Much respect to whoever can explain this trade to me
by BLieve on Dec 11, 2008 9:08 PM EST
Email
PrintAs a Mets fan, I love the JJ Putz deal. As a baseball nerd, I need to know why the Mariners accepted this. I am most curious about their standpoint and how they approached this deal.
Questions in General
-What are the prospect grades for Carp, Cleto and Carrera?
-Is Sean Green worth a little more or equal to Jason Vargas in terms of value?
Questions for Mariners GM
-Why swap Reed for Chavez? Could you not have asked for concessions in the prospects part of the deal.
-Is it fair to say Green, Valbuena and a throw in could have netted Gutierrez?
-If so, why trade quality in a great closer for quantity in a 5th starter/good reliever, a left handed specialist, and 3 C+ prospects? Could you not have requested Heilman, a B/B- prospect and a high upside C/C+ prospect instead?
After writing this up, this trade has progressed from very bad to just not logical in my mind. I cant think of a comparable trade at the moment but it just blows me away that the Mariners did not get a top 5 prospect from the Mets and settled for quantity. They did get a young potentially average CFer in Gutierrez but they had to part with a young potentially average 2B in Valbuena to do it.
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Mets Answers
Carp: B-
Cleto: C+ with sleeper upside
Carrera:C
Sean Green has more value that Vargas because he can actually get SOMEONE out. lol.. He should be a nice addition to the pen and the move to the NL can’t hurt.
Seattle Answers:
Chavez is a better defender
Possibly
I’m to burnt from finals to even read the last one, or your final point.
Remember: baseball guys... baseball...
I think I have found my answer
From USSMariner.com. Very insightful points I did not consider.
Gutierrez is a +2 win OF (yes, even with a questionable bat, he’s a league average player) who instantly solves the center field problem. Heilman is a +1 win reliever with an undefined role. He wants to start but isn’t good enough to, so if they can convince him to close, that’s in everyone’s best interests. Chavez is a +1 win OF who will probably share time with Wlad (like Gutierrez, his defense is other worldly), and Carp is a +0 win prospect with moderate upside – think Lyle Overbay if he develops well.
The M’s ship off about +4.5 wins and get back +4 wins, so you could call it a big push overall, but that’s where the nuances come in. Here are the reasons I like this deal:
1. The +2 win player the M’s are getting back is much younger than the +2 win player they’re giving up, and they have him under team control for a lot longer. For where this team is, Gutierrez is more valuable than Putz.
2. One of Valbuena or Lopez had to go, because there was no way for them to coexist at full value. In that sense, the M’s swapped a prospect at a position of depth for a prospect at a position where they have a gaping hole. I like Valbuena better than Carp, but Carp has a much clearer road to a job in Seattle.
3. By acquiring Gutierrez and Chavez, the M’s just have given themselves the ability to run out one of the best outfield defenses in baseball on days where they send a contact pitcher to the hill. A Chavez/Gutierrez/Ichiro outfield will make Silva and Washburn look significantly better than they really are, and by investing in the defense, the M’s have made it possible that they could salvage some value from a pair of bad contracts.
To me, those three things swing this trade into the plus column for the M’s. That doesn’t make it a total home run – Heilman’s desire to start and the loss of Putz and Green make it much more likely that Morrow’s going to remain in the bullpen, Chavez is only under team control for one year, and Gutierrez’s right-handed bat isn’t a great fit for Safeco.
But in this case, I’d say the positives outweigh the negatives. It’s not an outright fleecing like Putz for Joyce would have been (and if that was on the table, I’d have done that before I did this, but it’s quite possible that was never offered), but I’d say that the Mariners are better right now than they were yesterday and they have a brighter future, and that makes this a good trade.
You touched on the odd thing
The best player the M’s got wasn’t from the Mets, which confounds but pleases me as a Mets fan.
Exactly
Our biggest lost in this trade was Endy Chavez because he is worth 10 times more to us than he will be to any other team. You let him roam any of that outfield grass and you feel like your lawn is secure. At the same time he is the most unimportant important fan favorite since the Nets Brian Scalabrine or maybe St. Louis Scott Spiezio.
Heilman is not a loss from an emotional standpoint. Vargas might be an effective reliever…or a minor leaguer for life. Carp sounds like a Lyle Overbay at best and Cleto, Carrera have high ceilings but probability says they won’t contribute much in the majors. Even if the Putz’s arm falls off and Cleto becomes a flamethrowing all-star, this is a good trade.
