Community Prospect List: #37
by King Billy Royal on Nov 7, 2008 11:33 AM EST
122 comments
After 242 votes Jordan Shafer has been declared the winner with 24%. Wade Davis came in second place with 13%. Freddie Freeman, and WIlmer Flores will be removed from the poll as they received less then 5%. Chris Carter, Logan Morrison, and Gordon Beckham will be added to the poll. If you wish to vote other just list the person below. This way we're not wasting a spot.
1. MATT WIETERS - C (Baltimore)
2. DAVID PRICE - SP (Tampa Bay)
3. JASON HEYWARD - OF (Atlanta)
4. TRAVIS SNIDER - OF (Toronto)
5. MADISON BUMGARNER - SP (San Francisco)
6. COLBY RASMUS - OF (St. Louis)
7. CAMERON MAYBIN - OF (Florida)
8. TREVOR CAHILL - SP (Oakland)
9. NEFTALI FELIZ - SP (Texas)
10. MATT LAPORTA - 1B/OF/DH (Cleveland)
11. MIKE MOUSTAKAS - 3B (Kansas City)
12. TIM ALDERSON - SP (San Francisco)
13. PEDRO ALVAREZ - 3B (Pittsburgh)
14. RICK PORCELLO - SP (Detroit)
15. DEXTER FOWLER - OF (Colorado)
16. BRETT ANDERSON - SP (Oakland)*
17. DEREK HOLLAND - SP (Texas)
18. ANDREW McCUTCHEN - OF (Pittsburgh)
19. BUSTER POSEY - C (San Francisco)
20. CHRIS TILLMAN - SP (Baltimore)
21. LARS ANDERSON - 1B (Boston)
22. JUSTIN SMOAK - 1B (Texas)
23. THOMAS HANSON - SP (Atlanta)
24. ELVIS ANDRUS - SS (Texas)
25. ANGEL VILLALONA - 1B (San Francisco)
26. JHOULYS CHACIN - SP (Colorado)
27. BRIAN MATUSZ - SP (Baltimore)
28. ERIC HOSMER - 1B (Kansas City)
29. TIM BECKHAM - SS (Tampa)
30. MAX RAMIREZ - C/1B (Texas)
31. JARROD PARKER - SP (Arizona)
32. MICHAEL STANTON - OF (Florida)
33. MATT GAMEL - 3B (Milwaukee)
34. JESUS MONTERO - C (New York)
35. BRETT WALLACE - 3B (St. Louis)
36. JORDAN SHAFER - OF (Atlanta)
CANDIDATES - Fernando Martinez, Josh Vitters, Wade Davis, Carlos Triunfel, Carlos Santana, James McDonald, Yonder Alonso, Chris Carter, Logan Morrison, Gordon Beckham
TESTERS - Greg Halman, Michael Saunders, Ben Revere, Michael Bowden, Austin Jackson, Philippe Aumont, Jeremy Hellickson, Jordan Zimmermann, Jose Tabata, Matt Dominguez, Alcides Escobar, Carlos Carrasco, Brett Cecil, Freddie Freeman, Wilmer Flores, Reid Brignac
Please post more ideas for testers and we will consider them
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martinez, santana, mcdonald, and cecil are my next 4.
When they should be sacrifice bunting, they are buying effeminate designer jeans. When they should be fouling off pitches, they are masturbating. Always, they are masturbating.
by variablesdont on Nov 7, 2008 11:39 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Agree with the first three
Not sure Cecil is that high for me, but the other three seem right.
by aap212 on Nov 7, 2008 1:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
the argument for cecil is a stats one
he strikes a hell of a lot of hitters out, plus he gets a lot of groundballs. his BB rate has also been pretty decent as a professional, and he hasn’t pitched himself out of being a starter just yet.
against him is the scouting report which claims he’s a two-pitch pitcher destined for the bullpen.
When they should be sacrifice bunting, they are buying effeminate designer jeans. When they should be fouling off pitches, they are masturbating. Always, they are masturbating.
by variablesdont on Nov 7, 2008 1:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Logan Morrison
Until he’s on. 38 doubles, 13hrs and Batting Title in the pitcher friendly FSL and is currently tearing up the AFL with 5hrs displaying his power outside of the FSL. John also remarked about how impressed he was with Morrison when watching him in Arizona.
http://www.projectprospect.com/files/imagecache/content_image/files/media/content/LoganMorrison.gif
by MightyMoose on Nov 7, 2008 11:50 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
why is morrison a better prospect than tyler flowers?
this is morrison’s line:
this is flowers line:
flowers has more power and better plate discipline while playing a more intensive defensive position. and flowers is morrison’s equal in winter ball, as well, so that argument is muted.
so why should morrison get the love here, but not flowers?
When they should be sacrifice bunting, they are buying effeminate designer jeans. When they should be fouling off pitches, they are masturbating. Always, they are masturbating.
by variablesdont on Nov 7, 2008 1:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I like Flowers
so I’m not going to really dispute that he doesn’t deserve some consideration around 50 or so.
