Community Prospect List: #35
by King Billy Royal on Nov 6, 2008 11:53 AM EST
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PrintAfter 402 votes Jesus Montero has been declared the winner with 21%. Brett Wallace came in second place with 13%. Alcides Escobar and Matt Dominguez will be removed from the poll as they received less then 5%. Brett Cecil, Carlos Santana, and James McDonald will be added to the poll. If you wish to vote other just list the person below. This way we're not wasting a spot.
1. MATT WIETERS - C (Baltimore)
2. DAVID PRICE - SP (Tampa Bay)
3. JASON HEYWARD - OF (Atlanta)
4. TRAVIS SNIDER - OF (Toronto)
5. MADISON BUMGARNER - SP (San Francisco)
6. COLBY RASMUS - OF (St. Louis)
7. CAMERON MAYBIN - OF (Florida)
8. TREVOR CAHILL - SP (Oakland)
9. NEFTALI FELIZ - SP (Texas)
10. MATT LAPORTA - 1B/OF/DH (Cleveland)
11. MIKE MOUSTAKAS - 3B (Kansas City)
12. TIM ALDERSON - SP (San Francisco)
13. PEDRO ALVAREZ - 3B (Pittsburgh)
14. RICK PORCELLO - SP (Detroit)
15. DEXTER FOWLER - OF (Colorado)
16. BRETT ANDERSON - SP (Oakland)*
17. DEREK HOLLAND - SP (Texas)
18. ANDREW McCUTCHEN - OF (Pittsburgh)
19. BUSTER POSEY - C (San Francisco)
20. CHRIS TILLMAN - SP (Baltimore)
21. LARS ANDERSON - 1B (Boston)
22. JUSTIN SMOAK - 1B (Texas)
23. THOMAS HANSON - SP (Atlanta)
24. ELVIS ANDRUS - SS (Texas)
25. ANGEL VILLALONA - 1B (San Francisco)
26. JHOULYS CHACIN - SP (Colorado)
27. BRIAN MATUSZ - SP (Baltimore)
28. ERIC HOSMER - 1B (Kansas City)
29. TIM BECKHAM - SS (Tampa)
30. MAX RAMIREZ - C/1B (Texas)
31. JARROD PARKER - SP (Arizona)
32. MICHAEL STANTON - OF (Florida)
33. MATT GAMEL - 3B (Milwaukee)
34. JESUS MONTERO - C (New York)
CANDIDATES - Fernando Martinez, Freddie Freeman, Josh Vitters, Brett Wallace, Wade Davis, Jordan Schafer, Carlos Triunfel, James McDonald, Brett Cecil, Carlos Santana
TESTERS - Greg Halman, Michael Saunders, Gordon Beckham, Ben Revere, Michael Bowden, Yonder Alonso, Austin Jackson, Philippe Aumont, Logan Morrison, Wilmer Flores, Chris Carter, Jeremy Hellickson, Reid Brignac, Jordan Zimmermann, Jose Tabata, Matt Dominguez, Alcides Escobar, Carlos Carrasco
Please post more ideas for testers and we will consider them
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Davis here
then I’d go Wallace.
I’d love to see Logan Morrison pretty soon.
The Dodgers won't win a playoff series until the Cool-a-Coo returns.
Santana
The fact he kept up the impressive numbers with Kinston after the trade convinces me the bat is for real.
Carlos Carrasco - Tester (at least?)
Two of us suggested C.C. as a tester when we were voting on #34 and I didn’t see any feedback or response as to why he would not make sense. He’s a heartbeat away from the majors and seems to have the make-up & talent to stick as a legit #2-#3 SP… Is there a reason KBR feels he’s not yet worthy of mention?
Giants: World Series Champions...in 2011.
Done
I do feel he is worthy of a mention. However, I don’t have time to comment on every suggestion that is made.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Nov 6, 2008 12:15 PM EST up reply actions
Also
Pinstripes isn’t able to do the polls for a bit, so I am dealing with twice the workload so some things get overlooked.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Nov 6, 2008 12:17 PM EST up reply actions
Other - Yonder Alonso
21 years old
First round top 10 draft pick
Great Plate Discipline
Great College Resume at a high level program
Hitting .305/.430/.500 in the Hawaiian Winter League currently with 18 walks/18 strikeouts.
I am going to try to get him on the poll again soon.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Nov 6, 2008 12:22 PM EST up reply actions
Whenever you feel its right
I am just campaigning for the big guy, who should, in my mind have been voted for.
