Community Project: Sleeper Alerts
by John Sickels on Dec 23, 2008 10:39 PM EST
Email
PrintI have a community project for you guys.
Here is the list of SLEEPER ALERT! players from the 2008 book.
Mike Anton, LHP
Antonio Bastardo, LHP
Jhoulys Chacin, RHP
Allen Craig, 3B
Michael Dunn, LHP
Charlie Furbush, LHP
Jeremy Hefner, RHP
David Hernandez, RHP
Kyle Kaminska, RHP
Mike McCardell, RHP
Logan Morrison,1B
David Robertson, RHP
Henry Rodriguez, RHP
Heath Rollins, RHP
Rocky Roquet, RHP
Marc Rzepczynski, LHP
James Skelton, C
Jeremy Slayden, OF
Mike Tarsi, LHP
There are other guys I mentioned as sleepers in their comments, but these are the guys I used the SLEEPER ALERT! headline on.
I need someone or multiple someones to go through the players on this list, and any other players you find in the 2008 book that I mentioned as sleepers within their comments, and see how these guys did, good or bad. I'm trying to find patterns of guys I'm right about, AND guys I'm wrong about, too, so do not worry about hurting my feelings about someone I was wrong about. This is how I improve my methods.
I'm trying to make the SLEEPER ALERTS a more formal process in the 2009 book, but I am extremely short of time and don't have the time to research what happened last year and to write the book at the same time. If you guys can help me out with this look backwards, it is much appreciated.
NOTE: I AM NOT LOOKING FOR 2009 SLEEPERS IN THIS THREAD! Those should be put in the organization threads, this thread is for guys listed as sleepers in 2008 or previous seasons, to see how they did.
32 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Heath Rollins: Great K:BB ratio in Vero(4.26:1), ERA of 3.30
Got 4 starts in Montgomery: 25IP, 3.83 K:BB ratio, 2.88 ERA. Looks like a hit for you.
Brad Ziegler had a scoreless inning streak. Brad Ziegler had not met BJ Upton.
from last year
Mike Anton- pitched quite well in A ball earlier in the season earning a call up to high A in mid-season. Didn’t pitch very well at all there although so/ip of 6 hr/ip of .1 and k/bb of 1.8 weren’t that awful. At best a half grade uptick although I think he is still a c.
Antonio Bastardo- Somewhat similar story to Anton but better. Was outstanding in 5 games in high A with outstanding ratios highlighted by 15k/9. Called up to AA he kept the hits under control and struck out 8 per nine innings, But control deserted him and he game up loads of home runs. You called him a C+ in your Phillies overview, same as last year and I won’t quibble.
I’ll try another batch but will post this. At least for these two no big jumps forward.
LAST YEAR
this was from LAST YEAR’S book. He wasn’t getting much press last year at this time.
by John Sickels on Dec 23, 2008 11:29 PM EST up reply actions
Wasn't Niese a sleeper?
Or am I thinking of the year before?
niese
I think Niese was 2007, or maybe even ‘06, don’t have time to look.
by John Sickels on Dec 23, 2008 11:47 PM EST up reply actions
more
Jhoulys Chacin- That one you complete nailed. From C+ to B+, #2 Rockies prospect and #26 on our community top 100 pretty much sums it up. 18-3 record at 2 levels with a 5/1 k/bb ratio and only 3 homeruns in 66 innings at the higher of the two levels (A+) are the the highlights for this guy who will be pitching and presumably expected to star in AA at only 21.
Allen Craig performed well, but not spectacularly well in AA last year. Nothing he did was bad and a 300 avg and an .867 OPS certainly arent bad at AA, and are undoubtedly good enough to earn a shot at AAA but less than 1 hr per 20, a bit less than one walk per ten at bats, not quite a 500 slugging average, no speed game with a clock that’s moving make you wonder whether he’s got quite enough going for him to be a major league regular. Probably good enough season to stay at B- although if he were to be moved off of that I can see at least as strong an argument for C+ as for B.
last two
Furbush- didn’t pitch last year because of Tommy John. I guess he is still asleep.
David Hernandez- worked out very well as a sleeper. Ratio essentially the same as 07, same 10.5 k/9, but much better success/luck in giving up hits and avoiding home runs dropped era from 4.95 to 2.68 despite increase in walk ratio to 4.5/9. Certainly better than a C as he was in 07 but a move past C+ into the b range seems aggressive given the control issues.
Logan Morrison
He really propelled himself into a legitimate major league regular
www.thebaseballuniverse.blogspot.com
Possibly in the future with Florida
www.thebaseballuniverse.blogspot.com
by prestonb1291 on Dec 31, 2008 11:16 PM EST up reply actions
I Should Have
said prospect instead of regular
www.thebaseballuniverse.blogspot.com
by prestonb1291 on Dec 31, 2008 11:16 PM EST up reply actions
2 Padres prospects: Pelzer & Bass
Wynn Pelzer: Is a RHP out of U. So Carolina, he was injured in college and wasn’t drafted very high (9th round in 2007 I think) and (of all people) Alan Dykstra lined a pitch off his knee in the Cape Cod league so he didn’t pitch after being drafted in ‘07. He’s somewhat of a power arm (low-mid 90’s FB)… His peripherals do not suggest dominance (7.54 K/9 & 8.82 H/9) but this was his first taste of pro ball.. He’s an interesting guy to watch.