The Mets went in with a pair Kings
The Mariners went in 3,4 suited
The Indians went in Ace high
Thats my final verdict
3-4 suited?
Really?
I think of it more as a J-10 suited. Crackers. Those J-10s and 8-9 suited hands kill those overpairs so often. Cowboys are nice but if that Ace comes on the flop they are as good as dead. And even if you get your set on the turn, that still leaves about a 9% chance for the J-10 to make Broadway on the river.
"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile
Looks like...
you figured it all out for yourself. As I said in the other trade thread, I think it was a good trade for all three teams involved. The Indians traded from an are of depth, the Mariners traded from an area of depth (2B) and from something they don’t need (can’t save many games if you are losing 100), and the Mets got rid of some of their middling prospects and got what they needed the most.
"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile
The OF defense point is not one that can be over stated.
Gutierrez last year hauled in 25 more outs than the average RF, making it look easy. In CF, he has the potential to do even better. He has a plus arm and gets great jumps on balls. The Ms now have one of the best defensive OFs in baseball. All three have plus range and Gutierrez and Ichiro have plus arms.
This is pretty important given the colossal size of the Safeco outfield.
The only thing I’m worried about is that Chavez, Betancourt, Lopez and Gutierrez will each struggle to slug over .400. The batting order will be pretty impotent on days that Johjima plays.
Chavez...
will probably be the 4th OF as the Ms give Balentien a chance to show he can hit major league pitching.
If he can’t, though Chavez is the man until one of Saunders or Halman is ready.
Gladly
1. Grades for prospects w/ little descriptions:
1. Mike Carp B-; As I’m sure you know, Carp is the most well known of the prospects. He has above average hitting skills, average, power and discipline, and isn’t horrible against the lefties. Scouts believe that he’ll be a MLBer, but not a great one.
2. Maikel Cleto C+; Cleto was a personal favorite of mine. He’s a pretty big guy with a SWEET looking fastball. Reminds me of Heilman’s. The 19 year old held his own at A+ ball, but has no legit secondary offerings or command to speak of (25 wild pitches). He could be great, or collapse.
3. Zeke Carrera C/C+; Carrera has speed and some decent plate discipline. If he can sustain a decent MLB average (.270, .280), he could have a .350 OBP and a .400 SLG. Combine that with stolen bases and that’s quite good. My example is like an 80th percentile at this point, but at this moment he could be either Jose Reyes or a bust.
4. Sean Green is worth much more than Vargas
5. Endy Chavez is Jeremy Reed with better speed and defense. It’s possible that the Mariners were simply looking for a way to get a little something more, and the Mets wouldn’t risk losing Putz because of a dispute over Chavez.
6. The Indians had a lot of interest in Smith, so it isn’t probable that Gutierrez and Valbuena could have netted Gutierrez.
7. Even though this isn’t an “if so” question that applies to me, the Mariners’ main objective was obviously to add some depth and get some talent. Putz isn’t a “great closer.” He has great stuff, but even I predicted that he’d get injured. Heilman, Cleto, and Carrera have real upside as well. Don’t lose sight of that.
As a Mariners fan
you should like this trade.
You get rid of Putz, who isn’t even that good outside for a season and a half, is already 32, and $5M dollars while filling a few holes.
The Ms are a rebuilding club—no contention for next year and likely the same for 2010. With Gutierrez and Chavez you get a solid platoon pair for LF/CF (depends where Balentien plays) that complements each other well—Gutierrez w/ more power, Chavez w/ more speed and D. Worried about places for Halman and Saunders? They probably won’t be ready until late-year at the earliest, and it’s not like you can’t flip Gutierrez and Balentien to get something valuable (you can probably get a decent #3 for that).
Second, it adds a starter in Heilman, who thinks like a starter on the mound when he pitches, and is simply a starter by nature. He replaces Ryan Rowland-Smith in the rotation, who moves to the bullpen and becomes a pretty solid middle reliever there.
Green and Smith is a swap of righty specialists; if I remember correctly, Green is about to get arbitration, so do you want to be paying a couple of million bucks do a righty specialist, when you can get a younger one who can do a better job?
Vargas adds starter insurance; he can probably be an effective #4/#5 who is young (25) and cost-controlled. If he can’t be a starter, he may be able to fill in a LOOGY role.
You ask, why swap Reed for Chavez? Chavez has better D, more speed, and more ML experience than Reed. Plus, Reed carries the bust label from his years as highly-touted prospect, with potential he likely won’t tap into at this point. Everyone seems to have forgotten about the application of that label to Chavez.
Carp is a pretty decent prospect whose ceiling is pretty much Casey Kotchman right now (with a few more walks). He’ll be ready by late 2009/early 2010, so he can replace the terrible Kenji Johjima at that role.
I think this deal makes a heck of a lot of sense for the Ms—they fill in a rotation spot, one (possibly 2) bullpen spots, a platoon spot, and a 1st base successor slot with this trade. No one was going to give the Ms anything flashy for a 32-yr-old reliever coming off shoulder issues; the deal is quite solid. If anything, my question is why the Mets gave up so much to get Putz!
--Pablo Zevallos of yankeesfuture.wordpress.com
by Pablo Zevallos on Dec 11, 2008 10:40 PM EST reply actions
Whoops
forgot that you said you were a Mets fan! In that case, you just lose two middle relievers, your successor for the aging Carlos Delgado, your energetic 4th OF, and some starter insurance (necessary since you only have 3 under contract) for a reliever. A reliever, mind you, who won’t even be your closer, but a setupman. Terrible deal for the Mets.
--Pablo Zevallos of yankeesfuture.wordpress.com
by Pablo Zevallos on Dec 11, 2008 10:43 PM EST up reply actions
Talk about blinders
I had an entire point by point reply to this but I decided to sum it up with “PPTTTPPTPPTTFFTPTP!!!!!!!!!”
by Lunkwill Fook on Dec 11, 2008 10:48 PM EST up reply actions
Whoooops
Carp has below average power for a first basemen and daniel murphy has already proven he’s a better hitter and can handle first base…
or we’ll just sign a free agent like dunn with the money we saved from the contract that K-Rod signed, play him in left field for a season and then shift him to first….
or maybe minaya will go to the wilpons and say, “look we have the best closer/set up combo in baseball and now we should really push to sign lowe or sheets, whomever the yankees dont offer enough to shore up our rotation.”
a rotation of santan, sheets/lowe, pelfrey, heilman, niese/lesser FA competition is solid to say the least….
Energetic 4th outfielder?
Endy is energetic, but he’s a 5th outfielder. a 638 OPS at 1.8 million isn’t something to be missed.
Endy Chavez could go up there without a bat in his hand
And still be an average starting player his defense is so good.
Ok, so I’m exaggerating. But you get the point. He’s an absolute steal at $1.8 million. He’s worth about 10 times that.
by thejd44 on Dec 12, 2008 2:07 AM EST up reply actions
LOL LIES!
1. To call Joe Smith a middle reliever is a joke. He is a ROOGY. He isn’t pitching a complete inning. We gained that back in Green.
2. To assume that Aaron Heilman could still pitch in NY after this year is INSANE He has good SO numbers and he’ll be good for SEA but not for the NYM.
3. The Successor to Delgado.. I shouldn’t even touch this one… But if you think a team with a new stadium, and a 140 million dollar payroll is going to play replacement level(i need to check but he will be about that) first baseman you are out of your mind. He has a slow bat, is a bad first baseman/athlete, and low power…
i’m going to bed…
Remember: baseball guys... baseball...
How do you figure Heilman makes the M's rotation?
The M’s already have King Felix, Erik Bedard, Brandon Morrow, Ryan Rowland-Smith(who made 8 consecutive quality starts to end the season), Carlos Silva(bloated untradable contract), Jarrod Washburn(another bloated contract), and Miguel Batista(had to move to bullpen because of glut of starters and ineffectiveness but had a good ‘07) as starting pitchers. Heilman doesn’t have a third pitch which any starter needs, unproven as a starter, plus he still needs to be stretched out. While he may not like it, the M’s might be able to convince him to take the open closer spot.
Sean Green is much better than his numbers, in my opinion. They loved to overwork him and by the end of the season he was just gassed and his numbers tumbled. Reed is a pretty darn good fielder in his own right, the year he started for the M’s in center he made a number of web gems and had pretty good range, maybe not to the point of Endy but still very solid.
