Milwaukee Brewers Top 20 Prospects for 2009
by John Sickels on Dec 10, 2008 12:35 PM EST
45 comments
We were prospects once, and young
All grades are EXTREMELY PRELIMINARY and subject to change. Don’t get too worried about exact rankings at this point, especially once you get out of the top 10. Grade C+/C guys are pretty interchangeable depending on what you are looking for.
1) Mat Gamel, 3B, Grade B+: Bat is very impressive, not sure about where he fits on the roster due to defensive limitations.
2) Alcides Escobar, SS, Grade B: Should I go with B+ here? Defense is excellent and made huge progress with hitting, though I want to see another good year with the bat.
3) Brett Lawrie, C, Grade B: One of my favorite players from the 2008 draft. I totally buy into the bat. Only questions about position keep him from B+.
4) Jeremy Jeffress, RHP, Grade B: Huge upside with 100 MPH fastball, putting things together gradually, still learning to pitch.
5) Jon Lucroy, C, Grade B: Strong bat, underrated defense pushes him ahead of Salome in my opinion.
6) Angel Salome, C, Grade B: He can mash, but defense continues to draw mixed reviews, and if he can’t catch where does he play?
7) Lorenzo Cain, OF, Grade B-: Tools guy continues to improve his skills.
8) Jake Odorizzi, RHP, Grade B-: Another personal favorite from ’08 draft. Given that Lawrie and Odorizzi were my two top picks in my Twins Shadow Draft, I suppose I think like the Brewers do.
9) Cutter Dykstra, OF, Grade C+: Almost a clone of his father, though perhaps not quite as good in the end.
10) Caleb Gindl, OF, Grade C+: Needs to cut back on the strikeouts, but a big bat from a small body.
11) Cole Gillespie, OF, Grade C+:
12) Wily Peralta, RHP, Grade C+: A high upside arm, but a long way from the majors.
13) Cody Scarpetta, RHP, Grade C+: Who? Watch this guy….live arm, great numbers in rookie ball, could be a breakthrough candidate in ’09.
14) Taylor Green, 3B, Grade C+: Solid hitter, but perhaps not enough pop to play third in the long run.
15) Omar Aguilar, RHP, Grade C+: Another live arm making progress
16) Alexandre Periard, RHP, Grade C+: Numbers aren’t superb, but he is young, throws strikes, and gets grounders.
17) Josh Romanski, LHP, Grade C+: Polished college lefty could move fast. He can hit some too.
18) Evan Frederickson, LHP, Grade C: Huge upside arm from the left side, but very raw for a college guy.
19) Erik Komatsu, OF, Grade C: A solid all-around player, a Gillespie type who has average tools but knows how to play.
20) Efrain Nieves, LHP, Grade C: Projectable lefty got good reports from scouts in the Pioneer League. Control best attribute right now.
Others: Cody Adams, RHP: Blake Billings, RHP; Zach Braddock, LHP; Bobby Bramhall, LHP; Brent Brewer, SS; Chris Cody, LHP; Tim Dillard, RHP; Eric Farris, 2B: Eric Fryer, OF-C; Maverick Lasker, RHP; Seth Lintz, RHP; Roque Mercedes, RHP; Rob Wooten, RHP; Brae Wright, LHP; Shawn Zarraga, C.
If there is someone else that you really think should be included, make your case. I always miss someone. Space is limited and some of the players above will probably get cut if I have to add someone else.
SYSTEM IN BRIEF: The Brewers don’t have anyone at the top that looks like a surefire star. Both Gamel and Escobar have questions still, though both should be good players certainly. I love Lawrie, and between him, Salome, and Lucroy the Brewers have depth in young catching. Lawrie could advance super fast if he takes to defense as well as the Brewers hope. Both Escobar and Lawrie are under consideration for B+. Tools guys like Cain and Escobar made progress this year, and they also have good depth in “solid” types like Gillespie, Gindl, and Green.
Pitching depth looks like it needs improvement. Jeffress has a Grade A arm but Grade C polish, leading to the Grade B rating at this time. There are relief arms with potential, and some guys at the lower levels who could be good in time but aren’t there quite yet.
Overall I think it’s a solid system that could look even stronger a year from now depending on how the younger guys pan out.
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We were prospects once and young.
