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New Blog: Sounder At Heart for Seattle Sounders Fans!

Orioles top 10 prospects on my site

I need feedback/visitors for:  http://sandbergzoo.blogspot.com/

I think people will think Tillman is wayyyyy to low, but I have my beliefs. I made this blog about 3 minutes ago, and I have planned this list for awhile. 

Next on my list will be the Red Sox, followed by the White Sox, Indians, etc

 

 

I will do all 30 teams.

I will also finally end it with my big 100 top MLB prospect list

So, visit sandbergzoo.blogspot.com to see my list, and don't be scared to post a response. 

 

0 recs  |  Comment 35 comments

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Tillman

I really would like to see an explanation for how he is a C+.

by supermets on Dec 28, 2008 4:22 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

+1

Yeah, I’m really curious to hear the basis for “before 2008 he was no good”.

"So's your mom"-David Sloane

by gatling on Dec 28, 2008 4:35 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Orioles Top 20

Different blog and I promise, Tillman’s much better than a C+

www.thebaseballuniverse.blogspot.com

www.thebaseballuniverse.blogspot.com

by prestonb1291 on Dec 28, 2008 4:36 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Much better list

than the other one. The grades are a little too high though, IMO.

by supermets on Dec 28, 2008 4:44 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Not difficult

to be better than a list that gives Tillman a C+…

by supermets on Dec 28, 2008 4:49 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

That's your blog though

I remember you talking about it.

An A-?!!!???

You even mentioned his control issues. Hello??? 65 walks. This hype is a joke. Tillman? LOL

by Matt Rox on Dec 28, 2008 4:45 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Tillman

I would have him at B+, but an A- isn’t that far away.

by supermets on Dec 28, 2008 4:50 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Here's why:

His stats before 2008:

2006 ERA: 5.23
2007 ERA: 4.84

I just don’t get all the hype!

by Matt Rox on Dec 28, 2008 4:37 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

...

He has incredible stuff. ERA isn’t the only way to judge pitchers, especially prospects.

by supermets on Dec 28, 2008 4:43 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Stuff

You do know that stuff has nothing to do with the number of walks you have. He has great stuff(meaning the pitches he throws). His control is an issue, but his stuff is not.

by supermets on Dec 28, 2008 4:51 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

His walk rate also declined each month

with the exception of July. This improvement is very positive. In August, for example, the last month of the year, he pitched 35.2 IP and struck out 51 batters while walking only 11. As ERA is apparently an important stat for you, he only gave up 7 ERs, giving him an ERA just below 1.80.

Other than that it seems like the only non-ERA stat that you care about is walks, you also seem to not be at all interested in age relative to league. Yes, Tillman got beat up the previous two years, but he was also pitching against much older competition. In 2007, for example, he had a 3.55 ERA (and barely 3 walks per 9 innings) in A ball at age 19. When he was promoted to A+ ball at 19, by far the youngest pitcher at that level, he got knocked around. That Tillman was able to not simply survive, but excel (with a 3.18 ERA) in AA at age 20, the youngest player at the level, is astounding.

TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems

by OldProspects on Dec 29, 2008 12:59 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Plus

ERA isn’t the best way to judge ANY pitcher.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Jan 2, 2009 11:44 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

ERA

is a horrible way to try and judge prospects. He has tremendous scouting reports, has excellent stuff(the K rate is evidence of that), plus he just pitched very well in AA at age 20. He’s a B+ prospect without much question. And yes, the other guy’s list is better, even if he does have Tillman/Arrieta/Patton one notch too high on the grading scale.

"So's your mom"-David Sloane

by gatling on Dec 28, 2008 4:49 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

ERA is the best way

Runs allowed means a lot to baseball, everyone knows that.

I guess fans on this site don’t quite understand the mediocracy of Tillman

by Matt Rox on Dec 28, 2008 4:57 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Wow

Clearly you know absolutely nothing about scouting.

by supermets on Dec 28, 2008 5:00 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

No man, it's not

ERA isn’t a stat that reflects solely on the pitcher, which is what you need to use to accurately evaluate pitchers. ERA is effected by the defense behind you, which is notoriously poor in the minors. Try using FIP, it helps you understand how well a pitcher pitched, regardless of how well his fielders fielded. Tillman had a FIP’s of 4.73, 4.29, and 3.57 the last three years. If you use a site like minorleaguesplits.com you can normalize for luck and park as well. Don’t be afraid of using new and better metrics instead of relying on things like ERA.

