Prospect Smackdown: Lars Anderson v. Logan Morrison

by guru4u on Dec 18, 2008 9:58 AM EST Comment 25 comments

I am in a very competitive, prospect-heavy fantasy baseball league, and have recently been in negotiations with an owner that has both Lars and Morrison. This particular owner holds Lars in much higher regard, and at first glance I did as well. But then I started digging deeper into the numbers, and here is what I found:

General

Lars - DOB 9/25/87, 6'4", 215 LBs, L/L

Morrison - DOB 8/25/87, 6'2", 215 LBs, L/L

Draft

Lars - 18th Round, but seen as a late first round talent when he was drafted. He was also given first round $$ when signed.

Morrison - 22nd Round of the 2005 draft as a draft and follow guy. He was thought of as a first/second round talent and given that kind of $$ when signed.

2007 Stats

Lars - .292/.393/.446 10 HR, 35 2Bs, 112:71 K:BB, 2 SBs, almost all in the Sally League

Morrison - .267/.343/.483 24 HR, 22 2Bs, 96:48 K:BB, 2 SBs, all in the Sally League

2008 Stats

Lars - .317/.417/.517 18 HR, 32 2Bs, 107:75 K:BB, 0 SBs split between the Cal and Eastern leagues (306 and 133 ABs respectively, with the results not being much different between the leagues)

Morrison - .332/.402/.494, 13 HR, 38 2Bs, 80:57 K:BB, 9 SBs all in the FSL - known to be a severe pitchers league.

Both struggle vs. lefties, which is to be expected with a lefty prospect at this age, but Morrison did hit .300 in 60 ABs against lefties in 2008 while struggling in 2007. Lars, in comparison, hit only .211 against lefties in 2008 in 38 ABs.

It seems to me like both have huge power potential (evidenced by the HR and 2B totals). Morrison really pounded the ball in 2007 when he made contact, and I am not concerned about the drop in IsoP in 2008 because Jupiter is very much a pitchers park in a pitchers league. Lars upped his HR total, but he also hit in a very hitter-friendly park (Lancaster) in 2008 for the majority of his ABs. The positive sign is that his power continued when he was promoted to AA.

Both of these guys also make very good contact, though Lars' slightly higher Ks do give me a bit of pause. I'm not sold he'll be a .300 hitter in the bigs, maybe something closer to .280. You gotta love his BB total though, and while Morrison may carry a 10-20 point edge in BA, Lars more than makes up for it with his BBs (though Morrison did improve in this category significantly in 2008).

All in all, I don't really see much of a difference in these guys. They are the same age, same build, play the same position (though there are rumors that Morrison may be moved to the OF at some point). They have the same power potential, and will likely post around the same OBP based on their stats over the last 2 years. Morrison appears slightly more athletic due to his SB totals.

Perception is that Lars is the better prospect. After this analysis, I do not agree. I would put Morrison ever so slightly ahead due to the athleticism. But it is definitely very, very close.

2 recs | Comment 25 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

nice work

I love this kind of comparative assessment. Take a guy we’ve heard about a fair amount, and identify guys who might be their equivalents. If I were Brian Sabean, I’d hire you yesterday (10 years, $600,000, with a team option for 2019).

One suggestion is to add in total annual PAs or ABs to your post – would give us the ability to eyeball rate stats.

by siddfynch on Dec 18, 2008 10:21 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Thanks

I enjoy putting together this kind of analysis. Unfortunately with 2 kids and a job that keeps me pretty busy, I do not always find the time.

Good point about the ABs. Morrison had 453 and 488 ABs in 2007 and 2008, respectively. Lars had 493 and 439 ABs in 2007 and 2008, respectively.

by guru4u on Dec 18, 2008 11:21 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Very close indeed

If he holds Lars that much higher in regard, then going after Morrison would definitely be a good idea, because I agree that they are not that far apart.

On a side note, where do you think Morrison will rank on prospect lists this year? Will he be in the 20-30 range with Lars?

by brok515 on Dec 18, 2008 10:30 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Rankings

My guess is Lars is ranked 10-15 spots higher than Morrison in most prospect lists. As much as we may not like to admit it, media/coverage bias does get factored in to most every prospect ranking site (BA, BP, ESPN, etc) to some degree, and I think that bias is what will cause the ranking difference.

by guru4u on Dec 18, 2008 11:23 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Ranks this year

on the initial Community Synthesis lists I have compiled, (only 10, so small sample size warning),

Morrison: 28th overall, with an average placement of 40
Anderson: 18th overall, with an average placement of 22

Unfiltered data, so take ’em with a grain of salt. Am hoping this will get the juices flowing for more submissions!

by siddfynch on Dec 18, 2008 11:30 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm finishing up mine today.

Just have to get it into Excel. Will 2003 work for your setup? I think that’s what’s on the wife’s computer.

"So's your mom"-David Sloane

by gatling on Dec 18, 2008 12:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yup

In fact, I can’t handle the new Excel.

Looking forward to seeing it!

by siddfynch on Dec 18, 2008 5:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I posted this in the reminder thread

but I made a mistake on it. Prospect #127 should be Jemile Weeks not Rickie Weeks.

"So's your mom"-David Sloane

by gatling on Dec 18, 2008 5:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

They have the same power potential, and will likely post around the same OBP based on their stats over the last 2 years. Morrison appears slightly more athletic due to his SB totals.

