Oakland Athletics Top 20+ Prospects for 2009
This is a deep system, but remember the lessons of history: Don't Get Arrogant
All grades are EXTREMELY PRELIMINARY and subject to change. Don’t get too worried about exact rankings at this point, especially once you get out of the top 10. Grade C+/C guys are pretty interchangeable depending on what you are looking for.
1) Trevor Cahill, RHP, Grade B+: Borderline A-. I like him an awful lot. Just needs to cut down on the walks a bit. Rate him just a tad higher than
2) Brett Anderson, LHP, Grade B+: Borderline A-. Very close to Cahill, stuff not quite as impressive but more polished.
3) Aaron Cunningham, OF, Grade B: A solid all-around player. Doesn’t have the ceiling of some of these other guys, but a surer bet to reach his.
4) Gio Gonzalez, LHP, Grade B. This may seem too high to some, but even in the majors he struck out a batter per inning. I still like him.
5) Adrian Cardenas, 2B, Grade B: I think he’s a second baseman. Equivalent to a college junior entering 2009.
6) Chris Carter, 1B, Grade B: Enormous power, but defensive questions and spike in strikeout rate prevent a B+.
7) Jemile Weeks, 2B, Grade B. I like him a lot due to across-the-board skills, but I worry that he may be injury-prone like his brother, hampering his development.
8) Sean Doolittle, 1B, Grade B: I think he’ll emerge as a .270-.290 hitter with a solid OBP, 15-20 homers, and excellent defense.
9) Michael Inoa, RHP, Grade B-: Very hard to grade. Terrific scouting reports, projection, and youth stand out, but no track record and high attrition rate of young pitchers are big dangers.
10) Vin Mazzaro, RHP, Grade B-: I don’t know what to make of him. Everyone seems to be focusing on what he did at
11) James Simmons, RHP, Grade B-: Excellent command, but hittable. Stuff may be a bit short to get beyond being a fourth starter.
12) Henry Rodriguez, RHP, Grade B-: Opposite of Simmons: blistering stuff but big command problems.
13) Josh Outman, LHP, Grade B-: Remains a personal favorite for me and I think he is underrated by others. Could be solid fourth starter or a very good reliever. Sort of a pitching equivalent of Cunningham: doesn’t have the ceiling of some others, but a surer bet.
14) Brett Hunter, RHP, Grade B-: Huge upside here, but command and health are issues until we get a bigger track record.
15) Andrew Carignan, RHP, Grade B-: Could help quite soon in relief.
16) Corey Brown, OF, Grade C+: Huge upside, but strikeout issues are a problem.
17) Andrew Bailey, RHP, Grade C+: I still like him. Could help very soon in the bullpen.
18) Tyson Ross, RHP, Grade C+: I think he’s an injury risk, but the upside is here.
19) John Donaldson, C, Grade C+: I think he’ll hit, but the glove looks like a problem.
20) Fautino De Los Santos, RHP, Grade C+: Enormous upside, but have to see how things look after Tommy John. I’m conservative about that.
21) Sam Demel, RHP, Grade C+: Love the strikeouts, command could wobble in Double-A.
22) Rashun Dixon, OF, Grade C+: Another enormous upside guy with question marks.
23) Jason Christian, SS, Grade C+: I thought he was a steal in the draft. Worried some about strikeout rate, like tools and other skills.
24)
25) Jesus Guzman, 3B, Grade C+: Nice pickup as a minor league free agent. Still young enough to be interesting sleeper.
26) Petey Paramore, C, Grade C+: Great glove, lots of walks, doubts about rest of bat.
Others: Jeremy Barfield, OF; Dusty Coleman, SS; Pedro Figueroa, LHP; Craig Italiano, RHP; Jared Lansford, RHP; Nino Leyja, SS; Cliff Pennington, SS; Landon Powell, C; Danny Putnam, OF; Anthony Recker, C; Matt Spencer, OF; Matt Sulentic, OF; Daniel Thomas, RHP.
If there is someone else that you really think should be included, make your case. I always miss someone. Space is limited and some of the players above will probably get cut if I have to add someone else.
SYSTEM IN BRIEF:
This system has a huge amount of depth now, but other than Anderson and Cahill even the potential impact guys have a few doubts about them. I opted for a conservative approach on a lot of these grades. Inoa was a tough grade, but decided to approach him like a high-upside high school kid entering his draft year. He could be literally anything from Juan Marichal to a guy who shreds his shoulder in rookie ball and is never heard from again.
I expect complaints about ranking Outman ahead of guys like Hunter and De Los Santos, and perhaps I just like him so much because I’ve been tracking him since college, but I’m going with my gut on that one. Certainly some of the guys behind him have higher upsides, so adjust your own ranking accordingly depending on what you like yourself.
Overall, this system has dramatically improved over the last couple of years thanks to aggressive trades and impressive drafting. I like how they have mixed polished talent and upside guys in recent drafts.
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177 comments
Comments
Oh my...
I have a feeling this thread is going to blow up and Armageddon may ensue.
by jfish26101 on Dec 12, 2008 12:27 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Cool!
TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems
by OldProspects on Dec 12, 2008 12:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
fight
if it drives traffic I’m good with that, lol
by John Sickels on Dec 12, 2008 12:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
+1
Am I the only one who avoids threads devoted to A’s players? If I don’t read it early, I won’t read them at all.
"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile
by Boxkutter on Dec 12, 2008 12:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yup
looks like your the only one. I laugh at people who single out any teams fanbase. If you don’t like a comment, or think someone is over the top then try this cool thing called “ignoring” it. I’ll admit there are some A’s fans who can be over the top, fortunately i’ve seen this type of behavior from many other teams fans as well and in many cases just as bad, if not worse. A’s fans catch a bad rep on this site and it would be nice if people would, well, get over it. There are a lot of friendly, baseball intelligent A’s fans who just like to talk about the game. Save the negativity, because that makes you just as irritating and ignorant as asshole fans.
by JPShark on Dec 12, 2008 10:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
He just said he IS "ignoring it"...
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Dec 12, 2008 11:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
There's a fine line between not listening, and not caring.