Weird – just started reading Moore’s book a few days ago.
by slurve on Dec 10, 2008 12:41 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
It's really good
A friend of the family gave it to me well before it was made into a movie or whatever, and I read it straight through.
by mraver on Dec 10, 2008 1:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Gamal
Not sure I agree with that ranking. If he cannot find a place on the field he is really worthless. His bat has great value at the hot corner, but in the Corner OF or 1B i’m not sure he is nearly as valuable.
Remember: baseball guys... baseball...
by Metty5 on Dec 10, 2008 12:58 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I agree
I think he’s a solid prospect, but I think he’s quite overrated. He’s not going ot hit .330 every year, doesn’t look like he can stick at 3b. Could get stuck into a bench/AAA/utility ish role (i.e. Branyan), or limited ML time 1bman (i.e. Josh Phelps). That said he could make it. So we’ll see. I just think if he can’t stick at 3b, the odds are really going to be stacked against him.
by jayjay on Dec 10, 2008 1:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Escobar
I think he is more of a B type of prospect than B+. The defense is legit from all reports, but his bat is average. He doesn’t walk so his OBP is always going to be BA driven and he doesn’t have much power and doesn’t project to have much either. It limits his offensive upside. Still, he should be a regular shortstop in the majors, but I just don’t see any star potential with him, just a real solid regular.
by dougdirt on Dec 10, 2008 1:16 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
League-average glove/700 OPS is a middle-of-the-pack starting SS
If his bat is good enough to hit .280, I see him as league-average. If you project it higher than that, I can totally see a B+.
by mraver on Dec 10, 2008 1:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
League average
I don’t put much into league average because it includes backups who wind up getting playing time. In 2008 the top 30 SS by PA hit a combined .280/.334/.408. That seems like about what I would project him at, slightly higher average, but OBP and SLG looks right. That makes him a real solid regular, just like you. I can’t rank a solid regular as a B+, but thats just me I guess.
by dougdirt on Dec 10, 2008 7:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
just a quibble
But the way you calculated the “league average” will almost certainly skew the number higher, as there are more players who are exceptionally good than there are exceptionally bad.
In 2008, only 15 ML SS had both 200 ABs and an OPS over .700.
by mraver on Dec 10, 2008 9:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
an average bat
with a Gold Glove sounds like B+ or better to me, and it seems that if you ask any scout who has seen him he is the first name they’d mention if you asked about future GOld Glovers.
by nms on Dec 10, 2008 10:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Funny story
In the mid 80’s, I was at a baseball card convention and I found the Robin Yount 1975 “mini” rookie baseball card in a 5 cent bin. I bought the card and within 10 minutes had turned around and sold it for 60 cents! At the age of 11 or 12, I sure thought I was something big!
What is that card going for these days?? 30 or 40 dollars?
Oh well!
I also gave away a Lou Brock rookie card when I was a kid because it was a Cubs card and he played for the Cardinals so I didn’t think the card was that valuable. My dad wasn’t very happy with me on that one!
The one constant through all the years, Ray, has been baseball. It reminds us of all that once was good, and that could be again.
by Savoy on Dec 10, 2008 1:16 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Glavine rookie card
I cut out Glavine’s face on one of his rookie cards so I could see what other players looked like in a Braves uniform.
by DeJay on Dec 11, 2008 5:40 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
initial observations
Taylor Green is a tad underrated here…he’s a Top 5-6 Brewers prospect and darn near a Top 100 prospect IMHO.
I would have both Brent Brewer and Rob Wooten somewhere in the 17-20 range.
But, as always, one of the better prospect lists around. Kudos to John.
by mjwelch11 on Dec 10, 2008 1:56 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Tad underrated?
I have no opinion on Green, but if you think he’s a top-100 prospect, then you seem to disagree pretty strongly with John on him
TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems
by OldProspects on Dec 10, 2008 2:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I too strongly disagree with John in regards to Green. He’s better than a C+.
I’d put Escobar at B+. He’s got a lot of upside and he could already be the best defensive shortstop in all of baseball.
Oh, and John, it’s Mat Gamel. Only one “t.”
by jwaltz on Dec 10, 2008 10:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
you think
Rob Wooten is a better pitcher than Josh Romanski or Cody Adams?
I’m not saying that sarcastically, just a genuine question.
Wooten is a nice pitcher, and he dominates bad hitting, but I’d worry that he is a kind of a one trick pony that AA bats could hit.
by nms on Dec 10, 2008 10:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
performance-wise, I do...
