Colorado Rockies Top 20 Prospects for 2009
by John Sickels on Dec 17, 2008 5:15 PM EST
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All grades are EXTREMELY PRELIMINARY and subject to change. Don’t get too worried about exact rankings at this point, especially once you get out of the top 10. Grade C+/C guys are pretty interchangeable depending on what you are looking for.
1) Dexter Fowler, OF, Grade A-: Great tools and skills are coming along nicely. Power is the main question…maybe a B+?
2) Jhoulys Chacin, RHP, Grade B+: Ground balls and strikeouts. I think he is still underrated to some extent, though Double-A will tell us a lot. If K/IP and K/BB remain strong, look out.
3) Christian Friedrich, LHP, Grade B: Borderline B-. Need to see at higher levels, but has a Zito-esque ceiling.
4) Wilin Rosario, C, Grade B-: Need to see how plate discipline stand up at higher levels. Grade could rise very quickly.
5) Connor Graham, RHP, Grade B-: Borderline C+. Excellent potential, but walk rate is too high.
6) Michael McKenry, C, Grade C+: Borderline B-. Is C+ too low? Like the power and the caught stealings, worried about contact and error rate.
7) Eric Young JR, 2B-OF, Grade C+: Borderline B-. Speed, walks, but defensive questions.
8) Aneury Rodriguez, RHP, Grade C+: What am I missing here? Why don’t other people like him? He’s young, has a live arm, and has pitched well.
9) Casey Weathers, RHP, Grade C+: Would rank third if not for Tommy John.
10) Charlie Blackmon, OF, Grade C+: Great tools, hit well in debut, need to see against better pitching.
11) Darin Holcomb, 3B, Grade C+: Excellent plate discipline. But power and defense need to show at higher levels.
12) Will Harris, RHP, Grade C+: Live arm, good track record in A-ball, need to see at higher levels. I like him more than most do.
13) Dan Mayora, INF; Grade C: Toolsy, athletic, but will he hit?
14) Hector Gomez, SS, Grade C: Missed year due to injury. Great tools, but his bat was pretty bad in 2007. Could turn into Angel Berroa. Is this too low? Most people would rank him much higher, but I’ve got big doubts about the bat.
15) Seth Smith, OF, Grade C: Too old to rank higher, but a very solid major league role player.
16) Chris Nelson, INF, Grade C: Who the hell knows? Awful at
17) Brandon Hynick, RHP, Grade C: He pitched much better in the second half, but lack of stuff precludes higher grade at this time.
18) Parker Frazier, RHP, Grade C: Very young, projectable, made big strides this year and is a sleeper for 2009.
19) Chaz Roe, RHP, Grade C: Mediocre numbers have never matched promising scouting reports. Still young enough to improve.
20) Delta Cleary, OF, Grade C: Uber-toolsy guy is very raw but stands out for high ceiling.
Others: Sam Deduno, RHP; Stephen Dodson, RHP; Thomas Field, SS; Jon Herrera, INF: Dan Houston, RHP; Shane Lindsay, RHP; Tyler Massey, OF; Matt Miller, OF; Brian Rike, OF; Kiel Roling, 1B-C; Aaron Weatherford, RHP; Keith Weiser, LHP; Corey Wimberly, OF-INF; Kurt Yacko, RHP.
If there is someone else that you really think should be included, make your case. I always miss someone. Space is limited and some of the players above will probably get cut if I have to add someone else.
SYSTEM IN BRIEF:
This organization has really thinned out but there is still some talent here. I love both Fowler and Chacin, though both are right on the B+/A- edge. After that it gets murky, and there is a lot of uncertainty in the B-/C+ area. I might move Graham down and McKenry up a notch. Tools infielders with questionable bats like Gomez and Mayora are not easy to grade. I’ve seen so many of those guys fail over the years that my skepticism about them is pretty high at this point, at least until they show me something in Double-A. Chris Nelson is another enigma: he could hit .220 in Triple-A, or he could surprise everyone and end up contributing in the majors sooner than expected. The Grade C guys could move up and down the list easily and I just pointed out the ones who are most interesting to me.
Reports on these guys and over 1,000 others can be found in the 2009 Baseball Prospect Book. Pre-order for January 31st shipping now!
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That isn't all you should be able to look forward to...
…but have fun with it.
Who's world is it? It's yours.
No Jo Ko
No love for Joe Koshansky? I would think he’d at least fit in the “others”.
Otherwise, the grades seem fair enough.
I don't think
he’s rookie-eligible
--Pablo Zevallos of yankeesfuture.wordpress.com
by Pablo Zevallos on Dec 17, 2008 7:13 PM EST up reply actions
Juan Morillo?
Surprised not to see him, at least at the bottom. 100 mph fastballs usually buy you a lot of slack. Control problems have doomed him maybe?
I think this system has a large number of C players that could end up pretty useful or even good players.
morillo
I thought about him because of the fastball, but his command was just horrid in Triple-A. Maybe I should put him in as a C.
by John Sickels on Dec 17, 2008 9:59 PM EST up reply actions
McKenry's error rate shouldn't be held against him.
Modesto’s defensive unit was pretty awful this season, but McKenry’s receivers probably had a lot more to do with that than he did. By the same token Mayora should probably be downgraded for his. The Padres skipped him to choose E-Cab partly because Cabrera’s the better defender by a good margin. Aneury Rodriguez was also superficially hurt by the Nuts’ D last season, so you are okay ranking him as high as you do (I just forgot about him the other day).
You forgot or underrate Scott Robinson. He was pushed to left by Blackmon in Tri-City, but still has the range to play center, a cannon for an arm, and is well ahead of the curve as far as power goes for a 19 year old DFE.
Tri-City’s average SLG the last two seasons was .379, Robinson hit .408 despite being a couple years younger than the players the Rockies typically put there. He was the only teenager to land in the top 20 in the NWL’s HR leaderboard despite playing half his games in a park that depresses them by over 20%. I wonder if I’m the only person that notices this.
Seconded
Morales will be 23 in January and only threw 25 IP for the Rox this year and 39 the year before (the rest in the AA/AAA). Does that mean he’s not in their top 20 and fallen off the face of the Earth after being an A-? I think someone here said it was a mechanical problem and maybe he has ironed things out in the Winter Leagues?
For Caracas:
9 starts – 46 IP 46 H 12/33 bb/k
Could there be hope, John?
He's just over the 45 day roster limit for ROY eligibility
So he’d probably be precluded from most prospect lists even if he’s easily in the Rox top 15 talent under 25.
Other
He’s also over the 50IP rookie eligibility requirements (64 total)
A chunk of those were in September, though
Which means they wouldn’t count if he wasn’t over the 45 day mark.
September only doesn't count towards service time
it still counts towards IP. Although the rules have apparently gone to hell since Volquez earned ROY votes.
Accidentally not thedude925 anymore. I do hate this new name.
I must have gotten it reversed then...
And yeah, given what happened with Volquez, maybe Rockies fans should petition to get Morales’ rookie eligibility reinstated for a do-over.
Fowler
B+ for him . . .the power is a pressing concern for me. The guy’s spent his minor league career playing in very hitter-friendly environments and hasn’t topped 9 HR yet. XBH total is solid but not that great when you consider that he hit .335 last year. Most encouraging sign for future power production is based on height more than anything else.
Maybe he’ll turn out okay. But I’m convinced that, at least at this point, Fowler is a singles hitter with speed and some gap power masquerading as a future slugger in the making. I think he can hit for average, but is he really that much better (if at all) than an Andrew McCutchen?
Certainly better than McCutchen
Packing up for team USA and the Olympics undoubtedly cost him a few HR’s this season, his ISO of .180 is much better than anything Andrew’s done at this level. His power is slow developing because ultimately it will come mostly from the left side and he only started learning how to switch hit after the Rockies drafted him. I don’t buy that it’s going to be over 20 HR’s most seasons, but it should be at least 15/yr with a high number of doubles and triples like a Curtis Granderson type. You’d be talking about 65-70 XBH overall compared to 45-50 for McCutchen in their primes.
McCutchen
Using the ol’ minor league equivalancy calculator, if you put McCutchen in Tulsa his line is .307/.400/.440. Still not quite as good as Fowler, but he’s also younger by one baseball year. So if you put Fowler in Indy, his line would be .309/.390/.465. That looks pretty equal to me. Given the 75 point difference in BABIP, I’d lean heavily toward McCutchen based on those numbers.
I’ve got ‘Cutch rated higher than Fowler and in the top 5 overall, but I’m a sucker for toolsy 22 year old centerfielders that have improved both their walk and K rates every step of the way including 590 PA at AAA. Of course I’d like to see a little more power, but he doesn’t need it to be an average regular starting immidiately…or in Pirates time, on June 1st, 2009.
A-
Well, 49 XBH in 421AB’s is pretty darn good for a guy who projects to have even more power down the road. I have seen him critisized for having an unusually high BABIP this year and people say that drove his .335 batting average. Fair enough. So lets drop that batting average by a whole 35 points to compeensate for the high BABIP. Would that be fair? it would still put his batting average and on base percentage at .300/.396 which are VERY good nubmers regardless of BABIP or any other factor, because he is walking at a healthy clip. The slugging is a little harder to determine because you could cherry pick which hits you say he wouldnt have on those 35 points of batting average he is losing. Regardless he would still likely have an OPS in the range of .850-.900 which is still awesome when you consider his 5 tools, potential, age, position, and numbers themselves. I think he is an A- guy even when people try to normalize his stats with BABIP and league influence.
I agree - Noonan is as valuable as a dead horse… and he too should be beaten by some dude in a top hat who looks like he’s holding his junk.
by cool hand Charlie on Dec 18, 2008 10:13 AM EST up reply actions
Fowler/ Mccutcheon/ Schafer?
out of Dexter Fowler..Jordan Schafer and Mccutcheon…who is the best Def CF and who would you rather have on your team?
Defensively..
I know McCutchen has some work to do. Heard an interview with one of the coaches from the Indy Indians over the summer, and he mentioned that ‘Cutch needed to work on getting better breaks on the ball. Caught me off guard a bit, since I’d heard prior that the kid was going to be very solid in center.
For what it’s worth, minors.baseball-reference.com shows that Fowler’s (2.48 in 2008) had the best range factors fairly consistently, with McCutchen (2.33) not far behind and Schafer (2.06) trailing by a larger margin. Defensive statistics are mildly open to interpretation I guess, but if one guy has consistently been better according to rf/9, it probably means something. But again, take that for what it’s worth.
Would be interested to hear what the scouts have to say.
"mildly" open?
are you kidding me?
Understatement of the year
Especially when you’re considering that
A. you’re looking at just one cherry-picked stat.
B. Looking at minor league D numbers which are notoriously unreliable
I'm not going to pretend
that I know the answer to this one. I have never actually seen any of the 3 play a game. I read prospect reports and look at stats.
I agree - Noonan is as valuable as a dead horse… and he too should be beaten by some dude in a top hat who looks like he’s holding his junk.
by cool hand Charlie on Dec 19, 2008 8:33 AM EST up reply actions
Bruce Billings
Anyone with any information on Bruce Billings?
Professional minor leaguer
I think most would consider Billings the perfect organizational type pitcher. He gets the most out of his abilities and even throws out a surprise or two every once in awhile. He comes to pitch every 5th day and eats up innings. What he lacks in size and repertoire… he makes up for in determination.
I would imagine he’ll top out in Modesto next season. Maybe get some time in AA at some point either with the Rockies or some other organization.
I would think of him a level or two below a C- in this scale. No plus pitches… only endurance and pitching guile.
I somewhat disagree
I really came away more impressed by Billings the more I saw him this season. He does get his FB over 90 and has decent movement to his slider, if he can get a couple more mph in relief work he’d be a quality Jason Grilli type of middle reliever.
Thanks for the information
Thank you for the information. I just pick Billings and Parker Frazier up in a deal in a very deep league based on numbers and wanted to know if anyone had seen them. Is there anything you could add about Parker, I was definitely glad to see him make John’s list.
by NMUWildcat027 on Dec 18, 2008 8:07 PM EST up reply actions
Frazier
Parker will be in Asheville next year so Rox Girl will get a good look at him then. I saw him in Casper once in 2007. Scouts say he has a projectable body. I saw a skinny kid. He has that comfort level on the mound you like to see and its easy to tell that baseball is in his blood (his Dad is George Frazier who pitched in the big leagues for 10 years).
Once his body fills out and his fastball clicks up a notch or two, I think you’ll have yourself a nice pitcher for years to come.
If Reynolds had eligibility....?
where would he be on this list after a terrible summer?
A B- maybe?
IMO
Probably a C/C+.
AAA hitters hit .328 off him and he didn’t strike anyone out (37 in 63). Lots of health problems too – shoulder surgery in 2007, impingement in his shoulder in 2008.
fowler/mckenry
i think fowler’s a solid A-. has the combo of defense, tools, and production. Mckenry to me is a clear B-. Mike Napoli with a great arm isn’t to be sneezed at, though that depends how much you consider his AFL burst.
For comparison
Here’s Goldstein’s COL list
Five-Star Prospects
1. Dexter Fowler, CF
2. Jhoulys Chacin, RHP
Four-Star Prospects
3. Wilin Rosario, C
Three-Star Prospects
4. Christian Friedrich, LHP
5. Casey Weathers, RHP
6. Michael McKenry, C
7. Hector Gomez, SS
8. Connor Graham, RHP
9. Eric Young Jr., 2B/OF
10. Charles Blackmon, CF
Two-Star Prospects
11. Seth Smith, OF
Just Missed: Darin Holcomb, 3B; Chris Nelson, SS; Chaz Roe, RHP
Everth Cabrera...
would he have made the list if he hadn’t been rule V’d?
Field's not a bad sleeper candidate,
John obviously likes his batting eye (42 BB/34 K), and he’s a decent defender and high energy player. He’s going to need to develop more power to be a legit prospect, though. I’d rank him the fifth best prospect for the Dust Devils behind Friedrich, Blackmon, Frazier and Robinson, just ahead of Leo Reyes, but it’s close.
EY Jr
I’m an RU graduate, and actually took some classes with EY Sr., so I’m a little bit biased.
I think he should be a solid B
A .391 OBP in Tulsa with 46 SB’s at a 74% success rate has significant value.
On-Base 50% of the time in 100 AB’s in the AZ Fall league looks pretty nice too. (20:1 SB/CS there too!) K/BB ratios seem solid as well. 70:60 in 2008
Haven’t seen the fielding, so I can’t comment there. Would he benefit from OF time like his father did? Or does he then not have enough power to be an OF? His 14 errors at a MI position don’t seem so terrible when you look at the rest of the Drillers MI.
If it wasn't for disappointments, I wouldn't have any appointments.
+1
With what the Rox have at 2B, I gotta believe they want EY Jr to stick there if at all possible. CF makes no sense given Fowler’s presence, unless they truly believe EY will only ever be a utility player (which is definitely in the realm of possibilities).
I like the BB and SB rates a lot though. He could have quite a bit of value as a true leadoff guy playing average to slightly below average D at 2B.
Hirsh
Although not a prospect, what is Hirsh’s status….Is he a change of scenery guy or a dud?
by Botticelli's Niece on Dec 19, 2008 10:17 PM EST reply actions
Hawaii
Saw a sleeper mentioned in Baseball America. Andy Graham seemed to be very effective until his injury in Hawaii. Wonder how he would have done with more outings?
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