Baseball America's Top 10 A's List
Baseball America released their Top 10 A's Prospects yesterday with interesting results.
Baseball America's Top 10:
1. Brett Anderson, LHP
2. Trevor Cahill, RHP
3. Michel Inoa, RHP
4. Aaron Cunningham, OF
5. Adrian Cardenas, 2B/SS
6. Chris Carter, 1B/3B/OF
7. Gio Gonzalez, LHP
8. Vin Mazzaro, RHP
9. Jemile Weeks, 2B
10. James Simmons, RHP
SBNation has also produced two lists as far as A's Prospects are concerned-the on-going Athletics Nation Community List, and the Top 100 Community List produced here by MinorLeagueBall members. To compare:
MinorLeagueBall's Top A's List (9);
1. Trevor Cahill [8]
2. Brett Anderson [16]
3. Chris Carter [51]
4. Adrian Cardenas [57]
5. Aaron Cunningham [67]
6. Gio Gonzalez [69]
7. Michel Inoa [72]
8. James Simmons [83]
9. Vin Mazzaro [??]
Athletics Nation Community List;
1. Trevor Cahill, RHP
2. Brett Anderson, LHP
3. Chris Carter, 3B/1B
4. Aaron Cunningham, CF
5. Gio Gonzalez, LHP
6. Adrian Cardenas, SS/2B
7. Sean Doolittle, 1B/RF
8. James Simmons, RHP
9. Vin Mazzaro, RHP
10. Josh Donaldson, C
I think one thing that is obvious here is that each group has their own grading system that has produced different results. For example, while Baseball America rates Michel Inoa the A's #3 Prospect, mLB rates Inoa bullishly at #7, and Athletics Nation does not rank Inoa in their top 10 at all (#11). Likewise, AN's list contains two payers that are not even in the previous two's list (Sean Doolittle and Josh Donaldson) and leaves out Baseball America's #9 Jemile Weeks.
So which group's list should we take with being the "correct" list, or "more correct". What can we take from looking at these three lists, with two more still to come (Sickle's and Goldstein). Further, what do these three lists show about how each group measures talent and what they deem more important aspects of a players profile?
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They certainly show that fans (who tend to be a more sabermetric bent anyways) love Chris Carter and, to a lesser extent, Sean Doolittle a bit too much for their own good . . .
Carter is just incredibly overrated to me. A one tool player who hit for big power in the Cal League at age 21 and lacking any defensive value. He might yet have a career and a solid one at that, but I just don’t see the premium value here at all.
by mrkupe on
Dec 4, 2008 8:07 PM EST
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+1 to an extent
Is none of the above an option? If I had to chose I guss BA but I don’t really like any of them a whole lot…of course that is just my own personal opinion. :/
by jfish26101 on
Dec 4, 2008 8:11 PM EST
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Which one do you like then?
I picked BA over the fan voting too. BA is the only one that’s based on information that the public doesn’t have.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on
Dec 4, 2008 11:39 PM EST
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What kind of information might this be?
by thejd44 on
Dec 5, 2008 1:40 AM EST
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Interviews with scouts, managers and coaches
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on
Dec 5, 2008 9:26 PM EST
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I'll take a DH with 35+ HR potential.
“Carter is just incredibly overrated to me. A one tool player who hit for big power in the Cal League at age 21”
Hes hit for power everywhere hes been.
"With 16-year-old Dominican righty Michel Inoa in tow, Gio Gonzalez improving at Triple-A and lefty Brett Anderson carving up Double-Abatters along with Simmons and Trevor Cahill, Oakland’s pitching depthis officially the envy of baseball." - BaseballAmerica.com
by Syphon on
Dec 4, 2008 10:00 PM EST
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I think most people agree on what Carter is, although maybe not how valuable that is.
It’s Cardenas that people don’t know whether he’s a 2B or 3B, and whether he’s going to slug .380 or .480
Cunningham’s a bit more agreed-upon offensively, but I’ve heard him as a possible CF and my eyes told me he was terrible defensively in his callup.