I’ve never seen Wooten pitch (except for the handful of times on TV at UNC) live, but from reading his splits, and hearing scouts’ take on him, it seems to me that Wooten is a guy they have pegged for the fast track the next year or so.
It’s my hope that we’ll get to see how Wooten fares in AA right off the bat in ’09.
As for Romanski and Adams, all I know about them is their high draft status and they both didn’t fare all that well in their limited time this past summer. I’m basing my “ranking” on how they’ll help the big-league club, others might base their rankings on projectability.
It’s all subjective I guess!
by mjwelch11 on Dec 11, 2008 4:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I just find results from the couple months of play
that players have the July-August after they were drafted to be of extremely limited use in projecting guys.
I cannot fathom a way that Wooten is a better arm than Romanski or Adams.
He is an interesting pitcher, but he is still a one-pitch relief prospect… a demographic notoriously hard to look at. It isn’t a huge surprise that he carved up younger hitters.
by nms on Dec 11, 2008 4:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
well as a Brewers fan
I hope you are right, nms! :)
I definitely see your point, and maybe my gut feeling on Wooten is a hunch – but I’ve seen guys drafted in the 2nd and 4th rounds (Adams, Romanski) never amount to a hill of beans and guys drafted in the teens (Wooten) turn in solid ML careers.
Let’s pick this discussion up next August and see where we are…
by mjwelch11 on Dec 12, 2008 10:06 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Lawrie
Do people truly believe he’ll be able to stay at catcher?
The Dodgers won't win a playoff series until the Cool-a-Coo returns.
by mckeeno on Dec 10, 2008 2:02 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Wasn't he a SS in high school?
could be a 2b in the end
churchofbaseball.com
by MJMars on Dec 10, 2008 2:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Well
In the Olympics he was used OF/2B/C. Not sure about HS spots he played.
As a Brewers fan, knowing Lucroy is in the wings, I’d love to test him at 2nd Base. A spot Lawrie likes playing. If 2B goes ill, do the LaPorta and fine tune him at the Catcher spot with 2nd Base every now and then to test which works best. He’s extremely young, wants to be up in the majors in like a year and a half, and I think he’s got me attending a few games for the Timber-rattlers this coming season(if he’s sent to low A-ball to start).
As for Green, I’m excited to see what he, and Lucroy, can do in Double A next season away from that anti-hitter’s ballpark in Brevard.
by Lavender on Dec 10, 2008 2:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think the Brewers should keep him in one place as long as possible.
The Brewers system is already overflowing with guys with defensive liabilities who have been bumped from position to position…maybe if some of these guys were just left alone, they’d stay in one spot long enough to learn to play it.
I don't specifically articulate my motives, because that wouldn't travel as well as a boo does.
by KLSnow on Dec 10, 2008 2:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The problem isn't that they're moving them too early/often
It’s that they wait until AAA or the majors to move them off the position they had wishcasted them playing when drafted. If a guy like Braun had been playing LF for 3 or 4 years now instead of butchering plays at 3B, he’d probably be a better OF than he is now.
by mraver on Dec 10, 2008 9:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Lawrie
Is not going to be an MLB 2b. Period. No way.
He just doesn’t have that kind of athleticism, I’m saying that based on seeing him.. not just what I’ve heard.
by nms on Dec 10, 2008 10:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
do you think dan uggla has that kind of athleticism? his manager has written him into the lineup as a second baseman everyday for several years now.
by richieabernathy on Dec 11, 2008 11:19 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
yes
more than Lawrie certainly.
Uggla is a below-average to poor MLB 2b-man.
Lawrie just isn’t a 2b man. At all. I don’t see why that is so surprising.
I’ll go ahead and bet anyone that Lawrie doesn’t start 50 MLB games at 2b in the next 10 years…. hell he probably won’t even start 1 game there/
by nms on Dec 11, 2008 1:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Lawrie
Lawrie did play some SS in HS.
I don’t expect him to last as a catcher and I’m surprised they’re trying it… considering they have Salome and Lucroy as is. I agree with something BA said about Lawrie around draft time – his bat may be too advanced to be held back by learning a tough position like catcher. BA also said that scouts doubted that Lawrie would have the “temperament” to catch.
BA said he profiles better at 2B/3B and PG Crosschecker threw out a Biggio comp (C to 2B) but said Lawrie has more projectable power than Biggio.
by rdf8585 on Dec 10, 2008 3:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
How do you factor Fall/Winter Leagues into the equation?
