Houston Astros Top 20 Prospects
by John Sickels on Dec 30, 2008 2:37 PM EST
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My favorite Houston Astro of all time was James Rodney Richard
All grades are EXTREMELY PRELIMINARY and subject to change. Don’t get too worried about exact rankings at this point, especially once you get out of the top 10. Grade C+/C guys are pretty interchangeable depending on what you are looking for.
1) Jason Castro, C, Grade B: Good glove, should provide some power, not sure if he’ll hit enough to be a genuine star or just a solid player.
2) Brian Bogusevic, OF, Grade B-: Good plate discipline, should hit for average, but lack of home run power may make him a fourth outfielder. However, you have to like the rapid adjustment he made, and the power may still come.
3) Bud Norris, RHP, Grade B-: Throws hard, but doesn’t change speeds well and seems better-suited to bullpen work than starting.
4) Jordan Lyles, RHP, Grade B-: Very projectable young arm but will need time to develop.
5) Ross Seaton, RHP, Grade B-: Another very projectable young arm and a local kid. For some reason I’m optimistic about him and Lyles.
6) Felipe Paulino, RHP, Grade C+: If healthy, could rank B- and ahead of Lyles and Seaton. Great stuff, but role and condition of arm are uncertain.
7) Drew Sutton, 2B, Grade C+: I see him as a useful role player due to broad secondary skills.
8) Chris Johnson, 3B, Grade C+: Hasn’t hit outside the Texas League. I’ve seen both Sutton and Johnson play. Johnson has better tools but Sutton is far more polished and skillful.
9) Sam Gervacio, RHP, Grade C+: Decent stuff and weird delivery, should be good middle reliever.
10) Chia-Jen-Lo, RHP, Grade C+: Hard to grade. Scouting reports indicate a polished guy who could be a decent fourth/fifth starter or a good long reliever, but doesn’t have upside beyond that.
11) Collin DeLome, OF, Grade C: Good power, some speed, but bad strike zone judgment will hold him back.
12) Sergio Perez, RHP, Grade C: Injured in regular season, but did well in Arizona Fall League. Could be fourth/fifth starter but might dominate more in the pen.
13) Polin
14) T.J. Steele, OF, Grade C: Good tools, power and speed, but very raw for a college guy, with major strike zone problems.
15) J.B. Shuck, OF, Grade C: Showed no power in college, but hit with authority in NY-P. Athletic, good plate discipline, more polished than Steele but not as much upside.
16) Jay Austin, OF, Grade C: Very toolsy high school kid, could not hit Appalachian League pitching but is young enough to improve.
17) Federico Hernandez, C, Grade C: Very good defensive catcher, bat may be questionable at higher levels but at least he makes some contact.
18) Leandro Cespedes, RHP, Grade C: Average stuff, but good K/BB and K/IP marks in the Sally League. Will this carry forward?
19) Phil Disher, 1B, Grade C: Monster numbers in the NY-P League, excellent power, but horrible glove and high strikeout rate limit his grade at this time.
20) Tim Torres, SS, Grade C: Older prospect, but has some skills and could be on the Drew Sutton sleeper path.
Others: Fernando Abad, LHP; Douglas Arguello, LHP; Koby Clemens, C; Luis Cruz, LHP; Gilbert De La Vara, LHP; David Duncan, LHP; Brad Dydalewicz, LHP; Mitch Einertson, OF; Chris Hicks, RHP; Eli Iorg, OF; Brad James, RHP; Tommy Manzella, SS.
As usual, don’t sweat so much about where the Grade C+/C types rank exactly on this list. After I get past the top 10 I don’t worry so much about exact placement, since I’m trying to concentrate on the book right now. Some of the Grade C guys could be C+ in the book, and vice versa.
