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Community Prospect List: #35

After 402 votes Jesus Montero has been declared the winner with 21%.  Brett Wallace came in second place with 13%.  Alcides Escobar and Matt Dominguez will be removed from the poll as they received less then 5%. Brett Cecil, Carlos Santana, and James McDonald will be added to the poll. If you wish to vote other just list the person below. This way we're not wasting a spot.

1. MATT WIETERS - C (Baltimore)
2. DAVID PRICE - SP (Tampa Bay)
3. JASON HEYWARD - OF (Atlanta)
4. TRAVIS SNIDER - OF (Toronto)
5. MADISON BUMGARNER - SP (San Francisco)
6. COLBY RASMUS - OF (St. Louis)
7. CAMERON MAYBIN - OF (Florida)
8.
TREVOR CAHILL - SP (Oakland)
9. NEFTALI FELIZ - SP (Texas)
10. MATT LAPORTA -  1B/OF/DH (Cleveland)
11. MIKE MOUSTAKAS - 3B (Kansas City)
12. TIM ALDERSON - SP (San Francisco)
13. PEDRO ALVAREZ - 3B (Pittsburgh)
14. RICK PORCELLO - SP (Detroit)
15. DEXTER FOWLER - OF (Colorado)
16. BRETT ANDERSON - SP (Oakland)*
17. DEREK HOLLAND - SP (Texas) 
18. ANDREW McCUTCHEN - OF (Pittsburgh)
19. BUSTER POSEY - C (San Francisco)
20. CHRIS TILLMAN - SP (Baltimore)
21. LARS ANDERSON - 1B (Boston) 
22. JUSTIN SMOAK - 1B (Texas)
23. THOMAS HANSON - SP (Atlanta)
24. ELVIS ANDRUS - SS (Texas)
25. ANGEL VILLALONA - 1B (San Francisco)
26. JHOULYS CHACIN - SP (Colorado)
27. BRIAN MATUSZ - SP (Baltimore)

28. ERIC HOSMER - 1B (Kansas City)

29. TIM BECKHAM - SS (Tampa)

30. MAX RAMIREZ - C/1B (Texas)

31. JARROD PARKER - SP (Arizona)

32. MICHAEL STANTON - OF (Florida)

33. MATT GAMEL - 3B (Milwaukee)

34. JESUS MONTERO - C (New York)

 

CANDIDATES -  Fernando Martinez, Freddie Freeman, Josh Vitters, Brett Wallace, Wade Davis, Jordan Schafer,  Carlos Triunfel, James McDonald, Brett Cecil, Carlos Santana

TESTERS - Greg Halman, Michael Saunders, Gordon Beckham, Ben Revere, Michael Bowden, Yonder Alonso, Austin Jackson, Philippe Aumont, Logan Morrison,   Wilmer Flores, Chris Carter, Jeremy Hellickson, Reid Brignac, Jordan Zimmermann, Jose Tabata, Matt Dominguez, Alcides Escobar, Carlos Carrasco

Please post more ideas for testers and we will consider them

Poll
Who is the #35 prospect on the Community List?
Fernando Martinez
46 votes
Freddie Freeman
30 votes
Josh Vitters
29 votes
Brett Wallace
51 votes
Wade Davis
32 votes
Jordan Schafer
48 votes
Carlos Triunfel
33 votes
James McDonald
17 votes
Carlos Santana
31 votes
Brett Cecil
7 votes

324 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs | Comment 121 comments

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Davis here

then I’d go Wallace.

I’d love to see Logan Morrison pretty soon.

The Dodgers won't win a playoff series until the Cool-a-Coo returns.

by mckeeno on Nov 6, 2008 12:03 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Santana

The fact he kept up the impressive numbers with Kinston after the trade convinces me the bat is for real.

by wobatus on Nov 6, 2008 12:08 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

+1

Then McDonald, then Cecil is how I will be voting I think. Unless I get swayed differently between now and then.

"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile

by Boxkutter on Nov 6, 2008 12:19 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Carlos Carrasco - Tester (at least?)

Two of us suggested C.C. as a tester when we were voting on #34 and I didn’t see any feedback or response as to why he would not make sense. He’s a heartbeat away from the majors and seems to have the make-up & talent to stick as a legit #2-#3 SP… Is there a reason KBR feels he’s not yet worthy of mention?

Giants: World Series Champions...in 2011.

by Giants_Junkie on Nov 6, 2008 12:08 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Done

I do feel he is worthy of a mention. However, I don’t have time to comment on every suggestion that is made.

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on Nov 6, 2008 12:15 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Also

Pinstripes isn’t able to do the polls for a bit, so I am dealing with twice the workload so some things get overlooked.

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on Nov 6, 2008 12:17 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

can anyone make an argument for freddie freeman?

he’s young, but to be an elite 1B, he needs more than that going for him. he hit well in low A, but so did brian dopirak and kala kaaihue.

as a 1B, you really need to hit for a .900 OPS to be above average, and right now, i’m not convinced that freeman can do that. not now, not 3 years from now.

really, he’s a 1B in low A who didn’t crush the ball. there;s time to put him on the list next year, as he’ll only be 19, and still in A ball.

we can do better than freeman.

