Don't Believe the Hype - Tyler Flowers, C, CHW
by Baseball Handyman on Dec 13, 2008 9:47 AM EST
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A good friend of mine who owns Tyler Flowers in a fantasy baseball league I participate in believes Flowers' breakout AFL campaign is the beginning of HUGE things to come. My advice to him was to keep his expectations for Flowers at pre-AFL levels since winter ball standouts don't always turn out to be as good as the numbers indicate.
Yes, a .387/.460/.973 is insane for little league, let alone the AFL, but is a twenty game sample ever enough to truly determine Flowers' worth going forward? My answer is no!
Instead of focusing solely on twelve home runs in twenty games, I prefer to use it as a piece of a much bigger prospect puzzle. Does a 6'4" catcher who shows a stretch of monumental power deserve a bump in prospect status? Yes, but not nearly as much as some are making it out to be.
To truly assess Flowers' prospect value, one simply can't ignore the following information:
- Shortly after the calendar turns to 2009, Flowers will be 23 and will not have an at bat above A+ ball. In comparison, Delmon Young is four months older than Flowers and has logged well over 1300 big league at bats.
- While Flowers currently plays catcher, from everything I've read, I would put the odds of him remaining behind the plate at 70/30 against. A move to first base means the power isn't a bonus, it's a must sapping much of his additional perceived value.
- The Braves traded him QUICKLY after the end of the AFL! This is huge as the deal reeks of the Braves selling high and jumping at an opportunity to land a 200 inning workhorse without dealing Freeman, Heyward, Hanson, or Schafer.
- Flowers STILL ranked in the bottom quarter of Baseball America's top 20 AFL prospects.
- I have not read a single analysis of Flowers' performance saying his stock has significantly risen post AFL as he was, and still is a borderline top 100 player.
- AFL statistics can be misleading as Eugenio Velez and Sam Fuld were two of the breakout performers from the 2007 AFL season. While both are not the prospects Flowers is, it's a good indicator of how misleading AFL output can be.
When combining his .291/.400/.488 career minor league line, AFL performance, and anecdotal information, I'm left agreeing with most prospect analysts who consider him a borderline top 100 player even after his dominating fall. At this point, too many question marks surround Flowers to consider him an elite talent.
Going forward, I would recommend Flowers owners to copy the Braves blueprint and strike while the iron is hot on Flowers. His perceived value to some will never be higher and if Flowers can land you a top 50 guy or solid veteran, I'd make the move. Flowers' situation is a lot like Jarrod Saltalamacchia's in that his power potential is elite for behind the plate, but average for a first baseman. With Flowers unlikely to stick at catcher, no time is better than the present to cash in on his value.
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Flowers
I still like him. He’s still available in my league. All he costs is a roster spot.
Agreed.
I think Flowers will be an excellent hitter, though he will likely be at first base or DH. I like the power, but I love the combination with the plate discipline.
I think the Braves were wise to sell high on him since he loses some value moving from behind the plate which is almost a certainty.
are you serious?
are you an MLB scout? just wondering. because ken williams actually gets paid to be a general manager and he couldn’t disagree with you more. check out what he said after acquiring flowers:
“I think this guy will be an All-Star catcher,” GM Kenny Williams said, adding the White Sox had no plans to move him to another position. “For his size, he has a lot of agility behind the plate and he throws the ball extremely well. … I think he will be a heck of an offensive catcher and a solid defensive catcher behind the plate.”
nowhere does it say that flowers will be moved off catcher. yet so many people on this site insist that he’ll be moved off the position. last time i checked ken williams was the gm of the white sox. and you guys …. well, i won’t even go there :-)
Grain of salt
I’m sure the Sox wil give him as much chance as possible to stay there – still not sold on the ability for him there long term, regardless of what Kenny says… which is what he should be saying for now. I think a lot of the “won’t stay at catcher” stuff comes from him being behind McCann when he was with Atlanta, we’ll just have to wait and see. I like what Williams has done for the most part, but let’s not forget about what he thought about Todd Ritchie either.
Of course Kenny Williams is going to say that.
Is he going to badmouth Flowers’ defense instead?
Kenny Williams may be the GM of the White Sox, but he’s made his share of boneheaded trades as well. Ones that looked terrible from the very beginning. Carlos Lee for Podsednik comes to mind…
Meh
The Carlos Lee trade was actually pretty good. Podsednick – for as much as I think was always a piece of shit – was an important player for them that year. It also freed up the money to sign Pierzinski and Dye – and it’s really hard to argue with the results as those were three starters for a WS title year.
Kenny has had a few blunders such as the Todd Ritchie trade, but he’s also pulled a few absolute coups – Danks/Jenks/Quentin to name a few.
Meh
The fact that the Sox did well IN SPITE of running Podsednik out in LF doesn’t make it a good trade. Williams dealt a very valuable piece for a guy with replacement-level, freely available talent. It doesn’t matter what the results were as a team, that trade says a lot about a guy’s talent evaluation.
And that said, he’s made some great talent-evaluation trades as well. Williams is really an enigma as GM.
The results don't matter?
I think just about anyone and everyone getting paid by a major league organization would take the totally opposite point of view. The results are the ONLY thing that matters.
The one "bad" move there
was the Lee deal. Without it, they don’t win the World Series. But I’m not going to get into one of these types of arguments again… anyway, I’m sure this helped fill the gap in Pods’ time with the Sox:
http://www.billjamesonline.net/fieldingbible/charts/leaders2-0507.gif
Notice the bottom part of the LFers, too. The defense on that team was the main reason of the pitching staff “fluke”, I believe. Aside from Dye, they were rock solid. Now, you can’t look at this trade in a vacuum because Williams knew he was losing value, but it was necessary to create the team he envisioned. You can still argue that he’s an enigma, but I wouldn’t include this as part of it.
If you’re willing, I could help provide insight on his methods, if you’re wondering about anything, because I’ve been discussing and pondering these things for years. Between the good and the bad, I’m glad he’s my favorite team’s GM if only for the excitement and bewilderment.
by Daniel Berlyn on Dec 15, 2008 10:05 PM EST up reply actions
That sounds like a really interesting diary
You should write it
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by OldProspects on Dec 16, 2008 10:33 AM EST up reply actions
good job
you have shown that you apparently think he is good and don’t want the other owner in your league to get too much for him in a trade because you are jealous that you didn’t pick him up first
by IHateMitchMustain on Dec 13, 2008 11:07 AM EST reply actions
wow, hater
"If you hit .440 with 20 bombs, you don't have to do s---. You don't have to bring a glove to practice, just hit and leave whenever you want. You can bring a 40 and smoke a cigarette and call me from the parking lot asking me what time the game is, and I'll tell you. You can even say 'F--- you, Steve!' Actually, don't say that, that wouldn't be very nice." -Steve Friend, Head Coach, Chabot College Gladiators Baseball
Kinda obvious from the SN
which is castigating a fucking amateur football player, at that.
I don’t get guys who go after amateur athletes. I really don’t. Way beyond asinine. Anyone who boos players at a college (or, worse, high school/youth) sports game should have their thumb broken off at the root.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
That's the worst.
Lose a finger, you’ve still got an almost fully-functioning hand. Lose a thumb and you’ve pretty much got a flipper with fingers.
what about amateur assholes
you obviously think that when an amateur wanna be athlete has a meeting with the athletic director about how he should be starting and wants to get him to make the coach do it that that means this athlete deserves our sympathy, how he held the university hostage and de-commited at the last minute and told them they had to hire his HS coach with no experience to be the offensive coordinator or he wouldn’t go there, so they did, and of course the HS coach tried to make mcfadden, felix and hillis, all nfl RBs, run some BS gimmick offense, so obviously they stopped letting that loser call plays, you apparently think it is cool that his mommy publicly cried about how it was unfair that her son wasn’t starting over these ncaa athletes as a true freshmen, how she ran a smear campaign and probably screwed half of the board so they would run him out of town, now we are stuck with no talent, a coach who will run away at the first chance of a better job, we lost to ole miss which is an embarrasment (at least FLA did too) and now the coach who grew up bleeding razorback red is doing a great job turning their program around
yeah, feel bad for that douche bag and make fun of me for talking bad about that whining prick, which i still actually haven’t done, simply said i hate him, which i do, all for very valid reasons
by IHateMitchMustain on Dec 13, 2008 11:54 PM EST up reply actions
do you know him personally?