I like to think I walk that line every day of my life.
facepalm.jpg
by Zonis on Dec 13, 2008 2:53 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
What
I meant was there is nothing wrong with disliking what certain fans have to say, but to group them together and disregard entire threads because of it sounds a little petty. My suggestion was simply that he “ignore” posts that he finds irritating for whatever reason and read/respond to posts from A’s fans (or other fans) who actually have something to add to the topic. I don’t like it automatically being assumed that I am going to blow a topic up because I am an A’s fan. I feel like I know my fair share and love discussing the A’s and baseball in general so why should I be grouped with a handfull of fans who might come on this site and make ass’s out of themselves.
by JPShark on Dec 14, 2008 1:42 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
+ a lot
"I'm on hold for now"- Bobby Crosby
by DyeLongJustice on Dec 14, 2008 11:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Henry Rodriguez
Still a favorite of mine. Even if he doesn’t get his control issues completely taken care of, he’s a seventh or eighth inning guy. Just electric stuff.
by seabass on Dec 12, 2008 12:31 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Donaldson
I’m mildly curious how his glove was after going to Oakland, as I didn’t follow it all that much. I know early in the year, despite his struggles offensively at Peoria, there were indications that his receiving skills had improved quite a bit, enough to potentially project him sticking at catcher if his offense came around. Did it regress in Oakland?
And much as I am a UVA fan, I’m not sure I buy a “.270-.290 hitter with a solid OBP, 15-20 homers, and excellent defense” first baseman as a B grade, but I’m sure PT will disagree (based on the discussion in one of the community prospect list discussions).
by toonsterwu on Dec 12, 2008 12:37 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
The Doolittle projection...
sounds like a slightly more HR power, but less BA version of Mark Grace. If someone can be Mark Grace, they are a B+ prospect at worst (Grace did have more hits than anyone else in the 90s). Of course, that is likely Doolittle’s ceiling, which in all likelihood he won’t reach. I still like him as a prospect though.
"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile
by Boxkutter on Dec 12, 2008 12:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
the guy that i thought of
was lyle overbay, who posted a .270/.358/.419 line last year with 15 homers. i don’t know if i would call an overbay projection a b unless the guy was definitely ready this upcoming season, but that’s me.
now, if he is grace level, sure, then i buy the b.
by toonsterwu on Dec 12, 2008 1:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That's who I thought of too.
"So's your mom"-David Sloane
by gatling on Dec 12, 2008 1:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Shout out to the Babe Ruth of NFLDC.
Toonster, are you seriously going to throw your UVA guy under the bus like that? tsk, tsk…
Haha, I’m just playin’.
In all seriousness, I like the tools that Doolittle has. I got to see him a few times and I think that his numbers in Midland were an aberration. He came back to have a GREAT AFL season where he was one of the younger players if I recall. Doolittle had 200 bad ABs sandwiched by a total of 450 very good ABs. I think that he at least deserves the time to see he potential. Remember this was his very first full season as a pro and his first full season as a batter. He’s working on adding more weight to add more power—again the first time he has the chance to do this because of being a pitcher with UVA. As far as his tools, he has very good speed for a 1B (speed that plays very well for RF) as well as a good arm and that stellar glove that everyone talks about. I could easily see him rounding out into a .290 hitter with more than a few HRs in the majors. As we see him get more seasoned as a hitter, I think we’ll see the hitting continue to stabilize.
by nobodyinparticular on Dec 12, 2008 2:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Jesus Guzman
There were reports in late November that Guzman signed a minor league free agent contract with San Francisco. It never was confirmed at the time, and I don’t know if it has been since been confirmed or not.
by jibs on Dec 12, 2008 12:40 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Signed by Giants and on their roster
Charlie Brown GO A'S WIN
by Charlie Brown on Dec 12, 2008 1:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Which roster?
MiLB has him on Midland’s roster.
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on Dec 12, 2008 1:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
BA has him on the Giants
As a Rule 5 eligible.
by Danny on Dec 12, 2008 1:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I totally forgot he was Rule 5 eligible
How was he not taken yesterday?
by jibs on Dec 12, 2008 4:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Shit, he'd have made more sense than Ben Copeland for the A's!
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Dec 12, 2008 4:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The Four Aces... not good times
I’ll admit, I’m surprised one of Anderson/Cahill didn’t earn an A-. That seems over conservative to me. Personally, I like what Anderson did in the Olympics and for the River Cats in the AAA play-offs. I respectfully submit that he deserves an A- and the top ranking in the A’s system.
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on Dec 12, 2008 12:42 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I'm surprised...
there aren’t three A’s and 10 B+’s here, if the community prospect list is to be believed.
by DrunkIrish on Dec 12, 2008 2:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Either you're trying
to start a flame war, or you don’t know really understand the grading system. Either way, it’s not really called for.
"So's your mom"-David Sloane
by gatling on Dec 12, 2008 2:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think both should have earned A-s
They’re going to be consensus top 20 prospects. Unless the prospect class is unbelievably weak this year, it’s hard to believe there aren’t at least that many grades of A or A-.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Dec 12, 2008 3:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Nice Job
I very much agree with most of these grades/rankings.
Anderson/Cahill are studs; I like Anderson a bit better.
After that, there’s just tremendous depth in “B” prospects.
by acerimusdux on Dec 12, 2008 12:44 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I don't get the Carignan love
If you’re worried about Demel’s command…
Is Christian considered a better fielder than Coleman?
by Danny on Dec 12, 2008 1:06 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I think
Christian has better range, but has had error problems. I really like Christian. He’s athletic, he hit well in his first stop (I like the doubles), has good plate discipline, and has the tools to be a good shortstop.
by Josh Deletchi on Dec 12, 2008 1:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
thing is
Demel gets into more trouble due to his command issues. He loses pitches in the middle of the zone far more often than Carignan does, and thus has innings where he is hit hard. I like Carignan much better than Demel at this point.
by jakarta on Dec 12, 2008 2:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Hm, sounds like rationalization of luck to me
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Dec 12, 2008 3:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Or it could be
That Carignan lives on the edges of the plate and continually misses outside of the zone, instead of missing within the zone. I really have no idea, having never seen him, but his numbers seem to support that he is pretty good at pitching around danger areas.
by ajake57 on Dec 12, 2008 7:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Nice job on the rankings
There isn’t much I disagree with, although I like Leon better than the relievers who have injury concerns
by Josh Deletchi on Dec 12, 2008 1:20 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I don't see
anything to quibble with on this. Looks great John. I’d still love to see a prospect retro on The Four Aces or Generation K one day.