For me, Morrison is actually a year and a half younger. Morrison (8/27/87) v. Flowers (1/24/86), which is pretty significant in terms of development and performance.
Morrison will be almost through the year at 21 in Double A v. Flowers who will turn 23 in January and be in Double A.
by MightyMoose on Nov 7, 2008 1:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
looking at it, that's an easy argument to make
i still hate putting first basemen in A ball into the top 50, though.
When they should be sacrifice bunting, they are buying effeminate designer jeans. When they should be fouling off pitches, they are masturbating. Always, they are masturbating.
by variablesdont on Nov 7, 2008 2:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
then why did you bring up flowers?
?
I think Morrison belongs. No A ball first basemen in top 50? hell, we put 1b draftees who have barely played in the top 30. But I know, maybe you didn’t vote for them.
I like Flowers too, though. Only BA’s number 7 Braves prospect.
by wobatus on Nov 7, 2008 2:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
i kinda like having a discussion comparing different prospects
before noticing the 18 month difference in age, it seemed like a valuable point to make. the numbers are similar, the environments are similar, and i think it’s an intriguing question to ask, who is more valuable, a .330 hitter with good secondary stats, or .290 hitter with tremendous secondary stats.
even with the difference in age, it’s not a completely invalid comparison, and i’ll stand by asking it, if anyone’s gonna take the position that it was completely unreasonable.
with the ballot stuffing and agism, i don’t really value the order in the list, so i try to stimulate discussion by asking questions like this/
When they should be sacrifice bunting, they are buying effeminate designer jeans. When they should be fouling off pitches, they are masturbating. Always, they are masturbating.
by variablesdont on Nov 7, 2008 3:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
no, not unreasonable
I just meant if you don’t think A ball firstbasemen don’t belong in top 50. You made a decent case Flowers does belong at least near there. :)
by wobatus on Nov 7, 2008 4:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
+1
Variables – I too think there’s a case for Flowers in a bit, and the comparison is certainly not too unreasonable. I really like Morrison and I don’t see that much that separates him from Lars Anderson. That’s the better comparison for me.
IF Flowers is dealt and can stick behind the plate, then you are right, it will look silly where he winds up on this list in a couple years.
by MightyMoose on Nov 7, 2008 4:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
well it's High-A
so he was facing pretty decent comp. there (Porcello, Hellickson, etc.)
by MightyMoose on Nov 7, 2008 2:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
McDonald!!!
The guy will be in the major leagues this year, and has a solid chance of being above average even during his rookie campaign.
It’s tragic he’s behind hacks in Low-A
I'll warm up with you anytime
by ufoboy90 on Nov 7, 2008 12:09 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
-1
I’m a Dodger fan and I can’t see how you can rank him ahead of Wade Davis who is younger, better loved by scouts and has a 5 mph advantage on his fastball.
The Dodgers won't win a playoff series until the Cool-a-Coo returns.
by mckeeno on Nov 7, 2008 3:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
doesn't mcdonald throw 96?
i’m pretty sure that’s what i saw in the NLCS.
if wade davis could top that by 5 MPH, he’d be #1.
When they should be sacrifice bunting, they are buying effeminate designer jeans. When they should be fouling off pitches, they are masturbating. Always, they are masturbating.
by variablesdont on Nov 7, 2008 4:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
McDonald's velocity
As a starter, he works in the 88-90 range. He was able to bump it up as a RP (I don’t believe 96. I assume that was the Fox gun?)
The Dodgers won't win a playoff series until the Cool-a-Coo returns.
by mckeeno on Nov 7, 2008 5:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Sorry, Wade Davis does not have a 5 MPH advantage
Wade Davis has been very inconsistent with his velocities all year. He seems to have lost some heat from last year.
McDonald generally sits around 88-91, and Davis 90-92.
by Take3 on Nov 7, 2008 5:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Too many
Single-A kids get love on this list.
People are overhyping everyone.
I mean, I was giving F-Mart a B- 2 years ago and now everyone’s saying how he was overhyped. He was way overhyped, but he’s beginning to make up for it and everyone is hyping up some new Single-A kid.
Being at a higher level is very important.
by METSMETSMETS on Nov 7, 2008 4:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yonder Alonso
21 years old
First round top 10 draft pick
Great Plate Discipline
Great College Resume at a high level program
Hitting .305/.430/.500 in the Hawaiian Winter League currently with 18 walks/18 strikeouts.
by dougdirt on Nov 7, 2008 12:26 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
i still don't think he has a great case
he’s a 1Bman with non elite power and a short professional track record.
i’ll concede that he has great plate discipline, but other than that, i think he’s a worse hitter than todd frazier, and i haven’t heard an argument to convince me otherwise.
When they should be sacrifice bunting, they are buying effeminate designer jeans. When they should be fouling off pitches, they are masturbating. Always, they are masturbating.
by variablesdont on Nov 7, 2008 1:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Non elite power?
So if he hits 40 doubles and 25 HR while hitting .300/.400/.525 he gets punished because he has ‘non elite power’? The guy is a hitter with great plate discipline. He is going to walk about as much as he strikes out, hit for a good average and still hit for 25-30 HR power.
by dougdirt on Nov 7, 2008 2:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Your numbers don't add up
40 doubles and 25 home runs is 115 extra bases. To generate that slash line the extra bases have to be in a 9:12 ratio with the base hits, which implies that he only has about 150 hits on the season— or 500 at-bats.
25 HR in 500 ABs is at least 30 HR in a legitimate full season. You’re artificially boosting his power numbers in that slash line.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Nov 7, 2008 2:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Good point
Although I think he’s going to have an OBP higher than .400 as well, probably lots higher. Also, Yonder hitting 40 doubles and 25 homers in a legitamate full season certainly isnt out of line with his skills.
He probably projects to be the best of ALL the prospects in getting on base in the big leagues and seeing how that is one of the fundamental, most important aspects of the game he deserves to be near the top here IMO.
BTW, he has NO power weakness… he has pull power, oposite field power, and gap power and the approach to maximize it. The continual discounting of his power on here is silly to me. Yonder 24 Bombs, Smaok 23 Bombs
I can see projecting Smoak to have great power in the bigs…fine. What I can’t see eveidence of…visually or statistically… in Alonso having anything less than good power.
by casejud on Nov 7, 2008 3:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
They add up just fine
My stat line was loosely based, but 500 AB, 90 walks, 40 doubles, 0 triples, 25 HR adds up to .300/.406/.530
by dougdirt on Nov 7, 2008 3:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
if he puts up that line in CIN
that’ll be a pretty big disappointment.
scott hatteberg, career .273/.361/.410 hitter, put up a .310/.394/.474 line for CIN just in 2007. if alonso’s peak can only barely beat that, he doesn’t belong in a top 100 list, let alone in the top 50.
that is, of course assuming that your numbers are adjusted for park effects. if he can put up a .300/.400/.525 line in a neutral park, with 40 doubles and 25 homeruns, well, i’ll give you that he might be a better hitter than todd frazier, but i’m pretty sure that frazier will hit a great deal more homeruns per season than alonso.
When they should be sacrifice bunting, they are buying effeminate designer jeans. When they should be fouling off pitches, they are masturbating. Always, they are masturbating.
by variablesdont on Nov 7, 2008 3:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
A great deal?
You think Frazier is going to hit say 35+ HR a year?
by dougdirt on Nov 7, 2008 3:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
i was sleeping a little too much on alonso's power
first looking at his line in HWB, i thought he’d be lucky to hit 20 HRs in a season.
and take a look at the community list so far. i think frazier is, at worst. maybe 6th most likely to hit 35 HRs in a season. wieters and laporta are the only ones who are head and shoulders above frazier in both power potential and likelihood of reaching it.
heyward, moosetacos, and villalona are all a lot less likely to peak as homerun threats, while snider, lars, gamel, and wallace don’t physically project to punish the ball with as much force as frazier.
When they should be sacrifice bunting, they are buying effeminate designer jeans. When they should be fouling off pitches, they are masturbating. Always, they are masturbating.
by variablesdont on Nov 7, 2008 4:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I am very curious
as to why you think Todd Frazier has all of this power? Don’t get me wrong, the guy has some pop in his bat, but you speak about him like you think he could hit 35-40 HR and for the life of me I just can’t figure out where that idea is coming from.
by dougdirt on Nov 7, 2008 4:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
i'm banking on park factors
i think sarasota is a terrible environment for RHBs to hit in, and i think frazier’s bat will explode when he gets to a more favorable environment in AA. he exploded in college. he exploded in the pioneer league. he exploded in the midwest league. he exploded in the hawaii winter league. i think those facts, combined with my understanding of sarasota’s park factor = exploding when he gets to AA.
When they should be sacrifice bunting, they are buying effeminate designer jeans. When they should be fouling off pitches, they are masturbating. Always, they are masturbating.
by variablesdont on Nov 7, 2008 4:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Seeing him play
Frazier is one of my favorite hitting prospects.
But I don’t think he’s a huge power guy.
He did hit 22 HR his last year of college, but only 27 in 751 PA as a pro so far.
And, you can’t really blame ballparks, because he’s not hitting the doubles to suggest more HR power is there.
He had 1 XBH per 11.8 PA this season; OK but not great.
Still, I love his swing and bat speed. I just think this is a guy who is a safe bet to continue to hit at higher levels. And, he does have the athleticism to play 3B or an OF spot.
But he’s a line drive hitter first. I’d say 20-25 HR peak in a neutral park.
by acerimusdux on Nov 7, 2008 6:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Carter? Stanton?
You appear to be eliding the two players who, you know, actually hit 35 HR this season.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Nov 7, 2008 6:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
i've said it before, but you may not have seen it
i don;‘t know what to make of stanton, just yet. if he’s as good as his numbers look, he should be the top prospect in baseball. but noone seems to be suggesting that.
after hitting 39 HRs in A ball, there’s only two ways to go. either he’s peaked, and it’s all downhill from here, or he’s adam dunn v.2.0.1. personally, i find it very hard to crown someone in A ball as being the next adam dunn.
