Community Prospect List: #37
by King Billy Royal on Nov 7, 2008 11:33 AM EST
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PrintAfter 242 votes Jordan Shafer has been declared the winner with 24%. Wade Davis came in second place with 13%. Freddie Freeman, and WIlmer Flores will be removed from the poll as they received less then 5%. Chris Carter, Logan Morrison, and Gordon Beckham will be added to the poll. If you wish to vote other just list the person below. This way we're not wasting a spot.
1. MATT WIETERS - C (Baltimore)
2. DAVID PRICE - SP (Tampa Bay)
3. JASON HEYWARD - OF (Atlanta)
4. TRAVIS SNIDER - OF (Toronto)
5. MADISON BUMGARNER - SP (San Francisco)
6. COLBY RASMUS - OF (St. Louis)
7. CAMERON MAYBIN - OF (Florida)
8. TREVOR CAHILL - SP (Oakland)
9. NEFTALI FELIZ - SP (Texas)
10. MATT LAPORTA - 1B/OF/DH (Cleveland)
11. MIKE MOUSTAKAS - 3B (Kansas City)
12. TIM ALDERSON - SP (San Francisco)
13. PEDRO ALVAREZ - 3B (Pittsburgh)
14. RICK PORCELLO - SP (Detroit)
15. DEXTER FOWLER - OF (Colorado)
16. BRETT ANDERSON - SP (Oakland)*
17. DEREK HOLLAND - SP (Texas)
18. ANDREW McCUTCHEN - OF (Pittsburgh)
19. BUSTER POSEY - C (San Francisco)
20. CHRIS TILLMAN - SP (Baltimore)
21. LARS ANDERSON - 1B (Boston)
22. JUSTIN SMOAK - 1B (Texas)
23. THOMAS HANSON - SP (Atlanta)
24. ELVIS ANDRUS - SS (Texas)
25. ANGEL VILLALONA - 1B (San Francisco)
26. JHOULYS CHACIN - SP (Colorado)
27. BRIAN MATUSZ - SP (Baltimore)
28. ERIC HOSMER - 1B (Kansas City)
29. TIM BECKHAM - SS (Tampa)
30. MAX RAMIREZ - C/1B (Texas)
31. JARROD PARKER - SP (Arizona)
32. MICHAEL STANTON - OF (Florida)
33. MATT GAMEL - 3B (Milwaukee)
34. JESUS MONTERO - C (New York)
35. BRETT WALLACE - 3B (St. Louis)
36. JORDAN SHAFER - OF (Atlanta)
CANDIDATES - Fernando Martinez, Josh Vitters, Wade Davis, Carlos Triunfel, Carlos Santana, James McDonald, Yonder Alonso, Chris Carter, Logan Morrison, Gordon Beckham
TESTERS - Greg Halman, Michael Saunders, Ben Revere, Michael Bowden, Austin Jackson, Philippe Aumont, Jeremy Hellickson, Jordan Zimmermann, Jose Tabata, Matt Dominguez, Alcides Escobar, Carlos Carrasco, Brett Cecil, Freddie Freeman, Wilmer Flores, Reid Brignac
Please post more ideas for testers and we will consider them
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Logan Morrison
Until he’s on. 38 doubles, 13hrs and Batting Title in the pitcher friendly FSL and is currently tearing up the AFL with 5hrs displaying his power outside of the FSL. John also remarked about how impressed he was with Morrison when watching him in Arizona.
http://www.projectprospect.com/files/imagecache/content_image/files/media/content/LoganMorrison.gif
McDonald!!!
The guy will be in the major leagues this year, and has a solid chance of being above average even during his rookie campaign.
It’s tragic he’s behind hacks in Low-A
I'll warm up with you anytime
-1
I’m a Dodger fan and I can’t see how you can rank him ahead of Wade Davis who is younger, better loved by scouts and has a 5 mph advantage on his fastball.
The Dodgers won't win a playoff series until the Cool-a-Coo returns.
Sorry, Wade Davis does not have a 5 MPH advantage
Wade Davis has been very inconsistent with his velocities all year. He seems to have lost some heat from last year.
McDonald generally sits around 88-91, and Davis 90-92.
Too many
Single-A kids get love on this list.
People are overhyping everyone.