I don’t think you can ask a pitcher coming off a 5 ERA season to be your closer (Even if we both know he’s better then that). It’s much more likely they ask Morrow or R-S to take that role, as much as you might dislike it.
by adropofvenom on Dec 12, 2008 7:42 AM EST up reply actions
Actually
Considering the Mariners are really unlikely to contend next year, there is no dire need for an established closer. Honestly, I would put money on Lowe ending up as closer if his stuff returns to his pre-injury levels now that he has been back for a year. Morrow and RRS have alot more value as quality staters, especially if they continue to pitch like they did at the end of 2008.
by tdot mariner fan on Dec 12, 2008 1:50 PM EST up reply actions
If...
you think Putz isn’t a good pitcher, nobody should care what you think. Period.
+1
Putz has proven himself to be an elite closer over the last couple years. To basically trade Putz and Reed for Gutierrez is irresponsible management of a team. Basically the way I see this trade is that the M’s got worse for 2009 and failed to improve much beyond 2009 (assuming Putz would leave via FA). They got a bunch of backups and mediocre at best prospects for an elite closer.
The M’s quite possibly will put the worst offense in the history of baseball out in the field in 2009. Other than Ichiro and maybe Jose Lopez and Jeff Clement at DH, I don’t see one starting offensive player that will hit > .250. And it’s not like all those .240 hitters are Mike Camerons that still get on base. Seattle has a pretty darn good rotation and defense. That is it. They will lose a ton of close ballgames that the bullpen blew because the pen went from being a strength to a major weakness, and the offense won’t score any runs.
Bill Bavasi’s ghost must be haunting that franchise or something.
Elite closer?
Not really. I consider guys like Rivera and Papelbon to be elite closers. Putz was a good closer, with an injury history. Throughout the past 20 years there have been a lot of closers who had a great season or two, but couldn’t keep it up for an entire career. Seattle improved their defense and added some upside prospects. Plus they cleared salary so they can possibly sign Josh Fields to replace Putz.
Gutierrez needed a change of scenery so he could play every day. Lots of players need that to show what they have. There are some players out there who mentally cannot perform on a daily basis if they don’t know when they are going to play. Maybe Gutes is one of those players? Endy makes a good defensive 4th OF so they can look to sign a all bat, no defense LF. Then Endy can be a late inning defensive replacement for him. Or maybe they give Balentien a shot this year to be that player.
Carp could likely start this year and give them better numbers than Jose Vidro did last year. Plus they have Clement to be the other half of a DH/1B combo since they can’t play him at Catcher after Bavasi stupidly extended Johjima’s contract.
And I think you forgot about Beltre… he will likely hit over 250 next year, as will Betancourt. No matter who they put in the field though, it will likely look better than the line-ups the Athletics were running out there for much of the second half of last season.
"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile
Absolutely elite
Putz 2006: 78.1 IP 104K/13BB 2.30 ERA/0.92 WHIP
Putz 2007: 71.2 IP 82K/13BB 1.39 ERA/0.70 WHIP
Looks pretty elite to me – every bit as good as Pap’s and Rivera. Sure there have been others who have been flashes in the pan for a year or two, but Putz certainly is the goods.
You're
undervaluing defense. Putz is a great closer when healthy, but even great closers are really overrated on the trade market. CF defense, on the other hand, isn’t. Gutierrez is a league average player under club control for 4 years for cheap even if he repeats ‘08 offensively. If he splits his ’08 and ’07 production, he’s comfortably above average. If he hits ‘07 levels, he’s a borderline star. If, God forbid, he’s able to improve into his peak years, he’s a VERY valuable player.
Carp and the other prospects are really nice throw-ins. I love JJ and recognize that he was one of the 2 best relievers on the planet in ‘06 and ’07 and is still very, very good, but I’m happy with this return.
Beltre is not going to hit .250? I must know why.
Also, Betancourt and Johjima should hit above .250 but the rest of their preformances would not be that special, especially Betancourt’s defense. Also, alot of poeple seem to be forgetting that Balentin should be the starting LF not Endy Chavez.. In fact besides the outfield and Beltre, the defense will be pretty mediocre.
by tdot mariner fan on Dec 12, 2008 1:57 PM EST up reply actions
Hmm...
I never said that. I just said to give up so much for a 32-yr old pitcher who is about to go into decline is a lot. That’s all I said.
If you don’t know how to read, nobody should care what you think.
--Pablo Zevallos of yankeesfuture.wordpress.com
by Pablo Zevallos on Dec 12, 2008 4:17 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah, but you're just a Yankee homer picking fights
Seriously. I like how you’ve been voting for Betances for the community list for a whole month, and now you’re bending over backwards to find fault with the Putz deal for the Mets. Enjoy Burnett.
I don't seem to be alone.
Betances has garnered 10%+ support for several lists now and has consistently placed 3rd/4th. I think he’s a better prospect than the wreck that is Adam Miller, the very ordinary Vin Mazzaro, the extremely raw Engel Beltre (with less of a track record of results than Betances, mind you), or the injured Chris Marrero, who is good (no doubt) but did the same level twice without much improvement. Don’t forget that Nick Adenhart (I’m not sure whether or not he was injured, I’ll check), who was pretty bad this year. So yes, I would place him higher.
--Pablo Zevallos of yankeesfuture.wordpress.com
by Pablo Zevallos on Dec 13, 2008 5:30 PM EST up reply actions
Well, you missed my main point
Which is that you’re simply a Yankee homer picking arguments with Mets fans. It’s a good trade and you have to stretch pretty damn hard to find the Mets in the wrong on this one.
Hm...
“You get rid of Putz, who isn’t even that good outside for a season and a half, is already 32, and $5M dollars while filling a few holes.”
Yeah, you’re right. My reading comprehension sucks.
You see, the problem with comment threads is that your earlier comments don’t just disappear.
JJ Putz was one of the 2 or 3 best relievers in baseball in ‘06 and ’07, and was hurt in ’08. He’s a damn good pitcher, and one of the few true relief aces in baseball.
Oh, and when healthy, he’s better than Francisco Rodriguez, which should be interesting.
Re: Hm...
that good = relative
good = absolute
And see this: http://www.baseball-reference.com/p/putzjj01.shtml
At age 27, would he by my closer? No.
28? No.
29? Yes.
30? Yes.
31? No.
He’s only had 1.5 good seasons, and consider that he’s about to exit his prime (he’s 32 and is coming off a shoulder injury. Now, if you look at it from the other standpoint—that he’s amazing etc.—then you dealt all that talent for one year of goodness. There’s no way you win.
--Pablo Zevallos of yankeesfuture.wordpress.com
by Pablo Zevallos on Dec 13, 2008 5:25 PM EST up reply actions
JJ
learned a brand new pitch in ’06. His ’04-05 seasons mean nothing.
He’s also had 2 damn good seasons, not 1.5. More important than the duration is the way he did it. Fantastic K-rate coupled with excellent control and an ability to induce ground balls at a really high rate. His success was entirely based on repeatable skills. There is nothing fluky whatsoever about Putz’s success.
Thanks for pointing me to JJ’s career stats. There’s no way I’d ever seen those on my own.
As long as we’re at B-R, though, you might want to take a look at this.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/psplit.cgi?n1=putzjj01&year=2008
Pay special attention to his second-half numbers. He came back from his injury and got his control back. He also did it without losing his stuff. His average fastball velocity was 95mph.
If he gets hurt that’s one thing. A healthy JJ Putz, though, is one of the best relievers in baseball. Period.
Unless he's had a huge dropoff in the past year or so
Everybody here is severely underrating Endy Chavez’s defense. He’s the Adam Everett (pre-injury) of center field.
I think this trade does a lot for Seattle, and I’m an A’s fan. I’m not sure what the Mets were doing actually. They gave up a lot of players for an ok set-up guy and a mediocre reliever. They also gave up Joe Smith, who is better than Sean Green.
by thejd44 on Dec 12, 2008 2:03 AM EST reply actions
Agree only somewhat
But the bat matters as well, and it was pretty bad. The Mets, who had a gold glover starting 161 games in CF, really didn’t need a late inning defensive outfielder. They were one of the worst teams in the NL after the 6th inning, so obviously the strategy of having a good defensively LF to come in in late innings wasn’t doing a lot to help lock down wins.
The Mets are better off with a better bench bat in that roster spot. Maybe Seatle will be better off with Chavez. Endy + Gutierrez could actually make a decent CF platoon if they want to move Ichiro back to RF.
