Dewey's Hot 99 Prospects
by Dewey Finn
on Dec 22, 2008 3:18 PM EST
184 comments
Good afternoon ladies and gentlemen,
I would like to present my Top 99 Prospects List.
Enjoy!
1. Matt Wieters - Strong bet to assault AL pitchers
2. David Price - Will overtake Scott Kazmir as 'Ace' of the Rays
3. Travis Snider - Middle of the order run producer with good avg
4. Trevor Cahill - Smart kid has better stuff than Webb IMO.
5. Dexter Fowler -Breakout year showed .300, 20+ HR, 30+ SB potential
6. Justin Smoak - Switch-hitting power 1B with great defense
7. Derek Holland - Fits the Scott Kazmir/Jon Lester mold
8. Pedro Alvarez - Should've been drafted #1 overall in June
9. Michael Stanton - Big athletic kid with legitimate 40+ HR potential
10. Jesus Montero - Wont stick at catcher, but .300+ avg and 30+ HR is nice
11. Jason Heyward - I see a young Barry Bonds if development continues
12. Lars Anderson - Potential .300+ avg & 30+ HR 1B bat
13. Cameron Maybin - 5 tool stud just needs to cut down on Ks
14. Tim Alderson - I think he has realistic John Lackey upside
15. Freddie Freeman - Big 1B can hit for avg, power, and draw walks
16. Jarrod Parker - Excellent stuff, just needs consistency
17. Angel Villalona - Young and raw, but the potential is huge
18. Gordon Beckham - 25-30 HR Shortstop
19. Yonder Alonso - Excellent approach at the plate, high avg/good power
20. Jhoulys Chacin - Gets K's & GBs, perfect to be Rockies' Ace
21. Neftali Feliz - Overpowering fastball with improving off-speed stuff
22. Mike Moustakas - 30+ HR power with solid avg, move to OF likely
23. Matt LaPorta - I see Pat Burrell, which is a pretty darn good hitter
24. Madison Bumgarner - Made low A look way too easy
25. Michael Saunders - Very similar to Grady Sizemore
26. Tommy Hanson - He's making it hard not to like him, lots of Ks
27. Chris Tillman - Good fastball with hammer curve = plenty of strikeouts
28. Andrew McCutchen - Has the tools, needs better results
29. Daryl Jones - Cards fans should be more excited about him than Rasmus
30. Logan Morrison - Might be better than the 2006 version of Lyle Overbay
31. Ben Revere - Might become one of the best leadoff men in the AL
32. Brett Cecil - Good FB/SL combo will make him a solid #2 starter
33. Junichi Tazawa - Newly signed import has potentially 2-3 plus pitches
34. Carlos Santana - Catcher with an Incredible offensive season
35. Chris Perez - Ready to close now, potential Brad Lidge
36. Andrew Lambo - Good power, good avg, I liken him to JD Drew
37. Rick Porcello - Nice debut, Tigers should take the kid gloves off
38. Brett Wallace - Kid can flat out hit, can he play 3B though?
39. Brian Matusz - Excellent command of 4 above avg pitches
40. Brett Anderson - Knows how to get outs without plus stuff
41. Elvis Andrus - Should be an excellent leadoff hitter for the Rangers
42. Austin Jackson - Yankees long term CF, 15/15 with .280-.290+ avg
43. Colby Rasmus - 20/20 potential, but avg needs to be higher
44. Buster Posey - Solid hitting skills with good defense behind the plate
45. Phillpp Aumont - Has the stuff for a lot of ground outs and punchouts
46. Dellin Betances - Nasty FB/CB combo, needs to reduce the BBs
47. Matt Dominguez - Good pop/defense, reminds me of Ryan Zimmerman
48. Mat Gamel - Too bad there is no DH in the NL
49. Gregory Halman - I see a Mike Cameron type hitter
50. Michael Bowden - Has four quality pitches that he controls very well
51. Eric Hosmer - HS kid with big power potential, cant wait for debut
52. Michael Inoa - All hype at this point, but a teen that throws high 90s
53. Shooter Hunt - Improved command/control would make him Matt Cain
54. Beau Mills - Pronk's replacement as run producer for Indians
55. Wade Davis - Big guy should be a workhorse for the Rays
56. Jordan Walden - Would be higher on list if he'd maintain high 90s heat
57. Jordan Zimmerman - Not a true frontline starter, but will be for Nationals
58. Carlos Carrasco - Excellent changeup makes him very effective
59. Will Inman - Flyball tendencies wont hurt as much in Petco
60. Josh Vitters - Will hit for high avg, more power will make him an allstar
61. Dayan Viciedo - Intriguing kid could be a force with the bat
62. Jake Arrieta - Good stuff, needs to improve command for #3 upside
63. Zach McCallister - Stuff is getting better, keeps the ball on the ground
64. David Cooper - Good avg, good power, can take a walk
65. Adam Miller - Injuries slowed what looked like a bright future once
66. Tim Beckham - Similar to Edgar Renteria, good but not great player
67. Jonathon Niese - Lefty with good curve gets a lot of groundball outs
68. Tyler Flowers - Not sure about his future as C, but good power and OBP
69. Carlos Truinfel - Young kid holding his own, despite being rushed
70. Jeremy Hellickson - Excellent control, but gives up too many HRs
71. Jordan Schafer - Was really high on him before the scandal
72. Fernando Martinez - Needs to stay healthy and produce to warrant hype
73. Taylor Teagarden - Good power and defense, needs to improve avg
74. Wes Hodges - A potential .280+ avg and 20 HR bat
75. Jeff Samardzija - Love his FB, is he better suited for the bullpen?
76. Todd Frazier - Solid performance despite tough hitters league (FSL)
77. Jose Tabata - He'll hit for a great avg, but is there power potential?
78. Desmond Jennings - Was injured, but still has 5 tools potential
79. Neftali Soto - Its early, but showing signs of ability for avg & power
80. Kyle Blanks - Big dude proving he can hit consistently
81. Wilmer Flores - Very impressive debut
82. Aaron Hicks - Small sample size, but displayed 5 tool potential
83. JP Arencibia - I like the power, but not the lack of walks
84. Daniel Cortes - Good fastball and curve, but the flyball rates scare me
85. Chris Marrero - Lost season due to injury, dont forget about him and his pop
86. Danny Duffy - Strikeout machine, but alot of flyballs
87. Kila Ka'aihue - Hits HRs and takes BBs
88. Scott Elbert - Healthy, has #2-3 potential if Dodgers return him to starting
89. Michael Main - I should probably give this kid more respect.
90. Julio Teheran - Loosely compared to King Felix, too early IMO
91. Hank Conger - Switch-hitting catcher showed nice power
92. Daniel Bard - Hard thrower has the potential to be a lights out reliever
93. Cedric Hunter - David DeJesus clone? Not a bad ball player
94. Jairo Heredia - Under the radar kid should be watched in '09
95. Dae-Eun Rhee - Nasty splitter makes him hard to hit
96. Martin Perez - Solid #s for such a young kid (17 years old)
97. James McDonald - Impressed as a reliever, long-term role?
98. Michael Burgess - Young kid has serious power, needs to cut down Ks
99. Chris Carter (Oak) -Massive power, but low avg and high Ks
100. ???