Other - Logan Morrison
2008 Season
Team League AVG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI TB BB SO SB CS OBP SLG OPS
JUP FSL .332 130 488 71 162 38 1 13 74 241 57 80 9 3 .402 .494 .896
Minors .332 130 488 71 162 38 1 13 74 241 57 80 9 3 .402 .494 .896
2008 Winter League
Team League AVG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI TB BB SO SB CS OBP SLG OPS
MSS AFL .448 16 67 16 30 5 2 5 22 54 0 9 1 0 .448 .806 1.254
How is he not on here yet?
I like Morrison too
voted for santana and may have decided the chance of sticking at catcher makes him a tiny bit better, although Morrison has youth.
Howver, beginning to look like Morisson won’t get on the list until mid 40s, maybe low 40s, given the support levels for current candidates. I really think he should be higher on this list. he just went nowhere when he was on the list. he got more “others” in polls where he was just a tester than actual votes when he was a candidate.
From the way John talked about him seems like he’s a top 10-15 among position players to him.
In the AFL looks like his thinking is why take a walk when I can just rake. Yes, AFL stats don’t mean much, except to me when they seem of a piece with a player’s season overall.
+1
good insight. I tend to agree. As a newly turned 21yr old he is raking against solid prospects that have a wide skill set, some of which have played at much higher levels (including ML calibre pitching prospect – hughes/bucholz, etc.), so i think the AFL stats should be put in line with his big hear in the FSL.
+1
been saying for a while now he should be up there, people really under-rate how hard it is in the FSL to put up numbers like he has been putting up there.
Will Clark
I liken Morrison to Will Clark in his prime with more power. He’s not going to be Teixeira, but his left handed swing reminds me a bit of Clark and I think he’ll for high avg. with 25+ hrs annually.
You may disagree
but I believe in James McDonald.
Accidentally not thedude925 anymore. I do hate this new name.
-1
I believe in him, as in I believe he will be a major league starter. More a back end rotation guy with a ceiling as a #2. I look at the above list and would take Aumont, and Davis over him. I’d also take a guy like Jake Arrieta who i’m surprised isn’t on this list already and probably others too.
by RoyalsFan4Life on Nov 6, 2008 12:57 PM EST up reply actions
Aumont over McDonald is insane
McDonald has more strikeouts and a better K/BB ratio and has reached the majors. Aumont is an injury-prone first year pitcher in low-A ball.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
um
Kevin Goldstein at BP says he has ace stuff and compares him to Kevin Brown. The elbow injury was minor and he was shut down to be overly cautious. He’s also what 5yrs younger than McDonald? Give me a break, Aumont’s numbers, albeit limited, were outstanding for a kid that didn’t even start pitchin in high school.
by RoyalsFan4Life on Nov 6, 2008 1:27 PM EST up reply actions
He.
Is.
In.
Low.
A.
Are you actually disputing the concept that players who post numbers in higher leagues are far more likely to succeed in the majors, or just ignoring it completely?
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Dallas McPherson
Hit 39 Hr’s in AAA this year, are you going to make the same case for him??
by RoyalsFan4Life on Nov 6, 2008 1:47 PM EST up reply actions
42hr's haha even more!
perhaps Lou Montanez and Nelson Cruz should also be on here?
by RoyalsFan4Life on Nov 6, 2008 1:48 PM EST up reply actions
Asinine
Although I rarely agree with PT, I think he is right in this situation. And bringing up career AAAA players who are closer to 30 than 20 doesn’t help your cause. I am a Mariner fan and there is no way I take Aumont over McDonald. McDonald is a sure thing right now. If Aumont turns into McDonald in 5 years, he will be a successful prospect. What are the actual odds of him being the “ace” that Goldstein says? 5? 10?
I don’t know if you play poker… but pot odds are not on Aumont’s side if he is in a hand against McDonald.
"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile
Box
I respect your opinion. Just to be clear PT said players who post numbers in higher leagues are far more likely to succeed in the majors whereas the above names have posted fantastic numbers and it doesn’t co-relate. McDonald was a 23yr old who performed pretty well relative to his age in the league. I don’t think he was dominant.
There’s a reason Aumont went as high in the draft as he did. I agree with you, he is raw, but I disagree about his upside being James McDonald-esque. If he is able to put it together than I think he is not a back end rotation guy and could definitely be a front end guy
by RoyalsFan4Life on Nov 6, 2008 2:16 PM EST up reply actions
Interesting Discussion
I tend to agree with RoyalsFan on this one. I’m not a big fan of Aumont right now, but I’ve read he’s got the raw stuff to be a top starter. that is a might and it could be a few years away, but as an 18-19yr old in the Mid West he was fantastic. I don’t think its that much of stretch at all to see him as a far superior talent than McDonald. I’m not much of a fan of McDonald either. he put up good numbers but it’s not like he was that young for his league.
Thoughts
I agree with PT that numbers in higher leagues are very important. However, if you only look at the numbers you will often be misled. Often scouting reports will tell far more about a player then their stat line. Some guys like Hanley always have the tools but not often the motivation to put them together. Personally I like to find guys with impressive numbers and then read their scouting reports to determine what kind of upside they have. With pitching, a guy can have amazing AAA numbers but it is pretty much accepted that he will have lots of troubles with MLB hitters.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Nov 6, 2008 2:58 PM EST up reply actions
Dude, citing a bunch of guys who are way too old for their league
is not real impressive when you’re talking a guy, McDonald, who is par or younger than the average prospect in his league.
FWIW, though, if I had to pick sight unseen between having Nelson Cruz in my system and having Phillippe Aumont in my system, I’d pick Cruz every day of the week and twice on Sunday. (I wouldn’t say that about McPherson.)
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
I'll take
KG and the vast amount of scouts he talks to over you every day of the week and twice on sunday.
by RoyalsFan4Life on Nov 6, 2008 4:00 PM EST up reply actions
Also "dude"
Are you actually disputing the concept that players who post numbers in higher leagues are far more likely to succeed in the majors, or just ignoring it completely
If you meant players posting numbers in higher leagues relative to their age, than you should say that.
by RoyalsFan4Life on Nov 6, 2008 4:04 PM EST up reply actions
OK, so, apparently when I'm conversing with you
I can’t take as given that you’re aware of certain fundamentally obvious facts that anyone on the site should know.
I’ll keep that in mind.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
uh
so the fact that Aumont as an 18 yr old pitched extremely well in A Ball makes you think that he won’t dominate at double A or at a higher level as he gets older? Why don’t you look at McDonald’s stats in A Ball and compare? He’s 4-5 yrs younger than McDonald. Age relative to performance, Aumont is on a higher plateau than McDonald.
i’ll keep it mind that you’re retarded.
by RoyalsFan4Life on Nov 6, 2008 6:42 PM EST up reply actions
No Need For Name Calling...
As for McDonald’s age, I do believe he was a hitter for awhile, and has only recently (last three seasons) been pitching… any Dodger fans are free to correct me. So the Age Relative to League thing with him doesn’t really fly with him. In fact, I think the fact that he is a little older might help him some since he is further along on the injury-prone years and has a better shot of coming out unscathed.
"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile
Very much so
and ARL is overrated for pitchers anyway…
In any case, as I said, it’s not like he’s fucking 30. He’s 23 in AAA. There is nothing whatsoever the matter with a player being 23 in AAA. You’d be ruling damn nearly every college pitching prospect out as a potential MLB player if you deemed 23 in AAA to be “too old.”
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Don't understand this list
there are 9 players already who are either stuck at first, or will be a DH with zero defensive value for a team. That isn’t including Snider (might stick in the OF), Alvarez (prob stick at 3rd) or Stanton(probably will).
Then there is Elvis Andrus who batted .297 (very nice for his age and league) but struck out 91 times in 483 AB, had just 25 XBH all year (which is 17.4% of the time), and had a BABIP over .350. There are three outcomes, he either progresses with age and has a moves up (probable), his numbers decrease as he moves up as league, or he stagnates and doesn’t get any better than he is today. I’d say the first choice is more likely.
So whats that make him? Jason Bartlett with plus defense? Today’s Orlando Cabrera? At best this year’s Christan Guzman?
I don’t see him being someone hitting .300-.320, walking 70 times, with ANY pop. Is this just me? What do people actually expect out of him? Is he purely ARL?
I’m asking for a serious response, not a drubbing of people calling me stupid.
Remember: baseball guys... baseball...
I think you're right
The minors are insanely rich with first basemen right now, which is part of what’s happening. But I count seven or eight first basemen on the list already, and people are clamoring for Morrison, Flowers, Freeman, and Wallace. It’s a bit out of control, and a reason why I think Schafer is being undervalued. Between what it takes for a first baseman to be a true star and the attrition rates of catchers, there’s a very good chance this list looks like a disaster a few years down the line.
In case you missed it
Rangers fans (NOT all) stuffed the ballots, according to posts on LSB. I agree there’s no way Andrus should be where he is. I’d put him in 40-50 range personally more for his age and performance relative to his league. I don’t think he’s going to be an offensive force, but he plays at a premium position and if he becomes an Orlando Cabrera in his prime the Rangers would be pretty pleased with that.
by RoyalsFan4Life on Nov 6, 2008 1:02 PM EST up reply actions
just curious on the 40-50 Range...
last year…
BA 19
Keith Law 31
MLB.com 38
Top Prospect 43
Mound talk 49
Projec Prospect 52
Scouting Book 54
All of those are before this season. So you are saying just for clarification that even with the massive attrition in the minor league lists due to promotion that Andrus should drop for the season he had not increase?
Just making sure where you are coming from, because you heavily disagree with a large portion of the national experts.
I could agree last year, but not this year.
Andrus was a BAD hitter this season
There’s no reason why he shouldn’t be moved down on people’s lists.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Bad hitter?
How was he a bad hitter? He hit around 300 with a 350 OBP. That’s quite good for someone his age in AA. Or do you expect all hitters to have a 500 SLG? Is that why you consider him a bad hitter? You can’t paint all hitters with the same brush, you have to look at lead-off/speed guys differently. If they can slug 400, then they did a great job.
"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile
Agreed
Also, would people please remember that he is a 19 year old shortstop in AA. Age matters when it comes to ranking prospects. If he was allowed to hit in his age appropriate league, A-, then people would probably be in awe of the performance he would have put on. I am not the biggest Andrus fan but stating he was a “BAD hitter” is just plain wrong.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Nov 6, 2008 3:01 PM EST up reply actions
He struck out far too often to sustain his batting average
Getting lucky does not make you a good hitter, it makes you a lucky hitter. Lucky hitters do not stay lucky.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Bad hitter v Good Hitter
I don’t believe he is a bad hitter, but I wouldn’t say he is a good one either. With his speed and his singles(lack of XBH) tendencies his BABIP will only drop with the increase in his competitions’ fielding competency. Not to mention that it is high in the first place.
Is he really projectable? Sure he is young and playing in a high level, but I’m not sure as a SS that his body is going to fill out considerably more. If it does fill out more, than what? Is he hitting 15 HR rather than 10? When projecting for power I look for a high XBH%, and his doubles don’t appear to overwhelm me where I believe that’ll he’ll ever reach the 40+ 2B, 20+ HR level.
The best thing I see with him is the differential in his career and this year’s Line Drive, Moving up 4.1 That could be a little fluky and also because of his 2006, but we’ll see how he does in the following years.
Remember: baseball guys... baseball...
LD rates in the minors are screwy and should not be given any weight
unless you’re comparing a guy to the league average in his own league. Different leagues have different scorekeepers who credit line drives at vastly different rates. It’s akin to trying, in basketball, to evaluate assists in college point guards.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Doubles and Homers...
As a lead-off hitter… I don’t look for homers and doubles from that player. Doubles I like, but I could care less if they ever hit a HR. How many lead-off hitters hit 20HR a season? Han-Ram, Granderson, Sizemore, and Soriano off the top of my head… and most of them would be better suited as 3 hitters instead of leading off. How many lead-off men hit 40 doubles in a year? Probably less than the 20HR club since only 26 players last year hit 40 or more doubles.
If Andrus hits 8-10HR a year and about 25 doubles, while still stealing 45+ bases and having a line in the 300/350/400 area and playing great defense, I think he ends up being one of the better SSs in baseball.
"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile
Sure... if you believe he's capable of posting that line...
I find it pretty farfetched, myself. .270/.320/.340 is more likely.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Well . . .
Full-season OPS by year:
2006: .684
2007, Myrtle Beach: .665
2007, Bakerfield: .742
2008: .717
So if you’re going by raw statistical production, then yeah, not a good hitter this year. But considering the steep jump in competition and his age, plus the fact that he actually improved his production level from the year before, I can’t really complain just yet. In fact, I think I’d rather jump on the guy’s bandwagon after this year than jump off it.
Look at his month to month stats
in Frisco, vast improvement over the course of the year, a good sign for such a young player. He’s for real.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
lax
I guess i look more from a fantasy perspective. I think the experts noted above will heavily factor in Andrus’ defense which is outstanding. Also, I’m sure they’ll have him ahead of guys like Beckham, Smoak, Hosmer, but to me, those guys have the potential to be all-stars. I just don’t see the same in Andrus. Solid regular yes, but his bat is not projected to be all-star worthy. Hope that helps clarify where i’m coming from.
by RoyalsFan4Life on Nov 6, 2008 1:23 PM EST up reply actions
Well, I understand the ideas for fantasy value
but, defense has to be taken into the equation for the MLB roster. Not to mention Andrus would at least give you the hard to find steals category, considering the hard to fill SS position depending on the rules determining positional qualifiers
I think a lot of the disagreements fall here fall along the lines of fantasy value vs. positional value vs. overall skill set.