When they should be sacrifice bunting, they are buying effeminate designer jeans. When they should be fouling off pitches, they are masturbating. Always, they are masturbating.

by variablesdont on Nov 6, 2008 12:20 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

His OPS was .899

Montero should definitely not be above him or Schafer!

by Jay212033 on Nov 6, 2008 2:04 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Oh

Heyward didn’t have over a .900 OPS and he’s #3.

by Jay212033 on Nov 6, 2008 2:05 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

heyward plays RF and is projected to improve

freeman is a 1Bman, who has no elite skils.

i think there should be a heavy, heavy tax on 1Bmen in a poll like this. doubly so, for those, like freeman, who are doing it in A ball.

When they should be sacrifice bunting, they are buying effeminate designer jeans. When they should be fouling off pitches, they are masturbating. Always, they are masturbating.

by variablesdont on Nov 6, 2008 5:05 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

1 XBH per 9.3 PA

OPS isn’t really that useful for looking at teen-aged prospects in A ball.

Look at the xbh rate; it’s a good bet he’ll have a lot of power. Hitting 18 HR for an 18 year old in A ball is pretty impressive on it’s own, but the 40 doubles and triples he hit will likely turn into even more HR power down the road. And the SO rate of 1 per 6.4 PA isn’t too bad either given his power and age at that level.

Still, I’m not sure he belongs quite this high yet. I’d like to see him do it again, or at least see better scouting buzz on him. I think in general we have a lot of 1B guys over rated who put up stats at lower levels. I think BA recently had him 10th best in the SAL. I’m not sure how that ends up top 40 (though BA is often wrong; but I’d like to see that argued then—are his tools, ceiling, or power projection, or simply his swing , so impressive that he belongs here? Or is it just that he put up good numbers alongside Montero, Stanton, etc. in that league, and they are on?)

by acerimusdux on Nov 6, 2008 7:31 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

i voted schafer again, by the way.

When they should be sacrifice bunting, they are buying effeminate designer jeans. When they should be fouling off pitches, they are masturbating. Always, they are masturbating.

by variablesdont on Nov 6, 2008 12:20 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I'm not sold on Schafer

He just looks like someone that will have a questionable bat in the bigs. The guy only hit .270 this year with a barely .200 IsoP. Yeah the glove is great, but he won’t play much if he can’t hit. The BB rate is nice, but the K rate was nothing special. Heck, he struck out in almost 30% of his AB’s.

Top 50 maybe, but I just cannot justify voting for Schafer here. I went with Wallace because I really believe in his bat, and he’ll likely play a passable 3B for a few years.

by guru4u on Nov 6, 2008 6:28 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Other - Yonder Alonso

21 years old
First round top 10 draft pick
Great Plate Discipline
Great College Resume at a high level program
Hitting .305/.430/.500 in the Hawaiian Winter League currently with 18 walks/18 strikeouts.

by dougdirt on Nov 6, 2008 12:21 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I am going to try to get him on the poll again soon.

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on Nov 6, 2008 12:22 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Whenever you feel its right

I am just campaigning for the big guy, who should, in my mind have been voted for.

by dougdirt on Nov 6, 2008 12:29 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

do you think alonso is such a better hitter than todd frazier

that the difference in positional scarcity is overtaken?

When they should be sacrifice bunting, they are buying effeminate designer jeans. When they should be fouling off pitches, they are masturbating. Always, they are masturbating.

by variablesdont on Nov 6, 2008 12:30 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Positional difference?

Todd Frazier is either a corner outfielder or first baseman. If he sticks at third, my bet is he is below average defensively there. He is currently.

That said, I think Todd Frazier is the Reds 4th best prospect behind Alonso, Soto and Stubbs (although I could flip he and Stubbs and would feel fine about that).

by dougdirt on Nov 6, 2008 1:07 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Yeah

I’m one of several people who’s been making arguments for more positional scarcity, but Frazier ain’t exactly the guy on the cover of our newsletter.

by aap212 on Nov 6, 2008 1:10 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

here's a question

if it’s a given that frazier will be moved to a corner outfield or 1B, why is he playing SS in sarasota or hawaii?

oh, and according to baseball reference. his SS in sarasota was quite passable.

When they should be sacrifice bunting, they are buying effeminate designer jeans. When they should be fouling off pitches, they are masturbating. Always, they are masturbating.

by variablesdont on Nov 6, 2008 1:25 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Baseball Reference has scouting reports on defense?

When did that happen? Last I checked all they offered for defensive stats were fielding percentage and range factor, which tell us very little about a defender’s overall defensive ability.