"If you hit .440 with 20 bombs, you don't have to do s---. You don't have to bring a glove to practice, just hit and leave whenever you want. You can bring a 40 and smoke a cigarette and call me from the parking lot asking me what time the game is, and I'll tell you. You can even say 'F--- you, Steve!' Actually, don't say that, that wouldn't be very nice." -Steve Friend, Head Coach, Chabot College Gladiators Baseball
do you?
because apparently anyone that would defend him would need to think they do
by IHateMitchMustain on Dec 14, 2008 12:05 AM EST up reply actions
gotta know someone personally to hate them
"If you hit .440 with 20 bombs, you don't have to do s---. You don't have to bring a glove to practice, just hit and leave whenever you want. You can bring a 40 and smoke a cigarette and call me from the parking lot asking me what time the game is, and I'll tell you. You can even say 'F--- you, Steve!' Actually, don't say that, that wouldn't be very nice." -Steve Friend, Head Coach, Chabot College Gladiators Baseball
No you don't
For example “I hate Hitler”. Some people are just more ‘hateable’ then others.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Dec 14, 2008 2:19 AM EST up reply actions
I'll Bring a Counterpoint
Which is that you can hate what someone does, and that can take away your respect for that person, but its unfair to hate someone without knowing them.
Do I hate what Hitler did? Yes
Do I respect him? No
Do I hate him? Don’t know ’em, but I probably would if I did
by Navi's_Navy on Dec 14, 2008 10:46 AM EST up reply actions
Counterpoint
For a better example:
Somebody kills somebody close to you (i.e. your wife or child). You have never met this person but you know who they are and what they did. Do you not think you would ‘hate’ them?
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Dec 14, 2008 12:46 PM EST up reply actions
Point 1
is a terrible twisting of things. He was 22 in hi-a… big deal for somone who was still being tried at the catcher position. Delmon was largely viewed as THE top prospect and is a different animal altogether. He came up at a young age – an outlier to the average age of players making their debut – and your penalizing Flowers for that?
i agree slurve, it would seem the author is guilty of cherry picking his comparison point.
however, the sell high sentiment on flowers is something to consider. i have him in a dynasty sim league. i have an organizational weakness at catcher, so i’ll move him for an mlb-ready catcher, but i probably have to hold on to him on the hope that he pans out for me.
I agree with most of the rest
of what he has to say, just found his 1st point absolutely terrible. I don’t take things as seriously when it’s obvious the person is trying too hard / being completely non-objective.
Catcher?
One thing to consider regarding his age is that catchers usually progress slower than others. ie: Delmon Young (of)
i'm NOT saying you are wrong
but i have never actually seen a scouting report blatantly say he could stay at catcher, i’ve seen a million comments about him not staying at catcher, but i am pretty sure at least 9/10 are based off someone seeing the last guy say something about him not being able to stay at catcher…I know cbs is probably the worst, but they did go out of their way to say he would and could be able to catch in the majors, but that he was blocked by mccann and that is why so many people were making comments about him not “staying” at catcher
by IHateMitchMustain on Dec 14, 2008 12:08 AM EST up reply actions
Interesting.
Excellent write-up and I agree with the conclusion: he’s likely more valuable in a trade now than as a 1B in the future. As a Braves fan, I liked Flowers and think he’d even be a solid 1B in the majors, but I don’t mind that we dealt him when we did and for what we did.
Here we go again: http://thefulldeck.blogspot.com/
But...
I heard he was too much for Javier Vazquez all on his own. Hmmm.
i'll hold on to tyler flowers...thanks, tho
the braves traded flowers so therefore he must be flawed. this was shot down a few years ago when the braves traded away adam wainwright. moving neftali feliz also supports my assertion. just because the braves trade away a player doesn’t mean that player can’t turn into a stud.
—ken williams is the man….he acquired flowers for a reason…..he realizes that flowers loses value as a 1B/DH, that’s why i believe williams wants to keep flowers at catcher. from everything i’ve read, williams will keep flowers at catcher (even with the supposedly bad defense)
—flowers was turning into a very nice prospect even before the AFL
—there is nothing wrong with Flowers playing the 2009 season as a 23-year-old in Double A. who said that a 23-year-old in double-A was old? that age is appropriate for a player in double-A.
—just because certain AFL MVPs have flopped as major-leaguers does not mean Flowers will flop
please understand that flowers was competing in arizona against some of the game’s best prospects, and he put together the best offensive season ever for an AFL hitter. go ahead and tell other owners to sell-high on flowers. i, however, will be holding on to him.
how about brandon wood
I’m not arguing, all i know is wood had 14 homers to flowers’ 12, i’m sure wood K’d like a bandit, but i’m sure that season must have been close if not better than this one
by IHateMitchMustain on Dec 14, 2008 12:10 AM EST up reply actions
Brandon Wood
Wasn’t aware he was playing in the AFL. Anyone know his stats?
The 2008 Rogelio Moret League Fantasy Baseball Champions!
by The Congo Hammer on Dec 14, 2008 1:26 AM EST up reply actions
Some more of this
is rubbing me the wrong way…
4. Flowers STILL ranked in the bottom quarter of Baseball America’s top 20 AFL prospects.
Well, yeah… but look at most of the names in front of him. The list alos has some quirks as to how it’s organized IIRC.
5. I have not read a single analysis of Flowers’ performance saying his stock has significantly risen post AFL as he was, and still is a borderline top 100 player
Maybe because everyone one doing the analysis already knows what you point out next – that AFL performance isn’t something to base upticks in stock on?
I agree that you should ignore the AFL stats for the most part
But at the same time, that 30% chance of him being a C with his power and patience gives him a TON of upside. If he stays at C, his downside is David Ross, and his upside is through the room. If he moves to 1B, his upside is probably Dunn (unlikely he reaches it) with a downside of AAAA slugger. He was a solid prospect with a lot of position-dependent upside before the AFL, and he’s still about the same.
you have to understand
that he is trying to get readers to his site (www.baseballhandyman.com). it’s a great site….i actually try to read it every day. the guy is well-spoken, a good writer, he actually played baseball in college, and he has done some scouting work on the side. but at times he tries to be overly controversial on purpose to spur debate, which i think he’s done with flowers.
college baseball
wow, i feel as though i am in the humbled prescence of greatness
by IHateMitchMustain on Dec 14, 2008 12:01 PM EST up reply actions
scouting report
Flowers always had better power than his stats indicated. He has elite power at ANY position IMO. I think the AFL was just a hint that its there. He has much more power than Salty. Guys who hit for power the way he does or is capable of and walking at his rate are a very valuable commodity. Thats why I have him borderline top 50. I was a big fan before the AFL, I didnt need to be further convinced. Hanson and Schafer werent traded because they project as starters on next year’s team. Heyward is untouchable.
borderline top 100 player
Calling Flowers a “borderline top 100 player” is hardly an insult. That still makes him the third best White Sox prospect, unless you’re super-high on Viciedo.
by BaseballEvolution on Dec 13, 2008 7:02 PM EST reply actions
A few things about Flowers
1. bravitos said he had “much more power than Salty.” I find this hard to believe considering Salty had a better slugging percentage (.519 to .494) at two years Flowers’ junior and is already in the bigs and was in the bigs at the same age Flowers is right now.
2. It’s not that I hate Flowers or even have a bias against him. When I hear Flowers come up in the same prospect conversation as Heyward/Freeman I shudder and this is what’s been happening before he was dealt based on his AFL performance.
Fact is from a dynasty league fantasy baseball standpoint, Flowers value will likely NEVER be higher and exploring trade options is in my opinion the right thing to do.
As a former catcher, I understand the difficulty of playing the position and how long it takes to become passable. As a guy who played at 5’9", 200 lbs., I also understand how difficult it is to be 6’4" and stay at the position when it’s not your natural position to begin with. Take a look at the number of catchers above 6’2" who are actually everyday big leaguers with value. The totals are few and far between and usually limited to truly elite athletes.
The age is a legitimate issue because even if he can stay at catcher, he will likely need at least another two full seasons in the minors to get to the point of being ready for everyday duty. This puts him at what? 25 when he’s ready to break through? Is it more likely he will come up no matter what when the bat is ready which may be a single season? I’d say yes.
Projection is nice, but I prefer to take the facts which are right in front of my face and make the best recommendations I can based on them. Could he be a valuable big leaguer even if he does not stick at catcher, sure! However, a 20-25 HR first baseman is average or below and not a true fantasy baseball keeper.
Mike Newman
baseballhandyman.com
by Baseball Handyman on Dec 13, 2008 8:10 PM EST reply actions
a 20-25 hr 1b
who also walks 80 times with a decent average is above average.
He introduced it with something about his buddy's fantasy league
But he never mentions it again. It’s not “Here’s why Flowers won’t be good in fantasy”, it’s all “here’s why Flowers won’t be good” (paraphrasing).
you just again screwed up your logic
you said 20-25 HR first baseman is not…that’s not his ceiling, his ceiling is a 25-30 HR catcher with excellent plate discipline, maybe even better, if you had to take a guess a 20-25 HR 1st baseman might be more likely, but you are putting him down like he can’t be better and his value as a prospect is depending on what he can become and how likely he is to be that, not just what you guess he would be and as they said a 20-25 homer 1st baseman with good plate discipline (if he keeps it) is going to be very good in the coming years where one or two guys hit 40 homers, if that
by IHateMitchMustain on Dec 14, 2008 12:07 PM EST up reply actions
Am I missing something?
Who’s been comparing him to Heyward? Flowers seems to me like a good prospect who could be a good major league hitter, and maybe an excellent one position-wise if he stays at catcher. I thought that was the consensus. Did that change so dramatically in the last few weeks?
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by OldProspects on Dec 14, 2008 2:15 PM EST up reply actions
No.
I think the premise of this post is, “My buddy got a huge boner over some AFL stats, and that’s silly.”
Flowers is the same prospect he was in August, and that’s a solid prospect but not an elite one.
Isn't that pretty logical?
Why are people getting so annoyed at him then?
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by OldProspects on Dec 14, 2008 3:15 PM EST up reply actions
Becuase this 70+ post thread could've been summed up in the two sentences in my last post
I’m not annoyed, I just think it’s a silly discussion.
You need further proof that he's a suspect?
than the fact that the Atlanta Braves traded him ? ;)
Just want to point out also that Flowers was already killing the ball before he went to Arizona:
August
.350 AVG
.470 OBP
.650 SLG
.300 ISOP <<<< Ludicrous
So his breakout wasn’t just in Arizona. He improved throughout the season and then carried that into a hitter friendly environment.
The easy comparison is to Max Ramirez in 2007
Though Flowers seems to be a touch better fielder. The big question, though, is that Max-Ram broke out seriously in 2008 and we don’t know yet if Flowers will do the same once he makes it to AA
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by OldProspects on Dec 14, 2008 4:11 PM EST up reply actions
good point
Flowers went on a huge tear. I don’t think anyone thinks the AFL stats will be repeated, but they highlight some pretty good numbers this year and the year end improvement. He looks like he is a pretty good hitter.
Fact that hanson also getting dissed is a little silly. First, AFL is a huge hitters league. And again, folks are not thinking he will k 15 guys per 9 in the majors. The AFL numbers just buttress a pretty good run in the minors this year.
Hanso is very good and Flowers is good, and since they were 20s and 50s in the community list, they don’t seem that overrated to me.
Disclosure: I have hanson in my fantasy league. I also have Alderson (among others on the list, chacin, holland and feliz) and i rank hanson above Alderson. And while hanson doesn’t have Feliz’s pure stuff, I’d say hanson at this stage seems a little more polished.
JOE MAUER 6' 5"
Kenny Williams does tend to overvalue AFL stats. However, it’s still very likely that Flowers will be a solid ML player for many years. His bat (average and power) and plate discipline almost clinch it.
He may stick at catcher and be decent enough behind the plate (ala A.J.) with the Sox having a defensive backup catcher while Flowers DH’s some. That could make him an All-Star catcher, certainly.
Or, he gets moved to 1B/DH and is no doubt less valuable. However, his offensive downside appears to be Pat Burrell – that’s not too shabby at the worst. The Sox will be happy with the move. He’ll be a good player.
This is really if things pan out
but if they can get away with having Beckham, Danks, and Flowers up the middle in a couple years, that’s getting some bang for your position offensively. Flowers would be the only one who is considered shaky at said position. I think the Sox have a good chance to maintain or possibly improve upon the offense they have been putting out on the field in recent years considering the ML-near/ready talent they have.
by Daniel Berlyn on Dec 15, 2008 8:05 PM EST up reply actions
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