I think the scouts would disagree with this part of your assessment. Lars has a good bit more power potential, and Morrison has a strong platoon split power issue:

[Morrison] has average to above-average power against right-handed pitchers…

The Bad: Morrison doesn’t have the power normally associated with the position he plays, and he sells out nearly all of his power against left-handers, as he focuses on contact against that side.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=8323

The Good: Anderson’s power potential is unmatched in the Boston system, but he’s hardly one-dimensional. He’s already showed excellent pitch recognition, and the ability to hit for an average, with a swing that scouts point to when asked about the prettiest around.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=6902

[Lars is a L]arge, powerful slugger with a great hitter’s frame, excellent present power, and an elite power ceiling. Extremely smooth and fluid swing

http://soxprospects.com/players/anderson-lars.htm

Also, Lars is quite athletic. He’s not some sort of lumbering hulk.

They are much closer than people seem to believe, though, and Morrison is underrated. Still, Lars is a clearly better prospect, IMO.

by alskor on Dec 18, 2008 11:22 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Power

Lars posted an IsoP of .154 and .200 in 2007 and 2008 respectively.

Morrison posted an IsoP of .21 and .162 in 2007 and 2008 respectively.

Jupiter happens to be one of the worst HR parks in the minors, with a park factor of .86 on HR per BaseballThinkFactory (Lancaster was a 1.17 on HR for comparison purposes, where Lars spent most of his time. Portland was a 1.02).

I know this is all stats based and not scouting based, but since they are the same age, faced simlar-leveled competition and have basically the same frame, stats are a great tool to use. And if you believe in the 2B turning into HR theory, Logan had 38 in 2008.

by guru4u on Dec 18, 2008 12:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Crap

Morrison’s IsoP was .216 in 2007. I forgot the last digit.

by guru4u on Dec 18, 2008 12:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Well

difference is scouting based, so the ISO isnt a big deal to me.

The bigger issue is the platoon split. As he advances levels this will probably separate the two.

by alskor on Dec 18, 2008 8:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Early on in the Community Poll

I suggested that Morrison was on the same level as Lars, and that I’d put Morrison ahead every so slightly. I still feel that way, which isn’t a slight to Lars by any means, it’s a reflection on how underrated Morrison is. If you go to minorleaguesplits.com and neutralize for park and luck, you’ll see just how close they really are. Anderson’s numbers are inflated due to the Cal League, and a crazy .432 BABIP in his short stint in AA. I think your analysis is spot on, and if the guy who has Morrison doesn’t value him correctly, good for you on likely getting a steal. Just hope he doesn’t read this site.

"So's your mom"-David Sloane

by gatling on Dec 18, 2008 12:28 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Lars raked...

in his brief stint in the Eastern League, so he’s a bit ahead of Morrison developmentally considering Morrison was in FSL all of ’08.

by psugator on Dec 18, 2008 1:10 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Lars had

a .432 BABIP in his AA time, inflating his line.

"So's your mom"-David Sloane

by gatling on Dec 18, 2008 1:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I did indirectly mention this

But failed to mention that Morrison raked himself in the AFL. In my mind, those two accomplishments offset.

by guru4u on Dec 18, 2008 1:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Home Parks

If you’re trying to project future numbers, you may want to consider their major league home parks… Andersen will be in a much better hitting situation than Morrison at the Majors.

by Ophidian on Dec 18, 2008 2:30 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

boston vs. morrison

that’s one of the biggest differences, if anderson makes it to the majors in 2010 he is going to be around the middle of a very very good lineup and in one of the better hitters’ parks in the majors, morrison is going to probably be in a very weak lineup in one of the better pitcher’s parks in the majors, they could be perfectly equal and anderson’s numbers will most likely be better in almost every facet

by IHateMitchMustain on Dec 18, 2008 7:21 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

One thing I will say

Is that prospects get dealt all the time, so I try not to project how they will do with their parent club when they may never actually play for their parent club. If Boston signs Tex, there’s no way Lars ever plays for the Red Sox. He may move to a much less favorable situation then… or maybe even more favorable. You just never know.

by guru4u on Dec 19, 2008 8:43 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Florida

moves into a new ballpark in 2011, or soon thereafter. Let’s wait and see, before we start talking about his home park. I’m confident if Cantu and Uggla can hit 30hr’s a year when they play half their home games in Florida, that he would be able to as well.

by MightyMoose on Dec 19, 2008 12:01 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Sure

but you better get him a platoon mate

by alskor on Dec 19, 2008 1:18 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

2008
vs. LHP – .293/.375/.422 15.3% IF fly

Career
vs. LHP – .247/.320/.396
vs RHP – .306/.383/.489

Morrison has serious trouble hitting for power against LHP. MAJOR CONCERN. This and scouting (power ceiling) is why it is Lars by a good margin.

Yes, his numbers look great overall… but a 1B who cant hit LHP isnt going far… Even if he does get better at it, its going to limit his ceiling versus Lars.

by alskor on Dec 19, 2008 3:34 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, but

Lars hit .217 against lefties last year – it’s not like he doesn’t have some major platoon splits as well. If anything, Lars is MORE of a concern vs. lefties. As you noted, Morrison actually improved vs. lefties in 2008.

The gap is not as big as you make it out to be IMO.

by guru4u on Dec 19, 2008 8:41 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

power

Lars has traditionally be seen as a power prospect over Morrison because it seems many places dont take into affect park factors. Not to even mention a few weeks back didnt our lovely host of our website here John himself say he sees Morrison with 30 hr type power? That doesnt sound like a lack to me

by Fishfan79 on Dec 19, 2008 8:46 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs