Fantasy question: Delmon or C. Gomez longterm
by Team Moneyball
on Dec 3, 2008 9:53 PM EST
46 comments
Hey guys,
Somewhat unique situation. We're doing a supplemental draft where we can cherry pick guys off a defunct roster. I can roll the dice on either Delmon or Gomez for basically nothing, I don't need either to produce right away and can hold onto them as long as I want.
I'm in a points league so generally power(through total bases) is usually the way to go, but a guy like Gomez who can develop power and has tons of speed can produce.
Who would you want to roll the dice on long term?
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I’d probably take Gomez because he’s at least guaranteed to give you something(SB). He could also develop power and it’s not like Young has really shown anything Gomez hasn’t.
by supermets on
Dec 3, 2008 9:58 PM EST
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I was just...
about to type the same thing.
by joegonzo on
Dec 3, 2008 9:59 PM EST
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Delmon Young still has miles more potential than Gomez ever did
It’s fantasy, so SBs matter a lot more, which I guess tilts things a bit back towards Gomez…. But I don’t see him as a top-of-the-lineup (and hence 30+ SBs) type. I’d feel more comfortable betting on Young’s crazy tools to surface at some point.
by mraver on
Dec 3, 2008 10:12 PM EST
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I would take Delmon
don’t even think it’s close
by nyy601 on
Dec 3, 2008 10:33 PM EST
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It depends
I think everyone knows what they’re getting when they want Gomez. High upside, huge floor.
People have a lot of different theories of how good Young will be. If you think he’s worth it, he’s worth it. Simple as that.
by METSMETSMETS on
Dec 3, 2008 10:48 PM EST
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Delmon
In real life I think it might be closer, given Gomez’s defensive value. But for fantasy, I’ve got to go with Young. The upside there with the bat just seems much greater, and he’ll steal a few bases too.
by acerimusdux on
Dec 3, 2008 10:51 PM EST
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on the opposite
in respect to real v. fantasy. But still Young is the way to go—just see his 2nd half from last year, where he went on a tear. I think he’ll build on that going forward, not to mention that he isn’t a slouch with SBs, either.
--Pablo Zevallos of yankeesfuture.wordpress.com
by Pablo Zevallos on
Dec 3, 2008 11:04 PM EST
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As underwhelming as Delmon has been
-He at least hit in the minors for more than brief stretches
-He’s improved at the major league level
-He can hit a baseball. Something Gomez is completely incapable of doing.
Delmon by a mile. Gomez is an athlete masquerading as a hitter.
by alskor on
Dec 3, 2008 11:09 PM EST
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+1 (to your title)
- +1
- +1
- +1
+1
by journeymen on
Dec 4, 2008 10:08 AM EST
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sounds like you already did
but i don’t see why that’s helpful
"If you hit .440 with 20 bombs, you don't have to do s---. You don't have to bring a glove to practice, just hit and leave whenever you want. You can bring a 40 and smoke a cigarette and call me from the parking lot asking me what time the game is, and I'll tell you. You can even say 'F--- you, Steve!' Actually, don't say that, that wouldn't be very nice." -Steve Friend, Head Coach, Chabot College Gladiators Baseball
by flipgatey3 on
Dec 4, 2008 12:54 PM EST
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It's not
But it’s my Opinion and it’s free, you get what you pay for.
1941 .406
by FrozenTed9 on
Dec 4, 2008 1:15 PM EST
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in that case
i am satisfied.
i also am a big fan of the username. that was a great simpsons episode.
"If you hit .440 with 20 bombs, you don't have to do s---. You don't have to bring a glove to practice, just hit and leave whenever you want. You can bring a 40 and smoke a cigarette and call me from the parking lot asking me what time the game is, and I'll tell you. You can even say 'F--- you, Steve!' Actually, don't say that, that wouldn't be very nice." -Steve Friend, Head Coach, Chabot College Gladiators Baseball
by flipgatey3 on
Dec 5, 2008 4:36 AM EST
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Young
just be patient, guys, the breakthrough is coming soon…
The 2008 Rogelio Moret League Fantasy Baseball Champions!
by The Congo Hammer on
Dec 4, 2008 12:57 AM EST
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Actually, I wouldnt be shocked if it took a couple years or more still
He’s just that young. Plenty of time for scores more of people to foolishly give up on him.
by alskor on
Dec 4, 2008 1:29 AM EST
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Let me ask you
when does his age stop mattering? When he’s 26 it is ok to give up on him then?
