Sully's top 100 Prospect List
by sully10x on Dec 19, 2008 11:32 PM EST
20 comments
1. Matt Wieters
2. David Price
3. Jason Heyward
4. Madison Bumgarner
5. Neftali Feliz
6. Cameron Maybin
7. Colby Rasmus
8. Travis Snider
9. Trevor Cahill
10. Dexter Fowler
11. Rick Porcello
12. Brett Anderson
13. Andrew McCutchen
14. Mike Moustakas
15. Tim Alderson
16. Pedro Alvarez
17. Justin Smoak
18. Jhoulys Chacin
19. Chris Tillman
20. Michael Stanton
21. Buster Posey
22. Jesus Montero
23. Thomas Hanson
24. Derek Holland
25. Eric Hosmer
26. Matt Laporta
27. Jarrod Parker
28. Carlos Santana
29. Brian Matusz
30. Lars Anderson
31. Jordan Schafer
32. Tim Beckham
33. Logan Morrison
34. Brett Wallace
35. Fernando Martinez
36. Freddie Freeman
37. Elvis Andrus
38. Gordon Beckham
39. Yonder Alonso
40. Alcides Escobar
41. Wilmer Flores
42. Josh Vitters
43. Brett Cecil
44. Jordan Walden
45. Jordan Zimmerman
46. Max Ramirez
47. Wade Davis
48. Austin Jackson
49. Tyler Flowers
50. Matt Dominguez
51. Mat Gamel
52. Michael Main
53. Aaron Cunningham
54. Aaron Hicks
55. Kyle Skipworth
56. Angel Villalona
57. Carlos Carrasco
58. Taylor Teagarden
59. Matthew Moore
60. Adrian Cardenas
61. Neftali Soto
62. Ben Revere
63. Carlos Triunfel
64. Michael Bowden
65. Michael Saunders
66. Michael Inoa
67. Jeremy Hellickson
68. Gio Gonzalez
69. Jeff Samardzija
70. Desmond Jennings
71. Jeremy Jeffress
72. Gorkys Hernandez
73. Jake Arrieta
74. Jose Tabata
75. Daryl Jones
76. James McDonald
77. Aaron Poreda
78. Kyle Blanks
79. Danny Duffy
80. Greg Halman
81. Jonathan Niese
82. Ivan De Jesus
83. Chris Carter
84. Ethan Martin
85. Angel Salome
86. Nick Barnese
87. Engel Beltre
88. J.P. Arencibia
89. Julio Borbon
90. Jake McGee
91. Kila Ka'aihue
92. Brett Lawrie
93. Reid Brignac
94. Phillipe Aumont
95. Michael Burgess
96. Jason Donald
97. Daniel Cortes
98. Cole Rohrbough
99. Nicholas Weglarz
100. Chris Marrero
Honorable Mention (No order): Beau Mills, Martin Perez, Chris Perez, Julio Teheran, Tim Melville, Andrew Lambo, Dominic Brown, Jefry Marte, Michael Taylor, Mike Montgomery
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I like it
I particularily like your aggressive placement of 2008 drafties. i tend to agree with you. It will either be one of the best college draft classes for elite hitters or, the most overated, at least by some of us! I think the former. I also like the aggressive opinion on soe of the young guys…looks like you have seen them a bit…Soto, Flores, Main, Villalona, etc…and liked what you saw.
As a criticm I’d say that the very top of your list isn’t as opinionated, different, what have you as the bottom 3/4 of your list. don’t be afraid to disagree! For instance, i think Mike Stanton is going to end up better than almost every player on the list. I guess i can place him there on MY list :-)
I like it though. I’d like to hear your actual opinion on the players aso though…exactly WHY guys were ranked where they are.
by casejud on Dec 20, 2008 1:50 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Explanations
I rank players based on what I expect/feel them to become in the majors. Position and defense is extremely important, as well as pure hitting ability. I don’t necessarily look at ceiling, yet their most likely outcome. For me, being closer to the majors only has a slight effect on their ranking. A prospect list in my views is an estimation of their value long term, not who’s going to make an impact soonest. This is my reasoning for having elite 2008 draftees as well as aggressive approach on elite hitting international youngsters. Although I think you are mistaken with Villalona, since I have him lower than many and after seeing him at the all-star futures game, am questioning the type of player he will become although his power is still legit.
It’s pretty hard for the top of a good list to be different from the top of another good list. The elite minor league talent should stand out. In the top 25, I think I am more aggressive than most with some players such as Madison Bumgarner, Neftali Feliz, Dexter Fowler, Justin Smoak, Jhoulys Chacin, Mike Stanton, Jesus Montero and Eric Hosmer.
Hope this explains some things, and feel free to ask anymore questions
ProjectProspect.com - Sullivan10x@yahoo.com
by sully10x on Dec 20, 2008 12:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
General Statement.. Note:Not just to Sully
Whats the point of these lists? As casejud said, the top 1/3 is pretty vanilla in most of them. Is there really a difference (not mathematical) between being ranked 10 and 15,10 and 20, or even 10 and 30?
There are 30 teams, with about 6 minor league affiliates per organization, with around 20 players per team, so that’s an estimated 3,600 minor league players. Anyone on this list is in the top 3% of all minor league players. Does it matter whether or not Max Ramirez is a better prospect than Jordan Zimmerman? Or does it really matter how Max Ramirez compares to other catching prospects? Does it even matter at all? Shouldn’t we focus on what strengths these players have an the likely hood the are productive major league players. I know these lists are fashionable, I just don’t know what they prove? The only part that I look to read, as casejud said, is the final fourth because I see names I haven’t always heard (but that is a stretch).
I understand the “Community List” generates a lot of discussion and I think it is a great exercise (and source of Information more importantly). I just don’t see the value in the “General List”. I don’t get information or knowledge of any kind.
Someone please explain the obsession with theses lists!
P.S. I will be out of the State (NY) for the next four days at a conference in D.C., so flame me up as much as you want. I will not be able to respond until Tuesday night the earliest.
Remember: baseball guys... baseball...
by Metty5 on Dec 20, 2008 9:23 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
It's winter and there's no baseball
All of us need to keep busy somehow
by jibs on Dec 20, 2008 11:06 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Are you crazy?
There is no way that Max Ramirez should rank higher than Jordan Zimmerman. Outrage!
by siddfynch on Dec 20, 2008 12:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Wilmer Flores
I’m surprised to see him that high.
by Fanon on Dec 20, 2008 10:04 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Flores vs. Villalona last year
Angel Villalona was pretty much a consensus top 50 prospect coming into this year.
And if we want to compare Flores and Villalona, pretty much every advantage goes to Flores.
In 2007, Villalona put up the following line in the AZL as a 3B who likely would end up a 1B:
.285/.344/.450 with 5 HR, 6.7 BB, 18.8 K, .340 BABIP, 13 LD%
Villalona’s body type was very poor when I saw him at the All Star Future’s game. He doesn’t appear to have above-average athleticism.
In 2008, Flores put up the following line in the Appalachian league (more advanced than the AZL) as a SS who will likely end up a 3B:
.310/.351/.490 with 8 HR, 4.5 BB, 10.6 K, .325 BABIP, 16 LD%
He appears pretty athletic, and played all of his games at shortstop.
The power and contact department appear to severly favor Flores. Considering Villalona’s horrendous discipline in 2008, that’s just an additional red-flag.
ProjectProspect.com - Sullivan10x@yahoo.com
by sully10x on Dec 20, 2008 12:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
KG in his latest Mets article
seemed to imply that Flores would also end up at 1B/DH/LF, not 3B.
by alskor on Dec 20, 2008 12:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That's probably more because
There is a guy named David Wright that will be holding down 3B for the Mets for a long time.
With Flores athleticism and arm, he is likely a natural SS. I could see him manning RF as well, which is definitely not too bad on the positional spectrum. I don’t think he will need to be a 1B in the majors.
ProjectProspect.com - Sullivan10x@yahoo.com
by sully10x on Dec 20, 2008 12:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Nope
The Bad: Flores’ bat is tremendous, but it’s also his only plus tool. He’s a shortstop in name only, and has nowhere near the speed or range to play the position as a professional. He’ll be moved to third base initially, but with his thick build likely to limit his mobility as he matures, many think he’ll end up at first base or in left field.
by alskor on Dec 20, 2008 2:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
By "is likely a natural SS"
I meant “is likely a natural 3B” Tell Aramis Ramirez, Troy Glaus, Ty Wiggington, Scott Rolen, Wes Helms and many others that a thick build won’t allow you to play 3B.
I seriously doubt he wouldn’t have the athleticism to play 3B in the majors.
Once again, the reason he won’t play 3B in the majors is Mr. Wright.
ProjectProspect.com - Sullivan10x@yahoo.com
by sully10x on Dec 20, 2008 2:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Inoa vs Teheran
My question is regarding Michael Inoa and Julio Teheran and why I see Inoa on these list and not Teheran. Are they that dissimilar? Did Teheran moderate success knock him off everyone’s top 100 lists. Teheran had Felix Hernandez comps when he signed and he has pitched some pro ball yet Inoa seems to be getting more recognition now. Is it tiny new toy syndrome or what?
by JFP on Dec 20, 2008 11:08 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
To be fair
while Julio was highly thought of when signing, he wasn’t as highly thought of as Inoa.
by groundingout on Dec 20, 2008 12:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Like the previous comment
Inoa was the most expensive and sought after international free-agent of all time. Considering the low-budget A’s were the one to land him cause me to believe he is some kind of talent. From everything I read, a guy his size with that stuff and command doesn’t come around very often. I felt he deserves a top 60 ranking due to all of this.
Teheran did/does not have nearly the hype of an Inoa. But yes, he has a chance to become a special pitcher as well. At this point, due to possible injury cautions and erratic, but underrated performance (many people don’t look past his 6.60 ERA in 15.0 innings last year, but his peripherals were great — 6.1 BB, 25.8 K, 59 GB%) I think Teheran can soar up to the top 25 easily next year if he posts the type of season we expect. I just cant justifiably place him higher than 90 at this point, and he seemed to slip in just after the top 100 on this list.
ProjectProspect.com - Sullivan10x@yahoo.com
by sully10x on Dec 20, 2008 12:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Arrieta is too low on the list
Also Hosmer and Andrus are too low.
by Orioles77 on Dec 20, 2008 5:22 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Aumont and Brignac
Are the ones that seem the most off in my mind. I have Aumont as bordeline top 50 A sinkerballer who consistently stays in the low 90s, tall projectable body, a slightly above average curveball and a change-up which admittedly is a work-in-progress. 11th Overall pick last year, and while injury issues surfaced this year (I’m going to assume this is why he is so low) I personally believe he should be higher and is better than some of the 2008 draftees you have listed (Kyle Skipworth and Brett Lawrie, I’m looking at you).
Also, Brignac. As a Rays fan I would like to know what is the worry. I’m actually on the side that believes his bat won’t jump back either, but reports of improved defense have to help, and considering the priase he got coming into this year its hard to believe he has fallen off that much when it looks like he’ll stay at SS and stay average there (although one year of defensive metrics… =p).
Overall its a very very very good list. I felt Skipworth was high (I have him in the 90s), I don’t have Jeffress, Beltre, Borbon, Smardizja, Gio, or Inoa on at all.
Tillman, Stanton, Montero, and Posey are high IMO as well as Gorkys, Matty Moore, MaxRam, and Walden. I love your placement of Santana, Villalona (I have him a tad bit lower), Hicks, Main, and Porcello.
Overall this is one of the better if not the best list I’ve seen so far.
by Navi's_Navy on Dec 20, 2008 11:43 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
this is my top 50 list:
1.David Price
2.Matt Wieters
3.Jason Heyward
4.Travis Snider
5.Trevor Cahill
6.Cameron Maybin
7.Colby Rasmus
8.Madison Bumgarner
9.Rick Porcello
10.Neftali Feliz
11.Dexter Fowler
12.Mike Moustakas
13.Tim Alderson
14.Tommy Hanson
15.Chris Tillman
16.Matt Laporta
17.Andrew McCutchen
18.Lars Anderson
19.Jhoulys Chacin
20.Pedro Alvarez
21.Derek Holland
22.Elvis Andrus
23.Eric Hosmer
24.Brian Matusz
25.Jarrod Parker
26.Justin Smoak
27.Mike Stanton
28.Tim Beckham
29.Buster Posey
30.Fernando Martinez
31.Brett Anderson
32.Angel Villonia
33.Logan Morrison
34.Wade Davis
35.Jake Arrieta
36.Josh Vitters
37.James McDonald
38.Gordon Beckham
39.Jeff Samardzija
40.Freddie Freeman
41.Phillippe Aumont
42.Brett Cecil
43.Chris Carter
44.Adrian Cardenas
45.Wilmer Flores
46.Jason Donald
47.Carlos Santana
48.Carlos Triunfel
49.Matt Dominguez
50.Ben Revere
by Orioles77 on Dec 21, 2008 8:35 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
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