As for why he is playing SS, its because everyone needs to get playing time. Todd has played SS in the past and isn’t going to be lead footed out there, so in order to maximize his playing time and that of other guys deserving of it, he is playing there. One thing is for sure, Frazier will not be a shortstop. Third base, first base and a corner outfield spot of still options, but I am not too sure third is in his future defensively. Even Todd himself doesn’t know where he will play in the future, or at least thats what he told me a few weeks ago.

by dougdirt on Nov 6, 2008 1:54 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Daniel Murphy is playing 2B, Jesus Montero is still a catcher

Teams want to try guys at premium positions until they’re absolutely positive they can’t stick there. But while Frazier isn’t as sure a thing to move as Montero is, he’s really unlikely to be a middle infielder.

by aap212 on Nov 6, 2008 2:13 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

scouting reports? no

but, for a guy in A ball to have a .980 fielding % at SS says something about the potential for him to stick.

it might be an anomaly. he’s posted marks of .945 and .933 in rookie ball and low A, so it’s entirely possible that this was a biip, but if he can just field what he gets to…

there’s definitely a chance that he sticks at SS. it might not be very likely, but it cannot be written off, completely. is he really that much worse in the field than nomar was?

When they should be sacrifice bunting, they are buying effeminate designer jeans. When they should be fouling off pitches, they are masturbating. Always, they are masturbating.

by variablesdont on Nov 6, 2008 4:23 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Fielding percentage sucks

All it tells you is what a guy does with the balls he gets to. It doesn’t tell you anything at all about the balls he didn’t get to that someone else could have. Lots of guys are sure handed, but that doesn’t mean they are good fielders.

by dougdirt on Nov 6, 2008 5:16 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

how good do you think his bat could be?

i’m thinking he might be able to hit .300 with 30 HRs. if he can approach that, and make good plays on what he gets to while playing SS, how good would he be?

When they should be sacrifice bunting, they are buying effeminate designer jeans. When they should be fouling off pitches, they are masturbating. Always, they are masturbating.

by variablesdont on Nov 6, 2008 5:22 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Depends on his defense

but odds are that if he can hit like that, he would be much more valuable elsewhere on the field. I think he is more of a .280-.290 hitter with 20-25 HR power though.

by dougdirt on Nov 6, 2008 5:35 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

i understand the value of having a great defensive SS

but i also think that when a guy is decent enough to play it passably, like i believe frazier can be (and jason donald, too, just to insert that), it pays great dividends to keep his bat at a position where it plays plus-plus.

i’m a huge believer that you build a lineup around guys who are solid in the field. i think that when you’re starting from the bottom, as CIN is, you start with guys who just know what to do when the ball is in their hands.

frazier’s A+ fielding % at SS speaks to the fact that he knows what to do when the ball is in his hands.

When they should be sacrifice bunting, they are buying effeminate designer jeans. When they should be fouling off pitches, they are masturbating. Always, they are masturbating.

by variablesdont on Nov 6, 2008 5:46 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Right

but the problem is, Todd just isn’t going to get the ball in his hands often enough to stick at SS.

by dougdirt on Nov 6, 2008 5:52 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

i haven't seen him for a few years, but

i don’t think it’s beyond the pale to question whether someone who’s played SS for this long is now suddenly not capable enough to do so.

if he was this bad, this incompetent at getting to batted balls, and turning batted balls into outs, he’d have been moved off the position long ago.

maybe you’re right, and maybe it’s plainly obvious to anyone who’s seen him play in the last year, but i know what i’ve seen, and i’m not convinced that’s the case.

When they should be sacrifice bunting, they are buying effeminate designer jeans. When they should be fouling off pitches, they are masturbating. Always, they are masturbating.

by variablesdont on Nov 6, 2008 6:26 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

That's bogus logic

B.J. Upton was playing SS at Frazier’s age, and had been playing it his whole life. You want to argue that Upton should still be there?

by aap212 on Nov 6, 2008 6:41 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

upton vs. frazier

upton was the most physically impressive athlete in his draft class. usually that kind of player lands at SS or CF. he was also plucked out of HS, not the major college ranks.

my point is, if frazier was destined to move off of SS because he doesn’t have the range, i’m calling bollix (in the absence of evidence that he’s put on 20 lbs. since college), because he’d have been moved off the position sooner. he had the bat to play anywhere in the field, but he played SS. if he was so terrible, if he couldn’t move to his right, or if he could field the ball reliably, he’d have been moved to LF.

this isn’t evidence, and i don’t expect to convince anyone as such, i just think there;s a reason that he played SS in college, that he played SS in sarasota, that he played SS in hawaii, and there’s more to it than just they needed to get his bat into the lineup.

When they should be sacrifice bunting, they are buying effeminate designer jeans. When they should be fouling off pitches, they are masturbating. Always, they are masturbating.

by variablesdont on Nov 6, 2008 9:02 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Fine

I’ll disregard everything I’ve heard and read about the guy, and disregard the fact that the Reds are testing him out all over the place, because you say so. Lovely.

by aap212 on Nov 6, 2008 9:14 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

i'll leave it at this

if he plays himself off the position, i’ll understand it, but i don’t think he did that while in sarasota.

When they should be sacrifice bunting, they are buying effeminate designer jeans. When they should be fouling off pitches, they are masturbating. Always, they are masturbating.

by variablesdont on Nov 6, 2008 9:23 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Not a single scouting report

Suggests that Todd can stick at shortstop. Not one. The reason is because he can’t play shortstop well enough. He played SS in Sarasota because Juan Francisco plays third in Sarasota. Francisco has some serious defensive tools at third base and is a legit prospect in the Reds eyes. He is playing SS in Hawaii off and on, but hasn’t played in a week due to a concussion suffered while he was playing left field.

There is more to it than they need to get his bat into the lineup, he is also one of the guys who isn’t going to be a first baseman playing shortstop, so they go with the lesser of all the other evils to get a big bat in the line up.

by dougdirt on Nov 6, 2008 9:18 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

i want to respond, but i'll leave it for another day

i’ll just say that i think frazier’s bat is better than alonso’s, and i think there’s a not insignificant chance that frazier will stick at short.

When they should be sacrifice bunting, they are buying effeminate designer jeans. When they should be fouling off pitches, they are masturbating. Always, they are masturbating.

by variablesdont on Nov 6, 2008 9:27 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

If he sticks at SS

it will be because he was traded because the Reds don’t have plans for him at SS in the future. As for his bat being better than Alonso’s, we are going to disagree.

by dougdirt on Nov 6, 2008 9:50 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

on a side note,

doesn’t it suck that we won’t be able to answer any of these questions for another 5 months, at least.

i want baseball back.

When they should be sacrifice bunting, they are buying effeminate designer jeans. When they should be fouling off pitches, they are masturbating. Always, they are masturbating.

by variablesdont on Nov 6, 2008 10:17 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

+1

"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile

by Boxkutter on Nov 6, 2008 10:26 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

There is plenty of baseball still

Hawaii, Arizona, Dominican, Venezuelan and Mexican Winter Leagues are all under way and the Puerto Rican Winter League started tonight as well. Sucks that we can’t watch it unless we are there, but still plenty of baseball to follow.

by dougdirt on Nov 6, 2008 10:50 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Agreed

Personally I am not a fan of any defensive stats. While they are improving I still feel that the best way to judge a player’s defense is simply by observation.

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on Nov 6, 2008 4:27 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Other - Logan Morrison

2008 Season
Team League AVG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI TB BB SO SB CS OBP SLG OPS
JUP FSL .332 130 488 71 162 38 1 13 74 241 57 80 9 3 .402 .494 .896
Minors .332 130 488 71 162 38 1 13 74 241 57 80 9 3 .402 .494 .896

2008 Winter League
Team League AVG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI TB BB SO SB CS OBP SLG OPS
MSS AFL .448 16 67 16 30 5 2 5 22 54 0 9 1 0 .448 .806 1.254

How is he not on here yet?

by MightyMoose on Nov 6, 2008 12:37 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I like Morrison too

voted for santana and may have decided the chance of sticking at catcher makes him a tiny bit better, although Morrison has youth.

Howver, beginning to look like Morisson won’t get on the list until mid 40s, maybe low 40s, given the support levels for current candidates. I really think he should be higher on this list. he just went nowhere when he was on the list. he got more “others” in polls where he was just a tester than actual votes when he was a candidate.

From the way John talked about him seems like he’s a top 10-15 among position players to him.

In the AFL looks like his thinking is why take a walk when I can just rake. Yes, AFL stats don’t mean much, except to me when they seem of a piece with a player’s season overall.

by wobatus on Nov 6, 2008 2:49 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

+1

good insight. I tend to agree. As a newly turned 21yr old he is raking against solid prospects that have a wide skill set, some of which have played at much higher levels (including ML calibre pitching prospect – hughes/bucholz, etc.), so i think the AFL stats should be put in line with his big hear in the FSL.

by MightyMoose on Nov 6, 2008 2:59 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

+1

been saying for a while now he should be up there, people really under-rate how hard it is in the FSL to put up numbers like he has been putting up there.

by Fishfan79 on Nov 6, 2008 3:35 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Will Clark

I liken Morrison to Will Clark in his prime with more power. He’s not going to be Teixeira, but his left handed swing reminds me a bit of Clark and I think he’ll for high avg. with 25+ hrs annually.

by MightyMoose on Nov 6, 2008 5:16 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

You may disagree

but I believe in James McDonald.

Accidentally not thedude925 anymore. I do hate this new name.

by wildthang on Nov 6, 2008 12:48 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

+1

My vote too…guess that’s the only 2 of us.

by killa on Nov 6, 2008 12:53 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

-1

I believe in him, as in I believe he will be a major league starter. More a back end rotation guy with a ceiling as a #2. I look at the above list and would take Aumont, and Davis over him. I’d also take a guy like Jake Arrieta who i’m surprised isn’t on this list already and probably others too.

by RoyalsFan4Life on Nov 6, 2008 12:57 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Aumont over McDonald is insane

McDonald has more strikeouts and a better K/BB ratio and has reached the majors. Aumont is an injury-prone first year pitcher in low-A ball.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Nov 6, 2008 1:24 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

um

Kevin Goldstein at BP says he has ace stuff and compares him to Kevin Brown. The elbow injury was minor and he was shut down to be overly cautious. He’s also what 5yrs younger than McDonald? Give me a break, Aumont’s numbers, albeit limited, were outstanding for a kid that didn’t even start pitchin in high school.

by RoyalsFan4Life on Nov 6, 2008 1:27 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

He.
Is.
In.
Low.
A.

Are you actually disputing the concept that players who post numbers in higher leagues are far more likely to succeed in the majors, or just ignoring it completely?

