Seattle Mariners Top 10
by VanillaGorilla on Nov 3, 2008 11:11 PM EST
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PrintHey all, I was hoping for a little feedback on a Mariners top 10 prospect list I have started to work on. comments and critiques would be much appreciated. Pitchers stats are ERA/Kper9/BBper9. I think the M's have a nice top 10 but it really thins ut after that. Not a lot of pitching depth either, I only had 3 in the top 15, but maybe I am short changing one of the 2008 draftees
1. Michael Suanders OF .AAA 277/.357/.461 - Saunders may not have the ceiling of the next few prospects, but I think his floor is much higher. His AAA numbers weren't very strong, but its only 24 games and they were broken up around injuries and the Olympics. Probably in the top 40 or so prospects in baseball
2. Phillippe Aumont SP A- 2.75/8.08/3.07 - Very high ceiling. Potentially a future #1 or strong #2. His K numbers were good and his BB were better than I thought they would be. missed time because of elbow problems and doesn't have much of a track record, but is just scratching the surface of what he could do. I think a year from now we could be talking about him as one of the top 5-7 pitching prospects in baseball if his elbow holds up. Probbaly in the 40-45 range of prospects.
3. Carlos Triunfel SS .A+ 287/.336/.406 - struggled early both on and off the field then got really hot before cooling off again. Overall his season was a disappointment. He was expected to put up much better power numbers in High Desert. Only 32 XBH in 108 games, but he is still very young for his level and his bat has plenty of time and should be special. His lack of Ks look very nice at his age. He should go back to HD, but may be pushed to AA, probably just outside the top 50 prospects.
4. Greg Halman OF AA .272/.326/.528 - His ceiling is huge. Based on ceiling alone he should be a top 15 prospect but his strikeouts and pitch recognition are a huge problem. His floor is probably lower than almost any other prospect you'll see ranked around him. Could be the next Alfonso Soriano or flame out as a .150/.150/.250 hitter at the big league level. Power and speed combo is one of te best in milb. His pitch recognition keep him outside the top 75 for me, but he could improve on that over the next 2 seasons and rank much higher. 1 year removed from completely falling on his face at low A ball
5. Adam Moore C AA .319/.396/.506 - Looks to have a great bat for a catcher but he faces a couple problems. He will be 25 early next season, but hasn't yet made AAA, his defense is said to be subpar and he may be blocked by Johjima, Clement and Johnson. Though either he or Clement could move to DH, but he would lose a lot of value then. If he sticks at Cathcer he may have an all-star level stick. He is the only guy on this list that isn't age appropriate or young for his league.
6. Juan Ramirez SP A- 4.14/8.20/2.76 - Was 19 for most of the season and had his ups and downs, but pretty good for his first full season league. His peripherals were close to Pineda's but his ERA and W-L were much worse. Supposedly strong fastball, but secondary stuff needs work (like most 19 yo) probably at least 3 years away but his ceiling is high and if he flames out as a starter could be a strong late inning reliever
7. Michael Pineda SP A- 1.95/8.33/2.28 - Kind of came out of nowhere this year to be the best of a prospect laden rotation in Wisconsin. Finished with a 14 K shutout in his final appearance to really put a punctuation on his season. Most reports have his ceiling to be less than Ramirez' but has more polish currently. Probably best case is a strong #3 starter, but he's 18 and still many years away
8. Matt Tuiasosopo 3B MLB .281/.364/.453 - Still only 22 and finally showing some power late last season finished with 13 bombs and 47 XBH. He may not stick at third and his ceiling is probably that of an above average regualr but he put upa good season at AAA and is athletic enough to find a position to stick at. Red flag: he's not that far removed from a horrendous season in 2006
9. Jharmidy DeJesus 3B SS .309/.376/.530 - Made his debut last season and raked in rookie ball and held his own in the NWL. He struck out in just under 1/4 of his ABs and it was worse than that at Everett, and he has already moved off SS, but should stick at third. But he had good power as an 18 yo and hit over .300. I think he could be a guy that really shoots up this list next year. Wont have to deal with Appleton next year. Clinton is supposedly easier to hit at. 6 months older than Triunfel
10. Dennis Raben OF/1B SS .275/.411/.560 - Started off on fire last year but got injured and tailed off. Decent power and the best patience in the system, though sometimes knocked as having too much patience. He should move quickly as a college draftee and I would think may be in the bigs late 2010 or 2011. coming into 08 was thought to be a top 10 prospect in college baseball, but his 08 was a relative disappointment on a strong Miami team. Loses some value as a 1b. Not fast but a decent outfielder
Just Missed
Luis Valbuena 2B - rebounded big time this season and mabe his ML debut, but should be decent with gap power and would be a defensive upgrade over J Lopez
Mario Martinez 3B - strong last season in the Appy league, bat looks good but defense is a question. Like a lot of young plyers could use more patience, but a guy to keep an eye on next year in full season ball
Gabriel Noreiga SS - hit well in rokkie ball but showed no power, strong defensively but bat will need to showat least a little pop
Rob Johnson C - good season at AAA but it was his third time around. already 25, may be the backup in seattle this year, bat probably doesn't have much more than that in it
Julio Morban CF - big latin american signing this season, his bat is said to be very polished for a 16 yer old, but doesnt have the offensive ceiling of other big time latin OFers of this signing period
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Question
Is this list more about tools or something else? I don’t see Saunders that high on any other list…
question
Saunders this high on a mariners list or overall? I admit M’s bias so I may overrate him a bit but I I don’t think by too much. Maybe more like 50-55. I tried to be balanced with tools/results/age vs level etc
He's been in the discussion in some places.