Who should be the #100 prospect on my list?
6 recs |
184 comments
Email
Print
Comments
Oops!
Major oversight by me.
I would’ve had him in the high 70s or low 80s.
Now raise your goblet of rock. It's a toast to those who rock!
by Dewey Finn on
Dec 22, 2008 11:05 PM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Does that mean?
That I win?! Is it a cash prize? :-)
by thudean on
Dec 23, 2008 10:04 AM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
+1
He was ranked #8 by MLB.com and while I think that was generous I believe he’s a legit top-50 talent. Not making a top-100 list is kinda silly.
Giants: World Series Champions...in 2011.
by Giants_Junkie on
Dec 24, 2008 11:15 AM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
#100: Julio Borbon.
" He throws it where he wants it, his breaking ball kept getting better and better and of course God gave him that special arm. He's great." ~ Neftali Feliz on Derek Holland.
by Kinslerhomer on
Dec 22, 2008 3:26 PM EST
reply
actions
0 recs
It's your list, but
how Holland or Stanton are top 10 guys, but Maybin, Feliz are not is beyond me. Freeman at 15 and MadBum at 24!?
KLaw called Stanton a 4A type. I’ll give Holland props for his great year, but I think most scouts/BA/BP guys see Feliz as the more promising starter.
I also think Porcello at 37 is one you might regret by next year.
While i have a lot of issues with this list, i’s good to see/hear others opinions.
by MightyMoose on
Dec 22, 2008 3:26 PM EST
reply
actions
0 recs
slurve's Dewey impersonation
Those two are are future HOF’ers based on my exclusive scouting reports than no one else has ever (or will ever) see. Maybin and Feliz just don’t do it for me and BA has been wrong before – so I must be right.
by slurve on
Dec 22, 2008 4:39 PM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
LOL
I’m Dewey Finn, NOT Paul Thomas!
Now raise your goblet of rock. It's a toast to those who rock!
by Dewey Finn on
Dec 22, 2008 11:31 PM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Bite me.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
Dec 23, 2008 12:36 AM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
you wouldn't be confused with PT
Paul Thomas actually backs his arguments up with stats or logic… something you seem allergic to.
Some of the most violent things I’ve ever seen were at Raiders games. And I’ve been to jail. - leopold bloom
by designatedforassignment on
Dec 23, 2008 2:23 AM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
achoo achoo achoo
I base my rankings on an assessment of GRIT.
Real stats give me hives.
by METSMETSMETS on
Dec 25, 2008 10:14 AM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
It's all good Dewey
just had to give you some shit…
by slurve on
Dec 23, 2008 2:01 PM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
No worries dude
All in good fun.
Paul Thomas’ hissy fits are hilarious. I could just picture him smashing his keyboard, LOL.
Now raise your goblet of rock. It's a toast to those who rock!
by Dewey Finn on
Dec 23, 2008 3:37 PM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Ok
Feliz only has a slightly better fastball than Holland, Holland gets the edge in secondary offerings.
I think Freeman has more skills as a hitter than Bumgarner does as a pitcher (fastball and…).
Keith Law called Stanton a 4A type? Doesn’t surprise me, Law says alot of dumb things.
As for Porcello, I fully expect him to rank higher next year, but for now, he doesn’t deserve it.
Anyways, I dont expect you to agree with what I have to say. Just voicing my opinions.
Merry Christmas.
Now raise your goblet of rock. It's a toast to those who rock!
by Dewey Finn on
Dec 22, 2008 11:25 PM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
merry Christmas Dewey
In response,
like it or not Law does have more inside info than you or I. I’m not saying he will be a 4A player, but he played in a hitter’s park/league and the k’s are a concern. for every Ryan Howard there are 10 other guys that strikeout too much and don’t materialize. however, if he turns into a Jack Cust type with high k’s but makes up for it in power than i’m sure the Marlins would be pretty happy. he’ll be challenged next year in the FSL. i just think its very pre-mature to have him that high. I think mid-20’s for now is about right.
I have a bit of a man-crush on Porcello. kid was lights out and I think the K’s will come.
also props for you with Revere. I really think he is going to be a speed freak. good to see he is getting some respect.
by MightyMoose on
Dec 23, 2008 2:39 PM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Stanton
His Ks do worry me too. However, I think he has the ability to hit for a respectable avg, unlike guys like Chris Carter. Furhermore, he’s very athletic and plays good defense.
Now raise your goblet of rock. It's a toast to those who rock!
by Dewey Finn on
Dec 23, 2008 3:40 PM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
thats just silly
carter hit 291 in 07 and had a flukey low BABIP of .296 last year. If you regress that to the .330 that he had in 07 his batting average would be right around 290 again. Carter will hit for plenty average.
Some of the most violent things I’ve ever seen were at Raiders games. And I’ve been to jail. - leopold bloom
by designatedforassignment on
Dec 24, 2008 3:32 AM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
???
.300 is average unless i’m seriously mistaken.
Founder of the Johnny Giavotella fan club.
by doublestix on
Dec 24, 2008 3:56 AM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
maybe in the majors
but Carter had the fourth lowest BABIP of qualified players in the Cal league. The median was .332 so thats why I regressed it to that number which is also about the same as carter’s last year BABIP.
Some of the most violent things I’ve ever seen were at Raiders games. And I’ve been to jail. - leopold bloom
by designatedforassignment on
Dec 24, 2008 12:29 PM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
+1 on Revere
Sickels, Goldstein and Callis have all been quoted as saying that Revere isn’t some slap hitter. He hits hard line drives all over the field and has unbelievable bat control. Personally I could see him becoming a hitter similar to Kenny Lofton.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on
Dec 23, 2008 3:58 PM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
keith law
is a tool. . . i thought that for a long time. . . then i met him . . . now i think he’s even a bigger tool
by SoCalSoxFan on
Dec 23, 2008 2:47 AM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
He definitely sees the world differently
Now raise your goblet of rock. It's a toast to those who rock!
by Dewey Finn on
Dec 23, 2008 4:10 PM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
+1
i’m still waiting for the mitchell boggs domination, don’t go out on a limb with something that bad, if you do, you are just not that smart
by IHateMitchMustain on
Dec 24, 2008 11:03 PM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Thoughts
Guys to move up:
1. Porcello – I see #1 starter potential in this kid
2. Eric Hosmer – His power potential is enormous
3. Tim Beckham – Should he be top 10? No. Top 30? Yes
4. Desmond Jennings – If healthy he will crack top 20 next year. Potential replacement for Crawford.
Guys to move down:
1. Derek Holland – Great pitching prospect but a tad over ranked.
2. Zach McCallister – I see middle reliever in his future
3. Tyler Flowers – If he moves off catcher his bat starts to look average at 1B.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on
Dec 22, 2008 3:35 PM EST
reply
actions
0 recs
Overall
Great job on the list so far Dewey. While not everyone will agree with you, it should generate some good discussion.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on
Dec 22, 2008 3:36 PM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
If by “good discussion” you meant a massive flame war.
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all.
by baetown415 on
Dec 23, 2008 2:54 AM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Up and down
I would move Buster Posey WAY up. He has better-than-decent upside and was considered about as much a sure thing as anyone in the 2008 draft. It appears he will get on base a LOT for a catcher and may have better power potential than many think. He has a closer’s arm and had the athleticism to play shortstop.
