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Prospect Smackdown: Dexter Fowler v. Daryl Jones

When I sat down to analyze these two players, I figured the numbers would be interesting.  While these two guys seem to have similar toolsets, they are also somewhat different players in terms of what scouts seem them as in the future.  If you're confused, just read on.

 

Star-divide

Background

Fowler - 6'4", 175 lbs, born 3/22/86.  Selected in the 14th round of the 2004 draft and bats switch.

Jones - 5'11", 180 lbs, born 6/25/87.  Selected in the 3rd round of the 2005 draft and bats

If I recall correctly, both turned down football scholarships to play baseball.  I know Jones did for sure.  Scouts drool over both of these guys' toolsets, as they both seem to have that "5 tool" potential.  Fowler's frame though is significantly larger, and scouts unanimously believe that he will flash significantly more power once starts growing more into that frame.  Meanwhile, Jones is pretty built as-is.  He actually weighs more despite being 5 inches shorter.  Based on frame alone, I would say Fowler has more power potential.

2007 Results

Fowler - Posted a .273/.397/.367 line at Modesto (Cal League).  In 245 ABs, he had a 64:44 K:BB ratio, 2 HRs, 7 2Bs, 5 3Bs and 20 SBs.  His IsoP was .094 - not very good for the Cal league.  He also suffered a broken hand that caused his season to end early.

Jones - Posted a .217/.304/.296 line at Quad Cities (Midwest League).  In 419 ABs, he had a 94:41 K:BB ratio, 4 HRs, 15 2Bs, 3 3Bs and 22 SBs.  His IsoP was .079 - not good but not horrible for the pitching-slanted MWL. 

Both guys after 2007 were looked upon as guys with all the tools to make it, but both struggled mightily. 

2008 Results

Fowler - Posted a .335/.431/.515 line at Tulane (Texas League).  In 421 ABs, he had a 89:65 K:BB ratio, 9 HR, 31 2Bs, 9 3Bs and 20 SBs.  His IsoP was .180 - an impressive number given his age and speed. 

Jones - Posted a .316/.407/.483 line split between the FSL and Texas League.  He compiled 307 ABs in the FSL (a very pitcher-friendly league) and 124 ABs in the Texas League.  His IsoP was .150 in the FSL and .210 in AA - good for a .167 blended rate.  He had 13 HRs, 17 2Bs, 8 3Bs and 24 SBs, with a 97:55 K:BB ratio. 

Both guys had outstanding years.  In roughly the same number of total ABs, they had basically the same number of Ks, with Fowler having 10 more walks.  Still, Jones has shown a lot of patience himself.  Both have flashed very good speed, with Jones grading out slightly ahead due to the success rate on SBs (24/30 vs. 20/28 for Fowler in 2008).  The power displayed in 2008 was roughly equivalent, with Jones hitting more HRs but Fowler having a ton more 2Bs.  That 31 2B total supports the argument that Fowler will likely flash more power down the road, as those 2B typically starting turning into HR as the player gets stronger and learns to square the bat more with experience.

Conclusions

Fowler definitely has more power potential.  He could legitimately become a 25 HR guy in the bigs.  Meanwhile, Jones is more likely to top out around 15 or so.  They are fairly equal in the speed category, with Jones having a small handful more SBs.  If Fowler has 25/40 potential, I would feel comfortable saying Jones has 15/50 potential.  Defensively, Jones is good but he has been playing LF.  I am sure at least part of the reason for it is the existence of Colby Rasmus.  That being said, Fowler has the definite advantage here.  His D in CF has been labelled as potential gold-glove caliber. 

Basically, we are  saying offensively the difference between the two is what we all thought Carl Crawford could be  vs. what he actually was in his first few years.  The gap exists, but I do not think it is as big as a lot of "experts" have made it out to be.  Assuming Fowler is a top 10 prospect, then Jones should be a top 50 guy.  Jones is a full year younger than Fowler, reached the same level as Fowler, and brings a somewhat similar game to the table.

As always, if you disagree with a point that was made feel free to discuss. 

0 recs  |  Comment 28 comments

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In an ideal world

Note the word ideal above

Daryl Jones = Johnny Damon

Dexter Fowler = Carlos Beltran

The Dodgers won't win a playoff series until the Cool-a-Coo returns.

by mckeeno on Dec 23, 2008 3:38 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

How did...

you figure that? Fowler will never hit even close to 40 homers. Daryl Jones to Johnny Damon is probably better but i still don’t see it.

by joegonzo on Dec 23, 2008 4:29 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

More like

Fowler = Damon, with
Jones = Brian Roberts in the OF

The only prospect in baseball that I’d throw a Beltran comp is Colby Rasmus, but I am a BIG Rasmus believer.

by Take3 on Dec 23, 2008 7:16 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

No chance Jones ever gets 50 SB. Not that it matters that much, but just saying.

by bigboy1234 on Dec 23, 2008 3:46 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

I love DJ

But I think 35-40 SBs is more reasonable with 15-20 HRs. Excellent ballplayer.

Now raise your goblet of rock. It's a toast to those who rock!

by Dewey Finn on Dec 23, 2008 3:55 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Hell I think that may even be too optimistic, I wouldn’t be comfortable at all going over 35. In 1367 minor league PA he has 61 SB and 24CS. Honestly I’m not even sure if he’s faster than Fowler, who has 101 SB and 48 CS in 1514 minor league PA.

by bigboy1234 on Dec 23, 2008 4:11 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Springfield kind of skews those ISO numbers...

As well as an unsustainable BABIP for Jones. He had a .648 road OPS vs. a .903 road OPS for Fowler. I think Jones is at least worth considering for the top 100, but the difference between these two is wider than a first look might indicate.

by Rox Girl on Dec 23, 2008 4:00 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Attack of the small sample. I’m sure we can just throw out that .365/.500/.651 line because of silly Springfield.

Palm Beach kind of screws with hitters too on the road in the FSL he had .359/.431/.545.

by bigboy1234 on Dec 23, 2008 4:06 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, I should have had some sort of caveat there...

His FSL performance is what lands him in a top 100 conversation and I’m really curious what his 2009 will show. 2008 was a weird year with a vast majority of the elite pitching at the A+ level concentrated in Cal League, so I’m afraid to get too bullish on FSL hitters just yet.

by Rox Girl on Dec 23, 2008 4:14 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Palm Beach Park Factors

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/2008_minor_league_park_multipliers/

Palm Beach HR = .80

That tells me Palm Beach significantly shrinks the number of HRs a player hits.

Springfield HR = 1.32

Exact opposite effect.

So actually, due to the distribution of Jones’ ABs, his 13 HR total for the year is likely a true reflection of his real power. He hit 7 HR in 300 ABs in a very, very tough hitting environment and 6 HRs in 125 ABs in a very favorable hitting environment.

Keep in mind those park factors are based on 2008 results, which negates your comment on all the good pitchers being in the Cal league.

I think Jones has more power than a lot of people give him credit for.

by guru4u on Dec 24, 2008 9:53 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Those park factors don't negate varying competition levels between leagues...

They have nothing to do with them, actually. They state how the park played compared to the rest of that specific league. It would take another level of adjustment to compare parks across leagues, which Szymborski has done in the past but doesn’t show here, and even that doesn’t factor in competition level.

There just wasn’t a whole lot of pitching talent in the FSL this season, one need look no further than the FSL All-Star box to see that. Did the league have any top 100 pitchers besides Porcello? Jones’ seven HR’s in Palm Beach were mostly against pitchers that don’t profile as major leaguers, except for two quality relief prospects in Jose Ceda and Ivan Nova as far as I can tell. I love his athleticism and what he showed this season, but it’s a little too early to consider him a top 50 prospect.

by Rox Girl on Dec 24, 2008 11:28 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Uh

So Daryl Jones’ .399 BABIP in Springfield is unsustainable but Dexter Fowler’s .409 in Tulsa is what? Par for the course?

TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems

by OldProspects on Dec 25, 2008 7:44 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Fowler's BABIP in Tulsa was .375

His road BABIP was .439. Since I’m talking about a home park effect for Jones inflating those numbers, it doesn’t seem to be the same principle that’s applying here, but since you’re changing the subject, no, Fowler’s cumulative AA BABIP is not sustainable.

by Rox Girl on Dec 25, 2008 10:55 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I'm a little confused

I thought the whole point of this diary to compare Fowler with Jones. I feel like I have offended you somehow – I apologize. It wasn’t my intention

Yes, Fowler’s BABIP was higher on the road than at home, but over the whole year, his BABIP at home was indentical to Jones’. The only difference between the two in BABIP, is that Fowler’s road BABIP was 60 points higher.

I’m really not certain what the point of this whole exercise is. As we both know and have said, both of their BABIPs were excessively high and will drop, meaning that both of their numbers are inflated. This doesn’t mean that Fowler isn’t better than Jones, but just that using BABIP as evidence is a bit disingenuous.

TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems

by OldProspects on Dec 26, 2008 12:15 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Miscommunication...

The wires just got a little crossed is all, and I probably was too snippy in my defense. There was no offense taken. I should elaborate, what I was meaning, though. High BABIP’s at the minor league level could mean any number of things, if a player has a consistently high BABIP home and away, vs. LHP’s and RHP’s, it probably means that player is too good for the level. I think this was the case with Fowler last season. He certainly won’t hit like that at the major league level, but I would suspect if you put him back in Tulsa in 2009, his BABIP would be just about as high.