"So's your mom"-David Sloane

by gatling on Dec 28, 2008 5:03 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

This

And especially for minor leaguers, scouting reports>FIP>ERA

by supermets on Dec 28, 2008 5:04 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I don't know what FIP is, but

you said: “ERA is effected by the defense behind you”

EARNED run average.

by Matt Rox on Dec 28, 2008 5:33 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

,,,

Still affected by the defense. In case you didn’t realize, the defense can hurt you without making errors.

by supermets on Dec 28, 2008 5:40 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Oh my

Look, just because a play isn’t scored as an error in the minors doesn’t mean it wasn’t a makeable play. The overall quality of defense in the minors is poor, guys with little to no range, bad reads/jumps, etc. These aren’t things that would be scored as errors necessarily, but it also doesn’t mean that an average or better defender wouldn’t turned that hit into an out. Because of the poor defense and the effect it can have on a pitcher’s ERA in the minors, you really shouldn’t use ERA to judge prospects. FIP is Fielding Independent Pitching, look it up at The Hardball Times, see if you can understand it better there, since using part of their description(it helps you understand how well a pitcher pitched, regardless of how well his fielders fielded) obviously didn’t help enough.

"So's your mom"-David Sloane

by gatling on Dec 28, 2008 5:43 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Reminds me of

“The fundamentals of the economy are strong…”

--Pablo Zevallos of yankeesfuture.wordpress.com

by Pablo Zevallos on Dec 28, 2008 8:15 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

ERA

How come Charlie Zink isn’t a B or better on your Red Sox prospect list? He had a 2.84 ERA in AAA this year! Looks like an ace to me!

http://rswanzey.blogspot.com

by rswanzey on Dec 28, 2008 11:36 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

He was a second rounder, he wasn't even a top overall/1st round pick

I really think this site and a few other overrate him (by a bunch)

by Matt Rox on Dec 28, 2008 4:40 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Development

A lot of second rounders develop. One great example is Pedroia.

www.thebaseballuniverse.blogspot.com

by prestonb1291 on Dec 28, 2008 4:56 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

But

I’m still gonna flow your blog. It’s always interesting to hear a differing opinion.

www.thebaseballuniverse.blogspot.com

by prestonb1291 on Dec 28, 2008 4:59 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

+1

I like Tillman more than a C+, but I still think he is being overrated by many sites. I want to see more durability out of him, and less walks. Averaging less than 5 innings a start means there is a good chance you end up in the bully… at least to me it does.

"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile

by Boxkutter on Dec 28, 2008 5:15 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Didn't we

determine during the Community list that Tillman was on a lower pitch count or something, and that led to quite a few 5 inning starts, or am I imagining it? He went 6 innings in 5 of his final 6 starts this year. I’m guessing the walks pushed the pitch count up to where he couldn’t go past the 5th inning too often. I’m not excusing it, because he really does need to cut down the walks to be really effective, but it seems like a cause and effect thing to me. If it was a conditioning/stamina issue, I’d be more concerned. But a 20 year old kid pitching in AA has plenty of time to get the walks under control, especially when he has the stuff/scouting reports to back up the “hype”.

"So's your mom"-David Sloane

by gatling on Dec 28, 2008 5:29 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Are you saying that only first rounders are capable of being top prospects?

Tillman has great stuff and is 20 years old. Who cares about 2006 and 2007? He was only 18 and 19! This kid has great potential and is not overrated.

by Orioles77 on Dec 28, 2008 9:54 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Yes

If only Albert Pujols would have been picked in the first round, maybe he could have amounted to something

TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems

by OldProspects on Dec 29, 2008 1:00 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Chris Ray

Any thoughts on his rehab/comeback?

by StickRat on Dec 29, 2008 12:39 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

re: Ray

For fantasy purposes?

Details on his comeback: last I heard (about a month ago) he was well ahead of schedule and in good shape. Not sure about his throwing program…

by cowboy4eva on Dec 29, 2008 3:54 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Haha. No, I’m not a fantasy guy. Sorry to laugh, but that’s been kinda well documented around here. Thanks for the info.

by StickRat on Dec 29, 2008 4:20 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

oh o.k

he actually pitched a couple minor league games at the end of last season so things look good for his progress

by cowboy4eva on Dec 30, 2008 5:36 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

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