Los Angeles Dodgers Top 20 Prospects for 2009
by John Sickels on Dec 28, 2008 2:00 PM EST
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One in a long line of Mr. Albuquerques.
All grades are EXTREMELY PRELIMINARY and subject to change. Don’t get too worried about exact rankings at this point, especially once you get out of the top 10. Grade C+/C guys are pretty interchangeable depending on what you are looking for.
1) James McDonald, RHP, Grade B+: Same grade I gave him last year, see no reason to change it given his strong season. Only concern is fly ball tendency.
2) Ethan Martin, RHP, Grade B: Higher ceiling than McDonald but need to see how he adjusts to pro ball. Impressive power arm plus athleticism.
3) Ivan DeJesus, Jr, SS, Grade B: Took a step forward offensively, good glove, just needs to cut down on errors and get more consistent. I think his difficult Arizona Fall League was an aberration.
4) Andrew Lambo, OF, Grade B: Not sure about the glove, but the bat looks quite strong to me.
5) Josh Lindblom, RHP, Grade B-: Rapid riser from the college ranks, could help in the bullpen quickly.
6) Devaris Gordon, SS, Grade B-: I am giving him an aggressive grade. He’s raw, but immensely talented. I don’t think he is Preston Mattingly.
7) Ramon Troncoso, RHP, Grade C+: Love the ground ball/power combination. Hope he throws strikes. Hasn’t broken 50 innings yet so still eligible for the book.
8) Scott Elbert, LHP, Grade C+: This might be a notch too low, but command and durability issues are still there.
9) Austin Gallagher, 3B, Grade C+: Sleeper prospect. Needs to tighten strike zone, but I think more power will come.
10) Josh Bell, 3B, Grade C+: Making progress, but reports about weight are disturbing and he might not hit enough for first base.
11) Xavier Paul, OF, Grade C+: Should be a very solid fourth outfielder.
12) Chris Withrow, RHP, Grade C+: Need to make sure he is healthy. Ceiling is high but so is risk.
13) Justin Miller, RHP, Grade C+: Like the hard sinker, but needs to improve secondary pitches to boost K-rate.
14) Tony Delmonico, 2B, Grade C+: Polished college hitter, making transition from SS to 2B. Needs to reduce errors.
15) Pedro Baez, 3B, Grade C: Excellent power potential and a strong arm, but there is a 43.7% chance (to pull a number out of the air) that he is pitching four years from now. Horrible plate discipline.
16) Jaime Hoffman, OF, Grade C: Another guy like Paul who would make a good reserve OF.
17) Jesus Castillo, RHP, Grade C: Added to the 40-man. Good control, not a dominant type.
18) Kyle Russell, OF, Grade C: Enormous power potential, but strikeouts are scary.
19) Nathan Eovaldi, RHP, Grade C: Possible steal from 2008 draft, high ceiling, needs experience.
20) Javy Guerra, RHP, Grade C: Good arm, fits better in the pen than he did as a starter.
Others: James Adkins, LHP; Geison Aguasviva, LHP; Danny Danielson, RHP; Victor Garate, LHP; Thomas Giles, OF; Steve Johnson, RHP; Paul Koss, RHP; Lucas May, C; Justin Orenduff, RHP; Jaime Pedroza, 2B-SS; Jordan Pratt, RHP; Jon Michael Redding, RHP (a sleeper), Travis Schlicting, RHP; Cole St. Clair, LHP; Josh Wall, RHP.
The Grade Cs are interchangeable. As usual, don’t sweat so much about where the Grade C+/C types rank exactly on this list. After I get past the top 10 I don’t worry so much about exact placement, since I’m trying to concentrate on the book right now. Some of the Grade C guys could be C+ in the book, and vice versa. I can probably fit one more player in, so make a suggestion if you like.
SYSTEM IN BRIEF
The Dodgers system has thinned out a lot, and actually looks a bit weak right now, though I trust Logan White and his people to recharge quickly.
Ethan Martin has the most impact ability, but given the attrition rate for young pitchers, I want to see how he adjusts to pro ball. McDonald’s ceiling is not as high, but I can’t in good conscience lower his grade from last year. I think he will be a solid pitcher as long as he doesn’t get traded to
I’m giving Gordon an aggressive B-,which I guess may surprise some people used to more conservative ratings from me. There are quite a few arms here who have bullpen potential…Troncoso and Elbert close to the Show, plus several others further away.
Some of the Grade C guys at the lower levels have the potential to get higher grades once they prove themselves more fully, and this system could look much deeper a year from now.
Full reports on these guys and over 1,000 others can be found in the 2009 Baseball Prospect Book. Pre-order for January 31st shipping now!
