Baseball America top-10 Mariners Prospects

by JonBBT on Dec 5, 2008 11:53 AM EST Comment 59 comments

Greg Halman, of
Michael Saunders, of
Phillippe Aumont, rhp
Carlos Triunfel, ss/2b
Juan Ramirez, rhp
Adam Moore, c
Mario Martinez, 3b
Jharmidy DeJesus, 3B
Dennis Raben, of
Michael Pineda, rhp

I don't quite agree with this. I would go something like:

1. Carlos Triunfel, SS/2B
2. Michael Saunders, OF
3. Phillippe Aumont, RHSP
4. Greg Halman, CF
5. Juan Ramirez, RHSP
6. Adam Moore, C
7. Matt Tuiasosopo, 3B
8. Michael Pineda, RHSP
9. Luis Valbuena, 2B
10. Dennis Raben, 1B/OF

with Martinez and DeJesus at 11 and 12 (either order)

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a bit surprised as well

I thought Triunfel did well enough to justify the first spot.

by toonsterwu on Dec 5, 2008 11:55 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

hmm

I would’ve imagined those top 4 flipped. Actually in the top 100, I wouldn’t be surprised if they are.

As for Halman, did anyone find it interesting they have him sticking in CF and moving Saunders to LF? I thought Saunders had better range.

The Dodgers won't win a playoff series until the Cool-a-Coo returns.

by mckeeno on Dec 5, 2008 11:58 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Halman has much better range.

Saunders is supposedly already stretched a bit in CF. I wish he would stick, but word is he won’t.

by JonBBT on Dec 5, 2008 11:59 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I made that sound like Saunders has NO ability in CF

He definitely does, and can stick there for a few more years, but Halman is quickly becoming Seattle’s best defensive outfielder.

by JonBBT on Dec 5, 2008 12:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks for the report

The Dodgers won't win a playoff series until the Cool-a-Coo returns.

by mckeeno on Dec 5, 2008 12:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Halman = Cameron?

I admittingly have never seen the guy, but he sounds a lot like a former Seattle CF.

Power, speed, and lots of swings and misses.

It seems that right now without improving his pitch recognition, that’s what he might become, if that.

Nothing wrong with the type of career Cameron has put together, but I’m sure most here are hoping for more out of Halman.

Thoughts?

In Todd Jones (*gulp*) we trust?

by sportznut3081 on Dec 5, 2008 8:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Kind of...

More power, similar speed. 3 major differences:
1) Halman’s WAY further advanced than Cameron was at age 20. Halman right now has more raw power than peak Cameron, and he’s still got a lot of room to grow.
2) Cameron knew how to take a walk
3) Halman’s a decent CF with a chance to be above average, but he’ll never be the defender Cameron was.

by slamcactus on Dec 5, 2008 8:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Okay, thanks

I’m just trying to gauge what type of player he might be. I’ve seen all kinds of high end players and low end.

Clearly, he is probably going to be one of those boom or bust, controversial types of specs.

The Tigers are only 11 pitchers, 1 SS, 1 C, 1 3B, and a DH from winning the WS in 2009.

by sportznut3081 on Dec 5, 2008 8:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I would love for him to end up like Cameron.

Cammy is the most underrated Mariner in recent years, probably even more than Adrian Beltre.

But Cammy knew how to get on base, as mentioned. Halman doesn’t, and probably won’t learn it either.

by JonBBT on Dec 5, 2008 9:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I disagree with this statement

Halman’s defense is major league quality now and has the chance to be spectacular. from most accounts and the time I saw him he gets great jumps even though the routes are still somewhat of a problem and mental laspes, things common in young fielders

Don't believe the lies Bill!!!! look at the sparkly ERA!!! Sparkly, Sparkly!!! - McCovey Chronicles

by Trenchtown on Dec 6, 2008 4:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

He's extremely young and has plenty of time. He's already giant leaps.

If he can make enough contact to be a regular, he could be a GG candidate (not that that means anything, but you know what i’m saying).

by JonBBT on Dec 6, 2008 8:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I never said...

he can’t be a quality fielder, but Cameron was the best center fielder alive for a stretch of about 6 years. Halman doesn’t have that high a defensive ceiling. Very few players do.

by slamcactus on Dec 7, 2008 2:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I thought the Cameron comparison was mostly offensive anyway...

by JonBBT on Dec 7, 2008 5:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Halman has too much bust potential to be that high.

I love him and his athleticism, but I’m unconvinced that he can do enough to be a starter in the majors. His ugly AFL showing didn’t help. He has a lot to prove in AAA.

by JonBBT on Dec 5, 2008 12:01 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

this is ba, though

and tools rule the day, or something like that. I don’t disagree, I wouldn’t have had Halman first. I thought Triunfel, Aumont, Ramirez would be the top 3, with Halman, Saunders, Pineda, Raben after.

by toonsterwu on Dec 5, 2008 12:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

yeah

cause triunfel is definitely not a “tools” guy who has never really done anything in real life

by IHateMitchMustain on Dec 5, 2008 5:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

dude

you’re like my angry, thrice divorced chain-smoking aunt. just sitting there on a little perch, waiting to jump down anyone’s throat.

by gogotabata on Dec 5, 2008 6:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

nice

"If you hit .440 with 20 bombs, you don't have to do s---. You don't have to bring a glove to practice, just hit and leave whenever you want. You can bring a 40 and smoke a cigarette and call me from the parking lot asking me what time the game is, and I'll tell you. You can even say 'F--- you, Steve!' Actually, don't say that, that wouldn't be very nice." -Steve Friend, Head Coach, Chabot College Gladiators Baseball

by flipgatey3 on Dec 6, 2008 12:34 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

System's Milked Dry

I love Halman but Triunfel is definitely the best, no reason why he shouldn’t be #1.

As a Canadian I have to love Saunders and Aumont

1. Triunfel
2. Aumont
3. Halman
4. Saunders
5. Ramirez

Member: Coalition For The Advancement Of Canadian Baseball Players

by fischbowl on Dec 5, 2008 12:08 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Nationalism is Dangerous

Don't believe the lies Bill!!!! look at the sparkly ERA!!! Sparkly, Sparkly!!! - McCovey Chronicles

by Trenchtown on Dec 5, 2008 12:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I do love the Ramirez love, however

Too many people have dropped in down the list in Mariner-land because of Pineda’s bite sized ERA this past year. Ramirez is still the better prospect.

by JonBBT on Dec 5, 2008 12:11 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Ramirez has the better stuff

and is likely the better prospect, but Pineda’s FIP was significantly better and improved every month from june on. I think Ramirez prospect value just stayed level while Pineda is on the rise

Don't believe the lies Bill!!!! look at the sparkly ERA!!! Sparkly, Sparkly!!! - McCovey Chronicles

by Trenchtown on Dec 5, 2008 12:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Ramirez is the better prospect

but I get the feeling, from what I’ve seen, that they’re underselling Pineda’s stuff/overall game. He lacks a good breaking ball, but it seems like they went a bit out of their way to marginalize and glaze over his strengths.

by Brett Perryman on Dec 7, 2008 12:04 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Strengths = pin point control

Which is fantastic, but we’re still waiting on that slider to develop and for a couple more MPH on the fastball.

by JonBBT on Dec 7, 2008 3:06 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I love this system

I’m a Mariners homer, but this is maybe my favorite system. Not the best by a longshot, but there’s a density of upside from like 1 to 15 that’s very exciting. Probably lots of busts, but also big upsides all over the place.

My top 10, which I recognize is idiosyncratic

1. Ramirez
2. Saunders
3. Halman
4. Aumont
5. Triunfel
6. Pineda
7. Moore
8. Martinez
9. Julio Morban
10. Fields (assuming he signs)
11. Raben
12. DeJesus
13. Valbeuna
14. Brett Lorin
15. Tyson Gillies

by gogotabata on Dec 5, 2008 12:44 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

opinions on Adam Moore?

does this guy profile as an above-average catcher? his numbers sure say so. what do you guys think? he’s hit every he’s been, he appears likely to stick at catcher, and the Mariners said over the summer that Jeff Clement will see more time at DH (in an apparent attempt to give the starting nod to moore).

what are your thoughts on moore?

by psugator on Dec 5, 2008 1:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

a tick above average

Is my suspicion on Moore, which is nice — a number 7 hitter who plays average defense behind the plate. I would expect a 270/340/430 sort of guy at Safeco.

by gogotabata on Dec 5, 2008 1:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I've heard Michael Barrett comparisons

He’s looking like he’ll end up as average/slightly above average behind the plate, somewhat useful with the stick. Said to handle pitchers well. Getting old for a prospect (injuries), but should be a nice piece of the puzzle.. though Kenji Johjima confuses things.

I like him, but he could be trade bait.

by JonBBT on Dec 5, 2008 5:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Swing and a miss...

on Matt Tuiasosopo. He’s really not far from being a league average player. Take a look at what he did in the second half this year. He should have been ranked in the top 10.

by slamcactus on Dec 5, 2008 1:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I guess I don't see it

I don’t see how much more projection there is in him from where he is right now, and the MLE of his line last year is 245/326/374. I take MLEs with a grain or two of salt, but when a guy is at the peak of his development curve, it seems a decent enough gauge. He’s top 20, certainly, but not a guy who is going to be in your starting lineup (at least I hope not).

by gogotabata on Dec 5, 2008 1:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

MLE

is useless, especially for a guy who’s been rushed. Tuiasosopo clearly figured something out mid-season. He hit zero home runs in April and May, and his previous season high was 9. He then hit 13 in June, July, and August.

In 268 ABs from June 1 until the end of the season, he hit .302/.369/.522. You’re missing a ton of valuable contextual information when you try to apply a blanket measure like MLE to any player who doesn’t have a prototypical development curve.

by slamcactus on Dec 5, 2008 2:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

If Tui continues to improve when it comes to turning on pitches

he could be a nice asset. He’s got another AAA season to prove that his 2nd half wasn’t a fluke. His defense is a problem, though.

by JonBBT on Dec 5, 2008 5:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yep

on all points. I’d like to see him move to a corner OF position. He has the tools to be above average there. Either way, he’s definitely one of the 10 most valuable players in the Mariners’ organization. I wouldn’t trade him straight-up for De Jesus, Martinez, or Pineda.

by slamcactus on Dec 5, 2008 6:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Wow, Ramirez is way too high.

I like him, I think that the Soriano comp they threw out there is somewhat realistic, but I wouldn’t put him as one. I side with the camp that likes him in the 4-6 range.

"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett http://mvn.com/marinersminors/

by JY on Dec 5, 2008 1:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Female intuition

There are just some prospects you get a feeling for. Right now its Juan Ramirez, Pineda, Wilson Ramos, Weglarz, Aaron Hicks as the guys I’m higher on than almost anyone else.

Ramirez’s stuff is superb; Soriano is a nice comp. But I think in terms of pitchability, Ramirez took a quiet leap this season, the sort of leap that Soriano maybe didn’t have time for as a late convert to pitching.

Mostly, his walks improved to 2.76 per 9, from 5.05 last year, while his other components seemed to hold really well. He’s not an exaggerated ground ball pitcher, but he gets great movement and throws what BA calls a ‘heavy’ fastball, which the numbers testify to: 241 batting average against, with .63 homers per 9, and just a 12.6 line drive percentage, which is terrific. He’s actually my #1 candidate for a Trevor Cahill like breakthrough in 09. Their numbers at the same level, both essentially at age 19, though Cahill was younger for his league:

Cahill in 07: 9.84 k/9; 3.36 bb/9; 0.24 hr/9; 56.4 groundball %; 12.5 line drive %; .217 BAA

Ramirez in 08: 8.19 k/9; 2.76 bb/9; 0.63 hr/9; 48 groundball %; 12.6 line drive %; 241 BAA

Cahill is a notch or two higher overall, but I do believe Ramirez is still coming into his stuff, and he still has projection left in him — a bit better frame, a bit better stuff.

by gogotabata on Dec 5, 2008 1:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Oh, I agree that he took a leap.

It’s definitely not something that one gets a grip on just looking at oft-quoted, but less telling numbers, like ERA and record. You certainly make a strong case for him in terms of his rate stats, but I don’t know that I like him better than Aumont so much as I think he has more of a track record at the moment.

My only concern is that the M’s are still operating with their advanced-A affiliate in High Desert, and those three big arms from the T-Rats rotation could be in for trouble next year.

"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett http://mvn.com/marinersminors/

by JY on Dec 5, 2008 2:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

you like tabata?

and now you are saying you like people I like such as weglarz and hicks, crap, well I guess I am more clueless than I thought

by IHateMitchMustain on Dec 5, 2008 5:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

ha

I compared you to my aunt even before I read this one. Yeah, I liked Tabata like three or four years ago, needed some kind of moniker (didn’t think it through all the way, obviously). Better than gogoreyordonez, I suppose.

by gogotabata on Dec 5, 2008 6:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

actually

I would view it in reverse….despite the seeming thickness of your posts, there might be a bulb in that socket after all, if you are in agreement with some of our brighter community members such as GGT.

by siddfynch on Dec 5, 2008 11:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Gogo

can you give us a scouting report on what Ramirez throws, besides the heavy fastball? What’s his velocity, and how are his secondary offerings?

by siddfynch on Dec 5, 2008 11:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

How good would this system look if Bavasi didn't trade for Erik Bedard?

by demondeaconsbaseball on Dec 5, 2008 1:03 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Pretty much the same

Tony Butler and Kam MicKolio would be in the 11-20 range, while Jones & Sherrill would be in the majors. The top 10 would be the same.

The Dodgers won't win a playoff series until the Cool-a-Coo returns.

by mckeeno on Dec 5, 2008 1:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

doh!

I’m dumb. Tillman would make a nice #1.

The Dodgers won't win a playoff series until the Cool-a-Coo returns.

by mckeeno on Dec 5, 2008 1:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I would never put Halman above Saunders

Halman just does not walk enough for me and strikes out way too much as of right now. Saunders K/BB ratio is alot better and he is much closer to the majors than Halman is. Also, Halman’s HR total was somewhat inflated by High Desert, his ISO dropped .100 upon promotion though he still hit did slug well considering age and AA step up.

I also really like the way Tyson Gillies has improved since he first signed. As a Canadian player, he is still very raw but has gotten good reviews from within the organisation. Johan Limonta is a sleeper to watch in the system, he has not failed to hit really at any level with the exception of a poor winter league preformance this year. Being a drafted product from Cuba, I think there is still some potential there and he could really breakout this year. Carlos Peguero is another to watch if he learns to walk.

List wise I agree mostly with the original poster with a few exceptions later on. I would drop Raben and Pineda off the top 10. DeJesus would be 7, Tuiasosopo 8, Martinez 9, and Valbuena 10. Norriega would be next then Raben and Pineda would follow.

by tdot mariner fan on Dec 5, 2008 3:10 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

-1

Halman’s BB/K was a huge problem, but High Desert wasn’t.

Halman’s road stats in the Cali league: .268/.300/.577
Home: .269/.338/.567

Halman walked more at home, but his .ISO was virtually identical on the road (actually, it was 11 points higher .209 to .198).

I rate Halman slightly above Saunders as well. He’s a far superior defender who will stick in center, while Saunders’ abilities are pretty severely taxed up the middle. Saunders is more polished and a better all around player right now, but his tools all rate out at around average, without a single standout tool or skill.

by slamcactus on Dec 5, 2008 3:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Whups..

make that .309 to .298.

Man, Halman’s got crazy power.

by slamcactus on Dec 5, 2008 3:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Halman does have immense power but....

The Cal League in general inflates power numbers. High Desert is not the only hitters park in the league, Lancaster and Stockton are great environments for inflating HR totals looking at Baseball Think Factory 2007 park factors.

I think the power potential Halman has leads others to rate him much higher than I would. He really needs to improve his approach or he will never realise that power potential against better pitching. In the Arizona Fall League he struck out in nearly 50% of his ABs, albeit against strong competition for his age. Right now, his line is not that much different the Michael Hessman’s ignoring age of course. In the AZFL chat, the BA analyst said sometimes he was just straight out fooled by pitches at the plate.

On the other hand, I think Saunders has improved his approach considerably since he started out and if developed correctly can have a yearly output of 20+HRs and 40 2B. He is more limited defensively than Halman, but he can still play a decent CF and is good in the corners. When I watched him play in the Olympics, he really impressed me with what he did.

by tdot mariner fan on Dec 5, 2008 4:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

That's part of the problem.

What would be a decent centerfield in most parks wouldn’t likely cover it in Safeco, but he’d be an awesome asset in the corners.

"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett http://mvn.com/marinersminors/

by JY on Dec 5, 2008 4:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yes...

ally considered top prospects, only Mark Reynolds and Brandon Wood hit for more power in their tours of the Cali league, while guys with monster power like Carlos Quentin, Lars Anderson, and Billy Butler fell way short of Halman’s mark when they played in hitters’ parks in Cali.

Halman has flaws, but his power isn’t in question.

Saunders, on the other hand, isn’t a defensive asset in center and will probably be slightly above average but not a standout in a corner. With that profile, he’ll need to hit a lot more than Halman to have the same value.

by slamcactus on Dec 5, 2008 4:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Internet ate part of my post...

Of players who were considered top prospects…should be the first line.

by slamcactus on Dec 5, 2008 4:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I am really hung up on contact rates preventing him from playing in MLB

Realistically, how many regular position players K in 25% of their plate appearances while walking less than 50 times in 500/600 ABs. It is a small list. There are an increasing number of players that strikeout at high rates in the MLB right now, but there value is questionable.

by tdot mariner fan on Dec 5, 2008 7:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

To be clear...

I agree. Halman has huge holes, and they may prevent him from ever contributing at the major league level. I have some hope that he’ll improve them enough to allow him to become a productive player, though. Remember, he’s still only 21 next year.

My only objection is that you were implying Halman’s power was a Cal league mirage. It wasn’t.

by slamcactus on Dec 5, 2008 8:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

k/bb

Did you even look at michael saunders numbers before posting?

In 2008, saunders walks:strikeouts:at bats was: 39:96:343

NINETY SIX strike outs in THREE HUNDRED AND FORTY THREE AT BATS!

Boy from the the big smoke, saunders is just as big a whiff machine as halman…maybe worse…and if saunders is closer to the majors and has these strike out ratios, is he really a better prospect than halman?

by tuna411 on Dec 6, 2008 12:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

It is a good point

Three counterpoints to that though, first Saunders played at a higher level all season long and was injured for a while. Thrid, Saunders managed to walk more times in about 150 less ABs than Halman while having a slightly lower K% per AB than Halman, 28% versus 29%.

They both need time to improve in the minors but Saunders makes much better contact right now and is improving on his ability to walk. Also, as I mentioned above, scouts really do not like Halman’s pitch recognition right now, AZFL chat said he was outright fooled most of the time.

by tdot mariner fan on Dec 6, 2008 3:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Oh and I was aware of his numbers

Did not realise it was that close but there is reason to be optimistic. Also, I was really impressed by what I saw of him in the Olympics bearing in mind I am not a professional scout of course.

by tdot mariner fan on Dec 6, 2008 3:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Dutch baseball fan rejoice!

It’s great to see my fellow countryman doing this well. Hopefully he’ll make a mark in the big leagues as well.

by JP_Frost on Dec 5, 2008 7:37 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

HONKBAL!

I never get tired of seeing that on the Dutch baseball sites.

"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett http://mvn.com/marinersminors/

by JY on Dec 5, 2008 8:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Alfonso Soriano might represent Halman's upside.

Be encouraged or discouraged by that.. your choice.

USS Mariner: “But the characterization of his pitch recognition as "below average" is in the running for the greatest understatement of all time. The list of good major league hitters who have succeeded with the approach Halman employs at the plate is Alfonso Soriano. There’s no doubt the two have similarities, but Soriano is the success story out of guys with this skillset. Without a pretty significant step forward in his approach at the plate, Juan Encarnacion is a much more likely development path, and it’s not like we can ignore the Reggie Abercrombie-type busts either.”

by JonBBT on Dec 5, 2008 9:58 PM EST reply actions 0 recs