1941 .406
by FrozenTed9 on
Dec 4, 2008 1:11 PM EST
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That would be 4 years from now
I think we can wait until he’s 24 at least – a lot of guys are rookies at age 24. Instead of being in MLB – where he’s held his own – he could easily have been in AA the last two season and still been age appropriate.
by alskor on
Dec 4, 2008 1:43 PM EST
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The Thing
with young is that he’s already got 1100 at bats. IN the ML Tom Kelly always said when they get to 1000 At bats they are who they are and Delmon young is what he is. I could see some small improvements but not nothing major like you are talking about.
After watching almost all of his at bats I don’t think he really changed during the year he had better months but the basic problems of hitting the ball on the ground and bad pitch recognition and strike zone judgment were pretty much constant.
Now if it turns out he has below average eyesight and gets Lasik like Span did I’d be willing to give him another chance.
1941 .406
by FrozenTed9 on
Dec 4, 2008 2:02 PM EST
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Tom Kelly
also let David Ortiz rot on the bench for years.
No way in hell is Delmon at 22 done developing. Its counter intuitive. If you stuck Willy Mays as a 15 year old in the majors would he be done developing.
Tom Kelly is dead wrong. Ask Adrian Beltre or the scores of other hitters who proved him wrong. Andruw Jones… etc…
by alskor on
Dec 4, 2008 3:29 PM EST
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Beltre
What argument are you making with him that he got worse?
Then had one good year?
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?playerId=3878
Same thing with Jones after 1000 At bats he has been pretty much the same player.
In 1998 he hit 1000 he had a 116 OPS+ and He’s been better some seasons but mostly that is what he was in his prime.
1996 47
1997 93
1998 116
1999 113
2000 125
2001 94
2002 127
2003 117
2004 112
2005 136
2006 126
2007 88
2008 34
1941 .406
by FrozenTed9 on
Dec 4, 2008 6:23 PM EST
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I think you right and wrong about Tom Kelly
TKs general rule would certainly apply to the kind of every day player that the Twins draft and develop. Nevertheless, I don’t think that what he is arguing works for more talented, toolsy guys – which coincides more with what you are saying. I would hope that TK has a more nuanced outlook than the general rule indicates.
As far as Ortiz goes. He was injured with the Twins, and was perceived to be lazy, which is obviously not “Twins Baseball.” I also think that, as good as Big Papi is, he might have benefitted greatly from Manny’s presence in the lineup; he never had that kind of protection in Minnesota. I apologize, I do not have the numbers to back that up. It is a bit of a hunch at this point.
by dumbox97 on
Dec 4, 2008 9:15 PM EST
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Ortiz first broke out batting behind Manny(or lower), not in front of him. They didnt flip flop until the next year.
by alskor on
Dec 4, 2008 9:21 PM EST
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I respect that point
However – don’t you think that protection in the lineup is not simply based on whether a guy bats in front of a guy? Aren’t there times when a guy batting behind a player, perceived to be a more dangerous hitter, actually gets put in better situations to get hits. For example, they may percieve Manny batting in the 3 hole to be more of a threat then Ortiz batting in the 4 hole. So they walk Manny to get to Ortiz. If there are other men on base then they can’t really pitch around Ortiz as well, giving him better pitches to hit. Thus, Ortiz would benefit from Manny’s presence in the lineup.
Maybe I am distorting what you are trying to say. Please clarify – if necessary.
by dumbox97 on
Dec 4, 2008 9:45 PM EST
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Lineup protection...
is entirely theoretical with no proof whatsoever that indicates it’s a real thing. It gives bad sportscasters something to talk about to make them sound smart, and little else.
by slamcactus on
Dec 7, 2008 2:51 AM EST
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Nope
When’s he’s 26 is when it’s time to pick him up. Power hitters in particular tend to peak around age 28. So 26-30 is really prime there. Often you shouldn’t expect too much before then.
I think we spend way too much time following “prospects” who are years away, then tend to forget about guys once they lose rookie eligibility. I think it would be interesting to consider guys “prospects” a little longer; maybe until they run out of options, or use some other rule that lets you include guys with some significant MLB time, but who still have a good chance to break out in the near future.
by acerimusdux on
Dec 5, 2008 4:12 AM EST
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FWIW
Gomez turns 23 today – three months younger than Delmon. I’d take Gomez because a.) you said you need neither and b.) Delmon’s stats are more common.
by faketeams on
Dec 4, 2008 8:48 AM EST
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Wait
So was this a fantasy question or real life? I answered real life – I think you answered fantasy…
by alskor on
Dec 4, 2008 1:44 PM EST
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Thread is fantasy
True. if I answered real life, I’d have added Gomez’ defense is excellent and therefor he will continue to get full-time ABs.
by faketeams on
Dec 5, 2008 9:14 AM EST
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Young
I agree that much of Gomez’s value is in his defense right now and while that might change someday I still think I’d rather have Young on a fantasy team. His K rate dropped a bit and his BB rate went up a decent amount. His OPS+ went from 91 to 102 and this was all while getting used to a different team. I doubt Young will ever live up to his once though of potential but how many guys are as good as he was supposed to be? Living up to his potential would be a perennial MVP candidate. He could still be a 20 20 guy maybe more and get to a few all star games.
Like others have said Gomez has some crazy potential to steal bases and could become a better hitter. If you look at his splits he had a couple of really good months in May and in September where he showed glimpses of his ability as a hitter. He has a huge ceiling and could be great but he also has the ability to crash and become nothing more than a batless defender.
So yah, I’d take Young in fantasy and would be extremely torn in real life.
Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?
by halfchest on
Dec 4, 2008 12:41 PM EST
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20/20
HRs and steals? You haven’t seen him run. The 20 Hrs is possible but the steals are out of reach.
1941 .406
by FrozenTed9 on
Dec 4, 2008 1:13 PM EST
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except
that he’s hit double digits each of his two full seasons, and had 14 last year….the delmon hate in this case is truly unfounded…
Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results.
by biggentleben on
Dec 4, 2008 2:25 PM EST
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He stole 14!
I hardly think its a reach.
by alskor on
Dec 4, 2008 3:31 PM EST
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Players don't get faster
He gets caught about 27% of the time so he’d have to attempt 27-28 steals to do that which is a lot more than the 19 times he ran this year. Plus the twins don’t really run that much they are in the top half but not in the top 10.
1941 .406
by FrozenTed9 on
Dec 4, 2008 6:30 PM EST
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steals
He’s actually been closer to 20 steals than home runs. The guy looks like weird when he runs but he’s deceivingly fast, I don’t know how to explain it but he must be. 14 to 20 is definitely not out of reach.
Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?
by halfchest on
Dec 4, 2008 3:39 PM EST
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delmon dislike
not sure about hate with all, but still….why folks are so down on him makes no sense….he was an above average player (102 OPS+) this year, and he increased all kinds of peripherals this year over his season last year, which got him 2nd in the rookie of the year voting….his closest age 22 comparable is Yaz with Roberto Clemente being in his top 10 comparables….but the list of areas he improved is quite long: BA, OBP, OPS, SB, and RC/G….his slugging was down 3 points, but was actually nearly equal to the league slugging, whereas in 2007, he was 12 points below league average in slugging….so he is making strides….
Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results.
by biggentleben on
Dec 4, 2008 2:37 PM EST
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If people dont become an instant superstar
the fickle crowd turns on them these days. Then they ignore improvement because its not a huge leap forward.
by alskor on
Dec 4, 2008 3:31 PM EST
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The other thing is
I’ll agree that he was overrated. I don’t expect him to be what he was once projected to be but he can still be a very good player with a few all star type seasons. Another interesting thing I noticed was that once the Twins decided he didn’t need to play every damn day he hit much much better. Starting May 30th (the first day after sitting for a game) he hit .308 .345 .446 .791 with all of his homers and most of his doubles coming during this span. He had over an .800 OPS in 3 of the last 4 months of the season (had a rough August) and showed improvement as the year went on. He may not have grown by leaps and bounds but at least he didn’t regress as some would seem to think.
Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?
by halfchest on
Dec 4, 2008 3:49 PM EST
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+1
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on
Dec 4, 2008 4:39 PM EST
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No I just watched him
everyday. I don’t Doubt he can crush 450 ft hrs in batting practice I know he can regularly in fact. I don’t think he can hit 370 Ft ones in games. That’s the difference.
1941 .406
by FrozenTed9 on
Dec 4, 2008 6:34 PM EST
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and i watched him almost every game as well
you basically have to want to see his flaws to only see them….he flashed absolute brilliance as often as he flashed crap….he lived more on the “above average” scale….not a superstar, and many twins fans had disproportionate hate for him because the twins gave up garza, who became a fan fav of sorts….
Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results.
by biggentleben on
Dec 4, 2008 11:52 PM EST
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Ok
what did you see in him this year? I’m legitimately interested I know I can be wrong and willing to hear other sides of the argument.
1941 .406
by FrozenTed9 on
Dec 5, 2008 12:24 PM EST
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Gomez or Young
Man that is tough. I am much more drawn to Gomez and his high ceiling. On the flip side, I actually agree with anybody that defends Young. He is better than people are giving him credit for and he is still only 22. One thing that surprised me when I saw his steal numbers is that I expected him to be fast, but when you see him run he appears to be unathletic. In response to the doubts about Delmon being 20/20 . . . I think he has a great chance to get there, but, after last season, I worry a bit about his power numbers; you have to wonder why his power isn’t translating.
To be clear – I would go Gomez because of his guaranteed speed and his potential to develop power. Now if he could just get on base.
by dumbox97 on
Dec 4, 2008 9:33 PM EST
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