Community Prospect List: #85
by the pinstripes
on Dec 3, 2008 10:23 AM EST
121 comments
After 477 votes the winner of the poll is Gorkys Hernandez with 18% of the vote. David Cooper(2%), Michael Taylor(3%), Todd Frazier(5%), Beau Mills(5%) & Brad Holt(2%) will be removed from the poll as they failed to achieve at least 7% of the vote. Danny Duffy, Jason Castro, Chris Perez, Aaron Poreda, Daryl Jones & Neftali Soto will be added to the poll.
1. MATT WIETERS - C (Baltimore)
2. DAVID PRICE - SP (Tampa Bay)
3. JASON HEYWARD - OF (Atlanta)
4. TRAVIS SNIDER - OF (Toronto)
5. MADISON BUMGARNER - SP (San Francisco)
6. COLBY RASMUS - OF (St. Louis)
7. CAMERON MAYBIN - OF (Florida)
8. TREVOR CAHILL - SP (Oakland)
9. NEFTALI FELIZ - SP (Texas)
10. MATT LAPORTA - 1B/OF/DH (Cleveland)
11. MIKE MOUSTAKAS - 3B (Kansas City)
12. TIM ALDERSON - SP (San Francisco)
13. PEDRO ALVAREZ - 3B (Pittsburgh)
14. RICK PORCELLO - SP (Detroit)
15. DEXTER FOWLER - OF (Colorado)
16. BRETT ANDERSON - SP (Oakland)*
17. DEREK HOLLAND - SP (Texas)
18. ANDREW McCUTCHEN - OF (Pittsburgh)
19. BUSTER POSEY - C (San Francisco)
20. CHRIS TILLMAN - SP (Baltimore)
21. LARS ANDERSON - 1B (Boston)
22. JUSTIN SMOAK - 1B (Texas)
23. THOMAS HANSON - SP (Atlanta)
24. ELVIS ANDRUS - SS (Texas)
25. ANGEL VILLALONA - 1B (San Francisco)
26. JHOULYS CHACIN - SP (Colorado)
27. BRIAN MATUSZ - SP (Baltimore)
28. ERIC HOSMER - 1B (Kansas City)
29. TIM BECKHAM - SS (Tampa Bay)
30. MAX RAMIREZ - C/1B (Texas)
31. JARROD PARKER - SP (Arizona)
32. MICHAEL STANTON - OF (Florida)
33. MAT GAMEL - 3B (Milwaukee)
34. JESUS MONTERO - C (New York-AL)
35. BRETT WALLACE - 3B (St. Louis)
36. JORDAN SCHAFER - OF (Atlanta)
37. WADE DAVIS - SP (Tampa Bay)
38. LOGAN MORRISON - 1B (Florida)
39. CARLOS SANTANA - C (Cleveland)
40. FERNANDO MARTINEZ - OF (New York-NL)
41. JAMES McDONALD - SP (Los Angeles-NL)
42. JEREMY HELLICKSON - SP (Tampa Bay)
43. JOSH VITTERS - 3B (Chicago-NL)
44. YONDER ALONSO - 1B (Cincinnati)
45. TAYLOR TEAGARDEN - C (Texas)
46. FREDDIE FREEMAN - 1B (Atlanta)
47. GORDON BECKHAM - SS (Chicago-AL)
48. BRETT CECIL - SP (Toronto)
49. ALCIDES ESCOBAR - SS (Milwaukee)
50. JORDAN ZIMMERMANN - SP (Washington)
51. CHRIS CARTER - 1B/DH (Oakland)
52. CARLOS TRIUNFEL - SS (Seattle)
53. AUSTIN JACKSON - OF (New York-AL)
54. BEN REVERE - OF (Minnesota)
55. MICHAEL BOWDEN - SP (Boston)
56. TYLER FLOWERS - C (Atlanta)
57. ADRIAN CARDENAS - SS (Oakland)
58. REID BRIGNAC - SS (Tampa Bay)
59. JAKE ARRIETA - SP (Baltimore)
60. JORDAN WALDEN - SP (Los Angeles-AL)
61. MICHAEL MAIN - SP (Texas)
62. WILMER FLORES - SS (New York-NL)
63. MATT DOMINGUEZ - 3B (Florida)
64. MICHAEL SAUNDERS - OF (Seattle)
65. DESMOND JENNINGS - OF (Tampa Bay)
66. CARLOS CARRASCO - SP (Philadelphia)
67. AARON CUNNINGHAM - OF (Oakland)
68. J.P. ARENCIBIA - C (Toronto)
69. GIO GONZALEZ - SP (Oakland)
70. PHILLIPPE AUMONT - SP (Seattle)
71. JEFF SAMARDZIJA - SP/RP (Chicago-NL)
72. MICHAEL INOA - SP (Oakland)
73. AARON HICKS - OF (Minnesota)
74. JEREMY JEFFRESS - SP (Milwaukee)
75. ANGEL SALOME - C (Milwaukee)
76. DANIEL CORTES - SP (Kansas City)
77. GREG HALMAN - OF (Seattle)
78. JACOB McGEE - SP/RP (Tampa Bay)
79. KYLE BLANKS - 1B (San Diego)
80. MARTIN PEREZ - SP (Texas)
81. JULIO BORBON - OF (Texas)
82. NICHOLAS WEGLARZ - OF (Cleveland)
83. JAMES SIMMONS - SP (Oakland)
84. GORKYS HERNANDEZ - OF (Atlanta)
CANDIDATES - Jose Tabata, Jason Donald, Nick Noonan, Michael Burgess, Jonathan Niese, Matt Moore, Danny Duffy, Jason Castro, Chris Perez, Aaron Poreda, Daryl Jones & Neftali Soto
TESTERS - Nick Adenhart, Scott Elbert(80-2%), Vincent Mazzaro(80-3%), Chris Coghlan(81-3%), Jeff Niemann(81-2%), Adam Miller(82-4%), Christopher Marrero(82-3%), Dellin Betances(82-2%), Andrew Lambo(83-5%), Ivan DeJesus(83-5%), Kyle Skipworth(83-6%), Kila Ka'Aihue(83-6%), David Cooper(84-2%), Michael Taylor(84-3%), Todd Frazier(84-5%), Beau Mills(84-5%) & Brad Holt(84-2%)
NOTE: I have listed by each tester the last time they were on a poll and the percentage of votes they obtained. This should help us with selecting who should be placed back on the poll etc
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Duffy!!
