Rays Top 20
Everyone else is doing it, so I figured I'd share my Rays Top-20.
1. David Price- was the #1 overall pick in 2007. You all know the story. Mid-90's fastball that touches 98/99. Devastating slider that reaches 90 and a change that needs work. Stud. Likely the #5 starter next year for the Rays.
2. Tim Beckham- The 2008 #1 overall pick for the Rays. His ceiling is sky high. His actions are praised at SS. He's got a very strong arm. He was consistently the best player at showcase events he attended vs. elite high school competition. He has drawn comparisons to BJ Upton at a similar age, although unlike Bossman, scouts seem sold on him sticking at SS. His swing is raw and was being tweaked during the season and no doubt being worked on during instructs that are currently going on. Despite the raw swing, fear not, his wrists are amazing, which should allow him, once the kinks are worked out to hit for above-average power. He's going to be a good one. Expect him to spend all of next year in Columbus.
3. Wade Davis- has a low-90's fastball with good life that he keeps down in the zone well. His curve is his best pitch. It's a true out pitch. He also throws a cutter and a change-up. However both pitches are inconsistent. He struggles against lefties because of that. Both pitches are developing and have the potential to be above-average pitches. He will spend most of the year in AAA next season working on consistency with those pitches.
4. Jeremy Hellickson- has solid raw stuff, but the real key to his success is his command. He works the thirds of the plate well and his absurd K/BB ratios go to show that. He has a fastball that sits in the low-90's touching 95, with an above-average curveball and an above-average change-up. He doesn't have a true out pitch, but with his command, it hasn't hindered him.
5. Reid Brignac- is a going to be a starter in the big leagues at SS for a long time. It's really amazing how far he's come defensively. Just a couple years ago many questioned his ability to stay at SS, now he's regarded as the best defensive SS in the International league. He's got plus range, hands and arm. That's enough to make you a starter in the big leagues right there (ask Jason Bartlett). But he can hit too. He's got well above-average power for a SS (average power overall, but that power is more valuable at the SS position). He needs a little more work on his pitch selection, but that's not a major concern long term. He'll start in AAA next year, but if he's not traded in the offseason, expect him to be pushing Jason Bartlett for the starting job sooner than later.
6. Jeff Niemann-sits in the low-90's but can reach 98. He has an awesome curve, average slider (this saddens me) and a splitter which is used as his change-up. He doesn't warm up quickly enough to work out of the pen apparently (18minutes SRQ said? Can't remember) and works painfully slow. But his stuff is good and should be a middle of the rotation starter. Next year he'll either be on the roster or traded as he's out of options. I expect him to be traded, but if Kaz really is hurt, he may be our #5 starter.
7. Mitch Talbot-sits in the low-90's with a plus change-up and average curve. Stat heads love him, scouts are meh. He doesn't have great stuff, but his command is very solid. He should be a middle of the rotation starter. Will most likely work out of the pen because of the depth on our roster. Should start next year with the big club.
8. Jake McGee-had Tommy John surgery, out until the middle of 09'. When healthy, he's got a devastating fastball that reaches 100 and sits at 94-96. A very inconsistent curve that has potential. His change also flashes above-average with sink and fade, but again, very inconsistent. Most likely future reliever, at least on this team.
9. Desmond Jennings-His stock has fallen, but man what a toolbox. If he's healthy, he's one of the better prospects in all of baseball, but back injuries scare me. He's had a back, shoulder and leg injury in the last year. When healthy, he was compared to CC. He's got the speed, defense and even better, he's got great strike-zone judgment. Injuries are what is holding him back. We'll see, if he's really healthy, he'll skyrocket up charts again. He's playing at a taxi squad player twice a week in the AFL and reports are he's healthy. If he is, he could be ranked as high as 3 on this list.
10. Matt Moore-Moore was a favorite of yAk of Raysbb.com. I was skeptical of a guy who was repeating Princeton, wondering aloud why a good pitching prospect would repeat such a low league. Well, it turns out I was wrong. Moore is a lefty with a good 92-94 mph fastball touching 95. A good, late breaking curve and a change-up with good tail on it. That's a great start for such a young prospect. He tightened up his command significantly and I wouldn't be shocked if he skipped HV next year and made his debut in full season ball.
11. John Jaso-The dude can hit. Has great strike-zone judgment and can hit for some pop. However seeing Michel Hernandez in a Rays uniform tells me the AFRO are far from sold on his catching ability. I'm not buying he's that bad, but we'll see. His caught stealing percentages have gotten better so he may be able to stick. He's getting old and the Rays are going to have to do something with him soon.
12. Nick Barnese-throws a hard, low-90's fastball that bores down causing hitters to pound the ball into the ground. His curve an change aren't there yet, but that fastball is what's going to carry him anyway. He has middle of the rotation potential and will definitely be in full season ball next year.
13. Fernando Perez- I've never been that high on him until seeing him play. I'm not sure he'll be a regular. He strikes out a lot, but you cannot teach speed. And this man has speed. Lots and lots of speed. Nando has a little pop and good plate discipline. His outfield defense is plus. His arm is minus. I moved him up a lot after seeing him play. I really, really like this guy and hope he's on the team next year.
14. Alex Cobb-is another ground ball pitcher. His ceiling is limited, but he's got good command of his fastball (88-91), curve and splitter (which is his change-up). His stuff isn't special, but his ability to get ground balls at an extremely high rate makes him a very solid prospect.
15. Heath Rollins-Has been compared to Kevin Slowey of the Twins because they both have less than stellar stuff and both went to Winthrop. But Heath Rollins is no Kevin Slowey. Kevin Slowey is a rich mans Andy Sonnanstine. Heath's fastball tops out at about 91 and none of his offspeed stuff is above-average. He does have pretty good command of his pitches and is likely a future middle reliever or back-end journeyman. He could go Andy Sonnanstine on us, but it's unlikely. Guys like that are rare.
16. Justin Ruggiano-dominated AAA this season, but looked overmatched at the plate in the big leagues. It's not fair to write him off based on that, but he strikes out a lot and is not likely to hit for much of an average in the big leagues. I know we hate average, but it matters when you're not a walks machine. He's solid in the outfield, but his lack of a plus tool anywhere will likely limit him to a role player or fringe starter on a marginal team.
17. Kyle Lobstien- Ceiling. He's a tall lefty with projection in his frame. Had he progressed like scouts had hoped, he would not have reached the Rays in the 2nd round. He's all about projection. He's shown a good curve and change-up. How good those become likely depends on how much velocity he gains. He sat at 87 much of the spring during his high school season. He has touched 92 in the past. If he gains velocity as expected, he could skyrocket up prospect charts. Extra velocity will help tighten his breaking pitch, making him even better.
18. James Houser-pitched very in the beginning of the season. However a knee injury really sapped his velocity. By the end of the season he was only touching the mid-80's. If he doesn't regain his velocity, he will not be a prospect, but at the end of 2007, he was sitting in the upper-80's and touching 92. As a lefty with solid command and a good breaking pitch, he can get by with that. It all depends on health.
19. Ryan Reid-absolutely obliterated the FSL, with a 15/1 K/BB ratio. That ratio fell apart upon his promotion to AA. His strike-out stuff was still there, but his command was not. It could have been adjusting to the league or it could be that he was feasting on inexperienced hitters in High-A. He's a reliever without a huge ceiling, but has an above-average fastball and slider. That should make him a big leaguer.
20. Ty Morrison-is a guy who might not hit for a while. His only real present tool is his speed and he is fast. He's got a good arm and plays a solid CF. His swing is pretty, he's tall and lanky with a ton of room to fill out. He's got pretty good raw power, however that hasn't shown up in games yet. He will take a while to develop, but has the underlying tools to develop into a starter in the big leagues someday. He's really not our 20th best prospect, but it's my list and I like toolsy guys, so he gets to stay!
Honorable mention:
Ed Morlan RHP
KD Kang OF
Reid Fronk OF/3B
Jake Jefferies C
Ryan Royster OF
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13 comments
Comments
Nice List
Nice details, very informative. Ive been looking for info on moore and barnese. very nice
by FishHead on Nov 3, 2008 3:35 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
If Rollin's curve/slider
still looks anything like it did in college than it can be an average MLB pitch, maybe a little better. I think you’re underselling his breaking stuff a little.
His outstanding athleticism and feel for the game help too.
Talbot’s stuff will play in the MLB (the fastball is solid, the change is super and hes gutsy and has good command) I’m just sure what role will suit him best.
by nms on Nov 3, 2008 4:12 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I agree Talbot's stuff plays at the big league level.
I said he’s likely to be in our pen next year. His ceiling is a middle of the rotation starter, but on this team, he doesn’t crack the rotation. He’s probably 4th or 5th in line long term for the 5th starter job.
