready right now, and the guys passed over mostly really aren’t. So it may just be a matter of how they ask the question.
i thought tyler flowers had one of the best ...
AFL seasons ever for a hitter. if so, then why is he no. 15?
BA is a mess
Carlos Triunfel is number 5 on here, yet Greg Halman’s name is missing. On Seattle’s BA top prospects (see other FanPost), Halman is ranked number 1 and Triunfel is number 4. Ridiculous.
Triunfel got misplaced on the M’s list.. I’m glad he was well represented here.
And "Halman had an awful AFL season" is not the answer
Because this list is obviously not based solely on the ALF performances.
Yes it is
It’s based on a poll of AFL managers. It’s far more performance based than their team lists.
clearly it is
6. Bud Norris, rhp (Astros)
7. Gordon Beckham, ss (White Sox)
8. J.P. Arencibia, c (Blue Jays)
9. Justin Smoak, 1b (Rangers)
10. Brett Wallace, 3b (Cardinals)
11. Dan Cortes, rhp (Royals)
bud norris over those guys if your looking at outside info?
Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
"If I go to this "party", I will give "save us" a piece of my knuckle sandwich…" -- miles
by knockoutking on Dec 6, 2008 11:56 PM EST up reply actions
The list of top 20 AFL prospects, and top 10 Mariners prospects was probably created by two different writers
So, that would explain the Halman, Triunfel mismatch.
by byronlhsdrmr on Dec 15, 2008 1:25 AM EST up reply actions
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