I would move Angel Villalona WAY down. Excellent power potential, but very little plate discipline. I see him as Adam Dunn without the walks. That might not be even average for a first baseman. If Angel is able to return to third base (I understand he still takes ground balls there daily.), that would increase his value.
I would also move Tim Alderson down. Very fine poise and a real breaker, but he rarely breaks 92 mph and doesn’t yet have enough confidence in his change up to throw it much. I think Tim will be successful. I just think #14 is a bit high at this point.
I don’t know of any Giants fans who rate Alderson above Madison Bumgarner. As long as Bumgarner remains healthy, he’ll likely have easily the better career of the two. Yes, Mad Bum pitched a level below Timmy Two last season, but he dominated that level — and he’s nine months younger than Alderson.
At the age Tim was pitching well enough in the California League last season that he should have been the Pitcher of the Year instead of fellow Giant Kevin Pucetas, Mad Bum will likely be pitching that well — or at least close to it — in AA this upcoming season. Both are likely to be pitching together at Connecticut, and I suspect that the younger Bumgarner will do at least as well as Alderson.’
If that isn’t the case, it will likely mean either than Bumgarner is injured or that Alderson has refined the change up, in which case Timmy Two would be pretty close to major-league ready. I don’t think it is unrealistic for BOTH pitchers to be up sometime in 2010, although Alderson would appear to be slightly the better bet to do so.
But if both remain healthy, I think by 2012, Mad Bum will enjoy a clear edge, perhaps a very large one. I see Mad Bum as the Giants’ #2 starter of the future, with Alderson being #4 or #5. Alderson’s upside seems closer to Matt Cain’s, while Mad Bum’s could possibly approach that of Tim Lincecum.
Still, put those four in a rotation with Jonathan Sanchez, and the fans might even be willing to part with Barry Zito! :)
by sharksrog on
Dec 25, 2008 4:38 PM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
This is certainly your list
And I mean that in the best of ways
TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems
by OldProspects on
Dec 22, 2008 3:36 PM EST
reply
actions
0 recs
Out of curiosity
Why so high on Lambo?
Vogt early, Vogt often.
by Brickhaus on
Dec 22, 2008 4:12 PM EST
reply
actions
0 recs
because he's apparently JD Drew's clone
Even though he’s not that good.
by boonitez on
Dec 22, 2008 10:27 PM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
IMO
I see a lot of similarities between Lambo and Drew.
Will Lambo be as good as Drew? I think he’ll be close, making him a fine talent.
Now raise your goblet of rock. It's a toast to those who rock!
by Dewey Finn on
Dec 22, 2008 11:07 PM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
the guy barely posted an .800 OPS in A ball
how is he anything like JD Drew?
by boonitez on
Dec 23, 2008 12:21 AM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Dont cherry pick numbers
Now raise your goblet of rock. It's a toast to those who rock!
by Dewey Finn on
Dec 23, 2008 12:29 AM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
K fine
If using OPS is cherry picking, lets look deeper than that. His line this year was .288/.346/.462 with 110 K’s and 41 BB’s. His K% was 23.3. That’s a lot. He’s displayed some HR power, but that’s pretty much it. Nothing else he’s done so far sticks out, besides his strikeouts, which is a bad thing. Now what about his numbers screams JD Drew?
by boonitez on
Dec 23, 2008 12:53 AM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
I don't think you know what cherry picking is
That was his line in his full season debut.
by aCone419 on
Dec 23, 2008 9:30 AM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
I noted this in your "B" grade thread too
Lambo doesn’t profile anywhere near Drew as a defensive player. Drew has been an above average-to-great LF/RF/CF his entire career. Lambo is viewed as a liability in LF (average arm, poor range now which will decrease as he ages). I think Lambo would have to outhit Drew by a vast margin in order to be considered close to Drew’s value as an overall player.
by jibs on
Dec 23, 2008 11:23 AM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Comparable offensively
Now raise your goblet of rock. It's a toast to those who rock!
by Dewey Finn on
Dec 23, 2008 4:13 PM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
I do
When it presents itself.
Now raise your goblet of rock. It's a toast to those who rock!
by Dewey Finn on
Dec 23, 2008 11:49 PM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
okay...
Since you can’t use stats, give me one scouting report that compares his abilities to that of Drew and you will have made a believer out of me.
by boonitez on
Dec 24, 2008 12:40 AM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
"Since you can’t use stats, give me one scouting report that compares his abilities to that of Drew and you will have made a believer out of me."
Do you know who you’re talking to? It won’t happen.
Never, Never, NEVER give up
by hero66 on
Dec 25, 2008 11:31 PM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Niese over Martinez?
Interesting take, but even if you don’t care much for him, I don’t see how F-Mart is 30 places below guys like Elvis Andrus and Austin Jackson. F-Mart has a very similar career batting line as Jackson (F-Mart: .280 / .337 / .427, A-Jax: .284 / .355 / .410), they had very similar seasons in AA (F-Mart: .287 / .340 / .432, A-Jax: .285 / .354 / .419), they play the same position (If the Mets had Johnny Damon instead of Carlos Beltran, you’d almost certainly see F-Mart projected as the future CF), and Martinez is nearly two years younger. Yes, I see that F-Mart’s plate discipline is lagging a bit behind, but with his BB/K still around 2.7-2.8, he’s not quite in the range of major red flag, especially considering age and level (although its certainly worth keeping an eye on). But he’s also flashed plenty of power for a guy who hasn’t seen a stateside AB since before he turned 20 in October. He’s hit his 22 HR in 929 pro ABs, while Jackson has hit his 26 in 1696 ABs, and Jackson did it at much more age appropriate levels.
I can definitely see Andrus being higher than Martinez, and maybe even Jackson, but it should be a lot closer. I like what Andrus has shown so far, and he’s in a similar situation to Martinez at a more important position. But with Jackson, it just seems like they make about the same amount of contact (Similar averages, and check out the K% for 2008, F-Mart: 19, A-Jax: 19.4), and while Jackson gives you a handful of extra walks (BB% F-Mart: 7, A-Jax: 9.5), Martinez is already making harder contact (LD% F-Mart: 19, A-Jax: 13). Maybe you give a slight defensive plus to Jackson, but he’s not Carlos Beltran either, and were he in the Mets system might look like a future 4th outfielder. The tipping point might be health, but that’s the only way I can see making a case that Jackson belongs higher than F-Mart, and I don’t think it justifies 30 spots on a Top 100.
by Meddler on
Dec 22, 2008 4:22 PM EST
reply
actions
0 recs
+1
I can’t think of any reason for Niese to be over Fernando. Or Flores for that matter.
by supermets on
Dec 22, 2008 5:40 PM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Yeah
It seems like Fernando gets penalized more than he should for not quite living up to the enormous hype. The A-Jax comp is telling. They’ve accomplished almost exactly the same thing, except Martinez is 1.75 years younger and has consistently played against competition that was older and more advanced. Yet Jackson’s the future answer to the Yankees CF prayers, while Martinez still “has to produce”. Personally, I’ll take the younger guy who got all the hype from the scouts to begin with any day.
by Meddler on
Dec 22, 2008 10:43 PM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Also
I also think he gets burned because he’s behind one of the best all around CFs in the game on the depth chart. Its assumed he’s going to wind up in a corner, but he hasn’t yet, and no ones really calling him a poor defender, just not a superb one like Beltran.
by Meddler on
Dec 22, 2008 10:50 PM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Niese vs Fmart
IMO, Niese has the potential upside to be a #3 starter. Solid fastball, excellent curve, groundballs.
