Tommy Hanson
I was reading the Atlanta Braves Top 20 that was posted on October 23rd. And I was curious, because it appeared that Hanson's stock jumped a lot with his starts in teh Fall league, many of which happened after the top 20 was released.
BA ranked him #1 ahead of both Heyward and Freeman. Goldstein over at BP ranked him #2 behind Heyward, but said in a previous article that
I checked his writeup was part of the free stuff..
I remain massively confused as to why Hanson doesn't get talked about when most discuss the top pitching prospects in the game. For some reason, he's relegated to Group B, on the fringes of the discussion. That's despite the fact that he had one of the most dominating seasons put up by any pitcher at any level this year, and he also proved himself at Double-A, and he now has the scouting reports to match the numbers. Now, he's proving he belongs in that group in Arizona as well. With nine strikeouts in four no-hit innings on Saturday, Hanson extended his scoreless streak to 8 2/3innings in three games, during which he's allowed just one hit and struck out 14. Right-handers against him are 0-fo-20 with 12 strikeouts. Don't make the same mistake as other observers—this guy is one of the best out there.
Hanson finished in Arizona with a 5-0 record 0.63 era 7 starts, 28.2 ip, 10 hits 2 runs, yes 2 in 28.2 ip, 49 ks and 7 walks 7.0 k/bb ratio.
This was on top of an incredible season where he dominated at two levels, and I don't feel like looking it up (does anyone know where you can get gamelogs for players?) but I am pretty sure he has one really bad start early on after he was promoted to AA, but otherwise was equally as dominant.
0 recs |
31 comments
Comments
All year and -offseason long I have
Regarded him as an “A” group for Starting Pitchers….
To be honest, I don’t know exactly what Goldstein is talking about there when He Thinks Hanson Doesn’t get talked about much? huh?
Maybe not as strong as Neftali Feliz, David Price, and Trevor Cahill but otherwise I think he’s as good as anyone out there, basically.
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Dec 31, 2008 6:46 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
The article was written in october
I think Hanson’s hype/status hit its apex for the year after the AFL championship game.
Check out my baseball analysis blog FANalytics
by jbluestone on Jan 1, 2009 9:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Hanson
The reason he’s not in the “A” group is because of his FB ratio. Personally as a Braves fan I’m in the group where he’s going to have to prove to me he can do it at the ML level. We’ve had too many so called top pitching prospects that have came through our system that have been total busts so I’m going to wait until he actually does something at the ML level 1st but I really love the way he misses bats.
by Jay212033 on Dec 31, 2008 8:12 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
yeah the fly ball ratio is scary but my only question about that now is, if it was going to catch up to him anywhere wouldn’t it have been in Arizona where offense is so crazy? Instead he ends up having the best season of any pitcher ever in the AFL.
by yondaime4 on Dec 31, 2008 10:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
09 Braves rotation?
So is he ready to go into the Braves rotation this April or does he need more seasoning?
Is there a general consensus here?
Ripken.....thanks for the memories...
by bodyiq on Dec 31, 2008 8:53 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
No consensus
Some may think he could be ready right out of Spring Training….
some may think it would be best to wait out April and most of May
Then There will be those who say Not till September Call Ups,,,
you can bet your bottom dollar.
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Dec 31, 2008 9:08 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
polish and composure
the only video I have seen of hanson was the AFL championship. Great stuff in my opinion. the only part I did not like at all was him throwing a hissy fit on the mound when he thought he should of got the call. I saw 2-3 instances.
This won’t fly in the bigs, so he is going to need to work that out.
On the positive, this is probably one of the easier things to adjust.
by davidsabin on Jan 1, 2009 12:12 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
I know that ideally a pitcher is both
a high K guy and a groundball pitcher because it limits homers and damage. But there are very good pitchers who allow flyballs. Johan being the best obviously,
Some notable names who have a GB/FB ratio under 1.00
But Chris Young, Harden, Kazmir, Oliver Perez, Baker, Cain, Lilly, Harang, Nolasco, Vazquez, E. Santana, Bedard, Verlander, Randy Johnson.
Also according to minorleaguesplits.com Hanson’s GB/LD/FB rates were 40.7/18.5/39.9. Which is about 1.0
Check out my baseball analysis blog FANalytics
by jbluestone on Jan 1, 2009 3:43 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I've seen Hanson pitch in the Sally League
I didn’t like him much. He must have REALLY improved. I’m curious to see what he can do. He was throwing 88 when I saw him and was really laboring to get it up to 91-92. He was getting hit pretty hard by a REALLY bad Savannah Sand Gnats team.
