Prospect Smackdown: Lars Anderson v. Logan Morrison

I am in a very competitive, prospect-heavy fantasy baseball league, and have recently been in negotiations with an owner that has both Lars and Morrison.  This particular owner holds Lars in much higher regard, and at first glance I did as well.  But then I started digging deeper into the numbers, and here is what I found:


Lars - DOB 9/25/87, 6'4", 215 LBs, L/L

Morrison - DOB 8/25/87, 6'2", 215 LBs, L/L


Lars - 18th Round, but seen as a late first round talent when he was drafted.  He was also given first round $$ when signed.

Morrison - 22nd Round of the 2005 draft as a draft and follow guy.  He was thought of as a first/second round talent and given that kind of $$ when signed.

2007 Stats

Lars - .292/.393/.446 10 HR, 35 2Bs, 112:71 K:BB, 2 SBs, almost all in the Sally League

Morrison - .267/.343/.483 24 HR, 22 2Bs, 96:48 K:BB, 2 SBs, all in the Sally League

2008 Stats

Lars - .317/.417/.517 18 HR, 32 2Bs, 107:75 K:BB, 0 SBs split between the Cal and Eastern leagues (306 and 133 ABs respectively, with the results not being much different between the leagues)

Morrison - .332/.402/.494, 13 HR, 38 2Bs, 80:57 K:BB, 9 SBs all in the FSL - known to be a severe pitchers league.

Both struggle vs. lefties, which is to be expected with a lefty prospect at this age, but Morrison did hit .300 in 60 ABs against lefties in 2008 while struggling in 2007.  Lars, in comparison, hit only .211 against lefties in 2008 in 38 ABs. 

It seems to me like both have huge power potential (evidenced by the HR and 2B totals).  Morrison really pounded the ball in 2007 when he made contact, and I am not concerned about the drop in IsoP in 2008 because Jupiter is very much a pitchers park in a pitchers league.  Lars upped his HR total, but he also hit in a very hitter-friendly park (Lancaster) in 2008 for the majority of his ABs.  The positive sign is that his power continued when he was promoted to AA.

Both of these guys also make very good contact, though Lars' slightly higher Ks do give me a bit of pause.  I'm not sold he'll be a .300 hitter in the bigs, maybe something closer to .280.  You gotta love his BB total though, and while Morrison may carry a 10-20 point edge in BA, Lars more than makes up for it with his BBs (though Morrison did improve in this category significantly in 2008). 

All in all, I don't really see much of a difference in these guys.  They are the same age, same build, play the same position (though there are rumors that Morrison may be moved to the OF at some point).  They have the same power potential, and will likely post around the same OBP based on their stats over the last 2 years.  Morrison appears slightly more athletic due to his SB totals.

Perception is that Lars is the better prospect.  After this analysis, I do not agree.  I would put Morrison ever so slightly ahead due to the athleticism.  But it is definitely very, very close.

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