When they should be sacrifice bunting, they are buying effeminate designer jeans. When they should be fouling off pitches, they are masturbating. Always, they are masturbating.
by variablesdont on Nov 7, 2008 7:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Hatteberg?
Ok, so Scott Hatteberg put up an .868 line in Cincinnati. Alonso, by my guess is going to put up a .925 OPS. Thats nearly 60 points of OPS. If you don’t think a .925 OPS is worthy of being on a top 100 prospect list you are out of your freaking mind. And no, thats not really a peak line for Alonso, I think thats what the guy is going to do just about year in and year out.
by dougdirt on Nov 7, 2008 3:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Being nice
btw Doug. Yonder is going to have an OBP quite a bit above .400 but your point remains.
by casejud on Nov 7, 2008 4:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Why would he?
Frazier isnt bigger
Frazier is going to playing a more demanding position most likely
Frazier didnt hit more in any college season in an easier conference
Yonder has a great batting to maximize getting counts to drive the ball. Id say Yonder can hit 20-33 or so homers a year i’d guess…I also think he can walk 100 times while K’ing less than that and hit .300 as well, perhaps a lot more than that. Im being conservative.
160-175 hits a year with 100 walks as well with 33-40 doubles 20-30 homers. thats quite a player.
BTW, guys. I can virtually GUARANTEE you (especially since i cant prove it…lol) that Yonder wouldn’t have put up a .342 OBP in 2007 or a .402 in 2008 like Logan Morrison. Yonder ain’t putting up no .402 in any pro league, watch. Morrison is essentially Yonder without the batting eye…similar hitters (good ones) with decent power for the position. Morrison just makes more outs. Morrison will have to develop a LOT more power to be a better player than Yonder. It’s posssible but i doubt it.
by casejud on Nov 7, 2008 3:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Frazier vs Aloso
Junior Year: 1070 OPS to 1224 OPS
Senior Year: 1259 OPS to 1311 OPS
The first numbers are Frazier, the second are Alonso. The ACC is alos a lot tougher conference than the Big East. Also, they had areound the same amount of walks but Alonso had about half the K’s..a very strong indicator of pro performance in College. Yonder also had 52 Homers to Fraziers 41 in three years.
Besides that, he doesnt have to be that much better because Todd frazier is a great hitter as well.
by casejud on Nov 7, 2008 3:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
an interesting argument. i’ll give you that alonso played in a tougher conference, and that he hit for more homeruns, but in his senior year, frazier hit 22 HRs and stole 25 bases for a team that didn’t see anyone have more than half that. the next highest HR total was 11, and the next highest SB total was 10. the stolen base thing is just interesting, and isn’t really an argument that frazier is a better hitter. frazier also played in a northern environment. colder weather means less jump off the bat.
alonso’s 2008 miami team had twice the number of players hit a HR (one of which was closer ryan perry???) with a pair of guys hitting 13, to alonso’s 24.
frazier’s line via thebaseballcube:
alonso’s:
i guess i’m starting to come around.
When they should be sacrifice bunting, they are buying effeminate designer jeans. When they should be fouling off pitches, they are masturbating. Always, they are masturbating.
by variablesdont on Nov 7, 2008 3:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The funy
thing to me that gets glossed over is that power is a strong point of Yonder’s game but it sint even his best skill VD. It’s his great ability to control the strikezone.
Btw, if you looking for a park effect to explain why so many Miami player hit home runs and Rutgers didnt I think it may have something to do with Miami being the #1 team in the country for the whole season.
Also, I think that Frazier are SURE-FIRE major league players and BOTH are a lot better than many players on the list so far so its splitting hairs. They are both outstanding.
by casejud on Nov 7, 2008 4:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
i'm not there yet,
but around 45, i might be able to vote for alonso, if things break right.
listing his HWB stats does not help that process, though.
When they should be sacrifice bunting, they are buying effeminate designer jeans. When they should be fouling off pitches, they are masturbating. Always, they are masturbating.
by variablesdont on Nov 7, 2008 4:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Wade Davis
And no, I don’t have some snazzy pick to make him seem more exciting.
by thudean on Nov 7, 2008 12:39 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Wade Needs No Picture
The name Wade Davis screams MLB READY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Nov 7, 2008 12:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The later Rounds getting tough
Voting tends to be spread out across more guys.
by wobatus on Nov 7, 2008 12:44 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Voted Santana, ultimately
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Nov 7, 2008 1:20 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
+1
gotta go with the catcher here, next is morrison
I heard Tim Lincecum will win 1 Cy Young & 11 Tim Lincecums. Question is, how many Cole Hamels will he win?
by the pinstripes on Nov 7, 2008 2:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
is there still just one person voting for chris carter?
When they should be sacrifice bunting, they are buying effeminate designer jeans. When they should be fouling off pitches, they are masturbating. Always, they are masturbating.
by variablesdont on Nov 7, 2008 1:36 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
if there is
he is voting a lot. :) Another A ball 1B.
by wobatus on Nov 7, 2008 2:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Carter? Really?
There’s at least 4 or 5 guys on here I like more than Carter. Maybe more.
I voted for Morrison.
by mraver on Nov 7, 2008 1:59 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
i wonder when the yonder alonso guy
will post
by son.of.sourman on Nov 7, 2008 2:04 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
f-mart
until he’s on
Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results.
by biggentleben on Nov 7, 2008 2:14 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Voted Davis
I like Carter but I’d probably have Cardenas and Gio above him just from the A’s
by DeJay on Nov 7, 2008 2:22 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Pinstripes
I will not be around tonight to start the next poll so if you are around can you please take care of it.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Nov 7, 2008 2:27 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
yes
i just sent you an e-mail prior to reading this. i’ll take care of the a.m. post as well. expect it around 7 or 8 eastern time tonight as i’m planning on having a beer or 10 directly after work. this week was brutal in every way. glad it’s over!
I heard Tim Lincecum will win 1 Cy Young & 11 Tim Lincecums. Question is, how many Cole Hamels will he win?
by the pinstripes on Nov 7, 2008 3:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
John Sickels thoughts on Carter
I don’t see how Carter is getting all this support. Yes he has power and walks going for him but not much else. He strikes out WAY too often, can’t field, and won’t hit for average. Here is John’s assesment:
Chris Carter was drafted in the 15th round by the White Sox out of high school in Las Vegas in 2005. He hit .286/.350/.485 with 10 homers for Bristol in the Appy League in 2005 after signing. His defense at third base drew very mixed reviews, many projecting a move to first base eventually, and his plate discipline was shaky. I gave him a Grade C in the 2006 book, noting his power potential but that he had work to do.
Promoted to Great Falls in the Pioneer League in 2006, Carter hit .299/.398/.570. A brief trial in the Sally League went poorly due to excessive strikeouts, but he looked good in the Pioneer, doubling his walk rate compared to 2005. I raised him to Grade C+, noting his long-term power potential but being concerned about his batting average against better pitching. He was a first baseman by the end of this season.
Carter hit .291/.333/.532 with 25 homers, 67 walks, and 112 strikeouts in 467 at-bats for Kannapolis in the Sally League in 2007. As you know, he was traded to Arizona then on to Oakland over the winter. I gave him a Grade B+ in the 2008 book, due to the rapid improvement in his strike zone judgment.
2008 has been interesting. Carter hit .259/.361/.569 with 39 homers, 77 walks, and 156 strikeouts in 506 at-bats for Stockton in the California League. HIs strikeout rate shot way up compared to 2007, but he maintained a high walk rate, and obviously the power production is impressive. I’d still maintain him as a B+/B prospect heading into the off-season, but there are some issues here we need to examine.
First, at age 21 Carter is still quite young. He has “old player’s skills”…power, plate discipline, high strikeouts, and players like that often peak early and then fade. But even accounting for that, he is likely 3-4 years away from his skill peak.
Two, defense. This looks like it is a big problem. Carter got in 41 games at third base this year, fielding .837 with a 1.88 range factor, obviously unacceptable. At first base he posted a .974 fielding percentage and made 10 errors in 40 games. In the outfield he got into 14 games in right field, with a .909 fielding percentage and a 0.71 range factor. If this doesn’t spell born DH I don’t know what does.
Third, strikeouts. I am not overly paranoid about strikeouts, especially if the player in question also draws walks. But 156 in 137 games is excessive, and at this point I have to very much wonder how much contact he will make against better pitching. The caveat here is that Carter HAS shown the ability to make adjustments before, developing much better place discipline at higher levels than he showed in rookie ball. And given his youth, I am reasonably confident in his ability to adjust.
All told, Carter is highly intiguing and one of the best power hitters in the minors. But I want to see what he does in Double-A before going higher than B+, and even a B+ assumes he will adjust and hit enough to be a DH in the majors. You can make a good case that he should be a plain B.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Nov 7, 2008 2:32 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
+1
this was my complaint about Stanton. Yes, he is young, but he is K’g a ton, which does not bode well moving up to higher levels.
by MightyMoose on Nov 7, 2008 2:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I just find it funny....
That a borderline B/B+ prospect is getting support for #37. I just wish that more people voting for Carter would post so we could understand the rational.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Nov 7, 2008 2:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
"Old player's skills" are a non-issue here
Even players with old players’ skills very rarely collapse before age 30. The only really relevant part of a player’s value as a prospect is what value he will provide his team before he hits free agency. After that point, anyone can hire his services.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Nov 7, 2008 2:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Disagree
It isn’t like we are ranking these prospects on how good they will be for their team. We are ranking them for who will be the best player. I would much rather rank a player that I thought we have a long productive career then a guy who is only good around for 8 years.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Nov 7, 2008 2:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Shrug
I’m absolutely ranking them that way. Ranking them any other way is an academic exercise that has no real world application. The value of prospects is entirely contained in years where they are under team control and paid less than market value— and it’s disproportionately contained in their first 3 years, to boot, which is one reason why I hate prospects like Carlos Gomez and Elvis Andrus who look like they’ll take forever to get around to generating acceptable offense.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Nov 7, 2008 2:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I can understand that....
Everyone ranks prospects for different reasons. I disagree but understand from where you are coming. I personally am more concerned with trying to figure out who the best player is long term. I am not concerned with ‘real world application’ because when I watch baseball I am not thinking about that. I am just enjoying the product on the field and watching great atheletes play the greatest game. That is why when I rank prospects I simply choose the best available player be it on offense, defense, etc.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Nov 7, 2008 2:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
good points
I don’t vote based on whether a player is gonna hit more hiomers because he’ll be playing home games in Colorado or Philly, or how valuable he’ll be for 3 years or whatever. Just who is the better player, although often it is apples and oranges and those factors weigh in.
Carter has huge power and patience. I can see some voting for him. The surprise here is how close it was and then BOOM. There had been very little support for carter before, although I know Paul wanted him on the ballot. he didn’t do too well the first few times.
by wobatus on Nov 7, 2008 5:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The reason why I'm here is that this site is an offshoot, or adjunct if you will, of Athletics Nation
My primary interest is analyzing Oakland’s team, prospects, chances, etc. That has a fair amount of spillover into other areas of baseball— but when I look at Chris Carter, or Brett Anderson, or any other prospect for that matter, I’m asking myself “which of these guys is [if he found his way into Oakland’s system, and assuming he isn’t blocked at the MLB level] going to win the A’s the most games?” On this poll, I happened to think it was Santana.
For reasons which should be moderately obvious, I don’t really spend a lot of time worrying about whether Prospect X is going to continue to be good beyond his seventh season.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Nov 7, 2008 6:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I agree with that
There are lots of different standards you can use.
My favorite simple standard though is, if I were a GM, and had to choose between two guys, say I’m making a trade, and I have to deal one guy and get to keep the other, which guy would I keep?
Of course, even there, I suppose it depends which team you are considering. As an NL fan, I might therefore be more inclined to complain about all of these DH types ranking so highly; they wouldn’t be that valuable to my team.
by acerimusdux on Nov 7, 2008 7:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Carter v. Morrison
I think its a somewhat legitimate comparison to make considering both are being considered at this point. Morrison played at the same level (FSL v. CAL) in a more pitching heavy environment. In doing so, they put up similar OPS resulting lines (.259/.361/.569 v. .332/.402/.494). So, Morrison is the better contact hitter, as also evidenced that he struck out nearly half as much and hit for a significantly better average. Morrison also doesn’t have the defensive issues as Carter. Plus, if Morrison was in a better hitter’s environment (like the CAL league), who knows if some of his 38 doubles would instead have been home runs, hence increasing his slugging percentage.
The direct comparison between the two, at this stage of their careers, shows that Morrison is clearly the more complete hitter and complete player. I can’t see a good reason to rank Carter over Morrison, unless there are some that value .250-.270 hitters with 40+ potential more than .280-.300 with 30+ potential who plays significantly better defense.
by thudean on Nov 7, 2008 3:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You are right
That is a very good write up upon comparison for the two of them, giving my vote to Morrison over Carter.
by Fishfan79 on Nov 7, 2008 5:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
didn't vote for him
but monster power with patience has value, and I don’t think John goes very far before the A- turns to B+ in his list. But yeah, I suppose if he is maybe a B he doesn’t belong yet. Perhaps we have some more, uh, Bay Area balloting going on. :) Just kidding mind you. There was a big clamor to get him back on the ballot.
by wobatus on Nov 7, 2008 2:42 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Carter
a B+ prospect is not out of line for no.37. Even if John considers him borderline, others here obviously look at his patience and power and see something special. I wouldn’t have this high either but I don’t think it is as big of a deal as you are making out.
The A’s prospect I would like to see on this list is Cardenas
by DeJay on Nov 7, 2008 2:43 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Jason Donald
Is more likely than at least half the hitters on the list to make something of himself, and he’s not even a tester. Same goes for Aaron Cunningham.
by METSMETSMETS on Nov 7, 2008 4:10 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
-1
I don’t think Donald’s a safer bet as a hitter unless he can stay a middle infielder in the majors, and even then, he’s not a superstar. I’m not confident enough that he’ll stay up the middle.
by aap212 on Nov 7, 2008 4:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Joe Randa
just a sorta limited power 3b if he ends there kinda comp. Donald is likely a little better then that.
by wobatus on Nov 7, 2008 4:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Why not?
He’s been consistant powerwise, BABIP-wise, has decent speed…
Honestly I think he can hit .300/.380/.480 on a good MLB year, and it certainly isn’t out of the realm of belief. Lots of people believe Jordan Schafer is nothing more than a platoon outfielder and he’s already on the list while Donald remains not even a tester.
by METSMETSMETS on Nov 7, 2008 6:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
can we please close this poll now
i really don’t want a 5 man runoff. if santana and f-mart both inch up another % point, it’ll be a 5 way dance between them, wade davis, logan morrison, and chris sockpuppet.
i don’t think anyone wants that, so please, VOTE WADE DAVIS.
