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150K's the new 200K's ???

While sitting around the old baseball hot stove,my mind went back to days of baseball past.

  •  
    •  
      • Back in the day a so called flame thrower was measured by 200 plus strikeouts a season. Today's counterparts (at least in my view) are put in that same category with 150 strikeouts plus.

 Some people in fantasy leagues use the stratigy that when picking pitchers for their team,number of K's weighs heavily in whom they select.

Well enough of my musings. I would like to hear your thoughts.Also, remember that the days start to get longer next week. Baseball season can't be far behind!!!

 

Always remember that opinions are like noses,everyone has one!!!

 

HAPPY HOLIDAYS

Star-divide

 

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300 career wins

So, according to that logic, what should be the new 300 wins? 225? 250?
300 wins used to be the “guarantee” to get into the HOF. What should be the benchmark now?
Here are the active players total wins from 150 on up. http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/W_career.shtml
Is Mussina retiring? Is Kenny Rogers retiring? Pettitte? Is Schilling done? A few of these guys may retire in the next 12 months.

Player (age) Wins Throws
Tom Glavine (42) 305 L
Randy Johnson (44) 295 L
Mike Mussina (39) 270 R
Jamie Moyer (45) 246 L
Kenny Rogers (43) 219 L
Curt Schilling (41) 216 R
Andy Pettitte (36) 215 L
Pedro Martinez (36) 214 R
John Smoltz (41) 210 R
Tim Wakefield (41) 178 R
Bartolo Colon (35) 150 R

The one constant through all the years, Ray, has been baseball. It reminds us of all that once was good, and that could be again.

by Savoy on Dec 18, 2008 9:33 PM EST reply actions  

300 is still the new 300 . . .

because in my opinion the only people on that list above that belong in the HOF are Glavine, Randy Johnson and John Smoltz . . . Glavine is over 300, Randy is close to 300 AND is on the all-time K list, Smoltz will get in ala Eckersley because of the combo of stud starter and stud closer.

by mestifo on Dec 18, 2008 10:08 PM EST up reply actions  

Pedro Martinez...

is a lock for the HOF. He was the best pitcher alive for 7 straight seasons (though injured in one), three of which rank high in the list of greatest pitching seasons of all time.

by slamcactus on Dec 18, 2008 10:13 PM EST up reply actions  

I dont know if I want to get into the Greatest Pitcher Alive argument

though I absolutely agree with you – perhaps best ever.

BUT there is absolutely zero chance Pedro Martinez isnt a first ballot HOF – and deservedly so… so Im not sure why he would be included on this list.

by alskor on Dec 18, 2008 10:30 PM EST up reply actions  

agreed

Pedro is a lock, wins be damned

I agree - Noonan is as valuable as a dead horse… and he too should be beaten by some dude in a top hat who looks like he’s holding his junk.

by cool hand Charlie on Dec 18, 2008 10:38 PM EST up reply actions  

The reason he is included on said list

is that he is an active pitcher with over 150 Wins. That is all that list is

by nms on Dec 18, 2008 11:37 PM EST up reply actions  

problem with the "greatest alive for...." statement

is that greg maddux was having similar, if not better, results with MUCH less stuff at the same exact time…the two overlapping sadly lessens the brillance of both in the eyes of historians, sadly….

Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results.

by biggentleben on Dec 19, 2008 5:35 PM EST up reply actions  

Not really...

Maddux was consistently great, but his two historically great seasons were before Pedro’s heyday. During Pedro’s peak run he was slightly better than Maddux at his best.

It’s splitting hairs, though. Both pitchers rank right there among the best ever and will be deserving HOFers when their respective times come.

by slamcactus on Dec 23, 2008 5:25 PM EST up reply actions  

Absurdity

That Koufax guy sure was a bum. And Bob Gibson, too. And Jim Palmer.

You’d do well to take a good long look at this list of all the pitchers in the Hall: http://www.baseball-almanac.com/hof/hofstpi.shtml. You might realize that 300 wins isn’t exactly the best barometer of greatness.

by Fanon on Dec 18, 2008 10:42 PM EST up reply actions  

hmmm?

Maybe you had a hard time understanding my comments. I believe I was saying that the 300 wins was a guaranteed lock into the HOF. At this point, we may never see 300 wins again—unless Randy Johnson makes it.
There are many GREAT pitchers that will never sniff 300 wins that absolutely belong in the Hall. Therefore, I don’t quite understand your absurdity claims. It was just discussed that Pedro is a lock to get in and won’t come near 300 wins either.
I don’t believe there was ever a claim that 300 wins is a “barometer of greatness.”

The one constant through all the years, Ray, has been baseball. It reminds us of all that once was good, and that could be again.

by Savoy on Dec 18, 2008 10:52 PM EST up reply actions  

Not for you

I was responding to mestifo’s “because in my opinion the only people on that list above that belong in the HOF are Glavine, Randy Johnson and John Smoltz”.

by Fanon on Dec 18, 2008 10:58 PM EST up reply actions  

I apologize

The one constant through all the years, Ray, has been baseball. It reminds us of all that once was good, and that could be again.

by Savoy on Dec 18, 2008 11:34 PM EST up reply actions  

Koufax, Palmer and Gibson . . .

I never said anything about any of those men, I simply made the statement that of the people on the list above I only believed three of them were HOFers and I implied that 300 wins is still a good qualification for “automatic” entry into the Hall. Please don’t put the words of “nobody under 300 wins belongs in the Hall” into my mouth . . . I never said that. It kind of pisses me off when one person misreads something and is so hot to respond that he leaves himself open to simple logic. If you want to be attack someone’s opinion at least have logic or their own words to use against them on your side.

I don’t see any reason why the 300 wins number should be discounted now or into the future.

by mestifo on Dec 19, 2008 12:45 AM EST up reply actions  

Okay...

But what you said, essentially, was that the only guys who belonged in the Hall were those who had 300 wins or the Smoltz/Eckersley exception. That’s not misreading what you wrote, it’s extrapolating on your comments. And if you think that Koufax, Palmer, and Gibson belong in the Hall, it’s absolutely ridiculous to say that Pedro doesn’t as well.

There’s a great reason to discount the 300 wins number: if 300 wins was the automatic entry barrier to the Hall for guys who made 40+ starts a year and pitched 300+ innings, it probably doesn’t fit very well in a game where guys make 30 starts, pitch 180 innings, and have understandably lower win totals. No pitcher has won 30 games since Denny McLain in 1968; this says a lot about the decline of win totals. It’s a lot harder to get accumulation stats like that if guys don’t have the opportunity to get as many wins as their predecessors did. Similarly, 500 homers should no longer provide for automatic entry to the Hall. In both cases it’s a matter of comparing apples to oranges.

by Fanon on Dec 19, 2008 10:41 AM EST up reply actions  

Every time someone reaches 300 these days...

… they are hailed as the last one.

Are Clemens and Maddux destined to be the last 300-game winners?

Tom Glavine, The Last Potential 300-Game Winner

Now I will wait for the Johnson articles.

Of course, this is silly. There are plenty of good young pitchers, and there will be more in the future. Why do people assume that they will all fail?

by aCone419 on Dec 19, 2008 3:12 PM EST up reply actions  

I don't think it will happen again

From that list posted above, RJ may be the only guy that has a chance. Mussina is done. I doubt Moyer gets 54 more wins. Rogers, Schilling, & Pettitte are close to being done. Pedro won’t win 90 more. . . and so on and so on.
If you do the math—there are very few guys that even get to 20 wins a year now—it will take a pitcher 15 straight years of 20 wins to get to 300. If we calculate 18 wins a year, it will take almost 17 years.
Impossible? No. Unlikely to happen again? I say yes.
Take Clayton Kershaw for example. Kershaw will be 21 at the beginning of the 2009 season. He had 5 wins this year. If he wins 20 games a year for the next 15 years, he will be 36 years old. If he wins 18 a year for the next 17 years, he will be 38. That will take a ton of luck to be on winning teams for that long a period of time as well as EXCELLENT health.
IMO, the numbers just aren’t in the favor of pitchers ever reaching 300 wins ever again.

The one constant through all the years, Ray, has been baseball. It reminds us of all that once was good, and that could be again.

by Savoy on Dec 19, 2008 4:08 PM EST up reply actions  

Disagree

The odds against an individual, say Kershaw, are long. The odds were more or less equally long against Maddux when he debuted. But that is different than the odds that one out of a large aggregate will win 300.

And I’ve seen that math proffered as an argument before, and it is sophistic. Yeah, if a player only plays from ages 21-35, then it will be nigh impossible for him to get to 300. But NO 300 winners are retiring at 36. All pitchers who reach that level are going strong well into their forties:

Name, Age Retired, # of Seasons

Maddux, 43, 23
Glavine, 42 at least, 22 at least
Johnson, 45 at least, 21 at least
Clemens, 45, 24
Carlton, 43, 24
Ryan, 46, 27
Sutton, 43, 23
Niekro, 48, 24
Perry, 44, 22

Greg Maddux never won more than 20 games in a season (and only twice at that), and he won over 350+. It is hardly necessary to reach 20 wins a season to reach 300.

Considering that pitchers are pitching effectively into their 40s pretty often these days, I am confident we’ll see another. Shoot, Moyer just got a two year deal. If he wins 15 both years, he’ll have over 275 and might still be truckin’. Do you have some reason to suspect that players are now LESS likely to make it to their 40s?

by aCone419 on Dec 19, 2008 4:43 PM EST up reply actions  

counterpoint

I guess my argument would be more that players are not pitching 225-275 innings per year anymore. I am guessing more front end starters will be in the 180-215 inning range per year and being taken out in the 6th or 7th innings, thus having a greater risk of “losing” their win. (maybe not the best way to articulate what I am trying to say but hopefully you get the point).
This could certainly prolong players careers as you are saying into their young 40’s.
As I mentioned, I am not saying 300 wins is impossible, but highly unlikely.
Secondly, the premise of the post was asking the question “What will be the benchmark for wins for ‘automatic’ entrance into the HOF?” One could guarantee that 300 wins puts you in the Hall. Is that number going to be lowered to, say, 260 or 280? Thus saying that if a pitcher reaches a specific number, you could nearly guarantee their admission to the HOF.

The one constant through all the years, Ray, has been baseball. It reminds us of all that once was good, and that could be again.

by Savoy on Dec 19, 2008 5:32 PM EST up reply actions  

Odds

The odds aren’t the same at all, guys are getting a few less starts than they were when Maddux started, and they’re getting a lot less innings. Ultimately, this means less opportunities for wins, no matter how you spin it. The odds were better for any pitcher coming up in the ’80s to reach 300 than they are for pitchers today, generally speaking.

The one argument in favor of the odds being the same are in regards to better conditioning and medicine, as successful comebacks from previously catastrophic injuries are a bit more common. Even so, there are just a lot less opportunities to collect wins with starters giving up the ball in the seventh.

by Fanon on Dec 19, 2008 7:46 PM EST up reply actions  

Not as low as 150 . . .

but I could get behind the fact that 175-180 K’s is the new 200K . . . that is actually the level I use for my fantasy type drafts.

by mestifo on Dec 18, 2008 10:03 PM EST reply actions  

Maybe I'm too into these newfangled statistics...

But wouldn’t K/IP be a better indicator than total strikeouts? Particularly when looked at in conjunction with BB/K? The reason folks don’t get 200 strikeout seasons as frequently anymore is just that they don’t pitch as many innings. So, to remedy this problem, how about we just look at the K/IP of those old 200 K guys and extrapolate that onto today’s pitchers? 200 is ultimately just another accumulation stat, and pretty meaningless in the grand scheme of things when compared to the far more relevant K/IP.

by Fanon on Dec 18, 2008 10:38 PM EST reply actions  

accumulation stats matter more than rate stats

when you are evaluating production over the course of a year (or years).

by nms on Dec 18, 2008 11:39 PM EST up reply actions  

Sometimes
Some people in fantasy leagues use the stratigy that when picking pitchers for their team,number of K’s weighs heavily in whom they select.

In this case, we’re talking about potential success going forward, mostly, considering that we’re evaluating for fantasy purposes. In this case, if a guy had 10 K/9 but only pitched 150 innings due to taking a comebacker off the elbow or some other type of freak injury that doesn’t necessarily have anything to do with arm health, it makes more sense to go after the guy with the rate stats than the guy with the accumulation stats. Obviously, if we’re talking HoF then accumulation stats are more important than rate stats, but in terms of establishing who a “flame thrower” is, the initial purpose of the thread, 150 Ks doesn’t mean much in terms of evaluating that if a guy is enough of a horse that he throws 240 innings or something.

I do get what you’re saying though.

by Fanon on Dec 18, 2008 11:47 PM EST up reply actions  

For fantasy purposes

I use 160K’s as my cutoff point. If you can stock 5 SP’s who can get you 160 K’s or more, you’re in pretty good shape. I does kind of come down to K/IP like it was mentioned above. A guy that throws 200 innings with 160 K’s is similar to the guys that would throw 250 innings with 200 K’s 25 years ago.

Due to the change to in the number of starts guys get now and the higher use of the bullpen, I don’t think we can really still go with 300 wins as the requirement for the HOF. I’d say anyone that started their career in 1990 or after is probably looking at 250 wins as their benchmark, although I could maybe see 260 or 270 even. Guys just don’t get enough chances to rack up 300 wins. I think it was over on BP a few weeks ago that there was a comparison of Bert Blyleven and Mike Mussina, because their win totals are both short of 300. Blyleven has 17 more wins, but it took him 149 more starts to get those extra 17 wins. That’s what, 4 and half years worth of starts for Mussina? He’d be well over 300 with that kind of additional time, but guys just don’t start 685 games in their careers anymore like Bert did.

"So's your mom"-David Sloane

by gatling on Dec 18, 2008 11:29 PM EST reply actions  

But Then We Realized

that we were talking about wins which are not a good measure of a pitcher’s true talent level. Not trying to knock you, just wanted the opportunity to be smarmy.

Realistically though, Mussina and Blyleven don’t compare as pitchers in my opinion. I think Tommy John is better than both of them, but that is beside the point. Blyleven is more “deserving” despite the lower wins (and admittedly a lower ERA+ and league adjusted ERAs) because of his longevity. Nearly 5000 innings of work (4970) is 1500 more innings than Mussina pitched regardless of the era. 3500 innings of Mike Mussina’s arguably superior work is less valuable, to me, than 5000 innings of Blylevene’s body of work.

Again, the issue of era in which they pitched is key, but to try and scale it into a more fair comparison. An ERA+ of 128 over 3500 or an ERA+ of 118 over 5000 (the last 900 or so of which were very sub par and if had not happened would have produced similar if not better numbers than Mussina’s). Should a pitcher be penalized for pitching later into his career despite some inneficiencies. I think Maddux’s stock rises because he pitched the past five years, despit those years being a far cry from what we know from Greg Maddux, because longevity should matter.

Pedro defies that rule by the way, he deserves in for his stretch of dominance. Glavine/Johnson/Smoltz/Pedro are the only four from that list I’d put in, however (Mussina has the best case next).

by Navi's_Navy on Dec 19, 2008 1:49 AM EST up reply actions  

Well

the wins thing deals with HOF voting, which unfortunately is well behind the times. I’d suggest going and reading the article at BP, they did an excellent job of really breaking it down. I think you might just change your mind.

"So's your mom"-David Sloane

by gatling on Dec 19, 2008 1:57 AM EST up reply actions  

Why is John better?

Not trying to be obnoxious here, but I am wondering why you believe John is better than Blyleven? Blyleven seems to beat him in virtually every category.

by yellomellojello on Dec 19, 2008 10:31 AM EST up reply actions  

You’ve obviously never need a Blylevectomy.

by aCone419 on Dec 19, 2008 3:13 PM EST up reply actions  

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