It’s an interesting post, and while I don’t see Oakland getting involved, I’d imagine that something like this would probably entice the Padres enough to make the deal:

Padres get: Carlos Gonzalez, Mazzaro, G. Gonzalez, Escobar, Flowers and G. Hernadez
Oakland gets: A. Gonzalez
Braves get: Peavy and K. Greene

The Padres are very unlikely to move A. Gonzalez even in a package like this. HE’s a San Diego kid, signed for nothing and is a solid defender (not Gold Glove caliber, but he’ll take it) and great power hitter in a horrible power park. He’s more valuable than Peavy based on performance and contract. That said, if we’re dreaming on a blockbuster, here’s the only way it gets done, as I see it. The Padres plug Blanks in at 1b, Escobar at ss, CarGo in CF, and add G. Gonzalez, Mazzaro and Flowers as upgrades to their system. Don’t forget, as importantly, they shed 3 big contracts for 2009 and forward in Peavy, Gonzalez and Greene, and they don’t take any back. That’s as important to the process, unfortunately for Padre fans. The A’s deal some depth for a power hitting 1b who is young, injury free and cost controlled, and they still have enough OF help to fill their lineup (Cunningham, Buck, Sweeney). The Braves get Peavy, and they get a ss to replace Escobar (and to satisfy Peavy’s misgivings about the lack of a major league ss).
All this said, I don’t see how the Padres give up A. Gonzalez here. We’re speculating, however, and this is how a deal like that goes down, and is equitable all around.
Just my take. I’ll suffer the slings and arrows now…
JAS

completely untrue – and supported by the fact that heyward and hanson are not up for discussion and escobar is

He is just ok outside of Petco, he doesn’t go deep into games, and has an injury history, tell me what’s untouchable about that?

they would still need to give up a third player like Reyes or Morton. They are not accepting the deal now with Hernandez in it because it is not enough. Replacing him with Shafer would make it a good enough package to get the trade done.

The sending of money helps atlanta, and atlanta is not the one coming out empty. They are giving up Escobar/Flowers/Gorkys/Other for Peavy and Crosby. Far as I’m concerned its probably too sided in their favor as well (but not as much as the A’s). So, the money doesn’t help unless it convinces Atlanta throw in 2 prospects back to SD.

Right now the Pads are desperate. Of their everyday players, only a couple may have long term potential (Kouz/Gonzo/Headley/Gerut/Hairston) and only one plus SP (C. Young). Only a few of the other people on their roster have a chance to be anything (H. Bell, C. Haeger in that park, M. Antonelli, C. Meredith). So, Pads need 1) OF’s 2) MI’s 3) SP. Towers is good at building bullpens from scrap arms.

So, under that analysis, Devine does not have as much value to them. They don’t need the bullpen arms. Also, Doolittle I don’t think is what they are looking for. If you said Cunningham instead of Barton, then maybe thats more in the ballpark (depending on their evaluation of Cunningham). But, if they are trading Peavy and/or Gonzo, they are going to need young impact players at positions they don’t already have covered. Thats the middle infield and starting pitching (mostly) and possibly the OF.

Also, if i’m the pads, I’m looking for players that do particularly well in their park. That would be gap to gap hitters, considering the size of the park. Pure power hitters won’t be nearly as effective at petco as in other stadiums. For starters, they don’t necessarily need the best ones, although they probably would want at least one impact starter in return, and I don’t think Gio or Mazzaro or anything the Braves are giving them (cause it aint Hanson) is an impact starter.

This is what I would think would get a deal done (cause i figured it needed another post)

Braves get: Peavy, Crosby
A’s get: A-Gonzo
Pads get: Gorkys/Escobar/Flowers/[Rohrbaugh or Morton] AND
                  [G. Gonzalez or V. Mazzaro]/Cunningham/[B.anderson or Cahill]

I think that is more of a realistic framework. In this scenario for Peavy (top 5 starter) and a-gon (top 5 [arguably] 1B), Pads get 1SP w/ #1/#2 potential, 2 SP with #3/#4 potential, a starting SS, a good OF (cunningham), another possible starting OF (who can play with Hunter and Kulbacki), and a C prospect. That is more likely to get it done.

For me, the issue isn’t so much on the return for Peavy as the return for Gonzalez. Peavy’s value is somewhat ascertainable considering he can determine where he goes and there is some acknowledgment of his injury history v. his potential to be the #1 starter teams crave. On the other hand, top 5 1B who have few holes in their game are missing value. Cain for Fielder gives some idea, but I would say that Gonzalez is a more complete player than Fielder and more established.

I will say, though, that I’m really surprised to here that Atlanta would be willing to part with Escobar and not get Greene back. It seems like such an obvious move for both teams, plus it would probably cost Atlanta less in terms of prospects because Greene is basically a salary dump for the Pads at this point.

because of their potential. If Hanson were to reach his potential he would be able to get someone like Escobar and another good player. If Heyward reaches his potential he will command a package similiar to what the Rangers got for Mark Texeira. He could probably get more because of position. Escobar will never get more than 1 good minor leaguer or a back of the rotation starter. Even right now their values are about the same. I am sure if the Barves offered Hanson instead of Esobar the Padres would take the deal right away.

It is not insane, it is the way people value prospects in todays game. 5 years ago even the best prospects would not have as much value as Escobar, but today teams would rather trade Escobar then any prospect that could be a top 30 prospect. Besides, Atlanta seems to be pretty comfortable with their shortstop situation outside of Escobar. They could put in Lillbridge, trade for someone else like a Wilson, or sign someone like Cabrera and would not lose much in terms of defensive and offensive production out of their shortstop position.

I’d take him over every SS in baseball except Hanley Ramirez.

Peavy is an ace who is under control for the next 4 years at a rate that seems reasonable in this market (about $15M per yr). He’s clearly worth significantly more than Escobar, a cost controlled average SS.

If Hanson and Heyward were so worthless, they wouldn’t be enough to deal for Peavy either. The reason everyone keeps bringing those two up is because they are considered that much of a sure thing, despite having not yet seen the majors.

That’s why the other Braves prospects aren’t really in the same class, and aren’t going to be enough. Freeman, who gets badly over rated on this board, has huge bust potential. To put up numbers in the SAL, you don’t really even need to know how to hit a CB. And Freeman’s only tool is his bat.

With Heyward, at least you know he has elite tools.

And I’m not sold on top-10. Escobar ranked 18th last year in win shares amongst SS, per hardballtimes. BP has him 11th in runs above replacement for the position. Fangraphs has him 12th in runs created. He is in his prime for the next 3-4 years, so I would maybe project him as top 10 for that time (only just). But he’s not that unique. He’s pretty much a median starting SS.

Offensively they did quite well. But please don’t even try to make an argument that they were satisfactory defensively. Would you rather have some mixture of Hairston/Gerut/Venable roaming CF, or Colby Rasmus?

Also, I take issue with your comment that Ced Hunter is a future stud. That kid has a long ways to go before I start calling him a future stud. He has posted a respectable BA the last 2 years, but has posted an IsoP of .100 and .140 the last two years, so it’s not like he’s much of a power hitter. And he only has moderate speed to boot. Right now he is just another empty average guy, which is great for a 4th OF but nothing close to studly.

CF is most definitely a need for SD.