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San Francisco Giants Top 20 Prospects for 2009

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Tommy John is not an automatic happy ending

San Francisco Giants Top 20 Prospects for 2009

All grades are EXTREMELY PRELIMINARY and subject to change. Don’t get too worried about exact rankings at this point, especially once you get out of the top 10. Grade C+/C guys are pretty interchangeable depending on what you are looking for.

 

1) Madison Bumgarner, LHP, Grade A: Health is a risk as with any young pitcher, but incredible performance at a young age and improved secondary stuff stands out.

2) Buster Posey, C, Grade A-: Excellent defense, should hit for average with high OBP and at least moderate power.

3) Tim Alderson, RHP, Grade B+: Borderline A-. Doesn’t have Bumgarner’s stuff but pitched well at a higher level with great command.

4) Angel Villalona, 1B, Grade B: Grade A power potential, Grade C refinement. Horrid plate discipline balances out extreme youth at this point.

5) Conor Gillaspie, 3B, Grade B-: I like the Midwest guys. Polished bat, will hit for average and get on base, glove needs to be more reliable but I think it will.

6) Henry Sosa, RHP, Grade B-: Good arm, but a bit erratic, can he stay healthy?

7) Nick Noonan, 2B, Grade B-: Strike zone judgment needs work but I like the other skills.

8) Travis Ishikawa, 1B, Grade C+: In under the 130 at-bat rule. Should be a solid player but I don’t see stardom in him.

9) Waldis Joaquin, RHP, Grade C+: Fits the tradition of power arms in this organization.

10) Rafael Rodriguez, OF, Grade C+: I have no idea where to rank guys like this. Could be anything from a superstar to a superdud.

11) Jose Casilla, RHP, Grade C+: Another power arm of interest, though a long way away.

12) Clayton Tanner, LHP, Grade C+: I like him as a sleeper for ’09.

13) Jesse English, LHP, Grade C+: Added to 40-man roster, rebuilt his career following injuries with a strong year in the Cal League.

14) Scott Barnes, LHP, Grade C+: Intriguing lefty out of St. John’s in the 2008 draft. Good stuff, decent command.

15)  Luis Perdomo, RHP, Grade C+: Nice pickup in the Rule 5. Could help in bullpen quickly.

16) Ehire Adrianza, SS, Grade C+: Good scouting reports, good glove, sample size very small. Could rise rapidly in grade in ’09. Other sources will rank him higher.

17) Kelvin Pichardo, RHP, Grade C+: Another power arm who can help if he throws strikes.

18) Sergio Romo, RHP, Grade C+: In under the 50-inning rule  Great story, I like him a lot, but beware fly balls and unsustainable BABIP leading to regression to mean.

19) Jesus Guzman, 3B, Grade C+: Signed away from Oakland as minor league free agent. I think his progress was real.

20) Joseph Martinez, RHP, Grade C: Wins with marginal stuff. Can he do this in the majors?

 

Others: Brandon Crawford, SS; Matt Downs, UT; Wendell Fairley, OF; Jason Jarvis, RHP; Roger Kieschnick, OF; Aaron King, LHP; Mike Loree, RHP; Daryl Maday, RHP; Osiris Matos, RHP; Thomas Neal, 1B; Kyle Nicholson, RHP; Juan Carlos Perez, OF; Kevin Pucetas, RHP; Edwin Quirate, RHP; Ryan Rohlinger, 3B; Adam Witter, C-1B.

 

As usual, don’t sweat so much about where the Grade C+/C types rank exactly on this list. After I get past the top 10 I don’t worry so much about exact placement, since I’m trying to concentrate on the book right now. Some of the Grade C guys could be C+ in the book, and vice versa.

 

SYSTEM IN BRIEF:
    The system has three outstanding prospects in Bumgarner, Alderson, and Posey. After that the question marks start, with guys like Villalona and Gillaspie having notable strengths but also weaknesses that prevent a higher grade at this time.

   The Giants seem to have a knack for finding spare pitching between the couch cushions, and are adept at picking up both power arms and more polished guys. You never know which young pitcher is going to go Foppert on you, so it is wise to gather as many as possible.

    They have considerably less depth in position players, and at lower levels are relying on raw tools guys like Rodriguez and Fairley to carry the load. Even college pick Kieschnick is relatively raw. Don’t worry about Posey, though. I think the only thing that could derail him is injury, a risk for all young catchers.

 

 

Reports on these guys and over 1,000 others can be found in the 2009 Baseball Prospect Book. Pre-order for January 31st shipping now!


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on behalf of the Giants fans on here...

thank you so much for doing this.

As for the list, I’ve very happy to see MadBum at an A and Posey at an A-, but overall, I was thinking that there would be more B- or higher talent in the system. Knowing your methods, I understand why AnVil is a B, and why Gillaspie, Noonan, and Sosa are B-. Actually, rethinking rather than revising my post, I’m not sure who else I would put as a B-. Possibly RafRod, but I can understand not listing him higher without seeing him play at all. I’m pretty surprised that Fairly and Kieschnick didn’t make the top 20.