Gotta love Tony
He was the most underrated shortstop of his generation. He had an unbelievable glove and an even more unbelievable love of triples. It was so much fun watching Tony trying to stretch doubles into triples in the late 1980’s. Jays fans miss his classic swing which started whith him barely holding onto the bat and then smacking the ball into the gap.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Nov 6, 2008 1:08 PM EST up reply actions
Trader!
KBR, I thought you were a Royals fan? Shame on you, it must have been tough watching Tony lose to my Royals in that classic series.
Also, i don’t think the Fernandez comp. for Andrus is that bad either. AGain, i’m sure the Rangers would be thrilled if he turned into either a Cabrera or Fernandez type.
by RoyalsFan4Life on Nov 6, 2008 1:12 PM EST up reply actions
You mean traitor?
That really confused me for a minute.
geez
hooked on phonics worked for me. thanks for the correction.
by RoyalsFan4Life on Nov 6, 2008 1:19 PM EST up reply actions
Mmmm... that's good Tony Love
But let’s remember: If Andrus is the next Orlando Cabrera, his ranking is probably about right.
On the Tony Fernandez front, one plus for Andrus is that he would be a better base stealer. Fernandez was just a lousy base stealer.
Omar Visquel
I think he comps well with Omar Visquel, he is an amazing defender. Plus, I believe he has more offensive potential than Visquel ever had. And lets remember, Visquel was a multiple time all star.
stanton
He is a CF and has the raw tools to perhaps even stick there if nothing else yes he will be an OF somewhere but perhaps moved there because the team has maybin already in CF. Still you are right now debating a CF and tossing him on a lost about 1B and DH? seems a little weird there.
Really?
He played more games in right than center this year, and I’ve never heard anybody else buy him as a centerfielder.
Carlos Santana
Voted for him, not because I’m an Indians fan, but because he had such an amazing season and will likely stay behind the plate. Even if he doesn’t, he has enough athleticism to play 3rd or the OF. The only knock on him is that he came out of nowhere and wasn’t particularly young for his league. Another thing I found peculiar as well was his low LD% when he was with the Dodgers, but during his stint with the Indians it went up 19,5% which is pretty good.
Either way there are still some question marks, but the same goes for everyone else on this poll and Santana has quite alot of upside playing a premium position.
Other - Jeremy Hellickson
But I voted Davis because he’s the highest of the guys who are on my list at the moment.
Next 5:
1) Jeremy Hellickson
2) Logan Morrison
3) Gordon Beckham
4) Wade Davis
5) Jeff Samardzija
Vogt early, Vogt often.
Jeff Samardzija
I’ve been meaning to add him as a tester for a while. Somebody brought him up a while ago and it just slipped my mind. I will try to get him on a poll soon.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Nov 6, 2008 4:05 PM EST up reply actions
Beckham, Gordon
John’s take from Arizona was not that flattering.
Samardzija
I’m impressed with his progress this year, but I think he’s only a reliever, which has to push him down the list.
Hmmmmm
I do like the fact that he has unbelievable peripheral vision. That should definitely help him when back catching.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Nov 6, 2008 4:20 PM EST up reply actions
Fernando
until he’s in once again. He’s gonna end up being one of the most underrated guys on the list. My prediction is that he’ll be top 10 on next year’s list and we’ll be wondering where we went wrong.
Vitters
then Schafer/Fmart/Wallace. Vitters is getting way underrated at this point.
nah
if anything he’s prospect status slipped for me this year. he was injured and the Cubs didn’t move him from Boise. Yes he did well there, but c’mon 2 years in and still at Short Season? Moustakas looks like a man among boys, Vitters still looks like a boy among men. Obviously he’s still really young, so there’s no question that he can still put it together. I don’t think he’s a stretch here, but way underrated i don’t think that’s true.
agree with MM
I think Vitters should be around 50 with a chance to really move up the next year, but his numbers weren’t that great in SS ball.
by VanillaGorilla on Nov 6, 2008 5:39 PM EST up reply actions
Schafer
I don’t see the reason for his support this early. Yes, he produced after the suspension, but that cloud will continue to hang over his head, and the next time he gets busted it will be for 100 games. I just don’t think people are properly accounting for the risk involved with a known PED user… particular if the new test for hGH is implemented any time soon. Or if longitudinal testing comes about… Or if MLB starts freezing and storing samples…
Why I assume he'll use again?
Lots of PED users have kept playing ball afterwards.
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