Fantasy draft: MadBum or Hanson

by rutgersjpm on Dec 23, 2008 10:25 AM EST Comment 26 comments

I know some of you don't like the fantasy stuff being posted on the board, but a little input would be extremely helpful. I have the 2nd pick in our minor league fantasy draft in an NL only league. I am currently torn between taking Madison Bumgarner or Tommy Hanson. The only other guys who one might consider taking at that spot and are still available are Pedro Alvarez, Mat Gamel and Jhoulys Chacin. So I ask the community, who should I draft? Keep in mind that we get points for K's and that we only have 7 MiLB roster spots, 5 of which are currently taken. My pitching isn't the greatest and I'm leaning towards Hanson due to the high probability of him being in the bigs before the years out. What's your take?

Poll

Who should I draft?

Madison Bumgarner

125 votes

Tommy Hanson

88 votes

Other

32 votes

245 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs | Comment 26 comments

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Comments

Alvarez

He’ll be a beast and will probably need 1 season (or less) in the minors before he’s up.

by spoondoggie on Dec 23, 2008 10:29 AM EST reply actions 1 recs

+1

When in doubt, go with the bat. It’s much easier to build a rotation in fantasy than it is to come up with impact hitters. Hanson and Bumgarner have enough question marks to where a hitter with Alvarez’ potential should easily be more valuable. The Pirates said just recently that they’re going to fast-track Alvarez as much as possible, so there’s every reason to think he’s going to be on your team in 2010 if there are no big hiccups.

by DrunkIrish on Dec 23, 2008 11:02 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I agree

Unless pitching is wildly overvalued (like it is in one of my leagues), go with bats. I’d say Alvarez. I really don’t like Gamel, so if he’s the only other hitter available, I’d go then Bumgarner and then Hanson

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by OldProspects on Dec 23, 2008 11:36 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

+1

by killa on Dec 23, 2008 11:17 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

+1

always go for the bat. Alvarez is the safe pick

by goblue1 on Dec 23, 2008 1:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

+1

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Dec 23, 2008 2:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

+1

would pick Alvarez without a doubt. Great hitter who should be up by next year and is a safer bet then either of the other two with just as good of an upside.

by joegonzo on Dec 23, 2008 4:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Depends what you're looking for

If you want someone who will contribute soon, go with Chacin. He’s got the best combination of upside/readiness. If you want the biggest upside, take MadBum. If you want a bat, take Alvarez.

by RedSoxFaithful on Dec 23, 2008 10:49 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

-1

Stay away from Rockies’ starters in fantasy, until one actually disproves this rule.

by DrunkIrish on Dec 23, 2008 11:02 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

rockies starters

Aaron Cook seemed to do pretty well last year and Francis the year before him. It can be done in col. if you are the right type of pitcher and Chacin is perfect. His GO/AO was 2.83 and he gets K’s. His style of pitching will translate well to the rockies and he’ll always get good run support.

by PhillyPhanatic on Dec 23, 2008 3:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Pitching

I would prefer to go after pitching due to the fact that 80% of my minor leaguers are offensive players and my pitching needs more work than my offense. But, the last thing you want to do is let one of these picks go to waste. I like Hanson more than Chacin due to the K’s and Chacin being in Colorado. I know his ground ball rate is insane, so if he’s there in the second round I’ll grab him, but he’s not worthy of the second pick in my opinion. MadBum is 19 and a lot can go wrong before he’s ready to contribute in the majors.

by rutgersjpm on Dec 23, 2008 11:26 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

for the record

I voted for MadBum, he’s gonna be a beast… i was just arguing that chacin is good and has a chance in col. but id take madbum anyday

by PhillyPhanatic on Dec 23, 2008 8:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Pedro

I agree with spoondoggie….look back at the list of top pitching prospects on the Baseball America Top 100 through the years. In fact, when I typed that, I decided to look back. Here’s the list of pitchers that have been in the top 10 prospects since BA started doing this in 1993:

Ryan Anderson (3 times)
Todd Van Poppel (2)
Roger Salkeld (2)
Arthur Rhodes (2)
Brien Taylor (2)
Kerry Wood (2)
Matt White (2)
Kris Benson (2)
Josh Beckett (2)
Homer Bailey (2)
Steve Avery
Kiki Jones
Frankie Rodriguez
Pedro Martinez
Jason Bere
Allen Watson
Tyrone Hill
James Baldwin
Jose Silva
Paul Wilson
Alan Benes
Livan Hernandez
Carl Pavano
Rick Ankiel
Bruce Chen
Brad Penny
Matt Clement
John Patterson
Jon Rauch
Ben Sheets
C.C. Sabathia
Juan Cruz
Mark Prior
Jesse Foppert
Jose Contreras
Gavin Floyd
Francisco Rodriguez
Greg Miller
Edwin Jackson
Felix Hernandez
Scott Kazmir
Francisco Liriano
Chad Billingsley
Justin Verlander
Matt Cain
Phil Hughes
Andrew Miller
Joba Chamberlain
Clay Buchholz
Clayton Kershaw
Franklin Morales
David Price
Daisuke Matsuzaka

Pretty hit and miss, ain’t it? You can look up the hitters yourself, but trust me, it’s a much more impressive list.

by mac37203 on Dec 23, 2008 11:34 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Of course

This assumes that their methodology for evaluating pitchers hasn’t gotten better over the years

I ♥ Trent Edwards' groin

by Wonko on Dec 23, 2008 12:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Maybe....

But check me in a couple of years on Bailey, Buchholz, Morales and A. Miller. Those were just in the last year or two, and I wouldn’t bet on one of them to be a star. Back in the day, people were losing their minds over Greg Miller, Paul Wilson, Rick Ankiel, etc. My point is that a lot can and does wrong with these guys.

by mac37203 on Dec 23, 2008 2:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

What if we just weight Hanson vs. Bumgarner

I would think Hanson is closer to the majors and should have a better offense that would help him rack up some win totals.

I ♥ Trent Edwards' groin

by Wonko on Dec 23, 2008 12:30 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Voted Bumgarner

He’s further away from the bigs, but since your team really needs pitching, I would go with him. I like Hanson a lot, but Bumgarner has the potential to be a true ace, while Hanson is likely to be more of a #2 starter. In situations like these in fantasy baseball, I always go upside over certainty (especially in shallow leagues).

by guru4u on Dec 23, 2008 12:38 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Exact opposite...

of my view, at least.

Since you have limited roster space (face it, no league I have seen out there can match the 100+ minor leaguers that real teams have), I always believe in using those spots on guys you know that can be productive in the majors. We don’t have the luxury of being able to let a kid stay in the minors for five years until they develop. I try to stay mostly in AA and AAA (occasionally I will draft HiA or LoA players if they have tremendous upside and production, but I have more than 7 minor league spots) to lessen the uncertainty and risk.

"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile

by Boxkutter on Dec 23, 2008 2:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Actually it depends

on what your Major League roster looks like. If you’re stocked with solid players already, it pays to take upside risks with your minor leaguers, since you can afford to let them develop and even if the “known” quantities pan out, they may be no better than equivalent replacements for the players you already have. In that situation, it pays to make the upside play, looking for a graduate who’ll be better than the player he’d be replacing.

If, on the other hand, your Major League roster is weak, or has real holes at certain positions, it makes more sense to grab the “sure thing” rather than the upside play.

by Locke000 on Dec 24, 2008 11:12 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

My sentiments exactly...

It’s hard to turn down MadBum due to his insane ceiling, but I inherited a horrible team two years ago. First year was rough, hadn’t played fantasy baseball in a while, let alone a league as intricate as ours. Last year we started hot, but fell off thanks to injuries and a couple budget pitchers imploding. My bats are pretty good (ie: McCann, Utley, Casey Blake, Derek Lee) with a slew of OF’s on my minor league roster who I plan on contributing in the very near future (Maybin, McCutchen, F-Mart, Vitters). It’s a 12 team league. We carry a 25 man roster (15 bats, 10 pitchers) and have a salary cap, so to have McCann and Utley in spots that don’t provide much fantasy value is pretty big. I kinda have a 3 year plan right now, with 2009 being a playoff year hopefully. In order to make that happen, I’d like some talent to produce now, hence me leaning towards Hanson. Hopefully the guy with the 1st pick overall makes my decision for me.

by rutgersjpm on Dec 24, 2008 12:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Why

Why does MadBum have a chance to be a true ace and Hanson does not.

Arbitrary, IMO.

by parish on Dec 23, 2008 3:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Because a lot of scouts said that before...

he started throwing his slider again. When he was a RHP with a low 90’s fastball, a plus curve, and an average change up, his ceiling probably was a #2 pitcher. Now that he added a plus plus slider that BA ranks as the best in the Braves system and which they compare to Smoltz’s to his arsenal, the idea that he couldn’t become an ace seems overly conservative.

I also put a lot more stock in his AFL performance than most because I think he was adding the slider on the fly midseason last year and struggled to throw the slider with consistency. I think his AFL performance is partly indicative of better consistency with the pitch, and the reports I’ve seen don’t seem to disagree with that. The fact that he was capable of dominating pretty good players to that extent showed a lot to me.

by nixa37 on Dec 23, 2008 4:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Good rule for fantasy

When dealing with minor leaguers, put an exaggerated fantasy value on guys who are close to the majors. Trying to predict a player’s performance from year to year when they’re already in the majors is hard enough. Adding in the need to project a player’s performance (not to mention their continued good health, which is a huge deal with pitchers) across higher levels of competition is an unnecessary chore, and one that can be detrimental to your team.

by mrkupe on Dec 23, 2008 1:39 PM EST reply actions 0 recs