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Nov 6, 2008 1:32 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Dallas McPherson

Hit 39 Hr’s in AAA this year, are you going to make the same case for him??

by RoyalsFan4Life on Nov 6, 2008 1:47 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

42hr's haha even more!

perhaps Lou Montanez and Nelson Cruz should also be on here?

by RoyalsFan4Life on Nov 6, 2008 1:48 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Asinine

Although I rarely agree with PT, I think he is right in this situation. And bringing up career AAAA players who are closer to 30 than 20 doesn’t help your cause. I am a Mariner fan and there is no way I take Aumont over McDonald. McDonald is a sure thing right now. If Aumont turns into McDonald in 5 years, he will be a successful prospect. What are the actual odds of him being the “ace” that Goldstein says? 5? 10?

I don’t know if you play poker… but pot odds are not on Aumont’s side if he is in a hand against McDonald.

"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile

by Boxkutter on Nov 6, 2008 1:55 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Box

I respect your opinion. Just to be clear PT said players who post numbers in higher leagues are far more likely to succeed in the majors whereas the above names have posted fantastic numbers and it doesn’t co-relate. McDonald was a 23yr old who performed pretty well relative to his age in the league. I don’t think he was dominant.

There’s a reason Aumont went as high in the draft as he did. I agree with you, he is raw, but I disagree about his upside being James McDonald-esque. If he is able to put it together than I think he is not a back end rotation guy and could definitely be a front end guy

by RoyalsFan4Life on Nov 6, 2008 2:16 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Interesting Discussion

I tend to agree with RoyalsFan on this one. I’m not a big fan of Aumont right now, but I’ve read he’s got the raw stuff to be a top starter. that is a might and it could be a few years away, but as an 18-19yr old in the Mid West he was fantastic. I don’t think its that much of stretch at all to see him as a far superior talent than McDonald. I’m not much of a fan of McDonald either. he put up good numbers but it’s not like he was that young for his league.

by MightyMoose on Nov 6, 2008 2:22 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

italics

was just supposed to be on – might.

by MightyMoose on Nov 6, 2008 2:27 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Thoughts

I agree with PT that numbers in higher leagues are very important. However, if you only look at the numbers you will often be misled. Often scouting reports will tell far more about a player then their stat line. Some guys like Hanley always have the tools but not often the motivation to put them together. Personally I like to find guys with impressive numbers and then read their scouting reports to determine what kind of upside they have. With pitching, a guy can have amazing AAA numbers but it is pretty much accepted that he will have lots of troubles with MLB hitters.

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on Nov 6, 2008 2:58 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Dude, citing a bunch of guys who are way too old for their league

is not real impressive when you’re talking a guy, McDonald, who is par or younger than the average prospect in his league.

FWIW, though, if I had to pick sight unseen between having Nelson Cruz in my system and having Phillippe Aumont in my system, I’d pick Cruz every day of the week and twice on Sunday. (I wouldn’t say that about McPherson.)

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Nov 6, 2008 3:49 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I'll take

KG and the vast amount of scouts he talks to over you every day of the week and twice on sunday.

by RoyalsFan4Life on Nov 6, 2008 4:00 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Also "dude"

Are you actually disputing the concept that players who post numbers in higher leagues are far more likely to succeed in the majors, or just ignoring it completely

If you meant players posting numbers in higher leagues relative to their age, than you should say that.

by RoyalsFan4Life on Nov 6, 2008 4:04 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

OK, so, apparently when I'm conversing with you

I can’t take as given that you’re aware of certain fundamentally obvious facts that anyone on the site should know.

I’ll keep that in mind.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Nov 6, 2008 6:00 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

uh

so the fact that Aumont as an 18 yr old pitched extremely well in A Ball makes you think that he won’t dominate at double A or at a higher level as he gets older? Why don’t you look at McDonald’s stats in A Ball and compare? He’s 4-5 yrs younger than McDonald. Age relative to performance, Aumont is on a higher plateau than McDonald.

i’ll keep it mind that you’re retarded.

by RoyalsFan4Life on Nov 6, 2008 6:42 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

No Need For Name Calling...

As for McDonald’s age, I do believe he was a hitter for awhile, and has only recently (last three seasons) been pitching… any Dodger fans are free to correct me. So the Age Relative to League thing with him doesn’t really fly with him. In fact, I think the fact that he is a little older might help him some since he is further along on the injury-prone years and has a better shot of coming out unscathed.

"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile

by Boxkutter on Nov 6, 2008 7:03 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Very much so

and ARL is overrated for pitchers anyway…

In any case, as I said, it’s not like he’s fucking 30. He’s 23 in AAA. There is nothing whatsoever the matter with a player being 23 in AAA. You’d be ruling damn nearly every college pitching prospect out as a potential MLB player if you deemed 23 in AAA to be “too old.”

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Nov 6, 2008 9:52 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Don't understand this list

there are 9 players already who are either stuck at first, or will be a DH with zero defensive value for a team. That isn’t including Snider (might stick in the OF), Alvarez (prob stick at 3rd) or Stanton(probably will).

Then there is Elvis Andrus who batted .297 (very nice for his age and league) but struck out 91 times in 483 AB, had just 25 XBH all year (which is 17.4% of the time), and had a BABIP over .350. There are three outcomes, he either progresses with age and has a moves up (probable), his numbers decrease as he moves up as league, or he stagnates and doesn’t get any better than he is today. I’d say the first choice is more likely.

So whats that make him? Jason Bartlett with plus defense? Today’s Orlando Cabrera? At best this year’s Christan Guzman?

I don’t see him being someone hitting .300-.320, walking 70 times, with ANY pop. Is this just me? What do people actually expect out of him? Is he purely ARL?

I’m asking for a serious response, not a drubbing of people calling me stupid.

Remember: baseball guys... baseball...

by Metty5 on Nov 6, 2008 12:54 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I think you're right

The minors are insanely rich with first basemen right now, which is part of what’s happening. But I count seven or eight first basemen on the list already, and people are clamoring for Morrison, Flowers, Freeman, and Wallace. It’s a bit out of control, and a reason why I think Schafer is being undervalued. Between what it takes for a first baseman to be a true star and the attrition rates of catchers, there’s a very good chance this list looks like a disaster a few years down the line.

by aap212 on Nov 6, 2008 1:00 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

In case you missed it

Rangers fans (NOT all) stuffed the ballots, according to posts on LSB. I agree there’s no way Andrus should be where he is. I’d put him in 40-50 range personally more for his age and performance relative to his league. I don’t think he’s going to be an offensive force, but he plays at a premium position and if he becomes an Orlando Cabrera in his prime the Rangers would be pretty pleased with that.

by RoyalsFan4Life on Nov 6, 2008 1:02 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

just curious on the 40-50 Range...

last year…

BA 19
Keith Law 31
MLB.com 38
Top Prospect 43
Mound talk 49
Projec Prospect 52
Scouting Book 54

All of those are before this season. So you are saying just for clarification that even with the massive attrition in the minor league lists due to promotion that Andrus should drop for the season he had not increase?

Just making sure where you are coming from, because you heavily disagree with a large portion of the national experts.

I could agree last year, but not this year.

by laxtonto on Nov 6, 2008 1:15 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Andrus was a BAD hitter this season

There’s no reason why he shouldn’t be moved down on people’s lists.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Nov 6, 2008 1:18 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Bad hitter?

How was he a bad hitter? He hit around 300 with a 350 OBP. That’s quite good for someone his age in AA. Or do you expect all hitters to have a 500 SLG? Is that why you consider him a bad hitter? You can’t paint all hitters with the same brush, you have to look at lead-off/speed guys differently. If they can slug 400, then they did a great job.

"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile

by Boxkutter on Nov 6, 2008 1:51 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Agreed

Also, would people please remember that he is a 19 year old shortstop in AA. Age matters when it comes to ranking prospects. If he was allowed to hit in his age appropriate league, A-, then people would probably be in awe of the performance he would have put on. I am not the biggest Andrus fan but stating he was a “BAD hitter” is just plain wrong.

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on Nov 6, 2008 3:01 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

He struck out far too often to sustain his batting average

Getting lucky does not make you a good hitter, it makes you a lucky hitter. Lucky hitters do not stay lucky.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Nov 6, 2008 3:50 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Bad hitter v Good Hitter

I don’t believe he is a bad hitter, but I wouldn’t say he is a good one either. With his speed and his singles(lack of XBH) tendencies his BABIP will only drop with the increase in his competitions’ fielding competency. Not to mention that it is high in the first place.

Is he really projectable? Sure he is young and playing in a high level, but I’m not sure as a SS that his body is going to fill out considerably more. If it does fill out more, than what? Is he hitting 15 HR rather than 10? When projecting for power I look for a high XBH%, and his doubles don’t appear to overwhelm me where I believe that’ll he’ll ever reach the 40+ 2B, 20+ HR level.

The best thing I see with him is the differential in his career and this year’s Line Drive, Moving up 4.1 That could be a little fluky and also because of his 2006, but we’ll see how he does in the following years.

Remember: baseball guys... baseball...

by Metty5 on Nov 6, 2008 4:20 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

LD rates in the minors are screwy and should not be given any weight

unless you’re comparing a guy to the league average in his own league. Different leagues have different scorekeepers who credit line drives at vastly different rates. It’s akin to trying, in basketball, to evaluate assists in college point guards.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Nov 6, 2008 6:02 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Doubles and Homers...

As a lead-off hitter… I don’t look for homers and doubles from that player. Doubles I like, but I could care less if they ever hit a HR. How many lead-off hitters hit 20HR a season? Han-Ram, Granderson, Sizemore, and Soriano off the top of my head… and most of them would be better suited as 3 hitters instead of leading off. How many lead-off men hit 40 doubles in a year? Probably less than the 20HR club since only 26 players last year hit 40 or more doubles.

If Andrus hits 8-10HR a year and about 25 doubles, while still stealing 45+ bases and having a line in the 300/350/400 area and playing great defense, I think he ends up being one of the better SSs in baseball.

"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile

by Boxkutter on Nov 6, 2008 7:19 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Sure... if you believe he's capable of posting that line...

I find it pretty farfetched, myself. .270/.320/.340 is more likely.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Nov 6, 2008 10:04 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Well . . .

Full-season OPS by year:

2006: .684
2007, Myrtle Beach: .665
2007, Bakerfield: .742
2008: .717

So if you’re going by raw statistical production, then yeah, not a good hitter this year. But considering the steep jump in competition and his age, plus the fact that he actually improved his production level from the year before, I can’t really complain just yet. In fact, I think I’d rather jump on the guy’s bandwagon after this year than jump off it.

by mrkupe on Nov 6, 2008 2:42 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Look at his month to month stats

in Frisco, vast improvement over the course of the year, a good sign for such a young player. He’s for real.

G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....

by t ball on Nov 6, 2008 3:51 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

lax

I guess i look more from a fantasy perspective. I think the experts noted above will heavily factor in Andrus’ defense which is outstanding. Also, I’m sure they’ll have him ahead of guys like Beckham, Smoak, Hosmer, but to me, those guys have the potential to be all-stars. I just don’t see the same in Andrus. Solid regular yes, but his bat is not projected to be all-star worthy. Hope that helps clarify where i’m coming from.

by RoyalsFan4Life on Nov 6, 2008 1:23 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Well, I understand the ideas for fantasy value

but, defense has to be taken into the equation for the MLB roster. Not to mention Andrus would at least give you the hard to find steals category, considering the hard to fill SS position depending on the rules determining positional qualifiers

I think a lot of the disagreements fall here fall along the lines of fantasy value vs. positional value vs. overall skill set.

by laxtonto on Nov 7, 2008 12:10 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Andrus

I think he’s Tony Fernandez with slightly less pop.

by jparks77 on Nov 6, 2008 1:02 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Gotta love Tony

He was the most underrated shortstop of his generation. He had an unbelievable glove and an even more unbelievable love of triples. It was so much fun watching Tony trying to stretch doubles into triples in the late 1980’s. Jays fans miss his classic swing which started whith him barely holding onto the bat and then smacking the ball into the gap.

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on Nov 6, 2008 1:08 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Trader!

KBR, I thought you were a Royals fan? Shame on you, it must have been tough watching Tony lose to my Royals in that classic series.

Also, i don’t think the Fernandez comp. for Andrus is that bad either. AGain, i’m sure the Rangers would be thrilled if he turned into either a Cabrera or Fernandez type.

by RoyalsFan4Life on Nov 6, 2008 1:12 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

You mean traitor?

That really confused me for a minute.

by aap212 on Nov 6, 2008 1:16 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

geez

hooked on phonics worked for me. thanks for the correction.

by RoyalsFan4Life on Nov 6, 2008 1:19 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Mmmm... that's good Tony Love

But let’s remember: If Andrus is the next Orlando Cabrera, his ranking is probably about right.

On the Tony Fernandez front, one plus for Andrus is that he would be a better base stealer. Fernandez was just a lousy base stealer.

by aap212 on Nov 6, 2008 1:16 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Omar Visquel

I think he comps well with Omar Visquel, he is an amazing defender. Plus, I believe he has more offensive potential than Visquel ever had. And lets remember, Visquel was a multiple time all star.

by wolviex18 on Nov 6, 2008 6:36 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

stanton

He is a CF and has the raw tools to perhaps even stick there if nothing else yes he will be an OF somewhere but perhaps moved there because the team has maybin already in CF. Still you are right now debating a CF and tossing him on a lost about 1B and DH? seems a little weird there.

by Fishfan79 on Nov 6, 2008 3:37 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Really?

He played more games in right than center this year, and I’ve never heard anybody else buy him as a centerfielder.

by aap212 on Nov 6, 2008 3:46 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

RF

He has an arm of a right fielder,a very nice strong arm. why they like him over there as well. Plus with Maybin hard to put him into center for the future in the big leagues. Still he is an amazingly good athlete, was a 3 sport star in HS.

by Fishfan79 on Nov 6, 2008 6:31 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Carlos Santana

Voted for him, not because I’m an Indians fan, but because he had such an amazing season and will likely stay behind the plate. Even if he doesn’t, he has enough athleticism to play 3rd or the OF. The only knock on him is that he came out of nowhere and wasn’t particularly young for his league. Another thing I found peculiar as well was his low LD% when he was with the Dodgers, but during his stint with the Indians it went up 19,5% which is pretty good.

Either way there are still some question marks, but the same goes for everyone else on this poll and Santana has quite alot of upside playing a premium position.

by JP_Frost on Nov 6, 2008 1:24 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Other - Jeremy Hellickson

But I voted Davis because he’s the highest of the guys who are on my list at the moment.

Next 5:

1) Jeremy Hellickson
2) Logan Morrison
3) Gordon Beckham
4) Wade Davis
5) Jeff Samardzija

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Nov 6, 2008 3:41 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Jeff Samardzija

I’ve been meaning to add him as a tester for a while. Somebody brought him up a while ago and it just slipped my mind. I will try to get him on a poll soon.