Personally, I’ve always felt Fmart was overrated. He’s young, bla bla bla. Put up or shut up.
Now raise your goblet of rock. It's a toast to those who rock!
by Dewey Finn on
Dec 22, 2008 11:10 PM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
But A-Jax isn't young
And he’s done the exact same thing
by Meddler on
Dec 22, 2008 11:12 PM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Personally
I believe more in Ajax’s potential than Fmart’s. Fmart is just too inconsistent to be relied upon.
Now raise your goblet of rock. It's a toast to those who rock!
by Dewey Finn on
Dec 22, 2008 11:37 PM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Um...
How so? Did you look at the stats side by side? They’re nearly identical. F-Mart has a touch more power, A-Jax has drawn a few more walks. BA and K% are nearly identical. They put up almost identical lines at the same level in 2008, except F-Mart was two years younger, and has been among the youngest players at his level his entire pro career.
by Meddler on
Dec 22, 2008 11:44 PM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Age
Has been a crutch for Fmart for too long.
Now raise your goblet of rock. It's a toast to those who rock!
by Dewey Finn on
Dec 22, 2008 11:49 PM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Austin Jackson has been hyped since he was 13
so it isn’t like fmart has had more time to prove he is a bust, jackson was a big time amatuer and has never lived up to his hype, it isn’t like he just hasn’t had a chance to prove it yet
by IHateMitchMustain on
Dec 23, 2008 12:23 AM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Player comparison:
Take a look if my first post was too long for you to read:
F-Mart has a very similar career batting line as Jackson (F-Mart: .280 / .337 / .427, A-Jax: .284 / .355 / .410), they had very similar seasons in AA (F-Mart: .287 / .340 / .432, A-Jax: .285 / .354 / .419), they play the same position (If the Mets had Johnny Damon instead of Carlos Beltran, you’d almost certainly see F-Mart projected as the future CF), and Martinez is nearly two years younger.
they make about the same amount of contact (Similar averages, and check out the K% for 2008, F-Mart: 19, A-Jax: 19.4), and while Jackson gives you a handful of extra walks (BB% F-Mart: 7, A-Jax: 9.5), Martinez is already making harder contact (LD% F-Mart: 19, A-Jax: 13). Maybe you give a slight defensive plus to Jackson, but he’s not Carlos Beltran either, and were he in the Mets system might look like a future 4th outfielder.
by Meddler on
Dec 22, 2008 11:47 PM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Ajax
IMO is a future gold glove CF with good avg/pop/speed.
His all round game is more developed than Fmart.
Now raise your goblet of rock. It's a toast to those who rock!
by Dewey Finn on
Dec 22, 2008 11:51 PM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
What parts of those are more development
Than F-Mart? He also runs well, he already has more power, his contact numbers are identical (.287 BA 19 K% for F-Mart .285 BA 19.4 K% for A-Jax). Even if you throw age out the window, they’re still really close, and you certainly don’t take points away from F-Mart for being young for his level.
by Meddler on
Dec 22, 2008 11:55 PM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Future gold glove for A-Jax
I haven’t heard that anywhere. I’ve heard he’s a solid CF glove, probably better than F-Mart, and certainly better than Johnny Damon, but really? How do you project that? Do you have a quote from an expert suggesting it?
by Meddler on
Dec 22, 2008 11:57 PM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
And again
I’m not saying F-Mart is necessarily better than Jackson, but he at least belongs in the same discussion, not 30 places lower.
by Meddler on
Dec 23, 2008 12:04 AM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
30 places lower
Because that gap is filled with guys that I feel are better talents than Fmart.
IMO, they belong in the same discussion more so than Fmart.
Now raise your goblet of rock. It's a toast to those who rock!
by Dewey Finn on
Dec 23, 2008 12:12 AM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Are you
going offer any evidence to support your position? It seems like the numbers I provided are pretty compelling. I get that its your opinion, that much is clear, but you haven’t offered anything tangible to support it other than “IMO”.
by Meddler on
Dec 23, 2008 12:20 AM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Numbers aren't everything.
Afterall, Hanley didn’t exactly light the world on fire in the minors.
Look at him now. By the way, its his birthday today.
Now raise your goblet of rock. It's a toast to those who rock!
by Dewey Finn on
Dec 23, 2008 4:14 PM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
While that's true
Doesn’t that mean that the guy who gets the scouting hype should get the edge? Hanley didn’t tear it up, but he got the same kind of mega-hype at a very young age that F-Mart did. He had some minor league struggles, but busted out in A+ and AA as a 20 year old. That comp seems to enhance the case for F-Mart if anything.
Is it Hanleys Bday? So it is. Happy B-day Hanley (see, Mets fans pay attention to you too ;))!
by Meddler on
Dec 23, 2008 5:03 PM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
And in repy to
Thanks man!
Good to know I haven’t offended at least one person, lol.
Its a fine list, I’m not offended that you don’t like the guy I like as much. I apologize if I came off as gruff, but I do appreciate your opinion and your willingness to share it. I just get a little hyper-analytical sometimes, and I get locked into that mode of thinking. I’m really just curious as to what your basing your opinion on.
by Meddler on
Dec 23, 2008 5:06 PM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
FMart
The injuries are a big, big concern for me. His season high on games played thus far in his professional career is 81. 81. The kid just cannot stay on the field. So, if he is continuously fighting off injuries while he is still a teenager, lanky and athletic, what will happen when he starts adding muscle and losing flexibility?
I know the JD Drew comp was thrown out for Lambo, but I like it more for FMart – in that neither one will ever stay healthy enough to put up a full season of stats.
by guru4u on
Dec 24, 2008 10:29 AM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
I think the opposite may be true
Once he fills out he may actually be less susceptible to injury – flexibility is a good thing, but strength and conditioning are what is going to prevent injuries. Same idea as to why pitchers don’t get hurt as often once they are out of the injury nexus. He can maintain flexibility by stretching, but right now his body is still growing and he hasn’t learned how to command his increasing physical attributes.
by slurve on
Dec 24, 2008 11:24 AM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
JD Drew
Interesting comp, I think its pretty solid, but its hard to really gauge how big a problem the injuries will be. The only serious one was the broken bone in his hand (something else that probably held back his #s for a while, hand injuries can take a while to regain strength from) and that doesn’t seem to be an issue anymore. The most recent injury was his hamstring, but he didn’t rush back from it and it doesn’t appear to be a concern at all anymore.
This is probably a question best asked of a guy like Will Carrol, but I wonder if there’s any trend of guys playing above their age level being more injury prone. I could definitely see a player struggling and lacking confidence being more likely to overadjust and try to do things he’s not capable of, maybe worrying so much about what he’s doing at the plate that he takes a bad step on the bases or in the field, or takes an ugly half-swing and pulls a muscle in his rib cage.
Anyway, its definitely an issue, his legs will be worth keeping a close eye on next year, but he appears to be 100% right now. Its possible injuries will always be a problem for him, but he’s so young its hard to automatically tag him that way.
Also, for what its worth, the Mets are known for having one of the best training staffs in the game. Its hard to tell on paper, but thats more of a function of all the age and fragility they’ve had on their roster.
by Meddler on
Dec 24, 2008 8:51 PM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Thanks man!
Good to know I haven’t offended at least one person, lol.
Now raise your goblet of rock. It's a toast to those who rock!
by Dewey Finn on
Dec 23, 2008 4:31 PM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
in my personal opinion
Villalona over Neftali Feliz is a JOKE
by stogies on
Dec 22, 2008 5:19 PM EST
reply
actions
0 recs
Well
I think Villalona has the potential to be an offensive force.
I like Feliz, and did not try to insult him with my ranking.
Now raise your goblet of rock. It's a toast to those who rock!
by Dewey Finn on
Dec 22, 2008 11:13 PM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
He does
but he hasn’t done too much to back that up at this point. Until he has a 20+ homer season where he doesn’t strike out 1,000,000,000 times, it’s not really fair to rank him over someone who has already put up great numbers. Feliz is one of the best pitching prospects in baseball; Villalona isn’t one of the best hitting prospects at this point. I believe he will be, but it’s not fair to say that until he has a break out year.
by boonitez on
Dec 23, 2008 12:20 AM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
I guess
It depends on ultimately what you think Feliz will become. If you think he has #1 written all over him, then having him ranked ahead of Villalona would make sense from your perspective.
IMO, Feliz should be a good/great #2. Villalona will be a .300 hitter with 40+ homers (eventually).
Now raise your goblet of rock. It's a toast to those who rock!
by Dewey Finn on
Dec 23, 2008 4:33 PM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Rasmus
Has two terrible months in Triple A, and the rats are already bailing.
by CoolCat23 on
Dec 22, 2008 5:27 PM EST
reply
actions
0 recs
Sorry
Unlike you, I can’t ignore his suckiness. I’m trying to be objective.
Now raise your goblet of rock. It's a toast to those who rock!
by Dewey Finn on
Dec 22, 2008 11:14 PM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Most people still rank him high
I applaud you for going so low with him though I think he is a little higher than 43. I would think more around 25-30. The kid is still really young though and I think he will put that terrible slump behind him and do great next year, even though his average was pretty terrible.
by wizardofozzie on
Dec 23, 2008 3:23 PM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
All together now:
“There are more important skills than batting average.”
by azruavatar on
Dec 24, 2008 9:20 AM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Here's the thing...
Even Adam Dunn hit for a MUCH higher average than Rasmus has in the minors. Rasmus’ inability to get base-hits is a concearn.
by casejud on
Dec 26, 2008 3:59 AM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
half the players on this list are way off
Just to name a few:
Dae Eun Rhee-would not make my top 300. #95???
Derek Holland-There is just no way that he’s better than Heyward
Michael Inoa-simply too high
Tim Alderson-MadBum should be higher
These lists take time, I know that, but this list seems to have more flaws than others.
PS: why on earth does this site overrate Holland so much?
by Matt Rox on
Dec 22, 2008 5:44 PM EST
reply
actions
0 recs
Holland
Because he throws hard and is left handed. People tend to overrate those types of pitchers. Hyperbole tends to run rampant on prospect sites anyway.
by CoolCat23 on
Dec 22, 2008 5:56 PM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
This site has a pretty good track record with prospects that it collectively overrates
Vogt early, Vogt often.
by Brickhaus on
Dec 22, 2008 6:28 PM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Derek Holland...
Throws hard (mid-high 90s)
Left-handed pitcher
Good secondary stuff (getting even better)
Excellent performance (dominant)
Racks up strikeouts
Ya, not sure why people would like him so much.
Now raise your goblet of rock. It's a toast to those who rock!
by Dewey Finn on
Dec 22, 2008 11:41 PM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Sounds like Brett Anderson to me.
Except he doesnt throw as hard, obviously.
Never, Never, NEVER give up
by hero66 on
Dec 25, 2008 11:34 PM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Inoa
I bet Inoa is higher than 50 in BA’s top 100 list.
by DeJay on
Dec 22, 2008 6:35 PM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
+1
Now raise your goblet of rock. It's a toast to those who rock!
by Dewey Finn on
Dec 22, 2008 11:38 PM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Hi
Rhee would not make your top 300 because you don’t know enough about him. Kid has good stuff.
Holland is more proven than Heyward at this point. LOVE both though.
Inoa has gotten a lot of hype, but it’s hard to ignore all the scouting reports gushing over him.
Alderson > Bumgarner due to more pitches and better command.
Now raise your goblet of rock. It's a toast to those who rock!
by Dewey Finn on
Dec 22, 2008 11:48 PM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Rhee wouldn't make anyone else's top 300
because he’s only pitched 40 innings in A ball.
Heyward is pretty much the best hitting prospect in the game that’s not named Weiters. That seems to be pretty much a concensus around here. How is Holland that much more proven if he’s only pitched 20 innings in the level above Heyward (AA)?
I personally think Inoa shouldn’t be rated at all until he pitches a game in the minors, but I do see why he’s being hyped so much.
Alderson is not better than Bumgarner. He doesn’t have more pitches; his secondary stuff is just more developed. That doesn’t make him better; it just means he’s further along in the developmental track. And show me a single stat that shows Alderson has better command. If you’d ever actually looked at their season stats you’d know that’s not true.
by boonitez on
Dec 23, 2008 12:12 AM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Rhee
I believe Rhee had TJ surgery this year. Did that factor into your ranking?
The Dodgers won't win a playoff series until the Cool-a-Coo returns.
by mckeeno on
Dec 23, 2008 8:54 AM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Right
Rhee has 40 innings in low A ball, a fairly high walk rate in that small sample size, and we have no idea how he’s going to return from TJ surgery yet. Top 100 seems too aggressive to me too.
Just as rankings comparison, John has him at #9 in an extremely weak/thin Cubs system, which would probably put Rhee outside of John’s top 300 as well.
by jibs on
Dec 23, 2008 11:32 AM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Oh
I didn’t have info about TJ surgery. With that in mind, he would be removed from top 100.
Will look into this.
Now raise your goblet of rock. It's a toast to those who rock!
by Dewey Finn on
Dec 23, 2008 4:26 PM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Porcello
I never like to criticize people’s list because it is there oppinion, I would justl ike to know why you rank Porcello below people like Cecil and Perez? If the Tigers offered Porcello for Cecil I think the Blue Jays would do it instantly.
by FishHead on
Dec 22, 2008 6:25 PM EST
reply
actions
0 recs
cecil for porcello?
Not a hope in hell from the jays perspective…mostly for “other” reasons though. I personally think Cecil is a bit underappreciated due to the patient approach the Jays have had with him.
by ayjackson on
Dec 22, 2008 9:34 PM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Well
As of right now, I think Cecil and Perez have better stuff and are further along in their development.
Now raise your goblet of rock. It's a toast to those who rock!
by Dewey Finn on
Dec 22, 2008 11:19 PM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Inoa
I would like to know when he was ever clocked throwing in the mid 90’s.
by CoolCat23 on
Dec 22, 2008 6:59 PM EST
reply
actions
0 recs
From Scout.com (subscription required)
Built like an NBA small forward, Inoa stands at 6’7’’. He comes from a family of athletes and, according to Patterson, he already repeats his delivery with ease. Inoa reportedly can touch 94 miles per hour with his fastball. He also has a 78 mile per hour curveball, an 81 mile per hour slider and a 79 mile per hour change-up, according to the A’s internal reports."
http://athletics.scout.com/2/819773.html
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on
Dec 22, 2008 8:32 PM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
From BA (subscription required)
Several scouts have called Inoa one of the best 16-year-old pitchers they’ve ever seen. He already has a lively low-90s fastball that has touched 94 mph, and with his size and mechanics he projects to throw even harder. He has remarkable athleticism and coordination for his size, allowing him to repeat an effortless delivery and have good command. He has the potential for a plus curveball and also throws a changeup that already grades as fringe average.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on
Dec 22, 2008 8:35 PM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
"That has touched 94 mph"
Touching 94 =/= Throwing mid 90s
by Southwest on
Dec 23, 2008 2:17 AM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
I was responding to "I would like to know when he was ever clocked throwing in the mid 90’s."
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on
Dec 23, 2008 2:36 AM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
+1
“Throwing mid 90s” implies a repeated action, not an isolated event. Lots of prospects have hit 94 or higher, and then never displayed that velocity again.
by aCone419 on
Dec 23, 2008 9:35 AM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
You're answering a question different from the one asked.
What point are you trying to make? If your point is that pitching prospects are risky, then I think everyone already knows that.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on
Dec 23, 2008 9:49 AM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
You got served
Now raise your goblet of rock. It's a toast to those who rock!
by Dewey Finn on
Dec 22, 2008 11:42 PM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Well sort of. It seems Inoa throws in the low 90s and can get it up to 94, but it doesn't sound like
he’s “a teen that throws high 90s”. Do you have a source on that?
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on
Dec 23, 2008 9:53 AM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
I'll try to find it...
The report I remember reading was Inoa hitting 97 mph, sitting at 94-95.
Now raise your goblet of rock. It's a toast to those who rock!
by Dewey Finn on
Dec 23, 2008 4:22 PM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Dewey Finn
You are going to ride this Dexter Fowler mancrush thing until it throws you off and runs you over aren’t you. Live in the last 15 minutes much?
by CoolCat23 on
Dec 22, 2008 7:08 PM EST
reply
actions
0 recs
Well
Fowler is putting it all together and his performance showed it this season.
IMO, he is just tapping into his vast potential.
Now raise your goblet of rock. It's a toast to those who rock!
by Dewey Finn on
Dec 22, 2008 11:29 PM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
+1
I agree with you here. Dexter Fowler is a pretty awesome CF prospect, and is probably better than Maybin and McCutch.
by demondeaconsbaseball on
Dec 24, 2008 9:24 PM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Chris Carter - 100% in Agreement
Well, the list certainly on the whole is different. But one ranking I’m glad you did (which is where I ranked him, or so), is Chris Carter. Thankfully someone else realizing how terrible a player he may be and how many holes he has in his game.
by thudean on
Dec 22, 2008 7:29 PM EST
reply
actions
0 recs
you look at his description of him though
and it describes adam dunn. not many teams would be upset with that out of a minor league first baseman, oakland especially.
sit*
by U-God on
Dec 22, 2008 8:46 PM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Dunn
Is a crazy outlier of how players with such tools turn out. Carter also needs to have a great eye and take walks to have anywhere near the value of dunn.
by thudean on
Dec 22, 2008 8:48 PM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
+1
Now raise your goblet of rock. It's a toast to those who rock!
by Dewey Finn on
Dec 22, 2008 11:27 PM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Also
Dunn hit for high average in the minors and has much greater plate discipline then Carter. Carter draws walks, strikes out, and hits power at a clip alarmingly similar to Rob Deer. Unfortunately he doesn’t have the same strong arm from RF.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on
Dec 22, 2008 11:35 PM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
I think people give Carter too much flack
for his low average this season. If I remember correctly, he hit for a pretty high average in his previous seasons, but his BABIP fell this past season. I still think he’s a .275-type hitter.
Never, Never, NEVER give up
by hero66 on
Dec 25, 2008 11:38 PM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Is there really that big a difference between Lars Anderson and Kyle Blanks?
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on
Dec 22, 2008 8:36 PM EST
reply
actions
0 recs
Significant difference IMO
Anderson has a more advanced approach at the plate with superior hitting skills.
He has the potential to be a special all-star calibre hitter, I don’t see this in Blanks.
Now raise your goblet of rock. It's a toast to those who rock!
by Dewey Finn on
Dec 22, 2008 11:16 PM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Is either something more than a prospective .380/.480 guy?
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on
Dec 23, 2008 2:37 AM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Let's see, one's a Red Sox prospect, right?
That guy’s automatically better then.
by DrunkIrish on
Dec 23, 2008 4:15 PM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
uh oh!
Please don’t instigate.
Now raise your goblet of rock. It's a toast to those who rock!
by Dewey Finn on
Dec 23, 2008 4:35 PM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Hey
are you planning to submit this to the community synthesis top 100? I’m not seeing your name in my inbox ;)
by siddfynch on
Dec 22, 2008 10:34 PM EST
reply
actions
0 recs
Sorry dude
What’s your email?
Now raise your goblet of rock. It's a toast to those who rock!
by Dewey Finn on
Dec 22, 2008 11:15 PM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Ivan DeJesus
Just wondering. I’m assuming its because of the seeming lack of upside, however
by Navi's_Navy on
Dec 23, 2008 12:03 AM EST
reply
actions
0 recs
Bingo
Now raise your goblet of rock. It's a toast to those who rock!
by Dewey Finn on
Dec 23, 2008 12:12 AM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
But that does leave just Beckham, Andrus and Beckham as middle IF
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on
Dec 23, 2008 2:39 AM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Ya...
Not very deep IMO. Guys like Antonelli and Brignac disappointed me. Cardenas is just overrated.
Now raise your goblet of rock. It's a toast to those who rock!
by Dewey Finn on
Dec 23, 2008 4:20 PM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Reports of Brignac's Much-Improved Defense
don’t help the cause?
by Navi's_Navy on
Dec 23, 2008 6:18 PM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Nah
Not at the expense of offense.
Now raise your goblet of rock. It's a toast to those who rock!
by Dewey Finn on
Dec 23, 2008 8:37 PM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Is
he that bad offensively, sure this season was a down year, but I think at a premium position with plus defense he could put up 15/15 numbers (even though the discipline is ugh..)
by Navi's_Navy on
Dec 24, 2008 4:43 PM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Derek Holland – Fits the Scott Kazmir/Jon Lester mold
What does this mean? What kind of mold is this? Those are two very, very different pitchers. That’s like saying someone fits the Tim Wakefield/Andy Pettitte mold.
by alskor on
Dec 23, 2008 1:00 AM EST
reply
actions
0 recs
Power lefties who strike a lot of guys out?
Vogt early, Vogt often.
by Brickhaus on
Dec 23, 2008 1:21 AM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
They don't have many similarities outside of that vague category though
Looking at 2008, Kazmir threw an overwhelming amount of fastballs, occasionally mixing in a slider or change. Lester used a very even distribution of fastballs, sliders, curves, and splitters. Kazmir has a much higher K rate, but walks more guys and is a flyball picther, whereas Lester is overall more efficient by limiting walks and getting guys to hit the ball on the ground half of the time (pitch to contact).
Lester averages 6 1/3 innings per start, whereas Kazmir averages 5 2/3 (that might not seem like much of a difference, but over the course of the season that’s a lot more innings that you’re relying on middle relief arms to get outs if you’re putting a Kazmir-type guy on the hill instead of a Lester-type guy).
by jibs on
Dec 23, 2008 11:48 AM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Kazmir
Had to cut back on the sliders this year due to the injury (elbow) during spring training.
Now raise your goblet of rock. It's a toast to those who rock!
by Dewey Finn on
Dec 23, 2008 3:27 PM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Alcides Escobar
Am I mistaken or did a top 10 prospect according to minorleagebaseball.com get left out of the top 99 of Dewey?
by ILuvDaBush on
Dec 23, 2008 3:12 AM EST
reply
actions
0 recs
Dewey apparently prefers 1B who don't make a contribution other than hitting to MI who don't make
a contribution other than fielding
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on
Dec 23, 2008 3:55 AM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
True
I don’t care for defensive specialists.
Now raise your goblet of rock. It's a toast to those who rock!
by Dewey Finn on
Dec 23, 2008 3:26 PM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
With all due respect
That milb list was so ludicrous, that doesn’t mean very much. Escobar might make a top-100, but he really shouldn’t be higher than 80 or so
TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems
by OldProspects on
Dec 23, 2008 11:39 AM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Escobar's value
He’s got a lot of question marks still with the bat, but he’s ready to provide elite SS defense at the MLB level today. I think combining his current defense with the offensive potential he flashed in 2008 makes him definitely a top 40 guy in my eyes.
by jibs on
Dec 23, 2008 11:54 AM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Even an excellent defensive SS
who is a marginal hitter is not a significantly above average major leaguer. He has value, yes, but not top-40 worth
TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems
by OldProspects on
Dec 24, 2008 2:20 AM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
I guess it depends what you mean by "marginal hitter"
The average SS in 2008 had a .255 EqA. A SS with a .255 EqA and excellent defense is an easily above average player.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on
Dec 24, 2008 7:51 AM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Frankly, I think a .255 EqA might be ambitious for him
In years where his BABIP isn’t .380. He’s a good player, and I’d like to have him on my team, and I can see putting him in the top 100, and maybe even top 50, but I don’t think it’s mandatory to have him there
TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems
by OldProspects on
Dec 24, 2008 11:51 AM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Fair enough. I was just trying to clarify what you meant by "marginal".
I still think this list, and the Community List have too many 1B/DH and P and not enough MI.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on
Dec 24, 2008 8:39 PM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Disagree highly
… that the list was ludicrous. Especially since the most “ludicrous” aspect was the specific ranking in question.
by aCone419 on
Dec 23, 2008 2:44 PM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Frankly, I think the Escobar pick was significantly better
than Scott Elbert at 37. Escobar will probably be an average major league starting SS and maybe an above average one. Elbert doesn’t look like much more than a good middle reliever. I’m not giving up on Nick Adenhart, but putting him at #35 is just a little too optimistic for my tastes. And I know some Yankee fans will be appalled, but I think Austin Jackson, who with the exception of a few months in Tampa has shown utterly average power and an acceptable eye, at #27 is incomprehensible as well – these are good prospects who may be good major leaguers, but are simply not in the same class as a number of other prospects.
As a rule, I think that you’re right that most of the list was perfectly fine – a number of their picks, including Esocbar’s, were so bizarre that ignoring them is probably wise.
TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems
by OldProspects on
Dec 24, 2008 2:27 AM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Where is...
Gio Gonzalez at? I think he needs to just put it all together and can be a Zito type for Oakland maybe
"Hello. My name is Matthew Berry. I am on a Fantasy Jihad. Prepare to be die!"
by Dominatio on
Dec 23, 2008 7:18 AM EST
reply
actions
0 recs
Interesting comparison
Not sure Gio’s curve was as good as Zito’s, and dont think Gio has a good enough fastball.
Are we talking A’s Zito or Giants Zito? haha.
Now raise your goblet of rock. It's a toast to those who rock!
by Dewey Finn on
Dec 23, 2008 3:25 PM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
maybe i mean to say oliver perez but a little more consistent?
"Hello. My name is Matthew Berry. I am on a Fantasy Jihad. Prepare to die!"
by Dominatio on
Dec 24, 2008 6:41 AM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Bad Comp
Perez’s fastball is a much better pitch, with much greater velocity.
The Dodgers won't win a playoff series until the Cool-a-Coo returns.
by mckeeno on
Dec 24, 2008 10:09 AM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
i guess sometimes when i compare i do it based on results rather than the stuff, i see gio’s stats being maybe somewhere like zitos as his upside or somewhere like perez’s as his likely side
"Hello. My name is Matthew Berry. I am on a Fantasy Jihad. Prepare to die!"
by Dominatio on
Dec 24, 2008 10:28 PM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
More awful content from Dewey Finn!
How are the only three currently rec’d posts by this guy? By the looks of the comments, I’m not the only one who got a laugh out of these lists.
As much as I like Rhee (and I do like him), he should not be touching a top 100 list. Period.
by RedSoxFaithful on
Dec 23, 2008 10:26 AM EST
reply
actions
0 recs
Aw...
I like cheering people up during the holidays.
Merry Christmas!
Now raise your goblet of rock. It's a toast to those who rock!
by Dewey Finn on
Dec 23, 2008 4:39 PM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
It's odd
But it’s not bad. If anything, Dewey forces us to avoid some groupthink by being a bit of an oddball with his lists.
And I don’t see you coming up with any content whatsoever. If you think you can do better, we’d be happy to read it.
by demondeaconsbaseball on
Dec 24, 2008 9:26 PM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Ahem
http://www.minorleagueball.com/2008/11/10/656766/101-prospects-the-list
And, yeah, I took some shots for some of my rankings, but I at least had reasoning to back myself up that wasn’t based on falsities and hunches. And, hell, when something was based on a hunch, I came out and said that, instead of insisting that my lack of research, disguised by incorrect statements, was the truth.
So yeah, I understand that there’s no right way to rank these guys, and it’s all opinion. But it would be nice if Dewey would actually put research and logic into his rankings, too. I’ll admit, it does upset me when I see something like this, because I put days of effort into my list, and I know others have, too. By the looks of the comments Dewey made on players, and some of the B.S. reasoning he gave in his comments here, he put maybe minutes of work into it, if that.
by RedSoxFaithful on
Dec 27, 2008 2:44 AM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Yeah, I'm a dumbass
We disagree in the effort Dewey took to do this though. He’s actively defending himself in the threads, and while his defenses may be poor in points, he’s at least explaining his reasoning. I think it’s unfair to accuse him of only taking minutes to do this when he’s been defending his prospect rankings in like 400 comments over 3 diaries.
by demondeaconsbaseball on
Dec 27, 2008 3:13 PM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Bryan Anderson for #100
Threw out 38% across AA & AAA as a 21-year-old, and seems certain to hit for average in the majors (.306 career mark while always one or two years young for his leagues). His error/passed ball numbers are in line with all other top backstop prospects—save Matt Wieters—so he looks to be a solid defender.
At worst, Anderson looks to be a .290/.360/.390 MLB catcher with average glovework, which would make him a top 10-12 guy in the majors. That’s his floor.
If he adds just a little pop, several years of .310/.380/.440 is well within reach, and that’s a top 5-6 guy.
Thought experiment: would you rather have a catcher who (in 500 ABs) hits .280, with 30 homers, 30 doubles, and 30 walks…or one who hits .310 with 10 HRs, 25 doubles, and 55 walks? The first guy (Arencibia type) looks sexier, but the second (Anderson type) is offensively identical overall, due to his OBP advantage.
by Mekonsrock on
Dec 23, 2008 10:32 AM EST
reply
actions
0 recs
Solid arguments
I respect that.
Now raise your goblet of rock. It's a toast to those who rock!
by Dewey Finn on
Dec 23, 2008 4:38 PM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
He's not listed...
Not a big fan of his.
Now raise your goblet of rock. It's a toast to those who rock!
by Dewey Finn on
Dec 23, 2008 3:24 PM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Please elaborate on this
His defensive deficiencies are obvious but is there another reason?
by hiafex on
Dec 24, 2008 4:49 AM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
And again, Brett Anderson #40?
facepalm.jpg
by Zonis on
Dec 23, 2008 6:07 PM EST
reply
actions
0 recs
I like how he still wrote "knows how to get outs without plus stuff"
even though there was a whole fanpost dedicated to putting scouting reports right in front of his face that said he’s got very good stuff.
by NateHST on
Dec 23, 2008 6:56 PM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Good does NOT mean PLUS
FYI
Now raise your goblet of rock. It's a toast to those who rock!
by Dewey Finn on
Dec 23, 2008 8:37 PM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
I'm aware of that, but let's not nitpick
You ignored all of the scouting reports that said he does have plus stuff. Have you seen the kid pitch or is this just a gut feeling?
by NateHST on
Dec 23, 2008 8:47 PM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Per BA's 2009 Scouting Report...
Only the change up ranks at plus, and they even qualify that as “usually” plus. They ranked his breaking stuff as above-average. They also list his fastball at a lower velocity then A’s fans seem willing to accept. I don’t think there is anything wrong with claiming Anderson doesn’t have plus stuff. I might even agree with it.
by nixa37 on
Dec 23, 2008 11:16 PM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
I think that you forgot Aaron Poreda about 30 or 40 picks ago.
by NLaloosh on
Dec 23, 2008 11:08 PM EST
reply
actions
0 recs
Nope
I am aware of him and at this point, he only looks like a situational lefty reliever.
Now raise your goblet of rock. It's a toast to those who rock!
by Dewey Finn on
Dec 23, 2008 11:42 PM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
I'm still curious as to what you could possibly be basing this on.
Situational lefty reliever?
by Craig Grebeck on
Dec 24, 2008 5:16 PM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Salome
I understand how you can be low on him, but why him below Arencibia who can run and crawl but never walk, and how much lower is he in your respect?
by Navi's_Navy on
Dec 24, 2008 12:47 AM EST
reply
actions
0 recs
Going by this list/comments
The Futures Game will have more talent than the MLB All Star game. LOL
by Philsfan in Carolina on
Dec 24, 2008 4:45 PM EST
reply
actions
0 recs
Disagree two places
Well, two major places. Rasmus at #43 is a bit absurd- at worst, that makes him Curtis Granderson, and I think he could be better. Sure, he needs a little more polish, but the kid is going to play CF in the majors, and in all likelihood a very good one.I also disagree with Porcello at #37… this is much more subjective, I just think he’s being underrated (slightly) by a lot of people because his K rate wasn’t extraordinary. I have a feeling that he’ll be great once he gets to use his curve.
As far as your 100th prospect, I’d say Max Ramriez. For some reason, I have faith he’ll stick at C or has a big enough bat for DH or 1B at worst. He seems to have made some pretty big strides this year, and that work ethic (which he showed by working so hard on his D) is a great attribute.
by demondeaconsbaseball on
Dec 24, 2008 9:32 PM EST
reply
actions
0 recs
Rasmus vs. Lambo
I really like Lambo as a prospect in the grand scheme of things, but his high ranking and the absurd JD Drew comp keep drawing me back in. The fact that Lambo is ranked ahead of Rasmus is pretty hilarious when you really look at all of the data. Lambo’s MWL stats are not nearly as good as Rasmus’ MWL stats when they were at the same “yearly age”, and Rasmus already has a 274/.380/.550 AA season already under his belt (Lambo’s 38 plate appearance AA stint really means nothing). Plus, Rasmus is a vastly better athlete and defensive player than Lambo. Dewey, I think you’re trying too hard to make a point with both of these guys.
by jibs on
Dec 24, 2008 11:12 PM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Brett Anderson?
how do you call a 21 year old Lefty who sits in the low 90’s with his fastball and this past season was clocked touching 95mph, and who has excellent control and plus secondary offerings a guy who “Knows how to get outs without plus stuff”???? Last I checked, a 91-93mph fastball was considered above average for a lefty. Senior Sickels graded him as an A- prospect. #40 on your list seems more than a tad conservative. How many minor league lefties ot there would rank higher than this kid? 2, maybe 3 at most?
by oakballnack on
Dec 25, 2008 1:09 PM EST
reply
actions
0 recs
Name recognition
Brett Anderson is the most vanilla-named prospect in baseball… if his name was Skeeter Griffith he’d be a top 10 prospect.
I've got a McPheever, and only JoJo Reyes can help me!
by Buzz Bissinger on
Dec 26, 2008 12:35 PM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
A. Escobar, A. Poreda W. Ramos should probably be on this list somewhere,,,,
But in Dewey’s defense I like that Villalona is up so high……I thought I read somewhere he has Albert Pujols potential and credentials? or was i dreaming……..
(higher than Neftali Feliz? -probably not, but still)
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on
Dec 27, 2008 2:33 AM EST
reply
actions
0 recs
You probably weren't dreaming
You probably weren’t dreaming — but the writer may have been. AnVil may have the power potential of Albert Pujols, but his plate discipline in nowhere near Albert’s. Nor is his defense.
I thought John was right with his B rating for Villalona, and if I were going to change it, the direction would be slightly more likely to be down than up. Angel’s K/BB ratio last season was more abominable than any snowman I’ve seen.
Yes, he more than held his own in Low A ball while being only 17 for most of the season. But Madison Bumgarner is almost exactly a year older, and Mad Bum dominated the Sally League as perhaps no pitcher in recent memory.
Although he can hit the ball well to right-center, I worry that AnVil will have difficulty with the outside pitch, particularly when it is down, unless he alters his open stance. Buster Posey has an open stance, but he steps strongly into the pitch. AnVil doesn’t seem to do so.
by sharksrog on
Dec 28, 2008 4:27 AM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
New FanPost
Certain photos copyright © 2009 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