"So's your mom"-David Sloane
by gatling on Dec 12, 2008 1:23 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
+1 on the 4 Aces
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on Dec 12, 2008 1:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Thoughts
I think both Cahill and Anderson deserve A- grades. I would probably put Carter, Gio, Cunningham and Cardenas as B+ but they all have enough question marks to justify a B grade. I think Josh Donaldson is underrated a tad and would think his bat would justify a B- grade.
by DeJay on Dec 12, 2008 1:28 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Disagree
There is alot of talent in the system, but we don’t have 6 guys that are B+ or better. Donaldson’s bat could only warrant a B- grade if can stick at catcher. It’s not likely to much better than average anywhere else.
"So's your mom"-David Sloane
by gatling on Dec 12, 2008 1:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Bat and glove
You state that if Donaldson sticks at catcher, he’s a B-. I think that if he’s a catcher, his offense makes him one of the better hitting catchers in the league. That is worth more than a B- grade. I do think that it would be warranted to give him a B- at this point because he has a great bat yet there is a lack of surety about his ability to stick at catcher. It is a discount of that B grade he would receive as a catcher with solid defense, but a bump up from the C+ he should receive as a 3B with average offense and above average defense. This is because he still has a shot at making at catcher, but the likelihood is not 100%.
by nobodyinparticular on Dec 12, 2008 2:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe
Have there been actual reports that he’d be above average defensively at 3B? Without that, I’m not going to project him to be any more than average there. There’s probably an equal chance he ends up a CO or 1B/DH if he can’t catch, so that has to be weighed into it as well.
"So's your mom"-David Sloane
by gatling on Dec 12, 2008 2:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Reports
I do remember hearing that he was sporting good defense at third base. I can’t tell you where I read it (it was published, not just hearsay) though.
by nobodyinparticular on Dec 12, 2008 3:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Donaldson's D has to improve to stick at C
Twice I saw Demel throw his sinker for a swinging K that should have saved the game, but Donaldson couldn’t glove it, allowing the batter on, and the inning to continue. Donaldson can sure hit, though. He should play somewhere.
by redtopcowboy on Dec 12, 2008 2:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Donaldson
Thanks for the update – I’d heard that his defense was nothing special but thought he would be able to stick at catcher. Hopefully he can because while his bat is a plus at C, if he had to move to 3B it would probably only be average, so he would lose alot of his value if he can’t stick at C.
by DeJay on Dec 12, 2008 2:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Simmons
is too low for me.
He has better stuff than that from every report Ive read. Just because a guy doesnt have “Ace” stuff doesnt mean he has back end stuff.
by alskor on Dec 12, 2008 1:29 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Agreed
And I’m not as concerned about him being too hittable. Yes, he gave up a .343 in Midland, but Midland gave up a .323 BABIP as a team. Even Anderson had a .324 BABIP, and then there’s Henry Rodriguez’s .400 BABIP.
by Danny on Dec 12, 2008 1:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
150 Hits in 136 IP isnt all that hittable. It aint great, but its not a huge question mark considering he went from college straight to AA. He’s only 21 years old.
If Simmons is “too hittable” at does that make “top prospect” Nick Adenhart and his 173 Hits in 145 IP?
by alskor on Dec 12, 2008 2:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Depends on the context
League, park, defense…
by Danny on Dec 12, 2008 2:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I guess
But I went to minorleaguesplits.com and neutralized his stats for his park, and it changed from 150 hits to 149. Did the Rockhounds have an especially crappy defensive team or something?
by aCone419 on Dec 12, 2008 2:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
As I said above...
They allowed a .324 BABIP as a team. And the team had a pretty high percentage of its innings thrown by real prospects, so it’s not as if they just had a bunch of chumps getting lit up.
by Danny on Dec 12, 2008 2:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Possible
That BABIP doesn’t automatically mean crappy defense, though that would certainly be one possibility.
I don’t suppose you know what the average BABIP for the Texas league is? I don’t know where to find that. The RockHounds did have a marginally low DER (.640 vs. .646 LgAvg; pretty close), but that’s not amazingly reliable stat, especially for the minor leagues.
by aCone419 on Dec 12, 2008 3:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
BB-Ref has it.
Link (you have to scroll down to the teams).
The BABIP for the Texas League was .315 (a bit lower if you exclude Midland).
by Danny on Dec 12, 2008 3:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Cool.
I thought it was around there someplace, but I couldn’t locate it for some reason.
So it was a little high, but not outrageously so. The defense doesn’t seem to be uniformly inflating BABIPs though. Cahill: .237, Mazzaro: .281
by aCone419 on Dec 12, 2008 4:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Sure, BABIP has a lot of random variation
I’m just saying Simmons’ high BABIP is less of a concern given the environment he played in.
And Mazzaro’s BABIP will go up. GBs become hits more often than FBs, and he’s a GB machine.
by Danny on Dec 12, 2008 4:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
BABIP
The concern isn’t exactly over his BABIP. Anderson had a somewhat high BABIP in Midland, but his h/9 was still below 8. Over two years in AA, Simmons has a h/9 over 10/9. Which is odd for a flyball pitcher.
by aCone419 on Dec 12, 2008 4:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
It's very much the same thing
If Simmons didn’t have a high BABIP, he wouldn’t have a high H/9 and no one would think of him as being hittable. His K rate is just fine.
by Danny on Dec 12, 2008 4:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Meh
Dude is hittable because he gives up lots of hits. He needs to show that he’s not going to continue doing so, seeing as he’s done it for the totality of his professional career thus far. This is all just semantics. Maybe he is just a pitcher with high BABIP as a trait, a la Ian Snell or Andy Pettite or Jon Lieber… or maybe he gives up too many hits to be successful.
by aCone419 on Dec 12, 2008 5:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Or maybe it's a coincidence and means absolutely nothing
You’re forgetting that option.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Dec 12, 2008 6:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
BA on carter
they mentioned he showed solid defense at 1b, so if thats his position does that affect his upside?
He showed good athleticism and the potential to be a solid to above-average defender at first base.
by Asfan4ever723 on Dec 12, 2008 1:34 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
He was terrible at first base.....
He had 42 errors in 182 games at first in his career. Do you have a link where BA mentions his solid defense at first?
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Dec 12, 2008 2:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
It's not in their Oakland Top 10 or CAL Top 20 lists
In both articles, they say Carter doesn’t have the hands to play 1B and is likely headed to DH.
by Danny on Dec 12, 2008 3:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
It's from the HWL top 20 list
It was just a quick mention, I think from one of the other coaches, saying that he was more athletic than they thought and that there was the potential there to get better.
by DiegoAsFan on Dec 12, 2008 5:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
But his errors at 3B aren't horrible. His range may be, but he does catch the ball mostly.
