Updated Top 50 List
I'm also putting in expectations for all of the first 15, and other various picks after that.
1. Matt Wieters
Expected: I see a .290/365/490 rookie season, and 30+ home run seasons with a .300+ average in his peak seasons. Also with Gold Glove defense.
2. David Price
Expected: True ace potential, low 3 to high 2 ERA with 200 strikeouts in peak seasons.
3. Travis Snider
Expected: I see similar to Prince Fielder, with fewer walks. Maybe a .280 average with 40+ home runs a season.
4. Dexter Fowler
Expected: I'm really high on Fowler. Showing the amazing plate discipline and great average in AA makes me think he'll be amazing. Coors should just help his numbers more. I can see some .320/.410/500 peak seasons with 25 homers and 40 stolen bases, averaging about .300/.390/470 over his career. A true 5 tool player.
5. Jason Heyward
Expected: 900 OPS guy, 30-40 homers. Not as high on him as most on here.
6. Cameron Maybin
Expected: Grady Sizemore with fewer walks and a little more speed?
7. Mike Moustakas
Expected: 35-40 homers, .280/.350/550 peak season.
8. Madison Bumgarner
Expected: Low 3's ERA, 180-220 strikeouts a year
9. Colby Rasmus
Expected: I'm low on him. I see 30 homers, 20 SB, and a .270-.280 average
10. Trevor Cahill
Expected: Groundball pitcher, ERA around 3.25 and 160 strikeouts
11. Rick Porcello
Expected: Who knows if he'll be a strikeout pitcher or a groundball pitcher. I can see anywhere from 140-220 strikeouts a year, with a mid 3's to high 2's ERA
12. Chris Tillman
Expected: Mid 3's ERA with a strikeout an inning.
13. Neftali Feliz
Expected: Mid to low 3's ERA with over a strikeout an inning as a starter or mid 1's ERA with 100 strikeouts a year as a closer.
14. Lars Anderson
Expected: I'm high on him. I can see a .300/400/500 career average with 25-30 homers a year. Should anchor the middle of the Boston lineup. Could develop even more power. I guess we'll find out.
15. Matt LaPorta
Expected: I had him higher until I saw that BA rated Santana over him. I still see he can hit .280 with a good amount of walks and 40 homers a year. Almost definitely a DH though.
16. Pedro Alvarez
17. Mike Stanton
Expected: I'm high on him. He was 18 in low A and hit 39 homers. He's an athlete and I can see him stealing more over the first few years in the majors. He could hit 280 with 40 homers and 10-15 SB over his peak seasons. If he does this again I can see him top 10
18. Brett Anderson
19. Josh Vitters
20. Jhoulys Chacin
21. Andrew McCutchen
22. Derek Holland
23. Thomas Hanson
24. Tim Alderson
25.Carlos Santana
26. Jesus Montero
27. Jarrod Parker
28. Eric Hosmer
29. Logan Morrison
30. Mat Gamel
Expectations: He was due to be a top 10 prospect over the first half of the year. I think he'll regain some of that luster over this year. 300/360/500 potential with 25 homers and a bunch of doubles each year with terrible defense.
31.Brian Matusz
32. Jordan Zimmermann
33. Carlos Carrasco
34. Buster Posey
35. Angel Villalona
36. Brett Cecil
Expectations: A poor man's Brandon Webb. Mid 3's ERA with 140-160 K's and a high groundball rate.
37. Tim Beckham
38. Ben Revere
39. Wade Davis
40. Gordon Beckham
41. Wilmer Flores
Expectations: Anyone who hits well in A ball as a 16 year old deserves to be on here this high. Who knows what he'll hit yet, give him a year and we'll start to get a better view of him.
42. Fernando Martinez
Expectations: I don't think he's as good as everyone thinks. 25 homer peaks with a 290 average and bunches of doubles.
43. Jeremy Hellickson
44. Carlos Triunfel
45. Brett Wallace
46. Tyler Flowers
Expectations: 20-25 homers, 280 average and a 390 or so OBP. Moves to 1B
47. Freddie Freeman
48. Yonder Alonso
49. Elvis Andrus
50. James McDonald
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17 comments
Comments
No Justin Smoak?
You have Alonzo,Posey,Matsuz, Hosmer and Alonso and no Smoak?