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Elbert
I would move his grade to a B-. Before he got hurt he was arguably the best LHP prospect in the minors. He has great strikeout rates and even if he does not improve his control, he should be an effective arm at the back of the bullpen. If he does get the walks under control then he has the upside to be a frontline #2 starter.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Dec 28, 2008 8:45 PM EST reply actions
Agreed
injury concerns aside, Elbert has the ability to be a very servicable starting pitcher in the bigs, the C+ ranking is a little absurd for a talent this elite
I've got a McPheever, and only JoJo Reyes can help me!
by Buzz Bissinger on Dec 28, 2008 9:19 PM EST up reply actions
elbert
Throwing strikes and staying healthy are talents in themselves. I will consider B- but I can’t see higher than that given his track record.
by John Sickels on Dec 28, 2008 9:43 PM EST up reply actions
B-
That would be the perfect grade for Elbert in my opinion. It shows that while he has tremendous upside, it is tempered with significant risk factors.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Dec 29, 2008 1:41 AM EST up reply actions
-1
I don’t know, this seems like a weird angle to take. I thought the whole idea of prospecting was to project a player’s ability to contribute to a major league team, not to quantify his current talents. Of course current talents are one gauge for projecting a player’s ability to contribute, but it’s not everything. Throwing strikes and staying healthy (things I can do, for instance) aren’t alone talents that’ll allow a pitcher to have a solid major league career. The question is: what specific information do we have that will let us gauge whether Elbert will be able to develop better control and/or maintain some health. That is, are the conditions there for him to get to that point? It’s not like health or control are stand alone talents you either have or don’t.
It’s those specifics, usually only perceivable through scout’s eyes, that cause me to spend my money on KG and BA alone these days for prospect info, though I still come through here mostly for the diaries (and the fact that I spend half my day taking care of my 11 month old, and need a break from peek-a-boo). I’ve just grown increasingly unimpressed with John’s analysis . . . I know you’re probably just trying to encourage participation, but when you ask your readers whether or not a guy should be given a higher or lower grade, it makes me wonder why I should spend money on the book . . . . maybe I’m just cranky this morning.
IMO
I think you are seriously undervaluing John’s analysis.
He has an excellent track record and reputation when it comes to prospects.
He might not have the resources of BA or BP, but there is nothing lacking in John’s knowledge.
Now raise your goblet of rock. It's a toast to those who rock!
Dumb
Obviously, if John’s marking Elbert down for health and strikethrowing, he thinks they will inhibit his “ability to contribute to a major league team.” Those two problems have derailed so many players over the years, that I am mostly just confused by your critique.
Huh?
One very good indication of how good Elbert’s control will be is how good it is now. Sure it could improve, but any prospect’s control could improve. That Elbert’s is currently sub-par is notable to understanding how strong of a prospect he is. John was being a little glib referring to staying healthy as a talent, but surely having gotten injured so often is suggestive that Elbert might have trouble remaining healthy in the future. I really don’t know what you’re complaining about here.
In terms of asking for help, all those guys take advice from people who comment – John is just nice enough to ask
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This Is Nonsense
Elbert “injured so often?” He has had a total of ONE injury since he was drafted in 2004. One. An injury that required that his shoulder be cleaned out. When the surgery occurred the doctors checked his labrum and rotator cuff and determined there were no tears. Only some tissue around the labrum had to be removed. And there have been no elbow problems to speak of. Thus Elbert’s bill of health is completely clean.
John
Does Gallagher have a chance to stay at 3rd?
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
eh....
Maybe….I think probably he moves eventually. But I understand leaving him there as long as possible.
by John Sickels on Dec 28, 2008 10:08 PM EST up reply actions
The Dodgers system has thinned out a lot…
Yes it has… How come the Dodgers always get a pass on pitching prospects? It seems like every year the Dodgers have “one of the top pitching prospects in baseball,” and it’s a different guy. Other than Billingsly, none of them have panned out.
That Kershaw guy, too
His 8.36 K/9 was far better than Billingsley’s 2006 debut and Kershaw was a year younger.
Barring anything unforseen, he’ll be in the rotation the entire year as a 21-year-old. Pretty impressive, if you ask me.
by silverwidow on Dec 29, 2008 12:41 AM EST up reply actions
very short sighted comment
greg miller and edwin jackson i will give you…thought some think the latter still has his uses. besides bills and kershaw who have been the dodger’s number #1 pitching prospect the last 5 years or so, you have elbert who still has a chance to have a good major league impact, james mcdonald who’s poised to grab a starting spot, chris withrow and ethan martin who have fresh and talented arms (although granted, no results yet). plus don’t forget broxton began as a starter as well—-he has ‘panned out’ as well. the dodgers have to be allowed a somewhat longer timetable to assess success with their pitching prospects because they draft so high school heavy. it takes at least 2-3 years to reach the majors and even then injury and other issues slow development (such is the case with mcdonald and will be with withrow as well).
Dodger Pitching Prospects Not Named Billingsley
Let’s see:
Edwin Jackson — Starter whole regular season for the AL team that went to the World Series.
Joel Hanrahan — Closer for Washington Nationals.
Jonathan Broxton — Very good set-up man for all three MLB seasons; probably will be Dodgers’ closer in 2009.
Hong-Chih Kuo — Possibly the best non-closer left-handed reliever in MLB.
Cory Wade — Great MLB season in 2008.
Clayton Kershaw — Makes majors two years out of high school; at age 20, youngest player in MLB in 2008, and did very well for his age and level of experience.
Ramon Troncoso — Looked good in Dodger bullpen in 2008; combination of high strikeouts and severe groundball tendencies puts him in select company in baseball.
Wesley Wright — Taken by Astros in last year’s Rule 5 draft; managed to stick the whole season in the Astros’ pen and be useful despite probably needing another season in minors.
Scott Proctor — Traded to Yankees and became a set-up man for Joe Torre.
Scott Elbert — Made majors in 2008; great fastball/slider combo; can definitely miss bats.
Eric Stults — Has been good for Dodgers when called up; needs to be given full-time job in the majors.
Franquelis Osoria — Pitched as reliever for Pirates after they got him on waivers from Dodgers.
So counting Billingsley, that is 13 pitchers the Dodgers’ farm system has put in the majors in the last five years. What other team’s has done as well, or better, producing MLB pitchers in the same time span? I am not saying there isn’t one, or more than one — I would really be interested to know.
by CanuckDodger on Dec 29, 2008 1:11 AM EST up reply actions
Forgot Somebody...
And of course I forgot James McDonald. Looked great for the Dodgers in 2008, even in the NLCS under pressure. So that is 14 pitchers the Dodger farm system has put in the majors in five years.
by CanuckDodger on Dec 29, 2008 1:15 AM EST up reply actions
Your definition of “major league pitcher” notwithstanding, it’s still an impressive list.
by Lunkwill Fook on Dec 29, 2008 9:41 AM EST up reply actions
We need to keep in mind the very high standard...
…that the majors really are. To be productive to any degree in the majors is an accomplishment. True, when you’re talking about elite pitching prospects, you’re thinking starter but, after you factor in attrition rates and unpredictable mis-adjustment periods so many other organizations go thru with transitioning minorleaguers to the majors, this is a very good showing. Out of this group if you had, say, 2-3 eventual All-Stars then that would be an extremely impressive bunch. Right now I’d say there’s a good chance of that in Billingsley and Kershaw.
Broxton too.
He should be a closer eventually.
Well...
The Dodgers signed Proctor 11 years ago. I would imagine plenty of teams in the majors could come up with a equally or more impressive list than this if we’re counting guys who were signed 11 years ago and debuted with another club. JJ Putz, Rafael Soriano, Felix Hernandez, Brandon Morrow, George Sherrill, Ryan Rowland-Smith and Matt Thorton come to mind as just a few of the homegrown Mariners over the last few years. Too many filler guys a la Osoria and Stults to list. I did manage to learn that Ryan Franklin was signed 16 years ago by the M’s. That’s a lot of time in the minors.
I Didn't Say...
…there weren’t clubs for which an equally, or more, impressive list could be made, did I? In fact, I invited people to name some clubs. My post was in response to somebody whose post implied that Billingsley is the only Dodger pitching prospect who has “panned out.” I think my list refutes that idea, don’t you?
by CanuckDodger on Dec 30, 2008 12:25 AM EST up reply actions
Yes...
you did invite others to name some other clubs and that’s precisely what I did. It just seemed odd seeing Proctor’s name on that list. It would be kind of like seeing Brian Fuentes’ name on a Mariner list. Not exactly but anyways… I’m in agreement the Dodgers have produced more arms than Billingsley.
im assuming Chin Lung Hu just lost his rookie status, right?
if he were still eligible, how would he rate?
by Charlie Scrabbles on Dec 29, 2008 11:26 AM EST reply actions
Andrew Lambo
Is it me or is everyone underrated how good of a hitter this guy is?
by richieabernathy on Dec 29, 2008 2:31 PM EST reply actions
re:
He basically had the same season as Moustakas giving them the best seasons for a full time teen-ager in the MWL.
http://minors.baseball-reference.com/bat_leaders.cgi?yid=2008&lvl=A&lid=MWL&sort=OPS
but Moustakas is currently an infielder who will become a left fielder while Lambo is a left fielder who might become a 1st baseman. So for now Moustakas is a top 20 talent while Lambo will struggle to make a top 50 list. So yes, I think he is being underrated. It looks like he wont get the benefit of playing in the Cal League like Carlos Santana did so we will get to see what kind of damage he can inflict when he joins the new AA affiliate in Chattanooga.
I expect a big break out once he leaves the frigid MWL.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
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