Escobar had a nice season offensively in Huntsville, but in Venezuela he can’t hit the broad side of a barn (.229/.299/.313).
Salome had to be shut down with shoulder trouble in the AFL.
Jeffress throws smoke, but his career high in innings is 86. He threw 85 this season, then had to be shut down in the AFL due to shoulder fatigue.
All told, I like the list but I think it’s missing Hernan Iribarren (low upside, but close to being a big-league ready utility player) and new Brewer R.J. Swindle, who’s already 25 but has been lights out all the way up the ladder.
I don't specifically articulate my motives, because that wouldn't travel as well as a boo does.
by KLSnow on Dec 10, 2008 2:42 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I don't think you can really look at
winter leagues statistically… AT ALL. Maybe kinda sorta the AFL (but even then probably not really) but things like the Venezualan and Dominican winter leagues are such a 100% different thing. It would be one thing if a kid stepped up in one of those and dominated MLBers but a 20 yo SS hitting 229 is pretty common.
The atmosphere down there is just completely different and the talent level is so varied. Many MLBers are playing down there… and that isn’t a developmental league. It is play to win.
Its just far too different to look at statistically, not to mention the sample sizes are near meaningless
by nms on Dec 10, 2008 11:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
gillespie
is he ever going to get a chance? could be put up numbers anywhere close to Bay if given the chance?
by znyfan on Dec 10, 2008 6:03 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Odorizzi's upside
Think he could be a #1 starter?
by Bravesin07 on Dec 10, 2008 6:46 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Where would LaPorta and Brantley have fit in?
by Fundamentals on Dec 10, 2008 7:29 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Cole Gillespie
Jason Bay type = C+?
Never, Never, NEVER give up
by hero66 on Dec 10, 2008 8:59 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
that doesn't mean
he will be that good.
He is just that KIND of player. A LFer with a solid-average across the board game (except that Gillespie can’t throw)
by nms on Dec 10, 2008 11:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Heard some Brewers people talking today in Vegas...
They are pretty convinced that Escobar is their top prospect. Definite Gold Glover and perhaps even a multiple-time All-Star. They were really raving about his defense though. Apparently his range in the 5-6 hole is fantastic.
by speedchaser9 on Dec 10, 2008 9:38 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
He had a play in spring training (televised) that made me and apparently many others go “wow.” One of his minor league coaches was working as a base coach and when asked about it, said it was nothing special and that he did stuff like that all the time.
by Lovejoy on Dec 10, 2008 10:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Rogers/ Braddock
any news on Mark Rogers? him being a New England kid(Maine) it would be nice to see him get back. My guy for 2009 is Zach Braddock, I think he stays in Hi-A and pitches pretty well. I think he ends up as a bullpen guy in the end though
by NYSOX on Dec 11, 2008 9:06 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Christopher Dennis
I dont know anything about him..but his numbers look pretty good ..though in very low level
by NYSOX on Dec 11, 2008 9:52 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Odorizzi
On May 15, John posted his top ten prep arms for the draft. Odorizzi was not included.
Then BA posts a mock with Odorizzi ranked high and other posters comment that Odorizzi is most certainly in the top ten prep arms. So between May 15 and the draft, Jake Odorizzi became a “personal favorite” after being ranked behind Spruill and Sample? There are times to say you were behind on knowing about a guy and I think this is one of those times. Milwaukee was on Odorizzi way before Sickels was, so I don’t think the “thinking alike” idea holds much water.
by bereasonable on Dec 12, 2008 3:55 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Yawn
That’s a pretty dumb critique.
http://www.minorleagueball.com/2008/5/17/519689/john-s-2008-draft-board-as
Odo clocks in at #27 on the draft board on May 17.
27) Jake Odorizzi, RHP, Illinois HS: I was thinking about him as a second rounder but stock has risen dramatically lately and the more I study the more I like him.
by aCone419 on Dec 12, 2008 5:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
My point exactly
So in two days, he goes from not even a top ten prep arm to a projected 27th pick?
His rise was that dramatic in TWO DAYS? Posters, PG, BA all had a better read on Odorizzi , so you try to fall in line when you look around and see everyone else’s board?
This is supposed to be expert analysis?
by bereasonable on Dec 12, 2008 7:17 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
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