When they should be sacrifice bunting, they are buying effeminate designer jeans. When they should be fouling off pitches, they are masturbating. Always, they are masturbating.
by variablesdont on Nov 7, 2008 4:33 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
and chris sockpuppet gets a quick 5 votes in the time it takes me to get home
at least you seem to be learning. back with anderson, you weren’t even trying to make it look inconspicuous.
maybe in time, you can be just functionally retarded, as opposed to W.
long way to go, to get there, though.
When they should be sacrifice bunting, they are buying effeminate designer jeans. When they should be fouling off pitches, they are masturbating. Always, they are masturbating.
by variablesdont on Nov 7, 2008 5:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'd ask for a Jake Arrieta tester
As I have him mid 40s, but I doubt he’d get much support with guys like Davis, F-Mart, Triunfel and Vitters still on the board.
My best game plan is to sit on the bench and call out specific instructions like 'C'mon Boog,' 'Get ahold of one, Frank,' or 'Let's go, Brooks.' -Earl Weaver
by Baltimo on Nov 7, 2008 4:34 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
ballot stuffing again
geez. there is a dead-tie and just like this morning along comes 10 votes for Carter in less than a couple mins. Didn’t this happen with Brett Anderson too?
by MightyMoose on Nov 7, 2008 5:14 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Whats with the conspiracy theories.
"With 16-year-old Dominican righty Michel Inoa in tow, Gio Gonzalez improving at Triple-A and lefty Brett Anderson carving up Double-Abatters along with Simmons and Trevor Cahill, Oakland’s pitching depthis officially the envy of baseball." - BaseballAmerica.com
by Syphon on Nov 7, 2008 5:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
It's not paranoid delusion
If you’ve watched how these polls have gone, there’s often a strange burst for a player who’s unpopular in the comments, getting up to a couple of dozen votes in just a couple of minutes.
by aap212 on Nov 7, 2008 5:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
WADE DAVIS STUFFING!!!!
See I can do it to.
"With 16-year-old Dominican righty Michel Inoa in tow, Gio Gonzalez improving at Triple-A and lefty Brett Anderson carving up Double-Abatters along with Simmons and Trevor Cahill, Oakland’s pitching depthis officially the envy of baseball." - BaseballAmerica.com
by Syphon on Nov 7, 2008 6:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
STUFFING
There are three pretty good smoking guns for stuffing:
1) A player sees a big spike in votes from teh prior poll. In Carter’s case, the community in here didn’t even have him on the last poll. It would be very, very unusual for our group as a whole to miss the boat so badly on Carter that the first time we put hi back on, he won it. If that many people thought he was ready to go, then there would have been a lot more calls for him in the past poll.
2) There’s a big jump in votes from the prior poll. Yep, that happened here – about 33% more then the prior poll.
3) Votes come in clumps, either one long one or several short, intense bursts. If a guy is absolutly kicking ass over everyone else (say, 30% to the next guy at 8%), this is a little more reasonable, but when several guys are all within a few % of each other, the chances of there being several bursts of 10 to 0, or whatever, are extremely low – even accounting for “time zone pulses.”
by siddfynch on Nov 7, 2008 7:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Im just saying...
sure its possible some A’s fan came over here and voted for him. I just dont think its some grand scheme.
"With 16-year-old Dominican righty Michel Inoa in tow, Gio Gonzalez improving at Triple-A and lefty Brett Anderson carving up Double-Abatters along with Simmons and Trevor Cahill, Oakland’s pitching depthis officially the envy of baseball." - BaseballAmerica.com
by Syphon on Nov 8, 2008 1:54 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
are you an A's fan?
I can’t tell from that long sign off there.
I know, it’s the time difference.
The poll was evenly split about 5 ways and then carter had a huge surge. No matter. Let’s put him in and move onto the next round. Almost everyone discounts the validity for these reasons anyway, thus perfectly destroying the rationale of the stuffers.
by wobatus on Nov 7, 2008 5:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah cause its some grand plan to boots A's players.
We are all in on it.\
/rolls eyes
"With 16-year-old Dominican righty Michel Inoa in tow, Gio Gonzalez improving at Triple-A and lefty Brett Anderson carving up Double-Abatters along with Simmons and Trevor Cahill, Oakland’s pitching depthis officially the envy of baseball." - BaseballAmerica.com
by Syphon on Nov 7, 2008 6:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
not some grand plan
maybe just one dude.
It happened with the Rangers. Someone found a link at a rangers fans site telling them to come over here and vote for Rangers.