And of course no one has any idea about Inoa other than the 20 scouts and team officials who’ve seen him work out. in addition to his immediate family and sandlot friends.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on
Dec 4, 2008 11:44 PM EST
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I still say
That Carter is Pat Burrell possibly with even more power, possibly at his peak reaching Burrell’s ’05 season (though he probably wont come close to matching his .390 OBP in that season).
Never, Never, NEVER give up
by hero66 on
Dec 5, 2008 12:44 AM EST
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Worse contact skills
but more raw power.
I really think Carter’s best comp is Chris Davis from Texas. Both flirted with 1B/3B/LF with questionable defense, lots of Ks, shaky contact skills, high BB rate.
by alskor on
Dec 5, 2008 1:49 AM EST
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I dont see....
how Carter has worse contact skills than Burrell. Burrell is a career .257 hitter. I think Carter is at least a .270 hitter, his BABIP was incredibly low this year, and it shows when you look at his BA from previous years and compare them to this last year.
Never, Never, NEVER give up
by hero66 on
Dec 5, 2008 8:37 PM EST
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+1
Carter is very overrated. I think the last list would be the best if Carter moved down to sixth. Also, Jemile Weeks and Inoa should probably be on there instead of Donaldson. My list would be like this:
1. Cahill
2. Anderson
3. Cunningham
4. Cardenas
5. Gonzalez
6. Carter
7. Inoa
8. Simmons
9. Mazzaro
10. Weeks
by joegonzo on
Dec 4, 2008 8:13 PM EST
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Mine:
1. Cahill
2. Anderson
3. Cunningham
4. Cardenas
5. Carter
6. Inoa
7. Gonzalez
8.Mazzaro
9. Weeks
10. Simmons
by METSMETSMETS on
Dec 4, 2008 8:33 PM EST
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I love the Athletics Nation list
Carter is awesome. Cahill should be on top.
Id move Simmons above Cardenas and Mazzaro above Doolittle, but otherwise damn good list!
by alskor on
Dec 4, 2008 9:08 PM EST
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Though
I would have Inoa in my top 10. Drop Donaldson. Not sure where Id slot him. Maybe:
1. Trevor Cahill, RHP
2. Brett Anderson, LHP
3. Chris Carter, 3B/1B
4. Aaron Cunningham, CF
5. James Simmons, RHP
6. Gio Gonzalez, LHP
7. Michael Inoa
8. Vin Mazzaro, RHP
9. Sean Doolittle, 1B/RF
10. Adrian Cardenas, SS/2B
by alskor on
Dec 4, 2008 9:10 PM EST
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Given that both Mazzaro and Doolittle have only had one good season each,
doesn’t it make more sense to put the one with the Justin Morneau upside over the one with the Joe Blanton upside? (If you want to get technical— yeah, his batting average is likely to be lower than Morneau’s because he strikes out more. But Morneau is a crappy fielder and Doolittle is a very good one, so I figure it evens out.) I mean, I like Blanton as much as the next guy, but…
Doolittle’s power isn’t some Cal League fluke. He was skinny in college so that he could maintain his pitching mechanics. Now that he’s hitting full time, he’s filling out his frame. He should be #4 in the system behind Anderson, Cahill and Cunningham, IMO.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
Dec 4, 2008 9:30 PM EST
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Doolittle seems somewhat like Corey Brown in that his offense is limited by his K's.
I’d like to see a bat like Brett Wallace at 1B, even without the defense. Doolittle’s offense would be very interesting at a different position, but there are a lot of 1B with very good, lower risk bats. The Top 100 we’re doing here is full of them.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on
Dec 4, 2008 11:50 PM EST
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I do like Doolittle
Its really a testament to their system that he and Cardenas would be that low on my list.
Ive been swayed on Mazzaro and I like Inoa a ton. Realistically, 7-10 on my list is a tie. I wouldnt quibble with it any way you shuffled them.