SYSTEM IN BRIEF
This is an extremely thin system right now, but the 2008 draft looks somewhat promising and they seem to be taking the need to rebuild more seriously. I think Castro is pretty solid, but I think there were other guys available in the draft who would make bigger impacts. It says a lot about the system that the number two hitter was a pitcher a year ago. Sutton looks like a good role player to me, but I’m not totally convinced about Chris Johnson yet. Johnson has better tools, but Sutton looks more likely to actually live up to his potential. 2008 outfield draftees Steele, Shuck, and Austin are all interesting, but for very different reasons.
Pitching-wise, there are no definite impact guys right now. Norris has a lively arm but I have doubts about him as a starter. Lyles and Seaton could both be excellent, but they carry the risks typical for projectable young pitchers and won’t advance quickly. After that you have a bunch of fifth starter/reliever types.
Full reports on these players and over 1,000 others can be found in the 2009 Baseball Prospect Book. Pre-order for January 31st shipping now!
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Even crazier
I think John is being VERY optimistic about his outlook for a lot of these guys.
But then again I guess it kind of sucks having to give one guy a B, another couple of guys a B-, and then everybody else being tossed into the C+/C pile.
I think he missed on Brad James and Mitch Einertston...
both had poor 2008s but Einertston still has the most potential of any of the outfielders, and James was injured he could be a very productive pitcher in the big leagues in 2009. C+ for both.
by byronlhsdrmr on Dec 31, 2008 11:18 AM EST up reply actions
reserve
backup catcher if he can cut down on the passed balls
by John Sickels on Dec 30, 2008 3:05 PM EST up reply actions
sutton
I’ve seen him…I dind’t think his glove was tHAT bad…not good, but not horrid.
by John Sickels on Dec 30, 2008 3:05 PM EST up reply actions
Sutton
Jason Grey of ESPN on Sutton (11/08)
“Sutton repeated Double-A this season, but he was consistently squaring the ball up in the AFL. His swing is smooth and balanced from both sides, and you would think that because of his relatively slight frame he doesn’t generate a lot of power, but he does due to great swing mechanics. He showed to be fairly versatile, and I think he has a chance of becoming a quietly productive regular for the Astros.”
That said, I think a C+ is appropriate enough but I think he could surprise some people in the end.
Lou Palmissano
I hear Palmissano went in the Rule 5 from Milwaukee to Baltimore and was sold to Houston. Does he crack their top 20? He used to be described as a great leader and has had a few good offensive seasons. Considering catchers may bloom late, is there something here to be interested in?
How so?
You may be looking at it differently, but Moreland has 45 pounds on Shuck, so he’s not going to be the same kind of player.
Yeah, Shuck has more speed. That’s the one major contrast. He flashed some power though in the NY-P this year, after playing at Ohio State where homeruns are scarce. I’m surmising the power is legit. We’ll see. Otherwise, they have everything in common. Both were scouted as pitchers in college. Neither are pure outfielders. They are both going to be limited to corners. And the strikezone discipline is uncanny.
Josh Flores
Anyone have any info on him? I know he didn’t play all year and was wondering why. He was a guy I was watching going into the 2008 season (Good avg., decent pop, good SB% but AA transition didn’t go too well) but as you could guess, there wasn’t much to watch this year.
freak injury
He tripped in a parking lot right before Spring Training and blew out his knee. I don’t remember if it was the ACL or MCL, but it was one of those freak accidents that baseball players have a knack for.
J.R. Richard was my favorite Astro, too.
Thanks for the image, John.
John
With such a terrible system, who might we be able to look at for potential sleepers?
Anyone?
Everett, Laird, Treanor, and E. Jackson. Print those WS tix now!
Sleepers
One guy I would consider a sleeper is RHP Robert Bono. He pitched in the NY-P as a 19-year old and put up decent, albeit not mind-boggling numbers. While his raw stats aren’t eye-popping, he did make a lot of progress. He throws hard, keeps the ball on the ground (2.27 GO/AO), and greatly cut down on the walks (to 1 every ~7 innings) while increasing his K rate. He should be start ’09 in Lexington.