Mike Newman
baseballhandyman.com
by Baseball Handyman on Jan 1, 2009 5:20 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Yeah
I’m not surprised at all by the velocities you just gave. Everyone deems Hansons fastball to be in the mid-90’s, but its probably something like a 91-93 type fastball. All velocities seem to get overblown when in the minors….
by Take3 on Jan 2, 2009 12:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Velocities
Most outlets have him at around 91-93 with the ability to crank it up to 95-96 every now and then. The claims that he “throws in the mid 90s” are usually just thrown around by random dudes on the internet and Chipper Jones.
by aCone419 on Jan 2, 2009 2:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
In general, scouting reports from two years ago aren't the best way to evaluate players
Reports started last year that his velocity had jumped into the mid-90s range about the same time he started dominating in Rome in 2007. The criticisms then were the same as they are now: “But this scouting report from when he was drafted has him in the low-90s and his FB rate is horrible. Clearly not a top guy.” Well, he sustained the velo increase through 2008. Perhaps more importantly, the Braves let him start throwing his slider again (his best pitch as an amature, but he didn’t throw it in the pros at all until this year). The first game he broke it out was the no-no he tossed. His slider is now probably his best pitch (top in the Atlanta system by BA).
The point being that a lot of people still have the impression that he’s got a middling FB and not a lot else besides a nice swing-and-miss curve. Well, as of this year, he’s got three plus pitches in addition to a change that still needs work. I doubt he makes the rotation out of spring training, but I think after some time in AAA, he’ll be in Atlatna for at least half the year. Currently, I think he profiles more as a #2 than a #1, but if he can get his changeup to be anything more than a “show me” kinda thing, he could turn out to be very impressive.
by mraver on Jan 2, 2009 2:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Perhaps to clarify
BA’s latest say:
His moving fastball resides in the low to mid-90s and explodes in on the hands of righthanders.
So I guess 93-95 is “low to mid”?
by mraver on Jan 2, 2009 2:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Goldstein says:
His fastball is parked at 91-93 mph but can touch 95-96 when he rears backs for a little extra.
I think that is probably about right. That would also fit the “low to mid 90s” report. But I wouldn’t be surprised if he is still working 88-92 some days. Velocity is not static from start to start.
by aCone419 on Jan 2, 2009 2:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Chris R. Young comp?
Not quite as tall as Young, but a big guy with an unusually high FB rate and a low BAVG against. I could see him pitching 180 innings per year with maybe 160+ strikeouts. He won’t be tossing half his starts in Petco, so the ERA might be a little higher, but he seems like a solid pitcher.
by fps31520 on Jan 1, 2009 10:24 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I dont see it
hansons GB/FB ratio is about 1.00…. Chris Young is .5….
Check out my baseball analysis blog FANalytics
by jbluestone on Jan 2, 2009 12:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
maybe so,
but a 1.00 rate in the minors still makes him a likely flyball pitcher in the majors. I understand your point, that Young is an EXTREME flyball pitcher whereas Hanson isn’t as extreme, but my point is that Hanson’s FB rate shoudln’t immediately invalidate his other talents. Chris Young, though not dominant, is still a very good pitcher.
by fps31520 on Jan 2, 2009 8:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I very much
agree with this
Check out my baseball analysis blog FANalytics
by jbluestone on Jan 3, 2009 12:09 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
After adding the slider...
His GB/FB ratio was in the 1.2 to 1.3 range. Maybe its just the Braves fan in me, but when I look at the splits I see a completely different pitcher after the slider was added. He started striking out a lot more hitters and his GB/FB ratio went up by about .4
by nixa37 on Jan 3, 2009 4:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
If I am correct
he got shelled in his first start or two in AA, like really badly, and then was equally dominant.. but I cant find game logs for minor leaguers.
But when your talking about a
Check out my baseball analysis blog FANalytics
by jbluestone on Jan 3, 2009 5:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
sorry ignore the last line, was an accident.