You're right
Beltran makes Chavez a luxury. It’s not so much that the Mets should’ve kept Chavez, but I still think they gave up too much. If Green and Smith are a wash, and Reed is only a marginally better hitter than Chavez, they basically traded 4 ok prospects for Putz. I still think it’s an overpay for two years of a guy they’re going to use as a set-up man.
by thejd44 on Dec 12, 2008 6:05 PM EST up reply actions
I think you're overestimating the package
By your math, you’re still counting someone like Vargas as a prospect. He’s not. Carp is the highest probability prospect they gave up, and he’s a bad defensive first baseman whose breakout year was largely a BABIP creation. I think his best case scenario is Lyle Overbay. To be realistic, a guy like that isn’t going to start for a team like the Mets. While the Mets may have given up value, I don’t think they gave up anything they’ll miss, which is what’s especially nice about the deal for them.
Calling Green and Smith a wash is overly short-sighted. Age and Major League Service time makes Smith a much more valuable pitcher. Cost wise it doesn’t really affect the Mets because they have loads of money, but even beyond that, years of control effects all teams. You want the player farthest away from FA.
Joe Smith might have had better ERA numbers then Sean Green, but essentially they’re the same player, just Green is older. Their peripherials are near-identical, the difference in the ERA is almost entirely because Green faced about twice as many Lefties as a ROOGY should, and Smith did not.
And I think you’re severly underrating Putz if you think he’s an “ok set-up guy”. Need I remind people this is the same guy who in 07 had a 1.38 ERA and a 0.698 WHIP? That’s the kind of potential this guy has when healthy.
by adropofvenom on Dec 12, 2008 7:51 AM EST up reply actions
By calling him a set-up guy, I just mean that he's going to be a set-up guy for the Mets.
I know he would be a closer on a lot of teams, and he might even be the Mets closer once K-Rod’s arm falls off.
by thejd44 on Dec 12, 2008 6:06 PM EST up reply actions
Every time I hear that Putz is “ok” or “mediocre”, I just tune out. Seriously, I don’t get the people trying to make this trade look bad for the Mets. I just don’t.
by Lunkwill Fook on Dec 12, 2008 10:01 AM EST up reply actions
Per Baseball America (via Adam Rubin)
Cleto, a righthander capable of reaching 100 mph, was about to be rated the No. 8 prospect in the organization by Baseball America, while first baseman Carp was to be rated 18th and the outfielder Carrera 22nd. Heilman may be given a chance to start with Seattle.
Most people here have likely been undervaluing Cleto. He apparently made a lot of progress this year with his delivery, and was able to more consistently locate his plus FB down in the zone. He sounds somewhat similar to Holt at this point; he’s a 6’3" 215 lbs, able to sustain mid 90’s velocity deep into games, and gets good movement as well down in the strike zone. His secondary stuff is behind even Holt, but he is still only 19.
The rankings for Carp and Carerra both seem a bit low to me, but neither has real high upside. Carp I think could hit around .270/.340/.420 in the majors now, and at only 22 I’d think there would be some power upside there still. He had a .403 OBP in AA, but you’d like the power to develop a bit more as he’s limited to 1B or DH.
Carerra has some speed and plays good defense, but is likely a 4th OF type. I do think there could be some gap power there, and his numbers will improve this year, as last season he made the jump all the way from rookie ball. But he’s not as talented as Gutierrez, the guy Seattle got from Cleveland in this trade. Probably not enough power to project him as a starter, but I think he will eventually make a big league roster.
Green is about equal to Smith; his numbers were a bit worse, but that’s because he was used less sparingly. He was actually better against both RH and LH batters, but faced a higher percentage of LH bats than Smith.
Vargas struggled in 2006-2007, but was likely impacted by the hip problem which eventually required surgery. He apparently looked good in the AFL. I still think he’s a #5 SP at best, but he could be intriguing as a pen arm. He has a good slider and is tough on lefties, and the FB could play up a bit out of the pen giving him 2 above average pitches. I believe he has an option year left (all last season on the DL didn’t use an option, and he should still qualify for 4, as he was only drafted in 2004).
green and smith
These guys’ numbers are so similar. 3.00 gb/fb, awful against lefties, good against righties.
A few answers to the general call of the thread...
http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/7280/BadAngle.gif
http://i32.tinypic.com/6qgz12.jpg
http://i27.tinypic.com/28akex2.jpg
http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/27021/IbanezWallMiss_medium.gif
Watching outs turn into doubles and singles turn into triples really sucks.
This is why Ms fans like this trade.
And Mets fans
Go from hating Ibanez and praying to instantly loving him!
Who's world is it? It's yours.
Phillies are sure doing their part to make sure they don't repeat...
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Well, Ibanez can DH for the Phil...oh, wait...
