Community Prospect List: #41

I’m thinking McDonald, Vitters, Alonso

unless Hellickson shows up here somewhere.

I also went Hellickson, but I don’t think Alonso looks out of place. I’d rather have a guy like Alonso that has a good eye, than a big power, high k guy like Carter. Those guys just get exposed as they move up levels.

And his power’s only good, even for a MI. The big concern for me is his plate command – if he can get his K rate back to what it was the preceding two years, and start walking a little bit more, then he could very well be an above average major league SS as soon as next year. Otherwise, he seems to be a marginal starting SS. I’m generally optimistic about him, so I lean towards the first possibility. I think he’s a reasonable pick now, but I’d be happier if there was a better.

There are some suggesting that Motte may be a better pitcher NEXt year because of his better control….but thus far, he doesn’t really have the stuff that Perez has – his fastball is great, but he lacks the wicked secondary offering that Perez has.

Cards fans are psyched that Motte, a converted catcher, came on the way he did last year, but I think they’re a little irrationally exuberant if they think his upside is as great as Perez’s. He may be a little safer, but that about it….

for rookie eligibility.

And although there is also a limit for service time, we’ve never used it in our criteria on this annual list.

He’s eligible.

And we’re ignoring service time on this list.

So he’s eligible.

I went with Brignac

They’re pretty much the same.

Freeman does have the better walk rate, but at age 18 in A-ball, I;m not going to take a career 1st baseman over a slick 3B who can hit based just on that.

Kupe’s point about Dominguez being thought of as the bext fielder/worst hitter of the Vitters/Moose/Ahrens/Dominguez group is a valid point here….but may also be an argument in Dominguez’s favor, since he seemed to have figured it out sooner than expected.

for me too.

Burgess was 19 in 2008, and played at A/A+.

At age-19, Snider was in A-ball. So age to level, they are about as close as you can get. Similar draft position, fire hydrant bodies, same fielding position, and both are high-school draftees that has a full season of A ball at age 19. So far, mighty dang similar.

Now, their walk rates are also eerily similar, and their ISOP also quite close. Both have strikeout problems, with Burgess’s being slightly worse, but they are certainly within shouting distance. You say that Burgess has a BA concern, but don’t forget that the criticism of Snider through this year was an unsustainably high BABIP and thus BA, given his own K rate problems.

Both could flame out if they don’t correct the K rate problem. But both have much more in common than they have differences, and saying that Snider’s numbers are much different than Burgess just isn’t true – at least, not thru age-19..

Snider strikes out plenty as well.

Burgess is another guy who’s being pretty underrated. He’s not a prototypical hulking slugger who gets it done through brute strength – he’s all bat speed and loft. The average should come up as the Ks come down, and with his decent eye at the plate, fast bat and youth, I see no reason why he can’t or won’t improve on that.

He’s a teenager. Why rush to conclusions?

Too early for Flores but he should be in the top 50 IMO.
Holt and Niese should be in the top 100, but in the 80s or 90s.
Evans has too many AB.
Carp is top 150, but not 100.

I agree that Jennings needs to demonstrate the ability to make it through a year (at least to the degree that Orlando Hudson ever does). But comparing a guy to Snelling isn’t nice. Snelling doesn’t just get injured; he’s the baseball equivalent of the law school hypothetical of the guy who gets shot while falling from a building.