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on Nov 6, 2008 4:05 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Beckham, Gordon

John’s take from Arizona was not that flattering.

by wobatus on Nov 6, 2008 4:07 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

i'd take Davis over Hellickson

but that’s a nice dilemma for the Rays

by MightyMoose on Nov 6, 2008 4:11 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Samardzija

I’m impressed with his progress this year, but I think he’s only a reliever, which has to push him down the list.

by aap212 on Nov 6, 2008 4:14 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Possibly

Having watched him in college, I think he can be a prime Marcus Giles type. I doubt he sticks at short though, I think he’s a 2B long-term.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Nov 6, 2008 7:14 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Other - Admiral Ackbar

Pros:
Field General
Good instincts
Senses traps

Cons:
Part Fish

by sourstuff on Nov 6, 2008 4:13 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Hmmmmm

I do like the fact that he has unbelievable peripheral vision. That should definitely help him when back catching.

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on Nov 6, 2008 4:20 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

+1

I hear he is good at spotting pick off plays as well.

“It’s a trapp!!!”

by Fishfan79 on Nov 6, 2008 6:31 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Fernando

until he’s in once again. He’s gonna end up being one of the most underrated guys on the list. My prediction is that he’ll be top 10 on next year’s list and we’ll be wondering where we went wrong.

by supermets on Nov 6, 2008 4:56 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

if he's still on this list next year,

then there’s no way he will have been underrated this year.

When they should be sacrifice bunting, they are buying effeminate designer jeans. When they should be fouling off pitches, they are masturbating. Always, they are masturbating.

by variablesdont on Nov 6, 2008 5:08 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Why?

How does that make sense at his age? If he has a great consolidation year, stays healthy, and rakes in double-A, he’ll be a top ten prospect next year and will still be eligible.

by aap212 on Nov 6, 2008 6:05 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

it's risk vs. reward

i agree that f-mart could break out in a big way next year, but that’s not a given, and it has to be weighted as such.

i don;t know anyone who thinks that fmart will OPS .800 in the majors next season, and that’s the only way that i’d retroactively go back and say that a prospect should have been rated higher. just because f-mart might tear up AA next year in his third go-round doesn’t mean that he should be in the top 10, or the top 40, right now.

When they should be sacrifice bunting, they are buying effeminate designer jeans. When they should be fouling off pitches, they are masturbating. Always, they are masturbating.

by variablesdont on Nov 6, 2008 6:39 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Wait, what?

So you only think guys should be top 40 prospects if they can put up an 800 OPS in the majors the next year? That’s really stupid, sorry.

by aap212 on Nov 6, 2008 6:44 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

No...

He is saying that the only way he would regret not putting Martinez higher is if he put up an 800OPS in the majors next year. Unless he does that, variables doesn’t think he will change his tune that he doesn’t belong this high.

I agree with him. After three seasons in the pros now, Martinez should have some production to go with the projection. And as a corner OF, his numbers look even worse.

"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile

by Boxkutter on Nov 6, 2008 7:24 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

What if

he were to have an .800 OPS in AAA next year.

He’s not going to be in AA again. I’m pretty sure the Mets announced that.

by supermets on Nov 6, 2008 8:51 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

nope.

if he’s a top 10, hell, top 5 prospect at this time next year, there is still absolutely no way that i would go back and call him underrated, because he won’t have proved it against the highest level of competition. there’s still too much room, too much time, for him to flame out. and even if he becomes a perennial all star, if he doesn’t do it next year, there’s still way too much development time between this list’s creation and his ascension to completely disregard the fact that, at this time, he’s not that good.

i know that these lists are about projection, but right now, there’s too much risk for him to rate higher. and looking back 3 years from now won’t change that fact.

When they should be sacrifice bunting, they are buying effeminate designer jeans. When they should be fouling off pitches, they are masturbating. Always, they are masturbating.

by variablesdont on Nov 6, 2008 9:19 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Vitters

then Schafer/Fmart/Wallace. Vitters is getting way underrated at this point.

by PrincetonCubs on Nov 6, 2008 5:23 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

nah

if anything he’s prospect status slipped for me this year. he was injured and the Cubs didn’t move him from Boise. Yes he did well there, but c’mon 2 years in and still at Short Season? Moustakas looks like a man among boys, Vitters still looks like a boy among men. Obviously he’s still really young, so there’s no question that he can still put it together. I don’t think he’s a stretch here, but way underrated i don’t think that’s true.

by MightyMoose on Nov 6, 2008 5:32 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

agree with MM

I think Vitters should be around 50 with a chance to really move up the next year, but his numbers weren’t that great in SS ball.

by VanillaGorilla on Nov 6, 2008 5:39 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Schafer

I don’t see the reason for his support this early. Yes, he produced after the suspension, but that cloud will continue to hang over his head, and the next time he gets busted it will be for 100 games. I just don’t think people are properly accounting for the risk involved with a known PED user… particular if the new test for hGH is implemented any time soon. Or if longitudinal testing comes about… Or if MLB starts freezing and storing samples…

by GuyinNY on Nov 6, 2008 6:26 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Why I assume he'll use again?

Lots of PED users have kept playing ball afterwards.

by aap212 on Nov 6, 2008 6:45 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

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