Great results, Lefty, above avg stuff.
by spoondoggie on
Dec 3, 2008 10:27 AM EST
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Chris Perez
I wanted to make my buddy novaoakland happy! not only that he’s probably going to be a stud closer. next up is michael burgess.
I heard Tim Lincecum will win 1 Cy Young & 11 Tim Lincecums. Question is, how many Cole Hamels will he win?
by the pinstripes on
Dec 3, 2008 11:03 AM EST
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Tabata won't make it
I have been voting for him for a while, and he is always second.
by jahs34 on
Dec 3, 2008 11:13 AM EST
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+1
….and I don’t even like him but c’mon, where is Adenhart?
by my dixie wrecked on
Dec 3, 2008 11:19 AM EST
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adenhart sucks
i have no idea where the adenhart love comes from. ba has him as the angels #1 prospect over walden which is laughable. have you even looked at his numbers? they’re not bad, they’re atrocious!
I heard Tim Lincecum will win 1 Cy Young & 11 Tim Lincecums. Question is, how many Cole Hamels will he win?
by the pinstripes on
Dec 3, 2008 11:24 AM EST
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is that final?
I can’t believe I find myself in the position of defending Adenhart, as I didn’t like him much even when he was getting tons of love on this site. However, just as some lists get way too high on tools at the expense of results, your “analysis” completely disregards tools in favor of only results. I realize you’ve made a very compelling argument, but you may want to at least consider what the scouts are saying.
This list should be more than a flavor of the week collection
by my dixie wrecked on
Dec 3, 2008 12:22 PM EST
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hey pinstripes, is this your personal list?
I wonder if it’s just a coincidence that you have repeatedly stated your opinion that “Adenhart sucks” AND you haven’t even floated his name yet. We’re on #85 and other lists have him in their top 40 or so. This list is absurd, but it matches what you think so…good job.
Not that it matters but does anybody else think he deserves a tester?
by my dixie wrecked on
Dec 3, 2008 12:40 PM EST
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Completely uncalled for
KBR and pinstripes have been more than fair throughout this whole process. This comes off as a temper tantrum. I agree that Adenhart is getting underrated here, but I think lists with him in the top 40 are overrating him as well. It’s kind of late for testers at this point I think though, with 16 spots and 28 names in the hopper. If they want to continue to add testers, I’ll second the motion on Adenhart, but there wasn’t any reason for the attack on pinstripes.
"So's your mom"-David Sloane
by gatling on
Dec 3, 2008 1:01 PM EST
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Definitely take it back
Pinstripes has frequently had opinions that differ from the list, and I’m sure he would have put Adenhart up for contention, if anyone, at any point, had made a serious push for him.
by aap212 on
Dec 3, 2008 1:23 PM EST
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ok, ok
the ‘personal list’ comment was snotty. I take it back.
by my dixie wrecked on
Dec 3, 2008 1:30 PM EST
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adenhart does suck
and should not have been top 40 last year. gave up too many hits in AA in 2007, and WAY too many hits in AAA this year. A warning for james Simmons. :). Actually, simmons at least has the high k rate.
by wobatus on
Dec 3, 2008 1:32 PM EST
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Does Adenhart suck?
Or is he a victim of being extremely aggressive promotion? The kid pitched all of 169 innings before starting 2007 in AA, he struggled a bit, but still generated groundballs and had a FIP of 4.22 at age 20 in the Texas League. Instead of letting him repeat AA and get some success under his belt/restore confidence/whatever, he was pushed to AAA with all of 350 or so pro innings. Guess what, his numbers were bad. I don’t think that it was universally expected he’d post such poor numbers, but I don’t think it’s entirely unexpected either based on his rapid climb up the ladder. Had he been handled a little more slowly/cautiously, maybe he’d have been in age appropriate leagues and his numbers would be good to great. We’ll never know, but I just don’t see writing off a 21 year old kid(now 22 as the end of August) like that.
