Callis' AL top 10?
by jfish26101 on Dec 22, 2008 1:04 PM EST
50 comments
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/ask-ba/2008/267360.html
In case you are to lazy to click and read:
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Now that all of the American League Top 10 Prospect lists are in, could you provide us with an overall AL Top 10 list?
Sean McAndrews
London
Ask and ye shall receive:
1. David Price, lhp, Rays
What he showed us in the postseason was just the beginning.
2. Matt Wieters, c, Orioles
He could be Mark Teixeira—as a catcher.
3. Brett Anderson, lhp, Athletics
The best player Oakland got in the package for Dan Haren.
4. Trevor Cahill, rhp, Athletics
It will be fun to watch his friendly rivalry with Anderson.
5. Neftali Feliz, rhp, Rangers
Just one reason the Braves wish they could undo their Teixeira trade.
6. Tim Beckham, ss, Rays
Yet another multitalented star-in-the-making for Tampa Bay.
7. Eric Hosmer, 1b, Royals
He could be the best of all the special hitters K.C. has drafted recently.
8. Lars Anderson, 1b, Red Sox
Even if Boston signs Teixeira, it will find room for Anderson in 2010.
9. Travis Snider, of, Blue Jays
Of these 10 guys, he might make the biggest 2009 impact in the majors.
10. Mike Moustakas, 3b, Royals
In a few years, he and Hosmer could combine for 70 homers annually.
Should be interesting given the debate around Anderson. :D
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I posted it in the fanshots as well
I found it intriguing because he had Price ahead, and I think this was the 2nd time I’ve seen Price ahead of Wieters (MiLB). I was mildly intrigued with Lars placement, as I probably would take Snider ahead by a tiny bit as of now, but eh, that’s a quibble.
by toonsterwu on Dec 22, 2008 1:08 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
His comment
though, if Wieters is Tex behind the dish, i dont see how that doesnt make #1
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by jbluestone on Dec 22, 2008 9:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Beckham?
How the hell is Tim Beckham #6? Also, I would move Snider up that list.
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by King Billy Royal on Dec 22, 2008 1:12 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Beckham is a stud
with HUGE upside – I really think he was under-rated on the community list.
by slurve on Dec 22, 2008 1:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
What's not to like about Beckham?
You saw that was TIM Beckham, right?
Great defender(with some kinks to work out), super athlete, tons of upside, good power potential (stud power potential for a SS) – looks like a good bet to be 85% of BJ Upton.
Hell, he was the #1 overall pick for a reason – he’s really, really good.
by alskor on Dec 22, 2008 1:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
He definitely was the #1 pick for a reason.......signability!!!!!
If you took money out of the equation, then Alvarez should have went #1 in my opinion. He would have been a great fit at 1B for Tampa in a few years when Pena moves on. I am not saying that Beckham isn’t a great prospect; he is. However, there is no way that he should be ahead of Snider or Anderson at this point.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Dec 22, 2008 3:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Money has played no role in drafting in the first round for the Rays.
And it didn’t this year either. They’ve picked the number 1 player on their board every year since Stu took over.
Tools Whore
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by Tyler on Dec 22, 2008 3:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
+1
Callis is obviously really high on him, but I’d move Snider and Moustakas above him for sure.
by MightyMoose on Dec 22, 2008 2:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I dont get all the Snider love
Could be a great hitter… but a lesser hitter who is a great defensive SS will be a more valuable player.
by alskor on Dec 22, 2008 11:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Hm, a great defensive shortstop is worth about 25 runs or about 125 points of OPS more than an average LF
It’s well within the bounds of reason to see Snider as more than 125 OPS points better than Beckham… and, indeed, I’d guess most people would go along with that reasoning…
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by PaulThomas on Dec 23, 2008 12:34 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
25 runs = 125 points of OPS?
Ive never seen that before and it sure seems low. Is that from Tango? Wouldnt it not translate correctly anyway, since OPS treats the OBP and SLG components as equally valuable…?
by alskor on Dec 23, 2008 12:55 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I would bet you money that this is no where close to the first10 AL players
If you pull it from the BA Top 100
No way Hosmer and Beckham are in the top 20 or so prospects next year. This is just a bad throw together list by Callis. I am mildly disappointed in this. But then again, why give away the real list on the BA Top 100?
by laxtonto on Dec 22, 2008 1:13 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Probably not
Callis is the shining star – the lone voice of reason at BA
by alskor on Dec 22, 2008 1:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Wait
What makes you think Hosmer and Beckham wont be in the top 20??
Im pretty confident Beckham will. Last year Price was #10, Wieters #12 and Moustakas #18 among guys drafted that year. Very good chance that Beckham is in the 15-20 range.
What am I missing? What do people have against Beckham? He looks like a stud to me. Is there something I should know? Or is this just more Derek Holland style groupthink?
by alskor on Dec 22, 2008 1:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
College vs HS
Find a HS Player to debut in the BA Top 100 inside the top 15 in the last few years. Moustakas debuted at 18 his first year, J. Upton debut at 2, Maybin at 31, … Justin Upton is the only one I have found in the last 5 years inside the top 15. That is a high standard to meet. Then instead have 2 from the same draft guys fall in the 10 – 20 range? Not going to happen. College players, sure I could see that happening, but not HS.
People will discount HS players just because if the age factor. Do you see both of those guys being equal or better than Moustakas when he came out? That would be the best case scenario to get in the range needed to make the top 10 in the AL.
I would not be surprised to see Beckham and Hosmer behind Alvarez and maybe Posey and/or Smoak
by laxtonto on Dec 22, 2008 2:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Let's see...
which HS #1 pick HASN’T debuted in the top 15 the year after they were drafted?
Upton was #2 in ’06
Matt Bush—the worst #1 pick in recent memory, and thought so immediately after
Delmon was #3 in ’04
Mauer was #7 in ’02
Adrian Gonzalez was #89 in ’01 (?!?)
Hamilton was #13 in ’00
ARod was #6 in ’94
Brien Taylor was #1 in ’92
Chipper Jones was #49 in ’91 (double-?!?)
So, of the ten high schoolers that were selected #1 since Baseball America started making their prospect lists, 70% have been in the top 15 the following year (assuming that’s where Beckham lands). Of the three who werent, one was a laughingly awful #1 pick, and the other two went on to become superstars.
Honestly, that took me all of two minutes to look up. Maybe you should try it next time?
by DrunkIrish on Dec 22, 2008 2:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
And out of all of those how in the last 10 years have their been 2 guys in the top 20
0
Why was Vitters the #3 guy selected in 2007 not ranked until 43? He was drafted 3rd, Hosmer was drafted 3rd?
That is becasue if you look year by year the top HS picks normally don’t get the AB’s to make the grade on the top 30. It falls back to the “Shiny new toy” problem. Normally for the guy picked #1 overall he gets a pass, but for every HS after that not the case.
How do you expect Beckham to get the ranking when he was not even the consensus #1 last year. Most publications had at least Alvarez if not Alvarez and Poesy ahead of him.
Once again there is no way that both will fall in the top 17. I don’t know why this is even considered possible. If you think my research is spotty, go look at the last 10 years. Not a single draft has the top 2 HS picks in the to 30 much less top 17.
by laxtonto on Dec 22, 2008 3:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
"Shiny New Toy"
Look at the list above. Of the nine guys, five are superstars, and two (Delmon and Upton) are in the majors at a young age with every chance to be superstars themselves. The first HS player taken has a pretty damn good track record of success. I wouldn’t call ranking that guy highly an example of “shiny new toy” syndrome. and maybe three or four guys on that list were “consensus” #1 picks.
Vitters wasn’t ranked highly because he wasn’t good enough. Scouts love Hosmer. LOOOOVE Hosmer. He will be ranked quite highly, and there’s not really a controversy about it.
by DrunkIrish on Dec 22, 2008 4:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Remember
We’re talking about BA’s rankings, and BA had Beckham the #1 overall talent before the draft – ahead of Alvarez. Regardless of whether you agree with that ranking, you should NOT be surprised to see Beckham ranked that high by the same publication.
by guru4u on Dec 22, 2008 4:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
But once again neither of you guys answered the question
How can both be in the top 20 or so prospects in all of baseball? They can’t if you use BA’s last 10 years for a template. I have historical precedence on my side.
One should get in, but not both. I like Hosmer, but give me more than 11 AB’s outside of HS. I am kinda OK with Beckham in the top 20, but at least with him you have 180 AB’s to get to see him play everyday against other professionals.Maybe I was not clear, but once again, no way BOTH make it in the top 20 or so prospects.
by laxtonto on Dec 22, 2008 4:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That wasn't the question.
You started by saying, “Find a HS Player to debut in the BA Top 100 inside the top 15 in the last few years.” Once you were shown that that’s EXACTLY where you’ll find a high schooler that was drafted 1st overall, you started backpedaling.
I’m not going to take the time to look through past drafts and cross-reference them with the BA draft histories, because it’s not really worth it (it’s much easier to look at a list of #1 picks). If you’d like to, be my guest. The fact is that Hosmer was universally touted as the top HS bat in the draft. BA also thought he was the closest to the majors out of all HS draftees. Just because there may not be a lot of recent precedent for a second high schooler to have that kind of talent and likelihood of success doesn’t mean Callis is wrong for ranking Hosmer highly.
In fact, all I can find is Callis backing up his reasons for liking Hosmer. Forgive me if your arguments don’t seem as persuasive.
by DrunkIrish on Dec 22, 2008 5:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Just because it hasnt happened
before doesnt mean it wont happen now… I get your argument (kinda) but just because it has never happened before doesnt mean I will never happen.
by tmt85 on Dec 23, 2008 5:09 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
No they didn't
They had it: Alvarez, Matusz, Beckham.
by aCone419 on Dec 22, 2008 4:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Callis
had Beckham going first in his mock. That’s probably what guru is recalling.
by DrunkIrish on Dec 22, 2008 4:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Actually, yeah they did
This was their last draft tracker they published:
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/draft/draft-tracker/2008/266183.html
by guru4u on Dec 22, 2008 6:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Their prediction of who would go where is different from who they think is best
On 5/23, they said Alvarez, then a pitcher, then Beckham http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/draft/draft-preview/2008/266128.html
At another point, though, I think they said Beckham first (but I don’t remember)
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by OldProspects on Dec 22, 2008 11:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
jason donald for mazzaro or simmons
by Asfan4ever723 on Dec 22, 2008 1:26 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
my bad
supposed to be in the phillies thread
by Asfan4ever723 on Dec 22, 2008 1:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
For comparison in case people are too lazy
Top 10 AL Prospects from Community List
1. MATT WIETERS – C (Baltimore)
2. DAVID PRICE – SP (Tampa Bay)
4. TRAVIS SNIDER – OF (Toronto)
8. TREVOR CAHILL – SP (Oakland)
9. NEFTALI FELIZ – SP (Texas)
10. MATT LAPORTA – 1B/OF/DH (Cleveland)
11. MIKE MOUSTAKAS – 3B (Kansas City)
14. RICK PORCELLO – SP (Detroit)
16. BRETT ANDERSON – SP (Oakland)*
17. DEREK HOLLAND – SP (Texas)
The community had Lars Anderson as 12th (behind Tillman), Eric Hosmer as 16th (Smoak/Andrus/Matusz ahead), and Beckham 17th.
I don’t think this list is as bad as people are making it sound. I don’t think it’s going to be BA’s top 10 AL players either, but this was Callis’ list and different people grade things differently, for lack of a better word right now. Can enough questions be asked about LaPorta/Porcello/Holland/Tillman/Smoak/Andrus/Matusz? I think so (and I say this as someone who said that he was okay with Porcello as a top 8 prospect overall.)
by toonsterwu on Dec 22, 2008 1:26 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Illustrating this site's Derek Holland and 1B/DH prejudice!
by alskor on Dec 22, 2008 1:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
i like holland
but it sure seems like some folks are pegging him as a surefire ace, and well, there’s no such thing imo, but even if you buy that there are surefire ace prospects, i’m not sold that he’s anywhere close. then again, that might just be a few holland fans making me think that the whole community is feeling that way. he does have huge upside, and maybe moreso than every pitcher besides price, but there is a bit more traveling to do, imo.
by toonsterwu on Dec 22, 2008 1:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
to get myself into a bit of trouble perhaps
but i don’t see how Holland is 87 spots better than Cole Rohrbough. I’m not saying he isn’t better, but I don’t think Cole was that underrated on this the community list (to be honest, I still prefer, gut instinct, Jeff Locke to Cole Rohrbough). I just don’t see that significant of a difference between the two as of now.
by toonsterwu on Dec 22, 2008 2:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'd have
Lars Anderson, Hosmer, and Beckham all ahead of Holland and he wouldn’t be in my top 10. Though I would probably have Holland ahead of Brett Anderson, haha.
by MightyMoose on Dec 22, 2008 2:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
How is Snider #9?
"And you just don't get it, you keep it copacetic..."
by Blicks on Dec 22, 2008 1:27 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Good Question
The guy has had success in the majors at 20 years old, but he is two spots behind Eric Hosmer, who has had all of 11 professional ABs…. ridiculous
by Birdfan01 on Dec 22, 2008 2:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
It's not if you think Hosmer is going to be better.
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by Tyler on Dec 22, 2008 3:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
GREAT LIST
though I might have Smoak on there, and I might still flip flop Anderson and Cahill..
by alskor on Dec 22, 2008 1:28 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Yeah
Interesting that he has Hosmer over Smoak. I may have gone the other way.
by Robinson Checo on Dec 22, 2008 4:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Puzzlingly inconsistent with some of his prior pronouncements
for instance, the one in which he said he’d take Bumgarner and Alderson over the A’s pair… about the only way you can do that is if you have Bumgerner as the best prospect in the entire NL and Alderson near the top 5. Well, I don’t know, I suppose that’s possible if he’s incredibly high on Alderson, but it seems kinda silly to me.
Callis is a strange man.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Dec 22, 2008 2:30 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Callis
FYI, this morning on XM radio, he announced his overall top 5:
1. Price
2. Wieters
3. Pedro Alvarez
4. Bumgarner
5. Rasmus
Meanwhile, John Manuel’s top 5:
1. Price
2. Wieters
3. Heyward
4. Neftali Feliz
5. Tommy Hanson
Manuel also said he had Mike Stanton at #10. He had Stanton in his top 5, but decided to drop him a bit due to the massive K’s.
So, directly addressing your question Paul, Callis had Bumgarner as the #2 NL prospect.
by guru4u on Dec 22, 2008 2:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
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