Rollins is a great athlete(would have been drafted as an outfielder if he wasn’t drafted as a pitcher for those who didn’t know) and his pitchability is probably going to get him to the big leagues, but unless his breaking pitch can consistently get swings an misses, I don’t think he has a ceiling much more than a journeyman back-end starter/middle reliever.
Tools Whore
Sign Bonds!
by Tyler on Nov 3, 2008 5:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Albert Suarez
seems conspicuously missing, if you’re going to include someone like Morrisson whose ranking is based entirely on tools and guesswork. Suarez at least throws a 95 mph heater and had a good K/BB ratio in rookie ball, more than can be said for Morrison.
Mine (without as much thought or explanation as Tyler):
1) David Price
2) Jeremy Hellickson
3) Wade Davis
4) Tim Beckham
5) Reid Brignac
6) Desmond Jennings
7) Fernando Perez
8) Jeff Niemann
9) Nick Barnese
10) Jake McGee
11) Matt Moore
12) John Jaso
13) Mitch Talbot
14) Heath Rollins
15) Alex Cobb
16) Kyle Lobstein
17) KD Kang
18) Albert Suarez
19) James Houser
20) Elias Otero
Vogt early, Vogt often.
by Brickhaus on Nov 3, 2008 5:30 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I don't know why
But I like Elias Otero. I’ll be watching his numbers closely next year.
by Grudyfan on Nov 3, 2008 5:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
morlan
LOVED this guy with minnesota….wonder what happened to his K rate this year….
Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results.
by biggentleben on Nov 3, 2008 7:29 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Stuff=gone
He’s was topping out at 92. And he wasn’t there regularly, he was sitting in the upper-80’s.
Tools Whore
Sign Bonds!
by Tyler on Nov 3, 2008 7:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Nice list
though I’m not sure we’ll see Price touching 98-99 as a starter. According to fangraphs, his average fastball this season in the majors was about 94, and that was while he was working as a reliever. I would expect him to lose a few ticks as a starter. Should still be damn nasty though.
http://mvn.com/milb-yankees/
by lemonjello on Nov 3, 2008 7:37 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Probably not regularly, but he'll still reach back and touch it every once in a while.
He was in the 93 range during his big league start touched 97. I expect that would be where he’s as a starter.
Tools Whore
Sign Bonds!
by Tyler on Nov 3, 2008 7:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Most of his innings during the regular season came in a long situation
More like a start. 5.1 of his 8.2 innings came in a single long relief outing. You’re right though, his velocity will generally be lower as a starter, but it’s nice to know he can reach up there if a big situation comes up and he needs to.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
by Brickhaus on Nov 4, 2008 12:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
position players over pitchers
Brignac has to be higher than Hellickson. No big dif, I’d just flip them, but a guy described, correctly, as a long-term starting SS (and has a pretty decent ceiling, what’s more) has got to be more highly regarded than a pitcher who doesn’t have overwhelming stuff, and has such a high risk of being injured (as do all pitchers).
by scooter on Nov 3, 2008 8:11 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I evaluate Hellickson higher than Tyler anyway
But while he doesn’t have overwhelming stuff, he does have three plus pitches and he does get his fair share of strikeouts. On the other hand, I wouldn’t predict Brignac to necessarily be an above-average starter at shortstop, while you can easily project Hellickson as a #2/#3 starter type. Unless you mark down all pitchers, Hellickson doesn’t have any particular injury concerns. He hasn’t been hurt at all since signing, and his one big injury in high school (which was part of the reason he was a 4th rounder and not a 1st or 2nd rounder) was a freak accident, where he missed a year with a broken shoulderblade.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
by Brickhaus on Nov 4, 2008 12:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That's not entirely true. He did have a bit of a shoulder injury that caused him to miss some time.
Not serious and didn’t require surgery or cost him any of his stuff. I don’t remember what year it was though. 06 or 07. It’s not a concern going forward, but he did has a slight hiccup.
Although I agree with the general sentiment of your post. While Brignac’s ceiling is very high, there is also a 30% chance he’s an all glove no stick SS that hits .250/.300/.370 (low SLG because of average). I think the chance Hellickson becomes a consistent upper 3 ERA guy is pretty high at this point assuming good health, which is why I have him higher.
Tools Whore
Sign Bonds!
by Tyler on Nov 4, 2008 1:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

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