With Jones, I simply don’t know yet. I pointed out the home BABIP because there’s a vast discrepancy there between that and his road numbers. Since Springfield is a hitting friendly environment, he could be taking advantage to inflate the numbers superficially, or it actually could be just an SSS issue that’s unfairly deflating his road figures and he’s really as good as he looks at Springfield. Going back to the FSL numbers doesn’t resolve the issue for me because of the weakness of that league’s pitching in 2008. It’s that measure of uncertainty more than anything that keeps him from being an elite prospect for me at this point, but his scouting reports and physical traits and performance to date have him in a category that could rise to elite status in 2009. I certainly don’t fault Cardinals fans or others who do see him as elite right now, were he a Rockies prospect, I might feel the same way, but from an outside vantage point there’s enough unknown there to have him a little lower on my totem pole.

by Rox Girl on Dec 26, 2008 2:10 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Np

I’m not a Cardinals or a Rockies fan, so maybe that’s why I’m frankly unconvinced about both. I think they’re good prospects who could very well be good major league hitters, but they don’t strike me as being significantly better than Austin Jackson. But I tend to agree with what you write, so maybe you’re right on this one too

TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems

by OldProspects on Dec 27, 2008 6:17 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Jones v Fowler

Jones walks a little less, strikes out a little more, has less power potential, plays an easier position and not as well … on one hand you can say it’s not a huge gap, but I look at it and I see a lot of little gaps adding up to a big one. Especialy important is the CF vs LF issue. I don’t buy that the Cards would keep Jones in LF b/c of Rasmus unless the two were on the same minor league team, it just doesn’t make any sense. What if Rasmus is a bust? Would you rather have a LF who needs to learn CF or a CF who needs to learn LF?

by jayjay on Dec 23, 2008 4:15 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

+1

you nailed it

I agree - Noonan is as valuable as a dead horse… and he too should be beaten by some dude in a top hat who looks like he’s holding his junk.

by cool hand Charlie on Dec 23, 2008 6:29 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Rasmus isn't the only good CFer we have

The Cardinals also have Jon Jay who is a stellar defensively in CF. Jon Jay imo is very under rated and will be a solid MLBer.

Stat Whore

by FlimtotheFlam on Dec 23, 2008 10:16 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Response

Preface: I’m a big Jones fan. I like Fowler a lot as well but as a consensus top 25 prospect – he doesn’t need the recognition like Jones does.

Even though I am probably less of an ARL believer than most, I think that the 15 month difference in age is pretty significant in this case. As you mentioned, Jones was a duel sport guy that only recently started focusing on football. Thus, the fact that he has translated athleticism to baseball skills while moving up levels is very impressive to me. I like Jones in the 35-45 range and I think that his upside is probably a better version of Coco Crisp…

by Dfarth on Dec 23, 2008 6:20 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Exactly

Two points that I think a lot of us overlook: Jones is 15 months younger and he just started focusing solely on baseball in 2006. Keeping that in mind, he had a very, very impressive second full year of professional baseball. If I were a Cards fan, I would be VERY excited about Jones.

by guru4u on Dec 24, 2008 9:55 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Saw Jones a couple times last year in the FSL. Good, but didn’t stand out THAT much.

by Forza Hudd on Dec 23, 2008 9:28 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Jones Comparison

I’ve been comparing Daryl Jones to Kenny Lofton since he was drafted in 2005.

I see Jones becoming a .290-.300, 10-15 HR, .365+ OBP, 25-30 SB hitter/runner in the future. Pretty much the Cardinals leadoff hitter of the future. Some want to put Colby Rasmus in that spot but it’d be a waste of 30 HR power much like with Alfonso Soriano.

I don’t see Jones stealing as many bases as some might think(40-50) until Tony LaRussa leaves(and that could be soon). TLR is a hit and run kinda guy and really the Cardinals system is as well.

As a Cards fan, I’m looking forward to a future top of the order looking like this:
1: Daryl Jones-LF
2: Brett Wallace-3B
3: Albert Pujols-1B
4: Colby Rasmus-CF

by UncleBuck44 on Dec 23, 2008 10:37 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

On the order

I think I would personally rather have Wallace’s power (it should be more than Rasmus) hitting clean-up, although this is only posisble if Wallace can stay at the hot corner

by Navi's_Navy on Dec 23, 2008 10:51 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I'd switch Wallace and Rasmus as well

As a Cards fan, I’d love to see those 4 at the top of the lineup in the future.

I agree with UncleBuck’s projections for Jones. I’d take those numbers any day.

by cardinalpride on Dec 24, 2008 2:10 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I think Jones/Jennings is a better comp

It’s unfair to Jones to put him up against Fowler right now. If Fowler is an A, Jones is a B or B+.

I wrote this back in July discussing Jones and how I would rather have him right now over Jennings.

Jones vs. Jennings

Mike Newman
baseballhandyman.com

by Baseball Handyman on Dec 26, 2008 10:44 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

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