"So's your mom"-David Sloane
by gatling on
Dec 3, 2008 1:52 PM EST
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+1
Especially when you’re being smacked in the face by scouts still being extremely high on him.
WHYDFML.
by slurve on
Dec 3, 2008 2:01 PM EST
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well, there’s only 1 top end prospect other than adenhart on that list and if you read any of the chat transcript he hardly received a glowing report. i may buy into the age relative/he was rushed theories but next year will be very telling as to what he’ll ultimately become. again, i watched him pitch and was not impressed at all. take that for what it’s worth though, probbaly not very much.
I heard Tim Lincecum will win 1 Cy Young & 11 Tim Lincecums. Question is, how many Cole Hamels will he win?
by the pinstripes on
Dec 3, 2008 2:11 PM EST
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yes, he sucks
maybe some day when he grows up he’ll be good, but he is awful now.
And why should he repeat AA? he wasn’t great last year, but he didn’t need to repeat.
I use “suck” btw in the sense of he doesn’t deserve top 100. :) But he just hasn’t performed yet.
by wobatus on
Dec 3, 2008 3:43 PM EST
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His problem wasn't giving up too many hits,
it was his putrid K/BB numbers. He completely lost his command this season.
With that said, it’s hard to see how he’s not a back-end top 100 guy, as he’s still way ahead of the curve age-wise.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
Dec 3, 2008 2:08 PM EST
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It didn't help
Paul, i know you think hits surrendered don’t matter and this is part of the james Simmons defense line, but 173 hits in 145 innings is awful. That ain’t just a few extra bloops, grounders past a diving Brandon Wood, etc.
But yes, his control was bad an k/bb was bad, and his k/bb wsn’t great in AA either and he also gave up 158 hits in 153 innings last year. It is all of a piece with “not that good, at least not yet.”
by wobatus on
Dec 3, 2008 5:06 PM EST
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ridiculous comment
this list doesn’t resemble my personal list in any way shape or form. if enough posters push for an adenhart tester then he will be added. i think kbr already stated that he’d put him on.
also, i’ve watched him pitch on a few occasions and was unimpressed. i don’t believe he’s a #1/#2 type starter and the numbers so far back that assessment up. again, those are my personal feelings which will have ZERO impact on whether or not he gets in the top 100. in fact, i’ll put him on the next poll for you. let’s see how he does.
I heard Tim Lincecum will win 1 Cy Young & 11 Tim Lincecums. Question is, how many Cole Hamels will he win?
by the pinstripes on
Dec 3, 2008 1:16 PM EST
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I already stated that Adenhart will be added to the testers list when I next do the poll (tonight)
I doubt he does well but he will be added.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on
Dec 3, 2008 2:08 PM EST
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Jason Donald until Daryl Jones comes back.
by aap212 on
Dec 3, 2008 11:21 AM EST
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jones is on the list
I went donald but jones is close to me.
by wobatus on
Dec 3, 2008 11:26 AM EST
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That's what I get for voting pre-coffee
by aap212 on
Dec 3, 2008 11:33 AM EST
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jones and donald
I have jones slightly ahead of donald as well. But voted donald because i thought he had a better chance of getting on.
by wolviex18 on
Dec 3, 2008 8:17 PM EST
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Neftali Soto
The guy just flat out hits. Need some work on drawing more walks, but has a good contact rate and lots of power.
by dougdirt on
Dec 3, 2008 11:26 AM EST
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lol
so tell me how you really feel about soto.
I heard Tim Lincecum will win 1 Cy Young & 11 Tim Lincecums. Question is, how many Cole Hamels will he win?
by the pinstripes on
Dec 3, 2008 11:33 AM EST
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Only since you asked
His bat is special. The ball jumps off of it in a different way than most. Not quite as jumpy as Jay Bruce’s bat, but on par with Juan Francisco as far as the way the ball jumps off of it. His power is absolutely legit. He uses the entire field when he hits and can hit all pitches.
This is from an email conversation I had with a scout shortly after the BA MWL Top 10 came out on Soto:
“I don’t have a clue how Soto wasn’t considered a better prospect than Lambo or Beltre other than managers in the other division hardly saw him while they saw the others more as they were in the league all season. "
"Soto doesn’t often chase pitches out of the zone, he just hits the first pitch in the zone that he sees a lot of the time because he has very strong contact skills”
“Anyone who doesn’t think that Neftali is a top end hitting prospect simply has not seen or heard him hit the baseball”
“The only problem I see with Soto is that he is already slow and if he continues to grow and put on weight and muscle he may slow down more which could eliminate him from third base”
I also want to note that the scout I am referencing is not one who works for the Reds, but for a team in the NL West. Really, for me, Soto is the best hitter in the Reds system. What puts him behind Yonder Alonso for me is the fact that Alonso can and will take a walk while Soto hasn’t yet gotten to that point, and he will never reach the Alonso level of discipline. But when it comes to using the bat to hit the baseball, no one in the Reds system is better than he is.
by dougdirt on
Dec 3, 2008 1:06 PM EST
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thanks for the post
"Soto doesn’t often chase pitches out of the zone, he just hits the first pitch in the zone that he sees a lot of the time because he has very strong contact skills"
I think the same applies to another prospect that is very controversial on this site. One Mr. J.P. Arencibia.
I heard Tim Lincecum will win 1 Cy Young & 11 Tim Lincecums. Question is, how many Cole Hamels will he win?
by the pinstripes on
Dec 3, 2008 1:20 PM EST
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How many good major leaguers fit that profile?
I’m not saying I don’t believe he has that particular skill/talent, but how many people succeed in the majors with that particular approach?
by aap212 on
Dec 3, 2008 1:25 PM EST
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answer
not very many. however, i believe he will improve. that, coupled with plus defense and prodigous raw power make me a believer in him. does he have warts? yep, sure does. in this case, i think he’s a risk worth taking. jmo
I heard Tim Lincecum will win 1 Cy Young & 11 Tim Lincecums. Question is, how many Cole Hamels will he win?
by the pinstripes on
Dec 3, 2008 1:28 PM EST
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Soto
He is gonna get my vote only after I can shift my vote over from Burgess…
You know my love is back in the Nati Doug…
by team name deleted on
Dec 3, 2008 1:44 PM EST
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Donald
Then Jones and Tabata.
What can I say, variables makes a convincing argument.
by demondeaconsbaseball on
Dec 3, 2008 11:48 AM EST
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it's the pictures, is what it is.
4th in the eastern league in batting average…as a SS
3rd in the eastern league in OPS…as a SS
1st in batting average on team USA in the olympics…as a SS
1st in OBP on team USA in the olympics…as a SS
2nd in arizona fall league in batting average…as a SS
2nd in arizona fall league in OPS…as a SS
2008 paul owens award winner (best performance as a position player in the phillies minor league system)
2008 darnell stenson award winner (best sportsmanship in the arizona fall league – make fun of this all you want, but it’s the most prestigious award given out in the AFL)
i’m gonna dougdirt this until he gets on, dude seriously needs to get on.
When they should be sacrifice bunting, they are buying effeminate designer jeans. When they should be fouling off pitches, they are masturbating. Always, they are masturbating.
by variablesdont on
Dec 3, 2008 12:28 PM EST
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donald should be on already
No matter, i just slot him in my mind in place of someone who doesn’t deserve their current rank, like, say, Martin Perez or Gio Gonzalez. :)
by wobatus on
Dec 3, 2008 12:43 PM EST
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I'm with ya
voted Perez here, but Donald is next.
Seriously – you gotta drop that list. The Olympics and AFL are not only small samples, they aren’t good sources to draw from to begin with.
by slurve on
Dec 3, 2008 1:47 PM EST
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after he gets on, i'll explain why i'm including these admittedly small samples
When they should be sacrifice bunting, they are buying effeminate designer jeans. When they should be fouling off pitches, they are masturbating. Always, they are masturbating.
by variablesdont on
Dec 3, 2008 1:54 PM EST
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+1
Have been voting Donald for a while now. Just one thing, how much faith do you honestly put in Olympic and Arizona Fall League stats. I mean, the Olympics has so much variety in competition, but most teams do not field players that are fit to play in AA or for some even A ball. Second, Arizona Fall League stats for hitters are really hard to intepret, but Donald did play very well in the league which is not a negative I guess.
by tdot mariner fan on
Dec 3, 2008 3:03 PM EST
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AFL stats
if they are of a piece with him hitting well in minors this year, hiting well in olympics, and follows up hitting well in AFL, and he has hit well his whole career, then it just seems to buttress the fact that he is a good hitter. It is when AFL stats are way disconnected from a player’s career, and also taking into account the inflationary aspect of the league, that you mostly ignore them.
by wobatus on
Dec 3, 2008 3:48 PM EST
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Good Point
It is good that he preformed well in both situations which I agree with in them being a reflection of him being a good hitter. The only thing is, I would rather not inclued them due to the problems of small sample size, as mentioned above, and weak competition/good hitting environment. I think mentioning these is like saying he was the HR for the little league world series, it is just not a premise you include in a sound argument(please do not take the comparison out of hand it is just an example).
by tdot mariner fan on
Dec 3, 2008 4:49 PM EST
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The Jury can Consider the Evidence
And weigh it as it sees fit. It is small sample, but like I said, it carried over. I certainly don’t expect tyler Flowers to OPS 1.400 in the majors either.
by wobatus on
Dec 3, 2008 5:10 PM EST
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mazzaro
AA pitcher of the yr
low to mid 90’s sinker…4 quality pitches…did very well in AA at age 21
by Asfan4ever723 on
Dec 3, 2008 12:15 PM EST
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Mazzaro > Simmons
I like Mazzaro quite a bit actually. Again, this should make nova happy.
I heard Tim Lincecum will win 1 Cy Young & 11 Tim Lincecums. Question is, how many Cole Hamels will he win?
by the pinstripes on
Dec 3, 2008 1:21 PM EST
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screw the A's
Y’all blew your wad on Simmons. :) Looks like BA likes Vinnie more. I kinda do too.
by wobatus on
Dec 3, 2008 12:37 PM EST
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+1
If an A’s prospects is put on as a tester he is going to “astonishingly” win on the first vote.
by byronlhsdrmr on
Dec 3, 2008 1:03 PM EST
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To be fair...
That used to be true of Rangers prospects, before every single Rangers prospect was put on the list.
by aap212 on
Dec 3, 2008 1:26 PM EST
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Hogwash, Mazzaro has been knocked off several times
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
Dec 3, 2008 2:10 PM EST
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In favor of James Simmons. Now Simmons is on, and Mazzero is the lone A's prospect... till he gets on and then it will be Doolittle's turn
by byronlhsdrmr on
Dec 3, 2008 5:51 PM EST
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Doolittle should already be on
Mazzaro, not so much. I’m not convinced he’s more than about #120 or so.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
Dec 3, 2008 6:55 PM EST
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Once
Mazzaro has been knocked off once, and that was when Simmons came off the list.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on
Dec 3, 2008 5:59 PM EST
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that should read "Simmons came ON the list"
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on
Dec 3, 2008 6:00 PM EST
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homophobe!!!! ;)
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on
Dec 3, 2008 6:51 PM EST
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Tester
David Huff – I think I mentioned him a while ago, but I dunno what happened
by thudean on
Dec 3, 2008 12:48 PM EST
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The problem is you’re the only one who’s mentioned him. I would have thought he was top 100 before the list came out but I don’t feel the same at this point. If he gets more support we’ll add him.
I heard Tim Lincecum will win 1 Cy Young & 11 Tim Lincecums. Question is, how many Cole Hamels will he win?
by the pinstripes on
Dec 3, 2008 1:23 PM EST
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I like Huff
he should definitely be top 100. he got ranked kinda low by one site, but his numbers are just too good to ignore.
by wobatus on
Dec 3, 2008 1:34 PM EST
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+1
should get a try as a tester, not sure how well he’d do though
by Navi's_Navy on
Dec 3, 2008 1:51 PM EST
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Leading the charge
Well, then I’ll continue to lead said charge. Maybe his name isn’t as “sexy” (as in David Huff, how bland). I mean, he put up better numbers than Simmons (who i still thoroughly disagree with), advanced to AAA at age 23/24, is a lefty with a plus changeup, with above-average control and a solid fastball (90-92). Who knows, maybe I’m crazy. He’s three years out of the draft, and already priming himself to be part of the Indian rotation. I mean, I could go on gushing, but, he needs your support!
by thudean on
Dec 3, 2008 1:52 PM EST
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Jason Castro
He’s an above-average hitter, who is patient, and has a quick swing. His power potential is average, maybe a little above. Goldstein says he has a plus arm – I think it’s a tick above-average. He has some problems with his footwork, but is a good receiver, and is very athletic for a catcher. He also has the ability to steal a bag. Castro played in short season A, and the Hawaii winter league (really fall) combining for .296 BA .438 OBP .420 SLG% .858 OPS in 216 at-bats. Castro’s XBH% was only 30% but, that is not a bad number – just not great – and his on base numbers were great. He struck out 54 times compared to 38 walks. Those are just his pro numbers. He also played for Stanford during the College World Series, and came up in the clutch in a number of instances for them – that’s when I was sold on Castro.
I think those numbers, particularly the OBP are top 100 numbers, and I think he has clearly established himself as one of the best prospects from the 2008 draft, after being immediately looked at as an overdraft. I also do not think you can undervalue what a good catcher can add to his team, especially the Astros, who have lacked one who can hit for a long time.
by byronlhsdrmr on
Dec 3, 2008 1:02 PM EST
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How was it not still an over-draft?
People’s big concern was that he was drafted ahead of Smoak. That was still a bad move.
by aap212 on
Dec 3, 2008 1:27 PM EST
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Can't cry over spilt milk
Castro isn’t a worse prospect because he was overdrafted, though maybe Ed Wade is a worse GM.
However, I don’t really see how the ~#20 talent in the most recent draft makes a top 100. The pro ball #s are far too small to say anything.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
Dec 3, 2008 2:13 PM EST
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Aaron Poreda
Still not too old at 22, and over the past two seasons he has only given up 6 HR in 180 IP between high A and AA with over a 3:1 K:BB rate. His strikeout rate increased from 2007 to 2008, and there have been reports he could be on the major league club at some point in 2009. Not the highest upside, but I like him alot and he is close.
by Navi's_Navy on
Dec 3, 2008 1:27 PM EST
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actually
i think he has significant upside.
I heard Tim Lincecum will win 1 Cy Young & 11 Tim Lincecums. Question is, how many Cole Hamels will he win?
by the pinstripes on
Dec 3, 2008 1:29 PM EST
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+1
Poreda is one of about five or six guys that I think should already be on the poll-Jones, Perez, Donald, Neimann, and Skipworth all belong on here already, and I could see a case made for Todd Frazier or Burgess as well.
"So's your mom"-David Sloane
by gatling on
Dec 3, 2008 1:44 PM EST
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well
if he didn’t have upside he wouldn’t be on a top 100 prospect list, but when you look at other guys like Soto/Burgess/Tabata (who I would probably have going after Poreda) I think his upside is more limited. Quite frankly I take him over Simmons, and I’m a huge fan of Simmons (maybe not that huge considering I hadn’t voted for him)
I don’t think he ever develops a third pitch and that is why I believe his upside is low. Sure, if he develops a third pitch then he has tremendous upside, but with that logic you could say that David Price could develop a fourth and fifth pitch and be the best pitcher in his era, but its so unlikely that he will develop more pitches when his change-up still needs work that you can’t factor that in.
A two pitch pitcher (despite the fact that those pitches should be very good) that seemingly is going to remain a starter (his control and lack of home runs in the minors are good signs) aren’t as great upside-wise as a Jose Tabata whose immaturity seems to be the one biggest barrier.
by Navi's_Navy on
Dec 3, 2008 1:46 PM EST
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Sure, if he develops a third pitch then he has tremendous upside, but with that logic you could say that David Price could develop a fourth and fifth pitch and be the best pitcher in his era, but its so unlikely that he will develop more pitches when his change-up still needs work that you can’t factor that in.
i’m not quite seeing how this comparison makes sense. i think it’s perfectly fine to say you think poreda will only be a reliever with his two pitches; i’m not sure, however, that him developing an adequate changeup is “so unlikely” as to be ridiculous.
JERRY OWENS
by larry on
Dec 3, 2008 1:52 PM EST
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the david price comparison is pretty much becaues of similar size (Poreda is a little bulkier but shorter, but similar) with similar repetoires. Price developed his change-up before coming to the majors, and while it still needs refining it is at least useable at the major league level.
Poreda, on the other hand, has yet to refine his slider, and I feel that at 22 and with talks about him geting to the majors by mid 2009 that he will never get an adequate chance to develop a change-up.
by Navi's_Navy on
Dec 3, 2008 4:47 PM EST
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i think i was getting more to the developing two more pitches part
that seems outlandish. far more outlandish than a guy being able to throw a mediocre curveball.
this post is subject to revision based upon whatever colin says the HBT annual has to say on the topic discussed.
by larry on
Dec 3, 2008 4:59 PM EST
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curveball = changeup
this post is subject to revision based upon whatever colin says the HBT annual has to say on the topic discussed.
by larry on
Dec 3, 2008 5:16 PM EST
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Daryl Jones
No love for a 5-tool CF?
The Dodgers won't win a playoff series until the Cool-a-Coo returns.
by mckeeno on
Dec 3, 2008 1:37 PM EST
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Nick "What-happened-to-the-love?" Noonan
Really. I don’t think he deserves on now or ever (I’m low on him if you couldn’t tell), but it seemed he would get on here soon, but now, 150 votes into the poll, he is in danger of falling out.
by Navi's_Navy on
Dec 3, 2008 1:49 PM EST
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West Coast
The west coast vote will start rolling in soon.
by eastin on
Dec 3, 2008 1:54 PM EST
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Let him fall!
back down to the place where guys who dont take a walk go
by alskor on
Dec 3, 2008 2:11 PM EST
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and...
has way, way more upside as a catcher with 30hr potential. If Arencibia hits .270/.300/.460 with good defense, he’s a very valuable player. If he improves his discipline, he’s an all-star.
by slamcactus on
Dec 3, 2008 5:39 PM EST
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and is a catcher!
and I hated him there and argued vehemently against him!
by alskor on
Dec 3, 2008 5:49 PM EST
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All of his support was from ballot stuffing
It’s easy to tell the guys who are getting illicit support— normally a guy’s vote percentage increases pretty steadily. If it’s yawing all over the place, he’s getting an unfair bump.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
Dec 3, 2008 2:14 PM EST
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Yawn
I am Cameron Wood and this is my son and business partner CW Culberson.
by camwoody on
Dec 3, 2008 3:13 PM EST
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give us case for noonan
that is not dependent on you knowing who he is and post all day on niners nation, mcovey chronicles, etc.
You wanna know why I ask? because noonan’s stats absolutely rot, he ain’t all that highly touted, and the one case I saw made for him was from someone who admitted he was just a personal favorite.
You vote for lots of different team players, all well and good, and i am sure you really think noonan belongs, and not saying you are stuffing, but I am pretty sure 9/10ths of the people on this site would vote for him NOT to make the top 100.
Anyway, paulThomas is right. Noonan’s support was non-vocal and inconsistent, and SF fans have obviously stuffed on this poll.
And i know, everyone says its a community poll, big deal. And it ain’t a big deal. And since it IS just a community poll, and no big deal, why do folks insist on screwing with it?
by wobatus on
Dec 3, 2008 3:38 PM EST
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Yeah...
I’d really love to hear from the Noonan supporters what they think his upside is. To rank a player with his lack of polish, you usually need to believe there’s some serious star potential there, and I have a really hard time seeing it.
by slamcactus on
Dec 3, 2008 3:50 PM EST
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I really don't have the time or the desire to argue about Noonan with you guys.
You can hate him as a prospect, simply not like him, or like him but only as a friend. I really don’t care. I find it terribly tiring and saddening that these polls have turned into a forum for complaining about west coast ballot stuffing or whatever conspiracy you think is harming their accuracy. I am really bored by it.
I am going to go back to “posting all day on niners nation, mcovey (sp) chronicles, etc.” because those blogs are actually interesting. I hope you guys enjoy beating that horse of yours.
I am Cameron Wood and this is my son and business partner CW Culberson.
by camwoody on
Dec 3, 2008 4:42 PM EST
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All they wanted was a case for Noonan
And you posted twice about how you were above that, while no one made a good case for him. Stay classy, Giants fans.
by aap212 on
Dec 3, 2008 4:47 PM EST
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Seriously...
All I want to know is what you think his upside is, because I really don’t see where you’re coming from if you think he’s an elite prospect.
I don’t have some kind of personal hatred for the guy, I just don’t get it.
by slamcactus on
Dec 3, 2008 4:53 PM EST
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Tiring and saddening
I’ll tell ya what’s tiring and saddening….
F’ it. No big deal, camwoody. Think it hits a little close to home for you. You voted for him. Fair enough. I was just busting your chops because you evidently are a big bay area sports fan. I am a big Mets fan and think Jefry Marte should make the list, so what do I know? :)
by wobatus on
Dec 3, 2008 4:54 PM EST
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I was more responding to the complaining over ballot stuffing.
I really enjoy the debating of prospects aspect of this blog but that has mostly taken a back seat to posts regarding the conspiracy plotted by Giants fans to ruin everything this blog stands for.
I am a big Bay Area sports fan and proud of it like I am sure most other posters are proud NY sports fans or proud Chicago sports fans or proud LA sports fans (gasp!). So, Wobatus, it did hit close to home literally but in no way was I offended.
I like Noonan but understand that he has his warts and that his chances of reaching the bigs let alone sticking are slim. I will say though that a slick fielding 2b with 10-15hr power and 20-30sb potential is a valuable player. Those numbers are most definitely his ceiling and chances are great that he will flame out before that. Andrew Baggarly, the Giants beat writer for the Merc and BA says that he has the best eye of all the Giants prospects and the most ability to hit for average (this may be a condemnation of all Giants hitting prospects though). I have also read in BA Q&As that he has Chase Utley with a little less power upside (can not find the link though). So yeah, I like him. I would probably put him in the bottom half of my Giants top 10.
Bumgarner
Posey
Alderson
Villalona
Gillaspie
Noonan
Sosa
Ishikawa
Kieschnick
Fairley
In summation, I apologize if my distain for posters like Slurve and PaulThomas has caused me to be terse with other posters. That was not my intent.
Here are the links to the 10-15hr potential, Utley comp and the Baggs info:
http://www.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/events/draft_report/y2007/index.jsp?mc=noonan
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/ask-ba/2008/265710.html
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/printer/p265340.html
I am Cameron Wood and this is my son and business partner CW Culberson.
by camwoody on
Dec 3, 2008 7:37 PM EST
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All I can say is
opposites attract and like charges repel. You’re no bowl of cherries yourself sir – grab a mirror.
by slurve on
Dec 3, 2008 7:49 PM EST
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It will go on the "To-do" list
I am Cameron Wood and this is my son and business partner CW Culberson.
by camwoody on
Dec 3, 2008 7:58 PM EST
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Chase Utley?
Ahahahahahahahahaahahahahahahahhahahaahahahahahhahahahhahahah.
Ahahahahahhaahahhahahhahaaahahahahahahhhahahhahahahahah.
[deep breath]
Ahahahahhahahahahahahaaahahahhahhahaahahhahhahhahahahahahhah.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
Dec 3, 2008 8:00 PM EST
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Yes, please tell me when your next Baseball America piece is due out.
I am Cameron Wood and this is my son and business partner CW Culberson.
by camwoody on
Dec 3, 2008 8:04 PM EST
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Alderson
I have him on my fantasy team. Was a little surprised he was 12 on this list, but I’ll take it.
I know a guy who knows a guy who has bobby richardson’s glove that caught mccovey’s line drive. BTW. :)
by wobatus on
Dec 3, 2008 10:41 PM EST
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Even though I was not alive and wouldn't be for 20 years...
that was mean and I am mad at you.
I am Cameron Wood and this is my son and business partner CW Culberson.
by camwoody on
Dec 3, 2008 10:57 PM EST
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Re: Alderson
yeah he probably shouldn’t be that high but a kid who pitches so well in the CAL league deserves some props. It will be interesting to see how he does next year in Conn. Dodd kills hitters so we may see a repeat performance.
I am Cameron Wood and this is my son and business partner CW Culberson.
by camwoody on
Dec 3, 2008 11:01 PM EST
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Chris Perez
The guy was closing in his rookie season. Likely to have a career at the back end of the bullpen. Should already be on the list.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on
Dec 3, 2008 2:10 PM EST
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i'll take a stab at this
because he has the most votes?
I heard Tim Lincecum will win 1 Cy Young & 11 Tim Lincecums. Question is, how many Cole Hamels will he win?
by the pinstripes on
Dec 3, 2008 3:33 PM EST
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Ironically...
this is the only response that could make logical sense. An argument of why Tabata should win based on talent or performance would cause a violent, sucking vortex of logic from which not even light could escape.
by DrunkIrish on
Dec 3, 2008 5:39 PM EST
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Holland
Q: Dee from Austin asks:
Cahill/Anderson are better than Feliz/Holland?
A: Ben Badler: Yeah, and I don’t think that one’s that close either. I like Feliz, but I think Holland is more of a solid prospect than a great one.
Dewey is gonna blow a gasket!
I heard Tim Lincecum will win 1 Cy Young & 11 Tim Lincecums. Question is, how many Cole Hamels will he win?
by the pinstripes on
Dec 3, 2008 5:17 PM EST
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That's not exactly a bold statement
I think pretty much everyone outside of this website feels that way – including me. He’s my third or fourth ranked Rangers pitching prospect at best.
by alskor on
Dec 3, 2008 5:51 PM EST
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Of course
I do expect him to fly up the charts next year… but until he does it I cant in good conscience put him above Feliz, Main, etc…
by alskor on
Dec 3, 2008 5:52 PM EST
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Sigh
It’s a little goofy how this site overrates Holland. I like the guy, but Dewey used to compare him to Scott Kazmir. When Kazmir was Holland’s age, he’d been in the majors for more than a year.
by aap212 on
Dec 3, 2008 6:04 PM EST
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age not that big a deal for pitchers
I think Holland is better than Anderson. Can understand the argument either way. Holland had a freakish leap up this year, but the numbers in AA, including the playoffs, and the reports of his uptick velocity, etc., has me sold. Gonna be fun to see how these guys do this year.
Rangers and As have great pitching prospects, D-Rays too, and although I don’t know much about the jints below bumgarner and alderson, they are good enough on their own.
by wobatus on
Dec 3, 2008 6:55 PM EST
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forgot the o's
tillman, matusz and arrieta
by wobatus on
Dec 3, 2008 6:56 PM EST
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what?
holland has accomplished a lot more than main. i’m not saying main won’t be better but that wasn’t a good example.
I heard Tim Lincecum will win 1 Cy Young & 11 Tim Lincecums. Question is, how many Cole Hamels will he win?
by the pinstripes on
Dec 3, 2008 7:18 PM EST
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Actually, the question in the last Ask BA dealt with how I compared three specific lefty/righty pairs of prospects to one another, not which I thought was the best in baseball. There was some confusion, leading to several emails like this one, so here we go with my top 10 lefty/right duos (considering only one pair per organization):
1. David Price/Wade Davis, Rays
Yes, Tampa Bay’s pitching is going to get even better.
2. Derek Holland/Neftali Feliz, Rangers
Just 17 months ago, Holland was in junior college and Feliz was a Brave.
3. Brett Anderson/Trevor Cahill, Athletics
Both were lights out in Double-A and Olympians at age 20.
4. Brian Matusz/Chris Tillman, Orioles
Matusz was the best pitcher in the 2008 draft; Tillman was part of the Erik Bedard heist.
5. Madison Bumgarner/Tim Alderson, Giants
The 2007 first-round picks each won full-season ERA titles as 19-year-olds.
6. Cole Rohrbough/Tommy Hanson, Braves
They’re two examples of how well Atlanta mastered the draft-and-follow process.
7. Ross Detwiler/Jordan Zimmermann, Nationals
They’re the two best arm from Washington’s pitching-heavy 2007 draft crop.
8. Sean West/Ryan Tucker, Marlins
West has rebounded from labrum surgery; Tucker could be Florida’s future closer.
9. Franklin Morales/Jhoulys Chacin, Rockies
Both had stunning years, though Morales was as disappointing as Chacin was surprising.
10. Casey Crosby/Rick Porcello, Tigers
Crosby is rebounding from Tommy John surgery, while Porcello won the FSL ERA title.
Its just the difference between Badler who does the A’s list and Jim Calis who does most of group top 100 compilation. When Cali and Manual say it be more inclined to listen.
Jim Callis Executive Editor Prospects, Draft
Ben Badler Assistant Editor International/Olympics
by laxtonto on
Dec 3, 2008 6:03 PM EST
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Donald
Niese, Jones, Perez, Poreda, Tabata, Castro, Burgess, Soto, Mazzaro, Marrero, Kila, Frazier, Mills, Holt & Adenhart
by METSMETSMETS on
Dec 3, 2008 5:26 PM EST
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Daryl Jones
Peak Davenport Translations:
From the FSL .316/.396/.494
Texas League .271/.397/.496
With plus basestealing, and solid OF defense.
Oh, and the above Translations are based on Jones’ being 21 this year—if he were one week younger, he’d have been just 20 in “baseball years”, as he was born in very late June, 1987. Looks like a Markakis/Granderson synthesis, and that’s a top 30-40 prospect, if not much higher.
by Mekonsrock on
Dec 3, 2008 5:50 PM EST
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donald
but a lot of deserving “shoulda been on a long time ago” guys left. Jones, Poreda, Skipworth. I like Huff, Taylor, Burgess, Dejesus, Soto, Kila, Mazzaro and Moore too. After that it gets tougher for me how to round off the top 100.
by wobatus on
Dec 3, 2008 7:13 PM EST
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