I don’t really consider him a long-term sleeper, but one guy to watch who could put up big numbers in ‘09 is Brian Pellegrini. He hit 21 HR in 310 AB at Lexington and is going to spend ’09 in the most HR-friendly park in the minors in Lancaster. He’s an all-or-nothing type and could put up huge power numbers in that park.
Max Sapp - any signs of life?
the drafting of Castro is an obvious strong signal to the org.’s feelings I guess, but there were some questions about Sapp remaining a C by the time he could move up anyway. I loved watching this kid play here in HS, and the learning curve for HS catchers is maybe the longest in all of pro ball but wow what a fall. I understand conditioning was/is an issue – any hope?
Mulder: Babe Ruth was an alien? Arthur Dales: sure; all the great ones were aliens.
life support
Wow, that’s eery. I typed the “life support” title before going to look for an article about his progress in Instructionals. When I reached the Houston Chronicle’s website, I see an article that Sapp has been in the hospital for the last couple of weeks with meningitis. The biggest concern right now is his health, but on a baseball front, he could end up starting late and/or starting slowly.
Personally, I’ve thought that they should have moved him off of catcher already. The scouting report when he was drafted was that his bat should play wherever. Of course, a good bat is a premium at catcher, whereas at 1B, it’s a requirement. But, I’m wondering if switching off of catcher would help him to focus on his hitting. Though, I also wonder if he thinks too much at the plate (or is being overcoached).
The Castro selection itself wasn’t a slight: you shouldn’t draft based on need. But, I do think ‘09 is going to be a very important season for him, possibly his last chance. It’s a shame that he’s fighting for more than he’s career right now, but he’s going to have to prove a lot once he is ready. Ed Wade hasn’t been afraid to jettison the previous regime’s selections and eventually Sapp could become a victim.
If the 08 draft wasn't based on need tell me how
the Astro’s drafted Castro over Smoak?
If you can’t use need as a criteria there is no defensible argument outside of unwillingness to spend. That in itself means that Castro would be a reach as well.
That is the Astro mistake...
I am more thankful for everyday
by Rangers2009 on Dec 30, 2008 10:58 PM EST up reply actions
Look at how Castro played in 2008, and in the Hawaii winter league...
Castro was very underrated going into the draft, and I feel as though he was probably the 12th-15th best player in the draft. Bobby Heck said they were drafting based on best available, and he said he had Castro over Smoak. Not that I think that is true but, the Astros could not draft Smoak. They have Berkman at first, and that is where he will say for a long time, so they took Castro. I am sure Castro’s price tag also helped, and had they signed Smoak I do not know if they would’ve been able to go over slot for some of the other guys they signed later. I prefer Castro, and Ross Seaton, to just Smoak.
by byronlhsdrmr on Dec 31, 2008 11:26 AM EST up reply actions
signability
I’m sure that played a big part. They knew Castro was willing to sign for slot, Smoak talked about $4M before finally settling for $3.5M at the deadline. You can say they were unwilling to spend for the best available talent, but only a handful of teams did go over slot in the first round (Rangers and Red Sox were only ones after #8), so they weren’t alone. Take Smoak and Kelly out of the equation since they went overslot and basically, the Astros could have had any of the other available 1st-rounders. That they chose Castro means they really did like him. More than Hicks or Martin or Lawrie, they liked Castro.
When looking at their decision to stay at slot for the 1st-round, you have to acknowledge that had they selected Smoak, they would have been forced to go cheap for the rest of the draft, meaning no Seaton or Dydalewicz. That’s putting all their eggs into one basket and if something did happen to Smoak, you’re weakening a weak system even further. Getting multiple strong picks over one elite pick was the right way to go in that draft.
by astrosfan76 on Dec 31, 2008 10:08 AM EST up reply actions
If signability was a big part
then once again it proves that Catro should have not been drafted where he was. The difference in the top 10 picks for Texas and the Astros is 1.1M with Texas going WAY over slot for Ross and Smoak.
It was not like the A’s where upset that Castro went 2 picks before them, they where upset Smoak was picked.
And as far as multiple picks vs. elite pick, pretty much all drafting research has proven that the success rate of the elite players(top 10) way out weigh those in top 10-20 or for that matter 2nd or 3rd round. That is wy drafting for need or refusing to draft fearing the demand of a player is ludicris. Even if Smoak doesn’t sign they would now get pick 10b in this years draft. The Astros could just as well went after a high end third rounder, not sign him and get the same pick next year if they where worried about the $$ differential instead.
Talent is talent. Smoak stands a great chance to be ready in 2010, Castro will be very lucky to do so. Even if Berkman is still there, Smoak would be a valuable trade chip. Just look at John’s ranking of the 2. A- vs. a B. Even with postional scarcity there is no team in the league who right now would take Castro over Smoak, and it is not even close.
Signability is a limited argument
If Castro went for slot and the vast majority of players after him signed for slot, you’re reasoning on signability (or, at least, perceived value by the player/agent) means that Castro went what, 1 or 2 spots too early? If we were operating in a system with fixed slotting for draft picks, then you could ignore factors, like money, and just pick the best talent. But, since teams do operate with draft budgets and have to fit X number of picks into that amount, while getting as much talent as possible, then signability does play a factor for most clubs. By the way, the $1.1M difference over 10 rounds netted 9 players for the Rangers and 11 for the Astros.
On the multiple (strong) picks vs. 1 elite pick argument, who determines whether a player is a top 10 player, or not? Is it based on one person’s determination of the top 10 players? I find it hard to believe that you could get a consensus if you have more people working on the list than that. Figuring out the 11-20 range and beyond would be even worse. If it’s one person’s determination, how are they able to fairly assess every player in the draft? How do they see them enough to compare them to every other player? But, if the top 10 are just based on draft selection, then the argument is meaningless because Castro was a top 10 pick. I’d like to see this research.
It would be nice if the scouting department was handed a blank check to sign the best player available with every pick. But, since they weren’t, you can not pin your entire draft on 1 player. Injuries do happen, unexpected flameouts do occur. When a system is weak with little depth and high-end talent, 1 player is not going to turn an organization around. Porcello is a great prospect, but does he make the Detroit system strong? No, they’re just a weak system with 1 strong prospect. The Astros need multiple strong picks to add depth and they could still end up with an elite prospect if one of the prep arms develops like they hope.
Why would an organization with a weak system pick a guy they thought they couldn’t sign or pick a much, much lesser prospect with no intention of signing him? Getting a 1st-round compensation pick is nice, though you look pretty dumb in the process (see Nationals, Washington). After the Astros’ ‘07 draft, I don’t think those were ever options. Besides, signing a player now who will help you is much more beneficial in the short and long-run.
My question all along (at least after getting over the initial shock) has been this: “If the Astros had selected Martin or Hicks, would people have made as big of a deal?” Castro has gotten great reviews since he was drafted, but since he went higher than most expected, he still has the label (by some) as a bad pick. Is a solid, possibly All-Star catcher really a bad pick?
Not much
He’s been grossly out of shape and just plain lazy as a pro, and it shows. The performance in all aspects has just been abyssmal. At the very least you’d expect to see some power production out of him, but he doesn’t even have that.
What are the good things to say about him? Well . . .he’s still kind of young. And he probably wasn’t ever going to be a catcher anyways, so there’s really not much shame in moving him now. Maybe that’ll push him to get back into shape and then maybe we’ll see what kind of talent he really has. But it appears that the evaluation was pretty much off in every possible way.
My Favorite too...
JR Richard was a tremendous pitcher. I see nothing near his talent in the Houston ML system now.
Bogusevic
I will have to agree with the ranking of Bogusevic. I think the power will come…he’s always been touted to have great power from his Tulane days, and he’s also 6’3 215.
Need a new #20
Tim Torres was released in November.
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