Howie Kendrick: Breakout Candidate?

by Dewey Finn on Dec 26, 2008 3:23 AM EST Comment 32 comments

From several reputable sources (including John Sickels), Howie Kendrick has been forecasted as a potential batting champion (perhaps multiple times). Unfortunately, the kid has gotten himself the 'injury prone' label. Heading into 2009, what are your expections for him? Aside from his ability to hit for a .300+ avg, what do you see in terms of power and speed potential? Although his minor league numbers were slightly inflated due to hitter friendly environments, I beleived that he had 20+ HR potential. At this point, I think 15-20 is more reasonable (closer to 15 most likely). As for speed, I think 30+ SBs is definitely possible if he were to stay healthy long enough. Personally, I think he would be the ideal #2 hitter for the halos, however, Mike Scioscia tends to keep him near the bottom of the lineup.

Anyways, what are your thoughts on Howie Kendrick heading into 2009?

I hope everyone had a wonderful Christmas and got to spend time with family.

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please don't recommend this post

It’s not funny.

Now raise your goblet of rock. It's a toast to those who rock!

by Dewey Finn on Dec 26, 2008 3:25 AM EST reply actions 2 recs

I agree that Kendrick has the ability to compete for a batting title barring more injuries. Even when he doesn’t make solid contact his bloops/ducksnorts seem to find a hole. Add speed into the equation, and he will have some very strong BA seasons ahead of him.

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by Giant among Angels on Dec 26, 2008 3:42 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Isn't it equally likely he's been overrated all along?

His skill set, highly dependent on batting average, was a risky one to begin with. He’s not a great fielder. And Angels hitting prospects of his generation have all underperformed. I’d bet on him to be an above-average player, but never a star.

by aap212 on Dec 26, 2008 4:57 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

+1

He still should be a good player though

by alskor on Dec 26, 2008 2:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Value

I had him in my roto pool, and offered him for Jair Jurrjens. It was rejected, but I got a counter offer for Dice-K! Merry Christmas to me!

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by Buzz Bissinger on Dec 26, 2008 12:23 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

.315/.345/.420

with 12 HR – 50 RBI – 18 SB

something like that if he stays healthy

by Navi's_Navy on Dec 26, 2008 1:07 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I do

think he was being overrated throughout his minor league career, though

by Navi's_Navy on Dec 26, 2008 1:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

If healthy...

I think he would drive in a few more runs and steal a few more bases.

Solid projection by you tho. The avg/power seem about right. Potential for more down the road.

Now raise your goblet of rock. It's a toast to those who rock!

by Dewey Finn on Dec 26, 2008 1:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The driving in runs is pretty team-dependent

And that “stellar” team OBP of the Angels sans Teixeira isn’t going to help at all.

"Are you a real doctor, or a doctor like Dr. Pepper is a doctor?"

by Allen Chace on Dec 28, 2008 2:13 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Howie Kendrick Profile

Regarding the “injury prone” label, in 2007 he got hit on the hand twice by pitches, which is certainly not his fault. In 2008, he had a nagging hamstring injury; those are usually a conditioning issue and can be corrected. (Although Reggie Jackson had hamstring injuries throughout his career and I’ve yet to find anyone who wrote him off.)

People tend to dismiss Angels prospects because they don’t take a lot of walks. That’s not necessarily the player’s fault, it’s the Angels system of play. They encourage a batter to find a ball he can drive, especially with runners on base, to move up the runners. It works best with contact hitters like Howie; in the minors through 2007 he struck out about once every 7.7 AB. The Angels know he can square up pretty much any pitch and put it in play, which is why he has the low walk rate.

Howie had a bit of a meltdown in the 2008 ALDS, but that’s just a young player’s jitters. Over the long run, he should be a reliable .300+ AVG. His OBP will probably be in the .325-.350 range because of the Angels’ system, but he should have some pop too as he matures physically and adjusts to major league pitching.

by FutureAngels on Dec 26, 2008 1:29 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Angels system of play

You say Angels prospects don’t take walks, but Napoli and Willits take walks. I think Howie just doesn’t take them. But I think he will have some big years.

by wobatus on Dec 26, 2008 6:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Eh

It really doesn’t matter if it happens to be the player’s tendencies or the Angels system of play that encourages not taking a lot of walks – the end result is still a player who has a low OBP unless he has an extremely high batting average.

He’s a VERY talented natural hitter and anybody who says otherwise just hasn’t seen him very much. But he still swings at way too many bad pitches and gets himself out too much, and it DOES limit his productivity.

by mrkupe on Dec 27, 2008 9:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Dewey Finn

Is single handedly ruining this website for me. Get your own website if you want to hear yourself talk, you’re a parasite on John Sickel’s site.

by The Economist on Dec 26, 2008 4:56 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

i love dewey finn

He initiates conversations, and doesn’t spew out the same old boring garbage that I read on every other prospect site.

If you don’t like what people are writing, don’t read it.

by spoondoggie on Dec 26, 2008 5:08 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I'm convinced

that Dewey is actually Bret Anderson and is trying to bring down expectations of himself.

A agree tho, Dewey generates conversation (good or bad) and has his own very unique style of rating prospects. If you dont like his posts, dont read them. Pretty simple IMO

by tmt85 on Dec 26, 2008 6:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

If you guys don't like critiques by The Economist and others of Dewey Finn

Then don’t read them. Pretty simple.

by gogotabata on Dec 26, 2008 7:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

There's a difference

Between critiques and insults (ie "parasite").

Now raise your goblet of rock. It's a toast to those who rock!

by Dewey Finn on Dec 26, 2008 8:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Kendrick vs Cano

Who do you believe is better?

Now raise your goblet of rock. It's a toast to those who rock!

by Dewey Finn on Dec 26, 2008 10:54 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I think this was a topic of a post a few months ago

I for one would say Cano. Health is a skill of sorts, and Cano’s a lot better at it than Kendrick. Cano just had a bad year, but I doubt Kendrick will be able to match Cano’s production over a full season even if he has the edge in speed.

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by The Congo Hammer on Dec 27, 2008 12:23 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

defense

Cano is bad at it. And offense, at least lately.

by Daniel Berlyn on Dec 27, 2008 1:20 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

you don't see Robbie as a bounce back candidate?

I do and he has what I believe to be a better lineup around him.

sit*

by U-God on Dec 27, 2008 10:49 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Kinsler :)

Sorry. I couldn’t resist.

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by RangerMad on Dec 29, 2008 8:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

There's a site for the Angels on MVN

This one is for minor league players.

I’m with the Economist on this one.

by RedSoxFaithful on Dec 27, 2008 2:36 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Did you watch the playoffs last year?

I mean I know it’s a small sample size but Howie was TERRIBLE. He chased every single slider low and away he saw. He made more than his fair share of awful fielding plays. He killed their team basically all series. On top of that, he’s never shown much power, never walks, and strikes out a pretty decent amount. Everyone who saw him in the playoffs will feed him sliders low and away this season, and I’m not sure he’s a smart enough hitter to adjust. Also he’s insanely injury prone. Howie Kendrick is bad.

by cherbs77 on Dec 27, 2008 1:39 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

That was all

anecdotal evidence with nothing objective that someone can’t dispute. A small sample size of something tha can be measured with pitch f/x

maybe if we could look at Kendrick’s season and career pitch f/x numbers to see which quadrants of the strike zone he had trouble in and with what pitches in those quadrants he had the most trouble then maybe, but not saying that in the stretch of a playoff series he was bad so he must be bad.

by Navi's_Navy on Dec 27, 2008 5:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I have read some scouting reports that sort of back up what cherbs noted

Something along the lines of how Howie has always had such great contact skills that he thinks he can hit every single pitch, and thus swings at them all (which is supported by his walk rate). I too would like to see a pitch f/x analysis though.

by jibs on Dec 27, 2008 6:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Maybe I was a little unclear

I’m not doubting that he has trouble with sliders low and away, I just have no evidence to support it (besides six games of annecdotal evidence from a relatively untrained eye). The defensive statement is untrue as he is, by UZR standards, (200 game sample) slightly above average. While UZR isn’t perfet he is not a bad fielder.

The injuries can also be creditted to bad HBPs which hurt him so I’m not sold on the idea that he is injury prone.

by Navi's_Navy on Dec 27, 2008 6:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

it's actually a pretty accurate statement:

When they should be sacrifice bunting, they are buying effeminate designer jeans. When they should be fouling off pitches, they are masturbating. Always, they are masturbating.

by variablesdont on Dec 28, 2008 11:39 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks

Not only for rubbing my statements in my face sarcasm but for providing the data. Pretty interesting, I wasn’t disagreeing, just echoing the widely accepted notion that anecdotal evidence isn’t concrete enough to hold weight. But, with that being said, I feel like a dumbass, because I did not expect him to have immense trouble with any specific pitch (this isn’t horrible, but he dosn’t seem to be making good contact on sliders anywhere).

Again, thanks for this, where do you find pitch f/x data? I’ve looked around (albeit not heavily) but I can’t seem to find anything that fits the bill in terms of graphs presented in this manner. Any help would be appreciated =]

by Navi's_Navy on Dec 28, 2008 9:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

http://baseball.bornbybits.com/php/combined_tool.php

I use this site for pitchers’ f/x data all the time, but honestly never looked at any hitters’ data until variablesdont posted that graph. Now I can commence wasting tons of additional hours there.

by jibs on Dec 29, 2008 9:31 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Well

I’m usually a numbers guy but I really don’t need to look at the numbers to see that Kendrick has no plate discipline. And I know that is a small sample size but the playoffs are when hitters are supposed to be most locked in and most disciplined. His around 4% walk rate last season compared to a K% around 17 shows that he is a very undisciplined hitter and one whose only value is tied to his batting average.

by cherbs77 on Dec 27, 2008 11:10 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

He can give

some decent power/speed with slightly above average defense from a valuable position at least.

I do think people rate him highly, but even 10/10 with a .305/.340/.420 is good from a second baseman with upside for .335/.380/.470 in his absolute peak.

by Navi's_Navy on Dec 27, 2008 11:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs