Chicago White Sox Top 20 Prospects for 2009
by John Sickels on Dec 22, 2008 2:43 PM EST
64 comments
The first White Sox baseball card I owned was a 1977 Ken Kravec
All grades are EXTREMELY PRELIMINARY and subject to change. Don’t get too worried about exact rankings at this point, especially once you get out of the top 10. Grade C+/C guys are pretty interchangeable depending on what you are looking for.
1) Gordon Beckham, SS, Grade B+: Very advanced prospect with across-the-board skills. Could get to A- next year.
2) Aaron Poreda, LHP, Grade B+: Power lefty was a bit more polished than anticipated. Does he start or relieve?
3) Tyler Flowers, C, Grade B: Impressive power bat acquired in Vasquez deal.
4) Brandon Allen, 1B, Grade C+: Enormous raw power, but high strikeout rate is concerning.
5) Clayton Richard, LHP, Grade C+: Throws strikes, nice sinker, not a big margin for error.
6) Jordan Danks, OF, Grade C+: Excellent tools, played well in pro debut, and I still think he can show some power eventually.
7) Chris Getz, 2B, Grade C+: Nice contact hitter, should be useful but not a star.
8) John Shelby, OF, Grade C+: Good tools, has speed and power, but strike zone judgment may hold him back.
9) Jose Martinez, OF, Grade C+: Good tools, season cut short by knee injury. Will power come?
10) Dayan Viciendo, 3B, Grade C+: Wild guess on grade and rating. Scouting reports indicate Angel Villalona type, but who knows?
11) Brent Morel, 3B, Grade C+: Nice debut. Joe Randa type?
12) Dan Hudson, RHP, Grade C+: I think he is a major sleeper.
13) Dexter Carter, RHP, Grade C: Excellent pro debut following horrible college season. Which is the real Carter?
14) Jeff Marquez, RHP, Grade C: Sinkerball guy acquired in Swisher deal.
15) Jon Link, RHP, Grade C: Another guy with a power sinker, good Double-A season, could slot into pen.
16) Cole Armstrong, Grade C: White Sox seem to like him but I have big doubts about his bat.
17) Justin Cassel, RHP, Grade C: Another guy who could be a nice solid utility pitcher.
18) Jack Egbert, RHP, Grade C: Another guy who could be a nice solid utility pitcher.
19) John Ely, RHP, Grade C: Another guy who could be a nice solid utility pitcher.
20) Jon Gilmore, 3B, Grade C: Young 3B acquired in Vasquez deal. Changing grade from C+ to C due to rawness but I still think he could develop.
Others: Lance Broadway, RHP; Jorge Castillo, 1B-C; Eduardo Escobar, SS; Nevin Griffith, RHP; Lucas Harrell, RHP; Leroy Hunt, RHP; Tyler Kuhn, SS-2B: Brent Lillibridge, SS: Santo Luis, RHP; Jhonny Nunez, RHP: Brian Omogrosso, RHP; Drew O’Neil, RHP, Santos Rodriguez, LHP; Clevelan Santeliz, RHP; Juan Silvero, SS: Carlos Torres, RHP; Kenny Williams, OF.
As usual, don’t sweat so much about where the Grade C+/C types rank exactly on this list. After I get past the top 10 I don’t worry so much about exact placement, since I’m trying to concentrate on the book right now.
SYSTEM IN BRIEF
The White Sox have two potential impact players in Beckham and Poreda, followed by two guys with big power but question marks in Flowers and Allen, then the super toolsy but hard to predict Danks. After that things tail off fast. Getz is okay.
Reports on these guys and over 1,000 others can be found in the2009 Baseball Prospect Book. Pre-order for January 31st shipping now!
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Jack Egbert
should be at least higher than Marquez
by Daniel Berlyn on Dec 22, 2008 3:27 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
“As usual, don’t sweat so much about where the Grade C+/C types rank exactly on this list. After I get past the top 10 I don’t worry so much about exact placement, since I’m trying to concentrate on the book right now.”
by thejd44 on Dec 22, 2008 6:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Eh
I personally consider Egbert top ten in the system
by Daniel Berlyn on Dec 22, 2008 7:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
So you think he's C+ instead of C
You bump him up half a grade and technically he could move from 18 to 4. Guess what I’m saying is I don’t think you and John are necessarily far off on him, though I don’t want to put words in his mouth.
by thejd44 on Dec 22, 2008 9:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
It's not a big deal
but Egbert has more value than at least five guys ahead of him IMO
by Daniel Berlyn on Dec 23, 2008 12:31 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
But the point is that Sickels clearly states he doesn't put a lot of stock into the rankings
at those grades. Sickels might actually agree with you! Sounds a lot more like he just lists the names as they come to mind instead of putting heavy thought into where they go since being the 13th or 15th or 18th best prospect doesn’t really matter if they’re all the same grade.
by thejd44 on Dec 23, 2008 10:05 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
which is why it isn't a big deal
but I do think Egbert should be C+.
by Daniel Berlyn on Dec 23, 2008 1:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Tough
I think Allen should be a B-. He’s seemingly made some big strides in the last couple years with his strike zone judgment.
2006 w/ Kannapolis: 5.1% BB, 29.5% K
2007 w/ Kannapolis : 7.0% BB, 22.1% K
2008 w/ Winston-Salem: 11.2% BB, 22.7% K
2008 w/ Birmingham: 11.0% BB, 23.7% K.
In the last 3 seasons, he’s more than doubled his walk rate while cutting down on the K’s by about 6%.
On an unrelated note, his isoP went up from 06 to 07 and 07 to 08.
by rdf8585 on Dec 22, 2008 3:29 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I sort of agree
but Allen does have major holes in his game. I do think Ryan Howard comparisons have some legitimacy to them. His K rates are concerning, but then, most power hitters do have that problem. I’m sure he’s not a stud in the field either. It should be noted that he is making steady improvements, like you noted.
by Daniel Berlyn on Dec 22, 2008 3:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Very Tough on Allen
Brandon Allen’s numbers:
R 87
2B 32
3B 6
HR 29
RBI 76
SB 17
BB 60
SO 124
AVG 0.278
OBP 0.367
SLG 0.555
OPS 0.922
These numbers are extremely similar to Chris Carter who received a straight B:
R 101
2B 32
3B 4
HR 39
RBI 104
SB 4
BB 77
SO 156
AVG 0.259
OBP 0.361
SLG 0.569
OPS 0.930
Comparing defensive with a simple calc
Brandon Allen Career Fielding Percentage at 1B: 0.987
Chris Carter Career Fielding Percentage at 1B: 0.976
Certainly Allen is a B- maybe even a B.
by gunkdog on Dec 22, 2008 5:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
this is probably a good comparison considering the two players played for the same teams at the same ages for a good part of their careers.
if i’m looking for a difference, i’d primarily point to their age 20 and 21 seasons. allen wasn’t that good and had to repeat the level the next year. carter raked and then raked again the next year at a higher level. carter has been better at higher levels and at a younger age.
"They will surely make fewer home runs," Guillen said. "Defense players and worthy pitchers will likely take over the protagonist's role."
by larry on Dec 22, 2008 5:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Allen
OK, I’m open to the idea that C+ is too low for Allen.
by John Sickels on Dec 22, 2008 5:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think your
initial grade of B- for Allen from the “where did this guy come from” series seems more accurate. I’d be inclined to give him a B, but I definitely see a B-.
larrys fortune cookie: you will learn much and have the advantage of not reading my pompous responses.
by bhoov on Dec 22, 2008 7:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Carter
… and as far as Carter, according to Ben Badler of BA, “The White Sox made a slight mechanical tweak, helping throw across his body less and stride more toward the plate and voila: throwing more strikes with a 90-93 mph FB and a very good curve that’s helped him get more than a K per inning.”
by rdf8585 on Dec 22, 2008 3:34 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Jose Martinez Power
I think the 7HR’s in RK ball were fairly impressive for an International signee and definitely shows the power potential. Last year was basically a lost year, which obviously isn’t a good thing, particularly for international types. However, he doesn’t turn 20 til July, so there’s plenty of time for him to catch up and fill out (listed at 6’5 170). If you look at his monthly splits from 08, he may have been figuring out the whole full-season thing before the season ending surgery:
April:
266/310/277 – 0 HR
May:
380/446/580 – 2 HR
He’s has sleeper written all over him going into 09.
ProspectTube.com
You Video. You Scout.
by ProspectTube.com on Dec 22, 2008 3:38 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Damn……I was hoping you would use Rusty Kuntz’s baseball card.
by fartballs on Dec 22, 2008 3:46 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
The only grade I can quibble with is that of Viciedo's
and John has the built in excuse that he’s never played a game of professional baseball in America.
The Sox seem to really believe that he’ll be competing for the 3B job this year. While I think that’s a stretch, even the most cautious reports have Viciedo as a considerable talent, and the quotes I’ve seen from non-Sox people seem to think he’ll make his debut at AA this year. That seems worthy of a grade higher…
AIM: SouthSideCheat
by The Cheat on Dec 22, 2008 4:01 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
especially when coupled with his cuban league performances.
"They will surely make fewer home runs," Guillen said. "Defense players and worthy pitchers will likely take over the protagonist's role."
by larry on Dec 22, 2008 4:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
agreed
I find it hard to believe that hes not in the top 5 alone with his upside, I don’t think the weight is going to be an issue, hes just big kid. I also find it kind of discerning that Inoa would get a b- and be ranked higher in a stronger A’s system without a pro debut but Viciedo would be ranked lower and at a c+ in a weaker sox system. Add into the fact TINSTAAPP.
by beautox on Dec 22, 2008 4:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
interesting points
all the way around
"If you hit .440 with 20 bombs, you don't have to do s---. You don't have to bring a glove to practice, just hit and leave whenever you want. You can bring a 40 and smoke a cigarette and call me from the parking lot asking me what time the game is, and I'll tell you. You can even say 'F--- you, Steve!' Actually, don't say that, that wouldn't be very nice." -Steve Friend, Head Coach, Chabot College Gladiators Baseball
by flipgatey3 on Dec 22, 2008 4:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Viciendo
OK, I will think about this one more, but lots of Cuban guys have turned out to be nothing who had great scouting reports.
by John Sickels on Dec 22, 2008 5:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
fair point as well, like adrian hernandez, etc.
but that could be said about a lot of prospects i guess in a blanket…i just like beautox’s comparison to inoa. yeah, my a’s thought so highly of him that they threw 4.5 on him, but in theory, tinstaapp.
"If you hit .440 with 20 bombs, you don't have to do s---. You don't have to bring a glove to practice, just hit and leave whenever you want. You can bring a 40 and smoke a cigarette and call me from the parking lot asking me what time the game is, and I'll tell you. You can even say 'F--- you, Steve!' Actually, don't say that, that wouldn't be very nice." -Steve Friend, Head Coach, Chabot College Gladiators Baseball
by flipgatey3 on Dec 22, 2008 5:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
were those other players putting up the numbers viciedo did in the cuban league (and at viciedo's young age)?
just trying to see the comparison.
if you believe that the cuban league is roughly A ball, the numbers viciedo had at his age are pretty good. obviously nothing is a perfect comparison.
"They will surely make fewer home runs," Guillen said. "Defense players and worthy pitchers will likely take over the protagonist's role."
by larry on Dec 22, 2008 6:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
is the NY/Penn league closer to rookie or A?
Sober, I was appalled at the women. Drunk I was told I danced with them all.
by colintj on Dec 22, 2008 6:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
it is A ball.
"They will surely make fewer home runs," Guillen said. "Defense players and worthy pitchers will likely take over the protagonist's role."
by larry on Dec 22, 2008 6:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Plus, I'd say there's about a 10% chance he actually plays 3B in the majors
He’s a lot less valuable as a 1B.
by thejd44 on Dec 22, 2008 6:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
i like percentages picked out of the air about 7% of the time.
"They will surely make fewer home runs," Guillen said. "Defense players and worthy pitchers will likely take over the protagonist's role."
by larry on Dec 22, 2008 6:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
It's not picked out of the air.
I’ve read scouts saying there’s no chance he sticks at third. The 10% comes from what I consider a pretty poor system at evaluating minor league talent (and having no doubt that they don’t use any advanced defensive metrics at any level).
by thejd44 on Dec 22, 2008 9:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
they're a major league organization
they have a better idea than you. Defensive metrics are worth jack-shit when it comes to Cubans, not that they’re worth anything when it comes to evaluating anything. If you’re trying to say they’re bad at evaluating minor talent, then who do you suggest we should give the credit for picking up guys like Quentin, Danks, Jenks, Thornton, etc.
KW sheds a silent tear at your disapproval. Maybe we should wait until he steps foot on a Spring Training field before making any well calculated conclusions.
by Daniel Berlyn on Dec 23, 2008 12:39 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
how many current or former sox hands are going to end up in the top 100
this year?
Sober, I was appalled at the women. Drunk I was told I danced with them all.
by colintj on Dec 23, 2008 2:09 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Trading away Aaron Cunningham for Danny Richar isn't a good thing.
by thejd44 on Dec 23, 2008 10:06 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
did he say it was?
or are you running on the common idea that the sox have no clue what they’re doing. original and deep. not every move works out, but KW has been killing it lately.
sit*
by U-God on Dec 23, 2008 5:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think Kenny Williams is a loose cannon and a mediocre general manager
He makes lots of bad moves, far more than the good moves. His blockbusters fail most of the time. He is best at under-the-radar moves like the Thornton deal. Even the Quentin deal wasn’t really under-the-radar, but he did a good job buying low there.
And, to specifically answer that: What colintj said implied was that the White Sox do a good job of identifying talent that they draft because of how many of them are now in the top 100 (but are playing in other systems). I don’t think you can give the Sox credit for “identifying talent” when they traded that talent for a guy who doesn’t belong in the majors. It’s not like all their prospects that are floating around other organizations were traded for major league superstars. Most of the time they’re in other organizations because the White Sox couldn’t properly judge their talent.
by thejd44 on Dec 27, 2008 2:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
well you should know
you follow the Sox pretty closely.
Sober, I was appalled at the women. Drunk I was told I danced with them all.
by colintj on Dec 28, 2008 11:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
just admit it. you picked it out of thin air. it's okay.
a lot of people talk out of their ass on here. at least 45% of the time.
"They will surely make fewer home runs," Guillen said. "Defense players and worthy pitchers will likely take over the protagonist's role."
by larry on Dec 23, 2008 9:52 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
So if I said you were a 100% douchebag based on two posts
Would that be picking it out of the air, or just a small sample size?
And would either of those actually make me wrong?
by thejd44 on Dec 23, 2008 10:06 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
at least you'd be basing it on first hand evidence.
"They will surely make fewer home runs," Guillen said. "Defense players and worthy pitchers will likely take over the protagonist's role."
by larry on Dec 23, 2008 10:09 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Sex Panther by Odeon
Brian Fantana “They’ve done studies, you know. 60% of the time it works, every time.”
I am going to ask you one time, and i'm gonna ask you nice. Where the fuck is Ringo bitch.
by ElDiablo on Dec 24, 2008 9:02 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Not that this will do much to refute your point...
But, Kenny Williams has said that Viciedo’s athletic enough to move to OF, and used another guy they moved from 3B to the corner OF, Carlos Lee, as a comparison.
His path might be 3B>LF>1B>DH, with him being essentially guaranteed to remain at 3B in ’09 no matter which level he finds himself.
AIM: SouthSideCheat
by The Cheat on Dec 22, 2008 6:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
no N in his last name, John
fwiw.
Sober, I was appalled at the women. Drunk I was told I danced with them all.
by colintj on Dec 22, 2008 6:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
How many got 10 mil?
Your points are valid and there’s no real way to grade him at this point, but I’d say he’s their third or fourth prospect, and far from tenth.
by Daniel Berlyn on Dec 22, 2008 7:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
juan pierre got $44 mil.
"They will surely make fewer home runs," Guillen said. "Defense players and worthy pitchers will likely take over the protagonist's role."
by larry on Dec 22, 2008 7:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
bababa
I’d like to think Ned Colletti has nothing to do with the decision
by Daniel Berlyn on Dec 22, 2008 7:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
judging a player by the amount of money they got is not really a good measure.
"They will surely make fewer home runs," Guillen said. "Defense players and worthy pitchers will likely take over the protagonist's role."
by larry on Dec 22, 2008 7:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
John, nice job overall...
except Viciedo (not Viciendo). The Sox probably know more about Cuban ballplayers than any team and the fact that they gave him more than twice the money that they just gave Alexei Ramirez should say a lot.
As well as the hundreds of scouts that came out to watch him and the great interest in him. I think Gordon Beckham will be an All-Star but I think Viciedo will be better.
And, I do understand that he hasn’t played in this country yet. Thanks for hard work, John!
by NLaloosh on Dec 23, 2008 10:30 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
ViciEDO
I have it right in the book. To change it here would require editing and reformatting the post, which is a pain in the ass.
by John Sickels on Dec 23, 2008 4:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
typs
Typos happen. I haven’t had a day off in 3 months.
by John Sickels on Dec 23, 2008 5:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
you should take thursday off.
just making sure – you did that one twice.
by larry on Dec 23, 2008 5:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Is there any hope
for Lance Broadway? He was a top 10 propsect in the Pale Hose system a few years ago and has fallen off the board.
by Robinson Checo on Dec 22, 2008 4:07 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
The top of a pile of crap is still crap
AIM: SouthSideCheat
by The Cheat on Dec 22, 2008 4:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Kyle McCullough
Shows how far he has fallen, when he can’t even make the list for the others.
Shows how bad some of Shaffer’s 1st rounders in him and Broadway were, going for the “safe / polished” pitcher.
Poreda obviously bucks the trend, and hopefully the Sox will continue that way down the line. I think they drafted better in 2008 than they have for a long time at least.
by DBAH0 on Dec 22, 2008 4:32 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Morel, Danks, Beckham, Hudson and Carter in '08
not too shabby.
Sober, I was appalled at the women. Drunk I was told I danced with them all.
by colintj on Dec 22, 2008 6:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I hope Aaron Poreda is starting.
He really, really needs to be.
"And you just don't get it, you keep it copacetic..."
by Blicks on Dec 22, 2008 5:10 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
who would have guessed the Sox achilles' heel would be
an actual achilles
Sober, I was appalled at the women. Drunk I was told I danced with them all.
by colintj on Dec 22, 2008 6:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
or lack thereof
in a perfect world, I’d like him to get another year of seasoning. I don’t see any point of rushing him, unless everyone else sucks(which is certainly possible). Then you have the possibility of Contreras rejoining somewhere down the line. I’d like to think that out of Richard, Marquez, and Egbert they can find two 95 ERA+ pitchers, but even Floyd isn’t a certainty yet.
by Daniel Berlyn on Dec 22, 2008 7:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Marquez and Egbert are the definition of replacement.
Richard…we’ll see. That said, I doubt Kenny will go with a rotation that he can’t get 900-1000 IP out of between the five of them. That’s been his MO for a while now.
Sober, I was appalled at the women. Drunk I was told I danced with them all.
by colintj on Dec 23, 2008 2:09 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
A lot of "replacement" guys turn out to be better than that.
They’re both ground ball specialists; to what degree we’ll find out, but the fact of the matter is that even if they’re replacement level for 160 innings they’re more valuable to the White Sox than most other teams. If they’re above replacement level, they’re extremely valuable. Egbert kept his K and GB rates strong except for May where he blew up. I don’t care much about Marquez other than for the fact that if he can utilize his skills he becomes a back-end starter; in other words, he’s an arm.
I also don’t want Poreda to have to bounce around between AAA and AL or starting and relieving… the others aren’t as important in that regard.
by Daniel Berlyn on Dec 23, 2008 1:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Kent Gerst
Speedster with “Ellsbury” like skills needs refinement BUT better than Williams & has upside more than some of the 15/20 guys
by frenchredsox on Dec 23, 2008 6:39 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
GRADE CHANGES
I am changing Brandon Allen to GRADE B-
I am changing Viciedo to GRADE B-
by John Sickels on Dec 23, 2008 5:57 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
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