Anthony Bass: Bass is 2008 draftee who dominated Northwest League competition out of the ‘pen. Unlike Pelzer, Bass’ stats scream dominance (10.75 K/9 & 6.55 H/9) but because he pitched out of the bullpen he did so under the radar. The only reason he pitched out of the ‘pen in ’08 was because the Padres wanted to limit his IP. Bass taught himself Lincecum’s throwing motion and features a 94 mph FB. The Padres will move him back to the starting rotation in 2009.
Randall Delgado
This kid is looking like a Feliz clone. His FB topped off at 96 though but his offspeed stuuf is more advanced at the age of 18. His command is still in question at this point just like Feliz’ at the same point in their careers.
SLEEPERS
I don’t really mean this threat to be about 2009 sleepers, I’m looking for analysis of past sleeper calls and if they worked or not.
I do agree about Pelzer, Bass, and Delgado being interesting, Delgado in particular looks quite strong.
My Apologies
He was my sleeper pick from 2008 that’s why I put him on here. I’ve tracked him, DiMaster Delgado and Luis Avilan since the DSL but Randall stood out to me.
So this might be totally off
But it seemed to be that a disproportionate number of the pitchers you gave B-s to but had “high ceilings” broke out. Obviously they’re higher-risk people, but that seemed to me to have been a much better bet than people you described as sleepers. I dont know if this will continue for next year, but thought I’d mention it
TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems
4 potential breakouts,,,
Craig Italiano, Matt Sulentic, Scott Cousins, John Tolisano
Italiano maybe, I don't know about Sulentic
If there is a sleeper in the A’s Organization, its Arnold Leon, who will be starting for the A’s in 2009, either in Stockton or Midland.
facepalm.jpg
They might be potential breakout guys
but Italiano & Sulentic can’t be sleepers, they were drafted too high…
I need someone or multiple someones to go through the players on this list, and any other players you find in the 2008 book that I mentioned as sleepers within their comments, and see how these guys did, good or bad. I’m trying to find patterns of guys I’m right about, AND guys I’m wrong about, too, so do not worry about hurting my feelings about someone I was wrong about. This is how I improve my methods.
Judging by how many responses that have had readers projecting their 2009 sleepers, I don’t many people understood the true intention of this post, so I’ll bite:
I’m going to break up the aforementioned list of prospects into subjective (but hopefully agreeable) categories based on their performance.
Signicantly Improved Stock
Jhoulys Chacin – Has vaulted himself into one of baseball’s top pitching prospects.
Logan Morrison – Has vaulted himself into one of baseball’s top hitting prospects.
David Hernandez – Turned a mediocre ’07 around into a very good ’08 season, showing good to excellent peripherals across the board and has an outside chance to make the Baltimore rotation out of ST.
Held their ground
Antonio Bastardo – Passed the double-A transition fairly well, maintaining a good k-rate and BAA. However, his homer-rate looks atrocious (no doubt due to his strong flyball tendencies) and his control (from a statistical point of view) doesn’t seem to be improving. He looks like a promising bullpen arm at this point unless he improves on those two aspects of his game.
Allen Craig – Still seems to be underrated even though he’s proven to be a capable hitter, though the little I know about his defense seems a little to be desired. Craig also passed the AA-transition, showing only a 40 point decrease (.040) in his slugging while his other numbers stayed practically the same from his FSL ‘07 campaign. A .867 OPS from a player’s first full season in AA at the hot corner should make him a viable position player for St. Louis.
Michael Dunn – Maintained a good k-rate in the FSL and did a good job of keeping the ball in the park (10 homers in 140+ IP) and at 23 years old playing in his first full season at AA next year, he’s hardly old for the league. Looks like he could develop into a solid mid/back-end starter.
Jeremy Hefner – Significantly increased his workload to 140+ IP and the component ratios all pretty much held steady – still struck out a batter an innning, walk rate decreased a little while hit rate increased a little. Started one game in the Cal league.
Mike McCardell – I’ve actually wondered the lack of love on John’s part – he had a strong season in Beloit with very impressive K:BB numbers (almost 6:1) and striking out more than a batter an inning. I admit he’s not exactly a spring chicken and has strong flyball tendencies, but a plain C grade seems a little low to me.
David Robertson – Robertson absolutely tore through the minors last year. Staring off in AA, he ended up in the Yankees bullpen by the end of the year. Had a 1.68 ERA in 55+ cumulative innings with 77 Ks and a paltry .151 BAA. His short stint in the majors had some ups and downs, but he should factor in the Yankees bullpen this year.
Henry Rodriguez – Not only did he survive the Cal league, he did so in surprising fashion, striking out over a 100 batters in 75 innings while only allowing a .208 batting average. However, he did not fare well in his promotion to AA, seeing his BAA balloon to over .300 and his walk rate skyrocketed to allowing more than a walk an inning (44:43 BB:K rate in 41 IP). At 21, he has time to adjust.
Heath Rollins – Looks like a solid innings eater in the future.
Rocky Roquet – Should get some action in the Cubs’ pen this season. At 26, looks like a decent middle relief prospect.
Marc Rzepczynski – Very good GB ratio coupled with strong components across the board (only 2 homers in 120+ IP!) mean he’ll stay as a good sleeper candidate for this year.
James Skelton – The most sought after player (by this site’s commotion) in the recent rule V draft, Skelton shows good contact hitting ability, plate discipline, and exceptional athleticism for a catcher.
Jeremy Slayden – Old for his league (26 in AA) but actually showed across-the-board improvement in his AA-transition. Looks like a potential 4th OF.
Injury excuse
Charlie Furbush – As mentioned earlier in this thread, DNP due to TJ surgery.
Regressed performance
Mike Anton – Though his ERA looked good in low-A, his K-rate dropped sharply over the year before and got hit quite hard in the Cal league upon his promotion. While a 15-game sample wouldn’t normally be damning, he is already 23 and the sharp drops in his component ratios don’t bode well for him.
Kyle Kaminska – Still young at 20, but his first season out of rookie ball was not a good one. Statistically Kaminska still shows signs of promise – he doesn’t walk a lot of batters and his k-rate is good, but he was way too hittable in class A ball, with a BAA of .332, leading to a terrible 6.54 ERA and 13 dingers in 85 IP.
Mike Tarsi – Shows a good GB ratio and a good K:BB rate as well, but was way too hittable (.314 BAA in Low-A) at his age (22) to be considered a good prospect. Still obviously has time to turn it around, but early full-season results were not good.
on Roquet
Spent time in High A and AA again (bulk in AA). The stuff is there (54 K’s in 48.2 innings in AA – 9.99 K/9, comparable to his 9.53 K/9 in 39.2 AA innings last year). Doesn’t give up the long ball. If there is one problem, it’s that the walk rate got worse this year, at 4.99 BB/9 in AA. Overall, I agree he probably stayed at the same level, but those walks concern me. Best case scenario – probably a setup arm. Likely, inconsistent middle reliever, poor man’s Kyle Farnsworth perhaps. I imagine he’ll start 2009 in AAA, potentially as the closer there, with a shot at the bigs at some point, depending on how things go.
Roquet's walk rate
Isolate his August numbers. Only three walks in 15 2/3 IP, with 21 Ks. Promising in two respects: 1) Strong finish to the season. 2) Demonstrates the ability to lock in control-wise.
Here's hoping he can continue that
If he can, the Cubs might have a decent small trade asset, because, with control, Roquet looks like a setup man, with borderline closing ability.
Allen Craig
Could very well get buried in the Cards system. Was already third on the 3B depth chart behind Troy Glaus and David Freese to start ‘08, then was surpased by Brett Wallace. I think he has the bat to be considered a legit 1B prospect, but obviously blocked there by Albert Pujols. Only way he sees the big leagues as a Cardinal is in left field. His value would skyrocket in my book if he were traded to an organization like the Mariners or Giants who don’t have a definative big-league first baseman.
+1
Agree on just about all of these. I think you’d have to say Robertson’s stock has risen though; he has a very good chance of being part of the Yankees pen right out of ST.
by CapgrasDelusion on Dec 24, 2008 9:36 AM EST up reply actions
Jason Knapp
not talked about alot.Also Brett Duvall
a few others...
1. David Bromberg
2. Brandon Guyer
3. Larry Suarez
4. Clark Murphy
5. Robert Brooks
EVERYBODY PLEASE READ
He is NOT looking for 2009 sleepers. He is asking everybody to look at the performance of the 2008 sleepers from his 2008 book he mentioned on his list above (this was for 2008 performance in 2008, so no need to do anything else but consider 2008 stats, 2008 scouting reports, etc.) to give some feedback on how they did in 2008.
Look at grudyfan’s post to see what John is asking for here.
2008.
And in summary, 2008.
(reading comprehension continues to die a slow painful death around here)
David Robertson
Robertson has dominated at every level. His numbers are consistently ridiculous. His major league debut was up and down as he struggled, was sent down, made adjustments and did well in his second call up.
He has a very good curve, but he only humps his fastball up there at 90mph, which does not quite match up to his scary k numbers. I don’t know whether he can continue to maintain his excellence at the highest level with his stuff. His heater is a two-seamer with pretty good sink, so maybe he can get away with it. His ceiling is probably that of a good setup guy, not a legit closer.
David Bromberg - SP
Is A great Young Pitcher in A ball….
He Actually Impresses some coaches more with his Bat Skills hitting over the fence in BP continually, but his K:BB rates are pretty decent, while his K rates per 9 IP are the best I’ve seen in a while for someone in the Twins Organization….that low in the minors…
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Dec 24, 2008 7:15 PM EST reply actions
Marc Rzepczynski
The only guy I know, had a great year, so I think you nailed it with him. Have to wait and see what he does in high A, and hopefully AA, next year.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