I mean, I was giving F-Mart a B- 2 years ago and now everyone’s saying how he was overhyped. He was way overhyped, but he’s beginning to make up for it and everyone is hyping up some new Single-A kid.
Being at a higher level is very important.
Yonder Alonso
21 years old
First round top 10 draft pick
Great Plate Discipline
Great College Resume at a high level program
Hitting .305/.430/.500 in the Hawaiian Winter League currently with 18 walks/18 strikeouts.
Wade Davis
And no, I don’t have some snazzy pick to make him seem more exciting.
Wade Needs No Picture
The name Wade Davis screams MLB READY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Nov 7, 2008 12:42 PM EST up reply actions
The later Rounds getting tough
Voting tends to be spread out across more guys.
Voted Santana, ultimately
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
+1
gotta go with the catcher here, next is morrison
I heard Tim Lincecum will win 1 Cy Young & 11 Tim Lincecums. Question is, how many Cole Hamels will he win?
by the pinstripes on Nov 7, 2008 2:22 PM EST up reply actions
Carter? Really?
There’s at least 4 or 5 guys on here I like more than Carter. Maybe more.
I voted for Morrison.
Voted Davis
I like Carter but I’d probably have Cardenas and Gio above him just from the A’s
Pinstripes
I will not be around tonight to start the next poll so if you are around can you please take care of it.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Nov 7, 2008 2:27 PM EST reply actions
yes
i just sent you an e-mail prior to reading this. i’ll take care of the a.m. post as well. expect it around 7 or 8 eastern time tonight as i’m planning on having a beer or 10 directly after work. this week was brutal in every way. glad it’s over!
I heard Tim Lincecum will win 1 Cy Young & 11 Tim Lincecums. Question is, how many Cole Hamels will he win?
by the pinstripes on Nov 7, 2008 3:48 PM EST up reply actions
John Sickels thoughts on Carter
I don’t see how Carter is getting all this support. Yes he has power and walks going for him but not much else. He strikes out WAY too often, can’t field, and won’t hit for average. Here is John’s assesment:
Chris Carter was drafted in the 15th round by the White Sox out of high school in Las Vegas in 2005. He hit .286/.350/.485 with 10 homers for Bristol in the Appy League in 2005 after signing. His defense at third base drew very mixed reviews, many projecting a move to first base eventually, and his plate discipline was shaky. I gave him a Grade C in the 2006 book, noting his power potential but that he had work to do.
Promoted to Great Falls in the Pioneer League in 2006, Carter hit .299/.398/.570. A brief trial in the Sally League went poorly due to excessive strikeouts, but he looked good in the Pioneer, doubling his walk rate compared to 2005. I raised him to Grade C+, noting his long-term power potential but being concerned about his batting average against better pitching. He was a first baseman by the end of this season.
Carter hit .291/.333/.532 with 25 homers, 67 walks, and 112 strikeouts in 467 at-bats for Kannapolis in the Sally League in 2007. As you know, he was traded to Arizona then on to Oakland over the winter. I gave him a Grade B+ in the 2008 book, due to the rapid improvement in his strike zone judgment.
2008 has been interesting. Carter hit .259/.361/.569 with 39 homers, 77 walks, and 156 strikeouts in 506 at-bats for Stockton in the California League. HIs strikeout rate shot way up compared to 2007, but he maintained a high walk rate, and obviously the power production is impressive. I’d still maintain him as a B+/B prospect heading into the off-season, but there are some issues here we need to examine.
First, at age 21 Carter is still quite young. He has “old player’s skills”…power, plate discipline, high strikeouts, and players like that often peak early and then fade. But even accounting for that, he is likely 3-4 years away from his skill peak.
Two, defense. This looks like it is a big problem. Carter got in 41 games at third base this year, fielding .837 with a 1.88 range factor, obviously unacceptable. At first base he posted a .974 fielding percentage and made 10 errors in 40 games. In the outfield he got into 14 games in right field, with a .909 fielding percentage and a 0.71 range factor. If this doesn’t spell born DH I don’t know what does.
Third, strikeouts. I am not overly paranoid about strikeouts, especially if the player in question also draws walks. But 156 in 137 games is excessive, and at this point I have to very much wonder how much contact he will make against better pitching. The caveat here is that Carter HAS shown the ability to make adjustments before, developing much better place discipline at higher levels than he showed in rookie ball. And given his youth, I am reasonably confident in his ability to adjust.
All told, Carter is highly intiguing and one of the best power hitters in the minors. But I want to see what he does in Double-A before going higher than B+, and even a B+ assumes he will adjust and hit enough to be a DH in the majors. You can make a good case that he should be a plain B.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Nov 7, 2008 2:32 PM EST reply actions
+1
this was my complaint about Stanton. Yes, he is young, but he is K’g a ton, which does not bode well moving up to higher levels.
I just find it funny....
That a borderline B/B+ prospect is getting support for #37. I just wish that more people voting for Carter would post so we could understand the rational.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Nov 7, 2008 2:38 PM EST up reply actions
"Old player's skills" are a non-issue here
Even players with old players’ skills very rarely collapse before age 30. The only really relevant part of a player’s value as a prospect is what value he will provide his team before he hits free agency. After that point, anyone can hire his services.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Disagree
It isn’t like we are ranking these prospects on how good they will be for their team. We are ranking them for who will be the best player. I would much rather rank a player that I thought we have a long productive career then a guy who is only good around for 8 years.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Nov 7, 2008 2:50 PM EST up reply actions
Shrug
I’m absolutely ranking them that way. Ranking them any other way is an academic exercise that has no real world application. The value of prospects is entirely contained in years where they are under team control and paid less than market value— and it’s disproportionately contained in their first 3 years, to boot, which is one reason why I hate prospects like Carlos Gomez and Elvis Andrus who look like they’ll take forever to get around to generating acceptable offense.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
I can understand that....
Everyone ranks prospects for different reasons. I disagree but understand from where you are coming. I personally am more concerned with trying to figure out who the best player is long term. I am not concerned with ‘real world application’ because when I watch baseball I am not thinking about that. I am just enjoying the product on the field and watching great atheletes play the greatest game. That is why when I rank prospects I simply choose the best available player be it on offense, defense, etc.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Nov 7, 2008 2:59 PM EST up reply actions
good points
I don’t vote based on whether a player is gonna hit more hiomers because he’ll be playing home games in Colorado or Philly, or how valuable he’ll be for 3 years or whatever. Just who is the better player, although often it is apples and oranges and those factors weigh in.
Carter has huge power and patience. I can see some voting for him. The surprise here is how close it was and then BOOM. There had been very little support for carter before, although I know Paul wanted him on the ballot. he didn’t do too well the first few times.
The reason why I'm here is that this site is an offshoot, or adjunct if you will, of Athletics Nation
My primary interest is analyzing Oakland’s team, prospects, chances, etc. That has a fair amount of spillover into other areas of baseball— but when I look at Chris Carter, or Brett Anderson, or any other prospect for that matter, I’m asking myself “which of these guys is [if he found his way into Oakland’s system, and assuming he isn’t blocked at the MLB level] going to win the A’s the most games?” On this poll, I happened to think it was Santana.
For reasons which should be moderately obvious, I don’t really spend a lot of time worrying about whether Prospect X is going to continue to be good beyond his seventh season.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
I agree with that
There are lots of different standards you can use.
My favorite simple standard though is, if I were a GM, and had to choose between two guys, say I’m making a trade, and I have to deal one guy and get to keep the other, which guy would I keep?
Of course, even there, I suppose it depends which team you are considering. As an NL fan, I might therefore be more inclined to complain about all of these DH types ranking so highly; they wouldn’t be that valuable to my team.
Carter v. Morrison
I think its a somewhat legitimate comparison to make considering both are being considered at this point. Morrison played at the same level (FSL v. CAL) in a more pitching heavy environment. In doing so, they put up similar OPS resulting lines (.259/.361/.569 v. .332/.402/.494). So, Morrison is the better contact hitter, as also evidenced that he struck out nearly half as much and hit for a significantly better average. Morrison also doesn’t have the defensive issues as Carter. Plus, if Morrison was in a better hitter’s environment (like the CAL league), who knows if some of his 38 doubles would instead have been home runs, hence increasing his slugging percentage.
The direct comparison between the two, at this stage of their careers, shows that Morrison is clearly the more complete hitter and complete player. I can’t see a good reason to rank Carter over Morrison, unless there are some that value .250-.270 hitters with 40+ potential more than .280-.300 with 30+ potential who plays significantly better defense.
You are right
That is a very good write up upon comparison for the two of them, giving my vote to Morrison over Carter.
didn't vote for him
but monster power with patience has value, and I don’t think John goes very far before the A- turns to B+ in his list. But yeah, I suppose if he is maybe a B he doesn’t belong yet. Perhaps we have some more, uh, Bay Area balloting going on. :) Just kidding mind you. There was a big clamor to get him back on the ballot.
Carter
a B+ prospect is not out of line for no.37. Even if John considers him borderline, others here obviously look at his patience and power and see something special. I wouldn’t have this high either but I don’t think it is as big of a deal as you are making out.
The A’s prospect I would like to see on this list is Cardenas
Jason Donald
Is more likely than at least half the hitters on the list to make something of himself, and he’s not even a tester. Same goes for Aaron Cunningham.
-1
I don’t think Donald’s a safer bet as a hitter unless he can stay a middle infielder in the majors, and even then, he’s not a superstar. I’m not confident enough that he’ll stay up the middle.
Joe Randa
just a sorta limited power 3b if he ends there kinda comp. Donald is likely a little better then that.
Why not?
He’s been consistant powerwise, BABIP-wise, has decent speed…
Honestly I think he can hit .300/.380/.480 on a good MLB year, and it certainly isn’t out of the realm of belief. Lots of people believe Jordan Schafer is nothing more than a platoon outfielder and he’s already on the list while Donald remains not even a tester.
I'd ask for a Jake Arrieta tester
As I have him mid 40s, but I doubt he’d get much support with guys like Davis, F-Mart, Triunfel and Vitters still on the board.
My best game plan is to sit on the bench and call out specific instructions like 'C'mon Boog,' 'Get ahold of one, Frank,' or 'Let's go, Brooks.' -Earl Weaver
ballot stuffing again
geez. there is a dead-tie and just like this morning along comes 10 votes for Carter in less than a couple mins. Didn’t this happen with Brett Anderson too?
Whats with the conspiracy theories.
"With 16-year-old Dominican righty Michel Inoa in tow, Gio Gonzalez improving at Triple-A and lefty Brett Anderson carving up Double-Abatters along with Simmons and Trevor Cahill, Oakland’s pitching depthis officially the envy of baseball." - BaseballAmerica.com
It's not paranoid delusion
If you’ve watched how these polls have gone, there’s often a strange burst for a player who’s unpopular in the comments, getting up to a couple of dozen votes in just a couple of minutes.
WADE DAVIS STUFFING!!!!
See I can do it to.
"With 16-year-old Dominican righty Michel Inoa in tow, Gio Gonzalez improving at Triple-A and lefty Brett Anderson carving up Double-Abatters along with Simmons and Trevor Cahill, Oakland’s pitching depthis officially the envy of baseball." - BaseballAmerica.com
STUFFING
There are three pretty good smoking guns for stuffing:
1) A player sees a big spike in votes from teh prior poll. In Carter’s case, the community in here didn’t even have him on the last poll. It would be very, very unusual for our group as a whole to miss the boat so badly on Carter that the first time we put hi back on, he won it. If that many people thought he was ready to go, then there would have been a lot more calls for him in the past poll.
2) There’s a big jump in votes from the prior poll. Yep, that happened here – about 33% more then the prior poll.
3) Votes come in clumps, either one long one or several short, intense bursts. If a guy is absolutly kicking ass over everyone else (say, 30% to the next guy at 8%), this is a little more reasonable, but when several guys are all within a few % of each other, the chances of there being several bursts of 10 to 0, or whatever, are extremely low – even accounting for “time zone pulses.”
Im just saying...
sure its possible some A’s fan came over here and voted for him. I just dont think its some grand scheme.
"With 16-year-old Dominican righty Michel Inoa in tow, Gio Gonzalez improving at Triple-A and lefty Brett Anderson carving up Double-Abatters along with Simmons and Trevor Cahill, Oakland’s pitching depthis officially the envy of baseball." - BaseballAmerica.com
are you an A's fan?
I can’t tell from that long sign off there.
I know, it’s the time difference.
The poll was evenly split about 5 ways and then carter had a huge surge. No matter. Let’s put him in and move onto the next round. Almost everyone discounts the validity for these reasons anyway, thus perfectly destroying the rationale of the stuffers.
Yeah cause its some grand plan to boots A's players.
We are all in on it.\
/rolls eyes
"With 16-year-old Dominican righty Michel Inoa in tow, Gio Gonzalez improving at Triple-A and lefty Brett Anderson carving up Double-Abatters along with Simmons and Trevor Cahill, Oakland’s pitching depthis officially the envy of baseball." - BaseballAmerica.com
not some grand plan
maybe just one dude.
It happened with the Rangers. Someone found a link at a rangers fans site telling them to come over here and vote for Rangers.
I don’t really care. I’m a Mets fan but haven’t voted for a single Met yet. I see you voted for Carter and it is possible he belongs now. I don’t think so and I doubt most of the folks here think so. But people that follow this poll have seen it happen a lot. I just discount some of the poll slots to a degree. Alderson at 12 (I have Holland, Alderson, Hanson and Chacin on my staff and I consider Alderson 4th on that list, just my opinion, but I think most folks here would slot him behind at least one of them, yet Alderson topped them all), Andrus at 24, Villalona, etc. It hasn’t always been A’s fans.
Actually, Anderson where he is, Carter here aren’t all that shocking to me. Even with Carter batting .259 at 21 in Stockton. Some guys not yet listed I rank him below, but some guys already listed I’d rank him above.
And you do seem a bit of a large A’s fan, dude, so I suspect you are slightly biased. No problem either. Everyone has their biases. But if this site is overrun with Bay Area fans, I want to take that into account when considering the legitimacy of the poll too.
Understood.
We all have our bias in some way. I love Carter for obvious reason. I over reacted a little bit.
"With 16-year-old Dominican righty Michel Inoa in tow, Gio Gonzalez improving at Triple-A and lefty Brett Anderson carving up Double-Abatters along with Simmons and Trevor Cahill, Oakland’s pitching depthis officially the envy of baseball." - BaseballAmerica.com
I'm actually wondering if it's someone trying to DISCREDIT A's fans at this point
by stuffing the ballot every time one of them appears on it.
No way to know, though.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
It might be
that a lot of A’s fans just lurk on this particular site, myself included.
I follow the polls, and started voting for both Cahill and Anderson when it came to be where I thought they should slot, and I’ll probably do the same for Carter when I think he warrants it. But I don’t really post on this site. So the votes might be there, even if the voices aren’t necessarily.
RagingHarden: Yeah if you get 20 starts out of me I'll be shocked. Like, I'll wreck my drawers.
by walk off bunt on Nov 7, 2008 8:23 PM EST up reply actions
My vote would be for Carlos Carrasco.
But since I can’t vote for him, I’ll cast one for another favorite pitching prospect…McDonald.
Giants: World Series Champions...in 2011.
As an A's fan
I really hope we’re not getting more ballot stuffing happening for Carter. Wade Davis was my pick here(for the last 4 polls actually), and the times I’ve checked in today, he and Carter seemed to be neck and neck most of the day without anyone else really threatening anything. I’d say go to a run off between those two, and if there is stuffing for Carter, keep him off until after poll #45 as punishment.
"So's your mom"-David Sloane
+1
Keeping Carter off till 45 sounds good
keeping him off?
so if he won this vote it wouldn’t count? Just looking for clarification. I didn’t not vote for Carter. I was very surprised to see many people did
As an A's fan
Someone is clearly ballot suffing for Carter. He received 11 votes in about 10 minutes
Carter is a nice player but there is no way in the world he should be going this high
First Brett Anderson, now Carter
who is this?
stealing my ww.net username…reveal yourself!!!
by Asfan4ever723 on Nov 7, 2008 7:05 PM EST up reply actions
Who the hell are you?
I’ve used this screen name since the late 90’s
looks like it
carter really is a nice prospect but still, there are better prospects up there still.
starting the new poll
now.
I heard Tim Lincecum will win 1 Cy Young & 11 Tim Lincecums. Question is, how many Cole Hamels will he win?
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