Community Prospect List: #33 (Run-off)

by the pinstripes on Nov 5, 2008 11:08 AM EST Comment 44 comments

After 275 votes it's time to have our third community prospect run-off between Mat Gamel who recieved 17% of the vote and Jesus Montero who garnered 16% ...........

We'll call a winner after the 200th vote or as soon as either of kingbilly or I log back in after the 200th vote is cast.

Who's the better prospect Mat Gamel or Jesus Montero?

FILLER, FILLER, FILLER, FILLER, FILLER, FILLER , FILLER, FILLER, FILLER, FILLER, FILLER, FILLER, FILLER, FILLER

Poll

Who is the #33 Community Prospect?

Jesus Montero

126 votes

Mat Gamel

146 votes

272 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs | Comment 44 comments

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Comments

Montero

gets my vote

I heard Tim Lincecum will win 1 Cy Young & 11 Tim Lincecums. Question is, how many Cole Hamels will he win?

by the pinstripes on Nov 5, 2008 11:09 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Geez

I wouldn’t have voted either.

Montero, with as little enthusiasm as imaginable…

by aCone419 on Nov 5, 2008 11:12 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

+1 on all counts

by aap212 on Nov 5, 2008 12:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

+1

by PHGold09 on Nov 5, 2008 1:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Montero

Even though I see him as a first baseman, he is still a better prospect than Gamel. Real close right now, 30 to 29 lead for Gamel.

www.redsminorleagues.com

by dougdirt on Nov 5, 2008 11:58 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Montero

His numbers and scouting reports speak for themselves:

.326 AVG
.491 SLG
.867 OPS
17 HR

Scouts rave about his swing and believe that his bat will play at either 1B, OF, or DH down the line. John Sickels stated:

"He is still just 18, and hitting like this in a full-season league is an excellent marker at that age."

Kevin Goldstein loves his bat saying "Wonderful offensive prospect who projects to hit for average and power. " When asked if scouts believe that Montero’s power is an 80 on the scouting scale he said "By some, absolutely. It’s monster power."

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on Nov 5, 2008 12:01 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Montero

I just made it even, this is becoming an extremely interesting race.

by MartyMcFly on Nov 5, 2008 12:05 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Gamel's fielding and strikeouts

I hope everyone understands that Gamel is not playing 1B in the majors. His fielding is so bad that he will be lucky to crack 1B or even LF. He has 123 errors in 360 career minor league games. He also has a career .878 fielding percentage.

What is more telling that while he may currently hit for average he does have a strong propensity to strike out. This season he had 121 k’s in 529 minor league at bats compared to only 83 in 525 for Montero. Make the smart choice and put your faith in Jesus!!!!

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on Nov 5, 2008 12:06 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I went Montero

would go for Morrison next. Then Santana.

by wobatus on Nov 5, 2008 12:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

+1

Didn;t know that, and its quite a good bit of info. So are you calling him a DH of the future?

by MartyMcFly on Nov 5, 2008 12:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Hard to say

As long as he is with the Brew Crew they will need to find a place for him. Unless Braun, or Fielder is moved I don’t know where he fits. Perhaps he will be traded in a package to acquire a SP if/when Sabathia leaves. Perhaps they can try him in RF but I doubt he has the arm for it and they already have a solid OF in Hart playing that position.

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on Nov 5, 2008 12:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Uggh

None of the above?

I guess I’ll take the guy that’s hit AA.

The Dodgers won't win a playoff series until the Cool-a-Coo returns.

by mckeeno on Nov 5, 2008 12:24 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

They're both 1B

So give me the one with power upside in Montero.

by aap212 on Nov 5, 2008 12:46 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

basically...

you’re looking at don mattingly upside….offensively….not defensively….

or you’re looking at jason giambi in his prime upside….

whichever your preference is….

Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results.

by biggentleben on Nov 5, 2008 1:01 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Sort of

I think Gamel’s upside looks a bit like second-tier Mattingly—like his career lines, essentially. I’m not confident Gamel will ever have the power to slug like Mattingly did from 1984-1987.

Also, while Mattingly and Giambi were both elite hitters at their best, I think it’s easier to project Giambi’s type of skills from a minor leaguer. That kind of power seems more of a sure thing to keep up as he moves up. Of course, Montero already looks like a guy I wouldn’t want after his 30th birthday, but that’s another story entirely.

by aap212 on Nov 5, 2008 1:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

montero

the other guy who kept going through my head as a comp statistically was richie sexson, though sexson never had the .300+ BA that giambi did at his peak, but he wasn’t a BA drain like someone with similar skillset, like an adam dunn, for instance, until late in his career….but once he soured, he went bad FAST….

Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results.

by biggentleben on Nov 5, 2008 2:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Difference between Dunn/Sexson and Montero

Montero does not strike out nearly as much. His 83 k’s in 525 at bats is very promising for an 18 year old power hitter in full season ball.

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on Nov 5, 2008 2:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Mattingly

Logan Morison looks m,ore like mattingly. I’d give Gamel Ron Blomberg. :)

by wobatus on Nov 5, 2008 2:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Even Mattingly's career numbers were awfully good

A 127 OPS+ over 14 years is nothing to sneeze at – It’s tied for 194th on the all-time list. And that’s with his significant decline after age 28 – until then, he looked like he had a real chance to be one of the best hitters in a while.

TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems

by OldProspects on Nov 5, 2008 4:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

yeah

before his back problems he was great. Gamel? He’ll never be that good. I was just throwing morrison out as a more apt comparison, but wouldn’t want to hang tha weight around his neck yet.

by wobatus on Nov 5, 2008 4:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Gamel looks to me like a regular good hitter but little more

Considering his defensive difficulties, I guess I still think he’s an above average prospect, but not very much more than that. Morrison I don’t understand at all.

TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems

by OldProspects on Nov 5, 2008 4:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Gamel was hurt

Have to admit i hadn’t follwed too closely. he had a monster first half then had elbow tendinitis. Maybe he is a better hitter than i thought, but he’s not as young as Morrison. Morrison put up his numbers at age 20 in a picher’s league in a pitcher’s park.

Mattingly at his peak though was extremely good. Unfair to put that on most young players. Like, say travis lee.

by wobatus on Nov 5, 2008 4:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yes, but

Over the first three months his BABIP was .430,.412, and .475. It’s true that he did also show an awful lot of power, whose dissipation over the next few months might have been simply a function of his injury. That being said, he never showed that power before, and I’d like to see more than 2 months of it before believing it’s for real. Either way, he’s clearly a good hitter, and might even be an oustanding one, but I’m not yet convinced.

TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems

by OldProspects on Nov 5, 2008 7:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

King Billy Royal

I suggested this in a previous thread, but after seeing a couple of people ask questions in the last poll, I want to throw it out there again. When you take a tester off the list, it might help if you list them seperately and with the poll they were last on and the % they polled next to the name. It would keep people from asking for a tester for a guy that has been on multiple times, like Logan Morrison for example.

Just a thought, but it might be helpful, especially to those who don’t read all of every poll.

"So's your mom"-David Sloane

by gatling on Nov 5, 2008 1:14 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Thoughts

I appreciate the suggestion but as of right now I am going to leave it as is. I don’t want to make any large changes since we have already completed polls for 33 players.

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on Nov 5, 2008 1:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Confused

How is it a “large change”? It’s just a different way to list the guys when you type the original post. Instead of just listing the group of testers, you put the poll # and vote % next to guys that have been on the poll. Would cut down on people asking the same question multiple times.

"So's your mom"-David Sloane

by gatling on Nov 5, 2008 1:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Honestly

It is more work for me and I am already spending way too much time on these. I appreciate your suggestion but I am not going to make the change this season.

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on Nov 5, 2008 1:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Ok

Seems it would take about the same time as answering 3 questions a poll about getting so and so a tester when they were on 4 polls ago, but that’s fine.

Good work on the polls.

"So's your mom"-David Sloane

by gatling on Nov 5, 2008 2:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Gamel

Gamel played this season at THIRD BASE. Not first. While he was a terrible defender at 3B, I haven’t heard any convincing argument why he wouldn’t be an acceptable fielder in an OF corner or at 1B.

There’s much more beyond Gamel than his sick stats – even before he broke up stats wise, his level swing has received much praise from John et al.

I'll warm up with you anytime

by ufoboy90 on Nov 5, 2008 1:35 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I meant to type 3B

My point is that he has no shot at 3B in the majors. I don’t see how he plays 1B or a corner OF position in Milwaukee with their current roster. Also, his bat plays much better at 3B then at 1B or in the OF. At those positions he is merely an average hitter. Also while Gamel may receive praise from John, it certainly doesn’t compare with the love Montero receives from scouts.

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on Nov 5, 2008 1:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

From Kevin Goldstein

Goldstein states:

“I like Gamel, but I’m not totally enamored with him. I think a move SOMEWHERE is a foregone conclusions because he’s pretty dreadful at third — think worse than Ryan Braun. As a hitter, he doesn’t have a ton of power, more of an average/doubles guy — and that’s not as good in an outfield corner. Again, very GOOD prospect, not great prospect.”

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/chat/chat.php?chatId=488

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on Nov 5, 2008 1:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Gamel supporters?

You guys are winning the poll, but nobody (almost) is owning up.

by aCone419 on Nov 5, 2008 3:13 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Simple for me

I’m somewhat risk-averse when it comes to prospects, and Gamel is a helluva lot closer to MLB than Montero. His defense is a major concern, but his bat will play, even if he has to change leagues and DH. Projection is nice, but Gamel is a position away from being a stud, and his floor, IMO, is still a guy who can help your bench.

by mraver on Nov 5, 2008 3:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

+1

I like both Gamel and Montero… but the deciding factor for me here was the proximity to the majors.

"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile

by Boxkutter on Nov 5, 2008 3:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

This is a bad runoff

I voted Montero but maybe I shouldn’t have. I don’t think either of these guys should be going here. Gamel is epically incompetent defensively, and it’s not clear Montero is much better. They’re easily— easily— 20 runs worse than Schafer defensively, probably closer to 30. In a neutral park you’re looking at 100-150 points of OPS in terms of the defensive difference.

Anyone want to come out and state that those guys will, categorically, be that much better than Schafer or Escobar on offense in the majors? Anyone?

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Nov 5, 2008 3:19 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Leave Escobar out of that part

You’re absolutely on point about Schafer here. I think Escobar is a much, much worse offensive player, and you really need to get into defense and positional value to argue him here (which is fine, just separate).

I go Schafer or Fernando Martinez here. It troubles me that Gamel and Montero both project as 1B, that Gamel has an offensive ceiling short of a real star in my mind, and that Montero is so far away. Schafer will be a centerfielder and maybe even a flat-out better hitter than either of these guys. Martinez will be a good corner outfielder and has a more interesting upside than either.

by aap212 on Nov 5, 2008 3:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

F-Mart and Shafer

From everything i hear, Schafer needs to be platooned right now. And I am in the “Completely underwhelmed” camp when it comes to Fernando Martinez. What does everyone see in him? Sure he is young for his league and is supposed to be really good… but sooner or later I want to see some numbers. He has never hit double digit homers in a minor league stop (is that really corner OF material), and he can’t seem to stay healthy. F-Mart has only hit 300 once in any extended stay at a level and that was two years ago in LoA. He has never slugged 500 in any extended action. He doesn’t seem to be able to steal bases with a great propensity. To me his numbers scream “Fourth OF”.

I like the scouting reports, but sooner or later you are going to have to do something with all that talent.

"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile

by Boxkutter on Nov 5, 2008 4:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

he needs a consolidation year, but

i’ve come around on him, regardless. i think he can be damn good, and while i think i’d rather have schafer, i’m not 100% sure i wouldn’t trade him straight up for f-mart.

When they should be sacrifice bunting, they are buying effeminate designer jeans. When they should be fouling off pitches, they are masturbating. Always, they are masturbating.

by variablesdont on Nov 5, 2008 4:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

If Schafer is an All-Star hitter against righties and an anemic glove man against lefties,

it’s not much if at all worse than if he was better balanced. It’s not hard to find a decent right-handed defense-first center fielder (eg Rajai Davis) to platoon with him. Or you can just drop him in the lineup against lefties.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Nov 5, 2008 7:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Maybe... I think Escobar is more like 30-40 runs better defensively though...

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Nov 5, 2008 7:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

That sounds like an awful lot

TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems

by OldProspects on Nov 5, 2008 7:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

It does, doesn't it?

But the thing is, SS to 1B is about 20 runs right there, and it wouldn’t surprise me in the least if Escobar was a +10 run shortstop and Gamel a -5 run 1B.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Nov 5, 2008 10:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

not gamel

don’t like the strikeout progression, doesn’t have a position – he’d go about 15 spots lower imo, so i went Montero even though I’m not enamored with either

by uwbadger on Nov 5, 2008 4:52 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Montero

Is it just me, or are people being a little harsh on Gamel’s bat here? Who knows where he slots in with the glove, but geez that dude seems to hit just fine. I can’t nitpick anything about a steady track record of year-to-year improvement, or a .932 OPS in AA at age 22. Hard to please some here, I suppose . . .

I did go with Montero, as he seems to be a better hitter than Gamel at the same point in development, and I imagine there’s a higher production upside, especially after he moves out from behind the plate.

by mrkupe on Nov 5, 2008 5:12 PM EST reply actions 0 recs