Thats with him arguably having the best debut in both regular season and fall leagues of all of those guys…
by laxtonto on
Dec 1, 2008 9:39 PM EST
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Oops
Sorry. Forgot Smoak.
He’d probably be about in the 20-30 range.
by cwhitman412 on
Dec 1, 2008 9:44 PM EST
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Smoak
Put him at 25 and push everyone else down one.
by cwhitman412 on
Dec 1, 2008 9:45 PM EST
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You have some pretty impressive expectations for guys you’re “low” on. Heyward and Rasmus, for example. Though, i’m not saying you’re being unreasonable in either direction.
by sunking1056 on
Dec 1, 2008 10:07 PM EST
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+1
"If you hit .440 with 20 bombs, you don't have to do s---. You don't have to bring a glove to practice, just hit and leave whenever you want. You can bring a 40 and smoke a cigarette and call me from the parking lot asking me what time the game is, and I'll tell you. You can even say 'F--- you, Steve!' Actually, don't say that, that wouldn't be very nice." -Steve Friend, Head Coach, Chabot College Gladiators Baseball
by flipgatey3 on
Dec 2, 2008 2:40 PM EST
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You really
have some interesting expectations…. Was Pujols a disappointment in your eyes?
by METSMETSMETS on
Dec 1, 2008 10:48 PM EST
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i hope one day
to have a child who is good enough he can win the Dexter Fowler award, for most outstanding player of his generation
by IHateMitchMustain on
Dec 1, 2008 11:06 PM EST
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i hope one day
to have a child as good as mitch mustain
"If you hit .440 with 20 bombs, you don't have to do s---. You don't have to bring a glove to practice, just hit and leave whenever you want. You can bring a 40 and smoke a cigarette and call me from the parking lot asking me what time the game is, and I'll tell you. You can even say 'F--- you, Steve!' Actually, don't say that, that wouldn't be very nice." -Steve Friend, Head Coach, Chabot College Gladiators Baseball
by flipgatey3 on
Dec 2, 2008 2:41 PM EST
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"I expect Heyward to OPS .900"
“I’m not as high on him as most”
by mraver on
Dec 2, 2008 12:49 AM EST
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your expectations are beyond absurd.
Your #15 prospect is going to hit 40 homers in the big leagues?
Guess how many players hit 40 HR’s this year? TWO.
And you have 5 guys in your Top 17 prospects expected to do so.
I’m not bashing you, just trying to open your eyes to it.
I like the list, but your numbers are video game stats. Lars Anderson is going to have a career AVERAGE OPS of .900? Just temper the numbers a bit unless you expect the 2009 Prospect class to be, oh, the best ever
by loop on
Dec 2, 2008 10:16 AM EST
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Not video game stats...
just the expectations of a guy who grew up with baseball in the late-90’s. 40 has become much more rare in the past 5 years.
by slamcactus on
Dec 2, 2008 11:29 AM EST
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Sorry For All
I’m 15 and this is my first year doing lists. Hopefully all your help will influence my rankings to be better in years past.
by cwhitman412 on
Dec 2, 2008 2:48 PM EST
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No need to apologize.
people are just being snarky. It’s kind of a requirement around here. The rankings make sense, you’re just a little bullish on everyone, which is something half the people around here fall prey to.
by slamcactus on
Dec 2, 2008 3:20 PM EST
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Yeah
Last time I did a list, people wanted more information instead of just a list of names, so I decided to see what I think of as best case.
You always expect what you think is the best case. If I didn’t think these prospects would do something I wouldn’t have put them on the list.
by cwhitman412 on
Dec 2, 2008 4:28 PM EST
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i know how it is to post a list, people do get nasty. I wasn’t trying to be nasty with my comments above, just trying to open your eyes to the projections you had for some of those players. I always enjoy comments next to each player, rather than just flat lists. Oh to be 15 again too, by the way.
by loop on
Dec 2, 2008 9:02 PM EST
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2 Cents
Vitters too high, that would probably be my only gripe.
Also a lot more of a realistic ranking for Posey than most, I think the community has him a wee bit overrated.
Rios is the next Juan Gonzales, thats right, I said it.
by KaoticKlown on
Dec 3, 2008 6:59 AM EST
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