Check out my baseball analysis blog FANalytics
by jbluestone on Jan 3, 2009 5:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe ERA wise (I'm not sure about that)
But not in the context of FIP or GB/FB rates. The first was actually better through his 1st month in AA, and the latter was about even in the first two months.
by nixa37 on Jan 3, 2009 5:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You're right that he struggled at first
IIRC, he had two or three starts in AA that were poor, then he threw the no-no, then he had another bad outing or two (I chalked it up to fatigue from going 9), and then he dominated the rest of the way. I wasn’t paying attention to his GB/FB rates at the time (the overall rate was poor, and I just left it at that), so I can’t comment on that.
by mraver on Jan 3, 2009 9:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Here is a BA Prospect Hot Sheet write up after his no hitter
Team: Double-A Mississippi (Southern)
Age: 21
Why He’s Here: 9 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 2 HBP, 3 BB, 14 SO
The Scoop: After topping our first Hot Sheet of the 2008 season, Hanson finds himself back on top again after striking out 14 in a nine-inning no-hitter.
Hanson began the year dominating high Class A Carolina League hitters—a 0.90 ERA in 40 innings with a 49-11 K-BB mark—in the pitcher-friendly confines at Myrtle Beach. His transition to Double-A hasn’t been silky smooth—he’s allowed at least six runs in three of his eight starts—but he now has 49 strikeouts and 19 walks in 50 Double-A innings.
Of course, none of his outings were as good as the no-hitter—which Hanson said was his first complete-game no-hitter since he threw a couple of them in Little League. He made the Birmingham lineup look like a bunch of Little Leaguers on Wednesday, thanks in part to a new grip on his curveball, though Hanson said it was his slider that resulted in the most third strikes.
“Before the start I changed the grip on my curveball and started throwing my slider a little more,” Hanson said. “Last night was the first night everything kind of clicked. I was throwing it off my index finger, but (pitching coach Derek) Botelho said I should throw it with my middle finger. It was a lot more consistent and felt a lot better coming out of my hand.”
[Bold added by me]
Check out my baseball analysis blog FANalytics
by jbluestone on Jan 4, 2009 1:28 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
irionically as a HS baseball coach
I always teach my pitchers to throw the curve with the middle finger, because the index finger is higher up on the ball and allows you to control it a lot more IMO, however, i think pitchers like the index finger because they get more break out of it.
Here is a middle finger grip
Here is a a index finger grip
Check out my baseball analysis blog FANalytics
by jbluestone on Jan 4, 2009 1:31 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
if your curious
Here is the BA hot sheet
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/prospect-hot-sheet/2008/266408.html
Check out my baseball analysis blog FANalytics
by jbluestone on Jan 4, 2009 1:32 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
2/3 for braves?
Hanson will get knocked around a bit, trying settle in as a Braves 2/3 behind Jurrjens, Hudson (When he is healthy?). But he will surely get a lot of hits on him with his pounding the zone and delivery he better watch it. Otherwise IMO he should have a decent rookie year, when they SHOULD bring him up after ST so they can see what they have with that mess of a rotation they’ve got. LOL. Him over heyward/freeman is nuts. Those two could be the next bash brothers.
by Dray1996 on Jan 2, 2009 9:18 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Perception just hasn't caught up with reality
when it comes to Hanson. People want to focus on his overall AA numbers and seem to look at his AFL performance as a bit of an aberration. The problem with doing that is Hanson clearly changed as a pitcher once he added his slider back into the mix in late June, and his AFL performance wasn’t really out of line with what he was doing in AA at the end of the season.
Allegedly, the first start Hanson used the slider was in his no hitter. That start came on June 25. He had one more start in June, and I’m not sure how he did in it, but take a look at his post June splits. In July he upped his K rate from the mid 8s all the way up to 11 in July and 13.2 in August. His HR rate dropped from from 1.32 to 1 to .32 and his flyball rate dropped from 44.3% to 37.2% to 32.2%, and more than 1/4 of the FB he gave up in August were IF FBs. Suddenly his AFL performance, where he struck out 15.4 and gave up .31 HR per 9 innings doesn’t look that out of line with what he was doing late in the season. To me, it simply looks like Hanson became a significantly different pitcher once he started throwing the slider, and his growth from July to August to the AFL was simply a function of his getting back the feel for throwing his slider consistently.
The funny thing to me is the people who are willing to rank Porcello despite the stats because he isn’t allowed to throw his breaking stuff. Hanson basically went through the same thing with his slider, but he was eventually allowed to throw it and the results once he did were pretty staggering. I mean if this was Porcello we were talking about right now, people would be arguing for him to be on the same level as MadBum, and possibly on the same level as Price. Because Hanson was a “late” bloomer (seriously he pitched basically the whole season at 21), even after the improvement people rank him right around #10 among just SP prospects.
by nixa37 on Jan 3, 2009 12:56 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

by 