I don’t really care. I’m a Mets fan but haven’t voted for a single Met yet. I see you voted for Carter and it is possible he belongs now. I don’t think so and I doubt most of the folks here think so. But people that follow this poll have seen it happen a lot. I just discount some of the poll slots to a degree. Alderson at 12 (I have Holland, Alderson, Hanson and Chacin on my staff and I consider Alderson 4th on that list, just my opinion, but I think most folks here would slot him behind at least one of them, yet Alderson topped them all), Andrus at 24, Villalona, etc. It hasn’t always been A’s fans.
Actually, Anderson where he is, Carter here aren’t all that shocking to me. Even with Carter batting .259 at 21 in Stockton. Some guys not yet listed I rank him below, but some guys already listed I’d rank him above.
And you do seem a bit of a large A’s fan, dude, so I suspect you are slightly biased. No problem either. Everyone has their biases. But if this site is overrun with Bay Area fans, I want to take that into account when considering the legitimacy of the poll too.
by wobatus on Nov 8, 2008 7:55 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Understood.
We all have our bias in some way. I love Carter for obvious reason. I over reacted a little bit.
"With 16-year-old Dominican righty Michel Inoa in tow, Gio Gonzalez improving at Triple-A and lefty Brett Anderson carving up Double-Abatters along with Simmons and Trevor Cahill, Oakland’s pitching depthis officially the envy of baseball." - BaseballAmerica.com
by Syphon on Nov 8, 2008 2:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm actually wondering if it's someone trying to DISCREDIT A's fans at this point
by stuffing the ballot every time one of them appears on it.
No way to know, though.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Nov 7, 2008 6:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
It might be
that a lot of A’s fans just lurk on this particular site, myself included.
I follow the polls, and started voting for both Cahill and Anderson when it came to be where I thought they should slot, and I’ll probably do the same for Carter when I think he warrants it. But I don’t really post on this site. So the votes might be there, even if the voices aren’t necessarily.
RagingHarden: Yeah if you get 20 starts out of me I'll be shocked. Like, I'll wreck my drawers.
by walk off bunt on Nov 7, 2008 8:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
My vote would be for Carlos Carrasco.
But since I can’t vote for him, I’ll cast one for another favorite pitching prospect…McDonald.
Giants: World Series Champions...in 2011.
by Giants_Junkie on Nov 7, 2008 5:52 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
As an A's fan
I really hope we’re not getting more ballot stuffing happening for Carter. Wade Davis was my pick here(for the last 4 polls actually), and the times I’ve checked in today, he and Carter seemed to be neck and neck most of the day without anyone else really threatening anything. I’d say go to a run off between those two, and if there is stuffing for Carter, keep him off until after poll #45 as punishment.
"So's your mom"-David Sloane
by gatling on Nov 7, 2008 6:03 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
and Davis is back in the lead now...
lol.
Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.
by doublestix on Nov 7, 2008 6:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
+1
Keeping Carter off till 45 sounds good
by AsWsFan4ever on Nov 7, 2008 6:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
keeping him off?
so if he won this vote it wouldn’t count? Just looking for clarification. I didn’t not vote for Carter. I was very surprised to see many people did
by Rajah358 on Nov 7, 2008 6:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
As an A's fan
Someone is clearly ballot suffing for Carter. He received 11 votes in about 10 minutes
Carter is a nice player but there is no way in the world he should be going this high
First Brett Anderson, now Carter
by AsWsFan4ever on Nov 7, 2008 6:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
who is this?
stealing my ww.net username…reveal yourself!!!
by Asfan4ever723 on Nov 7, 2008 7:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Who the hell are you?
I’ve used this screen name since the late 90’s
by AsWsFan4ever on Nov 7, 2008 7:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
looks like it
carter really is a nice prospect but still, there are better prospects up there still.
by Fishfan79 on Nov 7, 2008 6:39 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
i'm calling it:
When they should be sacrifice bunting, they are buying effeminate designer jeans. When they should be fouling off pitches, they are masturbating. Always, they are masturbating.
by variablesdont on Nov 7, 2008 7:37 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
i'd also like to see carlos carrasco and brett cecil make it onto the next poll.
When they should be sacrifice bunting, they are buying effeminate designer jeans. When they should be fouling off pitches, they are masturbating. Always, they are masturbating.
by variablesdont on Nov 7, 2008 7:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
starting the new poll
now.
I heard Tim Lincecum will win 1 Cy Young & 11 Tim Lincecums. Question is, how many Cole Hamels will he win?
by the pinstripes on Nov 7, 2008 9:07 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
i'll try to help to keep an eye on the runs in voting
i think posting more of these would hopefully deter future stuffing. at the least it might make it easier to spot.
When they should be sacrifice bunting, they are buying effeminate designer jeans. When they should be fouling off pitches, they are masturbating. Always, they are masturbating.
by variablesdont on Nov 7, 2008 9:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
BTW...
How do you paste an image like that into a post here? I’m going to try using the ‘image’ icon to display the poll that I saved as an htm file:
by rhd on Nov 7, 2008 9:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
When they should be sacrifice bunting, they are buying effeminate designer jeans. When they should be fouling off pitches, they are masturbating. Always, they are masturbating.
by variablesdont on Nov 7, 2008 9:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
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