WTF are National League teams interested in him for? Have they seen his defense?
by thejd44 on Dec 12, 2008 6:07 PM EST up reply actions
Yes
Nearly every really good team has a plus defensive CF. Most playoff teams do. The M’s had Cameron there when they won 116 games in 2001 (and really the last time they won over 90 in ’93).
In most cases, dealing for quantity rather than quality isn’t a good strategy. But when you have a team that lost 100 games last year, and not alot of talent coming off the farm either, at that point you need to think about getting at least average players out there at every position.
The right way to build a team, IMHO, is defense up the middle, bats in the corners, and collect young power arms.
Carp could end up a solid corner bat (though limited to 1B/DH), Gutierrez/Chavez/Cabrerra are all good defensive CF, and Cleto is a power arm sitting in the mid-90s at 19. And Heilman was one of the most over worked relievers in baseball, despite apparently pitching thorough a knee injury. He appeared in 78 games last season, including 25 on 0 days rest, and 21 on 1 day rest. I don’t think he’d be a good closer without improving the slider, but he can be a good reliever again.
And by the team the M's are good, Putz will be gone (or too old to commit a lot of money to)
So is this package worth more than losing Putz in two years and maybe getting a couple draft picks? I think so.
And with all the closers out there this off-season, I’m not sure they could’ve gotten more in a trade. And his value may never be higher with his injury history/age/contract.
by thejd44 on Dec 12, 2008 6:09 PM EST up reply actions
btw
good call to all you dopes who called me out and said i was being a homer for proposing a package centered around heliman for putz
so the mariners would never consider that huh? again, good call, at least you were right about one thing one of us WAS completely out of touch with baseball…
by Rob Castellano on Dec 12, 2008 11:12 PM EST reply actions
Well the trade was more Putz for Gutierrez
Gutierrez was the player Zduriencik wanted from the deal, Heilman was more a secondary player in the trade
He could have had him for Green
Putz and the Mets didn’t play much part in the Gutierrez trade. The only player the Mets contributed there was Smith, and he’s not much different from Green. And Endy isn’t worth too much more than Reed.
The Key players for Putz were clearly Heilman and Cleto. After that, Carp and Caberra. So Heilman and three prospects.
On the other hand...
I just read this:
The Mets initially offered Heilman for Gutierrez, but Shapiro wanted Smith, instead.
So, maybe Heilman was less critical than Smith, from the Mets.
by acerimusdux on Dec 13, 2008 10:39 AM EST up reply actions
I've personally seen Cleto pitch
I wrote him up on my blog. Here’s the breakdown.
Maikel Cleto, RHP, NYM -19-year old IFA from the Dominican Republic; (6 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 8 K)
* Looked every bit of 218 lbs, but seemed shorter than his listed height of 6’3"
* Spent first two innings in the 92-94 range with his fastball.
* Velocity spiked in the 3rd and 4th as he was consistently hitting 94 and topping out at 97 MPH.
* Fastball seemed to lack movement.
* Breaking pitches were rudimentary at best. Looked as if he threw a cutter at 88-90 and a very poor curve in the upper 70’s.
* Slowed arm action and altered mechanics tipped curve badly.
* Sling shot arm action. with size/mechanics, not much room for projection with the fastball. With it already at 92-97, does he need it?
* Bulldog on the mound, really attacked hitters and had a nice “swagger.”
His fastball velocity, along with his demeanor has me thinking closer. Attitude and swagger resembled Ugueth Urbina. Needs SIGNIFICANT refinement or addition of a true second pitch to reach potential.
Mike Newman
baseballhandyman.com
by Baseball Handyman on Dec 13, 2008 9:46 AM EST reply actions
Mets Perspective
Joe Smith is a ROOGY. Will never be a closer. A modest middle reliever, very replaceable.
Aaron Heilman has upside. He had reached the point of no return with the METS. He could never be successful with the Mets. He may succeed elsewhere. Biomechanics experts profile him as a “high injury risk” as a starter. He was addition by subtraction.
Carp. No way that he would have ever procured the Mets 1B role, absent a quantum step forward in his skills. At best he’s Mike Jacobs with less power.
Chavez. A gold glove defender. However, he is exposed at any stretch in which an MLB team has to use him as a starter for any prolonged perod of time because his bat is significantly below average for an MLB OF-er
No way not to like the deal as a Mets fan.
Fat man is no more,
Bursting on through Heaven's Door
Come on in, says Bill
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