1B/corner OF prospects always do get a hefty discount in my book, though. I think theyre typically overvalued. I understand Doolittle’s defense is supposed to be good… but he’s still a 1B. To tell you the truth, Im also not 100% sold on his power yet. Plus, I dont like the idea of him standing in the way of Carter – love that guy.
by alskor on
Dec 5, 2008 12:25 AM EST
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I'm not sure why people have such a hard time with the concept that a 1B who's 10 runs above average defensively
is as valuable, or near to it (depends slightly on the positional adjustment), with the glove as a shortstop who’s 10 runs below average.
Playing important positions badly is not more valuable than playing unimportant positions well. This is why the A’s field good defenses— they don’t just throw every corner player in a pile and say “aw, hell, they’re just corner players anyway” and then hand frigging Jorge Cantu a glove.
Sorry, I’m not really trying to hammer you specifically. I just see this so often, and it irks me.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
Dec 5, 2008 1:22 AM EST
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In theory, though, it really shouldnt be hard to find a guy who can play +10 runs defensively at 1B. If Doolittle turns out to be below average at 1B offensively (I think he’s probably a bit better at peak , but for the sake of argument – and remember league average at 1B is a pretty high standard of slash stats) and also turns out to be only “good” defensively (say +5) than what is he? A pretty run of the mill 1B. That’s why it takes a pretty exciting bat to get me worked up about a 1B prospect…
That’s really the issue. Im pretty sure Doolittle will be a decent/helpful major leaguer – I just dont think his ceiling extends much beyond that. He’s not going to be a Doug Mientflkjfeagdajjdavic defender at 1B – as far as I know. Do we see him going higher than 10 DRS regularly? That’s a pretty tall order. So he cant grow his value that way. As for his bat, how high is the ceiling there? Now there is really where he can surprise everyone… but its so very hard to be an above average bat at 1B. Im not entirely sold on his bat – maybe Im just still dwelling his post draft reports – so to me his ceiling is kind of limited. I have an easier time buying into the ceiling of those other guys… I think they have a better chance to be an above average player at their position…
…but again… just splitting hairs. If you asked me to make this list again next week 5-10 would probably be in a different order. Theyre all good.
by alskor on
Dec 5, 2008 1:47 AM EST
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Hmmmm?
“In theory, though, it really shouldnt be hard to find a guy who can play +10 runs defensively at 1B.” If we assume that 0 runs defensively is the average major league 1B, then shouldn’t it be quite difficult to find somebody who can both hit at that level, and field 10 runs better?
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by OldProspects on
Dec 5, 2008 10:14 AM EST
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No...
that would be among 1B. Im looking at the total pool of MLB players.
In theory you could shift lots of other guys over from other positions and many of them would be able to play +10 defense at 1B. Which is significant. Its not like you could shift many 1B over to CF or SS and expect +anything defense.
Of course, its only a consideration if you dont care much about the bat. Still, there are lots of corner OFers and 3B who could go to 1B, play good defense and put up around/right below league average offense.
So, Doolittle’s bat will determine how far he goes. His glove is nice, but his ceiling is all about his bat. Lets look at the top 1B in the AL this season. Lets say Doolittle had been ready for MLB in 2008, where would you project him to rank:
by EqA:
Teixeira .360
Youkilis .313
Morneau .308
Pena .306
Giambi .301
Cabrera .298
Overbay .276
Konerko .272
Garko .269
Swisher .260
Millar .255
Like I said… it is very, very hard to be even league average among the starters at 1B. Consequently, its very hard for me to get excited about a guy who in any given year will have a ceiling of around 7th best 1B in his own league…
by alskor on
Dec 5, 2008 2:00 PM EST
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Well, for starters, you're missing 3 guys off that list
Teams with shitty 1B won’t qualify their players for the batting title, because they’re shitty.
Second, I see a reasonable upside comp (not his absolute ceiling, but something that assumes he develops well) as something like .280/.360/.520. The reports I’ve read are that he IS Mientkiewicz/Pujols good at first base, very much a gold glove candidate— again, a “reasonable upside” seems like 10 runs over average. His EqA with the line above would be about .300, and he’d have a major edge on defense over the four guys in his immediate vicinity on the above list, certainly more than enough to put him well ahead of them in value.
The point OP was making, which you basically blew off, is that most of the guys who “could shift over to 1B and be +10” either patently lack the hitting skills for 1B (Darin Erstad), or are more valuable at their current position (Chase Utley).
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
Dec 5, 2008 5:32 PM EST
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You think Doolittle can slug .520 in the majors?
I’m assuming that’s at a neutral park not Oakland…but still it seems like a stretch.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on
Dec 5, 2008 9:30 PM EST
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reasonable upside
of course, i’m not sure what reasonable upside actually means in terms of probability…
A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05
by xbhaskarx on
Dec 5, 2008 9:33 PM EST
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Sure, neutral park
Otherwise you’d have to bump the EqA higher.
Let’s say, 650 PA. .280 average gives 182 total bases. 30 HR adds another 90. 50 more bases from doubles and triples makes 322. So maybe more like .500 slugging. That costs him ~3 runs off his hitting line… doesn’t materially change things, but I guess this was an exercise worth doing for the sake of accuracy.
And yes, I think he’s got 30 HR power. He’s already done it in the minors this year, and his frame has room to easily carry 20 or 30 more pounds of muscle when he’s in his physical prime.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
Dec 6, 2008 2:24 AM EST
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Wow
You’re incredibly low on Cardenas.
Never, Never, NEVER give up
by hero66 on
Dec 4, 2008 9:22 PM EST
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re: low on Cardenas
In my own rudimentary studies of why position prospects bust despite hype, the most common factor has been a xbh:ab of worse than 1:10. Cardenas last year was about 1:15 and is 1:13 over his career. The difference in future success between 1:9 and 1:10 guys is huge. So imagine how dim Cardenas looks at 1:15. It’s not like he’s hitting .330
I know stats aren’t the whole story, but I don’t see anything in Cardenas at all.
by blee1134 on
Dec 4, 2008 10:26 PM EST
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I think his value is seen in his OBP.
As well as hitting for a good average. Im not too worried about his power. If he can hit the gaps and run into a HR occasionally, while hitting 290 with a 370 OBP Im happy.
"With 16-year-old Dominican righty Michel Inoa in tow, Gio Gonzalez improving at Triple-A and lefty Brett Anderson carving up Double-Abatters along with Simmons and Trevor Cahill, Oakland’s pitching depthis officially the envy of baseball." - BaseballAmerica.com
by Syphon on
Dec 4, 2008 10:36 PM EST
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Yeah.
I think he can be a .290/.380/.430 player, and that’s pretty good.
Never, Never, NEVER give up
by hero66 on
Dec 4, 2008 10:44 PM EST
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It's good for 2B. It's merely OK for 3B unless he's Brooks Robinson or something.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on
Dec 4, 2008 11:51 PM EST
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That was my rationale
Ive heard enough about him not being able to play the middle infield spots that I have to discount him. He doesnt have a corner bat. If he cant stay at 2B he’s a real tweener.
by alskor on
Dec 5, 2008 12:20 AM EST
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Um, that batting line would put him about 15 runs above average at third base
Brooks can go back to knitting; if he’s even league-average with the glove that’s a good player.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
Dec 5, 2008 1:23 AM EST
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Inoa
I believe in this kid tremendously, so the list with him the highest is the best IMO.
The Dodgers won't win a playoff series until the Cool-a-Coo returns.
by mckeeno on
Dec 4, 2008 9:22 PM EST
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This is what my list would be
1. Michel Inoa, RHP
2. Trevor Cahill, RHP
3. Brett Anderson, LHP
4. Adrian Cardenas, 2B
5. Aaron Cunningham, OF
6. Vin Mazzaro, RHP
7. Gio Gonzalez, LHP
8. Chris Carter, DH
9. James Simmons, RHP
10. Jemile Weeks, 2b
The Dodgers won't win a playoff series until the Cool-a-Coo returns.
by mckeeno on
Dec 4, 2008 9:26 PM EST
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Wow...
And I thought BA was already asinine enough by ranking Inoa #3 over Cunningham and Carter…
"We were s--, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on
Dec 4, 2008 10:35 PM EST
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I respect your balls, especially when it's unlikely you've ever seen Inoa pitch.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on
Dec 4, 2008 11:52 PM EST
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As I said over on AN
There’s like 4 people on the planet who have seen him pitch. I’m not saying he won’t be good, but I need to see something that results from pitching in an actual GAME before I start ranking him ahead of a lot of the guys in the A’s farm system.
by thejd44 on
Dec 5, 2008 1:46 AM EST
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And those 4 people thought he was good enough to invest well over 4 million dollars in him.
He’s obviously absurdly talented. Will he make it? Obviously no one knows and I wouldn’t rank him first, but his scouting report and his ceiling make it very easy to rank him in the Top-3 of the A’s prospects. You don’t find many people with his size, arm strength and athleticism. Now everything is contingent on how his off-speed stuff develops and obviously health, but everything is in place for him to succeed.
Tools Whore
Sign Bonds!
by Tyler on
Dec 5, 2008 6:21 AM EST
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That's overstating it
but I think Inoa belongs in the top 5 easily.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
by t ball on
Dec 4, 2008 9:52 PM EST
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it's really your preference
I think the fact that all the lists have the main names at least shows that most people know who the best prospects are. They are all very good and after Anderson and Cahill I think you could almost make a case for almost any of the next 10 guys to fill the next 10 spots in some order. Do you like ceiling? Go with Inoa high. Do you like power numbers despite maybe a few too many Ks? Put Carter and Doolittle in there. Do you like mature pitching that looks like it may never be top of the line, but should be a safe bet as a back end starter or mlb regular reliever? Gio, Simmons and Mazzaro have that. How much do you listen to all the 4th outfielder and tweener talk about Cunningham despite the fact that he just shrugs that off every season and keeps producing like he could be an impact bat? I personally don’t think Doolittle should be on a list, and definitely not Donaldson, I like the BA 10 with Inoa a little lower. I think that the two left off, FDLS, Brett Hunter and Corey Brown could round out a nice top 15 in whatever order you so choose.
by IHateMitchMustain on
Dec 4, 2008 9:52 PM EST
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AN's Community List is 16 deep thus far, with #17 being voted on now
AthleticsNation Top Prospect List:
1. Trevor Cahill, RHP
2. Brett Anderson, LHP
3. Chris Carter, 3B/1B
4. Aaron Cunningham, CF
5. Gio Gonzalez, LHP
6. Adrian Cardenas, SS/2B
7. Sean Doolittle, 1B/RF
8. James Simmons, RHP
9. Vin Mazzaro, RHP
10. Josh Donaldson, C
11. Michel Inoa, RHP
12. Jemile Weeks, 2B
13. Henry Rodriguez, RHP
14. Rashun Dixon, CF
15. Fautino De Los Santos, RHP
16. Arnold Leon, RHP
facepalm.jpg
by Zonis on
Dec 4, 2008 9:58 PM EST
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Oh man
HRod… how many top ten lists for other teams would he be on?
by alskor on
Dec 5, 2008 12:26 AM EST
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He was on my A's Top 10 List, but then I'm not a big Doolittle, Donaldson or Simmons guy
I would have had Weeks and Inoa as well.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on
Dec 5, 2008 12:32 AM EST
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Seeing BAs list without Donaldson and Doolittle
it really speaks to the depths of the system. I love Hunter and Dixon from the 08 draft. FDLS could still be a great prospect.
Brett Hunters HWL Stats:
9 2/3IP 4H 6BB 18Ks
I see him making the A’s top 10 next year.
"With 16-year-old Dominican righty Michel Inoa in tow, Gio Gonzalez improving at Triple-A and lefty Brett Anderson carving up Double-Abatters along with Simmons and Trevor Cahill, Oakland’s pitching depthis officially the envy of baseball." - BaseballAmerica.com
by Syphon on
Dec 4, 2008 10:05 PM EST
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Is he going to be put in the bullpen?
TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems
by OldProspects on
Dec 4, 2008 11:04 PM EST
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I don't think they'd put Hunter in the pen
He’ll go to the rotation, along with Tyson Ross.
The real question is are they going to fix their mechanics.
facepalm.jpg
by Zonis on
Dec 4, 2008 11:30 PM EST
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I doubt they'll put him in the pen immediately (maybe until he builds stamina) but he may
end up there if his injury risk is really as bad as his video makes it seem.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on
Dec 4, 2008 11:54 PM EST
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injury risk...
to the batter?
facepalm.jpg
by Zonis on
Dec 5, 2008 12:28 AM EST
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(chuckles)
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on
Dec 5, 2008 12:33 AM EST
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No point
The A’s already have 2974230897 bullpen prospects.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
Dec 5, 2008 1:27 AM EST
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You can never have enough pitching
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on
Dec 5, 2008 9:43 PM EST
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you can never have enough Starting Pitching
20 Relievers doesn’t start you a game.
facepalm.jpg
by Zonis on
Dec 6, 2008 3:41 AM EST
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My A's top ten
1. Cahill
2. Anderson
3. Gonzalez
4. Cardenas
5. Carter
6. Cunningham
7. Simmons
8. Inoa
9. Doolittle
10. Mazzaro
Just missed:
Rodriguez, Brown, Weeks, Hunter, Donaldson
by DeJay on
Dec 5, 2008 9:09 AM EST
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Inoa
He is 16 years old for christs sake. Get him off these lists. He’s going to be in the Dominican league for at least two years, then I doubt that he will get two high A ball for two years after that. It too early to hype this kid up ( and I do mean kid).
by CoolCat23 on
Dec 5, 2008 9:38 AM EST
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Would be surprised
If the A’s were willing to give him that much money – and given the fact that Inoa chose to sign with them over other teams – I’d be willing to guess that they have proposed a much faster track than what you’re suggesting. My guess:
Age 16 – Dominican League or Rookie League
Age 17 – Short-season ball
Age 18 – Kane County
They think he’s a Felix Hernandez type of talent, and Felix moved even faster than that. Age 17 in short-season/Low A, age 18 in High A/AA, age 19 in AAA/majors.
by mrkupe on
Dec 5, 2008 10:03 AM EST
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Agreed on the "Felix path"
Assuming Inoa shows he can handle the early stops, he’ll probably be playing full season ball when he’s 18.
by jibs on
Dec 5, 2008 10:30 AM EST
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he'll be 17 1/2 at the start of the season
people seem to have this “16” stuck in their heads just cause he signed this summer, but he’s quite a bit older
expect him in short season ball in ‘08 – Vancouver (NWL) likely, but maybe Arizona (AZL)………not a chance he’ll be in the dominican
if he gets in a full workload in ‘08 he’ll start ’09 with Kane County (MWL)……..he could move very fast from there
by Wheelhouse on
Dec 8, 2008 11:02 AM EST
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No
Theyre not gonna pay him 4 million to pitch in the domincan for two years. I think its a safe bet to assume he starts in rookie ball, the only question mark is we havent seen oakland develop these young 16 year olds so thats the question mark. But i would guess Rookie Ball is where he starts.
by FishHead on
Dec 5, 2008 2:30 PM EST
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Did we
really need to post this list twice?
http://www.minorleagueball.com/2008/12/3/678583/ba-a-s-top-10
by slurve on
Dec 5, 2008 11:20 AM EST
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I think this thread is just poorly titled
It is more about the the comparison of different rankings than BA’s list.
Still a little redundant though.
by aCone419 on
Dec 5, 2008 11:42 AM EST
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