I think just the fact that he’s managed to play there at all suggests that he’d be a better OF than Cust.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 12, 2008 9:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Carter in RF
I’m no pro scout, but I would say that Carter could certainly be serviceable in RF. I don’t feel that he’s as bad as say Jack Cust or Pat Burrell when it comes to playing in the OF, and that’s when he’s 21 and just learning the position.
That said, I still have hope that he is able to stick at 3B and up that contact rate. That would be sweet to have a right-handed hitting 3B with 40+ HRs. But that’s a fool’s hope.
by nobodyinparticular on Dec 12, 2008 10:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
They are horrible
He has an .846 career fielding percentage in 41 games at third.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Dec 12, 2008 10:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Reports were he looked good over there at the end of the year and the A’s player development people were impressed. Goldstein mentioned it in a chat and I posted it in a couple threads here. He was learning the position.
by alskor on Dec 13, 2008 12:07 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Your standards are too high for Carter
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 13, 2008 2:33 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I've heard that Carter looks alright in RF. They say he has the arm for 3rd, but not quite enough range.
Never, Never, NEVER give up
by hero66 on Dec 13, 2008 12:20 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
If he hits the way he potentially could
I think the A’s would settle for limited range at third as long as he can cut down on the errors.
by thejd44 on Dec 13, 2008 2:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Question
Is it fair to say Simmons has an upside of Andy Sonnastine?
by demondeaconsbaseball on Dec 12, 2008 1:54 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
No
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Dec 12, 2008 3:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
In that case
What is his upside? He sounds to be a lot like Sonnastine, which is where the original comp came from.
by demondeaconsbaseball on Dec 12, 2008 3:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
He really isn't like Sonnanstine at all
The only thing they have in common is great command. Sonnanstine compares a lot better to Justin Duchscherer, among A’s players.
He compares pretty well to Brad Radke. Or Kevin Slowey. Or Carlos Silva, before he started sucking. Or Matt Guerrier as a starter. Hm. Just pick a random Twins pitcher from this decade and he probably compares to them. Low-90s fastball, at least some kind of plus offspeed offering (changeup for Simmons) and very few walks.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Dec 12, 2008 4:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Johan Santana? Fransisco Liriano?
Just kidding.
That says something about the depth of the system. I suppose his upside would be Slowey out of that group with downside being Silva/not making the majors, which is pretty good for your #11 prospect.
by demondeaconsbaseball on Dec 12, 2008 5:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The Number
of Twins pitching prospects compared to Radke must be in the hundreds by now.
1941 .406
by FrozenTed9 on Dec 12, 2008 8:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Shrug
1. He’s not a Twins pitching prospect, and
2. the reason for that repetition is that the Twins keep drafting Radke-like pitchers.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Dec 12, 2008 9:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I know
I was just making a remark.
1941 .406
by FrozenTed9 on Dec 12, 2008 9:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Very nice list for a deep system
Just a couple of quibbles. First, I would downgrade Carter to a C+/B-, I really think he has major issues making contact that will severely impair any progress at AA or above. Second, I see Cardenas more as a B- due to his minor league numbers hinting at a very limited offensive potential.
by tdot mariner fan on Dec 12, 2008 2:17 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Cardenas
Second, I see Cardenas more as a B- due to his minor league numbers hinting at a very limited offensive potential.
I think they only hint that way if you ignore his age. Compare him to someone like Jason Donald, who you seem to be a fan of. Donald was 21 in the NYP league and 22 in the SAL/FSL. Cardenas was just 20 last year, and he played in the FSL/CAL/TEX.
So while Donald’s .300/.386/.491 line in the FSL looks better than Cardenas’ .307/.371/.441, you have to take into account that Donald was 2 years older. Cardenas would have to spend the next 3 years in AA to put himself on the Donald development track.
Cardenas has been one of the youngest players in his league at every stop, which suggests his offensive potential is better than his raw numbers indicate.
by Danny on Dec 12, 2008 2:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Your right in his FSL numbers being interesting
It is not really a league that favours hitters so it is good that he hit well there. I am concerned about his post trade numbers where he struggled to hit for any power really and had his SB completely dissapear. His youth is too his advantage, but I am more conservative in ranking prospects with ARL to their advantage. I have more of a wait and see atittude for Cardenas. His 2007 XB numbers hint at future power growth, but his 2008 did nothing to reinforce that. If he was not young, he would only be a C+ for me, but youth puts him higher.
by tdot mariner fan on Dec 12, 2008 3:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
He also was playing all over the infield for the A's
And I know some people don’t believe that playing new positions has much of an effect on offense, but it’s very possible that he was held back from running so much and his practice time was dedicated more to infield work than batting practice. It’s all conjecture on my part, but it’s reasonable.
by thejd44 on Dec 12, 2008 6:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Or there's my theory
which is that he was hiding a wrist injury.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Dec 12, 2008 6:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Major issues?
I’ve said time and time again, once his BABIP normalizes, he should be more of a .275-.280 hitter. As his previous minor league #‘s show, he simply isnt that bad at making contact. I also like the fact that multiple people have said he’s very good at making adjustments to help his game, that’s huge IMO.
Never, Never, NEVER give up
by hero66 on Dec 13, 2008 12:23 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Outman
Will Outman ever get a chance to start for Oakland or will he wind up in the pen or get shipped out?
by The Colonel on Dec 12, 2008 2:57 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I'd imagine he's in the conversation for a starting job this year
Lots of competition among guys like Gallagher, Gio, etc. but not a lot of sure things for the rotation outside of Duchscherer and maybe Eveland.
by thejd44 on Dec 12, 2008 3:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Chris Carter
I think that you handled the grading of Chris Carter well. I don’t think that any higher grade was warranted, and it’s hard to say that a guy who hit so many HRs is a B- or lower.
On the topic of his defense, I feel that he has a ton of room to improve. When I watched him play, he looked like a high schooler who was still getting used to his height. This “loppiness” contributed to his bad defense more than anything. I would say that the 6’4" listing on MiLB.com is a conservative measurement as he looked a good 2 inches taller than 6’3" Sean Doolittle. At 21 years old for the entire season, I don’t think it’s unreasonable to think that he only recently stopped growing and as a result I don’t think it’s unreasonable to think that his defense will improve dramatically as he gets used to his longer limbs.
by nobodyinparticular on Dec 12, 2008 3:02 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I've only seen a couple highlights of Carter
But he seems to be big and athletic, and not a big, lumbering slugger. If that’s the case, if he works at it he should at least become a passable corner IF (maybe third is too much to hope for, I dunno). It’s rare to find a good athlete who works hard at defense who is still terrible at it.
by thejd44 on Dec 12, 2008 3:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Lumbering vs. Loppy
Yes, Carter is absolutely not a guy you see lumbering along (ala Matt Stairs or Jeremy Giambi). Right now he just seems uncoordinated due to getting used to the length of his limbs. He has a very athletic body and I believe he will be able to become a much better fielder in time.
by nobodyinparticular on Dec 12, 2008 4:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Sickles A/A- so far
Weiters
Price
Lars Andersson
Heyward
Snider
Moustakas
Hosmer
by Asfan4ever723 on Dec 12, 2008 3:41 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I would rather have either Cahill or Anderson than half of those guys
I would rather have either over Lars, Snider, Moustakas, Hosmer. If they aren’t earning A-s this year this year is has to be really quite short on As. I think that concensus is that Cahill is a top ten prospect and there are already 7 other As up on the board and a lot more teams to do.
Some of the most violent things I’ve ever seen were at Raiders games. And I’ve been to jail. - leopold bloom
by designatedforassignment on Dec 12, 2008 3:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm with you on this one
This was an odd system to go conservative on, seeing as how a lot of prospects with question marks have been getting love so far. If Cahill in particular isn’t an A- then there are only five or six A/A- guys in the minors, which I don’t think is accurate. I’d probably bump Carter higher too. 40 homers is 40 homers is 40 homers is 40 homers, particularly for a 21-year old. If he did not a single other thing well he would still be a valuable player.
by jdr on Dec 12, 2008 4:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
B+ prospects so far
Gamel, Cecil, Alonso, Bowden, Vitters, Zimmerman, Burgess, Tillman, Matusz, Arrieta, Parker, Davis, Hellickson, Beckham, Freeman, Hansen, Schafer, Revere and Hicks.
I’d take Cahill above all of those and Anderson above most.
by DeJay on Dec 12, 2008 5:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Especially the 1b guys like Lars and Hosmer
I don’t think that 1b prospects are as valuable… unless you are going to wind up being tex. The ability to find an adequate MLB replacement makes them less valuable, where as good pitching is quite hard to uncover.
Some of the most violent things I’ve ever seen were at Raiders games. And I’ve been to jail. - leopold bloom
by designatedforassignment on Dec 12, 2008 6:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
John has said his pitching grades cant be compared to his position player grades.
So A/A- so far to compate to Cahill & Anderson:
Price
by alskor on Dec 12, 2008 10:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Bowden=B+
How does everyone feel about Cahill and Anderson being considered marginally better than Michael Bowden? He was listed as a B+ while both Cahill and Anderson are listed as “borderline A-?”
by nobodyinparticular on Dec 12, 2008 10:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think Bowden is a legit B+
I think Cahill and Anderson are probably A-s.
Bowden was pretty awesome this year:
by alskor on Dec 13, 2008 12:05 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Bowden
I think it’s a travishamockery. Bowden is way better.
by rwperu34 on Dec 13, 2008 1:32 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
For the sake of human progress, I hope you're kidding
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Dec 13, 2008 1:48 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Quibbles
1. Anderson and Cahill should be A-’s. Already touched on this one.
2. I think the DLS grade is a bit low but it’s not inconsistent with what McGee got, I guess.
3. Leon’s not a reliever, he only plays one on TV. Seriously, from what I understand he’s moving to the rotation next season now that his Mexican League contract is over. We don’t know what kinds of funky time-share arrangements the A’s had to agree on to buy him from his prior club.
4. I know John’s not a big fan of Gregorio Petit but… worse than Jeremy Barfield? A late-round pick, not paid overslot, who performed poorly in short-season ball? Ouch. Can’t agree with that one.
5. Ronny Morla. Learn it, live it, love it. His stats are easy to miss b/c his ERA was poor this season, but Vancouver was a bad team this season. His K rate and K/BB ratio have been really solid and he’s still only 20.
Overall, good list, like it better than the BA list for sure.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Dec 12, 2008 3:51 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Quibbles with your quibbles
1. No quibbles. I also think Anderson should be ahead of Cahill, though I wouldn’t actually argue that point.
2. I think DLS is fine where he is because of the TJ. The reasons I am not high on him anymore: 2009 (23) is basically a lost season in terms of development. It’s all about getting back into form. My only hope for this coming season is that he stays healthy. In 2010 he’ll be 24 and probably at AA. If he returns to form, he could be fast-tracked. If he struggles, he’ll be at least 25 before getting his shot in the majors. He might not get there till he’s 26. For me, he’s not longer a young stud pitcher like Cahill or Anderson, but a slow-and-steady prospect who may or may not make it.
3. I agree with you, but do we know if Leon can actually hack it as a starter? We know the A’s plan to try, but will it work. Because it’s my nature, I remain skeptical but willing to have my mind changed on him.
4. No quibbles (I do like the word quibble a lot).
5. Why can I find nothing on Moria on the Baseball Cube? Are they still upgrading or whatever? Ugh, this is NOT the time to make finding prospects stats difficult.
by thejd44 on Dec 12, 2008 6:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
#5
Probably because you’re misspelling his name. M-o-r-L-a.
I think both DLS and Corey Brown are borderline B-/C+ types that I’d incline toward bumping up because of upside. ARL is less of a worry, to me, when you know the guy has major league tools.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Dec 12, 2008 6:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Ks
I know that Brown has major tools across the board—BIG power and good speed and defense, but those Ks are killer. Those Ks are enough to turn him into Richie Robnett who may never see the light of a major league baseball diamond. He has tools galore, but until he learns to not strikeout, he’s not going to make it to the majors.
by nobodyinparticular on Dec 12, 2008 6:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Shrug
The precedent (Cody Ross, Chris Young) is out there for guys of his ilk to work out in the majors.
I’m not saying that he’s the next Mays, just that IMO there’s enough there to keep him out of the C range.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Dec 12, 2008 9:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Brown vs. Young
Young struck out a lot in the minors, but not at the same rate as Brown. Look at it. In Brown’s first 1 1/2 seasons as a pro these are his stats. He has 724 ABs, 249 strikeouts for a rate of 2.91 Ks per AB. That’s a strikeout every 3 times he comes to the plate and then some.
Chris Young on the other hand, in his first 728 ABs had only 154 Ks (almost a full 100 fewer) for a rate of 4.73 K/AB. Now that was all in rookie ball, so let’s look at the slightly more comparable levels.
In Carter’s next 933 ABs (between A-ball and AA-ball at ages 20 and 21), he had 275 Ks for a rate of 3.39 K/AB. That is more comparable to Brown, but Young was a year younger at each level and had 467 ABs at a higher level than Brown has ever been.
The real key is that Young really cut down his K-rate before he broke into the minors in 2006. In 406 ABs as a 22 year old in AAA, he struck out 71 times. That was a rate of 5.67 K/AB.
I’m not saying that Corey Brown is doomed for failure. I actually really like his tools. I would love to see him come up and be a Matt Holliday-like OF in a couple years, but I think that, in order to do that, he will need to improve. This was his first full season in the pros, he’s only 22, he has the opportunity to do that, for sure. But I think that we cannot count on that improvement from him.
by nobodyinparticular on Dec 12, 2008 10:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Wow
Brown managed to strike out 2.91 times per at bat? That is quiet impressive no matter which way you look at it! :)
by DeJay on Dec 13, 2008 5:32 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Jemile Weeks
I think Weeks is being underrated by the overall sentiment. He is a middle-of-the-diamond defender who switch hits. He’s going to get on base and going to steal bases. He’s also going to move very quickly through the system and I would only be mildly surprised to see him reach Triple-A in 2009. There is very little data on Weeks now, but what’s his upside? Ray Durham with more walks?
by richieabernathy on Dec 12, 2008 5:28 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
If Weeks' upside is better than Ray Durham
He’s a top 3 prospect in the system. Durham is a multiple time All Star who twice hit 20 homers in a season. He’s walked fewer than 50 times in a season just twice. Durham has been a really, really good player (hitter) for more than a decade. Jemile Weeks will not have the career of Ray Durham.
by thejd44 on Dec 12, 2008 6:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Weeks
I wouldn’t use the words “will not” in that comparison. It’s really not a bad comp – Weeks has very good plate discipline and a leadoff hitter’s mentality. The biggest difference is that Weeks hasn’t shown that kind of pop and probably won’t. But as a high-end upside, Ray Durham seems reasonable, as it assumes that Weeks will be able to solve his biggest flaw in his power stroke.
by mrkupe on Dec 12, 2008 7:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Nice list
I really like the rankings for Gio and Weeks, two guys who I really like that I think get a bit dinged a bit too much for rough stretch in MLB and lack of pro track record respectively.
Hunter and Doolittle were higher than I expected and I still think I would take a grade lower for now on these guys.
Surprised that Donaldson was so far down but I can buy a C+ for him.
I agree with the idea that Petit could be added somewhere. If your going to talk about Pennington I think Petit should be in the same conversation. Both likely to be utility guys in the majors with a small chance to be something more. There should be room for him once Guzman comes off.
by DiegoAsFan on Dec 12, 2008 6:37 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
The Doolittle ranking
is right on with what I think. I have watched this guy play at least 20-30 times and he can flat out hit. His swing is picture perfect, and his defense is solid.. My prediction is that he pushes Barton out of Oakland someday
by son of wes on Dec 12, 2008 7:08 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I'm impressed that a Top 20 has 26 graded players.
Italiano seems better than a C. I’d rather see a write-up or Rosario than Barfield….unless there’s something about Barfield I’m missing of course.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 12, 2008 7:28 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I'm not an Italiano believer
Or, at least I need to see more than 70 good/great (too many walks) innings at Low-A.
by jdr on Dec 12, 2008 7:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Sure, but is he any worse than a A+ or AA reliever?
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 12, 2008 9:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Well, he's going to be a reliever at some point
May as well grade him based on that.
by thejd44 on Dec 13, 2008 12:00 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Right but his numbers to date need to be ratcheted accordingly
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 13, 2008 2:35 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Anderson
I’ve been thinking on this one and I think I’ve decided that Anderson slightly edges out Cahill. As much as I like Cahill and I think his raw stuff is stronger (and mildly underrated), Anderson just does everything that you could possibly want out of a young pitcher. Great control, keeps the ball on the ground, multiple good pitches, very respectable fastball velocity. The numbers are awesome, but the guy’s repertoire is not that of a finesse pitcher – a lot of those raw guys with upside that people like to talk up with they had stuff like him.
I like A- on him. I honestly think this guy is one of the best prospects in baseball.
by mrkupe on Dec 12, 2008 7:32 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I agree on Anderson
For a while I liked Cahill better but as I have looked back at the season I started to sway towards Anderson. His numbers have been good, especially in his short stint in AA. Everybody knows about his good control, but reports are that his fastball has improved and BA rated his slider as the best in the A’s system. I could see Anderson starting the year in AAA while I thnk Cahill still has some work to do in AA. Both are great pitching propects but I would give Anderson the edge.
And as for the grade, I think I would go with an A- but that might be a little home team bias. It just seems that if Cahill and Anderson are B+ how good would a prospect have to be go get a straight A? Seems like a pretty tough scale to me.
by DiegoAsFan on Dec 13, 2008 2:58 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
So hard to say
He’s so young that he could be a bust, then revive his prospect standing, bust again, and then finally turn out as a mid-rotation starter.
Of course, if he was a No. 3 starter, that huge signing bonus would still be worth it.
by mrkupe on Dec 12, 2008 7:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
which is the benefit of signing him to a minor league deal
the A’s can take him quite slowly and he can even fail at probably two levels and be at a “normal” development track.
Some of the most violent things I’ve ever seen were at Raiders games. And I’ve been to jail. - leopold bloom
by designatedforassignment on Dec 12, 2008 8:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
If he was a #5 starter for 3 seasons, the signing bonus would be worth it...
Hard to overstate how cheap amateur talent is compared to buying it on the free agent market.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Dec 12, 2008 9:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I still dont get what's wrong with Anderson's stuff.
He has 3 plus pitches and can control them all very well.
Never, Never, NEVER give up
by hero66 on Dec 13, 2008 12:30 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Nothing is wrong with his stuff, no matter what anybody says.
People favor Cahill because while they both tore it up all year long, Cahill is more projectable and has a higher upside. I am in the camp that says Anderson is better than Cahill right now.
by NateHST on Dec 13, 2008 3:11 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Josh Horton ?
