Hi John, nice list and one I generally agree with.

My question is in regards to Nick Hagadone. The way you have him graded is generally in line with the way I’ve seen him described elsewhere – good stuff but health was a problem. Of course, as many of us know, baseball america had nothing but glowing language for him in grading him as the Sox’ third best prospect. Can you reconcile how you see him with how they see him?

Seems like a fine pitcher, but it also seems like the hype around him is his left handedness. Do his GB/FB tendencies in college, mechanics, and overall lack of overwhelmingness (I just made that word up) give pause for this guy’s upside?

Now that it looks like he’ll not only sign with the Red Sox, he’ll start 2009 in the minors, whereabouts might he rank? The Boston Globe said it’s up in the air as far as whether he’ll be a starter or reliever, but working in the low-90’s, he’s been compared to a mid-to-high first round pick… and Shigetoshi Hasegawa.

sources: http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3736390 and http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/articles/2008/12/01/tazawa_agrees_to_3_year_red_sox_contract/

it’s a small sample after all, but it does seem like you “love” a lot of Red Sox prospects every year – Lowrie, Ellsbury, Lars (who Callis loves too of course), Bowden (who received a better grade than Joba. I think it’s just coincidence more than anything.

My belief is that a lot of these are “good, not great” types with high floors and good (not superstar) ceilings, and you seem to gravitate towards those safer bets. My Yankees on the other hand are filled with boom or bust arms like Horne, Brackman, Garcia, De La Rosa, etc… who have top potential but are hard to grade. Maybe it’s selection bias but I have noticed those trends with the two teams. For this same reason I think you underrated Hagadone, I agreed with BA’s call there.

Purely in terms of expected value (in a rough sense, I’m sure BP and such have done much more sophisticated work), a player with a small change to become a star should be equal to someone with a fair change of being a backup or mediocre regular). However, if a team has sufficient financial resources, the best move is probably to load up on the former. You know, throw them against a wall, see what sticks.

Any thoughts on Jon Still? Looked to have a great bat in Lancaster, ok defense, but great overall leadership skills.

Casey Kelly showed his tools in one game this year and it was the one I went to. Hit 2 doubles in the gaps, showing opposite field power, runs very fast, and has a great arm. To me he looked like a young Derek Jeter. What do you think of that assumption John?

Have you seen Ryan Lavarnway? I saw some footage of him and read some reports on the web and listened to a few scouts and he really seemed like a larger Youk to me. I was a bit surprised at the lack of discussion on him but of course he did have a very disappointing debut. I’m just wondering if you or perhaps any Red Sox fans or Yale baseball fans have anything they could add in detail about him. I seriously doubt he can stick at C but still the bat seemed intriguing to me before the draft.

is how interesting their grade C guys are.

I have to admit, the list looked pretty solid. Great job. Nitpicking (which is exactly what it is), I might have considered a slightly higher or lower grade (ex: B vs. B- or vice versa) for the following:

Lower – Lars, Bowden, Westmoreland, Daeges
Higher – Hagadone, Kelly, Lin, Exposito, Middlebrooks

Look at all those B-s.

I must admit that I am new to these prospect rankings. Where is the age cutoff? or is there one? at 26 in AAA for the last three years does Chris Carter not make the cut anymore despite spectacular batting numbers? Or did he change organizations when I wasn’t looking . . . I will admit inexperience here and simply ask for an explanation. Thanks in advance.

Just out of curiosity. Is there a cutoff line for when a prospect has graduated? I notice Masterson, Buchholz, and Lowrie are no longer on the list. Is there a number of innings or at bats That makes them not a prospect anymore? Thanks.

Anyone got mor details on his skillset or willing to speculate on the likely progression plans for him?

Was he excluded for the same reasons as Carter? He was one of the Padre’s best prospects just before the trade and can still develop more due to the different developmental curve for catchers?

Felix Doubront. He was really good in A ball at 20 and looked just as good in his promotion to A+. Really bounced back strong from an awful injury marred season in 07. I realize he’s not overpowering and hasn’t done anything at a high level, but a 20 year old lefty having a great season at an age appropriate level with more than 1 K/IP seems deserving of a C+ to me.

I’m just curious what people thought about his future in general. Obviously, it’ll be hard for him to move up in the Red Sox organization.

I don’t buy the power he showed in the Cal League as “real”, but I buy that he has some power in that frame that’s untapped. His discipline needs to improve a bit. His defense did improve this past year.

I remember reading that his glove improved this year. What type of future do people see? I still think it’s more a utility level player, but there does seem to be some positive signs for him, particularly the decline in the strikeout ratio this past year.

Callis says he’s leaning towards 7th, between Kelly and Westmoreland.

Also, reports are that Kelly will pitch next year until he hits his IP limit, then play SS.