One last note, thanks for putting English at 13. I was pushing him fairly hard over at McCoveyChronicles. Now I can gloat about how my opinion is superior to theirs. HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

Psycho killer, qu'est-ce que c'est?

by shikantaza on Dec 24, 2008 9:13 AM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

AnVil doesn't sound like a very complimentary nickname.

It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver

by WaddellCanseco on Dec 24, 2008 5:21 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

and why not?

I wish I thought of it first, as long as he develops.

by Daniel Berlyn on Dec 24, 2008 6:41 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

oh man...

did you have to put a picture of Foppert up there?

Psycho killer, qu'est-ce que c'est?

by shikantaza on Dec 24, 2008 9:16 AM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Yeah, seriously. Bad omen!

/deer head
Bay City Ball

by xanthan on Dec 24, 2008 10:01 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Surprises

I was surprised that Fairley didn’t make the top-20. He’s got a ton of talent and showed plate discipline – the one thing you can’t teach a hitter. I think that power will come and he’s reportedly plays a very good CF. He’s a great athlete, and raw, but not without baseball skills.

I was also surprised that Pucetas didn’t make it. Sabean recently said that after Sanchez, he was the most asked about pitcher in trade talks. He had a good AFL and is slated to start the year at Fresno.

I thought you’d give Villalona the benefit of the doubt (B+) given his month-to-month improvement in a pitchers league at age 17.

Finally, I thought your ranking of Juaquin was generous – he’s had several years, has repeatedly been hurt and has never put up overwhelming numbers.

But overall, a very solid list. Thanks for doing this, John!

Hector Sanchez: really getting tired of playing baseball in foreign countries...

by tedfordfan on Dec 24, 2008 10:03 AM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

agree 100% on Fairley. I think he’s a big sleeper in 2009, and could climb a couple of levels this season. But I have to say I think John absolutely nailed the top 5, and maybe even the top 7 (I had Noonan ahead of Sosa on my personal rankings over at McC, but only by a smidge). As a biased Giants fan, I’d like to see Alderson an A- and Villalona a B+, but I can understand the reasoning behind both of those.

Idolizing Robb Nen since 2002...

by Smoke on the Water on Dec 24, 2008 2:19 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Fairley and Pucetas

I think two were underrated here, John.
Fariley may not have proven much yet, but as a 1st rounder 1.5 years removed, you would think the Giants amateur scouts would get the benefit of the doubt, barring horrible performance or drastic injury issues. Any specific reason he didn’t make the top 20? Thanks

by ofsticksandbats on Dec 24, 2008 10:19 AM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Fairley was bad enough to leave off the list

Come on, he played in Rookie Ball and didn’t hit for power or average. The fielding, plate discipline, and athleticism is all there but he is older than MadBum and Alderson. A .725 OPS?? I think he needs to prove more than he has for himself to become a legit prospect. Being a first-rounder doesn’t lock you in for greatness.

by CptLivingston on Dec 24, 2008 8:25 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

He’s on the Fred Lewis career path. He’ll be in the bigs, if at all, when he’s 25 or 26.

Bonds stands alone.

Proud adopted parent of future big league slugger Thomas Neal

by nostocksjustbonds on Dec 25, 2008 2:30 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Improvement

Wendell Fairley certainly didn’t have a great season, particularly for an older player in the rookie league. But the comparison to Fred Lewis as a late bloomer might turn out to be apt, although Wendell will likely need to develop a bit of power to justify the comparison.

But Wendell improved his batting average by around 40 points each month, and after beginning his career like a strikeout king, didn’t wind up with a horrible K/BB ratio (37/26). In the season’s final two months, the ratio was actually 30/26, which is pretty darn good.

I agree Wendell should be in the top 20. He must continue to show significant improvement, but he certainly improved as last season went on.

I want to thank John for pointing out Jose Casilla. The 19-year-old appears to be somewhat of a strikeout pitcher with good control who throws a lot of ground balls. Nice combination!

I must admit to being ignorant of Casilla (Maybe the name scared me. Skin. Steve. Rolls. Or was it Jose Castillo?), but now that John has pointed him out, I’ll be watching him closely.

Hopefully, literally watching him in San Jose one of these days.

by sharksrog on Dec 25, 2008 3:40 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

imagine...

Imagine if Sabean didn’t purposefully throw away all those draft picks several years ago…

by sabernar on Dec 24, 2008 10:26 AM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

more thanks

Thanks for this work. In the end we don’t much disagree, but I really appreciate seeing your thinking. The comments are what I come for, not the grades and the rankings.

And it is nice to see Jesse English. I root for him in something like the opposite way I root for Joey Martinez. Martinez, report fans who’ve met him, is smart, knows his limitations, works hard, and gosh darn it, is really nice to kids. I am a sucker for that, so even though he’s marginal, I root for him.

English, reports have read, is lazy, overeats, underworks, and has been rumored to have ‘attitude’ issues (I never quite know what this means, but I like to imagine some sort of third-tier Cool Hand Luke behaviors). Oh, and he has a good slider. I am a weak man; I root for the snotty kid with the great slider, too.

by wcw on Dec 24, 2008 11:11 AM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

english

Hmm, I didn’t know that about him. I remember one quote from a coach calling him “something of a physical specimen as far as body fat is concerned” or something like that. I assumed he was a hard worker.

Less arm, more talk. Raisingcain is a GAMER.
Adopted Giant: Henry Sosa

by raisingcain on Dec 24, 2008 11:55 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

jesse english

Maybe the reports on Jesse English were from the past? This year in San Jose, he looked ripped and in incredible shape. Said he worked hard all summer, and looks to be turning things around after injuries derailed him early. There was an article on him on milb.com about how he was the team leader of the staff in San Jose, and he couldn’t have been more cool to everyone. Plus all his teammates laughed at his rookie cards of how he used to look.

by henwo on Dec 24, 2008 12:52 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

What’s Posey’s grade if he moves to 3B? I obviously don’t buy “excellent defense.”

What would Villalona’s grade for refinement have been if he didn’t have a great second half?

I think EME breaks out this year. I see some big league time for him this year, but he’s likely to stick with an AL team since he uses his glove as a hand warmer and nothing else.

I saw Joaquin in Hawaii and honestly, I think he’s a better pitcher than a ton of big leaguers now. He’s a good fit for AT&T Park. Dude is going to make a ton of money as a middle reliever eventually.

by Rusty the Robot on Dec 24, 2008 11:26 AM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Angel’s K/BB by month last year:
April 21/6
May 26/5
June 31/2
July 21/2
August 22/3

In addition, his LD% was actually at it’s highest in June (24) and May (17.6). His GB% was highest in April (50) and August (48.8). Honestly, I think the idea that he had any major sort of progression through the season last year is overplayed. Pretty much across the board he was much better in May than in June; his August performance was buoyed by a .351 BABIP. He showed good raw power throughout the season (again two best HR months, May and August) but his awful plate discipline (refinement) was equally on display throughout the season.

Get the hell out the way Bengie, Pablito's hit the show!

by Roger on Dec 24, 2008 11:54 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Still...

.264/.313/.436/.749 as the equivalent of a high school junior in the SAL league is pretty darn good no matter what the deficiencies.

Hector Sanchez: really getting tired of playing baseball in foreign countries...

by tedfordfan on Dec 24, 2008 12:34 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

He wasn't the equivalent of a high school junior

Just because he played most of the season at 17 years old doesn’t make him the equivalent of a high school junior. Just off the top of my head, I know Heyward was in his 17 year old season when he was drafted as a HS senior. I’m not going to take the time to look up others, but I’m sure there are some out there.

I think Angel’s age allows us to look past his major deficiencies, but you’re really stretching the truth to make your point by calling him the equivalent of a HS junior. Using the same logic, Heyward deserves even more recognition since he was only the equivalent of a
HS senior this year.

by nixa37 on Dec 24, 2008 1:24 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

True. Heyward is almost exactly one year older than Villalona. Angel’s own teammate Nick Noonan is only 15 months older than him, although the difference between Nick’s May birthday and Angel’s August one means Nick is considered to be two playing age season’s ahead.

Get the hell out the way Bengie, Pablito's hit the show!

by Roger on Dec 24, 2008 1:56 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

And it’s not like Heyward doesn’t have recognition heaped all over him for what he’s doing. Fact is he was still substantially younger than everyone else in the league in his first professional season at a level way over what he had previously playing. I think that his grade is acceptable and will make a move in one direction or another after this coming season

by dogdays on Dec 24, 2008 2:02 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Yep, you’re right. Totally invalidates my point because he’s the equivalent of a high school senior (a young one) and not a junior. Angel sucks.

Forgive the sarcasm – I hear what you’re saying. Angel has flaws in his game. But he was fricking 17 years old! Playing in a pitcher’s league against players that were on average 5 years older than him, he was around league average as a hitter. Maybe I’m overstating the case and looking past his deficiencies (like the serious lack of strike zone discipline), but I think you’re equally underestimating how incredible what he did was.

And, yes, I do agree that Heyward deserves even more recognition for what he did this year. I think he vaulted himself into the top 5-10 prospects in all of baseball.

Hector Sanchez: really getting tired of playing baseball in foreign countries...

by tedfordfan on Dec 24, 2008 2:18 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

When did I say anything about my ranking of Angel?

All I was saying is that its incorrect to call him the equivalent of a high school junior. I even agreed that his age allows us to overlook the glaring deficiencies he currently has in his game. Clearly the amazing power potential is there, but unless Villalona learns how to walk way more or hit for a significantly higher average with some increase in BB, that power potential isn’t enough to make him even a solid major league player. At the same time, he’s only going to be 18 on opening day next year, so he’s got year’s to figure it out.

Also, just a note, Angel’s OBP may be a tad misleading because of his 16 HBP (compared to just 15 unintentional BB). I don’t know that he’s going to continually repeat that going forward, so he may need to improve his plate discipline just to keep his OBP from dropping.

by nixa37 on Dec 24, 2008 2:41 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Just because he's 17

Doesn’t make him an A- or B+
Just because he got a B doesn’t scream “I hate the Giants and Villalona has no future!” it just screams that he’s 17. 17.

Who's world is it? It's yours.

by BlackOps on Dec 24, 2008 6:06 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

K/BB ratio

I like to look at the ratio of a player’s power to his strikeouts to his walks. AnVil has the power (almost certainly more potential there than anyone else in the organization), but he strikes out a ton and doesn’t walk much.

I think AnVil will hit with plenty of power, but will hit for a low average and unless he scares pitchers into pitching around him a lot, will have a low OBP. I can see AnVil becoming sort of an Adam Dunn without the walks. Probably a LITTLE higher average for AnVil, but probably slightly less power and almost certainly a far lower OBP.

I don’t see AnVil’s OPS as being much (if any) above average for a first baseman — even at close to full potential.

By the way, AnVil is only a year and something like 11 days younger than Madison Bumgarner. AnVil played fairly well at Augusta, while Bumgarner put up a season for the ages.

by sharksrog on Dec 25, 2008 3:50 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

As always

As always, Roger, your insights are, well, insightful. I too worry about AnVil’s poor K/BB ratio and his lack of improvement in that area as the season went on.

As I recall, his April and May walk totals were buoyed by some intentional walks, so his regression in that area wasn’t quite as bad as it looked. On the other side of the coin, however, it appears pitchers and managers feared AnVil less at the end of the season then they did early.

In my mind, AnVil, Nick Noonan and Wendell Fairley each dropped last season, as did Henry Sosa due to injury. Clayton Tanner didn’t help himself out much, but he’s still young, turning 21 this month.

by sharksrog on Dec 25, 2008 3:45 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

He's probably not moving to 3B...

Give him a season to prove himself behind the plate before declaring him a terrible catcher. He’s fairly new to the position and was playing his first games of pro ball; he might not be acclamated to it yet.

by boonitez on Dec 24, 2008 5:02 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Good behind the dish

I think Buster Posey will be fine behind the plate, although I hope the Giants take advantage of both his and Pablo Sandoval’s versatility to keep the legs of both players fresh.

Like most hitters, Buster has a weakness on the low, outside curve ball, but he seems to really lock in when he closes his stance as the pitcher begins to release the pitch.

Defensively, I realize he had a TON of passed balls in the Hawaiian League, but that wasn’t a problem in college, so I wonder if part of the problem was working with new pitchers and perhaps being crossed up on occasion. As Florida State’s closer, he certainly has the arm to play behind the plate. And as a former shortstop, the athleticism as well.

by sharksrog on Dec 25, 2008 3:55 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Romo is still a prospect?

I have a top 50 list posted on the SFG message board, and I didn’t include Romo because I thought he was not a prospect anymore.

by Matt Rox on Dec 24, 2008 12:10 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

What is his great story?

I don’t know anything about him, could someone enlighten me please?

by drwmsu1 on Dec 24, 2008 2:40 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I believe

there is a 45 day on the 25 man roster rule that would keep him from technically being a ‘prospect’.

by dogdays on Dec 24, 2008 4:08 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

service time

I go by simple innings pitched (50) and at-bats (130). I don’t care about service time.

by John Sickels on Dec 24, 2008 5:09 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Yea.

45 days is the “rookie” limit I guess “prospect” limit can be something else. But it’s easier this way, service time is a little harder to figure out.

The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."

by WalrusMan on Dec 24, 2008 8:37 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Posey

Am I the only one that thinks an A- for Posey is quite high? I liked him in the draft, no doubt, but an A- strikes me as an elite player in terms of how player projects to the bigs. I’m not sure I look at Posey and see a guy who I think will be one of the elite catchers in the bigs for the next decade or so. Good, yes.

Dunno, maybe it’s me. I think Angel is a B+ considering his upside and how he finished.

That said, those are two minor quibbles (I think Posey is a B+). On first glance, solid list.

by toonsterwu on Dec 24, 2008 12:14 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

If he is what we think he is (a good defensive catcher who can hit), then he deserves an A-.

The Denker bus is now bound for San Diego. Those who were passengers on it are now angrily stranded at a gas station in Modesto, CA. Not much about baseball here .

by oldjacket on Dec 24, 2008 12:17 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Seeing him in the CWS, he looked like a real stud

definitely on a higher plane than his competition, I can buy A-

by Daniel Berlyn on Dec 24, 2008 1:38 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

+1

I can’t see Posey much higher than a B+ myself. Disagree on Villalona though, youth is nice but you can’t give him much more than a B because of the horrid plate discipline.

"So's your mom"-David Sloane

by gatling on Dec 24, 2008 12:23 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

a bunch of people thought he was the top prospect in this year's draft...

I could see either an A- or a B+ for him

Psycho killer, qu'est-ce que c'est?

by shikantaza on Dec 24, 2008 12:34 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Posey and AnVil

Posey was considered as sure a thing as anyone in the 2008 draft, albeit with a lower ceiling than some of the other elite prospects. I like the A-, although I can see some reasoning (but not a lot) for dropping it to a B+.

I see a large step down from Buster to AnVil. I would probably rank Buster as a low A- and AnVil as a high B. Actually, a high B probably overstates AnVil’s case to me. Despite the huge potential of Madison Bumgarner, I could actually see Buster as the Giants’ #1 prospect, given the uncertainty of pitchers. I see AnVil as being much closer to Tim Alderson than to either Buster or Mad Bum.

By the way, you didn’t see me downgrading Tim Lincecum for potential injury problems. Certainly he’s not out of the woods yet, and the Giants pushed him hard the last quarter of the season, but I think he motion keeps much of the strain off his arm.

Lincecum would seem to me to be most vulnerable in his core — but that is the area he has emphasized for both strength and flexibility for close to 20 years now. Tim is built almost identically to his dad and is said to have a very similar motion. Chris was said to be clocked at 88 mph at the age of 52 when Chris was pitching batting practice for the team Tim’s older brother Sean played for.

Regarding the other Tim (Alderson), he is said to rarely hit over 92 mph on the gun, but his curve ball and poise already appear to be at a major league level. He either doesn’t have confidence in his change or doesn’t feel he has to use it, as he rarely uses the pitch.

IMO the key to Alderson’s becoming a good major league starter will be his ability to develop the change up to help keep left-handed batters off balance. At High A San Jose (Yes, I know the way.), Tim limited right-handed hitters to a paltry .201 batting average, while lefties hit .265 against him.

It would help Alderson if he could add a little to his fastball, but I think the change is the key for him. Tim seems to have good speed differential from his fastball with his change, but he isn’t yet consistent in his speed on the pitch. As long as there is enough speed differential, I’m not sure I see the varying speed of the change up as a real problem.

Tim Lincecum added his change up prior to the 2007 season, and it helped him fashion an 0.29 ERA at AAA Fresno after not having pitched higher than High A, the precise level Alderson pitched at last season. Timmy Two doesn’t have the stuff of The Freak, but I believe the proper improvement in his change up will round out the equipment needed for him to become a successful major league starter.

by sharksrog on Dec 25, 2008 4:12 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Alderson

Why is he borderline A-?

by Take3 on Dec 24, 2008 1:47 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

maybe because he was one of the top pitchers at his level… at age 19… in his first professional season?

by dogdays on Dec 24, 2008 2:04 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Led the Cal league in ERA. FIP just over 3. 19 years old.

Hector Sanchez: really getting tired of playing baseball in foreign countries...

by tedfordfan on Dec 24, 2008 2:19 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Yeah, his performance was great

But in terms of stuff, he’s not an A-

by Take3 on Dec 24, 2008 3:34 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

so you’re saying in performance he’s an A- but not in stuff… so why exactly are you questioning the “borderline” comment? seems like he’s the very definition of the term to me.

Idolizing Robb Nen since 2002...

by Smoke on the Water on Dec 24, 2008 3:44 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I don't know if you've seen him pitch

but he’s very deceptive. Before he deliver’s he points off to one side and yells, “OMG what’s that?!” then floats a 40 MPH rainbow over the plate… very effective but the stuffs not there.

Wait, no that’s not right. Low 90’s fastball, and light’s out breaking and offspeed pitches and he has a delivery that makes pitches hard to pick up… the kid has the stuff too. A- isn’t hard to believe

by dogdays on Dec 24, 2008 4:06 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I don't see A- stuff

I don’t see A- stuff from Tim Alderson, but I do see Grade A poise and nice control. Even if he develops his change up to the point where he appropriately has confidence in the pitch, I don’t think his stuff will be A- (although if his change could become Lincecum-like, I might change my mind, no pun intended).

I see similarities in the Mad Bum/Posey relationship and the Villalona/Alderson relationship in that the former players have the higher ceilings (particularly in Mad Bum’s case), but the latter player would seem to be the safer bet.

I probably would rank Alderson slightly above Villalona (Tim is a year and three-quarters older than AnVil.) and might even do the same with Posey over Mad Bum. I’m a big potential guy, so I probably would keep Mad Bum atop Buster (Yeah, I realize I could have said that better.), but until AnVil makes significant improvement in his K/BB ratio, I’m not sure I can rank him above Alderson in good conscience.

If AnVil continues to strike out as much, it will be very difficult for him to hit for average. And unless he learns to take a walk, he could have a hard time getting his OBP much above .300. If both his K’s and BB’s don’t improve significantly, I think it will be quite hard for him to be much above average as a hitter at first base. If he can defend well enough to move back to the hot corner, his value would naturally increase.

by sharksrog on Dec 25, 2008 4:23 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

And I think a correction to Sickel’s explanation of Alderson “stuff” is that he doesn’t have MadBum’s fastball (but who does?!). Alderson’s offspeed/secondary stuff is probably superior though I’ve not seen Bumgarner pitch.

by dogdays on Dec 24, 2008 4:12 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

In the end..

Doesn’t it not matter what kind of “stuff” he has? It’s the results that count. Not talking about the end results, like ERA, WINZ! and all of them, but ratio stats. And as long as you can sustain good ratio stats which lead to good end results the “stuff” doesn’t really matter.

The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."

by WalrusMan on Dec 24, 2008 8:40 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Stuff matters

IMO stuff DOES matter, since as a guy progresses through the minors and into the majors, it becomes harder to get by without stuff. Stuff isn’t everything, and I certainly agree that Tim Alderson has very fine poise for someone so young, but I can certainly see Tim’s fastball being taken deep if he doesn’t place it well. IMO he MUST develop a good change up to become a good major league starter.

I happen to think he will do so — hopefully for the 2009 season. I think he actually has the makings of a good one.

by sharksrog on Dec 25, 2008 4:26 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I guess I agree to a degree.

That yes as you move your way up the ladder, sometimes your bad stuff can be exposed. But if you’re at the major league level, having good stats but bad “stuff” I think doesn’t hurt at all. Perhaps your “stuff” is just something other than nasty pitches.

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"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."

by WalrusMan on Dec 25, 2008 9:43 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I can't seem to find it right now

but I recall reading a study on BA about a year or so ago on the relationship between velocity and ERA, and the results were pretty unambiguously a direct correlation. On average pitcher’s with greater velocity had decidedly lower ERAs. It’s probably behind BA’s firewall at this point, but if anybody has a link I’d love to look at that again.

Get the hell out the way Bengie, Pablito's hit the show!

by Roger on Dec 25, 2008 1:41 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Not many

I don’t think there are many pitchers without good stuff who HAVE good major league stats. I know there are exceptions, but I think they are definitely exceptions.

by sharksrog on Dec 25, 2008 4:05 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

If we are still discussing Alderson

are you arguing that he doesn’t have “the stuff”?
True, he doesn’t have a dominating fastball and therefore he doesn’t have the velocity, but his curve is the pitch that he’s going to make the majors with. His curve is his stuff. His changeup was pretty good for the level he was in and if there were one pitch the Giants organization can teach it’s a solid change (remember that even Linc developed his with the Giants). I feel like his non-fastball offerings more than make up for the 3 or 4 mph he’s missing on the fastball.

by dogdays on Dec 26, 2008 12:42 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

and it's not like he's throwing 87...

from what I’ve heard, he’s got a low 90’s fastball. If his other stuff and command is good enough, that’s more than enough to get hitters out.

Psycho killer, qu'est-ce que c'est?

by shikantaza on Dec 26, 2008 2:21 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Generally speaking

I was speaking generally when I said that few major league pitchers have good stats without good stuff. And no, I wasn’t merely referring to a good fastball for those who had good stuff. Greg Maddux had great stuff without having much speed on his fastball.

Regarding Tim Alderson, you are correct that his curve ball is his stuff. It’s more 10-to-4 as opposed to Tim Lincecum’s so-called 13-to-6 curve. (It has been said that 12-to-6 doesn’t do it justice.) It doesn’ have the snap Lincecum’s does, but the break appears to be at least as big. And whose curve DOES have the snap of Lincecum’s?

Timmy Two’s curve appears to be of major league quality already. So does his poise. His fastball appears to be an average major league fastball. His control is good. So what is he lacking to pitch in the major leagues immediately?

As with virtually all young pitchers, he no doubt is still learning about the art of pitching. More than anything though, I think it depends on his change up.

Like you, I don’t think it far from being an effective pitch for him. Perhaps little more than his developing the confidence to throw it more often. The few times I saw him throw it, he didn’t appear to be tipping the pitch (at least not from the behind-the-plate view) and it appeared to have both movement and significant speed differential from his fastball.

But he seldom used the pitch the day I saw him open San Jose’s appearance in the Cal League playoffs and seemed to abandon it completely after the first couple of frames. The guy with the radar gun said he seldom used the pitch. He also said Tim rarely threw above 92 (although he was consistently in the 89-91 range on this particular day).

But just as there is a difference in Tim Lincecum’s electric stuff and Matt’s very good stuff, there is a difference in the lightning stuff of Madison Bumgarner and the good stuff possessed by Timmy Two.

As for the Giants’ organization teaching the change, I suspect they are indeed capable of doing so. But don’t think the Giants taught Tim Lincecum his change.

The Giants’ field management was ordered early on to leave Tim alone (in one of their best decisions ever, I might add). Tim did throw his explosive fastball and snap-nasty curve almost exclusively in 2006, but in his 2007 opener in Fresno, he struck out multiple batters with the change up he refined over the winter.

Then last winter he refined his slider, which is yet another swing-through pitch. It is the change up, though, that has become Lincecum’s go-to pitch, even more than the snap-nasty curve. (I just can’t get enough of saying that description, which was invented by Giants announcer and former player F.P. Santangelo.)

I believe more first-pitch strikes are the key to further improvement by Lincecum, just as I think the change up is the key to Alderson’s becoming a successful major league starter. Some would argue that if batters know Lincecum is consistently getting ahead of them with his first pitch they will look for it and pound it. I would ask them if they know how many of Tim’s 900+ first pitches were hit for extra bases.

My guess is that they would estimate it to be far higher than the 3 that it actually was. Yes, that is 3. I didn’t leave out a digit.

I do think batters will be offering at Tim’s first pitch more frequently next season. But offering at it and even putting it into play happened on only 8% of Tim’s pitches. Batters drove in all of 4 runs on Tim’s first pitches. Again, I didn’t leave off a digit.

Tim even struck out an amazing 55 batters on the very first pitch. Well, that I just made up, using his number (which seems appropriate given that in his fist major league start — which came on Willie Mays’ 76th birthday, May 6th — Tim pitched into the 5th inning, gave up 5 runs on 5 hits, walking 5 and fanning 5). Tim had made 5 starts for Fresno before being called up, and the Giants had used 5 starters. May is the 5th month.

If Tim is fortunate enough to one day make the Hall of Fame, I believe he will become the 5th SF Giants pitcher to do so (with Juan Marichal, Gaylord Perry, Warren Spahn and Steve Carlton being the others).

by sharksrog on Dec 26, 2008 4:37 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Good Stuff

very informative too. On the topic of the change up for “The Franchise” I mentioned what I did because I had read a little blurb early this past season (no link, sorry) where he credited the Giants staff with helping on the change. This, coupled with Giants history (going back to Roger Craig) of teaching an effective change up would lead me to believe that if there’s one pitch the Giants can help develop… it’s the change up.

This is the same reason why I’m hopeful for the Rule 5 pick up Perdomo. What I’ve read is that he’s got good stuff minus an effective change. It may be a good match up if he can hang around.

by dogdays on Dec 28, 2008 12:10 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Nice thoughts

Nice thoughts on Perdomo. I’ve forgotten the name of the guy I had hoped the Giants would take, but that guy was later drafted by the Brewers. After the draft, though, many teams said they were hoping to be able to draft Perdomo, so either a lot of teams are right about him (not just the Giants) or a lot of teams are wrong.

Regarding Lincecum and the change up, I didn’t see the link you refer to, but based on what I have read and heard, that might merely have been Tim being nice. I’m certainly not sure of that. I am sure, however, that despite what Mike Krukow says, Tim had the change up before he was called up by the Giants.

After being called up, Tim struggled a little with his control of the pitch and it took a while for Bengie Molina to realize how good it was, but I felt at the end of 2007 that Tim’s great curve had slumped a bit and that the change was actually his best out pitch. Now Tim calls it his go-to delivery.

The beauty of Tim’s change up is that not only does it have movement, but is is about 11 mph slower than his fastball. By comparison, Matt Cain’s change is only about 6 mph slower than the heater.

So Tim has the snappier curve, a more trustworthy slider, a fastball that is two mph quicker and a 5 mph greater speed differential between his heater and his change up.

That is why as fine a pitcher as Matt is, he isn’t likely to catch up to his fellow 24-year-old. IMO Jonathan Sanchez may actually have a higher ceiling than Matt.

If Matt is going to be a consistent All-Star candidate, he is almost certainly going to have to make a significant improvement in his control and his command. If Jonathan improves his control, he could be at least lights dim, if not lights out.

By the way, Tim was my breakout candidate for 2008. Jonathan is my near-breakout candidate for 2009 — assuming his arm stays healthy, which is a concern of mine.

by sharksrog on Dec 28, 2008 4:14 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

John, any thoughts on Hector Sanchez? I know he’s really far away and his defense at catcher is a bit rough, but a catching prospect that can hit for a good average with great discipline seems pretty interesting.

When I was a kid I used to pray every night for a new bicycle. Then I realized God doesn’t work that way, so I stole one and prayed for forgiveness. - Emo Philips

Neglectful father of David Quinowski

by marcello on Dec 24, 2008 1:56 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

And he's a switch hitter to boot!

Hector Sanchez: really getting tired of playing baseball in foreign countries...

by tedfordfan on Dec 24, 2008 2:20 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Tedford Fan

So Tedford Fan, how are you liking Jahvid Best? His 311-yard game in just over a half against Washington reminded me of Gale Sayers six-touchdown game as a rookie against the 49ers.

Now, back to baseball!

by sharksrog on Dec 28, 2008 4:15 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I should adopt him at mccoveychronicles as well.

Best is a beast. The only question is if he’ll lose a tick as he bulks up, and whether or not injuries will be a perennial problem because of his size. But he’s tough, runs hard, doesn’t go down easily, has absolutely rare speed in and out of pads, great vision and balance. To do what he did at the end of the season against teams that knew we couldn’t throw the ball to save our life…unbelievable talent.

I wonder if he can throw? Maybe we could just employ the Wildcat offense with him and Vereen behind center…

Hector Sanchez: really getting tired of playing baseball in foreign countries...

by tedfordfan on Dec 29, 2008 1:41 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

need more info… but I’ve been casting my vote for sanchez

by dogdays on Dec 24, 2008 4:01 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

MadBum

As good a prospect as Price…or could we see our first ever A+?

by rwperu34 on Dec 24, 2008 4:38 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

wouldn't go that far until he puts up the same numbers in AA

And I think John would point out injuries; nobody’s ever a lock to work things out in the majors. I haven’t been reading this site for that long, but if Lincecum didn’t get an A+, MadBum definitely won’t.

by boonitez on Dec 24, 2008 5:06 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

A+?

No one gets an A+ until I can perfect my time machine.

by John Sickels on Dec 24, 2008 5:10 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

What happens..

If he performs the same (or something like around a 2.00 ERA, still great walk and strikeout rates) in AA next year? I can’t see how you can say he stays the same. Sure, I guess he didn’t make any strides or anything.

The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."

by WalrusMan on Dec 24, 2008 8:46 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

:)

I was referring to Price as the potential A+, since he’s already everything MadBum dreams of becoming.

by rwperu34 on Dec 24, 2008 7:05 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

The Price is Right

I would take David Price over Madison Bumgarner. As for the A+, keep in mind that John ultimately downgraded Tim Lincecum from an A to an A-.

by sharksrog on Dec 25, 2008 4:28 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

My only quibble is pucetas, I think he would be borderline top ten and definitely belongs in the top 20. Everything else is within the realm of acceptability.

by zeisenbe on Dec 24, 2008 5:51 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Oversight?

I’m not as high on Kevin Pucetas as some, but I agree he would seem to belong in the top 20.

It’s good to see that the Giants actually finally HAVE some prospects!

by sharksrog on Dec 25, 2008 4:29 AM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

By the way

By the way, I would rank Kevin Pucetas ahead of Joe Martinez. I think each of them could be headed for the ROOGY position, but I think Kevin is the better of the two. Martinez has never shown a real ability to get lefty hitters out at any level in which he has pitched.

by sharksrog on Dec 28, 2008 4:18 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Jorge Bucardo should be a C or C+

struckout a guy per inning in rookieball and only walked 15 in 51 innings this year.

by Bravesin07 on Dec 25, 2008 8:52 AM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Jorge was my major sleeper pick for the system last year. He had a rough adjustment to playing in the US, but by the end of the season I think he was starting to show what he’s capable of. I really look for some big things from him this year. If he follows his brother’s path, he’ll stay in XST and go to short season NWL to compete against much older players.

Get the hell out the way Bengie, Pablito's hit the show!

by Roger on Dec 25, 2008 1:08 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Reportedly

he isn’t as highly regarded by scouts as his brother, Wilber.

Hector Sanchez: really getting tired of playing baseball in foreign countries...

by tedfordfan on Dec 25, 2008 4:09 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Best of the bunch

I believe Mr. Ed is the best of the bunch.

by sharksrog on Dec 26, 2008 2:19 AM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Gillaspie

What is his ETA to the majors? Is it possible Pablo winds up at 3b and Villalona at 1b? Would Gillaspie possibly move to 2b if that were the case or is he most likely a 3b?

by The Colonel on Dec 26, 2008 4:01 AM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Versatility

The Giants’ position prospects do have a bit of versatility, which should serve both them and the Giants well.

Angel Villalona is a first baseman — who used to be and apparently would like to again be a third baseman. AnVil is said to take ground balls at third on a daily basis. With his big bat and big size, AnVil appears ticketed for first base, but should the Giants draft a heavy-hitting first baseman with the #6 overall pick in 2009, who knows?

Pablo Sandoval has now played third base (his original position), catcher (his most valuable position) and first base (perhaps the position at which he looked best) in the major leagues in his brief time there. Pablo appears likely to be the Giants’ starting third baseman in 2009 — unless they trade for or sign a third baseman, in which case he would move over to first. If Bengie Molina were injured, Pablo would likely become the everyday catcher.

Unless, of course, Buster Posey were ready, in which case the Giants’ eventual catcher might be called up to start while Molina was out. Posey was an All-American shortstop as a freshman and has played each of the nine positions in a single game. It is possible the Giants will capitalize on both his and Sandoval’s versatility something like the Yankees once did with Yogi Berra and Elston Howard. Berra and Howard were mostly outfielders when not catching, but you get the idea.

Which brings us to Gillaspie. If Villona or a draftee plays first and Sandoval, Villalona or a combination of Sandoval and Posey plays third, where would that leave Conor? Well, Gillaspie has been said to be athletic enough to play second base, so perhaps he would switch to second.

Except that the Giants see Nick Noonan as their second baseman of the future. But there is also a possibility of Nick’s switching to shortstop, where his good hitting would stand out more.

But of course the Giants already have Emmanuel Burriss, Edihire Adrianza, Brandon Crawford, Brian Bocock (last year’s opening-day starter) and Charlie Culberson at short. And this spring they will have Kevin Frandsen, Eugenio Velez and Burriss battling for the starting position in 2009.

The Giants may be a little short on outfield prospects who haven’t already played at the major league level, but behind the dish and around the infield they have versatility — and more than a few legitimate prospects and a handful of suspects.

This is my round-about way of saying, yeah, Gillaspie could wind up at second base, although I would say the Giants still look at him as primarily a hot sacker.

by sharksrog on Dec 26, 2008 3:52 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Judd

Judd Hirsch is on Numbers now. Does that mean he has become a sabermetician?

by sharksrog on Dec 28, 2008 4:04 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

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