Solid bat -.277 .346 .331 – although no power but decent D at premium position.Isnt he worthy of some condideration ?? Maybe C+ ?
by frenchredsox on Dec 13, 2008 5:47 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
I don't think so
Horton’s a polished college guy with merely average defense at best. That batting line is pretty bad and unless he makes some sort of huge breakthrough Horton is pretty much a non-entitiy in this system.
by DiegoAsFan on Dec 13, 2008 3:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Gotta admit
Surprised there is not more discussion about Inoa, probably because he has no numbers etc. to look at, but the fact that Beane would sign him for so much money, and the scouting love hes getting from all major sources… this guy has once in a generation type profile, I think you have to put him at least up with Gio Gonzalez, simply based on potential, with a note that this is all projection at this point.
Check out my baseball analysis blog FANalytics
by jbluestone on Dec 13, 2008 9:46 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Problem with Inoa is..........
the thing about Inoa is his lack of stats but also his development curve – as such he has nothing.OK he is a 1 in a lifetime guy because of his velocity/body type but how Many actually do pan ? That is why John is being conservative & rightly so.Till he has pitched at A level or above then his rating cannot IMO be above B/B+
There is also the “secret” reason Linked to many Caribbean players which is ‘is he really’ 16 …. A LOT of these guys are really 1/2 years OLDER than they claim & that does affect directly/indirectly their value & potential (see Tejeda but also Santiago Casilla).
by frenchredsox on Dec 13, 2008 10:26 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Inoa is 16
There’s enough info out there about him that people are comfortable stating that.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Dec 13, 2008 1:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Even if he were 19 now
I don’t think that would really hurt his grade.
by thejd44 on Dec 13, 2008 2:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Injury risk is a big factor as well
Another factor in the Inoa ranking is the inherrent risk of injury for all young pitchers. As a 16, now 17, year old pitcher he has a lot of throws to put his arm through before he even sniffs the majors, when trying to rank him you have to take into account the chances that he suffers a major injury.
Not every pitcher has arm injuries but it is a risk that must be accounted for, and the farther away a pitcher is from pitching in MLB the higher that risk is.
by DiegoAsFan on Dec 13, 2008 4:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Durability concerns
Anderson & Cahill are certainly among the top few pitching prospects, but neither of them has thrown even 125 innings in a season yet.
Without some evidence of the ability to toss 30+ innings per month, month after month, I couldn’t rank either of them among the top 15-20 overall prospects.
Oakland’s system is really good, but because so much of its “elite” status hangs on Anderson/Cahill, I’d say it’s a little overrated right now. The Marlins & Cardinals each have a quartet of position prospects clearly superior to any position prospects of the Athletics, for instance.
by Mekonsrock on Dec 13, 2008 3:05 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Innings pitched
Including the Olympics and the AAA play-offs both pitchers threw more than 125 innings. And they did lose time by going off to train for Team USA. That shouldn’t be held against them.
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on Dec 13, 2008 3:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Name these quartets of position prospects
I call serious bullshit.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Dec 14, 2008 3:35 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I can think of two Cardinals off the top of my head but thats it
Wallace and Rasmus
facepalm.jpg
by Zonis on Dec 14, 2008 9:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Cameron Maybin...but i don't think i'd put him ahead of Cunningham
Rasmus is the only undeniable stud prospect that trumps all the A’s prospects
"I'm on hold for now"- Bobby Crosby
by DyeLongJustice on Dec 14, 2008 11:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Maybin, Coghlan
And if you’re a believer then Kyle Skipworth might also be a stronger prospect than Cunningham, and I don’t know who the 4th person he’s referring to. On the one hand, he’s obviously exxagerating that those teams have 4 players better than the best As position prospect, but it is certainly true that the As strength is not their top-tier hitting prospects. In terms of position player prospects, the As are solid, but certainly not significantly better than teams like the Marlins or the Cardinals. In terms of pitching prospects, if you believe (as I do) in Anderson, Cahill, Gio and Simmons, and like their young players, then they might have the best pitching system in the game.
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by OldProspects on Dec 15, 2008 10:59 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'd take Dominguez over Coghlan or Skipworth
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 15, 2008 12:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Really?
You’d take Cunningham over Maybin? I don’t think there is a quartet from the Cards that is better but I’d think Rasmus/Maybin are locks and Wallace probably is as well. Then there is Dominguez/Morrison/Stanton who I’d take over any A’s position prospect. I think the A’s have the better system though. I don’t see the Cards having a quartet better though.
by groundingout on Dec 18, 2008 12:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
grades
thinking about the whole Anderson/Cahill grade issue, I may end up going A- on both of them. However also thinking about reducing hosmer to B+ until we get more data. Moustakas….maybe also a b+.
by John Sickels on Dec 13, 2008 3:21 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Grades
To me, the problem with moving Cahill and Anderson to A- is, you have to move a slew of other similar pitchers there as well. I half jokingly said above that Bowden was way better than Cahill or Anderson. I can make a strong case for Bowden and about eight other guys with differing strong and weak points vs the A’s guys. This looks like a year for quantity on the pitching front. I can easily see David Price as a straight A and the #2 guy being a B+.
ANother issue is, if you move Anderson and Cahill to A-, you almost have to move Gio Gonzalez to B+ and Price to A+. The gap between Price/Anderhill is understated at A vs A- and the gap between Anderhill/Gonzalez is overstated at A- vs B.
by rwperu34 on Dec 13, 2008 4:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Both Anderson and Cahill had significantly better stats than Price at a younger age
I understand that stats aren’t everything, but that gap isn’t even close to as wide as you’re portraying it.
I’d love to hear this “strong case” for Bowden, but then I do take irrational pleasure in shredding inept arguments…
I don’t think there’s any justification whatsoever for stating that Gio has to be only one grade lower than those two. Certainly he was not ranked as such on the community prospect list.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Dec 14, 2008 3:45 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Not!
That assertion of Anderson/Cahill stats in comparison to Price is comical, not to mention completely false and an apples to oranges comparison.
by slurve on Dec 14, 2008 8:13 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Blind stat test!
Which one of these players is better?
A: 105 IP, 27 BB, 118 K
B: 123.2 IP, 36 BB, 121 K
C: 124 IP, 50 BB, 133 K
Your claim that my claim is completely false is… completely false.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Dec 14, 2008 2:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Fail
Price’s numbers are spread across FOUR…. 1-2-3-4 levels composed of a bunch of small sample sizes, two of those levels are AAA and MLB where both Anderson and Cahill have yet to pitch in the regular season. For as well as Anderson may have pitched in the AAA playoffs, Price more than trumped that with his post-season performance. Remember, there is more to life that K:BB ya cherry farmer…
I’ll use one of your other favorite stats, FIP…
Price: 3.19
Cahill: 3.26
Anderson: 3.23
Doesn’t look significantly better to me. Price also spent about 65 innings above A+ last year, quite a bit more than either of those other 2.
I to take irrational pleasure in shredding inept arguments…
by slurve on Dec 14, 2008 5:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Um, you are aware that as I type this, Price is 23
And Cahill and Anderson are both still 20, right?
The age difference (really 2 years, since Anderson and Cahill will both be 21 for next year, and Price won’t turn 24 till August) doesn’t matter at all to you, does it?
by thejd44 on Dec 15, 2008 3:35 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That wasn't the point
“Both Anderson and Cahill had significantly better stats than Price at a younger age” – Paul Thomas
Yeah – I’m well aware of all of their ages. As I also stated above – I’m well aware that Price pitched at AA and AAA for the bulk of his numbers, while most of Anderson and Cahill’s numbers were amassed in hi-A. I wasn’t the fanboy saying that Anderson and Cahill’s numbers were “significantly better,” I’m just the one who disproved it.
by slurve on Dec 15, 2008 6:12 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed
Cahill and Anderson are VERY good prospects, but lets not be crazy and put them in Price’s league.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Dec 16, 2008 3:16 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
FIP isn't one of my favorite stats
because it assumes that home run/fly ball rate is a skill. Which it is, sort of, but I’d rather assume it isn’t until a player actually shows it. I wish they’d give us xFIP instead, but I guess that’s what the luck-adjusted FIP is.
Doesn’t make much of a difference in this case, as it happens.
BTW, thanks for making my point that Anderson and Cahill are on par with Price…
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Dec 17, 2008 12:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You're such a joke
Keep wigglin’!!! Nice try Mr. Spin – three days and that’s the best you can come up with? You claimed those 2 were “significantly better” not that they were “on par” – which they’re not even that. Just walk away before you dig yourself deeper.
by slurve on Dec 18, 2008 1:39 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
It's likely no one will ever read this, but for the record
I said that Cahill and Anderson had significantly better stats— which, to me, they do. Better K rate, better K/BB in Anderson’s case, better age for what that’s worth. K rate is a better predictor than FIP of future MLB success— otherwise Carlos Hernandez would be the A’s top prospect.
When I say they are on par with Price, that’s talking about the whole package— stats, scouting reports, etc etc. I understand that nuanced opinions and careful phrasing go well beyond your pathetic powers of reading comprehension, but so be it— I’m not posting for your benefit.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Dec 19, 2008 6:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Royals
B+ for Hosmer. Scouting reports are really good, but I want to give him a full season of evaluation before deciding whether he’s a “very good” offensive talent or an “outstanding” one. At the positions he could play, it’s a big difference.
However, I think Moustakas is well worth an A-. Slow start to the year, but I’m willing to chalk it up to an adjustment to level of competition and the natural discomfort of a Cali kid in the Midwest league. His overall line ended up looking very nice and he’s got plenty of time to improve on that.
by mrkupe on Dec 13, 2008 8:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
who were the 4 aces on that baseball america?
I agree - Noonan is as valuable as a dead horse… and he too should be beaten by some dude in a top hat who looks like he’s holding his junk.
by cool hand Charlie on Dec 13, 2008 10:13 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Van Poppel, Dressendorfer, Peters, and Zancanaro I think.
facepalm.jpg
by Zonis on Dec 14, 2008 1:26 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
seems you nailed it, i found this after you gave me those names
Van Poppel was the first of four starting pitchers selected by the A’s in the first 36 picks of the 1990 draft, referred to at the time as “The Four Aces”. The other three draftees were Don Peters, Dave Zancanaro and Kirk Dressendorfer. All four struggled with injuries after being drafted, and only Van Poppel and Dressendorfer ever reached the major leagues.
I agree - Noonan is as valuable as a dead horse… and he too should be beaten by some dude in a top hat who looks like he’s holding his junk.
by cool hand Charlie on Dec 14, 2008 1:49 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You can look at the Mets group from the 90s, too (Wilson, Pulsipher, Isringhausen)
The difference here, I think, is that Cahill, Anderson, and Gonzalez are all pretty close to the majors or there. Sure, injuries can happen, but they’ve all made it past that A ball burn out thing.
Have any studies been done on what level/age pitching prospects tend to have their arms fall off? I feel like just getting to AAA healthy is a decent sign you won’t fall apart completely once you get to the majors.
by thejd44 on Dec 15, 2008 3:37 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Injury nexus
Have any studies been done on what level/age pitching prospects tend to have their arms fall off?
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=1658
by slurve on Dec 15, 2008 6:28 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
TVP
I think Moneyball mentions Oakland’s experience with Van Poppel as one of the factors that turned them away from throwing money at “projectable” high school pitchers, and toward more polished college players. Anderson and Cahill were both drafted out of high school, but that’s really all they have in common with Van Poppel at this point in their careers.
The truly remarkable thing about Van Poppel is how he managed to be rated as a top prospect for so long, despite being consistently lousy:
In 1990, he pitched well in the NWL, and then started to show his wildness in the MWL (17 K, 10 BB in 13.2 innings). BA made him their #1 overall prospect.
In 1991 he went directly to AA, where he had 115 K and 90 BB in 132.1 IP. This earned him a September callup to the A’s, and BA’s #2 overall ranking.
In 1992 he was promoted to AAA, pitching only 45.1 innings with 29 K and 35 BB. BA ranked him #7 overall.
In 1993 he again started at AAA, striking out 71 and walking 54 in 78.2 IP, with an ERA of 5.84, which naturally earned him a permanent promotion to the big league team after the all star break.
That’s 6+ BB/9 IP at every level above short-season, all while being aggressively promoted and considered a top 10 prospect.
Thanks for tomorrow 'cause I've had enough
by andeux on Dec 15, 2008 7:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
can't speak for BA
But if I recall correctly, Van Poppel had planned on going to college and one of the stipulations he had for signing with the A’s instead was that he reach the majors by a certain date. Not sure the A’s had much choice in promoting him. I think it’s safe to say that more time at each level of the minors couldn’t have hurt him.
by ozzman99 on Dec 17, 2008 1:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs















