Toronto Blue Jays Prospect Discussion
I'm hard at work on the Cincinnati Reds now. The next team is the Toronto Blue Jays, so use this thread to discuss their organization.
I just finished off some magazine obligations and am focused on the book for the rest of the month, so expect more posting of organization lists soon. Of course every time I say that something happens, but hey, you gotta keep plugging away.
So, what do you like in the Jays system? Snider is a stud of course, and I like what Cecil and Cooper have done. After that it thins out on first glance.
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John Tolisano
He disappointed me this year.
by aCone419 on
Dec 4, 2008 5:17 PM EST
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Justin Jackson
True shortstop with interesting secondary skills. If they don’t push him too hard I think he could make for a very intriguing player.
by mrkupe on
Dec 4, 2008 5:23 PM EST
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Emaus
Being a tulane grad, I have a certain affectation towards him, but I really think he could be a solid starter at 2B with good doubles power and slightly above average defense.
by thudean on
Dec 4, 2008 5:31 PM EST
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+1
John Manuel gave him a Ty Wigginton comp, but I think he sticks at 2b, and if he develops a bit more power 15-20 HRs at 2b is awesome.
by matts89 on
Dec 4, 2008 7:36 PM EST
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Emaus at 3B?
Thing is – the Jays are set at 2B and are looking at having to fill 3B after Rolen leaves in 2 years. Aherns won’t be ready by then (unless he really catches fire) and Emaus might be the best internal option for the job.
by WillRain1 on
Dec 5, 2008 11:06 PM EST
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very true
that Emaus’ first taste of the bigs might be at third base, due to the team’s situation. It remains to be seen whether he will stay at second long-term – he had a very good defensive season this year (was voted the best defensive second baseman in his league) but he is a big fella.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
by hugo on
Dec 6, 2008 9:57 AM EST
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I'm also a Tulane grad
and love Emaus
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
by hugo on
Dec 5, 2008 1:56 PM EST
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Not a lot of huge star power beyond the top 4 or 5
But I think they’ve got a few guys that don’t stand out as great prospects that stand to be pretty useful major league players. Brad Emaus and Scott Campbell both look like they might hit enough to be big league 2nd basemen, or at least useful utility guys. I also am fairly bullish on Mills, Romero, and Robert Ray’s chances of being decent back of the rotation or bullpen arms.
But yeah, their offensive prospects at Lansing really collectively crapped the bed this year (at least statistically): Eiland, Aherns, Justin Jackson, Yohermyn Chavez, and John Tolisano were a pretty rough bunch. They’re all young though, and the MWL is no picnic, so no need to panic yet.
I also fully stand behind a Brian Dopirak revival movement.
by jibs on
Dec 4, 2008 5:40 PM EST
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+1
+1 on those young kids at Lansing. Action Jackson’s numbers weren’t awful when you consider his glove but they were collectively terrible.
Also Balbino decided to wait until halfway through his second short season to start hitting, but ended up putting up pretty good numbers, albeit with less than thrilling plate discipline.
They’re gonna graduate the top 2 this year, but it looks like the list could actually be better next year if some of those young kids develop some skills, and Cooper looks like Lind 2.0 with some defensive value at 1B, in the good-prospecty sense.
Rios is the next Juan Gonzales, thats right, I said it.
by KaoticKlown on
Dec 4, 2008 6:37 PM EST
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Lansing
I agree (though I can’t buy into the Dopirak movement … sorry .. lol)
This system is a mix of 3 distinct groups right now, the guys who are the absolute upper tier who are performing and have high ceilings (Snider, Cecil, Cooper and Arencibia), the next group which is guys with similar ceiling who are extremely young and haven’t really stepped it up (Jackson, Ahrens, Eiland, Tolisano) and some older guys who are either late bloomers, beating up on younger competition or just playing above their heads a bit (Emaus, Campbell, Mills, Luis Perez, Rzepczynski).
I guess, and I’m sort of doing this off the top of my head, I’d rank it:
Snider A-/B+ I’m a little concerned w/ k’s
Cecil A-/B+ before the critics yell and scream .. compare his stats (in particular BB, k, GB%) to other top pitching prospects at AA last year … any of them, Price, Kershaw, Anderson, Cahill, Hanson, Tillman. Statistically its hard to argue he’s far behind that group.
space
Arencibia B K:BB ratio is a concern, but at this point you can safely say he’ll stick at C and hit HRs
Cooper B/B- Need to see more.
Jackson B-
Mills B-
The rest probably get C+’s. I’m big on the upside of guys like Ahrens and Eiland, but you also have to perform. Emaus maybe has a shot at B-, but glove is supposed to be just okay and it was only high-A.
by jayjay on
Dec 4, 2008 8:47 PM EST
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+1
Couldn’t agree more,with the exception of your Cecil comparisons. With the exception of Price most of those guys are younger than Cecil and more or at least as advanced as him. Still like him, but I think he is still a step behind them.
Touch em all Joe...
by FisherCat on
Dec 4, 2008 9:27 PM EST
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Right ..
Well most of them are high school guys, its the same thing with Price. You can’t say college guy and HS guy should be on exactly the same track b/c Cecil just flat out didn’t have the chance to prove himself at AA when he was 20. I’m just using the top pitching prospects in baseball. You can probably go up a level or down a level or two, and the comparison still holds up pretty well. Cecil may not be the best pitching prospect in the minors, and he may not even be top 5. But when people talk about that elite crop of guys, you hear names like Kershaw, Price, Feliz, Anderson, Cahill, Hanson, Scherzer, Tillman, Porcello … but you never hear Cecil. I think he’s in that mix.
by jayjay on
Dec 4, 2008 9:56 PM EST
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Well
Tillman and Hanson both just got a B+.
So even if Cecil is as good as those two (which I don’t think is the case), he’s not an A-..
I do think Cecil compares favorably to some other guys who John just gave a B+ to like Hellickson, Davis, Arrieta, Parker, Zimmerman, and Bowden.
by dkdc on
Dec 4, 2008 10:30 PM EST
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Agreed
That’s kind of why I put A-/B+ … John doesn’t give out many A’s, and even less to pitchers. Its very rare. By his standard, Cecil is probably a B+ (though I could see him giving him a B). But that’s sort of the issue with letter grades now isn’t it.
by jayjay on
Dec 4, 2008 10:35 PM EST
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I'm also curious about LHP Luis Perez
He was dominant in the MWL this year (but as a 23 year old), and the Jays just added him to their 40 man roster. I can’t find any scouting info on him though.
by jibs on
Dec 4, 2008 5:47 PM EST
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Brian Jeroloman
I absolutely love him. Great eye at all levels. Good enough hitter to carve out a career? How is his defense? Could be a useful player!
by benzalman on
Dec 4, 2008 5:57 PM EST
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gold glove
Jeroloman has been praised as having defense that would be above average for a major leaguer for 2 years or more now. I’m not an expert on every catcher in the major but it would shock me if he wasn’t at least on the very short list to talk about when you discuss the best defenders in the minors. Even if he never hits more than, for instance, Schneider…he can have a long career just on his glove.
by WillRain1 on
Dec 5, 2008 11:15 PM EST
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his skills
sure line up nicely against Arencibia’s – he supplies the defensive excellence and the patience, while Arencibia supplies the power and stick. And they hit from opposite sides of the plate, which is even nicer. That could be a very high-production, low-cost catching tandem for the Jays for a long time
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
by hugo on
Dec 6, 2008 9:59 AM EST
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Brad Mills
Interested where you put him…dominating numbers but not by any means dominating stuff.
by matts89 on
Dec 4, 2008 7:38 PM EST
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Mills is interesting
and may very well get his chance to prove himself in the majors in 2009. Anyone with his stuff will have to continually prove himself at every level, but he has had a great deal of success at each level so it will be interesting to see if he can translate it to the majors. It would not surprise me to see him put together a nice successful career as a back-end starter
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
by hugo on
Dec 5, 2008 8:53 PM EST
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Mills = Marcum
Wasn’t Shaun Marcum viewed much the same on the way up? Good pitcher, less than overwhelming stuff. But great results.
by ofsticksandbats on
Dec 5, 2008 10:56 PM EST
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True
Or, if one wants a lefty-lefty comparison, i wonder if Mills might not be the long-awaited heir to the mantle of Jimmy Key? Similar build and similar track…but Key never had that kind of K rate in the majors.
by WillRain1 on
Dec 5, 2008 11:22 PM EST
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Well, that’s the problem with using comparisons is that you always seem to be predicting a similar level of success, when there are too many other factors which could affect how a guy turns out. My thinking is not so much to say “will he win like key did?” so much as to say “How does their skill set compare?”
I confess that I was too casual a fan during Key’s best days to really pay attention to things like what his best pitch was or how good his “stuff” was – I just knew he got results.
by WillRain1 on
Dec 6, 2008 3:34 PM EST
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Well ...
Good comp in some ways. But remember that one of the main reasons people doubted Marcum was he was a closer (and fielder … SS I think) in college. So he turned pro as sort of a 2-pitch guy, with great control and the potential to expand his arsenal. In other words,raw. Now he still has his issues (HR still a problem), but he’s a strike thrower and he’s really worked on his secondary stuff over the years.
Mills is quite the opposite. 4 years in college, plenty of innings under his belt as a starter. But that also means that at 23 he was a little old and experienced for low-A, where he spent much of his 2008 season. We can’t on one hand say that Lansing’s teens shouldn’t be criticized too much for their struggles b/c of their age and at the same time not note that Mills was one of the more polished arms in the league, facing a lot of raw hitters. So much of his doubts surround level of competition as a pro to date. Yes, he was fine as he moved up, but the sample size isn’t much. So far though, he looks at least (very least) good enough to be a solid RP prospect (LH, gets K’s).
But to be honest I want to see 100 or so innings under his belt at AA/AAA before really making a call on him.
by jayjay on
Dec 5, 2008 11:42 PM EST
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reidier gonzalez is an interesting name
he’s got a great GB rate, plus he doesn’t walk a lot of hitters. not much else there, but many pitchers have made a career with fewer skills than that.
When they should be sacrifice bunting, they are buying effeminate designer jeans. When they should be fouling off pitches, they are masturbating. Always, they are masturbating.
by variablesdont on
Dec 4, 2008 7:45 PM EST
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Eiland better hope he's the next Daryl Jones
or he will be out of baseball soon.
by Bravesin07 on
Dec 4, 2008 8:40 PM EST
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David Purcey
He threw 65 innings last year in 12 starts for the Jays so I don’t think he’ll be on John’s list, but I was wondering what grade you guys would give him. He was a solid prospect a few years ago, got hurt (IIRC) and came back strong this year.
AAA – 9 K/9, 2.55 bb/9, 97 hits in 120 IP, 8 HR
I saw him pitch vs. Boston and he was pretty impressive looking.
John’s past grades of Purcey:
08 – C
07 – C+
06 – B+
05 – B+
John gave him a C last year, but he looks better than that. Is he back? I was wondering what grade you guys would give him this year since I don’t think he’ll be on John’s list.
by The Colonel on
Dec 4, 2008 8:58 PM EST
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list
1. Snider A- (or B+, looks like Dunn with better average, not as many walks, better defense and AVG, so can he really be like Dunn)
2. Cecil B (maybe B+, if he starts well in AAA this year, still think he’ll be a really good #3 guy)
3. Cooper B (3 minor league levels in rookie year, I think he’ll be Overbay 2.0, with a bit more power, maybe not as many walks)
4. Arencibia B- (strikeout totals hurt, can’t deny the power, even if he has a horrible OBP, could be very usefull if he sticks behind the plate)
5. Brad Mills B- (3rd most strikeouts among southpaws in minors last year, i like him)
6. Kevin Ahrens C+ (don’t know where to put him, haven’t heard enough about his raw skills, but high draft pick, so i’ll put him here)
7. Mark Rzepczynski C+ (could be B-, see what he does at higher levels next year, but looks good)
8. Brian Dopirak C+ (great year, but old, lets see if he can keep it up)
9. Justin Jackson C+ (raw skills, need to see it come together in high A)
10. Scott Campbell C+ (total lack of power, really fizzled at end of year, haven’t heard much about his defense, if he can hold his own at 2B, could be nice to have that kind of OBP in the 1 or 2 hole)
11. Brian Jerolamen C+ (can’t deny the OBP, but can’t hit for power worth a damn, could be a useful backup for Arencibia, perhaps the Jays should look into gene splicing and combine Jerolamen and Arencibia, that would fix a lot of their problems)
12. Ricky Romero C+ (finally made some headway last year, but his peripherals were not very good, hopefully he could find his nich, could be a back of the rotation guy)
After this it gets murkey for me, I’d add Ginley in there, but he ran into a wall last year after a great start, I’d add Emaus, Eiland, Chavez, Ray, Perez.
by daman316 on
Dec 4, 2008 9:41 PM EST
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Jackson
Jackson’s glove alone puts him ahead of 3 or 4 of those guys. His glove is exceptional. He also knows how to take walks. If he can just cut his K’s and add a little more power (which should come with age … not saying he’s going to be a power hitter, but just a bit more) he’s going to be a good one.
by jayjay on
Dec 4, 2008 9:59 PM EST
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My thoughts
Snider A- (his defense is better than most give him credit for, only issue will be the strikeouts)
Cecil B+ (great stats, has yet to log a tone of innings as he was getting eased into to starting)
Arencibia B+ (Defense vastly improved and plus power
David Cooper B (looks like he will hit for average and power..how much power?)
Justin Jackson B (good glove think he will break out with the stick next year)
Scott Campbell B- (hitting 340 with an OBP over 400 most of the year until he was injured..late bloomer
Brad Mills B- (Jays pitching prospects have flown under the radar…Marcum, Litsch, Mills next)
Mark Rzepcynski B-(good numbers in low A, suprised he didn’t get a midseason jump to high A)
Brad Emaus C+ (good solid bat for a 2B , raked in Hawaii)
Kevin Ahrens C+ (Can only ride the scouting/1st rounder thing so long..make or break year coming up)
Dopirak belongs no where near the top 20, hes not much of a prospect. Jeroloman doesn’t do much for me, his upside would be Mike Matheny at best and although thats valuable its not really much to get excited about cause there are those players availble on the waiver wire every year.
Next year will be very telling for Ahrens, Tolisano, Eiland and Chavez.
I liked the looks of markus brisker and Tyler Pastronicky in Rookie ball….the jays definitely have more sleepers in the system in years past when it wasfull of college seniors sleeping.
by JJACK on
Dec 4, 2008 10:29 PM EST
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sleepers
Pastornicky is definitely one to watch. Sobolewski was called a steal and a lot of people liked the choice of Eric Thames (but he got no pro-ABs because of injury. Several guys who could be good but who won’t show up much on this list because there’s so little pro-basis for evaluation.
by WillRain1 on
Dec 5, 2008 11:28 PM EST
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yes
Pastornicky and Sobolewski could be pushing Jackson and Ahrens before too long, but Soba may take a little longer – both look like great picks by the Jays
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
by hugo on
Dec 6, 2008 10:01 AM EST
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Easily my favorite Jays prospect
Tim Collins
by OccamsRazor on
Dec 4, 2008 11:38 PM EST
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J.P.
I think the most interesting prospect, and the one I’m most curious about has to be Arencebia.
Like it was mentioned above, a clone of him and Brian Jeroleman would be great, but unfortunately is unlikely to happen. It’s almost a perfect study in what will happen however, to a prospect who just never walks but does a lot else right. Because he’s a catcher, he’ll get to play in the bigs wether he’s great shakes or not, so we’ll get a little insight. Obviously with his power will mean he gets lots of pitches out of the zone, it’ll be neat to see if as he grows he can convert those to walks or not.
Go Jays
by providence bruins on
Dec 5, 2008 9:00 AM EST
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Actually
Hopefully he can be a little more patience. Its funny b/c he didn’t show this kind of approach in college. His last year in college he walked 33 times to 38 K’s (52 games). He now has only 32 walks in the pros, but thats in 189 games. His college numbers do give me some hope, but who knows.
As a Jays fan, you can’t help but think of Josh Phelps when you see J.P. At the same age, between the same 2 levels they put up similar #‘s. Phelps always walked more, but he also struck out more. The huge difference is that Phelps didn’t have much chance to stick at catcher, Arencibia does. There’s a big difference in the O you look for out of your 1bman/DH and your catcher.
Thats why I think J.P. is a solid B prospect right now. Even if he stays a free swinger, he should hit enough to be a starting catcher in the majors (that’s not saying much). And if he adjusts his approach and takes some more walks (doesn’t have to be an OBP machine mind you), he could be a tremendous asset for the Jays.
by jayjay on
Dec 5, 2008 9:27 AM EST
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Brisker
Rudimentary video showed him to be very athletic and with big size, I wonder what his ultimate power cieling might be
by ofsticksandbats on
Dec 5, 2008 11:37 AM EST
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Magnuson
He was drafted fairly highly in 07 but has benn something less than successful as a pro since then. Does he have any potential at all?
by ofsticksandbats on
Dec 5, 2008 3:17 PM EST
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At best a C
He was definitely on the radar before a disastrous season. Needs to rebound to gain some recognition.
by achengy on
Dec 5, 2008 6:15 PM EST
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Some questions
as a Jays fan, and a student (from afar) of their system, here are some things I’d like a professional take on:
1. What about the idea of Brad Emaus being the closest successor to Scott Rolen? I know he’s played mostly 2B but I’ve heard the Wiggington comparisons and if they are valid, then maybe it’s in the Jays best interest to start playing him at third.
2. Would a comparison between Campbell and Frank Catalanotto be as accurate as it seems on the surface?
3. Everyone talks about Jackson’s glove, rightfully so…but I don’t here much in terms of comparisons on his offense. What kind of ceiling does he have as a hitter?
4. How will Romero’s shaky confidence deal with pitching in the PCL?
5. How much will the time away from the plate hurt Lowen’s ceiling as a hitter? Does he still have a chance to hit like Ankiel?
by WillRain1 on
Dec 5, 2008 10:59 PM EST
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1. I still think they believe Ahrens is the future at 3B, i don’t see who else
2. I think Campbell has better patience at the plate, and could probably stay at 2b
3. he was ok offensively, need to cut down on K’s, decent walks, but this only happened in low A, could maybe be taking too many pitches, which could really hurt you in higher levels
4. He’s gotta cut down on walks, if you look at his game log, when he walks too many, he gets in trouble, which you can say about a lot of guys, but he’s somewhat of an enigma, last year his K’s increased, this here they were down, but kept his ERA down, i don’t know
5. Tough to accomplish, but anythings possible, could be 2-3 years before you have a better idea
by daman316 on
Dec 5, 2008 11:32 PM EST
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Answers
1. Not sure … don’t think there is a rush to name a “3b” of the future. Heck, if you need one, draft one this year.
2. He looks like a potential utility man … I’d hope for Mark Loretta
3. Never going to mash for power, but can take a walk and run. I don’t want to name names, but think of a guy who could hit for average, draw a walk and hit for gap power.
4. Not well I’d bet
5. A lot.. Ankiel wasn’t the first to try that, but might be the first to have succeeded. IOW, don’t hold your breathe.
by jayjay on
Dec 5, 2008 11:55 PM EST
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1. Emaus is still very far away. I’d like the Jays to be more aggressive with him but who knows who will emerge.
2. Campbell hasn’t been playing as much baseball so I think his ceiling is a little higher then Cat though if he turns out into something like Cat that wouldn’t be so bad. Maybe not as useful for the Jays but he’s a guy I’d like to see succeed.
3. Not sure how great of a shortstop he can be, strikes out a ton. He ceiling would be more likely an all-defense light hitting SS with good speed etc. Guys like Cesar Izturis ring up a bell. I think it’s more then likely he ends up being in a utility role.
4. I wouldn’t be surprised if they either put him in AA or aggressively promote him to the majors to see if he can find the magic.
5. It didn’t hurt Ankiel one bit, we’ll see… it’s a crapshoot until we see results.
by achengy on
Dec 6, 2008 12:53 AM EST
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wow
you’re down on Jackson – although it’s entirely possible you will be right, I think his ceiling as a hitter is higher than that. In 5 seasons, Izturis only had an OPS higher than .700 once in the minors, at high-A. Jackson has already managed that (though only just). Jackson also has 5 inches on Izturis and has shown much better plate discipline so far – the most Izturis ever walked in the minors was 22 times in 558 plate appearances, while Jackson had a respectable 62 walks last season in 528 plate appearances. Finally, Itzuris never had more than 3 home runs in the minors, while Jackson had 7 this season.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
by hugo on
Dec 6, 2008 10:13 AM EST
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Emaus was at Dunedin and a natural “one level a year” progression would have him at the major league level spring 2011 – the same time as the Jays need a replacement for Rolen (assuming Rolen leaves which I didn’t assume until they suddenly turned cheap). I could be be wrong but I don’t think Aherns will be ready by then.
*
On Jackson, my “pessimistic” view was that he would be Alex Gonzalez 2.0 with, of course, a hope that he could be better than that. Gonzo’s issue always was insisting on swinging for the fenxesrather than play to his strengths. i wondered if maybe the high strikeout total might be evidence that Jackson was giving in to the same temptation.
by WillRain1 on
Dec 6, 2008 3:28 PM EST
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One other thing
Why does Brett Wallace seem to get so much more praise than David Cooper? I know that the Cards are trying him at 3B so I assume he’s got a better glove but otherwise…what am I missing?
by WillRain1 on
Dec 5, 2008 11:34 PM EST
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Wallace
Wallace is a better hitter, and he moves well for a big dude too while Cooper is terribly slow. And to quote BA on Cooper’s glove “some scouts label him disinterested at worst and below-average at best”.
by jayjay on
Dec 5, 2008 11:51 PM EST
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Bat
Wallace has a better hit skill and more power.
by aCone419 on
Dec 6, 2008 12:26 PM EST
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Oh, make no mistake – I’m fine with the idea that Wallace is better – I’m just surprised at the gap. MLB put Wallace in the top 40 and if I had to guess I’d guess that Cooper won’t have made a Top 100. I guess I’ll have a better frame of referance as other lists come out.
by WillRain1 on
Dec 6, 2008 3:30 PM EST
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Stuff
Wallace just offers more all over the place. Better defensive value, outstanding plate discipline as opposed to solid plate discipline, plus-plus power as opposed to above-average or plus.
I like Wallace more than, say, Yonder Alonso . . .I think he’s actually one of the best 1B prospects out there right, and that’s even with me being pessimistic and saying he’s definitely moving over to 1B. If he’s a 3B for any amount of time, he’s some kind of awesome.
I see Cooper as an easy B prospect, nothing more, nothing less. Although I’m encouraged by the good early showing in pro ball.
by mrkupe on
Dec 8, 2008 2:23 AM EST
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Cooper, Wilson, Mills
Agreed, Will. Cooper is under-rated, but he had the label as being too advanced for the leagues he was in. Therefore, no one is going to go out on a limb for him. Toronto prospects usually don’t get the hype.
The pick I am most intrigued by this year was Kenneth Wilson. Last year I liked the Jackson pick before it was trendy ie. at the time of the pick :)
In regards to Mills, based on JP’s track record with players like Litsch, Marcum and Janssen, perhaps he should be given more consideration. FWIT, JP is very high on him.
by brent in Korea on
Dec 7, 2008 5:12 AM EST
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Intrigued as a sleeper pick is what I meant in regards to Wilson. You need to have a variety of players in the system, and a player with speed is something the Jays need.
by brent in Korea on
Dec 8, 2008 2:05 AM EST
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Scott Richmond
John mentioned Scott Richmond in the latest new thread starter, and yes, he’s 29 so not really the kind of guy you call a prospect but, for those of you who never took a close look at him, here’s something to recommend him- In 27 IP he struck out 20 and walked….TWO.
That ain’t bad folks, that ain’t bad.
by WillRain1 on
Dec 8, 2008 2:34 AM EST
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