The system doesn’t have a clear number one at the moment. Some say it’s Aumont, some Saunders, some say it’s Triunfel.
Saunders is probably the safest bet of the bunch because he has the longest track record and seems unlikely to truly bust at this point, though his strikeouts are still higher than anyone wants.
It wasn’t a great year for the system as a whole.
"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett http://mvn.com/marinersminors/
by JY on Nov 4, 2008 12:51 AM EST up reply actions
Triufel is ranked too high, I would drop him down if not further. Your reading too much of Churchill’s content. He had huge make-up problems, showed no power and his hit ability only came alive the final two months. Plus, there’s no way he stays at short…move him to 2B already.
Mario Martinez looks better than DeJesus right now, but they’re comparable.
Noreiga should be getting LOTS of love from Mariner fans in the future. He’s by far the best fielding SS in the system.
How, exactly?
DeJesus had a fantastic review. I like both Martinez and DeJesus, but DeJesus looks to be a much more advanced hitter.
who is jesus guzman?
former mariners prospect…was he mishandled by them?
reached AA ar 21/22…struggled
sent back to high A tore it up
minor league FA, tore up AA in 3rd stint there w/ A’s
now maybe up for a 40 man spot…tearing up winter leagues
Jesus Guzman – OAK
Jesus Guzman went 5-for-5 on Sunday to raise his VWL average to .438.
He’s 28-for-64 with three homers and a 9/10 K/BB ratio while splitting time between second and third. He’s probably not a realistic option at second base in the majors, but he’s making a case to be Oakland’s fallback at the hot corner if Eric Chavez can’t play the position.
Guzman
I would not say that he was rushed. He was at one point considered one of the mariners top prospects but at the begining of 2005 tested positive for steriods in the spring along with several other mariner players. Afterwards, he proceeded to fail to hit for 2 years at AA. If I remember correctly, there were also questions about him being unable to handle advanced pitching, but I cannot verify that at the moment.
by tdot mariner fan on Nov 4, 2008 4:29 PM EST up reply actions
Guzman...
Tool shed is empty. He deserves a lot of credit for making the most out his tools, but he’s the kind of player scouts tell their GMs to stay away from.
In the majors, he’s a decent bench bat who can play the infield corners and maybe 2B if the team’s starter gets hurt mid-game and they have a comfortable lead. I really don’t see him as a regular.
I'd rank Aumont #1
Honestly, I haven’t seen anyone else suggesting that Saunders should be nearly that high. How’s his CF defense? If he’s a plus-plus defender, I can see him being rated that high, but offensively he hasn’t been any better than, say, Fernando Perez. I thought I remembered him being projected as a RF, and if that’s the case, then his stats probably don’t merit him being any higher than third.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
Here...
http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/prospects/rankings/top-100-prospects/2008/266496.html
It’s subscription-only, but Saunders is the only Mariner given consideration for BA’s mid-season top-25, listed as someone who just missed the cut.
I don’t agree (I’d take Halman’s upside at #1 right now) but scout-types like him as the organization’s top prospect.
Luis Valbuena
Is an extremely underated prospect IMO. I see a kid who’s 22, showed good pop and a good eye at both AA and AAA and from what I’ve seen looks really quick at 2b. If the Mariners dealt Jose lopez I would be comfortable with him starting at 2B. I think he should be in the top 5 there.
I agree with Saunders and Aumont, Truinfel I’d just quit listing at all. I still don’t think he’s going to big big leaguer, nor Tui. I’d go higher out on a limb with Raben as well. He’s got the batting eye and natural power. He underachieved at Miami but I think he’s going to be a good major league RF
Wow.
You’re giving up on Triunfel as a major leaguer before his 20th birthday? That’s going a bit too far.
I have
seen him play actually. I went specifically to Pioria to watch him last year. I realize the biggest mistakes can be made when evaluating a player that young but I just don’t see it. i think he’s a mirage and, in particular I see the lack of strikouts as a NEGATIVE, not a positive. He doesn’t have a power swing and he doesn’t have the skills for SS. I see him as a Yuni Betancourt type hitter at 3b and that is not a player. I could be wrong but I wouldn’t risk anything to get him if I had a team.
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